Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Michael Harvey sees “positive operational momentum” for Paramount Resources Ltd. (POU-T) following the Monday’s release of a “solid” operational update that featured third-quarter volumes tracking ahead of guidance and an outlook positioned to meet or exceed guidance.
The Calgary-based company also announced the sale of 18.5 million shares of Nuvista Energy Ltd (NVA-T) at a price of $16 per share, which is 5-per-cent premium to Friday’s close, for total proceeds of $296-million. Mr. Harvey called it “a tidy piece of business,” believing “Paramount has crystallized a meaningful gain as a result of this investment.”
“Corporate volumes of 33,800 barrels of oil equivalent per day (47-per-cent liquid) were above prior Q3 guide of 30-32,000 boe/d, largely driven by the Willesden Green property which is running at approximately 11,500 boe/d on the back of success from new Duvernay wells and an early start-up at Alhambra,” he said. “Fourth quarter and full-year guidance remain unchanged for now at 43.5 mboe/d and 40.5 mboe/d, respectively (midpoints); our estimates are slightly higher than both figures on the back of [Monday’s] update.”
“Paramount has numerous upcoming catalysts, which include plans to make a final investment decision at Sinclair (400 mmcf/d plant + wells) by Q4/25 following additional testing. While the company has not detailed a formal estimate, we estimate that this project could map to roughly $700 million in investment including the facility and 20-30 new wells. Alhambra Phase 2 continues to target Q4/26, though we note there is potential that this target comes forward given history and execution success with Phase 1.”
After an increase to his cash flow expectations, Mr. Harvey raised his target for Paramount shares to $26 from $23, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average target on the Street is $25.13, according to LSEG data.
With respect to the company’s balance sheet we note a cash position that we expect to map to roughly $600 million at year-end, supporting what we expect will be a multi-year pace of outspend," he added.
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In a research report released Tuesday titled From Cactus to cathode, Desjardins Securities analyst Bryce Adams initiated coverage of Arizona Sonoran Copper Co. Inc. (ASCU-T) with a “buy” recommendation, touting “an attractive asset (the Cactus project in Arizona) and a discounted valuation which provides attractive investor appeal.”
Mr. Adams sees the Toronto-based developer possessing a “simple operational plan (open pit, heap leach)” for Cactus, which he thinks is “well-situated in the industrial area of Casa Grande, close to roads, power and water, and just 45 minutes from the Phoenix international airport.”
“We expect the Cactus pre-feasibility study (PFS) to highlight an open pit– only heap leach and solvent extraction and electrowinning (SX-EW) project with oxides and enriched material in the mine plan (primary sulphides excluded),“ he said. ”The company recently announced a land acquisition package that is sufficient for the PFS infrastructure. Overall, we view the asset as technically simple, with modest up-front capital requirements. We model US$900-million in initial capex but expect that our estimate may be conservative to the PFS. We estimate capital intensity of US$11,481/t, above that in the PEA but attractive vs selected peers.“
“We understand that the definitive feasibility study(2026E) should be linear to the PFS (2025E) and that once the PFS is completed the project will be well-defined, with modest scope and technical updates included in the DFS. That being the case, ASCU expects to file amendments to the state-level permits once the PFS is completed and for those to be accepted within eight months of submission. The air, water and reclamation bond permits should be completed in late 2026 around the same time as the DFS is scheduled for completion. In our view, these timelines dovetail favourably and will put ASCU in a strong position to be able to announce a financing package and FID in late 2026, followed by a two-year construction period and first production in 2029.”
Mr. Adams also thinks Cactus “stands out as one of the most competitive copper development projects in the region, supported by below-average cash costs relative to both operating mines and development projects, as well as strong annual production potential among intermediates/juniors in the region.”
“Based on the above project economics and timelines, as well as a favourable location and simple project details, we view ASCU as a strong takeout candidate. We note that both Rio Tinto (6.0 per cent) and Hudbay (9.9 per cent) are on the shareholder register and that the larger Ivanhoe Electric is adjacent to ASCU with its Santa Cruz project,” he noted.
Mr. Adams set a target of $5 per share. The current average is $4.05.
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Citing valuation concerns, Raymond James analyst Brian MacArthur downgraded Uranium Royalty Corp. (URC-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” previously, while he emphasized continuing to like its “exposure to uranium through the royalty model, as well as its growth profile, longer-term optionality, favourable jurisdictional risk, and strong balance sheet.”
“URC is a unique company as the largest publicly traded, uranium-focused royalty company,” he added. “We believe royalty companies like URC offer equity investors diversified exposure to commodity prices, while mitigating downside risk given limited exposure to operating and capital costs. At the same time, upside optionality exists through exploration and asset expansion potential. URC’s royalty portfolio is focused on uranium assets with lower jurisdictional risk, longer duration, and backed by some strong operators. Given URC’s high-margin business model, its diversification, near-term growth profile, longer-term optionality, favourable jurisdictional risk, and strong balance sheet, we believe URC offers investors a good way to get lower-risk exposure to uranium.”
After updating his forecast to reflect a review of operating updates by some operators for properties on which URC has royalties, Mr. MacArthur raised his target for the Vancouver-based company’s shares to $5 from $4.50. The current average is $4.75.
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Touting its “explosive growth with levers for more,” CIBC World Markets analyst Mark Petrie initiated coverage of Groupe Dynamite Inc. (GRGD-T) with an “outperformer” rating.
“We believe GRGD has created a unique apparel business model that reduces fashion risk while generating attractive financial metrics,” he said. “Growth runway in the U.S. is strong, supported by digital marketing and new stores. High-grading of locations is a key lever that elevates the brand and customer experience. Valuation has moved materially higher with better-than-expected growth and growing appreciation for the business model, but we see upside in both estimates and multiple.”
In a report released Tuesday, Mr. Petrie laid out his bullish view for the Montreal-based retailer, centring on substantial opportunities for gains both south of the border and online while emphasizing its “agile” supply chain and “unique” business model."
“Garage U.S. store count sits at 120 today and penetration remains well below peers,” he said. “The company is actively high-grading locations to elevate the brand and drive superior productivity. Store economics are compelling, with payback periods improving and now sitting at 18 months. Given sales momentum and runway for brand awareness, we believe there is a strong case for growth plans to be accelerated, or at the very least extended.”
“Hand-in-hand with the U.S. store network growth is active work to increase online engagement through both enhanced digital platforms and data-driven digital marketing. E-commerce sits at only 18 per cent of total sales, shy of GRGD’s 25-per-cent target and well below peers. GRGD has been getting an increasing amount of its web traffic from paid and social sources but spending is steady and still below peers.”
Mr. Petrie set a Street-high $65 target, exceeding the $56.50 average.
“Garage is the engine of growth today, but a re-vamped Dynamite 3.0 concept is in the market and resonating,” he added. “Similarly, the company will open its first few non-North American stores in the U.K. in Spring 2026, with five total sites confirmed. We see both as upside levers for growth over time.
“Stock Has Run On Growth And Quality Re-rate: GRGD shares are up 176 per cent from the IPO price as growth has vastly outperformed expectations and reached levels rarely seen; we summarize case studies in the report that highlight the opportunity and risk. Guidance and earnings estimates have also risen and clearly appreciation for the business model has also grown; NTM [next 12-month] P/E has more than doubled from IPO. We see further upside to both earnings and valuation as sales growth continues, though we acknowledge the importance of timely alt-data as a key factor in short-term share moves.”
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National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn thinks the allegations and evidence brought by Jehoshaphat Research in a short report released Monday claiming Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) is manipulating their reporting to delay and avoid reporting rising delinquencies and charge-offs are “without merit.”
Accordingly, in reaction to the 9.9-per-cent drop in the Mississauga-based company’s share price on Monday as well as a post-close analyst call in which management firmly refuted the allegations, Mr. Gloyn now sees “a buying opportunity.”
“The report includes former employer interviews and former competitor executive interviews to explain how frequently and easily GSY uses tactics to delay reporting charge-offs and delinquencies,” he said. “JR argues GSY will have to start reporting higher charge-offs as these loans will inevitably need to default and be charged-off and expects this catch-up in losses to ‘devastate earnings’. The report argues its thesis on the following points: i) GSY’s change in their definition of net charge-offs, ii) rising interest receivable as a percentage of interest income, iii) lower allowance rates on stage 3 loans, iv) large shift of loans into GSY’s “low-risk” category, v) the surprise departures of former CEO, Jason Mullins and CFO, Hal Khouri."
“JR’s evidence of manipulation (Rising interest receivables, lower allowance rates on stage 3 loans and the shift in loans to the ‘low risk’ category) is explained by GSY’s rapid increase in auto loans. GSY has grown its portfolio of auto loans from $40-million in 2021 to over $1-billion today,” he said. “The key is these loans are larger and typically benefit from a lower loss given default because they are secured by the vehicles. Unlike unsecured loans that charge-off after 90 days, secured auto loans will charge-off after 180 days. As these larger auto loans become delinquent, it is reasonable to see an increase in interest receivable. Further, because these loans are secured by vehicles where confidence in recovery is higher, it is also reasonable to report a decrease in stage 3 allowances as a percentage of loans outstanding. Additionally, the risk categorization of loans is determined based on probability of default, which can change based on collections abilities. GSY enhanced their collections capabilities in 2024 which could explain the change in classification.”
The analyst concluded the evidence presented by the Florida-based firm is explained by recent growth of GSY’s secured lending platform.
“We are aware of the potential volatility that can come with rapid growth of a lending vertical as we have seen with auto lending at GSY,” he noted. “We believe management is also aware of this and is actively making investments to improve collections and underwriting. That said, this does not imply that GSY is involved in any accounting games or excessive ‘kick the can’ activity.”
Mr. Gloyn reiterated his “outperform” rating and $265 target for Goeasy shares. The average is $239.22.
Elsewhere, Scotia Capital’s Phil Hardie cut his target to $225 from $235 with a “sector perform” rating.
“The release of a short report alleging that goeasy has improperly delayed credit losses and materially unreported loan delinquencies has put near-term pressure on the stock,” he said. “We believe the central theme of the report follows a relatively well-worn path for short-sellers that target lenders during transitioning economies. The author alleges that company uses “pretend and extend” practices to avoid reporting delinquencies and uses accounting approaches that delay reporting of loan losses and other expenses.
“We don’t buy into the report’s bearish view that delayed net-charge-offs are likely to drive a significant earnings miss for 2026, or that GSY is engaged in questionable practices. Following a 10-per-cent one-day decline in the stock after the release of the report, we would not be surprised to see a near-term bounce to recover some lost ground, however we think the report will sharpen investor focus on underlying delinquency and portfolio credit performance trends and constrain near term multiple expansion. Ultimately we think the key to sustainably removing any overhang will be delivering solid results with the charge-off rate remaining in line with the targeted range with late stage delinquencies also trending down.”
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National Bank Financial analyst John Shao came away from a visit to Zedcor Inc.’s (ZDC-X) Denver branch with “a higher conviction” that the mobile surveillance and live monitoring solutions company current growth is “sustainable,” sensing “a strong engagement among local employees who are constantly searching for new business opportunities while providing high-quality services.”
“Our discussion with customers was unsolicited and could be cross-referenced to our previous channel checks, all of which suggest that Zedcor has the market-leading product and services,” he said in a report titled The “Local Touch” is the Biggest Barrier to Entry.
Mr. Shao thinks the success of the branch can be “replicated and thus Zedcor’s geographic expansion is scalable” with limited capital needed to open a branch that can serve multiple neighbouring states. He concluded growth across the United States is “achievable.”
“This is a high pace work environment with Zedcor staff constantly taking inbound calls for new tower deployments, client service requests and new business opportunities,” the analyst said. “The quick turnaround of inventory plus the limited return at this branch are accurately reflected in Zedcor’s growth (84 per cent from the most recent quarter) and a high asset utilization rate of over 90 per cent.
“We get a better sense of what the barrier to entry is – it is the local touch. When the Company employs a group of highly motivated individuals who diligently search for new market opportunities and invest their time to build relationships with individual decision makers, we believe this diligence and local touch are the biggest entry barrier, along with Zedcor’s high standard of service. Investors who are newly introduced to this story tend to believe the product entry barrier is low. We share the same view in terms of the product itself – but believe the real moat lies in the execution, relationships and service quality that are much harder to replicate."
Mr. Shao reaffirmed his “outperform” rating and $5.50 target for the Toronto-based company’s shares. The average is currently $5.57.
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In other analyst actions:
* Pointing to growth and margin concerns, Baird’s Mark Altschwager downgraded Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU-Q) to “neutral” from “outperform” with a US$195, down from US$225 and below the US$208.66 average on the Street.
“Our downgrade reflects low near-term confidence in the growth and margin trajectory,” he said.
* In response to its definitive agreement to acquire Royal Camp Services Ltd. for $165-million, Acumen Capital’s Trevor Reynolds raised his Black Diamond Group Ltd. (BDI-T) target to $17 from $14.50 with a “buy” rating.
“Overall, we view the acquisition as positive and expect the combined assets to provide BDI with strong exposure to expedited major projects in Canada along with increased defence spending,” said Mr. Reynolds.
* CIBC’s Kevin Chiang cut his target for Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) to $140 from $148 with a “neutral” rating. The average is $157.33.
“We have adjusted our estimates for CN and CP to reflect quarter-to-date volume trends. We have lowered our Q3/25E EPS for CN by 10 per cent and for CPKC by 6 per cent. Our 2025E and 2026E EPS for CN move down by 4.5 per cent on average, while our CPKC estimates are essentially unchanged. We see both Canadian rails trading at compelling valuations, with CPKC remaining our Outperformer ($122 price target unchanged),” he said.
* After hosting Crombie REIT (CRR.UN-T) for non-deal roadshow meetings last week, Raymond James’ Brad Sturges raised his target to $17.50 from $17, exceeding the $16.31 average, with a “strong buy” recommendation.
“We believe Crombie features a number of attractive investment attributes, including: 1) exposure to positive Canadian grocery-anchored retail demand and supply fundamentals; 2) a predictable low-to-mid single digit SP-NOI and AFFO/unit growth profile; 3) an 6-per-cent distribution yield that could grow over time based on the REIT’s sub 80-per-cent AFFO payout ratio; 4) strong balance sheet metrics that provides financial flexibility to pursue its various growth initiatives; 5) its Empire sponsorship that can provide a proprietary pipeline of acquisition and development growth opportunities; and 6) its new Montez and Wesgroup development entitlement JV relationships that improves Crombie’s financial flexibility and establishes a management fee income stream,” he said.
* Beacon Securities’ Bereket Berhe raised his 12-month target for Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-T) to $7.80 from $6 with a “buy” rating. The average is $6.74.
“On September 10, 2025, we met Montage management for an update on project related progress. On August 12, 2025, the company provided an update on its Q2 and H1/25 activities at its Koné project in Côte d’Ivoire. MAU provided an update on its exploration program for the Koné gold project (KGP) and its construction activities, which continue to advance rapidly. MAU underscored that it is well on track to achieve the previously published short-term objective ofdiscovering over 1MMoz of M&I resources at a 50-per-cent higher grade compared to the Koné deposit. MAU also reaffirmed that construction continues to progress at a rapid pace and remains well on schedule for first gold pour in Q2/27 and on-budget. In H1/25, MAU’s efforts focused on infill and extension drilling of previously delineated starter deposits, advancing pre-resource targets toward maiden resource definition, and testing new targets.”