Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While acknowledging the financial impact of its labour dispute “remains uncertain,” National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen remains “positive” on shares of Air Canada (AC-T) over the longer term, emphasizing “overall demand for air travel remains stable.”
“We also see the company enjoying some near-term year-over-year cost tailwinds based on current jet fuel prices and FX rates, partially offsetting the impact from the strike,” he said. “Additionally, Air Canada shares still trade at a sizable discount to its closest peers, which is the key reason for our Outperform rating.”
In a research note released before Tuesday’s announcement of a tentative agreement between the country’s largest carrier and its flight attendants, Mr. Doerksen estimated it was taking a daily revenue hit of $60-million during the stoppage.
“Air Canada is not incurring costs to operate its schedule while grounded, but there are significant fixed costs that continue,” he explained. “For some historical context, in the first quarter of the COVID shutdown, Air Canada’s EBITDA loss per day was approximately $9-million.
“Given that the company has its operations set for a quick re-start, the EBITDA loss per day in the current shutdown is likely higher, possibly $25 million per day of shutdown (now at three days plus whatever the operational costs of the re-start). For Q3, our current EBITDA forecast is $1.3 billion. As an offset to the labour disruption costs, we note that the current jet fuel price is 0.85/litre versus our Q3 forecast for $0.90/litre going to $0.95/litre in Q4. A lower fuel price alone would be a $185-million boost to our 2025 EBITDA estimate, helping to offset the costs from the labour disruption.”
Mr. Doerksen said it is “hard to imagine” the stoppage continues much longer, pointing to “the massive disruption to the traveling public from the labour disruption and the corresponding impact on the Canadian economy.”
“Considering that the same union represents most flight attendants at other airlines, whatever contract structure Air Canada negotiates will be a template for future contracts at other carriers. As such, we do not see Air Canada being competitively disadvantaged,” he said.
The analyst reaffirmed his “outperform” rating and $26 target for Air Canada shares. The average target on the Street is $25.85, according to LSEG data.
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Seeing an “attractive entry point”, CIBC World Markets analyst Stephanie Price upgraded Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-N, TRI-T) to “outperformer” from “neutral” previously.
“After posting solid Q2 results and a reiterated guidance that left our forward estimates largely unchanged, we are surprised at how much TRI has sold off post quarter,“ she explained. ”We believe the sell-off was driven by expectations of a guidance raise with the quarter and from broader industry-wide AI disruption concerns. In our view, TRI’s 2025/2026 forecast and longer-term growth outlook remains unchanged as it rolls out GenAI tools from a position of competitive strength. With the stock down 13 per cent since earnings, and its year-to-date gains largely erased, we view current levels as a compelling entry point and as of August 18 we are upgrading Thompson Reuters."
Ms. Price kept a US$201 target. The average target on the Street is US$194.64.
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Stifel analyst Martin Landry came away from BRP Inc.’s (DOO-T) annual dealer showcase feeling sentiment toward the recreational vehicle manufacturer has noticeably improved from last year.
"Demand seems to have stabilized while inventory levels have been reduced,“ he said in a client note. ”The main product introduction was a new Defender SSV platform for which BRP redesigned a new chassis and significantly upgraded performance and features of this key product line.
“BRP’s shares have significantly rebounded, up almost 80 per cent from their lows reached in April on hopes that the industry demand stabilizes, tariffs headwinds are manageable and a U.S. recession can be avoided. Despite the strong rebound, we believe BRP’s valuation is not demanding with shares trading at less than 10 times BRP’s normalized EPS of $8-10 upon industry conditions returning to pre-COVID levels.”
Mr. Landry said dealers “appeared in a much better mood than last year,” noting, while “profitability still appears under pressure, sales have stabilized and customers are spending.” He also thought thyey “don’t seem overly concerned about a recession or frugal customers.”
“BRP is reducing pricing on older platforms such as the Maverick SSV, the Commander and the older Defender models with price reductions ranging between US$500-$3,400,” he said. “Management expects that these price reductions will be mostly offset by fewer promotions and rebates to clear unsold inventory and have a limited impact on margins. Price reductions of US$3,000 were also announced across the entire electric motorcycle line-up. We stand in-line with consensus for Q2FY26.
“Our forecasts call for Q2FY26 EPS of $0.45, in-line with consensus estimates of $0.46, and down from $1.02 reported last year. The year-over-year decline comes from gross margin erosion due to a high promotional environment and worse fixed cost absorption. Recall that during the Q1FY26 call, management gave color on expectations for Q2FY26, calling for the financial performance of Q2FY26 to be similar to Q1FY26. This suggests revenues of approximately $1.8-billion, up slightly year-over-year, a turnaround after seven consecutive quarters of declines. This growth in revenues, despite muted demand and a competitive promotional environment, suggests healthier inventory level at dealerships.”
Reiterating his “buy” recommendation for the Valcourt, Que.-based company’s shares, Mr. Landry raised his target by $20 to $88. The average target on the Street is $75.22.
"With the positive feedback received from dealers at the Club BRP, combined with BRP’s new product launches, we have increased confidence in our FY26 estimates and to reflect that we are increasing our valuation multiples on BRP," he said.E
Elsewhere, other analysts making target adjustments include:
* National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen to $83 from $66 with a “sector perform” rating.
"Overall, retail looks to be stabilizing at lower levels, but greater macroeconomic certainty and lower interest rates are likely the key requirements for industry retail to move consistently into positive territory," said Mr. Doerksen.
"We are likely at or near an earnings trough for BRP in the current powersports down-cycle and relative valuation for the stock is attractive. However, there remains significant uncertainty around how consumer demand will ultimately recover with little visibility on a positive inflection point. Furthermore, while the tariff situation is manageable for now for BRP, we are concerned that the U.S. Administration could threaten changes to the USMCA agreement in the future, which would create uncertainty for BRP given its manufacturing exposure in Mexico and Canada. As such, although we see limited downside for the stock from current levels, we remain on the sidelines as we await more tangible signs that retail demand has bottomed and some greater certainty around tariffs."
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $97 from $78 with a “buy” rating.
“We have just returned from Club BRP in Boston. Overall, we came away impressed with several of BRP’s new product introductions and believe the company is well-positioned to gain additional market share. We also note improved dealer sentiment, sunny weather, encouraging 2Q results from Polaris and the increasing probability of rate cuts, with greater confidence that we are approaching the trough. As a result, we are increasing our valuation multiples and derive a new target,” said Mr. Poirier.
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Citing “tepid organic growth with limited visibility on catalysts,” BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Tamy Chen lowered her rating for Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD-T) to “market perform” from an “outperform” recommendation.
“Our previous Outperform reflected our anticipation that ATD’s U.S. merchandise SSS [same-store sales] should at some point lap and rebound back to its historical 2-4-PER-CENT range,” she said in a client note.
“What’s changed? After the overhang related to Seven & I was eliminated, we returned our focus to the company’s organic growth. Our analysis concluded that ATD’s U.S. merchandise SSS may remain tepid for some time. Meanwhile, we expect opex and D&A growth to remain elevated over our forecast period. On SSS, we are unsure if weakness in the low-income consumer is the key driver of ATD’s muted comps given broader economic data shows a resilient U.S. consumer. ATD is contending with a challenging product mix. Cigarettes are its largest category and headwinds have worsened vs. pre-pandemic while the categories that are growing still represent a much smaller mix. In ATD’s past, it was often more so a broader industry tailwind(s) that ultimately reaccelerated comps from a low point. All of these considerations lead us to believe there may not be a ‘quick fix’ to bring ATD’s U.S. merchandise SSS back to its historical 2-4-per-cent range.”
Accordingly, Ms. Chen said she does not see Couche-Tard’s valuation as “compelling” and lowered her target to $75 from $76. The average on the Street is $83.54.
"We would need to see materially better U.S. merchandise SSS and deceleration in opex growth, which may not occur for some time," she concluded.
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National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreehar expects to see “solid” growth from Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T) when the discount retailer reports its second-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on Aug. 27, emphasizing the recent $233-million acquisition of Australia’s The Reject Shop provides a “new growth vector.”
"We model solid Q2/F26 same-store sales growth, reflecting, among other factors, good consumer spending (Statistics Canada retail sales data show sequential improvement in May 2025) and internal data suggesting quarter-over-quarter sssg improvement,“ he said in a client note. ”Similarly, recall that DOL noted consumer resiliency in the second half of Q1/F26 (sssg trends improved through the quarter). Recall that the acquisition of The Reject Shop closed in late July 2025. We model slight EBITDA contribution from The Reject Shop during the quarter ($4-million; 2 weeks). Beyond the quarter, NBF models EBITDA contribution of $72-million from The Reject Shop over H2/F26.
“Dollarcity opened its first store in Guadalajara, Mexico, in late June 2025. Our analysis of early customer reviews on social media suggests that reception of the new Dollarcity Mexico store has been positive, which we view to be supportive to DOL’s long term Mexico ambitions.”
For the quarter, Mr. Shreedhar is projecting sales of $1.73-billion, up from $1.563-billion and above the consensus estimate of $1.7-billion, with same-store growth coming in at 5.0 per cent, rising from 4.7 per cent during the same period a year ago. His earnings per share forecast of $1.15 matches the Street’s projection and represents a gain of 13 cents year-over-year.
“We project a flattish gross margin rate (lower logistics costs, offset by unfavourable F/X, higher shipping rates, and unfavourable product mix) and higher SG&A (primarily reflecting contribution from the Australia acquisition),” he added.
Maintaining his “outperform” recommendation for Dollarama shares, Mr. Shreedhar raised his target to $213 from $207 to reflect a roll forward in his valuation period and “slightly” higher estimates. The average target on the Street is $203.71.
“We hold a positive view on DOL’s shares reflecting a stable, long-dated high-growth, high return on capital international growth story supported by strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet and resilient sales performance. We acknowledge execution and the macro backdrop are key,” he said, reiterating his investment thesis for the Montreal-based company.
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Scotia Capital analyst Orest Wowkodaw thinks valuations for mid- and large-cap miners "appear relatively attractive" following a roller-coaster second-quarter earnings period.
“We believe that the Q2/25 reporting season for the miners is best described by the title of the 1966 Clint Eastwood western “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly”," he said. “In one of the most volatile reporting seasons in recent memory, the market handsomely rewarded miners who simply met or in some cases beat consensus expectations, and who are on track to meet annual operating guidance (we highlight CS, HBM, and LUN for example). On the other hand, companies that missed expectations accompanied by negative guidance revisions were severely punished by investors (this includes CIA and TECK). This significant out-performance and under-performance among the equities in a flat commodity price environment serves to highlight the critical importance of basic execution and setting achievable market expectations. With several miners expecting stronger H2’s due to ramp-ups and grade sequencing, the group appears largely on track to achieve full year guidance.”
"After reviewing risk-reward profiles and valuations, CCO, CS, and FCX are now top picks. We also highly recommend ALS, CIA, ERO, HBM, LUN, and TECK (see below for more TECK thoughts). Among the developers, we prefer ASCU, DML, FOM, IE, MOON, NXE, and OM."
After updating his estimates for select developers and royalty companies to reflect second-quarter financials, Mr. Wowkodaw made one target price adjustment, lowering Arizona Metals Corp. (AMC-T) to $1.50 from $2 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $2.11.
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Seeing Artemis Gold Inc.‘s (ARTG-X) early commercial production at its Blackwater mine in central British Columbia “delivering to plan,” RBC Dominion Securities’ Harrison Reynolds expects a “continued ramp-up progress and delivery of production at peer-leading margins to support outperformance while a decision to optimize or upsize the plant by year-end could be a value accretive catalyst.”
In a report released Tuesday, the equity analyst thinks initial results “screen well with throughput outperforming design rates while grades and recoveries are showing month-over-month improvement.”
“Optionality is the name of the game when it comes to expansion scenarios: Management plans to deliver an update on a potential plant expansion by Q4 which we expect to be a key catalyst to unlock further value at Blackwater,” he adde. “The 2024 expansion study outlined an accelerated path to more than 500koz/year with Phase 2 in Year 3 (15Mtpa, $600-million capex) and Phase 3 in Year 7 (25Mtpa, $850-million) to maintain production levels at the lower grade profile.
“And a lot can change in 18 months: With the 60-per-cent higher gold price compared to the 2024 study date, greater financing flexibility, and production now being delivered out of Blackwater, we see alternative expansion scenarios, such as an upsized Phase 2 to be potentially more efficient. However, we believe interim operating performance and management trade-off analysis will uncover the most capital efficient path forward to maximize project value.”
Pointing to the mine’s “accelerated” expansion and continuing to predict “an eventual premium valuation,” Mr. Reynolds raised his target for Artemis shares to $38 from $34 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $32.13.
“Shares trade at 0.7 times NAV [net asset value] vs. peers at 0.85 times,” he said. “We inform our premium NAV multiple (1.2 times vs. peers at 1.0 times) based on the optionality embedded in Blackwater which is not fully captured in a mine model paired with the scarcity value of a Tier 1 asset in a quality jurisdiction with scaleable low-cost production, which warrants a premium valuation vs. peers, in our view.”
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In other analyst actions:
* BMO’s Michael Markidis initiated coverage of GO Residential REIT (GO.U-T) with an “outperform” rating and US$15 target. Other firms initiated coverage include: Scotia with a “sector outperform” rating and US$16 target and National Bank with an “outperform” rating and US$15 target.
“Our positive thesis is based on the high quality of GO’s trophy asset base, strong prospects for near-term organic growth, significant insider ownership, and deep discount to NAV. Political uncertainty and capital structure (above-average leverage and below-market debt) are two potential risks to our view. We believe the latter is partly mitigated by GO’s conservative payout and relatively limited capex profile,” said Mr. Markidis.
* Seeing it “continuing to execute well”, CIBC’s Hamir Patel upgraded Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (CHE.UN-T) to “outperformer” from “neutral” and increased his target to$15 from $12.50. The average is $15.50.
"After lagging the TSX Composite since we assumed coverage with a Neutral rating in early December2024, we now see a much improved backdrop for the company,“ said Mr. Patel. ”We are upgrading Chemtrade following the company’s strong Q2 results (17-per-cent beat), full-year guidance raise (up 10 per cent) and strategic acquisition announcement (5-per-cent-plus boost to EBITDA from Polytec). At the same time, with the company signalling limited interest in further near-term acquisitions following two deals this year (Polytec and Thatcher), we see an improving leverage profile and favorable capital allocation deployment (with CHE redeeming one of its converts as well as launching a new 10-per-cent NCIB). While the units rallied 10 per cent on Friday, we still see close to 30-per-cent total return based on our revised target."
* TD Cowen’s Sam Damiani cut his Dream Impact Trust (MPCT-UN-T) target to $1.75 from $3.25 with a “hold” rating. The average is $3.30.
“Today’s $30-milion market cap equals just 5 per cent of assets (2 per cent of assets including EAI) and is 88 per cent below our NAV,” said Mr. Damiani. “Lingering high interest rates remain a challenge. MPCT’s unit price has increasingly been trading on sentiment regarding the potential for meaningful improvement in balance sheet liquidity and FCF. We remain at HOLD while acknowledging the potential value that can be surfaced longer-term.”
* Scotia’s Ben Isaacson raised his Lithium Royalty Corp. (LIRC-T) target to $7.50 from $7 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $7.69.
“Our PT moves slightly higher to $7.50 on: (1) portfolio revisions that are now a little better than the bear case; and (2) a lithium inflection point that will likely occur sooner rather than later,” he said. “To set LIRC’s NAV, we continue to use long-term prices of $1,050/mt for spodumene and $15,000/mt LCE for lithium. Of course, as pricing has been depressed for quite some time, the volume outlook has been impacted too, bringing the Street’s ‘26 EBITDA outlook for LIRC to $nil, give or take. This, coupled with negative $5-million to $6-milion of cumulative EBITDA generated since its Q1/23 IPO suggests the market is comfortable assigning LIRCC$300MtoC$350Mof option value, rightly or wrongly. While we’re not convinced the latest spodumene bounce toward $1,000/mt must hold this time around, our work has shown a sustainable deficit forming in ‘28. Of course, it’s much easier to mine in Excel than in real life. If true, and considering: (1) the Street will soon roll onto ‘27; (2) negative portfolio catalysts finally appear complete; and (3) the team has navigated the B/S and SG&A exceptionally well, then a case is strengthening for LIRC to have now bottomed. While we maintain a Sector Perform rating, for now, this is a name to keep an eye on.”