Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY-T) remains a bright spot in the Canadian natural gas landscape, reflecting its peer-leading cost structure and robust hedge book which underpin its dividend and debt repayment, said Desjardins analyst Chris MacCulloch.
The analyst raised his price target on Peyto to C$31 from C$27 alongside positive estimate revisions.
“In an environment defined by depressed AECO prices and wavering sentiment for Canadian natural gas producers, PEY stands out as a source of consistency and operational dependability,” Mr. MacCulloch told clients in a note. “The flexibility embedded in its capital program is a function of disciplined execution, a low-cost operating model and a robust hedge book that has helped shield the company from acute commodity price volatility. This dynamic was on full display last summer as PEY executed its development plan while continuing to gradually trim debt levels, even when AECO prices turned negative.”
“With a similar foundation in place for 2026, history could very well repeat itself. Beyond near-term organic growth plans, we continue to believe that enhanced scale through M&A could complement PEY’s longer-term strategy,” he said.
Desjardins continues to rate the stock a “buy”.
The average analyst price target is C$28.18, according to S&P Capital IQ.
BMO analyst John Gibson downgraded North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA-T) to “market perform” from “outperform”, cautioning the stock will require patience in 2026. His price target was cut to C$23 from C$26.
“NOA posted softer Q4/25 results, driven by cost increases related to its Fargo Moorhead project. The company’s 2026 guide implies a solid lift in results, although we don’t expect a material ramp until the second half of the year at the earliest,” he said in a note.
The average analyst price target is C$23.57.
Scotiabank analyst Himanshu Gupta, noting that both its fourth quarter 2025 and 2026 guidance disappointed, downgraded BSR REIT (HOM-UN-T) to “sector perform” from “sector outperform”
The REIT’s fourth quarter funds from operations per unit came in at $0.139, which is 32% below consensus of $0.205 and 29% below Scotia’s estimate. Revenue was largely in line, as the miss was mainly on real estate taxes, operating expenses and elevated general and administrative expenses.
Meanwhile, 2026 funds from operations per unit guidance of $0.77 (mid-point) is 14% below Scotia’s estimate of $0.901 and consensus estimate of $0.895.
“We think, BSR screens well on ‘rate of change story’, i.e., improvement in fundamentals after seeing three years of elevated supply & rental rate deceleration. But, we will have to wait for 2027 to see FFOPU growth and rent growth recovery. As such, patience is required on the name,” Mr. Gupta said.
He cut his price target to US$14, slightly below the average target of US$14.25.
RBC analysts led by Josh Wolfson upgraded Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC-N, K-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” while raising their price target to US$45 from US$36.
The move came as RBC updated its commodity price assumptions.
The bank now sees gold averaging US$5,723 an ounce in 2026, a 21 per cent hike from its previous forecasts, and US$6,500 in 2027.
The average analyst price target is US$39.77.
Desjardins analyst Bryce Adams raised his price target on Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) to C$42 from C$35 after site trips to a couple of the company’s assets. He also raised his net asset value estimates for the company while continuing to rate the stock a “buy”.
“We recently visited Lundin’s Caserones (70%, soon to be 75%) mining operation and Vicuña (50%) development asset, both in the Vicuña region of Chile/Argentina. Overall, the tour reinforced our positive view of Lundin’s operating and technical teams and highlighted long-term growth options, both from the Vicuña JV and from the extensive land package and corridor between Caserones and Los Helados (soon to be 30.9% LUN owned),” Mr. Adams said in a note.
Lundin recently provided a preliminary economic assessment for the Vicuña development project and the tour highlighted all the key components.
“The scale of the combined Filo del Sol and Josemaria deposits, the planned centralized processing and tailings facilities, as well as all the administrative and ancillary works, are incredible to see firsthand,” Mr. Adams said. “Our key takeaways are that the critical path items are earthworks and tailings construction (which should start later this year) and a high-voltage power connection, which should be live in mid-2029, in time for plant commissioning. RIGI approval is expected in the near term, after which the JV partners could quickly announce a formal FID [final investment decision], in our view. Stage 1 is well-defined; stages 2 and 3 are being further optimized.”
Regarding valuation, Mr. Adams said: “Our target price is based on 10x EV/2027E EBITDA (50%) and 1.3x NAVPS (50%), which we view as growth multiples. We now include attributable ownership of Los Helados (30.9%) and 75% ownership of Caserones in our model. On our estimates, LUN trades at 1.06x NAVPS and 10.6x EV/2026E EBITDA vs covered copper producer peers at 0.99x/8.0x, respectively.”
Canaccord Genuity has sliced its price target on logistics software company Descartes Systems Group (DSGX-Q, DSG-T) to US$92 from US$110 following a rough year so far for the sector.
However, analyst Robert Young is maintaining a “buy” rating, commenting that the company is still “thriving in a complex world.” He summed up Descartes’ fiscal fourth quarter as “a solid beat.”
“Descartes beat expectations soundly on the top and bottom line against a macro background that has gone from volatile to chaotic,” Mr. Young said in a note.
“Services revenue grew 15% YoY (8% organically, up from 7% last quarter), supported by consistent strength in global trade intelligence, real-time tracking/macropoint and e-commerce, all of which have further penetration potential into the customer base. Management reinforced its argument of resilience against AI, underpinned by its network, proprietary dataset and position as a trusted system of record for critical supply chain data. Adj. EBITDA grew an impressive 18% YoY while margins reached 46%, above management’s long-term target of 10-15% annual EBITDA growth and 40-45% margin. Descartes exited Q4 with $356M in cash and no debt, well capitalized to fund M&A, which remains a focus, and buybacks which are taking on new priority,” he said.
The average analyst price target is US$101.92.
TD Cowen analyst Derek J. Lessard boosted his price target on Dorel Industries Inc. (DII-B-T) to C$2.25 from C$1.50 after reviewing fourth quarter results.
“Q4 results told a familiar two-part story. Juvenile delivered healthy results (revenue +7% y/y) while the downsizing of the Home segment continued. Recall that the recent financing grants the company some breathing room to execute on its plan to monetize the Juvenile business, which is showing significant improvement (and supported by these results), and reposition the Home segment,” he said in a note.
Mr. Lessard continues to rate Dorel a “hold”.
“In the current environment, tariffs and the ongoing restructuring program are challenging our forecasting ability, particularly in the Home segment. That said, we’ve adjusted our model for Q4 results and lowered our H1/26 Home estimates modestly (i.e. reflecting a more gradual improvement in profitability in 2026),” he said.
TD Cowen raised its target valuation multiple to 4.9x (up from 4.4x) to reflect the continued stability of the juvenile business.
Raymond James analyst Stephen Boland trimmed his price target on Pollard Banknote Ltd. (PBL-T) but said investors are placing too much focus on margin compression.
Pollard Banknote reported its fourth quarter 2025 results on Tuesday. Revenue was $150.8 million, above consensus of $149.6 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $27.7 million, below consensus. Gross margin was 14.9%, below Mr. Boland’s 18.1% forecast, with Kansas iLottery start-up costs continuing to weigh on profitability and lower eTab sales due to regulatory changes in Minnesota.
“As iLottery represents a growing portion of revenue, we expect margins to improve over time as Kansas moves toward profitability and higher-margin digital contracts ramp,” Mr. Boland said in a note.
His target went to C$29 from $33, noting that he is applying an 6.5x multiple (was 8.0x) to his new 2027 EBITDA estimate. He continues to rate the stock “outperform.”
Elsewhere, ATB Cormark Capital Markets raised its price target to C$41 from C$36 while also reaffirming an “outperform” rating.
ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Tim Monachello raised his price target on Total Energy Services Inc. (TOT-T) to C$24 from C$20 in the wake of what he termed as “strong” fourth quarter 2025 results. Both adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow beat the analyst’s estimates.
“TOT remains a top idea given its track record of robust free cash flow generation, its healthy balance sheet that provides strong capital deployment optionality across its diverse operations, its exposure to structural natural gas production growth through its CPS segment, and its stack of organic growth initiatives that are improving medium-term visibility and enhancing TOT’s long-term competitive positioning,” Mr. Monachello said in a note. “In addition, while TOT shares are up 28% year to date, it has among the most attractive valuations in our coverage.