Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison is projecting Groupe Dynamite Inc. (GRGD-T) to more than the double its earnings per share year-over-year when it reports its fourth-quarter 2025 results later this month, believing “brand strength/pricing, new store openings/repositioning, and e-commerce growth are driving outsized top line growth, and in turn operating leverage.”
“We forecast this algorithm to continue, that we believe could lead to upside to the consensus Q4/F25 and F2026 outlook,” he added. “This along with strong FCF generation continues to justify its premium valuation.”
Mr. Morrison said his confidence in the Montreal-based clothing retailer’s ability to maintain its growth momentum has been reinforced by recent channel checks, credit card data and a increase to its full-year 2025 guidance in January. He’s now estimated quarterly earnings per share of 68 cents, jumping from 33 cents a year ago and exceeding the consensus on the Street by 3 cents.
“We forecast revenue growth of 39 per cent year-over-year, with its open-to-buy strategy and on-trend product offering supporting pricing power/higher AUR [average unit retail], underpinning our 31-per-cent SSSG [same-store sales growth] forecast,” the analyst said. “This should be aided by its ongoing real estate strategy (U.S. expansion, store relocation/uptiering) and eCommerce growth. Together, this should drive gross margin expansion/operating leverage from scale.”
“Sustaining its attractive growth outlook in F2026 should be the focal point of its release, especially given its 2025 share price performance (up 324 per cent) and multiple re-rate from its IPO. It is our view that while the year-over-year rate of EPS growth is bound to slow, that its key drivers of growth remain positive that could lead to upside potential to the pre-quarter sell side expectations. Furthermore, we expect strong FCF generation ($250-million) that provides options with respect to surplus capital allocation.”
Emphasizing Groupe Dynamite’s “growth algorithm appears on-track that should generate at least mid-teen revenue growth” through the catalysts that “include store openings/repositions (including international), high single-digits SSSG (pricing/improved store economics entering comp/on-trend driving traffic and basket), and double-digit growth in eCommerce,” Mr. Morrison bumped his target for its shares to $100 from $97, keeping a “buy” rating, citing “modest” upward financial revisions to his outlook. The average target is $102, according to LSEG data.
“Should this take place, it should further improve investor confidence, that along with surplus capital, the potential for a heightened float, and nearing of index inclusion, bode well for future share price appreciation in our view,” he said.
“Groupe Dynamite Inc. has positioned itself for attractive EBITDA/EPS growth over our forecast horizon. We believe it has a number of key growth drivers in place that should enable the company to grow its top-line and take market share. This includes heightened expansion into the U.S. market, an elevated open-to-buy strategy, repositioning stores into top-tier locations, and operational leverage from its proprietary innovation and scale. With heightened visibility/confidence upon its growth drivers/outlook we are increasingly constructive upon our mid-term outlook for GDI. We view our applied target multiple of 30.0 times fiscal 2027 estimated EPS as appropriate, that is in-line with the upper-end of its high-growth/high-margin fast fashion peers.”
Following “another strong set of results” for Canada’s Big 6 Banks, all of which beat the Street’s earnings expectations, CIBC World Markets analyst Paul Holden says “near-term momentum and macro conditions suggest next quarter should also be strong.”
“However, valuation multiples remain more than 2 standard deviations above the 10-year average,” he added. “We recommend trimming on strength and adding to lifecos based on the relative spread.”
In a client report released Thursday, Mr. Holden adjusted his assumptions to reflect " i) higher impaired PCLs vs. our prior assumptions, still improving vs. H1-26 but at a slower pace; and ii) slower loan growth in H2/F26, specifically in Canada.“
“We have increased our target multiple for the group from 12.8 times to 13.0 times in consideration of multiple expansion for the group (13.4 times on NTM [next 12-month] consensus),” he said “We continue to assume some degree of multiple compression for the sector and have not changed relative premiums/discounts for each bank price target.
“Key industry themes. We discuss five key themes ... 1) ROE expansion; 2) strength in capital markets; 3) continued tailwinds for NIM; 4) credit losses; and 5) positive operating leverage. Our main takeaway from these themes is this: conditions remain conducive to strong earnings growth, potential upside to consensus EPS, and ongoing ROE expansion. Changing macro conditions could take away from share price momentum, but the near-term earnings outlook remains positive, in our view.”
Calling National Bank of Canada (NA-T) “the big winner coming out of the quarter,” Mr. Holden raised his target for its shares to $196 from $193 with an “outperformer” rating. The average on the Street is $191.09.
"NA was the best-performing stock during the week of earnings," he explained. “We do not attribute this to the magnitude of the beat, which was in line with the group, but rather to the increase in its F2026 ROE target, new disclosure on the F2027 ROE bridge, and an upsized NCIB. F2027 consensus EPS estimates increased 3 per cent. We think there is still more left on the table as consensus is not quite giving full credit for a 17-per-cent ROE, in our view, and NA has a history of operating above a 17-per-cent ROE. We also like NA thematically, with a trading business that benefits from equity market volatility and proportionally lower exposure to Ontario (where consumer stress is highest).”
- Bank of Montreal (BMO-T, “outperformer”) to $211 from $209. Average: $209.63.
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, “neutral”) to $109 from $108. Average: $112.55.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T, “neutral”) to $142 from $140. Average: $147.99.
His target for Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T, “neutral”) remains $242, remaining under the $253 average.
Following largely in-line results in Canada Packers Inc.’s (CPKR-T) first quarter as a publicly traded company, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel acknowledged “commodity price volatility will inevitably and always be an element of the CPKR story/financial results.”
However, she reiterated her view of the company, which focuses on the pork operations of Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI-T) after being spun off into a stand-alone company, as “a high-quality business with strong FCF/conversion, capital-light opportunity to close a capacity utilization gap, and with the inaugural $0.23/share/Q initial annual dividend, a relatively attractive yield of 5.0 per cent.”
Its shares rose 2.7 per cent on Wednesday after it reported results that Ms. Nattel called “solid,” including adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $46.3-million, narrowly exceeding her $45.2-million estimate. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of 63 cents was 3 cents above the analyst’s projection.
“Key elements of CPKR’s strategy that drive our forecasts and thesis include, i) leveraging its vertically coordinated model, premium product portfolio, ii) increasing throughput by 2-3 per cent annually, iii) optimizing mix/margin, and iv) applying FCF in a balanced fashion to reduce debt despite current leverage 1.8 times at/slightly below targeted leverage 2.0 times, and return of capital to shareholders primarily in the form of dividend,” she added. “Medium term, CPKR will look to selective M&A of accretive, easy to execute/integrate modest scale asset.”
Keeping her “sector perform” rating for Canadian Packers shares, Ms. Nattel raised her target to $22 from $20, which is the current average, pointing to “lower forecasted debt levels as deleveraging occurring faster than anticipated.”
“Our financial forecasts, valuation and price target are predicated on pork markets returning to historical levels and seasonal patterns through 2026/27,” she explained. “Our target multiple 5.5 times is approximately a 1.5 times discount to the closest North American peer, Smithfield Foods (NASDAQ: SFD; not rated), reflecting relative market cap, limited float, and lack of a track record as a publicly traded entity. Our target multiple is toward the mid-point of the valuation range for commodity processing companies across sectors. Catalysts to become more constructive include: i) leveraging premiumization strategy to help buffer commodity-related volatility, ii) execution of modest growth agenda, and iii) successful delivery of consistent, visible earnings.”
Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Michael Van Aelst hiked his target to $24 from $20 with a “buy” rating.
“Q4 benefited from 2-per-cent greater processing volumes, improving on-farm operations and favorable market conditions. Our forecasts are relatively unchanged, but upside exists if hedges do not nullify the attractive futures curve. With a 15-per-cent FCF yield and peer valuations moving up, we feel CPKR’s current 5.2 times EV/EBITDA multiple is looking relatively conservative,” said Mr. Van Aelst.
SSR Mining Inc.‘s (SSRM-T) sale of its 80-per-cent ownership stake in the Çöpler mine and related properties in Türkiye to Cengiz Holding A.S for US$1.5-billion removes a notable “overhang” for the Denver-based company, according to National Bank Financial analyst Don DeMarco.
Raising his rating for SSR shares, which soared 14.7 per cent on Wednesday following the announcement of the “walkaway deal,” to an “overperform” from “sector perform” previously, Mr. DeMarco said the agreement has many benefits moving forward, including “restart timing uncertainty; risk of ongoing liabilities or a potentially sizable fine; removes the ongoing annual care and maintenance and remediation outlay, with FY26G at $80-100-million; mitigates company reputation or other impediments that might weigh on the continued operation of the mine.”
“We view counterparty risk as low with the buyer privately held Cengiz Holding A.S., one of Türkiye’s largest industrial companies with operations spanning copper, gold and aluminum mining and processing, with 45k employees and 28 operations across Europe,“ said Mr. DeMarco. ”It has the cash to fund the deal, the deal is not contingent on financing, and it has paid a $100-million deposit."
“Visibility for a valuation uptick on improved jurisdictional complexion as a diversified, Americas focused 500k GEO/yr producer. FY26G 493k GEO midpoint weighted 65 per cent in the U.S., 21-per-cent Argentina and 13-per-cent Canada.”
Viewing the transaction “favourably” and emphasizing further potential gains as SSRM conducts a strategic review of its remaining platform in Türkiye, including a 20-per-cent earned interest in the Hod Maden, Mr. DeMarco hiked his target for SSR shares to $57 from $43. The average on the Street is $47.88.
Elsewhere, BMO’s Kevin O’Halloran upgraded SSR Mining to “outperform” from “market perform” with a $41 target, rising from $27.
“The sale price is over 3 times our $472-million NAV, and importantly the sale in our view removes an overhang on the stock driven by uncertainty surrounding a restart at Cöpler. The deal significantly strengthens SSR’s balance sheet and focuses the portfolio on the Americas, where SSR has recently grown with last year’s acquisition of CC&V. We expect shares will revalue to reflect a reduced risk profile; our target rises to $41,” said Mr. O’Halloran.
National Bank Financial analyst Zachary Evershed sees “Nation Building and defence tailwinds gathering” for Dexterra Group Inc. (DXT-T), touting an “attractive entry with or without federal spending.”
“Management expects Support Services to continue delivering mid-single digit revenue growth over time, supported by strong activity in U.S. IFM. Asset Based Services revenue is expected to grow in the low-single digits, albeit with some lumpiness due to camp mobilization timing,” he said in a client note. “While management acknowledged growing tailwinds, our forecasts do not yet include any assumed wins in the Nation Building and defence arenas, leaving substantial upside potential as the industry expects near-term opportunities to come to fruition in late 2026, with a spectrum of projects thereafter in 2027 and 2028.”
While Mr. Evershed sees “steady 2026 growth, Nation Building and defence upside,” investors took a less enthusiastic view of the Mississauga-based facility management services provider’s fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, sending its shares lower by 8.5 per cent on Wednesday. Adjusted earnings per share slid 37.1 per cent year-over-year to 12 cents, missing the 18-cent estimate of both Mr. Ervsjed and the Street despite in-line revenue results as share based compensation weighed.
“With approximately 22k beds under management and combined utilization on 12k owned beds (including Right Choice) in the high-80s, DXT has available capacity to pursue mega projects,” he said. “Availability can be further stretched through incremental rationalization in the Montney/Duvernay region, as beds are released when projects conclude, and even through purchase and refurbishment of equipment in the market.”
Reiterating his “outperform” rating for Dexterra shares, Mr. Evershed raised his target by $1 to $16.50. The average is $15.25.
“Dexterra’s ABS peers have benefited from a step-up in valuation, with the company’s closest comps in the space seeing EV/EBITDA rise 2 times in the past 12 months,” he explained. “DXT has also rerated, closing the multiple gap somewhat, but continues to trade in the bottom quartile of peers, despite a steady pace of operational improvement that has shifted the narrative from a show-me story to one of continued execution over the past two years, translating to top quartile return metrics.
“With a supportive, strong FCF yield, we therefore raise the ABS multiple used in our sum-of-parts valuation methodology to 7 times, (was 6 times), seeing our target rise to $16.50 (was $15.50). Our target is equivalent to a 7.7-per-cent FCF yield and can be replicated in our long-term DCF using a 13.0% discount rate. We reiterate our Outperform rating as DXT continues to execute and deliver consistent results, and it remains our #2 pick for 2026.”
Elsewhere, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Chris Murray raised his target to $13.75 from $12 with an “outperform” rating.
“DXT’s Q4/25 results were generally in line on a segment basis, with meaningful contributions from recently acquired Right Choice and PVC, offsetting a softer (like-for-like) margin profile in Support Services and revenue generation in ABS. Management confirmed expectations for both segments to deliver typical levels of organic growth and margin performance in 2026, given elevated occupancy rates with increasing public support for defence and large-scale infrastructure remaining a tailwind over the medium term. While shares re-rated in 2025, we continue to see value in DXT with the balance sheet and FCF profile providing support for M&A and buybacks,” said Mr. Murray.
Desjardins Securities analyst Bryce Adams views Hudbay Minerals Inc.’s (HBM-T)) US$1.48-billion deal to buy the remaining shares in Arizona Sonoran Copper Co. (ASCU-T) “positively,” seeing net asset value accretive while strengthening its Arizona district alongside Copper World “and offers identifiable synergies, while preserving balance sheet flexibility via an all-share structure and sequenced development.”
In a note released before the bell, Mr. Adams moved Arizona Sonoran to “tender” from “hold” with a $8.50 from $8, while he maintained a “buy” rating and $40 target for Hudbay. The averages on the Street are $7.92 and $39.83, respectively.
“We expect near-term EBITDA (per share) and EPS dilution as we model Cactus production from 2031, but we see an enhanced longer-term growth profile, with Cueq production per share up 22 per cent once Cactus reaches steady state,” said Mr. Adams. “Our base case Cactus NPV10% is US $2.2-billion (at US$5.69/lb Cu).”
In reaction to recent share price appreciation, Raymond James analyst Luke Davis lowered his rating for Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” previously.
“Baytex’s quarter was punctuated by the $3-billion sale of its U.S. Eagle Ford assets, marking the company’s transformation into a Duvernay/heavy oil focused growth company with a meaningful net cash position,” he said. “Though the disposition created some noise during the quarter, headline metrics were largely pre-released; further, we think investors were more concerned with buyback cadence and operational results in the Duvernay which continue to impress.
“We think the story is resonating with investors, demonstrated by a 40-per-cent increase in share price since we upgraded the stock, however we are moving to Market Perform given the run while awaiting a sustained shift in fundamental value through operational execution and efficiency improvements.”
Mr. Davis maintained a $5.50 target for Baytex shares. The average is $5.19.
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* TD Cowen’s Menno Hulshof to $5.50 from $5 with a “hold” rating.
“Financial results were released following a Feb. 2 ops and reserves update. CEO succession announced, but not entirely surprising given BTE’s pure Canadian focus following the Eagle Ford dispo. BTE remains in very good hands post transition, in our view. Accelerated NCIB now 45 per cent complete, up from 26 per cent in early Feb. FFOPS effectively in line after adjustments,” said Mr. Hulshof.
* National Bank’s Dan Payne to $5.75 from $5 with an “outperform” rating.
“A sound conclusion to the year, while its reoriented business and optimized returns with near-term shareholder value catalysts (principally through buybacks), should continue to support sentiment for the stock; BTE is poised for a 7-per-cent return profile (vs. peers 12 per cent) on leverage of negative 1.1 times (vs. peers 1.0 times), while trading at 4.7 times 2027 estimated EV/DACF [enterprise value to debt-adjusted cash flow] (vs. peers 4.6 times),” said Mr. Payne.
In a client note released before the bell titled Solid As Ever, RBC’s Head of Global Energy Research Greg Pardy said Vermilion Energy Inc.’s (VET-T) fourth-quarter 2025 results “reflect ongoing improvement in the quality of its cash flow generation and progress towards reestablishing its premium framework characterized by abundant free cash.”
On Wednesday, the Calgary-based company’s shares rose 0.8 per cent after it funds from operations per share of $1.55, exceeding Mr. Pardy’s $1.33 estimate and the consensus projection of $1.34. Production of 121,308 barrels of oil equivalent also topped expectations (119,147 boe/d and 120,212 boe/d, respectively).
“Vermilion Energy delivered solid fourth-quarter results, slightly higher production volumes of 121,308 boe/d, lower unit operating costs of $11.86, and a current tax recovery of $17.2 million which drove its bottom line,” the analyst said.
“The company reaffirmed its 2026 budget which points towards mid-point production of 120,000 boe/d (118,000-122,000 boe/d) (30-per-cent oil & liquids) anchored by a mid-point capital program of $615 million ($600-$630 million). Vermilion’s first-quarter production is expected to average 122,000-124,000 boe/d (70-per-cent natural gas), modestly exceeding our prior estimate of 119,250 boe/d.”
Keeping a “sector perform” rating for Vermilion shares, Mr. Pardy increased his target to $15 from $14, exceeding the $13.66 average.
“Under futures pricing, Vermilion is trading at a 2026 debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 3.3 times (vs. our Canadian intermediate E&P peer group avg. of 5.5 times) and a free cash flow yield of 14 per cent (vs. our peer group at 9 per cent),” he added. “In our minds, Vermilion should trade at a discount valuation vis-à-vis our peer group, reflective of its relatively shallow decline rate, modest shareholder returns, strengthening balance sheet, and highly diversified portfolio.”
Elsewhere, Citing “strong” year-to-date outperformance and a modest return to his target ($16, up from $14), TD Cowen’s Menno Hulshof downgraded Vermilion to “hold” from “buy” previously.
“Material portfolio streamlining achieved, balance sheet deleveraging ongoing,” he said. “Risks to our downgrade include stronger-than-forecast FCF inflection in 2028+ and persistently higher commodity prices.
“Arguably less catalyst-rich through 2028+, but then FCF inflection should kick-in: FCF inflection is likely to be driven by declining Montney infra spending, Germany gas growth, and perhaps higher sustained commodity prices. Additional country exits may be considered (France, Australia, etc.), but management, to-date, has played this down. The potentially accretive acquisition of an ~10mboe/d onshore Euro gas package may prove more challenging, given a turbulent Euro gas market (Iran conflict) and what it could mean for perceived value. In the absence of inorganic growth, we model 3-per-cent production per share growth in 2026 and 4 per cent in 2027.”
In a separate report, Mr. Pardy increased his target for Parex Resources Inc. (PXT-T) to $23 from $20 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Parex finished 2025 off on its front foot operationally, with a couple of irons in the fire when it comes to strategic moves involving GeoPark and Frontera Energy. We are maintaining a Sector Perform recommendation on Parex and have moved our one-year target price to $23 per share pending the outcome of these strategic moves,” he said.
In other analyst actions:
* In response to in-line fourth-quarter 2025 results, Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch bumped his Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH-T) target to $9 from $8.25 with a “hold” rating. The average on the Street is $8.67.
“Although the company continues to demonstrate the strength of its business model with clear visibility toward low-decline growth opportunities, reinforced by shareholder-friendly capital allocation, we remain cautious in view of recent outperformance,” said Mr. MacCulloch. “Bottom line, we continue to see more attractive opportunities elsewhere in the Canadian energy sector.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar bumped his target for Automotive Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (APR.UN-T) to $13 from $12.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $12.38.
“4Q results were slightly ahead of expectations, as APR capped off a prolific acquisition year. The business continues to generate steady, durable cash flow growth, with no impact from the ongoing trade disputes. This is being positively augmented by an uptick in acquisition activity, which we expect to continue in 2026. We forecast a 6-per-cent FFOPU CAGR [funds from operations per unit compound annual growth rate] (2025–27) and see upside to the extent acquisitions exceed our expectations. We do not believe this growth is appropriately reflected in the current valuation,” said Mr. Kalmar.
* Following “solid” fourth-quarter results and expressing enthusiasm for potential data centre expansions in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM), which is the United States’ biggest power market, National Bank’s Patrick Kenny bumped his target for Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T) to $75 from $74 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $76.33.
“Based on changes to our estimates, our target nudges up $1 to $75 while the company continues to execute on extending its U.S. asset contracts for longer duration on attractive terms, while also working towards finalizing its 250 MW Alberta data center MOU agreement. Combined with a $78 SOTP [sum-of-the-parts] valuation, we maintain our OP rating ahead of further upside potential from PJM data centre expansion opportunities related to the RBA, expected by September,” said Mr. Kenny.
* Emphasizing “its existing portfolio alone boasts a mid-teens FCF yield, marking a compelling entry point, on top of which the growth potential from new deployments provides significant optionality,” National Bank’s Zachary Evershed bumped his DRI Healthcare Trust (DHT.UN-T) target to $22.50 from $21 with an “outperform” rating, while Stifel’s Justin Keywood raised his target by $1 to $21 with a “buy” rating. The average is $20.50.
“DHT outlined their next five-year aspirations, targeting $800-1,000 million in deployed capital and an Adj. EBITDA CAGR [compound annual growth rate] in the low-teens through 2030 (2021-2025 CAGR: 13 per cent),” he said. “Contextualizing the new deployment aspiration (2025 target: $1.25 billion), management noted its prior guide was made whilst the balance sheet was underlevered and that a quick flip on the T-Zield royalty also helped to boost historicals. Where DHT lands in the range also depends on the mix of pre-approval deals vs. commercialized deals: the former have more attractive return profiles, but lack historical cash flows to underwrite and thus, are difficult to lever up as quickly given DHT’s financing structure. Ultimately, a higher mix of pre-approvals could see DHT hit the lower end of the range, though returns per dollar deployed would be higher vs. the alternative.”
* RBC’s Paul Treiber increased his target for Evertz Technologies Ltd. (ET-T) by $1 to $16 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Thanos Moschopoulos to $17.50 from $15 with an “outperform” rating and Raymond James’ Steven Li to $18 from $14 with an “outperform” rating. The average target is $15.
“Evertz reported Q3 adj. EBITDA and adj. EPS above RBC and consensus. While total revenue missed our estimate, software & services revenue was healthy, up 12 per cent year-over-year, above our expectations. Additionally, backlog rose sequentially, implying solid bookings,” said Mr. Treiber.
* In a note titled East or West(on), home is best, RBC’s Irene Nattel raised her target for George Weston Ltd. (WN-T) to $117 from $115 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s John Zamparo to $106 from $100 with a “sector perform” rating and BMO’s Étienne Ricard to $103 from $98 with a “market perform” rating The average is $115.33.
“Our constructive outlook on WN is predicated on our favourable outlook for 52.6-per-cent-owned Loblaw, augmented by share buyback funded in large part through participation in L NCIB. Current discount to NAV 19 per cent wider than the long-term average and holdco discount embedded in our NAV,” Ms. Nattel said.
* RBC’s Rob Mann moved his target for Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE-T) to $8 from $6.50 with a “sector perform” rating, while Raymond James’ Luke Davis moved his target to $9 from $8 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $7.75.
“Gran Tierra announced its fourth-quarter results last night which appeared somewhat mixed primarily driven by a revenue deferral due to a large inventory build in Ecuador which was recognized in January. The company remains intently focused on free cash flow generation and ongoing net debt reduction this year, with prudent steps taken in recent months in regard to strengthening the balance sheet. We are maintaining a Sector Perform, Speculative Risk, rating on Gran Tierra and raising our one-year price target ... on modestly increased multiples,” said Mr. Mann.
* Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay raised his Kits Eyecare Ltd. (KITS-T) target to $25 from $23 with a “buy” rating. The average is $24.13.
“KITS is simultaneously delivering solid near-term financial performance (stellar revenue growth, with positive profitability and cash flow) and making marketing investments to attract and retain the right customers who will keep the company on the path to its longer-term revenue and margin goals,” said Mr. Tremblay.
* Scotia Capital’s Jonathan Goldman moved his Linamar Corp. (LNR-T) target to $99 from $98 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison to $114 from $103 with a “buy” rating and Raymond James’ Michael Glen to $100 from $85 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $98.50.
“LNR shares are up 90 per cent in the LTM [last 12 months], but are still relatively inexpensive trading at 3.7 times EV/EBITDA on our 2026/2027 estimates compared to MGA [Magna International] at 5.2 times,” said Mr. Goldman. “The discount is in-line with the 5-year average, but LNR has a lot of things going for it: 1) superior Mobility margins (back to 2019 levels vs. MGA 100 basis points below); 2) significant new business wins (NA CPV up 19 per cent year-over-year in 4Q); 3) continued outperformance in Access (2025 unit volumes up 12 per cent vs. industry down 19 per cent); 4) Ag markets at trough (see DE-US 1Q26 commentary); 5) significant FCF generation ($830 million in 2025); and 6) capital optionality (net debt to EBITDA of 0.8 times including recent acquisitions) with a ‘pipeline of distressed opportunities’. We remain on the sidelines (for now), primarily due to an auto sector call as we see downside to industry volumes in conjunction with USMCA overhang.”
* In a report titled Transformed and Positioned for Execution of Low-Capex Growth, Stifel’s Ingrid Rico initiated coverage of Minera Alamos Inc. (MAI-X) with a “buy” rating and $9.50 target, matching the average.
“Following two M&A transactions completed in 2025, MAI has been transformed from a primarily Mexican junior producer to a more U.S.-centric gold miner with the Pan Mine being the pillar of current cash flow. Through a sequence of feasible, mostly brownfield, and considerably capex de-risked mine developments that take advantage of existing infrastructure, Minera Alamos is positioned to become a 165koz producer by 2029. We believe executing on a low-capex growth strategy should drive re-rate from growing cash flow and setting the foundations to evolve into a mid-tier gold producer. MAI screens as a value-attractive name (2.0 times on 2028 P/CF and approx. 41-per-cent 2028 FCF yield) with a path over the next 12-18 months to further de-risk and begin to execute on construction of two of its three development growth projects,” she said.
* RBC’s Ken Herbert hiked his MDA Space Ltd. (MDA-T) target to $50, exceeding the $46.25 average, from $38 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Thanos Moschopoulos to $50 from $45 with an “outperform” rating, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ David McFadgen to $51 from $45.50 with an “outperform” rating, Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $51 from $48 with a “buy” rating and Stifel’s Greg MacDonald to $57 from $48 with a “buy” rating.
“MDA Space reported 4Q25 sales of $499-million, up 44 per cent year-over-year and 6 per cent ahead of consensus. Adj. EBITDA was also strong in 4Q25 at $96.2-million beating by 11 per cent with margins 80 bps better as well. MDA’s outlook for 2026 bracketed consensus with $1.8-billion in revenue and $343-million in EBITDA (19.1-per-cent margins) at the respective midpoints. Management highlighted a $40-billion pipeline with a new focus on defense contract opportunities, which we believe resonated with investors. We see upside to the 2026 guide, and see incremental contract awards as key potential catalysts,” said Mr. Herbert.
* Seeing NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T) offering exposure to a Tier-1 project (Rook I) with significant exploration upside, UBS initiated coverage with a “buy” rating and $20 target, exceeding the $19.25 average.
* Raymond James’ Steven Li lowered his Tecsys Inc. (TCS-T) target to $40 from $50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $28.75.
“F3Q26 organic growth exc. hardware sustained double-digit (11-per-cent) organic growth (4 quarters in a row = positive). In addition, strong KPIs from Elite SaaS ARR growth as well as RIF impact to benefit margins next fiscal year (F2027),” said Mr. Li.
* Raymond James’ Luke Davis increased his target for Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU-T) to $72 from $69 with a “market perform” rating, while ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Patrick O’Rourke reduced his target to $73 from $74 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $68.88.
“Tourmaline’s fourth quarter was generally as expected, with the Peace River sale, capital trim, and ongoing cost optimization initiatives adding to the coffers after an unseasonably warm winter and outages at LNG Canada kept a tight lid on regional gas pricing. The company’s updated outlook frees up roughly $400 million in 2026 capital to backfill the base dividend, which is not currently covered at our price deck, and while we do not currently model any specials, management’s relentless focus on cost optimization is bearing fruit and will likely free up room longer-term; we expect continued improvements as the NEBC complex is fully built out,” said Mr. Davis.
* TD Cowen’s Vince Valentini cut his target for VerticalScope Holdings Inc. (FORA-T) to $3 from $4 with a “hold” rating. The average is $4.58.
“Management is pointing to some green shoots with sequential revenue growth (despite meaningful year-over-year declines that were worse than expected) and new business development (the annualized AI service EBITDA), but we believe investors will need to see a lot more evidence of net year-over-year gains in key metrics (MAU, revenue, EBITDA) before the publicly traded valuation of this stock can meaningfully recover,” said Mr. Valentini.