Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Analysts were generally impressed with Toronto-Dominion Bank’s (TD-T) investor day presentation on Monday, with at least four raising their price targets on the stock.
“The message was clear: the bank will focus on deepening client relationships, simplifying the bank, and maintaining cost and capital allocation discipline,“ commented Desjardins Securities analyst Doug Young. ”Management gave a wide range of medium-term targets, some of which are ambitious. So, it is all about execution now.”
Mr. Young increased his fiscal year EPS estimate to reflect a higher level of buybacks, and raised his target price to C$116 from C$110. He maintained a “buy” rating.
In its presentation Monday, TD said it sees potential to leverage AI to unlock about C$1 billion in value. It said it has identified C$2 billion to C$2.5 billion in annualized cost savings, while newly appointed chief operating officer Taylan Turan will be overseeing the execution of these strategic initiatives. The bank said it is committed to using stock buybacks to drive shareholder value.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Matthew Lee raised his price target to C$119 from C$113 and reiterated a “buy” rating.
“In our view, management’s reinstated guidance was largely better than our expectations (16% Return on Equity vs. our expected 15%) as the weight of continued AML [anti-money laundering] investments are more than offset by strength in Wealth and Capital Markets, improving efficiency, and a bolstered buyback program,” Mr. Lee said in a note to clients. “We were impressed by TD’s cost focus, with the firm expecting positive operating leverage in fiscal 2026 and $2-2.5B in cost reductions over the medium term. In addition, we view the firm’s buyback ambitions ($14-15B in total repurchases) as prudent, creating a meaningful tailwind to EPS while helping to improve return on equity.”
“While TD has outperformed the Big-6 year-to-date and largely reached a group-average multiple (12.9x next twelve months P/E), we opine that there is a road for TD to return to being a premium bank as management delivers on its 16% return on equity and high single-digit earnings growth targets,” Mr. Lee added.
Elsewhere, Jefferies raised its target price to C$124 from C$120 and BMO raised its target price to C$107 from C$102.
The average analyst price target on TD is now C$108.69, up from C$103.85 a month ago, according to LSEG data.
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TD Cowen analysts led by Aaron Bilkoski have downgraded three of the energy stocks it covers, citing their higher valuations at a time of broad commodity price weakness. The bank also revised its commodity price assumptions for the rest of this year and 2026, while introducing 2027 financial estimates for the energy stocks it covers.
Nuvista Energy Ltd (NVA-T) saw its price target cut to C$17 from C$18 and rating downgraded to “hold” from “buy”. “In our view, the current share price now largely captures the full value of the company’s assets in the current commodity price environment, and the equity is trading at a 2026E EV/DACF [Enterprise Value/Debt-Adjusted Cash Flow] of 4.2x versus peers at 3.9x and a 2026 free cash flow yield of 8% versus peers of 10%,” TD said. The average analyst price target is C$17.42.
Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T) was downgraded to “sell” from “hold” but with a higher price target of C$104, up from C$102. “IMO is currently trading at 9.8x consensus EV/EBITDA and has traded at an average trailing-five-year multiple of 6.1x. IMO’s operational execution has been near flawless over the past 5 years, but the offering of high-quality assets/execution and defensiveness (pristine balance sheet + low WTI breakeven) now comes at a high price, on our estimates,” TD analysts said. The average analyst price target is C$107.80.
Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU-T) was downgraded to “hold” from “buy” with the price target dropped to C$68 from C$73. “In our view, the near-term free cash flow is limited, given the significant planned infrastructure capex and our reduced AECO price forecast through 2026. We view the current valuation as relatively stretched versus peers,” TD said. The average analyst target is C$74.70.
As for its commodity price forecasts, oil assumptions were largely unchanged, with long-term WTI prices seen at US$65 a barrel. But it sees higher crack spreads - the price difference between crude and the refined petroleum products made from it - and lower natural gas prices than it previously envisioned.
HHUB and AECO natural gas price forecasts for 2026 were reduced by 6% and 7%, respectively, to reflect higher inventories, particularly in Canada, which are approaching basin limits. “The storage overhang in Canada has been exacerbated by pipeline maintenance and a slower-than-expected LNG Canada ramp-up than we had originally modelled,” TD noted.
TD also increased its U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar exchange rate forecasts by 1% in 2026 and 2027, which it said will generate a modest headwind for financial estimates.
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National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine trimmed his price target on Cineplex Inc. (CGX-T) to C$13 from C$13.50 following disappointment at the box office in the third quarter.
He said the quarter had been facing tough comparables to 2024 results, but wound up also lacking patrons due to an absence of blockbusters post-July.
“Box office in July was +0.4% and -27% in August. We now estimate +8.5% in September and -8.5% for Q3 to $160M - we entered quarter with a forecast of $182M,” Mr. Shine said in a note to clients.
However, the outlook for the fourth quarter is looking favourable, he said.
“Despite some of the disappointment of 2025 which hasn’t lived up to expectations, industry optimism persists heading into Q4 and especially looking out to 2026 which features a release slate of more films and numerous blockbusters,” Mr. Shine said.
As such, he still rates the stock as “outperform.”
The average analyst target is C$12.85.
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TD Cowen analyst Jonathan Kelcher cut his price target on European Residential REIT (ERE-UN-T) to C$1.25 from C$2.75 to reflect the C$1.46 special distribution paid out on Sept. 25.
“We reiterate our hold rating and believe units are fairly valued at current prices,” he said.
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In other analyst actions:
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL-T): Stifel cuts target price to C$10.75 from C$13
Canadian National Railway Co (CNR-T): Bernstein cuts target price to C$148 from C$149
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP-T): Bernstein raises target price to C$121 from C$120
Dentalcorp Holdings Ltd. (DNTL-T): Stifel cuts target price to C$11 from C$12.5 and downgrades rating to “hold” from “buy”
Foran Mining Corp (FOM-T): Cormark Securities raises price target to C$4.25 from C$3.75
Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T): CIBC cuts target price to C$23 from C$26
General Motors (GM-N): JP Morgan raises target price to US$80 from US$60
Tesla Inc. (TSLA-Q): Canaccord Genuity raises target price to US$490 from US$333