Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Believing it is “too painful on the sidelines,” National Bank Financial analyst Maxum Sytchev upgraded Finning International Inc. (FTT-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” after its first-quarter results displayed “improving sustainable” earnings per share growth.
“CAT/TIH [peers Caterpillar and Finning International] are trading at 30 times/27 times P/E on 2027Eestimates; yes, we think the base metals space will always be cyclical but when accounting for the more friendly CAD resource development (construction names are all the rage, for a reason), incremental primary and backup data centre opportunity in Canada, and Argentina potentially becoming a more meaningful contributor vs. current 6 per cent to 7 per cent of the top line over time, the curvature of the EPS trajectory is getting better and higher,” he said in a client report titled No point in digging in.
“As a result, we are bringing our target P/E on Finning closer to that of TIH’s (to 23 times on 2027E projections from prior 18 times). The too early downgrade in May 2025 has been a wrong call as FTT’s opportunity set continues to improve on impressive operational execution. Credit has to be given where it’s due. We are upgrading FTT shares.”
After the bell on Tuesday, the Vancouver-based industrial equipment dealer reported net revenue for the quarter of $2.5-billion, up 2 per cent year-over-year and narrowly below the expectations of Mr. Sytchev ($2.56-billion) and the Street ($2.53-billion). Adjusted earnings per share of $1.02 was a penny below the analyst’s projection but a penny above the consensus forecast, while the backlog stood at $3.8-billion, which is an all-time high and up 32 per cent from the same period in the last fiscal year.
Mr. Sytchev was optimistic about the trajectory of the company following the conference call with management, touting “broad-based strength” in bookings and seeing a rising equipment population sustaining a tailwind for its Product Support business.
“Canada and LatAm truck population continues to grow,” he explained. “Finning’s mining truck population has expanded to about 1,500 units globally – a 35-per-cent increase (8 per cent compound annual growth rate) since 2021. Management expects continued growth in both Canada and LatAm, with declining ore grades (more material needs to be moved) and longer haul distances (as mines are dug downwards and outwards) providing significant secular tailwinds. While the inventory build for backlog/ growth weighed on FCF in the quarter, this is, of course, a first-class problem to have. More importantly, this creates a bigger and longer high-margin PS revenue tail.”
“More confidence in the sustainability of construction sector momentum. Management noted a 30-per-cent year-over-year increase in construction segment order intake – an encouraging number despite the inherent lumpiness of orders – improving revenue visibility incrementally. In Canada, FTT continues to gain market share in the sector (though oil sands are still the dominant profit driver), which now sits at a decade-plus high and creates further opportunities for sustainable PS revenues. While ‘nation-building’ projects have not explicitly contributed to the backlog yet, the tone in the industry has improved significantly vs. just a few years ago.”
Also seeing a “big scope of data centre opportunities in Alberta, but longer-dated in nature,” Mr. Sytchev “slightly” raised his forecasts for 2027 “as the company continues to show impressive backlog growth (up 32 per cent year-over-year) with new deliveries expected to carry the growth baton for the remainder of this year.”
Those changes led him to hike his target for Finning shares to $115 from $89. The average target on the Street is $104, according to LSEG data.
Elsewhere, Raymond James’ Steve Hansen raised his target to $120 from $100 with an “outperform” rating.
“We are increasing our target price on Finning International ... based: 1) the company’s solid 1Q26 print; 2) outstanding Product Support growth in Canada; 3) increased Construction & Power momentum (incl. W.Can data centers); 4) new record backlog ($3.8-billion); & 5) robust market outlook,” said Mr. Hansen.
Following better-than-anticipated first-quarter results, National Bank Financial analyst Shane Nagle says he continues to see “improving momentum” throughout the second half of the year for Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV-T), pointing to “progressing towards resumption of production from Cobre Panamá, significant tailwinds from elevated oil & gas prices, improved option value given its large-scale portfolio, and a more compelling valuation relative to peers.”
That led him to raise his rating for the Toronto-based gold-focused royalty and streaming company to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“[Cobre Panamá] is resuming processing of stockpiles in H2 and with completion of environmental audit, First Quantum is expected to resume negotiations with the Government of Panamá,” said Mr. Nagle. “We also see significant tailwinds from elevated oil & gas prices through the remainder of the year - oil & gas account for 10 per cent of Q1/26 GEOs and at spot prices, oil & gas GEOs could account for 10 per cent of our GEOs estimate for 2026. We also see potential for additional option value within FNV’s portfolio as operators take advantage of higher gold prices to lower cut-off grades and embark on expansion/development initiatives as well as increase exploration budgets improving optionality within FNV’s royalty business model.
“At 1.98 times NAV (peers: 2.04 times) and 18.0 times EV/2027E CF - with only partial contributions from Cobre Panama (peers: 17.5 times), FNV is now trading at a more compelling valuation. We await progress updates on reopening Cobre Panamá, which, aside from incremental acquisitions, represents the most significant catalyst for the company’s near-term growth outlook.”
After the bell on Tuesday, Franco-Nevada reported adjusted EBITDA for the quarter of US$591.9-million, exceeding Mr. Nagle’s US$590.4-million estimate as well as the consensus projection of US$570.4-million. Adjusted earnings per share of US$2.38 also topped forecasts (US$1.96 and US$2.16, respectively).
“FNV reiterated 2026 GEOs guidance of 510,000 – 570,000 GEOs (NBCM: 557,000 GEOs; was 547,000 GEOs excl. Cobre Panamá at FNV price deck) with 88 per cent from precious metal assets and 12% from diversified assets,” the analyst noted. “2026 guidance assumes an increase in precious metal GEOs driven by the first full year of contribution from Côté Gold, Porcupine and Valentine Gold, the continued ramp-up of Salares Norte and Greenstone, and the recent acquisitions of the Casa Berardi stream and i-80 royalty. Guidance does not assume any contributions from Cobre Panamá.”
Also touting the company’s “strong net cash position despite recent acquisitions,” Mr. Nagle raised his target for its shares to $420 from $410. The average on the Street is $420.51.
TD Cowen analyst Graham Ryding thinks Power Corp. of Canada’s (POW-T) fundamentals “look strong,” however he’s concerned they are already “priced-in” to its shares following recent gains, prompting him to lower his recommendation to “hold” from “buy”previously.
“Earnings growth from core operating companies is evident,” he said. “The alternative asset manager continues to scale. Capital returns are healthy (dividend increases and buybacks). We have increased our target price (rolling forward estimates and higher multiple). These positives appear priced-in (P/E is 3.1 times higher than the last-five-year average). The total return potential suggests a Hold rating at this time.”
While he thinks Power Corp. “represents a solid capital return investment (dividend growth and buybacks),” Mr. Ryding thinks its valuation upside “may be limited.” However, he raised his target to $84 from $74 due to rolling forward estimates and a higher P/E multiple. The average is $77.86.
“We view Power Corp. as a solid large cap defensive name with an attractive dividend yield. We are constructive on the core operating companies (Great-West and IGM). Momentum remains intact for the alternatives AUM platform. We expect buybacks to persist. Current valuation appears fair,” he concluded.
Elsewhere, others making adjustments include:
* RBC’s Bart Dziarski to $86 from $73 with an “outperform” rating.
“POW shares currently trade at a 19-per-cent discount to NAV with an attractive 3-per-cent dividend yield,” said Mr. Dziarski. “With $1.7-billion of cash available (we estimate $1-billion is excess), POW retains optionality to continue its healthy pace of stock buybacks and re-deploy into growth areas of the business like we saw this quarter with the Sagard funding round. We are maintaining our Outperform rating and increasing our price target to $86/share (from $73) primarily reflecting higher price targets for GWO and IGM.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young to $87 from $81 with a “buy” rating.
“Adjusted EPS was in line with us and consensus. Relative to us, the contributions from GWO and IGM beat (was expected), while its investment platforms and GBL missed. Also, corporate expenses and the drag from consolidation effects were lower quarter-over-quarter. Overall, no changes to our views,” said Mr. Young.
In a client report titled Still more wood to chop before it gets easier, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Bart Dziarski further reduced his earnings and booking value per share forecasts for Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) “factoring in lower growth and higher credit losses” following the release of the lender’s first-quarter results.
“Valuation should remain capped with liquidity constrained until H2/26, growth constrained near term, and GSY working through remediating issues in the LendCare portfolio,” he said.
Goeasy shares fell 5.1 per cent on Wednesday after it reported a quarterly adjusted earnings per share loss of $1.90, missing the estimates of Mr. Dziarski and the Street (losses of $1.40 and $1.32, respectively).
“Material weakness in internal controls persists,” the analyst said. “GSY provided a path toward remediating internal control deficiencies: i) 75 per cent through 1st and 2nd line of defence ii) internal audit then completes a review iii) external auditors then review and finally iv) GSY has hired a Big-4 consulting firm to review internal controls holistically. GSY expects to implement and test control improvements by end of 2026. Until then, given there is a reasonable probability that material misstatements to the financials may occur, we maintain our cautious stance.
“Guidance maintained for 2026; Q2/26 guidance provided: i) Gross consumer loans of $4.9-$5.1-billion at Q2/26 (implying down 7 per cent quarter-over-quarter at the mid- point) with growth resuming in H2/26; ii) 27-28.5-per-cent yield on consumer loans in Q2/26 (vs 27.9 per cent in Q1/26) with improvement throughout 2026; iii) 16.0-17.5-per-cent net charge-offs in Q2/26 (vs 17.8 per cent in Q1/26) with improvement throughout 2026.”
With the reductions to his projections, Mr. Dziarski cut his target for Goeasy shares to $30 from $33, keeping an “underperform” rating. The average is $38.95.
“We are taking a more conservative view of NCOs [net charge-offs] given LendCare portfolio is still being remediated and macroeconomic indicators are deteriorating,” he said. “Our 2026 NCO estimate of 17 per cent is above management’s 15-per-cent outlook and we assume modest improvement in 2027. We also reduce our gross consumer loan receivable balance in-line with management’s Q2/26 guidance and assume minimal growth thereafter. We estimate GSY will be unprofitable in 2026 resulting in BVPS declining to $45 and we expect modest profitability in 2027.”
“In our view, management’s 3-step plan of acting decisively, investing in scalable and resilient growth, and delivering disciplined high-performance is unlikely to take hold until 2028+ which should constrain growth in 2026 & 2027 and, ultimately, a valuation re-rating.”
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* National Bank’s Jaeme Gloyn to $34 from $38 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Our initial view of the Q1 results tilted negative given: i) deterioration in credit metrics (including higher early stage delinquencies and weaker easyfinancial performance); ii) higher leverage, and iii) guidance for faster decline in the loan book,” said Mr. Gloyn. “While the conference call provided more optimistic funding commentary, we believe credit risk remains elevated.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to $38 from $47 with a “buy” rating.
“1Q results met all three guidance metrics (loan book, revenue yield, NCO), providing incremental validation of the turnaround plan. However, underlying credit trends bear monitoring. LendCare’s NCO rate remains elevated at 26.4 per cent, easyfinancial’s unsecured NCO deteriorated 170 basis points sequentially to 13.8 per cent and ACL continued to climb to 10.1 per cent on weaker macro assumptions. 2Q loan book guidance of $4.9–5.1-billion implies further meaningful contraction. We lowered our estimates,” said Mr. Ho.
* TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding to $32 from $36 with a “hold” rating.
“The outlook remains highly fluid with respect to earnings visibility and liquidity / funding. We are assuming portfolio growth resumes in 2H/26, LendCare related delinquencies / charge offs gradually improve through 2027, and funding is secured in Q3/26 to support easyfinancial growth. We will be looking for evidence of improving delinquencies / charge offs, secure funding, and expense management,” said Mr. Ryding.
* Raymond James’ Stephen Boland to $42 from $46.50 with a “market perform” rating.
“While we have seen some improvement in credit results, we remain cautious until a longer trend develops,” said Mr. Boland.
Declaring “there is nothing broken in the flywheel,” Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman recommends investors add shares of Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD-T) in the wake of Wednesday’s selloff, which he thinks “seems massively overdone” while also acknowledging “the payoff may be further dated.”
Shares of the Winnipeg-based operator of non-franchised collision repair centres dropped 12 per cent after it reported revenue of $996.7-million, broadly in line with the consensus estimate of $991.1-million. However, same-store sales for the quarter of 1.7 per cent fell under the 2.1-per-cent expectation on the Street and “below the long-term growth algo of 3-5 per cent,” raising investor concern.
“On the call, management noted that a large part of the delta was due to lower total cost of repair (TCOR), which in the long term is expected to contribute 3-4 per cent to SSSG,” said Mr. Goldman. “Adding that back, we believe SSS would have been above the high end of the target range. Aging fleet is keeping total loss rates elevated whereas new cars are more likely to be repaired and consume more OE parts. But, as we discussed in our recent auto industry upgrade, we expect NA SAAR [North American seasonally adjusted annual rate] to be resilient in the 16 million range this year, following several years in the less than 15-million range, which should act as a gravitational pull on fleet age and total loss rates. Higher new vehicle prices should also lift used prices and further raise the threshold for total loss. Conversely, we think the company will hit its 14-per-cent margin target ahead of schedule in the 2H.”
Mr. Goldman made “nominal” adjustments to his estimates for Boyd, including a forecast of 2.6-per-cent same-store sales through his forecast horizon, noting it is the “same print as 1Q excluding weather.
“Is that our expectation? No. Is that what recent industry KPIs suggest (total loss rates, fleet age, used prices, insurance premiums)? No. Is that what peer readthroughs indicate (aftermarket parts, coatings co’s)? No. But, it’s what we have a mark on; and we would rather err on the side of caution, positioning for upside surprises in a story that has become more about managing expectations than managing operations, which have always been a core competency,” he said.
Keeping a “sector outperform” rating for Boyd shares, Mr. Goldman reduced his target to $231 from $239. The average is $254.70.
Shares are trading at 7.3 times EV/EBITDA and 9.7-per-cent FCF yield on our 2027 estimates,” he said. “BYD shares have traded increasingly around sentiment more than fundamentals in recent years – shares hit $127 in June 2022 – and probably more so now that it has a U.S. investor base. But, it’s hard not to make BYD our top pick given the valuation and as we do not see anything structurally changed in the industry. Cars have a definite life with a built-in maintenance spend in the form of depreciation. TCOR should continue to move up in line with vehicle complexity and general inflation. Margins expand with SSS leverage and internal initiatives.”
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to $240 from $260 with a “buy” rating.
“Our investment thesis is based on: (1) a quality compounder with a history of SSSG and strong ROIC; (2) a disciplined M&A track record in a fragmented US$50-billion industry; (3) scale advantages as the second-largest player in North America; and (4) upside from supply-chain initiatives and greenfield and brownfield expansion,” said Mr. Ho.
* TD Cowen’s Derek Lessard to $190 from $270 with a “buy” rating.
“We struggle to reconcile investor reactions: the stock is being punished for modest SSSG [same-store sales growth] - impacted by well-telegraphed winter storms - while overlooking 200 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion from solid execution. This follows a 30-per-cent post-Q4 share selloff. While we’ve trimmed our multiple to reflect sentiment, we remain confident BYD can deliver near double-digit EBITDA growth over our forecast horizon,” said Mr. Lessard.
* Stifel’s Daryl Young to $205 from $255 with a “buy” rating.
“The stock reaction was severe, down 12 per cent, which we view as disproportionate to the results and modest estimate revisions, but we think there is a broader de-rating happening for Boyd as investors factor in the myriad of medium-and long-term industry complexities/uncertainties around ADAS and total write-offs,” said Mr. Young.
In other analyst actions:
* With its valuation moving closer to U.S. peers following a 75-per-cent jump in share price thus far in 2026, BMO’s John Gibson downgraded Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T) to “market perform from “outperform” while raising his target to $55 from $52. The average is $48.57.
* Conversely, Mr. Gibson upgraded Mattr Corp. (MATR-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” with a $12 target, up from $8, touting an improved 2026 outlook following “strong” first-quarter results. The average is $10.60.
* Acumen Capital’s Trevor Reynolds raised his AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ-T) to $27 from $25 with a “speculative buy” rating. The average is $21.33.
“Overall, management is focused on the things they can control in the near term as headwinds persist driven by consumer uncertainty, high vehicle costs, and elevated fuel prices. Management continues to focus on restoring operational performance following the cost out strategy while maintaining a lean operating structure. Notably, management still expects GPU’s to continue to normalize through 2026, while the true run rate of the business is expected to materialize in 2027,” said Mr. Reynolds.
* Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil cut his Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T) target to $3,800 from $3,900 with a “buy” rating, while TD’s David Kwan raised his target to $4,200 from $4,100 with a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $4,126.67.
“While the market expects the software industry to undergo major shifts driven by agentic AI, we view CSU as less exposed to potential disruption than horizontal software companies. The company has started 2026 with robust capital deployment, and its M&A pipeline remains healthy even if private market valuations have not moved as much as in public markets. We are looking forward to the AGM on May 15 for further clarity on CSU’s new PEMS strategy, the AI strategy and other capital-allocation insights,” said Mr. Dubreuil.
* Stifel’s Martin Landry raised his Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFG-CN) target to $2.30 from $2.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $2.48.
“Happy Belly Food Group reported Q1/26 earnings which were slightly better than our expectations,” said Mr. Landry. “Q1/26 EBITDA came in at a loss of $0.2-million, slightly worse than last year’s gain of $0.1-million, but above our expectations of a loss of $0.4-million. We expect EBITDA to be positive throughout the remainder of the year. System sales reached $19.3-million, up 80 per cent year-over-year, and came in line with our expectations of $19.2-million. Recently, HBFG announced the acquisition of Ghost Taco, a fast-casual mexican cuisine restaurant with six locations. We view the deal positively and consistent with management’s strategy. HBFG is on track to reach 100 restaurants in June, with the first U.S. store opening scheduled in July. In our view, HBFG is one of the fastest growth stories in the small-cap consumer sector.”
* National Bank’s Patrick Kenny raised his target for Hydro One Ltd. (H-T) to $56 from $55 with a “sector perform” rating, while TD’s John Mould bumped his target to $58 from $57 with a “hold” rating. The average is $58.20.
“Hydro One reported Q1/26 adj. EPS of $0.65 versus our $0.66 estimate (Street: $0.63) on higher peak demand, partially offset by higher financing charges and depreciation,” said Mr. Kenny. “Meanwhile, the company’s 2026-2027 capital plan has been revised to $6.8-billion (was $6.1-billion), partly reflecting Broadband investments following the detailed construction schedule submitted to the province. Overall, the company reiterated its adj. EPS growth expectations through 2027 of 6-8 per cent, underpinning a 6-per-cent dividend increase confirmed and matching our expectation.”
* National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine increased his Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T) target to $59, exceeding the $56.04 average, from $56, keeping an “outperform” rating, while TD’s Mario Mendonca cut his target to $58 from $59 with a “buy” rating
“Results were mixed, with Asia and U.S. delivering good growth, offset by earnings declines in Canada and GWAM. Earnings quality was weak, reflecting ALDA and public markets charges. Asia delivered good new business CSM, WM EBITDA margins improved 60 basis points year-over-year, and MFC continued to buy back stock - key drivers of the 18-per-cent ROE target. New business trends recovered in Asia, but GWAM outflows remained weak,” said Mr. Dechaine.
* National Bank’s Don DeMarco raised his Torex Gold Resources Inc. (TXG-T) target to $101 from $98 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $95.
“[First-quarter] financials mixed and higher-than-expected costs, yet FCF harvesting continues with an elevated FCF yield, cash accretion and announced enhanced return of capital program, including dividend increase and share buybacks a step change higher,” said Mr. DeMarco