Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
With retail investors continuing to participate in “the strong market performance,” TD Cowen analyst Graham Ryding expects the third-quarter results from Canadian asset managers to display notable inflows, leading him to raise his assets under management forecasts as well as earnings expectations.
"Sustained momentum in equity markets and the trend of lower interest rates are supporting flows into Canadian long-term mutual funds and ETFs,“ he said. ”$81-billion of ETF flows year-to-date (as of Sep-25) compares well to $47-billion year-to-date in 2024, while $23-billion into mutual funds year-to-date is a strong improvement from $1-billion year-to-date in 2024. The 21-per-cent flows rate (annualized) for ETFs is slightly above the long-term average, while the 1.4-per-cent mutual fund flows rate is in-line.
“Our estimates have moved higher given strong AUM growth since Q2/25. Traditional managers (IGM, AGF, FSZ) all generated annualized flow rates of 2-3 per cent in Q3/25, with a further 2-4 per cent of AUM growth from market performance. Sprott AUM growth in Q3/25 is expected to be material on the back of strong commodities’ performance. We are estimating Q3/25 AUM of US$49-billion, up a notable 23 per cent from Q2/25. This includes an impressive 10-per-cemt flows rate annualized (and further flows in Oct-25).”
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Ryding reaffirmed Onex Corp. (ONEX-T) as his top pick in the industry following last week’s announcement of a partnership with American International Group Inc. (AIG-N) to buy property insurer Convex Group Ltd. in a US$7-billion deal.
“We view the strategic shift positively as we believe this transaction should increase attention towards valuing Onex’s asset management business, and the increased visibility towards NAV should help tighten the discount to NAV valuation,” said Mr. Ryding.
“We also have Buy ratings on IGM and AGF. IGM is demonstrating solid earnings growth, and strategic investments are showing asset and valuation growth. AGF valuation remains attractive, in our view. Sprott’s AUM and earnings growth is very strong, but we believe its premium valuation appears fair (Hold rated). We acknowledge Fiera’s attractive total return potential; we will revisit our thesis and outlook with Q3/25 results.”
The analyst kept his “buy” rating and $165 target for Onex shares. The average target on the Street is $160.33, according to LSEG data.
Mr. Ryding made these target adjustments:
- AGF Management Ltd. (AGF.B-T, “buy”) to $18 from $17. Average: $16.75.
- IGM Financial Inc. (IGM-T, “buy”) to $64 from $57. Average: $58.
- Sprott Inc. (SII-T, “hold”) to $125 (a Street high) from $100. Average: $102.25.
=====
With Canada’s IT Services sector trading at multi-year lows, Desjardins Securities analyst Jerome Dubreuil does not expect third-quarter results to “spark a meaningful rebound.”
“The sector remains weighed down by several negative narratives, and it may take time before the market is more comfortable with it,” he said in a client report.
“There is no shortage of themes that negatively affect sentiment around the IT Services industry these days, including: (1) threat from AI; (2) slow macro environment due to global trade uncertainty; (3) US federal efficiency programs; (4) U.S. government shutdown; and (5) H-1B/Hire Act speculation. While we anticipate most of these themes will not have a material longterm negative impact on the IT Services industry, we also do not expect CGI’s quarterly results will be sufficiently strong to disprove the headwind concerns, especially since the company does not provide guidance.”
Mr. Dubreuil cut his target for shares of CGI Inc. (GIB.A-T) to $160 from $169, maintaining a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $159.67.
“It is difficult to get a clear readthrough for CGI this quarter based on peer comments, which have sounded mixed so far this reporting season,” he said. “However, the relatively high M&A contributions and the weakening of the C$ vs US$ since the last reporting season have brought the implied consensus organic growth for the quarter to negative 2 per cent, down from negative 1 per cent last quarter. Therefore, we believe consensus revenue is achievable. We see strong long-term value in the stock and believe it could be a good opportunity for the company to accelerate capital deployment. We have reduced our organic estimates overall and reduced our multiple in our NAV to reflect the headwind.”
He reiterated a “buy” rating and $3 for Alithya Group Inc. (ALYA-T). The average is $3.32.
“We look forward to seeing whether U.S. momentum was sustained in the quarter,” the analyst said. “However, we anticipate limited near-term improvement in Canada amid the review of IT investments in the government of Québec.”
=====
Following “mixed” third-quarter financial results, Scotia Capital Himanshu Gupta downgraded CT REIT (CRT.UN-T) to “sector perform” from “sector outperform” in reaction to a “solid” share price performance thus far in 2025.
“CRT is the best performing Retail REIT year-to-date, with total return of 19 per cent YTD (vs REIT Index up approximately 10 oper cent & Retail REITs up 12 per cent). Post Q3 in line results (details below), our target is increased to $17.00 (+$0.50) as our NAVPU [net asset value per unit] is increased to $17.00 (+$0.25). Due to modest total return potential, we are making the rating change.
“CRT is still attractive as an Income/Yield play with 5.8-per-cent distribution yield at 71-per-cent 2026 payout ratio. However, discount to NAV has narrowed. CRT trading at 5-per-cent discount to NAV versus REIT sector at 14-per-cent discount.”
In a note released before the bell, Mr. Gupta attributed the outperformance of defensive retail REITs versus their peers to expectations of weaker Canadian GDP growth in the second half of the year.
“Tariff escalation began in early Feb’25 and remained top of the mind post Liberation Day. Scotia Economics’ expect GDP growth improvement in Q2/26 & onward, and we think long defense trade has now largely played out,” he added. “Most sectors in Canada are not paying higher tariffs because of CUSMA, and we don’t see a big jump in the effective tariff rate of 6 per cent despite the current state of negotiations (as per Scotia Economics).
“Interestingly, CRT has been the best performing Retail REIT since its IPO in October 2013. CRT with annualized total return of 17 per cent, has outperformed REIT sector and Retail sector average by a wide margin - this is due to higher cash flow visibility (Canadian Tire covenant) and consistent growth (structured growth). However, we model modest earnings growth in the near-term, and also our reason to be on the sidelines. We expect 2024-26E AFFOPU CAGR [adjusted funds from operations per unit compound annual growth rate] of 3.7 per cent versus historical earnings growth of 4-per-cent to 5-per-cent range. Growth has been impacted by higher interest rates on debt refinancing, NOI erosion during Canada Square construction, and pace of new investments.”
Mr. Gupta’s new $17 target, rising from $16.50, exceeds the average target on the Street of $16.71.
=====
“While pleased to see upside in profit” for TVA Group Inc. (TVA.B-T) in its third-quarter results, National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine said he’s “surprised by recent working capital strength that helped lower debt more than expected.”
That led him to upgrade his recommendation for its shares to “sector perform” from “underperform” previously.
On Friday, the Montreal-based French-language television broadcaster, which is a subsidiary of Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T), reported quarterly revenue of $106.2-million, down 5.5 per cent year-over-year and below Mr. Shine’s forecast of $108.2-million. However, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) grew 51.4 per cent to $18.5-million, topping his $16.7-million.
He attributed the gap to “Broadcasting and upside in profits driven by belated traction in restructuring savings that boosted Broadcasting margin and unusuals in the segment - favourable retroactive adjustment in carriage rates of specialty TV channels ($1-million), reduction in digital services tax ($1-million), and retroactive adjustment for f2024 related to Online News Act.”
Pointing to the EBITDA beat and a drop in debt, Mr. Shine, who is currently the only analyst on the Street covering the company, raised his target to 75 cents from 25 cents.
=====
Viewing “the expected backing of the Government and a clear shift in how critical minerals ex-China are now regarded as a positive,” National Bank Financial analyst Mohamed Sidibé raised his rating for Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (NOU-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
During the G7 energy and environment ministers’ meeting in Toronto on Friday, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Tim Hodgson announced the first round of 26 new investments into strategic projects, including Montreal-based Nouveau Monde, under the Critical Minerals Production Alliance. The new pact involves purchase agreements, price floors and stockpiling in a co-ordinated bid to fight market manipulation from China.
“These are expected to unlock $6.4-billion in critical minerals projects and underscore shifting geopolitical priorities and the growing importance of securing critical mineral supply chains, not just for the U.S., which has been making significant equity investments in the space, but for the broader Western world,” said Mr. Sidibé. “It marks a decisive move from rhetoric to action. NOU concurrently announced a series of new and revised commercial agreements (75ktpa conc. binding or in term sheets, 30ktpa conc. still being negotiated with an established anode manufacturer, cancelation of prior GM offtake) to support a phased approach to development.”
The analyst sees the commercial agreement “as a positive step towards derisking cash flows tied to 50ktpa of offtake on a take-or-pay basis, with the potential to grow to 65ktpa upon finalization of the Government of Canada offtake terms.”
“Strategic offtake with the Government of Canada highlights the importance of NOU’s project for future domestic needs,” he added. “We raise our NAV target multiple from 0.80 times to 1.10 times to reflect the national priority premium.”
Mr. Sidibé raised his target for Nouveau Monde shares to $5 from $3.50. The average target is $5.77.
=====
Following three years of “muted” funds from operations gains due to rising interest costs, TD Cowen analyst Sam Damiani is predicting “a return to competitive growth in 2026” for Slate Grocery REIT (SGR.U-T, SGR.UN-T).
Seeing it offering “exposure to the strong fundamentals of U.S. grocery-anchored shopping centres through a TSX-listing with an attractive 8-per-cent cash yield,” he initiated coverage with a “hold” recommendation.
“Slate Grocery is a pure-play on the strong U.S. grocery-anchored retail property segment that we believe offers an attractive outlook combination of both stability and growth,” said Mr. Damiani. “Its 95-per-cent concentration in this real-estate subsector is the highest among both U.S. and Canadian peers. Demand/supply dynamics should remain healthy as the pace of new retail property construction is yet to show any sign of acceleration. The property portfolio is 60-per-cent-weighted to the U.S. sunbelt, which continues to lead on population and job growth. We believe this sets up for a long runway of steady rent growth.
“The U.S. and Canadian grocery-anchored retail-real-estate markets share many similar positive attributes. The key difference in the U.S. is more competition among grocers, 19 per cent more grocery stores per-capita, and greater e-commerce penetration. Overall, we see a stronger fundamental backdrop in Canada, where both the leasing markets and grocery industry are notably tighter, and there is clearer visibility that new competing development will not be a concern.”
In a client report released late Monday, he emphasized Slate Grocery currently possesses a higher concentration in both secondary markets and anchor tenant leases with fixed-rent renewal options, which limits its same-property net operating income growth from matching that of some of its peers.
“AFFO [adjusted funds from operations] unit growth seen matching peers from 2026,” said Mr. Damiani. “We forecast an 8-per-cent AFFO/unit decline in 2025 (well-below peers, due to interest costs and an occupancy dip), but improving to more in-line forecast growth of 4 per cent on average for 2026 and 2027. We forecast an improved AFFO payout ratio of 96 per cent by 2027 (vs. 104 per cent in 2025), which supports the stability of the current $0.86 annual cash distribution.”
Believing its current valuation is “fair” but touting an “attractive” 8-per-cent yield that should “appeal to income-oriented investors,” he set a target of US$11 per unit, matching the average on the Street.
“Slate Grocery is trading at 12.3 times 2026 estimated P/AFFO - a 26-per-cent discount to U.S. peers and a 12-per-cent discount to its closest Canadian peers (FCR, CHP, and CRR), which we view as appropriate (smaller size, higher debt, external management, and lower primary market exposure). On forward P/FFO, Slate Grocery’s trading valuation discount has tightened vs. both the U.S. peers (30 per cent currently vs. the 38-per-cent LTA [long-term average] discount) and Canadian peers (20 per cent vs. the 30-per-cent LTA discount).”
=====
In other analyst actions:
* Following “mixed” third-quarter results, ATB Capital Markets’ Tim Monachello downgraded Akita Drilling Ltd. (AKT.A-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” with a $2.50 target, down from $3 and matching the average on the Street.
“We understand AKT’s acute US margin compression was a function of 1) AKT’s highest margin rig coming off contract in early Q3/25; and 2) two of AKT’s higher-margin rigs being temporarily idled due to a customer supply chain issue,” he said. “Looking forward, we understand AKT expects all three US rigs to be reactivated by Q2/26, suggesting U.S. margins are likely to remain under pressure for at least three-to-six months. In Canada, we believe Q3/25 margins were largely a function of stronger than forecasted rig mix, which has limited impact to our forward estimates. Overall, while we believe AKT’s Canadian business is on stable footing, its U.S. outlook faces idiosyncratic risks related to the timing of customer programs and rig reactivations weighing on both activity and margins through at least Q1/26; meanwhile we believe the longer-term outlook is muddied by a somewhat tenuous macro-outlook with WTI trading in the US$55-$65/bbl range, and AKT’s US operations are fully exposed to the Permian basin. As such, we reduce our rating.”
* In response to its acquisition of Alabama-based Joe Hudson’s, the concurrent $780-million equity offering and preliminary third-quarter results, Stifel’s Daryl Young raised his Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD-T) target to $275 from $265 with a “buy” rating. The average is $267.73.
“Overall, we like the transaction given the strategic merits of adding a market leader in the high-growth U.S. Southeast while also solidifying Boyd’s industry ranking (but still significant room to grow with only 7.6-per-cent market share),” he said. “Additionally, JHCC brings strong margins. The headline valuation is reasonable at 9.3 times EBITDA, but we acknowledge it hinges heavily on realizing synergies/add-backs over multiple-years (ROIC will be depressed across 2026/2027). Leverage shifts higher to 3.4 times (4.3 times excluding synergies/add-backs) but we think its manageable given Boyd’s low cost of debt (assume less than 6.5 per cent) and relatively rapid path to de-leveraging as margins/SSSG recover.”
* Following Monday’s announcement of its recapitalization plan, TD Cowen’s Vince Valentini cut his Corus Entertainment Inc. (CJR.B-T) target to a penny from 5 cents previously with a “sell” recommendation. The average is $3.32.
“Corus’ recapitalization event reduces their debt substantially to 3.36 times, but there is still very little left over for the equity value held by current shareholders,” he said. “Almost the entirety of EV in the NewCo looks to be allocated to new debt instruments. Equity value in the NewCo may have some optionality if revenue/EBITDA improve, but we conclude that value for the current CJR.B merits a SELL rating.”
* Seeing the development of its Skouries project in Greece progressing on time and on budget, offsetting mixed third-quarter results, National Bank’s Don DeMarco raised his target for Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD-T) to $54 from $51, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $49.45.
* Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur bumped his Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV-N, FNV-T) target to US$236 from US$234 with an “outperform” rating. The average is US$219.02.
* In response to “slightly negative” third-quarter results, TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil trimmed his Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI-T) target to $23 from $24, keeping a “hold” rating. The average is $26.13.
“As expected, there were no new meaningful disclosures ahead of its upcoming IR day and the quarter was broadly in-line. Gibson has now disclosed several quarters of consistent marketing performance, which we now view as the status quo and we are reducing our go-forward Marketing segment estimates to reflect this dynamic until Canadian egress fundamentals change,” said Mr. MacNeil.
* Jefferies’ John Aiken cut his Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) target to $225 from $230 with a “buy” rating. The average is $234.20.
* Stifel’s Cole McGill initiated coverage of Goliath Resources Ltd. (GOT-X) with a “buy” rating and $5 target, exceeding the $3.80 average.
“Goliath’s rapidly emerging Surebet discovery (which sports two of the top five holes drilled on NA gold projects since 2020) has yielded assay results that support potential for the next multi-million ounce, high grade discovery in the Golden Triangle,” said Mr. McGill. “Combined with a relative infrastructure advantage (less than 10km from tidewater, with power, road connections nearby), we see both a i) fully funded 2026, 40km program able to continue increasing confidence in the discovery, alongside potential for multiple expansion as the market continues to digest the high grade, infrastructure proximal potential of the property.”
* Ventum Capital’s Rob Goff assumed coverage of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFG-CN) with a “buy” rating and $2.25 target, up from the firm’s previous $2 target.
“Our bullish view is founded on the strength of management’s stewardship and the attractive shareholder returns available given its strategic plan to achieve scale within the high-growth Quick-Serve Restaurant (QSR) vertical with selective development of Consumer-Packaged Goods (CPG) brands,” he said. “Proven, stock-incented management aims to optimize financial performance through organic and inorganic growth, with portfolio development that could lead to selected value monetization of brands over the next 12-36 months where HBFG sees significant scale premiums. Proceeds from monetization efforts could provide significant funds for acquisitions and the development of new brands where management has been realizing full paybacks within 24 months. The portfolio strategy and franchise model combine to make a very low-capital intensity, high ROIC business.
“We feel that HBFG should not be considered a concept stock but rather an investment whose ROIC profile reflects its superior financial profile. FCF/share from 2026-30 is forecast at $0.69. The FCF profile takes on greater significance where investments are expected to capture full paybacks within 24 months.”
* RBC’s Paul Treiber reduced his Lumine Group Inc. (LMN-X) target to $50 from $62, keeping an “outperform” rating, while TD Cowen’s David Kwan dropped his target to $48 from $59 with a “buy” rating. The average is $55.33.
“Lumine reported a mixed quarter, with revenue slightly below RBC/ consensus due to organic growth 200 bps below our estimates, while adj. EBITDA was effectively in line, and adj. EPS was better than expected. We are reiterating our Outperform recommendation, as we see no change in Lumine’s shareholder value creation strategy and anticipate continued compounding of capital at high rates. However, our price target moves from $62.00 to $50.00 to reflect peers’ downwards valuation re-rating,” said Mr. Treiber.
* Ahead of its quarterly release on Nov. 10, RBC’s Ryland Conrad raised his Premium Brands Holdings Corp. (PBH-T) target to $118 from $108 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $113.25.
“Following a multi-year investment cycle, management continues to execute on U.S. growth initiatives with significant capacity expansion and a healthy sales pipeline setting the foundation for an inflection in organic growth, margin expansion and FCF generation, beginning in earnest in H2/25,” he said. “With improving visibility on both the revenue and de-levering trajectories and potential for sizable upward earnings revisions (with consensus still well below the company’s 2027 targets), we view current levels as an attractive accumulation opportunity with the stock trading at 10.0 times FTM [forward 12-month] EV/EBITDA (versus a recent historical range of 9.0-16.0 times).”
* Seeing Wajax Corp.’s (WJX-T) third-quarter results as a “good performance amid a lacklustre backdrop,” National Bank’s Maxim Sytchev raised his target to $25 from $22 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $25.50.
“This is the third better print from the company year-to-date, explaining the 19-per-cent share price advance this year, lagging the TSX only marginally (up 22 per cent year-to-date; equipment peers like TIH/FTT at up 48 per cent/99 per cent, respectively),” said Mr. Sytchev. “The challenge, however, remains that we are still clawing our way back from the de-rating that took place mid-2024, a time frame vs. which 2025/2026 EBITDA is still lower to the tune of down 18 per cent/down 13 per cent. With Industrial Parts/ERS also being more exposed to the moribund Canadian manufacturing sector (and that’s almost 45 per cent of the top line), there are not many positive catalysts one can point to when thinking about investment thesis evolution. We do believe that the outgoing CEO put the company on the correct path centred around creating less cyclicality but the whole exercise has become more complicated when taking into account the post-pandemic pricing rollover, not an easy headwind to overcome when the baton was passed to [Iggy] Domagalski.”