Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, “uncertainties” weighed on the guidance from BlackBerry Ltd. (BB-N, BB-T), according to RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber, who emphasized tariff uncertainties may delay new programs at auto OEMs, weighing on the revenue growth from its QNX segment while government elections/changes are a “potential headwind” to gains from its Secure Communications unit.
TSX-listed shares of the Waterloo, Ont.-based company fell 9.2 per cent on Thursday after it announced a 2026 revenue target of US$504-$534-million, down 3 per cent year-over-year at its midpoint and below the Street’s forecast of US$584-million due largely to lower Secure Comms revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was guided to US$69-84-million, also below the consensus at US$89-million.
Tariffs, DOGE cuts weigh on BlackBerry as stock drops on uncertain outlook
“Even though BlackBerry has not seen any meaningful impact from tariffs on QNX or production plans for its auto OEM customers to date, the company lowered its FY26 QNX revenue outlook from $260-270-million provided at its investor day in October to $250-270-milllion (10 per cent year-over-year Y/Y mid-point), with the mid-point slightly above consensus at $257-million,” said Mr. Treiber. “QNX backlog rose only 6 per cent year-over-year (vs. 27 per cent Y/Y FY24), as several large expected program wins have not closed yet. Given uncertainties, new large wins may continue to be delayed through FY26.
“Elections are a potential headwind to Secure Comms. FY26 Secure Comms revenue guidance for $230-240-million (own 14 per cent year-over-year mid-point exCylance) was short of consensus at $274MM. Even though recurring revenue is high ($208-million ARR as of Q4), guidance reflects the lower likelihood of large license deals at government customers, amidst recent elections and changes in administration. BlackBerry has not seen churn at the U.S. Federal government and believes its U.S. business would be resilient, given long contracts and mission critical software.”
While its guidance fell below consensus estimates, the analyst note BlackBerry’s profitability and positive cashflow “should provide an eventual floor for valuation.”
“BlackBerry is trading at 3.6 times NTM EV/S [next 12-month enterprise value to sales], which is slightly below its historical average (3.8 times); on NTM EV/EBITDA, the stock is trading at 25 times, below the peer group average of 31 times.” he said.
After reducing his forecast through fiscal 2027, Mr. Treiber trimmed his target for BlackBerry shares to US$3.75 from US$4, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average target on the Street is US$4.24, according to LSEG data.
“Our Sector Perform thesis reflects our view that a material upwards re-rating in the shares requires improved growth, which seems less likely at the moment,” he said.
Elsewhere, CIBC’s Todd Coupland cut his target to US$6 from US$7 with an “outperformer” rating.
“While Blackberry’s Q4/F25 results were better than expected, its FQ1 and F2026 guide was mixed,” said Mr. Coupland. “It now assumes the possible but yet-to-be-realized impact of tariffs on global vehicle production, which widened QNX’s revenue guide range. It also contemplates the impact of “sluggish contracting” and DOGE cuts that would result in lower Secure Communications (SC) revenue.
“Despite this, our view that F2026 will inflect to double-digit QNX revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA (EBITDA) remains intact. Blackberry’s FQ4 results demonstrated the material benefits from restructuring and splitting into two units. This is a trend we expect to be more fully realized as F2026 unfolds against updated and conservative guidance.”
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ATB Capital Markets analyst Nate Heywood thought Superior Plus Corp.’s (SPB-T) Investor Event on Wednesday “highlighted significant near-term financial growth through a revamped focus on overall business optimization strategies.”
“The previously highlighted Superior Delivers initiative received particular attention during the presentation as management pointed to the improved data analytics and new tools it plans to utilize for improving its cost-to-serve, customer growth and wholesale advantage,” he added in a note title Superior Looking to Moneyball Cash Flow Growth.
Shares of the Toronto-based distributor of propane, compressed natural gas (CNG), renewable energy and related products soared 8.1 per cent after it announced its Superior Delivers propane transformation is now expected to generate more than $70-million in incremental annual adjusted EBITDA by 2027, up from the previous $50-million-plus target.
“SPB is taking a new approach to its legacy propane business through the Superior Delivers initiative,” said Mr. Heywood. “The focus, historically on growth through M&A, will take a more organic approach to acquiring customers and utilize new technology for data analytics. Largely, the focus is on enhancing customer lifetime value with its cost-to-serve, customer growth and retention, and its wholesale advantage.”
“SPB also expects $25-million of organic growth in its CNG business (Certarus) and $20-million of growth from its base propane business (including $10-million from normalized weather). In aggregate, these step changes from 2024 through 2027 are expected to drive EBITDA to $570-million (+/-5 per cent) in 2027. EBITDA beyond 2027 through 2030 is expected to grow at an 3-5-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate]. FCF is also expected to see a meaningful step up over the period (40-per-cent CAGR) as management reduces debt and prioritizes organic growth over M&A. Leverage is expected to fall to less than 3.0 times in 2027 from 4.1 times at year-end 2024. Share repurchases are expected to remain consistent over the period with management pointing to $400-million in aggregate share repurchases over 2025-2027.”
Reiterating his “outperform” rating for Superior Plus shares, Mr. Heywood increased his target by $1 to $11 after upward revisions to his estimates through 2027. The average target is $9.61.
“SPB has meaningfully expanded both its U.S. and low carbon fuel exposure with the acquisition of Certarus, a business that should continue to add diversified growth through compressed natural gas demand,” he concluded. “SPB is also progressing with its Superior Delivers program focused on better serving customers through price optimizations and data analytics through three pillars: 1) growing/retaining customer base, 2) becoming lowest cost operator, and 3) deploying capital efficiently. The initiative is expected to add $70-million (prev: $50-million) in annual EBITDA by YE2027. The capital allocation framework and messaging has also changed for SPB in recent updates following a 75-per-cent reduction to its dividend to an annualized $0.18 per share (yield: 2.7 per cent) as management now plans to prioritize shareholder returns through buybacks under the NCIB. Annual dividend savings of $135-million is expected to be used for the repurchase of shares through 2025, accompanied with management’s continued intent to reduce leverage towards a target of less than 3.0 times in 2027 (Q4/24: 4.1 times).”
Other analysts making target adjustments include:
* National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $7.50 from $6.50 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Cognizant that we are very much in the early innings of executing the plan, we expect the stock to trade at a healthy discount to its historical average of 8.0 times EV/EBITDA pending results tracking guidance over the coming quarters, and hence continue to recommend a conservative entry point of less than 6 times 2025 estimate EV/EBITDA (less than $6/sh),” he said.
* TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil to $9.50 from $9 with a “buy” rating.
“Superior’s investor day confirmed our thesis and was punctuated by an increase to its Superior Delivers target of $70 million (from $50 million) and a commitment to direct $400-million to the NCIB,” he said. “We are introducing 2027 est. at the low end of Superior’s target, noting that it is subject to climate patterns and other industry fundamentals that are challenging to predict.”
* BMO’s John Gibson to $9 from $8 with an “outperform” rating.
“We expect meaningful torque to per-share metrics, especially as SPB continues its aggressive buyback strategy, supported by ongoing deleveraging,” said Mr. Gibson.
* CIBC’s Robert Catellier to $9.50 from $9 with an “outperformer” rating.
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Seeing it “positioned to capitalize on strong fundamentals for seniors housing,” Canaccord Genuity analyst Mark Rothschild initiated coverage of Chartwell Retirement Residences (CSH.UN-T) with a “buy” recommendation on Thursday.
“We believe that Chartwell presents an opportunity to invest in a high-quality portfolio of seniors housing properties diversified across Canada’s largest markets, at a time when strong fundamentals and limited new supply combine to lead to strong cash flow growth,” he said.
Mr. Rothschild thinks the Mississauga-based REIT, which currently owns and manages a portfolio of 178 seniors housing properties of 29,747 suites in Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta, poised to benefit from favourable demographics, calling it “a key driver of strong fundamentals,” and noted improving occupancy is a key driver of net operating income growth.
“As Canada’s population ages, we believe Chartwell is well-positioned to grow rental rates and improve occupancy,” he said. “Canada’s population over the age of 75 is expected to increase 57 per cent cumulatively (3.8-per-cent CAGR) from 3.4 million in 2024 to 5.4 million in 2035. This is an acceleration from a 2.8-per-cent CAGR, from 2.3 million in 2011 to 3.3 million in 2023. With shrinking project pipelines and limited construction starts, we expect supply will likely remain constrained in the near term, leading to further upward pressure on both occupancy and rental rates.
“Reflecting both strong demand and limited new supply, we think NOI is positioned to rise materially over the next few years. Chartwell generated internal growth of 18.9 per cent in 2024, up from growth of 14.3 per cent in 2023 and down 7.4 per cent in 2022. Chartwell’s same-property occupancy rate improved from 81.1 per cent in 2023 to 90.9 per cent at the end of 2024, and management believes it can reach 95 per cent in 2025. We forecast AFFO per diluted unit of $0.83 for 2025 and $0.95 for 2026, representing growth of 17.6 per cent and 14.1 per cent, respectively. This growth is well above what is expected from Canadian REITs and underpins our bullish view on Chartwell.”
Seeing it trading at an attractive valuation relative to its peers, the analyst set a target of $20.50 per unit, exceeding the $19.31 average.
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National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen warns “uncertainty around trade stemming from tariffs as well as the growing risk of a broader economic slowdown” will likely continue to weigh on the shares of both Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T) with near-term upside for both likely to be limited.
While both companies saw year-over-year volume gains in the first quarter of 2025, Mr. Doerksen sees the imposition of tariffs and fallout on trade flows remaining the biggest overhang from an investing perspective. He thinks both will be impacted if tariffs are in place long-term, but he predicts CPKC “may see more of a headwind as a large component of its multi-year growth story stems from cross-border Mexico volume growth.”
“For CPKC, 41 per cent of its revenue is generated from cross-border flows including 18 per cent of revenue from cross-border U.S.-Mexico, although only 5 per cent from Mexico to U.S. based on 2024 revenue (major flows from U.S. to Mexico include grain and petroleum & chemicals with autos and intermodal moving the other direction),” he said. “However, CPKC has been bullish on cross-border growth, especially automotive (32 per cent of CPKC’s automotive revenues are currently tied to Mexico origin vehicles) and the Trump Administration appears determined to bring more auto manufacturing back to the U.S. so tariffs to some degree may have some permanence. However, tariffs may bring other opportunities for CPKC, including more trade between Canada and Mexico which CPKC can uniquely support with single line service on its network.
“For CN, 32 per cent of its revenue is tied to transborder Canada-U.S. flows and while its direct exposure to Mexico is minimal, some commodities could be at risk of tariffs including lumber and metals & minerals (steel, etc.), which seem destined to face more permanent tariffs. We also note that 22 per cent of CN’s total revenue is from intermodal which skews to international intermodal (58 per cent), a portion of which (35 per cent of Canadian West Coast port container volumes) is volumes offloading in a Canadian port with the end destination in the U.S. It is this portion of CN’s revenue that could be at risk from large-scale tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S. Looking more specifically at China, about 10 per cent of CN’s total revenue is related to trade with China, about 60 per cent of which is international intermodal with about 35 per cent of that being U.S. destined (2 per cent of total CN revenue potentially impacted by China tariffs).”
While emphasizing rail stock valuations have “contracted meaningfully” in recent months, Mr. Doerksen cut his target for CN shares to $170 from $176 with an “outperform” rating and CPKC shares to $118 from $123 with a “sector perform” recommendation. The averages on the Street are $170.93 and $126.44, respectively.
“We nevertheless keep our Outperform rating on CN Rail as its relative valuation remains attractive, in our view,” he explained. “We remain positive on CPKC’s long-term volume growth outlook, but we see the uncertainty around tariffs and trade having more of an impact on investor sentiment for CPKC shares than CN. We therefore keep our Sector Perform rating on CPKC shares.”
“Based on our updated 2025 forecast, CN shares are trading at 18.4 times P/E, which is well-below the five-year forward average of 22.2 times for the stock. In addition, whereas CN has historically traded at a 2.2 turn premium to the U.S. rail peer group average, the stock is currently trading in line with the U.S. peer average of 18.3 times 2025 P/E. CPKC shares are currently trading at 21.7 times our updated 2025 EPS forecast, which is ahead of the U.S. peers but below its five-year average of 24.4 times. Given that CPKC has arguably the most compelling organic growth prospects in the industry, it is reasonable to see the stock at a premium valuation to the peers, although the uncertainty over tariffs and the potential impact they may have on economic growth may limit the premium in the near-term.”
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Touting an “accelerated path to development,” National Bank Financial analyst Rabi Nizami sees Osisko Metals Inc. (OM-X) “bringing fresh attention to Gaspé Copper, a re-emerging Canadian copper asset with scale, infrastructure, and a clear path to redevelopment, located at home in mining-friendly Québec.”
Calling the project “the largest undeveloped copper resource in eastern North America,” he initiated coverage with an “outperform” recommendation on Thursday, emphasizing the company is led by “principals of the Osisko Group - responsible for advancing Canadian Malartic, Windfall, and Osisko Gold Royalties - who bring a proven track record in developing large-scale mining projects in Québec and globally.”
“Gaspé Copper was once Noranda’s flagship operation and Canada’s largest base metal mine, having produced more than 141 million tonnes at 0.87-per-cent copper (2.7 billion lbs contained) over a 50-year mine life prior to its closure in 1999,” he said. “Since acquiring the project from Glencore in 2023, Osisko Metals has delineated a substantial mineral resource of 1.5 billion tonnes at 0.36-per-cent CuEq (12 billion lbs contained), underpinned by an improved understanding of geology which supports confidence in further growth and redevelopment of the project.
“Osisko Metals aims to redevelop Gaspé Copper as a bulk-tonnage, open pit mine with large-scale copper production rivaling globally significant copper projects over a multi-decade mine life. Our preliminary model considers an open pit copper mining and milling operation capable of more than 150kt CuEq annual production over a 27-year mine life at C1 cash costs of approximately US$1.50/lb Cu (net of by-products), based only on the currently defined mineral resource.”
Mr. Nizami expects Osisko Metals will gain visibility as results from its drill program are released through 2025, and he thinks an updated resource in 2026 will support advanced technical and economic studies.
“Our Outperform rating considers the 110,000 metre exploration program at Gaspé, Osisko Group-led, well-funded path to de-risk and fast-track toward development, a mining friendly address on infrastructure in Québec, and management’s impressive track record for developing deposits in the region,” he said. “We ascribe a Speculative risk rating as our thesis is contingent on continued exploration success and continued de-risking through engineering, permitting, and financing milestones.”
He set a target of $1.25 per share. The current average on the Street is $1.10.
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After the late Wednesday release of its capital guidance and a 75-per-cent cut to its monthly dividend, Canaccord Genuity analyst Mike Mueller upgraded Pine Cliff Energy Ltd. (PNE-T) to a “buy” from “hold” previously, seeing them “facilitate [a] shift back to drilling into stronger natural gas prices.”
“With its 2024 capital program being at minimal levels of approximately $2.5-milion in light of weak natural gas prices, PNE expects to spend $23.5-million this year including AROs [asset retirement obligations] (or $16.0-million excluding AROs),” he said. While production guidance was not provided with the release, we note that the increased capital spend will be weighted to H2/25 with production guidance expected later this year as timing of its drill program is firmed up.
“Given the increased capital this year, PNE has elected to reduce its dividend to $0.015/ share (annualized), or $0.00125/share monthly, which reflects a yield of 2.1-per-cent on [Wednesday’s] close. On an annual basis, the new dividend implies a commitment of $5.4-million. This is a marked shift from prior levels of $21.5-million.”
Mr. Mueller called the dividend cut “prudent and particularly rational looking at forward AECO pricing into next year.”
“Prioritizing drilling later this year better positions the company into a stronger tape with the majority of production adds to be realized in 2026,” he explained. “For context, 2026 AECO prices currently average $3.40/mcf, 30 per cent above 2025 levels ($2.62/mcf). Considering this, we are upgrading our recommendation on PNE to BUY (from HOLD).”
He maintained a target of 90 cents per share, which falls below the $1.04 average.
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In other analyst actions:
* BMO’s Fadi Chamoun lowered his Air Canada (AC-T) target to $29 from $31 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $24.67.
“Macro risk has increased significantly in recent months amid trade policy uncertainty, but in our view, the sentiment has become far too bearish on Air Canada relative to both near-term and long-term fundamentals,” he said.
“We are tweaking our forecasts lower and reiterating our Outperform rating.”
* CIBC’s Anita Soni increased her target for Allied Gold Corp. (AAUC-T) to $5.60 from $5.30, below the $7.46 average, with a “neutral” rating.
“We have updated our model for Allied’s Q4/24 financial and operating results released after market on March 26, and audited financials released on the evening of March 31. Our annualized CFPS estimate using a 2025 basis increases from $0.76 to $1.07 after modelling the positive impact of the sale of the 48.9koz of Korali-Sud inventory produced in 2024 but sold subsequent to year-end due to in-country administrative delays,” said Ms. Soni.
* JP Morgan’s Sebastiano Petti cut his targets for BCE Inc. (BCE-T) to $28 from $29 with an “underweight” rating and Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) to $53 from $57 with an “overweight” recommendation. The averages on the Street are $35.27 and $53.50, respectively.
* In response to an amended acquisition offer from H.I.G. Capital, Canaccord Genuity’s Robert Young raised his Converge Technology Solutions Corp. (CTS-T) target to $6 from $5.50 to reflect the offer with a “hold” rating. Other changes include: TD Cowen’s David Kwan to $6 from $5.50 with a “buy” rating, Scotia’s Divya Goyal to $6 from $5.50 with a “sector perform” rating, CIBC’s Stephanie Price to $6 from $5.50 with a “neutral” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil to $6 from $5.50 with a “tender” recommendation. The average is $5.77.
“Despite the higher bid, the Converge board advised to proceed with H.I.G’s amended offer at $6.00 for the following reasons: 1) certainty of close, 2) shorter timeline to close, and 3) stakeholder stability and reduced disruption risk if CTS decided to accept a competing bid. We note that H.I.G. has a five-business day match period for any offers. Given April 8 is the proxy deadline for the upcoming April 10 shareholder meeting, we see low probability of any new bids and expect the H.I.G. amended agreement to close. Given the higher bid, we are raising our target to $6.00 (from $5.50). We remain HOLD rated,” said Mr. Young.
* CIBC’s Cosmos Chiu cut his target for Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR-T) to $7.25 from $8 with a “neutral” rating. The average is $8.23.
* Jefferies’ John Aiken increased his Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO-T) target to $58, exceeding the $56.22 average, from $51 with a “hold” rating. Other changes include: TD Cowen’s Mario Mendonca to $62 from $53 with a “buy” rating and BMO’s Tom MacKinnon to $59 from $54 with a “market perform” rating.
“At the investor day GWO raised its ROE target to 19 per cent plus, reflecting strong growth at Empower (particularly Wealth), shift to higher ROE businesses and efficiency gains. Unlike its peers, the ROE gains are not leveraged to buybacks. We have greater confidence in GWO achieving its ROE target than peers. The US rollover opportunity and lower risk profile support a higher target price and BUY rating,” said Mr. Mendonca.
* Desjardins Securities’ Alexander Leon, currently the lone analyst covering Inovalis Real Estate Investment Trust (INO.UN-T), raised his target to $1 from 85 cents with a “hold” rating.
“INO reported slightly better-than-expected 4Q24 operating results with total portfolio occupancy increasing for the second consecutive quarter and NOI coming in ahead of our forecast,” he said. “Post-quarter, a binding agreement for the sale of Sablière was signed and management remains focused on advancing Arcueil redevelopment plans to satisfy conditions from the exchange contract signed in January. Our target goes to $1.00 on an improved outlook, but the pending departure of Lorenz Bahlsen in 4Q25 remains a key headwind.”
* CIBC’s Hamir Patel cut his Methanex Corp. (MEOH-Q, MX-T) target to US$55 from US$63 with an “outperformer” rating. The average is US$58.40.
“We believe the market will need to see demonstrated consistent operating performance over the coming year from the company’s G3 plant (currently idled) before affording the company a higher multiple,” said Mr. Patel.