Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman sees a “good risk/reward” proposition for Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T) following a “massive” second-quarter earnings beat, leading him to upgrade his recommendation to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
On Wednesday before the bell, the Toronto-based company reported earnings per share, excluding purchase commitment expenses, of $2.20, exceeding both Mr. Goldman’s $1.85 estimate and the consensus of $1.85. Noting purchase commitment expenses were a below-the-line item, he thinks earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) is “a better barometer of performance, which beat consensus by 21 per cent driven by higher sales (1/3) and margins (2/3).”
“The stock has given up all the gains from the AVL announcement on June 17,” he said. “Two CAT downgrades (down 7 per cent on Wednesday) and general factor rotation doesn’t help,” said Mr. Goldman. “Neither does macro or investors fading the AI trade.
“But 2Q was objectively a good quarter. Excluding AVL, Equipment Group sales increased 9 per cent year-over-year including new/used up 10 per cent and product support up 8 per cent (mining up 18 per cent/construction up 6 per cent). This occurred in an environment where construction is still soft. Rental up 11 per cent year-over-year on improved utilization provides some greenshoots. AVL is ramping quicker than expected at Charlotte and should be at full capacity exiting 2026. EG margins tied a high-watermark for a 2Q. Yes, AVL helped, but mix and lower product support margins were a 180 basis points headwind per disclosures. CIMCO was weaker than expected, partially due to package timing.”
Despite the 20-per-cent earnings beat, Toromont shares closed down 1.2 per cent on low volume on Wednesday, which Mr. Goldman attributed to the outlook for data centers “given the base business is actually strengthening,.
“Rather than opine on the trajectory of capex and sentiment (notwithstanding AVL has visibility on orders out to 2027), we attempt to ringfence downside. TIH shares trade at 22.1 times P/E on our 2027E, the lowest since last September. Our best case/worst scenarios still offer a more than 2:1 risk/reward skew,” he noted.
“Toromont targets 18-per-cent ROE [return on equity] through the cycle. Based on 35-per-cent dividend payout ratio, we estimate the company can sustainably grow earnings at 12 per cent per year. Coincidentally, even after the recent selloff, shares have returned 14 per cent per year over the past five years. At 12-per-cent EPS growth, we estimate legacy can do $11/share by 2032. Applying historical P/E of 20.5-times discounted to PV, adding net cash and PV of AVL FCF, supports a floor price of $200/share (down 3 per cent).”
Mr. Goldman raised his target for Toromont shares by $1 to $239. The average target on the Street is $243.50.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target adjustments include:
* National Bank’s Maxim Sytchev to $261 from $259 with an “outperform” rating.
“We are getting two questions/comments on TIH now – 1) the sustainability of AVL momentum (company is taking orders as we speak, and we would be surprised if the $1-billion announcement is the last of its kind; that being said, AI narrative is lumpy, with any KOSPI-related/chip newsflow sending investors into a frenzy or depression; we don’t believe this dynamic is going to change unless there is a clear answer that AI trade is still ‘working’," said Mr. Sytchev. “There are some hiccups but the physical buildout is continuing… for now. 2) Without AVL there is no growth… well, when PS is up 8 per cent year-over-year, we strongly disagree while nation building projects are still very much ahead of us. On balance, despite extended valuation, we believe TIH can grow into its multiple, allowing the shares to compound. We reiterate our Outperform rating on TIH shares and inch our target price up.”
* RBC’s Sabahat Khan to $265 from $256 with an “outperform” rating.
“Toromont reported a strong Q2, with revenue/EBIT coming in well above consensus estimates (EPS also ahead when normalized for purchase commitment expenses). The share price reaction was negative for the day, though we attribute this to broader market factors (vs. anything disappointing in the results). We believe the favorable demand trends (supported by the $2.9-billion backlog) positions the company well for H2 and beyond,” said Mr. Khan.
* Raymond James’ Steve Hansen to $250 from $235 with an “outperform” rating.
“We are increasing our target price on Toromont Industries to $250.00 (vs. $235.00 prior) and reiterating our Outperform rating based upon: 1) the company’s strong 2Q26 print; 2) new record EG backlog ($2.5-billion); 3) extraordinary AVL/Power Systems momentum; 4) healthy Product Support growth; & 5) improving margin profile,” said Mr. Hansen.
* BMO’s Devin Dodge to $248 from $247 with an “outperform” rating.
“Against the backdrop of a strong backlog, a very active bid pipeline and investments to add capacity, we believe visibility into AVL’s growth trajectory is improving. The underlying fundamentals for the rest of the business are robust, and the company is well-positioned for secular demand tailwinds from nation building projects, defence spending and resource development in its territories. Meanwhile, the recent weakening of the momentum trade has weighed on the multiple, but we believe the risk/reward remains positive,” said Mr. Dodge.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk to $260 from $240 with a “buy” rating.
“AVL maintained its strong growth trajectory, delivering a 32-per-cent quarter-over-quarter revenue increase, matching the prior quarter’s performance. Fundamentals across the rest of the Equipment Group (EG) are favourable, supported by improving mining end-market demand, continued momentum in product support, and longer-term infrastructure and nation-building opportunities for construction equipment. Combined with a net cash position of ~$391 million, we continue to view Toromont as one of the premier industrial companies in our coverage universe,” said Mr. Lynk.
* TD Cowen’s Cherilyn Radbourne to $264 from $260 with a “buy” rating.
“Toromont posted a big EPS beat, led by a larger year-over-year contribution from AVL. Despite recent investor concern, U.S. data center demand remains robust and Canadian demand should ramp up, albeit on a much smaller scale. Importantly, core trends were healthy, with rental up 11 per cent and product support up 8 per cent. The backlog is a record and nation-building infrastructure projects are still to come,” she said.
With Allied Gold Corp. (AAUC-T) calling off its $5.5-billion takeover deal with Zijin Gold International Co., National Bank Financial analyst Mohamed Sidibé thinks the Street’s focus now turns to the Canadian gold miner’s “standalone fundamentals and likely trading range” with the geopolitical risks associated with its operations in Mali also gaining increased attention.
Its shares plummeted 18.6 per cent on Wednesday after the agreement failed to win approval from China’s foreign investment regulator within an acceptable time frame. The Chinese miner now plans to instead take a stake in Allied, acquiring a 9.2-per-cent holding worth $417-million.
“The key downside scenario raised by investors is an ex-Mali valuation,” he said. “On that basis, we calculate net asset value of $37 per share and NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA of $624-million at spot prices; applying our target multiples of 0.70 times NAV and 3.00 times EV/NTM EBITDA implies a price target of $21/sh..
“However, Zijin’s strategic investment softens the read-through, highlighting continued interest in Allied and suggesting a full removal of Mali may be overly punitive and expect the stock to bounce before the $21/sh level is reached. We believe a more appropriate de-risked approach to value the company is to apply a 50-per-cent discount to Mali, resulting in spot NAV of $56/sh, NTM EBITDA of US$776-million and a $29/sh price target.”
While acknowledging his new fundamental value calculation for Allied represents 17-per-cent upside, Mr. Sidibé emphasized “a re-rating will now heavily depend on successful execution of the Kurmuk ramp-up with first gold pour on track for Q3/26, while the rest of the portfolio operates in line.“
“Allied noted [Wednesday] morning that it expects to provide an updated H2/26 production outlook of 100–150 koz with its Q3/26 results,“ he said. ”We now model 2026 production of 100 koz from 125 koz.
“We therefore expect the market to treat AAUC as a show-me story until the ramp-up and longer-term FCF outlook are de-risked. A capital return program could also help rebuild confidence in the future FCF profile which remains attractive with 2027 FCF yield of 30 per cent ex Mali, well above peers.”
The analyst moved his rating for Allied to “sector perform” from “tender” previously with a $29 target, down from $44 and below the $44.33 average.
“Overall, we view the operating update as broadly supportive, with Q2 production essentially in line, sequentially lower AISC expected, and the portfolio still positioned for a stronger H2/26,” he added.
Elsewhere, others making rating revisions include:
* Stifel’s Ralph Profiti to “buy” from “hold” with a $56 target, up from $44.
“Post-transaction and Q2/26 operational updates, we view Allied as an attractively valued mid-tier gold producer trading at 0.38 times our NAVPS (US$55.15) and 1.3/1.2 times FY27/28 EV/EBITDA. In our view, the geopolitical situation in Mali remains complex and dynamic, but presently decoupled from the operational reality at Sadiola as mine processing and optimization initiatives continue to advance, and Kurmuk (Ethiopia) start-up remains on track for August 2026. We base our C$56.00 target price on 0.70 times P/NAV (Mali discount rate: 12 per cent),” said Mr. Profiti.
* CIBC’s Luke Bertozzi to “outperformer” from “tender” with a $39 target, down from $44.
“With first gold tracking for later in Q3, we believe investor focus will return to the company’s underlying fundamentals and approaching FCF inflection,” he said.
* ATB Cormark’s Nicolas Dion to “outperform” from “tender” with a $35 target, down from $44.
“Allied shares have sold off sharply on the Zijin news, presenting a potential buying opportunity as arbitrage traders are forced to exit the stock,” said Mr. Dion.
Following a “modest” second-quarter beat, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Walter Spracklin is continuing to forecast a double-digit earnings per share growth rate for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T) in 2026, which he expects will accelerate to mid-teen growth in 2027.
“We consider that run-rate to be superior to peers and argue for a re-rate in the shares to reflect,” he said in a note.
After the bell on Wednesday, CPKC reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.27, a gain of 13 per cent year-over-year and topping the $1.24 estimate of both Mr. Spracklin and the Street. He attributed the variance to higher yields (8.6 per cent versus his 4.1-per-cent projection) and a “slightly better” operating ratio (61.6 per cent versus 61.9 per cent with a lower number desired).
“As was the case across the rail sector, pricing took a significant step higher on the back of increased fuel surcharges and meaningfully higher truck rates,” the analyst said. “Moreover, management pointed to accelerating volumes - and we expect this indeed to be the case in Q3, where we have volumes increasing almost 6 per cent, vs 2.8 per cent in H1. While grain comps get notably tougher in Q4, we expect the higher pricing (which we have also taken up) should help CPKC achieve its full year double-digit guidance in 2026.
“CN/UNP MoU a focal point of the call. As expected, management provided its view on the recent trackage right swap between CN and UNP. CP notes that the CN service into Mexico at Eagles Pass up through the Memphis gateway is still a two-line service (CN + Ferromex), with a third line (UNP) still influencing the fluidity of the traffic along its line - and is therefore less concerned about the competitive impact that the new agreement would have on CPKC. And while CPKC saw the TRRA / KCT deal as successfully addressing concern regarding the independence of jointly owned terminals, CPKC mgmt still sees the deal as being not in the public interest and reiterated their argument along those lines.”
Mr. Spracklin largely maintained his forecast for CPKC as he continues “to see an upward multiple re-rate in the shares.”
“We are not making meaningful changes to our forward estimates on the view that we continue to believe that CPKC will hit its double-digit guidance in 2026; and we continue to call for mid-teen EPS growth in 2027. We see that EPS growth as superior to peers, and we therefore see the share’s current multiple on 2027E EPS (21.6 times vs peers at 21.8 times) as not appropriately reflecting the company’s sustainable earnings growth going forward. Accordingly, we continue to call for an upwards multiple re-rate to 24.5 times (from 23.5 times) which gives the target price of $145.”
Keeping his “outperform” rating, Mr. Spracklin’s target moved from $139 to $145. The average is $141.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target adjustments include:
* National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen to $140 from $132 with an “outperform” rating.
“Our estimates move slightly higher for both 2026 and 2027. Although a still uncertain outlook around North American trade remains a risk, we continue to like the earnings growth profile for CPKC (we forecast double-digit EPS growth in 2026 and 2027) supported by new business wins and merger synergies. We therefore maintain our Outperform rating on CPKC. We previously valued CPKC shares by applying a 23.0-times multiple to our 2027 EPS forecast, but to better reflect the expansion in peer group valuations, we are increasing our valuation multiple to 24.0 times, which, after our forecast adjustments, results in a new target,” said Mr. Doerksen.
* BMO’s Fadi Chamoun to $145 from $142 with an “outperform” rating.
“CPKC delivered an in-line Q2/26; better-than-expected yields were offset by higher fuel, stock-based compensation, and casualty costs. Underlying momentum in the business remains solid, with the network performing at record levels (we estimate CPKC is delivering incremental margins in the mid-70-per-cent range). Industry-leading volume/EPS guidance was reiterated, in line with expectations. We remain confident in CPKC’s ability to continue delivering differentiated growth, and valuation screens particularly attractive relative to peers,” said Mr. Chamoun.
* ATB Cormark’s Chris Murray to $143 from $137 with an “outperform” rating.
“CPKC delivered a strong quarter, with the EPS variance to ATBe driven primarily by productivity gains. Management reaffirmed guidance for low double-digit EPS growth in 2026, implying expectations for stronger growth in H2/26, with an improving freight backdrop, favourable FX movements, and greater network efficiency all supportive of its outlook. The results and outlook reaffirmed that CPKC is positioned to deliver mid-teens EPS growth in H2/26 and likely into 2027, given improving price/volume conditions, available capacity to support incremental volumes, and accretion from outsized buyback activity,” said Mr. Murray.
* Raymond James’ Steve Hansen to $144 from $140 with an “outperform” rating.
“We are bumping our target price on CPKC to $144.00 (vs. $140.00 prior) and reiterating our Outperform rating based upon the firm’s: 1) best-in-class operating momentum; 2) diverse basket of embedded growth/synergy opportunities; 3) renewed commitment to shareholder friendly policies (buybacks, dividend growth); and 4) solid 2026 RTM & EPS growth guides,” said Mr. Hansen.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $143 from $141 with a “buy” rating.
“CP delivered a slight 2Q26 beat and maintained its 2026 guidance. Accelerating volumes and operating leverage support a strong 2H outlook, with lower casualty costs expected vs 1H. FX should provide a modest tailwind, although high fuel prices and the lag in fuel surcharge recovery could create OR noise. The assumptions supporting our updated 2026 EPS growth forecast of 12 per cent are 4.2-per-cent RTM growth, 3.9-per-cent yield growth, an OR of 60.2 per cent (up 30 basis points vs 2025) and a 4.2-per-cent reduction in share count,” said Mr. Poirier.
* TD Cowen’s Cherilyn Radbourne to $134 from $128 with a “hold” rating.
“CPKC posted a modest Q2/26 EPS beat and continues to guide to low-double-digits 2026 EPS growth, which requires acceleration vs. 6-per-cent growth in H1/26. Grain/coal are key watch items. Grain remains strong to date in Q3/26, but it’s too early to predict the next crop. Coal is subject to customer production. CPKC’s franchise has less leverage to trucking vs. its peers, which puts its volume/ EPS growth premium at risk,” she said.
TD Cowen analyst David Kwan thinks the impact of artificial intelligence on CGI Inc.’s (GIB.A-T) business “remains a key question for investors” following Wednesday’s release of its third-quarter results.
“On the positive side, given the complexities and rapid evolution of AI, customers are looking to CGI to help them make their data/systems ready for advanced AI, deploy AI safely/securely, responsibly, and economically (e.g., optimizing token use), etc., which has helped drive the solid growth in SI&C revenue/bookings, which we think should continue due to strong customer need and CGI’s expertise,” he said. “Also, AI is helping CGI deliver its services/solutions at a lower cost, which could provide a NT boost to MS margins, particularly for contracts signed prior to the proliferation of GenAI. AI is also enabling CGI to take on IT projects that were previously deemed too risky and/or not economical, with CGI stating it has many of these opportunities in the pipeline.
“However, one of the key unknowns with AI is the impact it will have on CGI’s growth profile, as customers expect better pricing on SI&C/MS contracts and IP given CGI’s ability to deliver these services/solutions at an even lower cost. For MS, a major concern is how much AI-driven price deflation there will be when contracts come up for renewal. We understand that to date, CGI has been able to offset this pricing erosion through add-ons, scope changes, etc., with many customers reinvesting these savings into new work, providing CGI with opportunities to grow wallet share. We think it is still too early to assess the impact of AI on CGI’s business and that of its IT Services peers in the medium-to-long term but in the near term, we expect organic growth profiles to remain challenged.”
Shares of the Montreal-based firm jumped 4.3 per cent on Wednesday after it reported quarterly revenue of $4.193-billion and adjusted fully diluted earnings per share of $2.29. Both were narrowly higher than the Street’s expectations ($4.176-billion and $2.28) and represented year-over-year increases of 2.5 per cent and 9.0 per cent, respectively.
“Given the in-line results, we attribute the 4-per-cent share price increase Wednesday/mid-teens surge in the last week (which actually trails many peers) to the rapid shift in AI sentiment towards the AI Loser’ bucket,” said Mr. Kwan. “We expect the stock to be mainly driven by AI sentiment, at least until there is stronger evidence on the impact of AI on its business, which could mean continued elevated volatility.”
Maintaining his “hold” rating for CGI shares, Mr. Kwan hiked his target to $118 from $99. The average on the Street is $185.
“Our Hold rating reflects our concerns that the business will continue to face key headwinds, including macro/geopolitical and AI-driven, that will lead to continued low/negative (organic) growth,” he explained. “As well, the shares are trading at a 15-20-per-cent premium (EV/NTM EBITDA) to key comp, Accenture, compared to a historical discount of 25-per-cent, which could lead to further valuation downside (despite the valuation at the lowest in over a decade) or limit upside.”
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil to $118 from $117 with a “buy” rating.
“We believe the main reason for the stock’s strong performance [Wednesday] was the weakness of the AI/SOXX trade, and not the company’s results or commentary on the call,” said Mr. Dubreuil. “The quarter’s bookings, as well as comments made by peers ... suggest the company continues to face challenges; however, management expressed confidence in the quality of the demand pipeline. As opposed to last quarter, we’re comfortable with next quarter’s top-line consensus.”
* Stifel’s Suthan Sukumar to $120 from $110 with a “buy” rating.
“Our key takeaway from the FQ3 print is that CGI is benefiting from increasing vendor consolidation and reinvesting for growth, with hiring up 10 per cent quarter-over-quarter and up 50 per cent year-over-year (led by the U.S., across both Fed and commercial), signaling improving organic growth prospects over the remainder of the year,” said Mr. Sukumar. “Managed services bookings were lumpy, but a rebuilding pipeline (up 20 per cent year-over-year) and solid LTM [last 12-month] book-to-bill point to more recurring, higher-margin growth alongside SI&C strength, which is AI-led and a constructive cross-sell signal into more managed services. Net/net, industry organic growth likely stays lackluster, so stability should be rewarded. That said, M&A remains the biggest catalyst, with larger, more transformational deals still active in an increasingly attractive pipeline.”
Seeing a pullback in shares of Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW-T) creating an “attractive entry point” for investors, TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil raised his rating to “buy” from “hold” previously.
“TCW is down year-to-date despite positive macro tailwinds arising from the Iran conflict and Canada’s initiatives to develop new egress,” he said. “In Energy Opportunity Amid Global Conflict: Can Canada Meet the Moment?, we highlighted TCW as our pick for Energy Services exposure to rising Canadian condi demand."
While acknowledging Trican’s second quarter was “challenging,” Mr. MacNeil largely maintained his forecast for the Calgary-based company.
“As the only pure-play Canada energy services company in our coverage universe, and with significant Montney and Duvernay exposure, Trican is well positioned to benefit from long-term demand growth for condensate in Canada,” he said. “We highlight that Trican has also historically featured multiple expansion well in advance of fundamentals and as major energy infrastructure projects move through key credibility gates. Given its exposure to this, we have been waiting for an opportunity to get more constructive on this name, and believe that recent weakness creates a compelling buying opportunity.”
“Trican has generally featured positive estimate revisions over time and performs well relative to Drilling & Completions cycle-focused peers.”
His target remains $7.50. The average is $8.25.
Elsewhere, Raymond James’ Michael Barth cut his target to $6.75 from $7.50 with a “market perform” rating.
“TCW’s 2Q26 earnings results were materially below expectations, and while there are good reasons not to extrapolate that weakness entirely, we do revise our estimates modestly lower across the forecast period. Our target moves to $6.75/share ($7.50/share prior), and with the stock trading at 10-per-cent sustaining FCF yield on our FY26 estimates, we continue to see better risk-adjusted returns elsewhere,” he said.
In a client report released Thursday titled Good things come to those who store, Desjardins Securities analyst Brent Stadler called Rockpoint Gas Storage Inc. (RGSI-T) “a leading player in the natural gas storage infrastructure business, which should benefit from a number of material natural gas demand tailwind.”
He initiated coverage of the Calgary-based company with a “buy” rating ahead of the release of its second-quarter results on Aug. 5 before the bell.
“What we like. (1) RGSI is a leading player in critical natural gas storage infrastructure, which should benefit from strong natural gas demand tailwinds—including LNG export expansion (LNG Canada is now in service and ramping), increased demand for gas-fired power generation to firm up intermittent renewables and meet load growth (including from AI/data centres), and more extreme weather fluctuations, to name a few. (2) California (40 per cent of RGSI’s storage capacity) is a more mature market offering attractive economics on long-term contracts with growth, while the Alberta natural gas storage market (60 per cent of RGSI’s storage capacity) is at a growth inflection point on LNG export expansions, which has the potential to experience rapid growth (US Gulf Coast (USGC) is a good example). (3) Natural gas storage has significant barriers to entry," he explained.
Mr. Stadler emphasized Rockpoint is targeting a 15-per-cent total shareholder return (TSR), which he thinks is “achievable, underpinned by long-term contracts at attractive economics in California, while the Alberta storage market is at a growth inflection point which could follow the USGC natural gas storage market precedent and experience rapid growth.”
“We model pricing a bit conservative to management’s expectations out to FY29 and then assume long-term growth rates of approximately 2 per cent and 5 per cent in California and Alberta, respectively. We believe these long-term growth rates are conservative as we saw natural gas storage rates in the USGC increase by a 10-year 15-per-cent CAGR on the back of LNG export expansions.”
Mr. Stadler established a 12-month target of $33 per share, exceeding the average target on the Street of $32.80.
In other analyst actions:
* Coming off research restriction following the close of its bought deal offering, National Bank’s Don DeMarco bumped his target for shares of AbraSilver Resource Corp. (ABRA-T) to $22 from $21, which is the average on the Street, with an “outperform” rating.
“Liquidity boosted, and increasingly positioned to advance early works, permitting, EPCM selection, and project financing activities at Diablillos. Combined with a stronger DFS-supported valuation and visible catalyst path through FID in Q2/27, financing further mitigates near-term development risk,” said Mr. DeMarco.
* RBC’s Maurice Choy hiked his target for Atco Ltd. (ACO.X-T) to $80 from $71 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: TD Cowen’s John Mould to $76 from $69 with a “hold” rating and BMO’s Ben Pham to $85 from $72 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $53.
" The stronger-than-expected Q2/26 result continues to add credibility to our thesis that ATCO stands ready to benefit from favourable trends in energy, housing and defence. Backed by Canadian Utilities competitive 7-per-cent rate base CAGR on an equity self-funded basis, ATCO’s growing S&L opportunities (including within Canada’s North) has favourably shaped how the market now views the stock. Indeed, there is uncertainty in the timing of when some of these themes will meaningfully lead to incremental earnings; however, we recognize the durability of these themes moving forward, even as we remain neutral on the stock at current valuation levels," said Mr. Choy.
* National Bank’s Matt Kornack moved his Boardwalk REIT (BEI.UN-T) target to $81 from $79, exceeding the $79.16 average on the Street, with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Mario Saric to $74 from $74.50 with a “sector perform” rating and RBC’s Jimmy Shan to $84 from $81 with an “outperform” rating.
“We were expecting more muted operating performance based on disclosure at the REIT’s investor day with most of the key metrics pre-released and having made some downward adjustments to our numbers,” said Mr. Kornack. “In the end ops didn’t surprise, although BEI did continue to benefit from strict cost controls from both an opex and G&A standpoint (with positive variances to our forecast). Bigger news in the quarter related to an ongoing and substantial disposition program with funds being deployed to buyback shares at a sizable discount to the REIT’s book value. We continue to like BEI as a way to get exposure to heightened infrastructure investment in Western Canada, which should inevitably translate into improved employment/wages.”
* Following better-than-expected quarterly results and a reaffirmation of its five-year capital plan, National Bank’s Patrick Kenny increased his Canadian Utilities Ltd. (CU-T) target to $55 from $51 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Ben Pham to $55 from $50 with a “market perform” rating, TD Cowen’s John Mould to $52 from $48 with a “hold” rating and RBC’s Maurice Choy to $58 from $50 with a “sector perform” rating.. The average is $50.
“Canadian Utilities’ stock has meaningfully outperformed its immediate peers and materially tightened the valuation gap over recent months. While helped by the lack of viable alternatives in the broader market, the market is also rewarding CU for many of its near-term positives, particularly its competitive, equity self-funded 7-per-cent rate base CAGR, backed by the marquee Yellowhead Pipeline project. As we look forward to seeing this project complete in Q4/27, we are guardedly optimistic of any potential midstream initiative at CU, as we anchor ourselves on management’s known approach of taking measured, low-risk steps in any new pursuit,” said Mr. Choy.
* Scotia’s Robert Hope trimmed his Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T) target to $79 from $80, which is the average on the Street, keeping a “sector outperform” rating, while BMO’s Ben Pham moved his target to $81 from $85 with an “outperform” rating.
“The key takeaway from the quarter for us was Capital Power increasing its 2030 EBITDA uplift opportunity to $1.25-billion from $1.0-billion. The company is seeing increasingly attractive contracting opportunities as well as strengthening merchant margins as electricity demand picks up across the continent. Management highlighted numerous data centre opportunities across its asset base, though no announcements were made. It also appears that management is increasingly evaluating brownfield expansions of its sites, which we would expect would be backed by data centre customers. That said, we bring down our go forward estimates to reflect higher Corporate costs, which also reduces our target by $1. We remain bullish on the shares with further upside potential from re-contracting opportunities, M&A optionality and data centre announcements,” said Mr. Hope.
* RBC’s Greg Pardy bumped his Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T) target to $51 from $47 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Chris MacCulloch to $51 from $49 with a “sector outperform” rating, TD Cowen’s Menno Hulshof to $49 from $46 with a “buy” rating and Raymond James’ Michael Barth increased his target to $46 from $41 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $46.
“Cenovus Energy delivered robust second-quarter results top-to-bottom along with a favorable guidance outlook which points toward higher production and lower unit operating costs this year,” said Mr. Pardy. “What stood out most to us from the company’s conference call was its resource depth, multitude of upstream growth options, and significant improvement in execution both upstream and downstream.”
“Our bullish stance towards Cenovus reflects its capable leadership team, shareholder alignment, unmistakable operating momentum, free cash flow generation and enhanced portfolio via the MEG Energy acquisition/WRB disposition. ”
* TD Cowen’s Steven Green bumped his Centerra Gold Inc. (CG-T) target to $32 from $31, keeping a “buy” rating. Other changes include: ATB Cormark’s Richard Gray to $27 from $26 with a “sector perform” rating and Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur to $29 from $28 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $29.91.
“We have updated our estimates following Q2 results and increased FY26 guidance. Higher production at Öksüt drives a 4-per-cent increase in our 2026 EBITDA estimate, while our 2027 outlook remains largely unchanged. Management also reinforced confidence in its organic growth pipeline, with the Thompson Creek restart progressing as planned,” said Mr. Green.
* RBC’s Darko Mihelic hiked his Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO-T) target to $91 from $77 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Tom MacKinnon to $92 from $90 with a “market perform” rating, Scotia’s Mike Rizvanovic to $100 from $95 with a “sector outperform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young to $95 from $93. The average is $94.
“GWO’s Q2/26 base EPS was stronger than our estimate, mainly driven by higher than expected results across most segments except Canada,” said Mr. Mihelic. “GWO reiterated that Empower is on track to generate double-digit organic base earnings growth in 2026 and the lifeco expects continued strong demand in Capital Solutions to persist through 2026. We model a healthy degree of buybacks and see GWO hitting a 21.2-per-cent base ROE in 2028 – using a very low risk premium we see a lot of this already reflected in the stock price.”
* ATB Cormark’s Stefan Ioannou cut his Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T) target to $35 from $35.50 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Matthew Murphy to $44 from $46 with an “outperform” rating, Scotia’s Orest Wowkodaw to $43 from $44 with a “sector outperform” rating and Canaccord Genuity’s Dalton Baretto to $39.50 from $40 with a “buy” rating. The average is $43.
“A modest Q2/26A CFPS miss largely reflects a concentrate sales (vs. production) lag in Peru that was ‘reconciled’ in early July. More pertinently, Hudbay’s growth profile continues to take shape across multiple assets—setting the stage for a medium-term step-change in production,” said Mr. Ioannou.
* National Bank’s Jaeme Gloyn increased his IGM Financial Inc. (IGM-T) target to $92 from $91 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Phil Hardie to $87 from $84 with a “sector perform” rating and TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding moved his target to $94 from $92 with a “buy” rating. The average is $81.50.
“IGM built on its solid start to the year with record-high Core EPS, driven by robust operational momentum and a strong market rally that lifted AUM&A to new highs. The company delivered a relatively broad based top line beat, with all segments outperforming and Core EPS coming in 10 per cent ahead of street expectations. The quarter also saw IGM return a record level of capital to shareholders through its dividend and buyback program and raise the carrying value of its Wealthsimple stake by 15 per cent.
“Raising target to $87 and maintaining Sector Perform Rating. Despite the increase to our target price, our expected one-year rate of return is narrow. We remain on the sidelines for now, given an uncertain market outlook following an unexpectedly strong rally over the past year and lingering risks” said Mr. Hardie.
* RBC’s Bart Dziarski moved his target for Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T) to $308 from $299 with a “sector perform” rating, while Scotia’s Phil Hardie cut his target to $325 from $330 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $325.
“IFC’s Q2/26 results marked the second consecutive disappointing quarter driving a negative 7-per-cent share price reaction. We balance IFC’s 17-per-cent ROE and excess capital with our tempered premium growth outlook and delayed UK&I turnaround. IFC trades in-line with its 5-year average valuation (both on P/B & P/E), which we believe is fair,” said Mr. Dziarski.
* TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil lowered his Precision Drilling Corp. (PD-T) target to $116 from $124 with a “hold” rating, while ATB Cormark’s Tim Monachello reduced his target to $160 from $165 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $160.
“Following a 27-per-cent pullback from recent highs, PD is among the most attractively valued companies in our coverage universe. However, given prevailing macro volatility, we would like to see more tangible evidence of a recovery in its U.S. margin performance before we get more constructive on this name, all else equal. PT decreases to $116 to reflect broader sector multiple contraction,” said Mr. MacNeil.
* Stifel’s Ryan Walker initiated coverage of Vancouver-based Rio2 Ltd. (RIO-T) with a “buy” rating and $6.10 target. The average is $5.43.
“An investment in Rio2 Ltd. affords investors exposure to ramping-up lower-cost gold production (we model Life of Mine [LOM] average of 81k/oz at AISC of US$1,451/oz, excluding stream & prepay impacts) at Fenix backstopped by proven steady cashflow from Condestable,” he said.
“While RIO shares have seen significant recent appreciation, we contend that further re-rating potential exists as the company continues to de-risk and ramp-up production at Fenix and fully integrates the Condestable mine. Such re-rating potential should be bolstered by the delivery of various technical documents related to each mine’s expansion and the subsequent timely government approval and execution of such expansions.”
* TD Cowen’s Aaron Bilkoski bumped his Spartan Delta Corp. (SDE-T) target to $17 from $16, exceeding the $15.67 average, with a “buy” rating.
“Recent delineation success supports a larger, faster-growing Duvernay development than we previously contemplated. We believe the market has yet to recognize the next rung of value creation, with our updated Duvernay valuation alone exceeding Spartan’s current enterprise value. We see the Duvernay alone being worth $15.50+/sh – potentially more if production ramps to a higher plateau sooner," said Mr. Bilkoski.
* BMO’s Jeremy McCrea initiated coverage of Tenaz Energy Corp. (TNZ-T) with an “outperform” rating and $70 target. The average is $80.
“As one of the best-performing E&P names year-to-date, Tenaz remains uniquely positioned as it combines high-margin European gas exposure, a long-life asset base, and highly visible organic growth anchored by existing infrastructure in the Dutch North Sea. With strong economic wells that show multiple payouts, and an offshore regulatory environment offering seemingly unrestricted growth, the combination creates the ability for shareholders to see plenty of ‘value creation’ over the coming years. In time, this should reflect in a multiple valuation re-rate,” said Mr. McCrea.
* National Bank’s Jaeme Gloyn reduced his target for Timbercreek Financial Corp. (TF-T) to $6.50 from $7 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: Raymond James’ Stephen Boland to $7.25 from $7.50 with an “outperform” rating and Canaccord Genuity’s Zachary Weisbrod to $6.25 from $6.75 with a “hold” rating. The average is $7.06.
“Another quarter that reflects the transitional nature of the business as TF continues to work through a still sizable impaired loan portfolio (driving consistently higher credit losses as loans resolve). On the positive side, TF reported a stable weighted average interest rate earned (a previously persistent headwind), strong originations (and a robust pipeline) and stable distributable income that exceeded the common dividend,” said Mr. Gloyn.
Editor’s note: CIBC analyst Luke Bertozzi was incorrectly identified in an earlier version of this article. It has been updated.