Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
After a noteworthy second-quarter earnings season for Canadian telecommunications giants, National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine thinks investor focus now centres on whether “wireless discipline will persist through back-to-school.”
“It was a busy period with 1) changing narratives for BCE and Rogers or at least some improvements in relative investor perceptions of each and recoveries from their multi-year lows set early in April, 2) muted necessitated adjustments to 2Q estimates for the Big 3 in contrast to more material revisions required in previews over the prior several quarters, 3) deal news covered Sovereign AI initiatives, new partnerships, and closings of key transactions initiated in 2024, 4) wireless saw more discipline exhibited at the end of June and so far in 3Q, and 5) Ottawa passed on overturning CRTC decisions on TPIA (Third-Party Internet Access) to the disappointment of all in the sector ex-Telus,” he said.
In a research report released Tuesday, Mr. Shine made a pair of rating revisions, upgrading Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” and downgraded Cogeco Communications Inc. (CCA-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
“Why the rating changes? Since our downgrade of Quebecor, we raised our target from a prior $38 which got breached in early April and prompted the rating change then,” said Mr. Shine. “The stock pulled back as expected heading into and after 2Q reporting. With more industry discipline now in wireless and a recent renewal of its NCIB which should remain active, we think momentum can return to the stock as it continues to make progress with its strategy outside of Quebec.
“As for Cogeco, growth is proving a struggle. U.S. cable peers saw multiples compress post-2Q and this warranted a contraction in our Breezeline multiple. Ottawa’s decision not to change the CRTC’s mutated TPIA regime allows Telus to push a bundle in Central Canada which may not only undermine Cogeco’s return on network expansion investments already made in Quebec and ongoing in Ontario, but also creates implications for its MVNO launch in its cable footprint which will face added competition from Telus that wasn’t previously contemplated. To reflect this, we opted to trim the Canadian multiple in Cogeco’s NAV. In our DCF, we also reduced the terminal growth rate.”
The analyst dropped his target for Cogeco Communications shares to $69 from $80. The average target on the Street is $75.10, according to LSEG data.
His Quebecor target remains $42. The average is $42.33.
His ratings and targets for other stocks in the sector are:
- BCE Inc. (BCE-T) with an “outperform” rating and $35 target. Average: $34.47.
- Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) with an “outperform” rating and $59 target. Average: $54.50.
- Telus Corp. (T-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $23 target. Average: $22.89.
Elsewhere, Barclays’ Lauren Bonham raised her Rogers target to $45 from $42 with an “equalweight” rating in a report wrapping up earnings season in the sector.
“Despite some stabilization, competitive healing is not uniform across segments and valuation differentials could persist driven by balance sheets,” she said.
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Following Monday’s release of better-than-expected second-quarter production and sales volumes alongside lower-than-expected cash costs driven by optimization initiatives, National Bank Financial analyst Mohamed Sidibé raised his recommendation for Lithium Argentina AG (LAR-N, LAR-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously, seeing continuing to “deliver strong operational performance” during the ramp-up phase at its Caucharí-Olaroz project.
TSX-listed shares of the company, which moved its corporate headquarters to Switzerland from Vancouver in January, soared 30.9 per cent after it earnings per share loss of 3 US cents, a penny better than the Street’s expectation, alongside stronger-than-anticipated production results, higher-than-expected realized pricing and an operating cost reduction of 8 per cent from the first quarter and 14 per cent year-over-year.
Lithium Argentinas also benefited come a sector-wide surge on Monday after Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) halted output at a major mine, raising hopes it would erode the oversupply in a market grappling with soft demand.
“These improvements suggest that the asset is tracking ahead of expectations on cost control, thus moving forward the expectation of profitability vs. prior estimates,” said Mr. Sidibé. “In this tightening market, LAR offers the highest leverage to lithium prices within our coverage universe (excluding American Lithium), with an asset that is delivering production at costs of $6,700 per ton LCE, well below spot prices currently at $10,500/t - a key catalyst we were looking for prior to revisiting our thesis.
“Despite the realized pricing still impacted by taxes and additional processing costs of $2,000/t, LAR is now well positioned to deliver positive FCF in H2/25 and 2026 at Caucharí-Olaroz at these current spot prices which have rallied on the back of supply curtailments in China.”
With updates to his financial projections, including lower cash costs, Mr. Sidibé hiked his target for the company’s U.S.-listed shares to US$4.50 from US$2.90. The average target on the Street is US$4.14.
“Given the recent rally in lithium equities prices, we are also updating our equity financing pricing assumption for LAR to $3.50 per share from $1.95 per share to reflect current levels,” he added. “This drives the bulk of our NAV increase of 26 per cent to $5.00 per share with the remainder driven by better costs modelled at Caucharí-Olaroz over the medium and long term. We increase our NAV target multiple on the company to 1.00 times NAV from 0.80 times NAV as the company continues to derisk its ramp-up with solid operating results. Additional upside is expected to be delineated via the regional development plan with its partner Ganfeng Lithium.”
Elsewhere, BMO’s Joel Jackson raised his target to US$4 from US$2.50 with a “market perform” rating.
“Cauchari-Olaroz processes and carbonate quality and consistency have improved, so quality penalties have lowered, and cash costs have also decreased. We may see some value enhancing partnerships with Ganfeng on the early-stage Salta assets as well. This amid a lithium dynamic off the bottoms,” said Mr. Jackson.
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Seeing “slowing growth prospects” with “credit resiliency also a question mark,” BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Étienne Ricard downgraded EQB Inc. (EQB-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” previously.
“We are increasingly worried about EQB’s ability to sustain its historical loan growth track record (14 per cent) and outperformance relative to the Big 6,” he said. “We see downside risk from: i) lower immigration; ii) a challenging self-employment market; iii) low real estate transactional activity, and; iv) risks of increased mortgage broker channel competition. We wonder if this is reflected in EQB’s changing capital allocation policy, placing greater emphasis on dividend payout (2025 estimate: 20 per cent; 2020: 11 per cent) and most recently share repurchases.”
“Over the past couple of years, EQB’s credit metrics have underperformed banking peers, which is a notable deviation from historical patterns. For example, impaired retail loans now represent 95 basis points of the portfolio (2022: 20bps; pre-pandemic cyclical average: 30bps) vs. 22bps for banking peers (2022: 15bps; pre-pandemic cyclical average: 30bps). Going forward, we are mindful of: i) an overexposure to Ontario (70 per cent of uninsured mortgages vs. 50-per-cent average for the Big 6) where property values have been weaker; ii) equipment leasing exposure, where allowance rates remain 2 times higher than prior expectations.”
Also projected slower deposit growth, Mr. Ricard cut his target to $111 from $115. The average on the Street is $112.20.
“Considering downside risk to earnings growth forecasts, the stock’s 1.3-times book valuation reflects a balanced risk-reward, in our view,” he added.
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With a “more constructive view” on its wealth management assets and seeing the “potential for capital markets activity to pick up in the near term,” TD Cowen analyst Graham Ryding upgraded Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF-T) to “buy” from “hold” despite “soft” quarterly results.
“We apply a more constructive view on the wealth management assets,” he explained. “We note that the recently announced acquisition of a Canadian wealth competitor implies a multiple of 1.5 per cent of AUA and 11.2 times EV/EBITDA (pre-synergies). Although organic growth within the U.K. platform is somewhat muted (0.9-per-cent flows rate in F2025), we note that Q1/F26 pre-tax earnings ($30-million) and EBITDA (£21.1-million) were a record. Our $12.00 target price implies what we view as a conservative 9.2 times on run-rate wealth EBITDA from both platforms.
“We continue to forecast an improvement in capital markets activity. Our outlook implies pre-tax earnings of $47-million in F2026 and $56-million in F2027 (vs. $44-million in F2025). Despite the soft Q1/F26 capital markets results, management noted a solid M&A advisory pipeline and potential for corporate finance activity to pick up (subject to market volatility). We note that our colleague Bill Katz highlighted activity picking up and constructive commentary from Stifel and Raymond James with Q2/25 results.”
With “modest” adjustments to his forecast, including a narrow decline for his 2026 earnings per share projection following by an increase to his 2027 expectation, Mr. Ryding moved his target to $12 from $10, citing “a higher multiple on Canaccord’s wealth earnings to reflect the value we see in its Canadian and U.K. wealth platforms.” The average is $12.13.
“Wealth platforms to continue to deliver stable and growing earnings, albeit we are looking for U.K. margins to improve. Capital markets could remain muted in the near term,” he said. “Debt continues to increase, suggesting the pending HPS liability due likely requires a full or partial sale of the U.K. Wealth business. In our view, valuation appears fair, given elevated leverage, a muted outlook for near-term capital markets activity, and a somewhat fluid situation towards the HPS liability.”
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TD Cowen analyst Derick Ma thinks the M&A pipeline for Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV-N, FNV-T) “remains strong” with the miner “well-positioned from a liquidity and cash-flow standpoint to continue to be acquisitive and add GEOs growth in the current deal environment.”
He also sees the Toronto-based company trending toward the higher end of its guidance following stronger-than-anticipated second-quarter results. Its TSX-listed shares rose 2.6 per cent on Monday after it reported quarterly adjusted earnings per share of $1.24, exceeding Mr. Ma’s estimate by 7 cents and the consensus projection on the Street by 13 cents.
“Management stated on its conference call that there are no capital constraints on the organization when assessing new deals,” he said. “For new opportunities, FNV is focused on long life, precious metal assets in the current commodity price environment and stated there is a ‘very healthy pipeline’ of producing and development opportunities. In spite of recent deal execution success, we believe that FNV is well-positioned in terms of liquidity and cash flow generation to support further growth.
“$1.1-billion of available liquidity at quarter end. As at June 30, FNV had $160-million in cash and its $1-billion revolving credit facility (RCF) was completely undrawn (less $48-million of standby letter of credits to the CRA). After the quarter, FNV withdrew $175-million from the RCF to fund the acquisition of the 1.0-per-cent NSR royalty on Arthur. As at August 11, the available balance on the RCF was $776.6-milllion. We estimate FNV could generate operating cash flows in the range of $300-$350-million per quarter at current commodity prices.”
After “modest” adjustments to his forecast, Mr. Ma raised his target for Franco-Nevada shares to US$184 from US$182 with a “hold” rating.
“Franco-Nevada’s management team has a proven track record of success and its asset portfolio offers moderate GEOs organic growth over the medium term; however, the long-term growth outlook remains modest. Uncertainties over the potential restart and timing of Cobre Panama continue to overhang FNV’s cornerstone asset,” he concluded.
Elsewhere, others making adjustments include:
* Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur to US$188 from US$186 with an “outperform” rating.
“FNV is a diversified royalty/streaming company with quality assets, strong free cash flows, and longer-term growth. It also has a strong balance sheet to finance potential future deals and support its dividend, which has increased every year,” he said.
* Scotia’s Tanya Jakusconek to US$184 from US$182 with a “sector perform” rating.
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In a client report titled Fighting the good fight, Desjardins Securities’ Alexander Leon thinks the nearly 32-per-cent drop in the price of Dream Impact Trust (MPCT.UN-T) units since it reported largely in-line second-quarter results on Aug. 5 is “unwarranted.”
However, while noting the 88-per-cent discount to its net asset value appears “attractive,” the equity warned: “(1) the multifamily portfolio has yet to reach a stabilized level that is sufficient to support headwinds from the commercial segment and its elevated leverage profile; and (2) we fail to see any material near-term catalysts that would move the stock higher.”
After reducing his earnings expectations through 2026, Mr. Leon cut his target for units of the Toronto-based REIT, which focuses on multi-family rental housing, to $3.75 from $5.25 with a “hold” rating to reflect a lower valuation multiple.
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Desjardins Securities analyst Brent Stadler sees Hydro One Ltd. (H-T) as a “set and forget” investment option, calling it a “top defensive pick with strong growth outlook” ahead of Wednesday’s release of its second-quarter financial results.
“Along with 2Q results, we will look for an update on the nine transmission projects, additional growth opportunities from Ontario’s recent IEP and potential benefits from the federal government’s goal of turning Canada into an energy superpower,” he said. “We continue to believe H is a high-quality defensive play, with best-in-class growth and strong visibility to longer-term opportunities that investors should be willing to pay a premium for.”
In a note released before the bell, Mr. Stadler raised his quarterly earnings per share forecast by 4 cents to 53 cents, exceeding the consensus projection of 51 cents, to “better reflect organic rate base growth and strong peak power demand.”
“We have also recalibrated our 2H25 estimates for seasonality, including sharing of over-earnings with rate payers in 4Q25,” he said.
“What to watch for in 2Q25. (1) An update on the nine transmission lines that H plans to bring online through 2032, including updates on nearer-term projects such as the $472-million St. Clair and $1.2-billion Waasigan transmission lines. (2) Incremental transmission projects that H could be awarded from the Ministry of Energy’s integrated energy plan (IEP), providing an outlook to 2050; this includes the Greenstone and Bowmanville-toGTA transmission line projects, both of which could be in service in the early 2030s and could be additive to JRAP 2028. (3) Potential transmission opportunities based on the federal government’s desire to turn Canada into an energy superpower. (4) Updates or commentary on progress related to the OEB’s generic rate filing process and the possible effect on H’s equity thickness and ROE (the OEB’s decision to increase OPG’s equity thickness to 45 per cent has a positive readthrough, in our view). Recall we expect H to file JRAP 2028 in fall 2026, with resolution in 1H27.”
While he also raised his full-year earnings expectation, Mr. Stadler maintained a $58 target and “buy” rating for Hydro One shares. The average is $49.82.
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In other analyst actions:
* Believing “operational consistency underlines [its] value proposition,” CIBC’s Anita Soni upgraded Barrick Gold Corp. (B-N, ABX-T) to “outperformer” from “neutral” with a US$30 target, up from US$28. The average on the Street is US$26.28.
“Late November 2024, we downgraded our rating to Neutral on the back of operational challenges at Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo and geopolitical headwinds related to Loulo-Guonkoto,” she said. “We believed then that operational delivery was the key to a re-rating for the stock. The stock has underperformed the peer group since that time, delivering 29-per-cent share price appreciation, in line with the gold price which is up 31 per cent, while peers are up 42-95 per cent.
"Turning the page on the challenging 2022-2024 period, with Q1/25 and Q2/25 results, Barrick has delivered against expectations and is on track to achieve production guidance. With this recent operational consistency, we are more comfortable that go-forward estimates can be relied upon, and the stock is indeed undervalued relative to peers. We have taken a conservative approach with our estimates, forecasting only modest Q/Q growth, at similar rates to Q2/Q1. And yet, we still see significant FCF. At spot gold prices, B currently trades at 0.7 times P/NAV and 4.8 times 2025E P/CF, below its senior peers at 1.0 times and 8.9 times, respectively, and we believe Barrick could begin to outperform the commodity and close the gap on senior peers in the coming months."
* In a report released Tuesday titled Strategic positioning in the uranium renaissance, Stifel’s Madison Tapscott initiated coverage of IsoEnergy Ltd. (ISO-T) with a “buy” rating and $22 target, exceeding the $21.31 average on the Street.
“We view IsoEnergy as a differentiated uranium company that offers investors a rare combination of near-term U.S. production and high-grade Canadian exploration upside. With strategic infrastructure in place and fully permitted, the Tony M mine in Utah represents, in our view, a low capex, near-term production opportunity well positioned to capitalize on favourable U.S. policy tailwinds. Additionally, IsoEnergy’s Hurricane deposit, which is one of the highest-grade published indicated undeveloped uranium deposits in the Athabasca Basin, has strategic proximity to existing mills and infrastructure and is increasingly important amid regional consolidation pressure. We believe de-risking of near-term production potential in the U.S., U.S. policy tailwinds related to uranium, regional consolidation pressure in the Athabasca and exploration opportunities are key elements that make IsoEnergy poised for a valuation re-rate.”
* Jefferies’ Samad Samana downgraded Open Text Corp. (OTEX-Q, OTEX-T) to “hold” from “buy” and reduced his target to US$33 from US$35. Elsewhere, Scotia’s Kevin Krishnaratne raised his target to US$35 from US$30 with a “sector perform” rating. The average target on the Street is US$34.37.
* JP Morgan’s Michael Cyprys raised his Brookfield Corp. (BN-N, BN-T) target to US$73 from US$70 with an “overweight” rating. The average is US$71.86.
* National Bank’s Matt Kornack raised his target for Dream Office REIT (D.UN-T) to $17 from $16.50 with a “sector perform” rating, while Scotia’s Mario Saric increased his target to $18 from $17.50 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $17.17. The average is $17.17.
“There were some puts and takes in Q2 for Dream Office as the REIT saw committed occupancy increase as it aggressively targets new and renewal leasing in a competitive office environment with long leasing lead times,” said Mr. Kornack. “In-place figures, however, declined, so the benefit of recent success won’t be felt for a few quarters. Rent spreads were also muted across the portfolio with elevated leasing costs, which will impact the potential for growth. For the remainder of the year, the REIT’s sole U.S. property could have an impact on leasing and earnings but is subject to a dual process of leasing / sale. While office fundamentals are stabilizing, the current situation remains challenging, which is pressuring valuations with D’s leverage remaining on the high side.”
* Mr. Kornack trimmed his SmartStop Self Storage REIT (SMA-N) target to US$40 from US$40.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is US$40.30.
“Aside from some IPO related noise, Q2 results were a bit light on NOI (ops were finicky in the quarter with some months tracking well and others underperforming expectations). Nonetheless, this was neutralized by better than forecast contributions from the managed REIT platform and lower G&A (after adjusting for one-time costs) with in-line net interest expense. Guidance on revenues and NOI was tightened but on average maintained with a slight improvement on the mid-point for FFO/unit. Performance so far in Q3 has been encouraging, with easier prior year comps from an SP standpoint for H2/25,” said Mr. Kornack.
* BMO’s Stephen MacLeod cut his Dorel Industries Inc. (DII.B-T) target to $1.50 from $2.25 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $1.25.
“Dorel reported a Q2/25 miss,” said Mr. MacLeod. “Juvenile sales were steady (organic flat year-over-year), while Home segment sales declined significantly as tariff-related pressures and restructuring initiatives weighed (organic down 43.8 per cent year-over-year). Dorel’s Home restructuring activities being implemented H2/25E are expected to return the segment to profitability 2026E, though off a significantly smaller base ($250-300-million annual revenue run-rate vs. $516-million 2024A, single-digit operating margins). Notably, a return to Home profitability does not require revenue growth. Absent sale clarity and reflecting Home challenges, we believe low earnings visibility will limit upside for the stock.”
* Scotia’s Mario Saric trimmed his Killam Apartment REIT (KMP.UN-T) target to $20.50 from $20.75 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $21.73.
“Our SO rating is intact as recent unit price pressure = our modest estimate revisions , maintaining our NTM [next 12-month] total return at 19 per cent (from 19 per cent at our May 27th upgrade),” said Mr. Saric. “KMP initially responded absolutely and relatively quite well to the IIP privatization news but has since given back both absolute and relative gains, mostly on broader weakening apartment sentiment, in our view. While there were some positives (beat, solid revenue growth KPIs) and negatives during Q2 (ironically, the biggest -ve surprise likely had to do with Office WFH) and CAD Apartment sentiment seems to have stalled, our intact SO rating is grounded in the following: 1) we think KMP ranks #1 on CAD Apartment blended rent growth and new lease spreads, 2) KMP still offers a good avg. PEG Ratio (2.7 vs. 2.9 for peers and Sector) at a relatively good Apartment balance sheet, 3) KMP still looks discounted vs. pre-COVID valuation despite most other KPIs looking better and 4) to the extent the CAD economy weakens materially, we think KMP offers the best Apartment REIT defence in our universe (i.e., Atlantic Canada posted +ve July job growth last Friday.”
* Mr. Saric raised his SmartCentres REIT (SRU.UN-T) target to $27.50 from $26.75 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $27.28.
“We maintain our SP rating but possess a more constructive outlook on SRU for the following reasons: (1) Our positive 2026 estimated FFOPU/AFFOPU revisions imply back-to-back years of solid AFFOPU growth (expected lack thereof historically has been a concern of ours); resulting in a better PEG ratio of 2.9; (2) Asset dispositions seem more realistic and imminent (i.e., accretive de-levering); (3) SRU should be more immune to any CAD economic underperformance; and (4) #1 above may further shift the narrative away from concerns over distribution sustainability to questions over potential distribution growth, which the current 7.1-per-cent distribution yield (6th-highest in our universe; Nnot on investor radars today (not that we would recommend distribution growth, but that’s besides the point). Lastly, if and when the Toronto land market turns around (granted, not anytime soon), we think SRU is likely one of the biggest beneficiaries in our universe. All-in-all, combined with a solid valuation (12.9 times 2026E AFFO and 6.8-per-cent implied cap), we see more upside in SRU than previously (i.e., no longer just a distribution yield play),” he said.
* Raymond James’ Steve Hansen trimmed his Parkland Corp. (PKI-T) target by $1 to $44 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $43.45.
“We continue to recommend shares of Parkland Corp. based upon the pending Sunoco LP (SUN) acquisition (4Q25 expected close) and commensurate upside to the accepted offer price vs. PKI’s latest share price (Offer: $44.00, up 16 per cent versus Aug-11-25 close,” he said.
* Wells Fargo’s Praneeth Satish raised his South Bow Corp. (SOBO-T) target to $34 from $31 with an “underweight” rating. The average is $35.06.
* Raymond James’ Michael Freeman moved his Vitalhub Corp. (VHI-T) target to $15 from $14.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $15.51.
“VHI had a strong 2Q, with 14-per-cent organic ARR growth and 25-per-cent aEBITDA margins before FX benefit, yielding beats on all domains except net income (acquisition and integration costs),” said Mr. Freeman. “With VHI’s June and July closes of Induction and Novari, respectively — two of its largest acquisitions to date — the company is deep in integration mode, stripping out costs, unifying processes, and supporting sales expansion. Recall, VHI’s core M&A algorithm has it buying break-even and, occasionally, loss-making HC software businesses, then bringing them to 20-per-cent-plus EBITDA margins through integration and leveraging of its offshore R&D hub. So, with big M&A comes periods of notable aEBITDA margin compression, which is what we expect for VHI in the medium term; we model aEBITDA margins (ex-FX) returning to 2Q25 levels (approximately 25 per cent) in 1Q26, and a Rule-of-40 profile returning in 2Q26. We appreciate VHI’s unwavering pursuit of strategic M&A and acknowledge that ephemeral periods of margin compression are part of the process. We think VHI’s expanding footprint and capability set positions it well to further seize on the global healthcare software opportunity, particularly as the UK’s NHS sets out its digitization-heavy 10-year health plan.”
* Scotia’s Tanya Jakusconek raised her Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM-N, WPM-T) target to US$109 from US$108 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is US$108.07.