Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Several analysts are recommending investors in Boralex Inc. (BLX-T) tender their shares to Wednesday’s takeover offer from La Caisse and Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP-UN-T) valued at C$37.25 a share.
One analyst even offered up an idea for which stock in the renewable power sector could be the next takeover target.
The offer is a 32 per cent premium to Boralex’s share price on March 20, which was prior to reports emerging of the deal.
“In our view, this provides a compelling all-cash value proposition for current shareholders and better reflects the value of BLX’s portfolio,” said Desjardins analyst Brent Stadler. “BLX commented that it ran a thorough and rigorous process. We believe a competing bid is unlikely and recommend investors tender their shares.”
TD analyst Sean Steuart offered similar advice.
“We believe that the privatization offer from a Brookfield/La Caisse consortium represents fair value for BLX shareholders. We see a clear path to a Q4/26 close: negligible regulatory risk; shareholder support; minimal chances of a higher bid emerging. We recommend investors tender to the offer and are moving our rating to SELL (from Buy); our target price now matches the $37.25/share offer price,” Mr. Steuart said.
Raymond James analysts led by Frederic Bastien also liked the deal, for both Boralex and Brookfield, and drew some conclusions for what it could mean for the broader sector.
“From our perspective, the transaction reflects (i) the intrinsic value of contracted renewable platforms with embedded development pipelines, and (ii) increasing market appetite for scaled, long-duration assets. While the offer appears fair relative to Boralex’s historical trading range, we believe it also underscores a broader disconnect between public and private valuations across the renewable IPP space. We view the transaction as strategically compelling for Brookfield Renewable (BEP), aligning with its core mandate of acquiring high-quality renewable platforms, leveraging its global operating and commercial capabilities, and recycling capital over time,” Mr. Bastien said.
“We believe that this transaction reinforces strong market demand for renewable assets and suggests continued M&A potential across the sector,” the Raymond James analyst said. “With public valuations near cyclical lows, we see increasing likelihood of further take-private activity. We highlight that last year, renewable power peer, Innergex Renewables, was acquired at a valuation multiple of ~11.7x. We further note that Northland Power (NPI-T) is currently trading at historical lows of ~8.0x FY2026 EV/EBITDA multiple and could possibly be another take-out candidate, in our view. We acknowledge that Northland carries higher execution and development risk than Boralex, due to its concentration in large, technically complex offshore wind projects across Europe and Asia (where delays and cost overruns are possible). We do believe Northland continues to derisk its business as it executes on its two large-scale offshore wind projects, which remain on-time and on-budget, possibly allowing for a rerating of the company."
National Bank analyst Baltej Sidhu also sees a positive read through to Northland Power, prompting him to raise his price target to C$27 from C$25.
“With Boralex transitioning to private ownership, the number of scaled, publicly listed renewable IPPs in North America continues to decline. In this context, Northland remains one of the few remaining public platforms offering scale, with globally diversified assets and exposure to long-duration contracted cash flows. The ongoing consolidation trend highlights sustained private market demand for renewable infrastructure, particularly amid increasing electrification and energy security considerations (arguably, electrons are worth more given the macro/geopolitical events),” said Mr. Baltej. He rates Northland “outperform”.
Scotiabank analyst Robert Hope said the Boralex deal has positive valuation read throughs to other renewable power stocks as well. Scott Barlow has more details here in his research roundup today.
TD Cowen downgraded both Cogeco Communications Inc. (CCA-T) and Cogeco Inc. (CGO-T) to “hold” from “buy” ratings, citing concerns about competition at its U.S. operations. Price targets were cut to C$85 (rom C$100) and to C$85 (from C$120), respectively.
“CCA shares have had a nice run recently (+15% YTD), so we believe a bit of caution is warranted in the near-term,” TD analyst Vince Valentini said in a note. “The valuation is by no means expensive, in our view (5.0x 2026E EV/EBITDA is still lower than U.S. cable peers as shown in Figure 3, and a free cash flow yield over 16% is materially higher than Canadian cable/telco comps), and we still see material upside in 2027-2029 as the company both monetizes spectrum and harvests ~$600M in FCF per year (with ~$400M available post dividends). However, sentiment and headline risk can cause volatility for smaller cap names like Cogeco, and we would rather wait for either a lower entry point, or some passage of time, before recommending the purchase of more shares.”
Mr. Valentini pointed to near-term risks which became clearer after the FTTH Symposium hosted by his U.S. colleagues.
“U.S. analysts/investors continue to predict tough competition for cable operators, with talk of broadband penetration getting as low as 25% over time. One of the takeaways from TD Cowen’s FTTH Symposium was that national average cable subscriber penetration could drop from ~45% today, to only 25% longer-term, if every other technology achieves its targets of ~50% fiber, ~15-20% FWA, ~5% mobile only, and ~5% LEO satellite and DSL,” he said.
“We have confidence that CCA will be able to mitigate subscriber losses with improved marketing capabilities (wireless bundling; new digital brand; and better data analytics), plus perhaps some market share gains in the sub-20% penetration areas. However, investors are unlikely to give CCA the benefit of the doubt in the face of mounting competitive pressures across the entire industry, so it could take some time for Cogeco to get credit for its operational execution,” he said.
For Cogeco Inc., he noted that in addition to the target price flow through from CCA, he was also applying a 15% holding company discount in order to arrive at the new price target.
BMO analyst John Gibson made a hefty hike to his price target on Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T), to C$52 from C$38, following meetings with company management. He reiterated an “outperform” rating.
He met with Wayne Gingrich, CFO, and Rachel Pattimore, vice-president of investor relations.
“Overall, we came away with increased confidence that Bird should be able to hit its revenue and EBITDA margin targets by 2027 given embedded margins in its backlog, and increasing activity related to defence, data center, nuclear, and healthcare projects,” Mr. Gibson said in a note to clients. “We also believe this margin expansion should be sustainable over a longer period of time.”
Canaccord Genuity analyst Kenric Tyghe upgraded Planet 13 Holdings (PLTH-CN) to “buy” from “hold” after better-than-expected fourth quarter results.
Revenue came in at $25.2 million versus consensus of $23.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA came in at a $300,000 loss, versus estimates for a $3.4 million loss.
“The better-than-expected print was achieved despite continued weakness in Las Vegas tourism, with visitor volume falling by 6.2% sequentially in Q4/25 and by 7.5% vs. the prior year - its lowest annual level since 2010 (excluding COVID-impacted 2020-2021),” said Mr. Tyghe.
“In Florida, while the quarter was challenging, the ramp of the company’s BHO lab in Florida supported the long-awaited launch of its new concentrates and extracts product offering. The increased breadth and depth of the company’s statewide offering, dovetailing with increased supply, is supportive of improving economics and growth through our forecast window. The finalization on the February sale of its Orange County store (and associated cultivation facility in Coalinga) will positively impact adjusted EBITDA through 2026, in our view,” the analyst added.
He is maintaining a 25 cents Canadian price target.
ATB Cormark analyst Frederico Gomes was more cautious on the stock, reiterating an “underperform” rating and 20 cents Canadian price target in the wake of the results. He is concerned about industry headwinds, and said: “We believe the company’s liquidity deserves investor attention, considering a cash balance of $15.6 million, which includes restricted cash of $10.3 million associated with a cash-secured revolving line of credit.”
More price target cuts are coming in this morning for Ag Growth International Inc. (AFN-T), which stunned investors Tuesday night with a disappointing fourth quarter and outlook alongside a major restructuring which included a dividend suspension. The stock plunged 33 per cent on Wednesday.
TD analyst Michael Tupholme cut his price target to C$22 from C$41, but reiterated a “buy” rating in the belief that improved margins and debt levels lie ahead.
“While 2026 is seen as a down year, we expect EBITDA to positively inflect in 2027 (+15%) on improved margins. Even a modest target multiple and an expectation of some improvement in debt levels imply a healthy return to target vs. AFN’s current levels,” said Mr. Tupholme.
Elsewhere, National Bank analyst Maxim Sytchev downgraded his rating on Ag Growth to “sector perform” from “outperform” and cut his price target to C$24 from C$39. He said amid a worsening macro situation impacting the company, and its own internal turmoil, investors should look elsewhere.
CIBC cut its price target to C$19 from C$32.
Read more analyst reaction to Ag Growth’s earnings and restructuring plans in Wednesday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Carey MacRury raised his price target on Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-T) to C$16 from C$11 while reiterating a “speculative buy” rating. The action follows Canaccord in January raising its assumptions for future precious metals prices, as well as the pending acquisition of African Gold.
“As a reminder, the African Gold acquisition sets up the Didievi project in Côte d’Ivoire as next in Montage’s development queue following the build of Koné,” Mr. MacRury told clients. “The Didievi project currently has ~1Moz of resource (inferred) at a relatively high grade of 2.5 g/t, but with a 40,000m drill program underway that we expect will increase the resource. Montage is contemplating Didievi as a standalone project which, in our view, is likely to be 2+ million ounces. African Gold management has noted they see multi-million ounce potential across the broader Didievi tenement. Recall, first production at Koné is now expected in late 2026, ahead of the original schedule of Q2/27.”
Ventum Capital Markets analyst Amr Ezzat raised his price target on Computer Modelling Group (CMG-T) to C$6.75 from C$6.50 and reiterated a “buy” rating after the company purchased Rose Subsurface Assessment, a Houston-based provider of probabilistic subsurface risk analysis software, training, and consortium services, for US$9.8 million.
“While modest in size, this is a strategically coherent move. Rose expands CMG further upstream in the E&P workflow, filling a gap at the front end of its subsurface software stack,” Mr. Ezzat said.
In other analyst actions:
JPMorgan initiated coverage on Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD-T) with an “overweight” rating.
UBS downgraded Nutrien (NTR-N) to “sell” from “neutral” but raised its price target to US$67 from US$63.