Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Drew McReynolds sees Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) moved to “recalibrate” its capital expenditure plans as “a welcome surprise” for investors.
Its shares soared 13.6 per cent on Wednesday after announcing a plan to reduce spending by about one-third this year, in part by cancelling or delaying infrastructure projects in light of “significant regulatory hurdles” that its chief executive noted “impede investment.
“While 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance was reiterated, FCF guidance was revised upward driven by lower capex,” added Mr. McReynolds in a client note. “Specifically: (i) capex was reduced to $2.5-$2.7-billion versus $3.3-$3.5-billion previously, translating to 12-per-cent capex intensity and a 30-per-cent year-over-year decline at the midpoint versus $3.7-billion in 2025 (16-per-cent capex intensity); and (ii) FCF was increased to $4.1B-$4.3B versus $3.3-$3.5-billion previously.
“Following 3 years of significant investment post the Shaw acquisition and against the backdrop of a maturing Canadian telecom industry in a low revenue growth environment, management attributed the capex recalibration to recent regulatory decisions and elevated wireless promotional activity in Q1/26 (which has continued through April). Management indicated that the reduction in capex is expected to be sustained going forward and reflects a structural reprioritization (rather than temporary deferral) focused on critical investments across its networks, driven by: (i) the outright cancellation of uneconomical builds; (ii) the lengthening of project delivery schedules; and (iii) ongoing capital efficiencies. With the $800-million of incremental annual FCF being allocated to debt repayment, management expects the organic de-levering trajectory to improve by up to 40-50 basis points over the next four years.”
While he trimmed his revenue forecast through 2027, Mr. McReynolds raised adjusted earnings per share projections for 2026 to $5.50 from $5.08, 2027 to $5.64 from $5.12 and 2028 to $5.83 from $5.29 based on the “lower capex trajectory.”
That led him to increase his target for Rogers shares to $63 from $61 with an “outperform” rating, seeing a recent pullback providing “an attractive entry point” for investors. The average target on the Street is $57.80. according to LSEG data.
“We continue to see an equity reflation story for Rogers driven by FCF generation, outright debt repayment given the relatively low dividend payout ratio (less than 30 per cent of FCF), and further progress on balance sheet de-levering that now includes the completed $7-billion structured equity investment and a clear path for crystallizing a minority interest in the sports and media assets,” he said.
“We continue to view the recent pullback as a buying opportunity and we continue to see value in the stock, particularly should: (i) the operational environment show further improvement; (ii) any meaningful minority interest transaction in the sports and media assets be supportive of management’s estimated more than $20-billion valuation; and (iii) visibility on enhanced capital returns increase as leverage approaches 3 times.”
Elsewhere, a pair of analysts upgraded Rogers shares:
* Scotia’s Maher Yaghi to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” with a $60.50 target, up from $57.75.
“Rogers’ decision to slim down capex spend and focus on improving FCF production in the face of regulatory policy headwinds is exactly the right call, in our view. While the stock is up [Wednesday] morning, given the level of improved FCF generation that we believe is sustainable, we see still a good amount of potential valuation upside to reflect the new payout ratio equilibrium. Given the new payout ratio of around 35-36 per cent on FCF post-restructuring, leases and WC, the stock’s dividend yield should be closer to 3.5 per cent, or a stock price of $57. Looking forward, we expect the wireless business to face continued headwinds, however a reversion trade in RCI stock beyond this morning’s move is possible to fully reflect the new FCF run rate. In addition, while our SOTP valuation is assuming $19-billion for MLSE/Media, this could prove conservative if the company can deliver valuations in the $21-billion-$25-billion range in a monetization transaction. As a result of changes to our estimates post-Q1 and the new normal on FCF production/payout ratio, we are upgrading the stock to SO,” said Mr. Yaghi.
* TD Securities analyst Vince Valentini to “buy” from “hold” just three weeks after lowering his recommendation with a $60 target, up from $56.
Others making target revisions include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil to $59 from $54.50 with a “hold” rating.
“RCI’s significant capex reduction was a clear positive for us—we believe the reduction is mostly sustainable, should support further deleveraging and implies little change to our medium-term revenue expectations. A transition toward a lower-cost model appears reasonable in a maturing industry where differentiation is challenging and regulation limits return on investment. We maintain our Hold recommendation given the strong share-price reaction and our caution around the buyback of Kilmer Sports’ 25% stake in MLSE,” said Mr. Dubreuil.
* CIBC’s Stephanie Price to $62 from $61 with an “outperformer” rating.
“Rogers stock was up double digits after increasing its F2026 FCF guidance by 24 per cent at the mid-point as it reduces capex by a commensurate amount. The company characterized the capex reduction as a capital reprioritization amid a lower growth and tougher regulatory environment and does not expect capital intensity to return to the prior 15-per-cent range. The monetization of the sports assets remains ongoing.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige to $58 from $55 with a “buy” rating.
“We consider Rogers’ Q1/26 results to be net positive, primarily due to substantial reductions in the capex outlook and the resulting increase in the FCF outlook. Considering management comments, which suggest that the reduced CI (capital intensity) is sustainable on a multi-year basis, we now see Rogers’ valuation as particularly attractive at an 11.9-per-cent FCF yield—especially when coupled with the underlying value of its sports assets and its plans for partial monetize,” he said.
* National Bank’s Adam Shine to $62 from $60 with an “outperform” rating.
With its second-quarter 2026 results, National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar thinks Metro Inc. (MRU-T) displayed a “generally stable performance amid questions on industry competition.”
“The biggest investor uncertainty is related to the competitive backdrop, particularly in food,” he explained. “Given that MRU was able to deliver adequate food sssg, coupled with gross margin expansion, we view competition to be manageable, albeit not ideal (heightened industry real estate growth, low population growth, customer price sensitivity). That said, management indicated that the consumer behaviour remains consistent with prior quarters (elevated promo/private label, etc.). Pharmacy growth was robust.
“Elevated inflation suggests that grocers with a strong discount offering will be preferred (MRU is on track to accelerate its discount development; 12 discount stores in F2026 - 1.9-per-cent year-over-quarter square foot growth in grocery last 12 month. A strike at the Quebec produce distribution centre is expected to impact Q3/F26; we expect the impact to be transient (we model an impact of $20-million to EBITDA, for now).”
Shares of Montreal-based grocer fell 2.7 per cent on Wednesday after it the release of quarterly results that Mr. Shreedhar summarized as “largely in line.” Food same-store sales growth came in at 1.8 per cent versus his 2-per-cent projection with a higher basket “partly offset by lower same store traffic (total traffic was up).”Revenue of $5.113-billion topped expectations ($5.074-billion), while adjusted EBITDA of $489-million matched his estimate as did adjusted earnings per share of $1.11, which was a gain of 9 cents year-over-year.
In response to the release and management commentary, Mr. Shreedhar cut his full-year 2026 EPS projection by 7 cents to $5.07, while his 2027 assumption slid 3 cents to $5.60.
“We believe MRU is a solid company which has delivered solid long-term returns over various economic cycles,” he said. “However, our coverage presents investments which offer a better comparative investment proposition.”
Maintaining his “sector perform” rating for Metro shares, Mr. Shreedhar lowered his target by $1 to $105 to reflect his lower forecast. The average target on the Street is $105.50.
Elsewhere, others making target changes include:
* CIBC’s Mark Petrie to $97 from $101 with a “neutral” rating.
“Q2 results were essentially in-line with our expectations, though higher inflation and lower implied ‘tonnage’ were incremental negatives and the result of slower population growth and consumer trade-down. Beyond Q2, we moderate our Q3 forecasts to reflect the strike at the Laval produce distribution centre. This drives our F26 EPS growth estimate below Metro’s 8-10-per-cent framework, but with an expected bounce-back in F27,” said Mr. Petrie.
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $97 from $99 with a “hold” rating.
“Despite solid results with EPS growth returning to MRU’s 8–10-per-cent target, the stock underperformed. We attribute this mainly to concerns around slowing food SSSG (rising competition and moderating consumption) and limited earnings visibility from the produce DC strike. These are masking MRU’s success in navigating through a challenging environment. Given MRU’s large valuation discount to Loblaw (17 times vs 23 times forward P/E), we expect improving earnings visibility to be a key driver of valuation improvement,” said Mr. Li.
* Scotia’s John Zamparo to $96 from $103 with a “sector perform” rating.
“MRU’s DC strike in Laval adds greater uncertainty for FQ3 and represents another unexpected negative development for what’s historically been known as a primary flight-to-safety name. We ultimately expect investors to give FQ3 a pass; however, near-term catalysts are difficult to identify, lower food SSS looks likely to persist, favourable inflation levels are not translating to higher sales, and this year’s EPS growth now probably undershoots the low end (8 per cent) of the algo,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* BMO’s Étienne Ricard to $105 from $110 with an “outperform” rating.
“The near-term earnings growth setup for MRU is challenged on the back of declining same-store tonnage, operational disruptions and higher fuel costs,” said Mr. Ricard. “Our estimates (including our estimated Laval DC strike impacts) provide for full-year 6.5-per-cent adjusted EPS growth in fiscal 2026, below MRU’s long-term guidance for 8-10 per cent. Looking into fiscal 2027, MRU is trading at 16 times earnings (historical range: 16-20 times).”
Expecting “solid” first-quarter results from Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T) on April 29 and seeing multiple catalysts having the potential to “drive momentum,” Desjardins Securities analyst Brent Stadler upgraded its shares to a “top pick” rating from “buy” previously.
“We expect CPX will continue to create significant value for shareholders over the near term through executing on: (1) 500MW of datacentre MOUs; (2) highly accretive M&A; (3) U.S. recontracting; and (4) any additional growth opportunities,” he said in a client note. “CPX is now our Top Pick.”
Mr. Stadler adjusted his modeling of the company’s assets in PJM, the United States’ biggest power market, to better reflect seasonality and timing of planned maintenance, which reduced his first-quarter estimates. However, he emphasized it had a “muted impact” on his full-year assumptions.
“We forecast [quarterly] adjusted EBITDA of $400-million, which is slightly ahead of the Street at $389-million (analyst estimates range from $325–437-million) and up from $367-million in 1Q25," he added. “Year-over-year, we forecast higher EBITDA, largely due to the acquisition of Hummel and Rolling Hills, partially offset by expectations for lower generation from its Alberta merchant fleet, partially related to planned maintenance at G1. We model FCF/share of $1.22, which is down from $1.57 in 1Q25, as we forecast higher sustaining capex as CPX invests to optimize its assets, and a higher share count.
“What to watch for with 1Q26 results. (1) Update and progress on 500MW of datacentre MOUs (250MW at Midland and 250MW in Alberta); (2) update on M&A opportunities in the US; (3) colour on additional recontracting opportunities across CPX’s four other U.S. gas assets (totalling 2.6GW net); (4) colour on the outlook for the Alberta power market, where CPX can likely benefit from both a supply and demand response to rebalance the market; and (5) commentary on PJM’s two-phased reliability backstop auction and proposed initial target of 15GW of new supply (in our view, the recent draft proposal on this RBA was an incremental positive as the recent proposal from the PJM confirmed that expansions, uprates and repowerings are eligible to be bid, which creates opportunities for CPX).”
Mr. Stadler reaffirmed his $82 target for Capital Power shares. The average target is $76.60.
“We continue to view current levels as an attractive entry point for a high-quality portfolio and ahead of material catalysts,” he said.
National Bank Financial analyst Dan Payne saw the operational update from Lycos Energy Inc. (LCX-X) on Wednesday as “a significant update from the company, validating its recent acquisition and renewed development thesis, which with an accelerating cadence of capital, should continue to yield considerable value potential.”
After raising his forecast for the Calgary-based company to reflect both the update as well as the close of its acquisition of in an all-share deal valued at $49.7-million and concurrent non-brokered $30-million private placement equity financing, he upgraded its shares to an “outperform” from “sector perform” previously. In justifying the move, he cited a “higher attributed target price multiple (6.5 times from 6.0 times) that aligns with our broader sustainable oil peers (and with upside attributed to the opportunity for continued consolidation to be levered through its technical thesis and strength of cost of capital).”
Mr. Payne said Lycos’ update was “significant” and showed momentum “through an accelerating capital program to come.”
“Critically, the company has validated the acquisition thesis, with its initial drill result on acquired lands at Moonshine, with its first single-leg Mannville oil (circulating string; High Volume Solids Management Design) well realizing an IP30 of 140 barrels per day with current production continuing to incline on clean-up and currently producing 160 bbl/d,” he explained. “This is an important validation of its lands and development thesis to support expanded high-return development in the area (well costs $1.5-million), with efficiencies to come (pads 15-per-cent lower cost), in support of a sustainable low-decline resource (highly competitive capital efficiency suggested as a result).
“With that, its capital program has been substantially revived, with a $35-40-million budget to be deployed through the balance of the year, in support of the drilling of 15-20 (primarily HVSM wells) to drive production growth of 2 times towards an exit rate of 2,500 – 3,000 boe/d (risked in our view relative to the ultimate low decline productive potential of the associated development program). From there, the cadence of development should continue to expand into 2027 and beyond, with support of its solid capitalization. Incremental initiatives including harvest of residual inventory (and validated developments in multi-lats), optimization and waterflood, will similarly continue to complement the program."
Alongside his revised forecast, Mr. Payne raised his target for Lycos shares by 50 cents to $3. The average target is $1.90.
Ahead of the release of Restaurant Brands International Inc.’s (QSR-N, QSR-T) first-quarter results on May 6 before the bell, Citi analyst Jon Tower thinks its “shares are justifiably giving credit for improving Burger King sales, with a backdrop of peer closures/remodel lifts offering a base-line that sales/marketing/ops initiatives can further layer into.”
“In turn, SSS [same-store sales] can act as a powerful lever against cost pressures (e.g. beef) to keep remodels/value on track,” he added. “Other efforts to de-complicate the business (China, the broader RH segment over time, reaching investment-grade) could mean the gap closes further, but we argue valuation (15 times NTM [next 12-month] EV/EBITDA) is fair when balanced with still limited intl visibility and PLK challenges.”
Mr. Tower thinks an Investor Day event on Feb. 26 “seemed to kick off a reset for shares, with its valuation discount vs. highly franchised peers closing from 3-4x to 1 times.” The company announced a target of 8-per-cent-plus annual organic adjusted operating income growth through 2028 as well as 5-per-cent net restaurant growth and a plan to return over $1.6-billion to shareholders in 2026.
Mr. Tower raised his earnings per share estimates for each quarter through fiscal 2028 with its first-quarter 2026 projection rising 3 US cents to 87 US cents, which exceeds the Street’s expectation by 4 US cents and would represent a jump of 13 US cents from the same period a year ago.
He noted: “Key topics/questions — (1) With breakfast taking a backseat to Whopper/remodels/etc., how is the brand thinking about long-term positioning in this daypart and when it might be a bigger focus? What is franchisee feedback, and will an energy push play a role? (2) Does BK plan to respond to a competitor moving into the $3/$4 meals area? Do they see outsized risk to BK’s $5 Duos/$7 Trios platform? (3) Any evidence of behavior changes as a result of gas prices moving higher? (4) How to think about traffic vs check and if BK is establishing any momentum around increasing frequency? (5) With the move to virtually all ‘Sizzle’ remodels ($2.2-million year one on average), would QSR expect that performance to continue or are there geographic or other factors to consider? Are there particular products or dayparts driving the outperformance? What the data says — (1) Year-over-year BK U.S. footfall improved by 90 bps quarter-over-quarter (to up 1.4 per cent) and further accelerated to start 2Q (up 4.4 per cent) while share of the Big 3 reached multi-yr highs. (2) Second Measure data shows a more rangebound trend for BK and PLKI [Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Inc.] declining. (3) Canada’s unemployment rate is off of ’25 highs.”
Maintaining his “neutral” rating for Restaurant Brands shares, Mr. Tower hiked his target to US$88 from US$76 to reflect his higher forecast. The average target on the Street is US$80.84.
“The company has demonstrated an ability to improve franchisee profitability in core home markets across the portfolio, and we expect this broadly continues, along with strong unit growth for Burger King International, ramping of PLK brand globally and solid comp growth at Tim Hortons Canada,” he concluded. “However, limited visibility into the economics of nascent businesses outside core markets (eg, PLK INTL, TH INTL, FHS) means it is difficult to underwrite NRG (new restaurant growth) returning to and sustaining at more than 5 per cent and layering this into valuation. At the same time, we see above-average room for near- to medium-term estimate volatility related to the Burger King U.S. brand repositioning/reinvestment, particularly as the competitive set ramps promotional activity to drive traffic.
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Bart Dziarski thinks TMX Group Ltd.’s (X-T) US$300-million acquisition of the Canadian and Australian assets of Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE-A) “represents an accretive deployment of capital at a reasonable valuation, in-line with the company’s longer-term objective of increasing its recurring revenue mix.”
“Planting a flag in Australia provides longer-term growth opportunities and creates a global leader in mining and energy transition financing ecosystems,” he added.
In a client note titled Aussie Aussie Aussie, TMX TMX TMX, Mr. Dziarski said the deal by the parent company of the Toronto Stock Exchange and the TSX Venture Exchange enhances its vertically integrated model across trading, listings, and market data, while “establishing a North America-APAC footprint.”
“This positions TMX as the #3 global exchange operator and supports its growing international revenue base (approximately 51 per cent ex-Canada in 2025), he noted. ”Australia represents a natural adjacency given overlap in mining and capital markets, with management highlighting existing issuer relationships as a foundation for growth. We note TMX pro-froma market share in Canada is expected to increase from approximately 50 per cent to 60 per cent plus. High recurring revenue mix (90-per-cent Cboe Australia, 55-per-cent Cboe Canada) compares well to TMX’s current 50-per-cent recurring revenue mix with management expecting top-line growth to approximate TMX’s long-term financial objectives.
“The acquired assets generated $87-million in revenue and $25-million in EBITDA (30-per-cent margin) in 2025, below TMX’s 57-per-cent EBITDA margin before factoring in synergies. We estimate TMX paid 16 times pre-synergies EBITDA for the business, which is in-line with TMX 2026E EBITDA multiple and we view as reasonable.”
Assuming the transaction receives regulatory approval and closes in the fourth quarter followed by a full-year economic contribution in 2027, Mr. Dziarski increased his target for TMX shares to $65 from $64 “primarily driven by incremental EBITDA contribution from the Cboe business net of associated interest expense from higher debt”, reiterating an “outperform” rating. The average target is $61.60.
“We believe a continued favourable mix shift towards stickier, recurring, and high growth revenue will drive a higher multiple over time,” he said. “TMX currently trades at 23 times NTM [next 12-month] P/E, slightly above long-term historical averages. We believe the current multiple still understates the extent to which the business has been fundamentally repositioned over the last 10 years, with recurring revenue increasing from 40 per cent to 50 per cent and management targeting a continued positive mix shift towards 67 per cent over the long term. TMX has a fundamentally strong business model characterized by a dominant market share in Canada and high barriers to entry.”
As first-quarter earnings season approaches, Desjardins Securities’ precious metals equity analysts are predicting “continued strength” across the sector, stemming “from ongoing geopolitical tension and anticipate continued price volatility driven by the uncertainty in the length of the war and its ultimate inflation impact.”
“Gold and silver prices exhibited extreme volatility in 1Q26 with spreads from the quarterly highs to lows of US$1,096/oz and US$51.22/oz, respectively,” said Bryce Adams, Allison Carson and Amanda Lewis. “Metal prices reached all-time highs in 1Q26 of US$5,410/oz Au and US$118.45/oz Ag before steeply correcting at the end of January following Trump’s Federal Reserve chair nomination. Declines continued through March driven by the Iran war strengthening the U.S. dollar and increasing inflation and interest rate expectations. Gold and silver averaged US$4,866/oz and US$84.10/oz, respectively, in the quarter.”
“We are estimating a beat vs consensus on both EPS and EBITDA for OLA, and we model a miss vs consensus on both EPS and EBITDA estimates for USA (although we expect there are several estimates not updated for production results and do not expect a significant beat or miss from either OLA or USA). Further, we highlight our EBITDA estimates for OGC and KNT are 8 per cent and 7 per cent ahead of Street expectations, respectively but our EPS estimates for both are below the Street. Lastly, we note that nine of our fifteen precious metal producers have pre-reported 1Q26 production, except for AGI, CG, K, OGC, AYA, and ITR.”
In a report released Thursday, the group made minor adjustments to their forecasts after updating their metals and foreign exchange price assumptions earlier in the month. With those tweaks, they made a pair of target price adjustments:
- Centerra Gold Inc. (CG-T, “hold”) to $33 from $30. The average target on the Street is $31.29.
- Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. (WDO-T, “buy”) to $34 from $32. Average: $29.90.
Their top picks for precious metals producers are:
- Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA-T) with a “buy” rating and $37 target. Average: $32.20.
- K92 Mining Inc. (KNT-T) with a “buy” rating and $40 target. Average: $36.58.
- Americas Gold and Silver Corp. (USA-T) with a “buy” rating and $16 target. Average: $13.66.
They also added Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA-T) as a “preferred name” with a “buy” rating and $35 target, which exceeds the $31.71 average.
“AYA’s Zgounder production profile is now de-risked and Boumadine MRE and PEA updates provide longer-term growth at a discounted valuation. In our view, KNT offers attractive near-term production growth, and strong resource upside potential. For USA, we continue to estimate year-over-year production growth out to 2029 as the company executes on its revitalization and growth plan for Galena, and brings in production from the Crescent mine. We have added OLA due to its ongoing outperformance at Musselwhite, our expectation of improving production from Camino Rojo following the permit receipt, and catalysts on the horizon for South Railroad,” they explained.
In other analyst actions:
* BMO’s Joel Jackson upgraded Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (CHE.UN-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” with an unchanged $18.50 target. The average is $18.80.
“Following our hosted management call, and recent share price declines, we believe CHE now prices in a reasonable bear case outcome at North Vancouver despite scope for the district council and CHE to reach acceptable compromise over the coming months,” he said. “We therefore re-upgrade CHE to Outperform after last week’s downgrade.
“We also slightly raise estimates (upside from stronger caustic and sulphur/acid pricing since the Iran war began), but reiterate our $18.50 target (~6x 2026E EV/EBITDA, a discount to U.S. chemicals peers). Valuation remains attractive, and index inclusion remains possible.”
* In a quarterly earnings preview for Canadian energy infrastructure stocks, ATB Cormark’s Nate Heywood raised his targets for AltaGas Ltd. (ALA-T, “outperform”) to $54 from $52, Superior Plus Corp. (SPB-T, “outperform”) to $8.50 from $8 and TC Energy Corp. (TA-T, “outperform”) to $82 from $80. The averages are $51.50, $7.90 and $94.05, respectively.
“The EI space year-to-date has performed well, with the bulk of names in our coverage realizing share price performance above major benchmarks like the S&P 500 and TSX,” said Mr. Heywood. “Recently, we’ve seen shares fall off their highs, despite ongoing conflict in the Middle East and a strengthening case for Canadian energy in the global market. The pullback here likely reflects a more uncertain interest rate environment (policy rates holding flat with potential for increases) given inflation concerns under the higher commodity price environment and capital recycling back out of energy on optimism for a peace deal. While there has been a cooling period, we currently see an underlying advantage for Canadian energy infrastructure names in a global market hungry for reliable supply and an improving narrative for egress project development.”
* Stifel’s Ian Gillies bumped his target for AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T) shares to $115 from $114 with a “buy” rating. The average is $118.57.
“ATRL has announced the acquisition of WGA (private), an 800-person firm based in Australia and New Zealand. We estimate the acquisition cost to be approximately $261-million at a transaction multiple of 10.0 times EV/EBITDA. The acquisition is estimated to increase ATRL’s 2026/2027 estimated EBITDA by 1.2 per cent and 1.7 per cent, respectively. We view the acquisition and the company’s execution positively. Importantly, the company has over $3.2-billion of internal dry powder, which will continue to drive active M&A executions,” he said.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Neville increased his CAE Inc. (CAE-T) target to $50 from $49 with a “buy” rating. The average is $48.10.
“There is going to be some noise in near-term numbers as CAE undertakes its business transformation plan,” said Mr. Neville. “By noise, we mean added expenses related to physically moving assets, rationalizing the network, selling assets, reducing headcount, etc. – i.e., one-time costs that aren’t adjusted out; in Q3/F26, there were $7.5 million of such costs. We understand that and are okay with it as we expect the payoff to be significant. As such, we expect F2027 guidance/results to show only modest improvements over F2026. However, we expect meaningful improvements by F2029 – i.e., FCF up more than 40 per cent vs. F2026, a 200 basis points improvement in SOI margin, 10-per-cent EPS CAGR, leverage dropping below 1 times, etc. – as the transformation plan bears fruit. While not in our estimates, as the B/S and FCF are structurally improved, we expect the conversation to gradually transition to value surfacing initiatives – i.e., potentially reinstating a dividend, repurchasing shares, doing M&A, etc. We have made modest forecast revisions,."
* Ahead of first-quarter earnings season for Canadian railroad companies, Raymond James’ Steve Hansen raised his targets for Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T, “outperform”) to $170 from $162 and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T, “outperform”) to $125 from $120. The averages are $154.99 and $126.77, respectively.
“Canadian rail traffic is off to a better-than-expected start in 2026. While January struggled (acute weather), traffic accelerated through February/March driven by sustained tailwinds in Grain, Intermodal, and PetChem,” he said. “Both Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) outperformed our expectations. After an underwhelming FY26 volume guide (‘flattish’), CN stood out, in particular, outperforming not only Street expectations, but also its closest peer for a 2nd consecutive quarter. Share price performance followed.
“Looking forward, we remain cautiously optimistic on both carriers. While the threat of further U.S. trade action still lingers, we see a realistic path to low-to-mid-single-digits traffic growth underpinned by: 1) sustained bulk tailwinds (grain, potash); 2) incremental self-help traction; and 3) a rapidly improving economic/freight outlook south of the border. At the same time, emerging inflections in key categories (PetChem, Forestry, FracSand) are expected to influence the growth and yield mix. Against this backdrop, we have increased our target prices.”
* ATB Cormark’s Gavin Fairweather raised his Docebo Inc. (DCBO-T) target to $36 from $35 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $39.91.
“This week, we attended Docebo’s investor event in Miami and conversed with customers, employees, partners and prospects. Attendees were impressed by the pace of innovation in the core LMS platform and the speed of AI development and were buying into Docebo’s vision to be the platform at the intersection of learning, skills and enterprise knowledge, with a strong AI overlay and agentic automation. Alongside the event, Docebo pre-released Q1 results that came in ahead of prior expectations and lifted its C26 guidance by more than the beat. With a strong vision, improving execution and a stock at 9.5 times EBITDA, we like the risk-reward,” said Mr. Fairweather.
* Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay reduced his target for Goodfood Market Corp. (FOOD-T) to 15 cents from 25 cents and moved his risk qualifier to “speculative” from “above-average” with his “hold” recommendation. The average target is 55 cents.
“2Q was impacted by ongoing demand softness and a temporary license suspension at the Montreal facility,” said Mr. Tremblay. “New management is taking steps to stabilize the business through product enhancements and cost-reduction initiatives. These actions may begin to support performance beyond the seasonally weaker summer period. However, we highlight a fast-approaching debenture maturity.”
* Following in-line quarterly results, Raymond James’ Brad Sturges trimmed his target for StorageVault Canada Inc. (SVI-T) to $5.50 from $5.75 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $5.81.
“Institutional investor interest remains strong for direct Canadian storage real estate, as illustrated by recent larger portfolio transactions executed by large, reputable buyers in key Canadian urban markets. Notable portfolio transactions have occurred at valuations well above StorageVault’s implied valuation at current trading levels. We believe StorageVault remains undervalued, while the company could be in position to generate relatively higher 2026E AFFO/share growth year-over-year,” said Mr. Sturges.
Editor’s note: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated ATB Cormark's Nate Heywood raised his target for TransAlta Corp. The change was made to TC Energy Corp. This version has been updated.