Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Seeing a “solid entry point for a high-quality name,” National Bank Financial analyst Travis Wood upgraded PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (PSK-T) to an “outperform” recommendation from “sector perform” previously following the late Monday’s release of in-line third-quarter financial results.
“A combination of expected growth out of high-quality assets, which are expected to ramp over the next year, and reasonable valuation following lagging performance over the last 12 months are the key drivers for our upgrade,” he said in a client note.
“Surprisingly, PSK has been one of the weakest energy performers over the last year (down 12 per cent vs. the XEG up 4 per cent and our royalty coverage down 6 per cent). Looking ahead and despite the softer oil price outlook, we revised our growth forecast modestly higher (from contraction). This growth, coupled with indirect capital exposure and further opportunistic buybacks at reasonable value presents attractive upside based on our $33 target price (36-per-cent total return).”
After the bell, the Calgary-based company reported average royalty production of 25,687 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down 3 per cent from the second quarter but up 5 per cent year-over-year and in line with both Mr. Wood’s estimate of 25,700 barrels and the consensus expectation of 25,600 barrels. Cash flow per share of 38 cents was a sequential drop up 7 per cent and a year-over-year decline of 1 per cent but also matched forecasts (38 cents and 37 cents, respectively). Cash flow of $90-million was used to fund $60.5-million in dividends, equating to a 67-per-cent payout ratio.
“Overall, 201 wells were spud on PSK lands during the quarter (up 78 per cent quarter-over-quarter; down 19 per cent year-over-year), with sequential activity up on account of spring breakup,” said Mr. Wood. “A total of 183 oil wells were spud in Q3, comprised of 57 Clearwater, 46 Mannville light and heavy oil wells, 33 Viking wells, 18 Mississippian wells, 11 Duvernay wells and 18 additional oil wells across various plays. The heavy portfolio continues to garner a healthy dose of interest, with another 105 multilaterals drilled in the quarter (this includes 57 wells in the Clearwater and 20 in the Mannville Stack). So far this year, multilats represent 40 per cent of the total spuds on PrairieSky lands.”
Despite minor reductions to his full-year 2025 and 2026 cash flow projections, the analyst raised his target for PrairieSky shares by $1 to $33. The average target on the Street is $30.18, according to LSEG data.
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When Saputo Inc. (SAP-T) reports its second-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on Nov. 6 after markets closed, National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar is expecting it announce 24-per-cent year-over-year earnings per share growth driven largely by gains south of the border.
“Several factors [are] contributing to improving results,” he said. “In USA, we expect EBITDA margin to expand by 180 basis points year-over-year (at 8.3 per cent), largely reflecting better efficiency, favourable product mix, slightly favourable F/X, and operating leverage partly offset by a negative milk-cheese spread (albeit the new USDA milk pricing formula is expected to be favourable), and higher marketing/promotions. In Canada, we forecast EBITDA margin expansion of 35 basis points year-over-year (at 12.9 per cent), largely reflecting operating leverage, favourable product mix, higher pricing and SG&A cost optimization, etc.
“In International, we expect lower sales volumes, partly offset by favourable product mix, higher international dairy ingredient market prices and milk availability in Argentina. We expect an unfavourable relationship between ARS devaluation and inflation (albeit improving sequentially). In Europe, we expect an unfavourable product mix, offset by a favourable relation between selling prices and input costs.”
Mr. Shreedhar is currently projecting quarterly revenue for the Quebec-based dairy giant of $4.590-billion, down from $4.708-billion a year ago and under the consensus estimate of $4.787-billion. However, his EBITDA and earnings per share forecasts of $435-million and 46 cents represent notable increases from a year ago ($389-million and 37 cents) and fall in line with the Street ($432-million and 46 cents).
“We model EBITDA growth of 12 per cent year-over-year in F2026, reflecting efficiency initiatives, moderation in duplicate costs, modest recovery in Argentina and modest growth, in addition to other factors,” he explained.
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Saputo shares, Mr. Shreedhar raised his target by $1 to $36. The average on the Street is $35.89.
“We believe that Saputo will benefit from a variety of initiatives/factors that will benefit profitability more fulsomely in F2026+, including efficiency initiatives, improved commodities backdrop, lower capex/costs, in addition to attractive valuation with 6-per-cent FCF yield in F2026,” he said. “Additionally, we are constructive on share buybacks, and a focus on organic growth vs. M&A, for now.
“Saputo is trading at 16.8 times our NTM [next 12-month] EPS vs. the five-year average of 17.3 times.”
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In a client report previewing earnings season for North American renewable energy companies titled No More Sitting on the Fence, Citi analyst Vikram Bagri downgraded Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ-Q) to a “sell” rating from “neutral” previously, seeing the Guelph, Ont.-based company “facing multiple challenges in the near term that ... are not fully reflected in the stock price which is up more than 30 per cent year-to-date.”
“These include: 1) Potential penalties from the US Court of International Trade; 2) FEOC restrictions starting January 2026; 3) Section 232 investigation on Polysilicon; 4) Relatively high leverage in the project development business; and 5) Significant dependency on the U.S. market to sustain operations within CSI Solar segment,” he explained.
“Each one of these risks poses a significant threat to the company’s business. For instance, the potential penalties from Court of International Trade could be high enough to pose an existential crisis for the company. Loss of U.S. business due to FEOC/Section 232 could also destabilize the CSI Solar segment. Notably, U.S. is the only large and profitable market for CSIQ’s PV panels business. Finally, the development business (Recurrent Energy) has minimal EBITDA and consumes significant cash to be a standalone publicly traded entity. Longer term, if Recurrent achieves its targeted installs and successfully contracts them at market prices, the implied leverage in that business would be approximately 4 times (excluding non-recourse debt) and 10 times (excl non-recourse), which appears relatively high.”
Mr. Bagri thinks the new U.S. federal “Foreign Entity of Concern” (FEOC) rules will likely have a significant impact new bookings and business operations for Canadian Solar, while he also emphasized the potential damage brought on by retroactive tariffs.
“CSIQ faces FEOC restrictions through two channels: 1) ownership/control tests which could disqualify it or its customers from claiming credits; and 2) ‘material assistance’ sourcing tests that require non‑FEOC content," he said. “We examine each of these in turn. First, CSIQ’s Chinese subsidiary, CSI Solar, is responsible for US manufacturing with investments in Mesquite, TX (PV module assembly facility), Jeffersonville, IA (PV cell facility), and Shelbyville, KY (battery storage facility). Per the ownership restriction, taxpayers claiming credits must not be a prohibited foreign entity (PFE) or under “effective control” by a PFE. Treasury guidance on what constitutes effective control is yet to be released, however, previously issued guidance used a 25-per-cent threshold to determine control, which could inform forthcoming guidance. Until CSIQ meets this threshold, it and/or its customers could be prevented from claiming 45X and 48E credits, respectively. While the company is confident about meeting FEOC compliance including via ownership changes, PV and storage bookings could still be negatively impacted. Furthermore, Treasury guidance on FEOC may not be fully resolved until sometime next year. For CSIQ, the options appear limited to decreasing or eliminating CSI Solar’s ownership stake in the facilities. However, the US is only profitable market for its PV modules except for small volumes in Japan. Recurrent Energy has also historically sourced modules from CSI Solar."
“In August, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that tariffs must be retroactively collected on PV modules and cells imported during the 2022-2024 tariff exemption period. We estimate CSIQ imported 9-10GW of modules to the US during the moratorium period, predominantly from Thailand. Assuming a $25¢/W declared value, the impacted imports are worth $2.5-billion, we estimate. CSIQ has until October 2026 to contest the decision, and we understand that it plans to do so. While the importer of record could potentially cease operations, this could have repercussions for doing business in the U.S. in the future."
Emphasizing the U.S. is a key market for the company with roughly 50 per cent of the revenues generated in the country, Mr. Bagri maintained his target for the company’s shares of US$11, which is below the consensus on the Street of US$12.03.
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RBC Dominion Securities analyst Douglas Miehm sees DRI Healthcare Trust’s (DHT.UN-T) acquisition of a royalty interest in U.S. net sales of Viridian Therapeutics Inc.’s (VRDN-Q) thyroid eye disease franchise for a total purchase price of up to US$300-million as “attractive” and finds the limited upfront payment of US$55-million and built-in downside protections on the unapproved assets “to be appealing.”
Shares of Toronto-based DRI jumped 5.9 per cent on Monday in response to the premarket announcement of its second pre-approval deal, following last year’s acquisition of royalties on Ekterly, a oral on-demand therapy for hereditary angioedema developed by KalVista Pharmaceuticals.
“The royalty acquisition of another pre-approval asset does not come as a surprise to us and aligns with management’s commentary during the Q2 earnings call in mid-August, where increasing competition from alternative fixed income players for simpler transactions was highlighted,” said Mr. Miehm.“ Such competition has driven down returns in traditional royalty deals, prompting DRI to shift focus toward more complex, structured opportunities including pre-approval assets.”
“The upfront payment of $55-million represents only 18 per cent of the total transaction value ($300-million), with additional payments contingent on achieving specific clinical, regulatory, or sales-based milestones. Importantly, the transaction includes designated timelines (not disclosed) by which these milestones must be met. This ensures that DRI’s exposure is limited in the event of regulatory or clinical delays. With regard to the VRDN-003 asset, where Ph3 clinical readouts are expected in H1/26, if marketing approval for VRDN-003 is not granted by a specified date, the royalty rate on the first tranche (up to $600-million) could increase from 7.5 per cent to the low double digits for both drugs.”
Reaffirming his “outperform” rating for DRI units, the analyst raised his target to $21 from $19. The average is $19.69.
Elsewhere, CIBC World Markets’ Erin Kyle increased her target to $19 from $17.50 with an “outperformer” rating.
“With clinical and regulatory catalysts expected in 2026, we view this transaction as an attractive addition to DRI’s portfolio. Based on current consensus estimates, if approved, the royalty would represent DRI’s largest annual cash flow stream and would significantly extend the duration of the portfolio with biologic exclusivity in the U.S. for 12 years. After incorporating the royalty into our valuation model and adjusting our discount rate to reflect a higher proportion of pre-approval drugs in the portfolio, our price target increases,” she said.
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Ahead of third-quarter earnings season for Canada’s diversified financial firms, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Bart Dziarski named Brookfield Corp. (BN-N, BN-T) his “top” investment idea.
“For Q3/25 our primary focus is on: i) Brookfield entities (BN/BAM/BBU) - fundraising/deployment/ monetization environment and Brookfield’s view on private credit, including Oaktree’s track record of disciplined capital deployment, in light of recent “cracks” (e.g. Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcies, Zions Bank writedown, BDC weakness); ii) P&C insurance (DFY, FFH, IFC, TSU) - benefits from a benign CAT loss season and premium growth outlook, particularly in commercial; iii) TMX - impacts of AI on TMX’s Trayport business and whether AI is a net opportunity or risk for the business longer-term (in our view AI represents an opportunity) and iv) EFN - new customer wins and service revenue outlook," he said.
For Brookfield, Mr. Dziarski reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and US$57 target. The average on the Street is US$50.56.
“We believe current valuation provides an attractive entry point into a leading franchise set to benefit from increasing carried interest realizations and its growing Wealth Solutions business,” he said. “A controlling position in BAM, one of the world’s largest, differentiated alternative asset managers, contributes further to NAV growth.”
The analyst called Element Fleet Management Corp. (EFN-T) his “top growth pick” with an “outperform” rating and $47 target, exceeding the $43.26 average.
“Element is entering what we view as the 5th stage in its evolution with expected 15-per-cent-plus EPS growth over the near term, ROE expansion from mid-teens to high-teens driven by a growing portion of capital-light revenue, all in our view while continuing to provide counter-cyclical upside and defensive attributes underpinned by a lower-risk business model with a sticky client base,” he said.
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T) is his “top value pick” with an “outperform” rating and US$2,200 target. The average is $2,896.82 (Canadian).
“We expect Fairfax’s underwriting results to remain strong in a favourable (albeit slowing) pricing environment where Fairfax has a historical track record of opportunistic growth. Fairfax’s investment portfolio has been re-positioned to take advantage of the current interest rate environment driving improving investment results, which we expect to continue,” he said. “We expect the valuation discount vs. peers to narrow as Fairfax continues to deliver solid operating results.”
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Stifel analysts Ralph Profiti and Cole McGill raised their copper and uranium price forecasts on Tuesday, pointing to “market vulnerability from supply shocks”
“We increase our 2025 copper price forecast to $4.45/lb (up 2 per cent vs. previous $4.34/lb), our 2026 to $4.85/lb (up 10 per cent vs. previous $4.40/lb), our 2027/2028 to $5.00/lb (up 18 per cent vs. previous $4.25/lb) and increase our LT (2032) copper price forecast to $4.50/lb (up 6 per cent vs. previous $4.25/lb),“ they said. ”We estimate recent supply shocks (including GBC, Kamoa-Kakula, Quebrada Blanca, Constancia) have removed approx. 1.1Mt of copper over the next three years (2025-2027) and reinforce our long-standing view of the market’s vulnerability to unanticipated supply shocks following a decade of underinvestment in new capacity, with prices remaining below incentive levels and relatively low inventories.
“Our long-term copper price forecast of $4.50/lb vs. current spot price of $4.97/lb maintains a conservative tilt that aligns with pricing assumptions to be used for long-term capital allocation decisions by copper producers and our estimate of long-term incentive price of $5.04/lb. Our incentive-price analysis suggests consensus long-term copper prices are too low given the structurally higher all-in costs of building new capacity, higher operating costs, risk of construction delays, higher royalties & taxation, and increased permitting and social licence risks at emerging supply centres, which support our view that long-term copper prices above spot prices are justified.“
For uranium, the analysts increased their long-term price forecast to $120 per pound, up 14 per cent from their previous projection of $105, expecting “market deficits through 2029 against a backdrop of moderate mine production growth and execution risk of several key projects.”
With those changes, Mr. Profiti made two rating revisions to stocks in his coverage universe.
He upgraded First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T) to “buy” from “hold” with a $38 target, up from $26. The average on the Street is $32.06.
“Q3/25 financial results are expected to be favourably impacted by the sale of copper concentrate stored at Cobre Panama,” he said. “FY25 production guidance targets are expected to be driven by ramp-up of Kansanshi S3 and grade improvement at Sentinel. We believe our copper price forecasts drive an opportunistic relative risk:reward ratio of how Cobre Panama is priced into the shares, which we currently view as undervalued considering restart potential. FM continues to target resolution by YE25 and maintains a public outreach program to ensure transparency and stakeholder engagement.”
Conversely, he lowered Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T) to “hold” from “buy” with a $37 target, up from $26. The average is $30.86.
“Tucumã production ramp up continued in Q3/25 after commercial production announced on July 1, 2025 and we have made further adjustment to our estimates to incorporate a slower Tucumã ramp-up in H2/25 and 2026, lower production of Caraíba for H2/25 and 2026 on more conservative mining rate and grade forecasts, and lower Xavantina H2/25 gold production,” he explained. “FY25 Xavantina gold production is expected to be at the low end of revised guidance. Ero Copper still offers investors exposure to a high-margin, growth-oriented copper-gold producer with a strategic focus on Brazil and mid-tier target M&A appeal, while the production ramp-up is expected to be slower than anticipated.”
For their “preferred industrial metals picks,” the analysts’ target adjustments are:
- Cameco Corp. (CCO-T, “buy”) to $150 from $115. The average is $117.94.
- Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T, “buy”) to $17 from $12. Average: $13.57.
- Foran Mining Corp. (FOM-T, “buy”) to $5.50 from $4.75. Average: $4.58.
- Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T, “buy”) to $28 from $20. Average: $22.06.
- IsoEnergy Ltd. (ISO-T, “buy”) to $25 from $22. Average: $21.66.
- Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T, “buy”) to $26 from $18. Average: $22.19.
- NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T, “buy”) to $20 from $17. Average: $14.52.
- Taseko Mines Ltd. (TKO-T, “buy”) to $7.25 from $5.50. Average: $5.17.
- Western Copper & Gold Corp. (WRN-T, “buy”) to $6 from $5.50. Average: $4.38.
Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Craig Hutchison also downgraded Ero Copper, moving it to “hold” from “buy” with the view its shares “are fully valued at this time.” His target rose to $33 from $24.
“In addition, we believe risks still remain surrounding the timing of Tucumã to ramp up to full design capacity,” he added.
“As a reminder, production at Tucumã through the first half of 2025 (11.4kt) was tracking below guidance, largely due to repair and maintenance issues with its tailing filter press. The company is focused on driving steady operating improvements and exiting this year at 80 per cent of design, and we believe Tucumã’s operational performance will be a key focus for Q3/25 results. To allow for a slower ramp, we trimmed our H2/25 production assumptions and lowered our 2026 production estimates. We now assume Tucumã will achieve its full design throughput in 2027.”
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In other analyst actions:
* Jefferies’ John Aiken upgraded Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T) to “buy” from “hold” and moved his target to $317 from $316. The average target on the Street is $326.77.
“[Intact] shares are down 16 per cent since it reported its (arguably strong) second quarter as slower premium growth appears to be priced in,” he said, “We believe that the pullback in its valuation now makes it quite compelling, and we are upgrading Intact to a BUY.”
* In response to an updated pre-feasibility study on its Cactus project, TD Cowen’s Derick Ma raised his Arizona Sonoran Copper Co. Inc. (ASCU-T) target to $6.50 from $4 with a “buy” rating. The average is $4.47.
“The updated Cactus PFS envisions a simplified mine plan with additional scale while remaining first quartile capital intensity. We highlight 3 project characteristics which we believe uniquely position the project for eventual development and/or additional strategic interest: (i) a mine plan focused entirely on copper cathode production for U.S. domestic consumption, (ii) first quartile capital intensity with relatively a low life-of-mine cash cost profile, and (iii) state-level permitting with land acquisition completed,” said Mr. Ma.
* Mr. Ma also increased his Faraday Copper Corp. (FDY-T) target to $2.25 from $1.50 with a “buy” rating to reflect his updated copper price deck as well as his assumed resource growth and project upside expectations. The average is $2.04.
“Copper Creek has been granted status as a FAST-41 Transparency project in the U.S. Federal Permitting dashboard. In our view, the designation positions Copper Creek as a U.S. domestic critical minerals project of potential significance, increases accountability and creates an opportunity for future elevation to ‘covered’ project status, in our view,” he said.
* CIBC World Markets’ power and utilities analyst Mark Jarvi raised his targets for several stocks in his coverage universe, including Emera Inc. (EMA-T, “neutral”) to $71 from $68, Fortis Inc. (FTS-T, “outperformer”) to $74 from $72 and Hydro One Ltd. (H-T, “neutral”) to $54 from $52. The averages are $67.21, $71.31 and $50.73, respectively.
“With Q3 results, we expect Regulated Utilities to meet or exceed consensus given generally solid loads and new rates,“ he said. ”We expect generally softer results for Power companies given less favourable generation trends in key regions and muted realized pricing trends for most. While Q3 results likely favour Utilities, we still like the Power names more from an investment landscape given some better momentum (have to look through weaker Q3), plus more growth and valuation upside. That said, markets and credit spreads (key metric we track for risk-on/off sentiment) have been more volatile—as such, investors should still hold some regulated exposure for a defensive hedge (ACO.X and FTS are preferred names). In the Alberta power names, we prefer CPX over the medium term (though TA might have a more tangible data centre update in the next few weeks). We’ve made modest price target increases for most names (no rating changes).”
* Barclays’ Raimo Lenschow raised his Open Text Corp. (OTEX-Q, OTEX-T) target to US$39 from US$33 with an “equal-weight” rating. The average is US$38.08.