Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber expects Shopify Inc. (SHOP-N, SHOP-T) to “face growth headwinds over the next several quarters, as a result of the inflationary impact of tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption.”
“Shares are likely to remain volatile and valuation may be pressured in the near-term,” he warned. “We’re maintaining our Outperform recommendation, as Shopify is one of the most compelling long-term organic growth stories in our coverage.”
In a research report released Thursday, Mr. Treiber lowered his full-year revenue estimate for the Ottawa-based e-commerce giant to US$10.5-billion from US$10.83-billion previously, representing an 18-per-cent year-over-year gain. His adjusted earnings per share projection slid to US$1.44 from US$1.51, a gain of 15 per cent from the same-period a year ago.
“Our scenario analysis suggests a downside of $9.5-billion revenue and $1.00 adj. EPS in FY25,” he added.
“Data points indicate Q1 is likely in line or slightly short of consensus, which calls for revenue up 25 per cent year-over-year to $2.3-billlion and adj. EPS up 27 per cent to $0.25. U.S. Census e-commerce data implies Shopify’s Q1 GMV grows 21.4 per cent year-over-yea to $73.9-billion, slightly below consensus at $74.8-billion. Positively, Store Leads indicates Shopify’s ‘active stores’ increased 4 per cent quarter-over-quarter, faster than 1 per cent Q4 and our estimate for 1 per cent. Additionally, Shopify’s job postings remain muted, implying potential upside to Q1 margins.”
The analyst emphasized emphasizing tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption are “headwinds to growth” beyond the quarter.
“We estimate U.S. dropshipping accounts for 5-10 per cent of Shopify’s total GMV,” he said. “The removal of the de minimis exemption on packages from China are likely to lead to a material reduction in Shopify’s dropshipping GMV in the near-term (our revised estimates reflect a 50-per-cent drop). Additionally, we estimate China sourced products represent 25-30 per cent of imports in Shopify’s core verticals; inflationary pressure as a result of tariffs are a likely headwind to global discretionary consumer spending.
“‘Arming the rebels’. Shopify’s value to merchants is its ability to rapidly deliver innovative new solutions to address challenges. In this environment, Shopify may see increased uptake of Shopify Collective, Markets Pro, and Capital, among other solutions. Also, Shopify may gain market share against e-commerce platforms that aren’t as innovative, while its merchants may take share against China-based marketplaces.”
With his “outperform” rating, Mr. Treiber cut his target for Shopify shares to US$125 from US$145. The average target on the Street is US$128.13, according to LSEG data.
“Given tariff/macro concerns, Shopify’s valuation has dropped to 9.9 times NTM EV/S [next 12-month enterprise value to sales], below its 3-year pre-COVID average (13 times), though remains above fast-growing SaaS peers (8.6 times),” he said. “We are reducing our price target from $145.00 to $125.00, which is now based on 12 times CY26e EV/S, down from 14 timesprior, as we believe valuation is likely to remain below Shopify’s 3- year pre-COVID average in the short-term. We maintain our Outperform recommendation as we believe Shopify is one of the most compelling long-term organic growth stories in our coverage.”
=====
Ahead of the May 1 release of its first-quarter 2025 financial results, Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) continues to benefit from “supportive” end markets, according to National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen, who thinks demand for business jets “still looks relatively healthy” despite macroeconomic uncertainty.
“Bombardier shares have been hard hit so far in 2025 due to the threat of tariffs, and while the tariff situation remains fluid, as it stands today, Bombardier aircraft do not face any U.S. import tariffs (all aircraft compliant with USMCA), which should offer some relief for investors,” he said. “However, market concern has now shifted to risks around broader macroeconomic growth and the risk of a slowdown in new business jet demand. If demand for new business jets does slow, we see Bombardier as well positioned.”
Mr. Doerksen thinks a “solid” backlog provides visibility for both the Montreal-based manufacturer and investors, and he emphasized “high-end business jet segment [has been] more stable through the cycle.”
“At the end of Q4/24, Bombardier’s backlog sat at $14.4 billion or roughly two years of deliveries,” he said. “Given the large non-refundable deposits on orders (especially on Global model high-end jets), material cancellations of orders are unlikely, in our view.”
“The light jet market is more cyclical, but Bombardier does not participate in that market segment. By contrast, the large and ultra-long range segment (Bombardier Global 5500/6500 and 7500 models) has historically been stable through the cycle. Indeed, Global model deliveries were steady during the 2008-09 recession and the years immediately following. We estimate that Global models will make up approximately 65 per cent or more of total new jet delivery revenue for Bombardier this year.”
Mr. Dorksen raised his revenue and earnings per share projections for the quarter to $1.638-billion and 76 cents, respectively, from $1.548-billion and 75 cents. The current consensus estimates are $1.537-billion and 65 cents.
“Given the still high degree of uncertainty around global trade, we would not expect Bombardier to issue formal 2025 guidance yet (recall that the company deferred any formal guidance when reporting Q4/24 results),” he said. “Our 2025 numbers remain relatively conservative, notably for free cash flow, which we forecast at $549 million in 2025 versus Bombardier’s original target of $900-plus million. Given uncertain markets, we suspect that the 2025 book-to-bill will come in below 1.0 times (the FCF target was based on a 1.0 times book-to-bill) which would lead to fewer new order deposits impacting cash inflows (consensus 2025 FCF is $766 million).
He added “According to business aviation data provider WingX, global business jet departures in Q1 were up 3 per cent year-over-year and 34 per cent higher than Q1/19 as flying activity has remained relatively strong throughout the tariff-driven economic uncertainty. Additionally, data from Aviation Week indicates that business jet utilization at most large fleet operators was also up year-over-year in Q1 with NetJets flying hours up 8 per cent year-over-year, Flexjet’s up 18 per cent year-over-year and VistaJet’s down only 1 per cent.”
Maintaining his “outperform” recommendation for Bombardier shares, Mr. Doerksen raised his target to $107 from $103. The average is $114.29.
=====
National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar thinks Metro Inc.’s (MRU-T) “good sales performance” in the second quarter of its fiscal 2025 reaffirmed its “defensive credibility.”
“MRU reiterated its medium/long-term annual EPS growth target of 8-10 per cent; history has shown that MRU has navigated various macroeconomic backdrops successfully,” he said. “Customer behaviour remains consistent quarter-to-date (stable discount/conventional gap, value focus, etc.), and MRU has seen a growing ‘Buy Canadian’ movement (growing gap between Canadian product and total sales). Our view is that Canadian grocers are gaining share from U.S. retailers. Tariffs have not materially impacted retail inflation (limited SKUs impacted), although the backdrop is fluid.
“We made slight revisions to our EPS estimates: F2025 remains $4.85 and F2026 goes to $5.35 from $5.36.”
Shares of the Montreal-based grocery retailer closed marginally higher on Wednesday after it reported revenue of $4.910-billion, rising from $4.656-billion a year ago and exceeding both Mr. Shreedhar’s $4.887-billion estimate and the consensus projection of $4.861-billion. EBITDA rose to $461-million from $439-million, falling narrowly under the analyst’s $467-million expectation but matching the Street’s forecast.
“We view results to be largely in line, with sales performance being noteworthy; SG&A was higher than modeled and a key delta versus our forecast,” he said. “Positively, MRU gained market share and indicated that the impact of tariffs, to date, have not materially impacted MRU.”
Reiterating his “sector perform” rating for Metro shares, Mr. Shreedhar raised his target to $107 from $102. The current average is $101.30.
“We believe Metro is a solid company which has delivered solid long-term returns; however, these attributes are adequately reflected in valuation,” he said.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target adjustments include:
* Scotia’s John Zamparo to $110 from $100 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“We continue to see Metro as a relative safe haven in an uncertain climate for consumer spending this year. MRU and the grocers more broadly can be considered a crowded trade, though we’re reluctant to think investors will sell arguably the most predictable businesses in this environment. We’ve increased our target P/E multiple to 21 times (20 times prior) and now look to the average of C25 and C26 for valuation. This multiple exceeds MRU’s 20 times historical peak; we believe uncharted territory for Canadian consumers (plus a scarcity of perceived quality within the sector) means uncharted multiples as well,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $105 from $95 with a “hold” rating.
“The key highlight from the solid 2Q was strong same-store sales in Food and Jean Coutu, partly offset by SG&A pressures from higher energy costs and online partnership fees. To date, tariffs and counter-tariffs have not had a material impact,” said Mr. Li. “Despite the near-term economic uncertainty, we expect EPS growth to accelerate to 14 per cent year-over-year in 2H from 10 per cent in 1H. MRU is a strong retailer and well-positioned to achieve consistent long-term EPS growth of 8–10 per cent. The limited potential return keeps us from being more positive.”
=====
Stifel analyst Ian Gillies thinks first-quarter results for Canadian industrial companies are “likely to be fine,” however he does not expect investors to “care one way or another give how much changed during the quarter.”
“Canadian 4Q24 quarterly reporting occurs from late February to Mid-March in many instances, so we do not anticipate any significant surprises from quarterly results,” he said in a Thursday report. “At current, we are 5 per cent or more below consensus EBITDA for BDGI, BDT, DBM, MATR, NEO and RUS. We are not meaningfully above consensus for any company in our coverage list.
“Uncertainty is the enemy of spending: We anticipate outlooks to weaken with the release of 1Q25 results. In our view, decision paralysis will be caused by uncertainty, and that is going to be almost as bad as potential tariffs. In our experience, a lack of certainty over potential costs for new capital projects will harm confidence and thus lower spending. This is likely to manifest itself in weak book-to-bill ratios for long cycle stocks later in 2025E and weakening near-term revenue trends for short cycle stocks. The “hard” data such as non-resi spending is not yet reflecting these changes but survey data is. For example, the Dodge Momentum Index was down 6.9% in March 2025 after accelerating in the prior three months, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey reached a 34-month low of 50.8, while some of our colleague Brian Brophy’s survey work here and here is already suggesting a slowdown (even if not pronounced yet).”
While noting only three companies in his coverage universe providedd formal 2025 guidance, Mr. Gillies thinks the outlook for the remainder of 2025 “will be what matters, but it is still too early to expect clairvoyance.”
“The 90-day tariff reprieve was welcomed, but implementation is still an overhang on potential cost structures, in addition to a high likelihood of end-market demand destruction,” he explained. “These two factors will make providing outlooks challenging for most companies in our coverage universe. We have only embedded potential impacts from tariffs in our models where there is some certainty (e.g. ASTL) and have taken an initial stab at factoring in weaker demand (and degradation in margins due to weaker operating leverage). We lowered estimates for most companies upon receipt of 4Q24 results and with this update we are further reducing our 2025E EBITDA forecasts by 5 per cent on average (ex-ASTL). Since the beginning of 2025E, we have reduced our 2025E revenue and EBITDA forecasts by 2 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively (ex-ASTL). We have lowered 2026E EBITDA by 5 per cent on average with this update.”
Emphasizing “company specific impacts from tariffs are still a dart throw,” Mr. Gillies made these target price revisions:
- Adentra Inc. (ADEN-T, “buy”) to $36 from $41. The average on the Street is $45.50.
- Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T, “buy”) to $16 from $19. Average: $26.50.
- Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL-T, “hold”) to $14.75 from $15.25. Average: $15.67.
- AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T, “buy”) to $96 from $100. Average: $93.31.
- Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T, “buy”) to $46.50 from $53. Average: $50.47.
- Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T, “buy”) to $34.50 from $37. Average: $33.38.
- Doman Building Materials Group Ltd. (DBM-T, “buy”) to $8 from $9. Average: $10.29.
- Mattr Corp. (MATR-T, “buy”) to $12 from $14. Average: $15.81.
- Russel Metals Inc. (RUS-T, “buy”) to $54 from $60. Average: $53.83.
- Stantec Inc. (STN-T, “buy”) to $143 from $150. Average: $142.45.
- WSP Global Inc. (WSP-T, “buy”) to $300 from $310. Average: $293.29.
=====
RBC Capital Markets analyst Rob Mann said “minimal near-term visibility toward any meaningful catalysts” for Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE-T) gives him “pause,” emphasizing “it would not surprise us to see the company potentially take a step back on its activity levels this year.”
Accordingly, as the Calgary-based company “remains in the process of assessing its full-year 2025 development plans and longer-term strategic direction following its transaction with InPlay Oil Corp., citing the choppy macroeconomic environment,” he lowered the firm’s rating for its shares to “sector perform” from “outperform” after assuming coverage on Thursday.
“Obsidian Energy’s disposition announced in February of some 10,300 boe/d of Pembina Cardium assets to InPlay Oil Corp. for total gross proceeds of $320 million came as a surprise to us,” he said. “That said, the deal allows for the company to make progress toward strengthening its balance sheet, intensify its focus on Peace River development, and reduce its asset retirement obligations (ARO) by over half—all of which we believe have merit given the price received. That said, the company has yet to re-frame its longer-term growth plans and full-year 2025 guidance, citing the choppy macroeconomic environment. Obsidian also expects flat production from Peace River in the first half of the year given the cadence of its drilling activity, alongside disappointing well performance results in the play within the company’s most recent operations update. At this time, a seemingly lack of overall strategic direction and minimal near-term visibility toward any meaningful catalyst give us pause, and it would not surprise us to see the company potentially take a step back on its activity levels this year. We continue to point toward owning high quality names and/or names with near-term positive catalysts in the face of ongoing geopolitical issues and commodity price volatility.”
Moving forward, Mr. Mann said he liked to see “a balanced, measured, and formalized approach to production growth, shareholder returns, and further net debt reduction would be well received by investors.”
“Beyond the company’s use of some $211 million in cash disposition proceeds that were directed toward the balance sheet, we do not anticipate that Obsidian will generate positive free cash flow (on gross capital expenditures) under our base outlook this year, as well as in 2026E, pointing toward minimal shareholder returns and net debt inflecting higher,” he added.
The analyst has a $10 target for Obsidian shares, down from the firm’s previous $12 target. The current average is $12.40.
“Under our base outlook, Obsidian is trading at a 2025E debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 3.2 times (vs. our oil-weighted Canadian E&P peer group average of 3.9 times) and at a negative free cash flow yield (vs. peers at 9 per cent),” he said. “We believe that Obsidian should trade at an average/modest discount relative valuation given the upside potential with the company’s Peace River portfolio, partly offset by its limited scale and lack of visibility towards its growth plans.”
=====
In a separate report, Mr. Mann said he sees “a landmark year” ahead for Cardinal Energy Ltd. (CJ-T).
“In our view, 2025 marks a pivotal year for Cardinal as the company’s strategic shift toward thermal development takes shape via the pending completion of its first steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) project — Reford — expected on-stream later this year,” he said. “The successful completion and ramp-up of the 6,000 bbl/d project is set to serve as a positive catalyst for Cardinal, driving greater free cash flow generation via improved netbacks (all else equal) and lower sustaining capital requirements, thereby accelerating deleveraging progress, supporting the base dividend, lowering Cardinal’s WTI breakeven, and providing funding for potential future thermal development within its opportunity set.
“While committed capital expenditures this year hinder the company’s ability to generate meaningful free cash flow in 2025, Cardinal’s relatively low leverage and ample liquidity give us confidence in its ability to execute its capital program and fund the base dividend. In the meantime, while the inflection point is set to come in 2026, investors are compensated for their patience through the company’s base dividend, currently yielding 13%, which we view as defensible given the company’s ample liquidity.”
Touting “the company’s forthcoming catalyst from the completion and ramp-up of Reford, alongside relatively low leverage and ample liquidity to navigate its portfolio transition this year,” Mr. Mann assumed coverage of the Calgary-based company and raised the firm’s recommendation to “outperform” from “sector perform” with a $7.50 target, up from $7. The current average is $7.20.
“Under our base outlook, Cardinal is trading at a 2026 estimated debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 5.6 times (vs. oil-weighted Canadian intermediate E&P peers at 4.5 times) and at a free cash flow yield of 6 per cent (vs. peers at 4 per cent),” he said. “We believe that Cardinal should trade at an average valuation reflective of its steady operating performance, low-decline portfolio, strong balance sheet and its long-term strategic shift toward thermal development, partially offset by risk associated with successful execution of Reford.”
=====
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Keith Mackey thinks the stocks of North American oilfield services providers have been oversold in recent weeks as tariff and macro concerns have “taken hold.”
However, he noted his estimates entering the year “reflected a modest recovery into 2026,” which he now thinks is less likely.
“We are reducing our 2025 EBITDA estimates by 4 per cent and our 2026 by 11 per cent on average, based on modestly lower global rig count forecasts for 2025/26,” said Mr. Mackey. “That said, stock price moves since 2 April imply about a 13-per-cent average reduction to 2025 and 2026, signalling a potential oversold scenario for patient investors. We have not seen meaningful E&P knee-jerk budget reductions, but expect cost (i.e., tariff) uncertainty to make it harder for E&Ps to underwrite renewed investment and producers on the higher end of the cost curve may be left choosing between maintaining capex, shareholder returns, or debt levels. We have lowered price targets for 17 stocks under coverage by an average of 16 per cent. Reductions are generally due to lower earnings estimates versus reductions in multiples.”
For TSX-listed stocks, his target changes are:
- Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW-T, “sector perform”) to $3.75 from $4.50. The average is $4.92.
- CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T, “outperform”) to $10 from $11. Average: $10.78.
- Enerflex Ltd. (EFXT-N/EFX-T, “outperform”) to US$12 from US$14. Average: US$12.
- Ensign Energy Services Ltd. (ESI-T, “outperform”) to $2.50 from $3.50. Average: $3.38.
- Pason Systems Inc. (PSI-T, “outperform”) to $16 from $18. Average: $16.70.
- Precision Drilling Corp. (PD-T, “outperform”) to $89 from $110. Average: $113.36.
- Step Energy Services Ltd. (STEP-T, “sector perform”) to $4.25 from $5. Average: $5.18.
- Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW-T, “outperform”) to $5.50 from $6. Average: $5.81.
=====
TD Cowen’s Sean Steuart reduced his estimates for Canadian paper and forest products compamies on Thursday, seeing rising recession risks and “inconsistent momentum” heading into earnings season.
“Our Q1 estimates are below consensus forecasts for most names as a slowdown in volumes toward quarter-end coincided with higher input and operating costs,” he said. “We have adjusted estimates to reflect an expectation of incremental tariffs applied to U.S. imports of Canadian lumber (mitigated by higher lumber prices) and lower 2026 commodity price forecasts for most products outside lumber.”
“We expect weaker sequential (q/q) Q1 results for five of nine equities in our coverage set. In most cases, our Q1 forecasts are below consensus estimates (no notable upside outliers). We expect that negative developments (volume pressure, operating cost inflation, planned maintenance/start-up costs, lower OSB prices) will offset tailwinds (rising lumber prices, currency). Material downside outliers: IFP; CAS; and MERC.”
With higher lumber prices offset by the impact tariffs, Mr. Steuart lowered his targets for stocks in his coverage universe. His changes include:
- Cascades Inc. (CAS-T, “buy”) to $12 from $16. The average is $13.17.
- CCL Industries Inc. (CCL.B-T, “buy”) to $90 from $94. Average: $90.40.
- Canfor Corp. (CFP-T, “buy”) to $17 from $19. Average: $19.
- Interfor Corp. (IFP-T, “hold”) to $16 from $20. Average: $22.42.
- KP Tissue Inc. (KPT-T, “hold”) to $8 from $8.50. Average: $8.38.
- Western Forest Products Inc. (WEF-T, “hold”) to 45 cents from 55 cents. Average: 56 cents.
- West Fraser Timber Co. (WFG-N/WFG-T, “buy”) to US$99 from US$110. Average: US$102.
=====
In other analyst actions:
* Citi’s Vikram Bagri downgraded Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP-Q, BLDP-T) to “sell” from “neutral” with a US$1, down from US$1.50. The average is US$1.90.
“While we appreciate proactive cost cutting, comparative financial discipline, and capex light business model, we believe the macro headwinds faced by green hydrogen economy will prove to be difficult to overcome. Headwinds include uncertainty on tax credits, delays to existing funding, push outs of FID on projects, prevalence of lower cost technologies, weakness of certain customers, and competition from established players. This all weighs on the outlook for Truck adoption of hydrogen, which relies on established fuel infrastructure and attractive H2 cost relative to alternatives,” said Mr. Bagri.
* In an earnings preview for real estate services provider, CIBC’s Scott Fletcher downgraded Information Services Corp. (ISC-T) to “neutral” from “outperformer” with a $30 target, down from $32 and below the $33.40 average on the Street.
“We have concerns around the impact of tariffs on the Saskatchewan economy as well as a lack of meaningful near-term catalysts and trading liquidity,” he said.
Mr. Fletcher also reduced his targets for Altus Group Ltd. (AIF-T, “neutral”) to $54 from $57 and Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI-Q/CIGI-T, “outperformer”) to US$146 from US$150. The averages are $60.14 and US$164, respectively.
* JP Morgan’s Ken Worthington trimmed his Brookfield Corp. (BN-N, BN-T) target to US$65 from US$66 with an “overweight” recommendation. The average is US$64.57.
* JP Morgan’s cut his Celestica Inc. (CLS-N, CLS-T) target to US$105 from US$166 with an “overweight” rating. The average is US$135.69.
* In a utility earnings preview, Raymond James’ Theo Genzebu reduced his targets for Emera Inc. (EMA-T, “outperform”) to $59 from $64, Fortis Inc. (FTS-T, “market perform”) to $62.50 from $69 and Hydro One Ltd. (H-T, “market perform”) to $45 from $48. The average is $59.45, $65.63 and $46.38.
“Q25 ended on a positive note for the Canadian utilities in our coverage, with Algonquin, Emera, Fortis, and Hydro One all realizing solid share price performance for the quarter and year-to-date (approximately 12 per cent and 13 per cent on average, respectively), beating the broader index (S&P/TSX up 1 per cent and down 3 per cent, respectively),” he said. “Further, we believe that the utilities’ share price performance within our coverage continues to hold up well vs. other rate-sensitive names during this elevated interest rate and inflationary environment. Although the estimated demand for AI/data centers has come into question by investors as of late, we do believe that the importance/use of AI/data centers remains intact and its needs for power consumption and the grid infrastructure that it requires will continue to grow. As mentioned in our 2025 Outlook, we believe the utilities within our coverage are poised to benefit from this long-term tailwind—with Fortis and Emera benefiting the most—but remain tempered by short-term hurdles. We are releasing our FY2026 estimates and increasing our target price for each of Emera, Fortis, and Hydro One”
* Ahead of its April 24 earnings release, Scotia’s Himanshu Gupta cut his FirstService Corp. (FSV-Q, FSV-T) target to US$210 from US$217.50 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is US$206.
“FSV stock has pulled back 5 per cent since Q4 results, despite 2025 guidance in line with Street. Management mentioned that backlog of reconstruction work is taking longer to convert on Q4 call, and therefore lack of visibility on storm-related revenues in H1/25 perhaps led to stock price underperformance since then. We have only $20-million of storm-related revenues in H1/25 (vs $50-milllion at time of Q4 results), and as such bar is set low on this front (this time),” said Mr. Gupta.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan lowered his target for Parkland Corp. (PKI-T) to $42 from $45 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: ATB Capital Markets’ Nate Heywood to $45 from $46 with an “outperform” rating and Raymond James’ Steve Hanse to $45 from $47 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $46.36.
“We are trimming our target price on Parkland Corp. ... following [Wednesday’s] surprise company update that revealed: 1) longtime President & CEO Bob Espey will step down in response to intensifying pressure from Parkland’s largest shareholder, Simpson Oil Limited (Simpson); and, 2) preliminary 1Q25 Adj. EBITDA is guided at $375-million, landing well below both the Street & RJL estimates, with management now guiding 2025 to the low-end of its $1.8-$2.1-billion range,” said Mr. Hansen. “Speaking plainly, this update strikes us as an astonishing development only three weeks ahead of PKI’s highly anticipated AGM, one that: 1) represents a clear setback for existing PKI leadership; and 2) likely tips the scales toward Simpson’s proposed plan/slate.”
* Jefferies’ Kylie Cohu reduced her Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T) target to $32 from $37, which is the current average, with a “buy” rating.
* In an earnings preview for utility and energy infrastructure company, Scotia’s Robert Hope cut his TransAlta Corp. (TA-T) target to $17 from $21 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $18.77.
“In these uncertain markets, we expect investors will find the stability and defensiveness of the Energy infrastructure space attractive,” he said. “Despite tariffs, concerns on global growth, and volatile commodity prices, our earnings outlooks are resilient and largely unchanged. Looking to Q1/25, on balance, our estimates are slightly below consensus. We are generally above consensus for the utility group (and especially so for EMA-T), which should benefit from a cold winter. We are calling for some sizable misses in the power space (NPI-T, TA-T) as offshore generation is expected to be weak and Alberta pricing is soft. We see the most investor interest in the pipeline/midstream and utility companies. We prefer the gas-levered pipeline/midstream names, followed by the utility group then the renewables. Our overall favourite names are EMA-T, BIP-N, KEY-T, PPL-T, and TRP-T.”