Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse sees “more risks” for Canada’s technology sector heading into 2026 than a year ago, believing “uncertainty around AI’s potential disruption ... won’t abate until there’s short-term proof one way or the other around the pace of potential disruptions.
“We think the opportunities at the time of writing will continue to be narrow and likely come from firm market leaders and inflection candidates — the latter being names with inflecting revenue growth and operating leverage, or earlier-cycle sensitivity to IT spending recoveries," he added.
In a research report released Tuesday titled Narrow Performance to Continue, Mr. Tse emphasized “the bid for profitability, visibility and capital discipline remains intact” and believes “companies demonstrating consistent reinvestment discipline, recurring revenue durability, and organic growth plus acquisitive growth ‘optionality’ should continue to command premium valuations.”
He noted valuations for Canadian companies remain below U.S. peers, which he thinks offers a “relative opportunity” for investors, believing “continued innovation, disciplined cost structures and strategic M&A could underpin performance, even as macro uncertainty persists.”
“With respect to our coverage universe, while M&A wasn’t as active as in previous years with the only takeout being Telus Digital, there was activity around ‘restructurings’ and ‘strategic pivots’ across select names (e.g., Altus, Lightspeed and OpenText),” he said.
“Looking to 2026, our core recommendations continue to lean towards our larger coverage names that present a balance of growth, profitability/operating leverage, and strong balance sheets – in names like CGI, Kinaxis, OpenText and Shopify. On the mid-small cap side, we see opportunities in “special situations” like Kraken, VitalHub and Zedcor."
Mr. Tse revealed his top picks for 2026, which are:
* Shopify Inc. (SHOP-N, SHOP-T) with an “outperform” rating and US$200 target. The average target on the Street is US$180.52.
Analyst: “Operating scale continues to compound with GMV. We’re looking for FY26 GMV [gross merchandise] growth of 28 per cent year-over-year. That’s supported by recent GMV growth of 32 per cent year-over-year to $92-billion in Q3’25, with International GMV up 41 per cent year-over-year. The above should amplify merchant solutions with the big driver still being Payments, which reached 65 per cent of GMV in Q3’25. More broadly, overall take rate ticked higher to 2.33 per cent. This helps support our FY26 revenue growth forecast of 24 per cent year-over-year (vs. 29 per cent in FY25E). With respect to FQ4’25 as a set up to next year, holiday read-through: BFCM [Black Friday Cyber Monday] 2025 set records at $14.6-billion GMV (up 27 per cent year-over-year; up 24 per cent in CC).”
* Kinaxis Inc. (KXS-T) with an “outperform” rating and $240 target. Average: $229.50.
Analyst: “Q3’25 delivered record SaaS growth (up 17 per cent year-ovr-year) and ARR acceleration (up 17 per cent year-over-year vs. up 11.8 per cent exiting FY24), prompting a guidance increase to 15–17 per cent (from 13–15 per cent) SaaS growth for FY25. STL conversions to SaaS and strong bookings (second highest ever after Q4’24) setting up recurring revenue visibility and higher quality earnings into FY26. That STL shift to SaaS is positive in that it reflects growing demand for an AI-infused product set like Maestro agents. Further, expansion orders of new ARR in the quarter was largely driven by demand for new applications, reflecting support for the Company’s product investments. In our view, Kinaxis has been executing on product cycle; a key reason behind its record bookings and strong win rates. Looking ahead, we’re expecting FY26 SaaS growth to remain mid-teens with ARR momentum supported by expansion orders and new application adoption."
* Open Text Corp. (OTEX-Q, OTEX-T) with an “outperform” rating and US$45 target. Average: US$39.40.
Analyst: “Corporate actions, including asset divestitures, a pending change in CEO leadership and Board turnover, should be key catalysts toward a (discounted) valuation re-rating. We believe the Company is on track to have a new CEO announced by year-end or shortly thereafter. On asset divestitures, Management has framed this as a “shrink to grow” transition: pruning lower-growth, capital-intensive assets while leaning into offerings that sit at the centre of enterprise AI workflows. The Company has reaffirmed its plan to divest non-core assets at a pace of one per quarter - that confidence seems to stem from solid demand from potential buyers with added confidence around execution of those divestitures following the Company’s 2024 AMC divestiture learnings."
* VitalHub Corp. (VHI-T) with an “outperform” rating and $16 target. Average: $14.33.
Analyst: “As expected, Q3’25 margins stepped back following the Novari acquisition, with Adj. EBITDA margin at 22.5 per cent, down 390 basis points quarter-over-quarter. We view this as the trough and forecast margins to walk up to 25.7 per cent by Q3’26, normalizing in the 26-28-per-cent range thereafter. We note that VitalHub’s underlying (organic) business continues help drive this margin expansion, delivering 14.9-per-cent organic growth in FQ3 which was the highest rate since FQ2’24. We expect organic growth to hold in the low teens, with potential upside over time (e.g., Novari and Zesty contributions in 2026). Although 2026 is an integration-heavy year, VitalHub’s strong balance sheet ($124-million cash, no debt) and consistent FCF generation ($31-million projected for FY26) positions the Company well for additional M&A.”
* Zedcor Inc. (ZDC-X) with an “outperform” rating and $7.50 target. Average: $7.38.
Analyst: “Zedcor continues to scale its fleet and win share, especially across the U.S. market where its fleet has nearly tripled since the start of 2025 (1,053 towers now vs. 367 to begin the year). The above U.S. momentum should drive continued growth where we expect FY26 revenue and EBITDA to grow 90 per cent and 94 per cent, respectively.”
National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine has “some optimism” for Canadian telecommunications companies entering 2026 after “dismal sector performances in 2023 and 2024 triggered by a resetting of the competitive landscape” brought on by Rogers Communications Inc.’s (RCI.B-T) acquisition of Shaw and Quebecor Inc.’s (QBR.B-T) deal for Freedom.
“While Quebecor did prove to be the outright winner with its stock up 65 per cent, other stocks are up from their lows of 2025 and, except Telus, within 2 per cent of being positive for the year, with a greater than 50-per-cent jump in Rogers from its early April low and BCE 11 per cent from its end of May low after finally cutting its dividend and resetting a narrative that had become stale,” he said. “Cogeco, for its part faces challenges on both sides of the border, but continues to work through its multi-year transformation program to improve go-to-market strategies and extract efficiencies.”
“We downgraded Telus at the end of 2024 and upgraded it near the end of 2025 as its inflated premium telecom valuation to Bell and Rogers more fully dissipated in the fall amid rising concerns about its ongoing dividend growth policy which was prudently announced on Dec. 3 as being paused exiting 2025. After multiple target increases, we downgraded Quebecor on Nov. 25 and await a better buying opportunity, as we continue to like the company’s wireless execution, greater discipline in cable, control over costs, and leverage position.”
Mr. Shine’s pecking order entering the new year is:
- Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) with an “outperform” rating and a $60 target. The average is $57.28.
- Telus Corp. (T-T) with an “outperform” rating with a $21.50 target. Average: $20.78.
- BCE Inc. (BCE-T) with an “outperform” rating with a $38 target. Average: $36.06.
- Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T) with a “sector perform” rating with a $54 target. Average: $52.
- Cogeco Communications Inc. (CCA-T) with a “sector perform” rating with a $66 target. Average: $88.77.
“Quebecor is a wildcard which could jump a spot or two higher,” he added. “Telus offers a dividend yield of 9.5 per cent, well above peers, and we don’t foresee a dividend cut. Quebecor and Cogeco will keep growing dividends, and we expect buyback activity to resume at Cogeco while continuing at Quebecor. Telus announced an NCIB on Dec. 15.”
Pointing to “the still gradual nature of the recovery in industry revenues,” RBC Dominion Securities analyst Drew McReynolds thinks investors in Canada’s telecom sector “must be realistic on the size of the prize in 2026.”
“In our 2025 outlook ‘Lost in Transition’, we expected 2024 revenue headwinds (competition, maturity, substitution, macro) to persist through 2025 making any meaningful Canadian telecom comeback more of a 2026 story,” he said. “While a new competitive equilibrium post the Rogers-Shaw-Quebecor transactions leaves us more constructive on the sector, until new value propositions emerge and scale to create meaningful new revenue streams, we expect industry revenue growth to remain modest.
“Our focus is now understanding the size of the prize for investors in 2026, which in a gradual recovery we would characterize as a slight year-over-year step-up in industry revenue growth (from an estimated 1 per cent in 2025 to 2 per cent in 2026), modest consolidated EBITDA margin expansion, easing underlying capex intensity levels (for most operators) and company-specific re-rating potential. We continue to view valuations as reasonable with the Big 3 trading in a FTM [forward 12-month] EV/EBITDA range of 6.4-7.3 times (versus a cyclical peak of 8.5-10.0 times in April 2022 and recent cyclical low of 5.8-7.8 times in April 2025) with the average multiple for the group up a modest 0.1 times year-to-date to 6.6 times.”
Mr. McReynolds thinks investors are now looking “at another transition-like year fundamentally in 2026 given the still low growth environment, stable interest rates and slow but steady progress towards 2027 leverage targets.” He also does not expect “meaningful earnings revisions for the group as the year progresses.”
“Consequently, we believe the relative winner(s) in 2026 will be the operator(s) that can exceed current investor expectations with respect to the controllables – execution on new revenue opportunities, execution on EBITDA and FCF margin expansion driven by additional operating and capital cost efficiencies, and execution on balance sheet/crystallization initiatives,“ he said. ”With an eye on a potentially better set-up for the group in 2027 given the prospects of renewed population growth in Canada alongside much healthier balance sheets, we believe up to a half point of EV/EBITDA multiple expansion versus current levels would be the real size of the prize for investors in 2026 with the path to such multiple expansion notably different for each operator (we outline each path in this report). Our conviction levels on re-rating catalysts versus current valuation levels do vary across the group with higher conviction on potential multiple expansion in 2026 for Rogers and BCE and lower conviction on potential multiple expansion for TELUS, Quebecor and Cogeco."
In his report, Mr. McReynolds also pointed to three conclusions from RBC’s proprietary survey on the sector: “(i) our 2025 survey results are remarkably similar to our 2024 survey results, which suggests to us Canadian telecom operators should be benefitting from a generally high degree of consumer stability and predictability across the Canadian telecom market; (ii) the new pricing equilibriums in both the wireless and Internet markets that were effectively established in 2025 should be sustainable given ongoing high levels of consumer satisfaction, non-price value drivers, and the rationale behind switching and bundling; and (iii) headline Canadian telecom prices remain attractive relative to the U.S., again dispelling the common-held notion that telecom customers in Canada pay significantly more for telecom services than telecom customers in the U.S.”
The analyst’s ratings and targets for stocks in the sector are:
* BCE Inc. (BCE-T) with an “outperform” rating with a $37target. The average is $36.06.
Analyst: “Following the October 2025 Investor Day, we upgraded the stock on a more attractive growth and risk profile. We continue to believe current levels represent an attractive and timely entry point reflecting what should be a gradual and sustained re-acceleration in underlying revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth beginning in 2026 driven by both differentiated and diversified growth tailwinds (Ziply, Enterprise, Bell Media) against the backdrop of an improving wireless pricing environment in Canada. At a FTM EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.8 times, we see the potential for modest multiple expansion through the medium term should management execute on its 2025-2028 outlook, which in our view, has contributed meaningfully to earnings visibility relative to Canadian peers. Our forecast is slightly more conservative relative to the 2026-2028 outlook, leaving the potential for upside earnings surprise.”
* Cogeco Communications Inc. (CCA-T) with a “sector perform” rating with a $76 target. Average: $88.77.
Analyst: “Despite competitively intense operating environments in Canada and the U.S., management continues to execute on multiple growth initiatives that include rural broadband expansion, North American wireless penetration, digitization, and Canadian Broadband and American Broadband integration. While we remain on the sidelines given the challenged revenue environment and ongoing elevated competitive intensity in the U.S., we continue to see value in the stock and look for better visibility on potential catalysts that could include an eventual uptick in revenue growth (driven by footprint expansion, price increases and/or wireless entry), the eventual realization of greater-than-expected synergies, and/or any potential easing in U.S. competition/concerns.”
* Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T) with a “sector perform” rating with a $49 target. Average: $52.
Analyst: “Despite strong year-to-date performance driven mainly by multiple expansion (from 6.1 times FTM EV/EBITDA at the beginning of the year to 7.3 times currently), we continue to see a still reasonable risk-adjusted return profile for the stock. We believe the driver of further upside in the shares from current levels will be primarily driven by NAV growth (bolstered by healthy FCF generation a relatively low payout ratio), albeit with the potential for further multiple expansion should the company deliver a sustainable step-up in EBITDA growth from 2-3 per cent currently to mid-single digits bolstered by the flow-through of renewed wireless and Internet ARPU growth.”
* Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) with an “outperform” rating and a $59 target. The average is $57.28.
Analyst: “ollowing stronger share price performance off the April lows, at a FTM EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.4 times, we view the shares as less oversold but still undervalued trading at a discount to large cap peers. While the low revenue growth environment works against meaningful sector-wide multiple expansion, we continue to see an equity reflation story for Rogers driven by FCF generation, outright debt repayment given the relatively low dividend payout ratio (less than 30 per cent of FCF), and further progress on balance sheet de-levering that now includes the completed $7-billion structured equity investment and a clear path for crystallizing a minority interest in the sports and media assets. We continue to see value in the stock particularly should: (i) the operational environment show further improvement; (ii) any meaningful minority interest transaction in Sportsco be supportive of management’s estimated more than $20-billion valuation; and/or (iii) capex intensity begins to decline following 2-3 years of significant investment post the Shaw acquisition.”
* Telus Corp. (T-T) with an “outperform” rating with a $24 target. Average: $20.78.
Analyst: “TELUS maintains a premium valuation relative to large cap peers suggesting a higher performance bar must be met in what remains a low revenue growth environment. While this premium valuation comes with a degree of valuation risk, we believe TELUS as the structural leader within the group can maintain a premium valuation provided that certain boxes continue to be ticked through 2025–2027, including: (i) sustaining 3-4 per cent or higher adjusted EBITDA growth for TTech systematically realizing cost efficiencies; (ii) continuing to make progress towards management’s 10% consolidated capex intensity objective; (iii) delivering on its 2026-2028 FCF CAGR guidance of a minimum of 10 per cent; (iv) turning the discounted DRIP off by the end of 2027; (v) reducing leverage to 3 times by 2027 while pausing on major M&A; and (vi) ultimately instituting a recurring NCIB to absorb excess FCF given the structural decline in capex."
Seeing Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN-N, AQN-T) “putting wins on the board” with “top tier” growth, Scotia Capital analyst Robert Hope raised his rating for its shares to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“We view Algonquin as a turnaround story, and so far it has been delivering,” he said. “The appointment of Rod West as CEO has received positive feedback from investors. He is laser focused on creating a culture of utility operational excellence and cost discipline. News flow from the company over the last few quarters has been positive (2025-2027 guidance update, Q3/25 earnings beat, regulatory progress) and we expect this to continue. In 2026, key items we are looking for include continued EPS growth as new customer rates enter service and costs are contained.
“We expect execution of the plan will increase investor confidence in the story. Our forecasts imply 2025E-2028E EPS CAGR of 14 per cent, which would be more than double its Canadian peers (though this is after three years of EPS declines). We also note that estimate revisions have been positive for Algonquin in 2025, which we view favourably. Given the strong EPS outlook, we assume that dividend growth resumes in 2028 with an 8-per-cent increase. This keeps Algonquin’s dividend payout at 60 per cent, which is at the lower end of its 60-70 per cent targeted range.”
After rolling forward his valuation, Mr. Hope raised his target to US$7 from US$6.50. The average is US$6.54.
“If the market is viewing Algonquin as a ‘show me’ story, we have to acknowledge that they delivered in 2025,” he explained. “This year the shares outperformed the peer group on the back of a stronger-than-expected 2025-2027 outlook, progress on key regulatory filings, and improving utility returns. Looking out to 2026, we expect the company will maintain its momentum by reducing costs and gaining approval of new customer rates that should continue to improve utility returns. We see Algonquin as having the strongest EPS growth (14-per-cent 2025-2028 CAGR) outlook in our utility coverage universe driven by improving returns as well as a 6-per-cent rate base CAGR, that should accelerate into 2030. At a 12.6 times 2028E P/E, the company trades at a sizable discount to its Canadian peers including Emera at 16.4 times, Fortis at 17.2 times, and Hydro One at 22.1 times.”
In a concurrent report previewing 2026 for North American utility and power companies, Mr. Hope and colleague Andrew Weisel made a series of target changes, including:
- Atco Ltd. (ACO.X-T, “sector perform”) to $61 from $56. The average is $58.83.
- AltaGas Ltd. (ALA-T, “sector outperform”) to $50 from $48. Average: $47.33.
- Brookfield Renewable Partners LP (BEP-N/BEP.UN-T, “sector outperform”) to US$36 from US$35. Average: US$34.37.
- Boralex Inc. (BLX-T, “sector perform”) to $31 from $35. Average: $36.
- Canadian Utilities Ltd. (CU-T, “sector perform”) to $43 from $40. Average: $42.50.
- Emera Inc. (EMA-T, “sector outperform”) to $78 from $72. Average: $71.14.
- Fortis Inc. (FTS-T, “sector perform”) to $79 from $74. Average: $72.87.
- Hydro One Ltd. (H-T, “sector perform”) to $53 from $51. Average: $53.40.
“While 2025 was an extremely strong year for the utilities and power sector, we expect another year of solid returns in 2026, particularly for power stocks and U.S. utilities with meaningful data center exposure. they said. ”While this is admittedly not the boldest of calls, we also emphasize that, though outperformance vs. a bullish, risk-on market may be unlikely, utilities offer a unique defensiveness that provides a hedge against a potential downturn that other AI-focused sectors lack. We are bullish in absolute terms on power names, while our optimism on regulated utilities is more of a relative call, with a preference for U.S. stocks over Canadian peers given superior growth prospects thanks to better exposure to large load customers and thus more EPS upside potential. We’re relatively most cautious on stocks of renewable developers. We roll forward our valuations to 2028 and increase our TPs by 6 per cent, and now see total returns of 25 per cent. Our U.S. top picks, in order, are CEG-US, VST-US, WEC-US, ETR-US, CMS-US, CNP-US, BKH-US, NEE-US, NRG-US,DUK-US, and FE-US; ES-US remains our least favorite. In our Canadian coverage our top picks in order are AQN-US, ALA-US, and CPX-CA."
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Sam Crittenden thinks Major Drilling Group International Inc. (MDI-T) is “an attractive way to express a constructive stance on gold and copper without taking on mine-level execution risk.”
In a client report released Tuesday, he said Moncton-based company is seeing revenues trending higher alongside record metals prices, predicting “a further step higher in 2026 as money raised this year flows into drilling.”
“Global budgets for gold and copper exploration have stabilized and are beginning to rise as producers look to rebuild depleted reserves given the current commodities pricing environment,” said Mr. Crittenden. “In our view, operators will likely prioritize brownfield assets and resource expansion around existing assets, which should be constructive for rig and drilling equipment demand. Additionally, each incremental dollar should result in a meaningful uplift to margins as the fixed costs are relatively stable, and incremental meters drilled yield a higher profit margin.
“We view Major Drilling as well-positioned to benefit from this structural upcycle given the company’s global footprint, industry-leading fleet, and specialized drilling capabilities which supports MDI’s competitive positioning as new mineral deposits become increasingly more geographically complex.”
Touting an “attractive valuation with compelling risk/reward skew,” he raised his target for its shares to $17 from $14, reiterating an “outperform” rating. The average is $15.
“MDI is currently trading at 6.3 times NTM EBITDA, near the lower end of the historical range of 4-16 times,” he said. “In our downside scenario, where EBITDA weakens ($71-million vs. our base case of $172-million) and exploration spending declines year-over-year to 2023 levels implying a significantly weaker commodity price backdrop and lack of financing, MDI would be trading at 15.2 times F2026E estimated EBITDA. However, in our upside case, where margins improve to 27 per cent and exploration spending increases to prior cycle levels, MDI would be trading at 4.3 times F2026E EBITDA.
“Growing net cash position supported by strong performance: MDI generated $101-million of EBITDA in FY2025 and we forecast EBITDA of $129-million in F2026. We continue to see capital allocation focused on rig additions and fleet modernization. However, with a strong balance sheet ($65-million cash, $28-million debt), we could see greater shareholder returns in the form of buybacks, especially given an NCIB announcement this October, which allows MDI to purchase up to 5 per cent of its shares over the year.”
Analysts at Desjardins Securities say it is “challenging to develop a compelling thesis that supports anything beyond another year of middling results” for Canadian real estate equities in 2026 following a “sluggish” 2025, which has brought underperformance versus the TSX for a fourth consecutive year.
“Consequently, we are once again calling for total returns in the range of 5–10 per cent,“ they said. ”In our view, an increase in fund flows into the REIT sector is key to pushing total returns beyond the 10-per-cent range. While valuations remain attractive, particularly in comparison with the broader TSX, a lacklustre economic outlook, limited M&A prospects and investors preferring high momentum ideas such as AI and precious metals leads us to conclude that it will be difficult for REITs to attract sufficient levels of new capital necessary to generate outsized gains in the coming year. That said, we still see attractive asset class and name-specific opportunities that should yield superior returns."
Analysts Kyle Stanley, Lorne Kalmar and Alexander Leon continue to see an increase in fund flows into REITs as “the key catalyst for a broader sector re-rate” moving forward. However, they expect many of the trends observed in 2025 to carry over to 2026, including: “(1) a relatively modest economic outlook; (2) elevated unemployment; (3) muted population growth; (4) headline risk surrounding the USMCA review; and (5) relative stability at the long end of the yield curve.”
“For these reasons, we do not see many fundamental catalysts to drive a material uptick in fund flows to the sector,” they said. “However, unlike in prior years, the valuation discount between the REIT sector and the broader TSX has reached a historically wide level. Should the AI trade fizzle out, commodity prices retreat or investors choose to rotate out of sectors with frothy valuations—or some combination of the three—we believe REITs represent an attractive value proposition with defensive attributes. Despite our more tempered sector outlook, we continue to see opportunities for outsized returns within the space. We anticipate that names with a combination of robust top-line growth, accelerating bottom-line growth and elevated NAVPU [net asset value per unit] growth will outperform in the year ahead. We also believe that we could see some cap rate compression in seniors housing, industrial and retail in 2026.
“Our sector pecking order: (1) seniors housing; (2) industrial; (3) retail; (4) self storage; (5) multifamily; and (6) office.”
The analysts pointed to four “best ideas” for the year ahead. They are:
* Sienna Senior Living Inc. (SIA-T) with a “buy” rating and $24 target. The average is $22.38.
“With sector-leading forecast AFFOPS growth and accelerating earnings growth in 2026 vs 2025, we expect the stock to continue to re-rate higher,” they said.
* Flagship Communities Real Estate Investment Trust (MHC.U-T) with a “buy” rating and US$24 target. Average: US$23.05.
“Relatively stable low-teen year-over-year FFOPU growth and continued outperformance vs its U.S. peers should enable it to further close the valuation gap,” they said.
* Granite Real Estate Investment Trust (GRT.UN-T) with a “buy” rating and $95 target. Average: $88.75.
“Its blue chip U.S. exposure offers a more defensive and accelerating 8-per-cent FFOPU growth profile within the industrial sector, where our conviction has continued to improve.
* Nexus Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (NXR.UN-T) with a “buy” rating and $9 target. Average: $8.25.
“We believe that investors with a higher risk tolerance should take advantage of 2026 as the inflection year for growth,” they said.
Seeing “strong positioning” for Gatekeeper Systems Inc. (GSI-X) in “a fast-growing market,” Raymond James analyst Sean Jack initiated coverage of the B.C.-based mobile video surveillance provider with an “outperform” rating.
“Our analysis suggests the global mobile video surveillance market will reach $4.5 billion by 2030, reflecting a 12-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate],” he said. “With its robust software platform, digital-first approach, and deepening customer relationships, we believe GSI is positioned to capture out sized share and grow faster than its mobile surveillance peers for years to come.”
“Legislation pushing adoption on both fronts. Driven by rising concerns over liability, crime, and a growing demand for transparency, operators in transit and K-12 are facing a surge in laws mandating surveillance and safety technology. Couple with GSI’s unique product and software advantages, we see GSI as superbly positioned to capture significant share in the market.”
Also touting the “strong validation” brought by its marquee clients and seeing “multiple paths to deeper market penetration,” Mr. Jack, currently the lone analyst covering Gatekeeper, set a target of $3 per share.
“High-profile clients including major US school districts, the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transit Authority (Philadelphia), Toronto Transit Commission, and New York’s Metropolitan Transit Authority are already embracing GSI’s integration benefits to meet growing surveillance needs,” he said. “With these high-profile wins secured, we believe it’s only a matter of time before other large-scale customers follow suit.”
“Between strategic M&A, integration partnerships, or organic growth with new and existing customers, GSI has multiple levers to build on its recent contract momentum. With a clean balance sheet and a growing industry reputation, we see significant optionality ahead as the company accelerates penetration across its core markets.”
In other analyst actions:
* In response to its deal to be turned private by Kingswood Capital and Forager Capital in an acquisition worth US$260-million, Stifel’s Justin Keywood moved Quipt Home Medical Corp. (QIPT-T) to “sell” from “buy” with a $5.10 target, down from $6.70. The average is $8.40.
“The total consideration implies approximately 4.5 times 2025 adj. EBITDA and 15 times FCF multiples, which we view as fair, given the business is sub-scale with a current DOJ billing investigation, as certain other industry headwinds persist. Forager holds 9.7 per cent of the Company and has engaged management and the board three times since January 2025, soliciting offers ranging from US$3.10-US$3.90/sh. Our target price adjusts to the take-out offer with a SELL rating. Although, a superior bid could emerge with only a US$250k break-fee, we believe the long duration M&A process has been robust as other undervalued healthcare opportunities exist within our coverage and better use of capital,” said Mr. Keywood.
* Raymond James’ Michael Glen moved Colabor Group Inc. (GCL-T) to “under review” from “market perform” and removed his target (previously 40 cents versus the 45-cent average)
“[Monday] morning, Colabor provided an update regarding its previously announced forbearance agreement. As we assess the implications of the press release and considerations of the company as a going concern, we are moving our rating and target price to Under Review,” said Mr. Glen.
“As part of its continuing finance, Colabor had until December 15, 2025, to secure non-binding letters of intent for refinancing its credit facilities and raising at least $15 mln in equity. Colabor announced, this morning, it has been unable to obtain satisfactory refinancing proposals and does not expect to do so. With that, Colabor is now negotiating with its main lenders and Investissement Québec for further extensions of their forbearance agreements, which currently last until January 30, 2026, and for possible additional short-term liquidity. Without viable strategic alternatives, Colabor’s operations may be seriously affected, and it may seek creditor protection.”
* With its announcement of its latest Charlie Lake well results, a strategic Charlie Lake acquisition and its 2026 preliminary budget guidance, Acumen Capital’s Trevor Reynolds bumped his Bonterra Energy Corp. (BNE-T) target to $6.25 from $5.75 with a “buy” rating, while ATB Capital Markets’ Amir Arif raised his target to $5.50 from $5 with an “outperform” rating.. The average is $4.75.
* Jefferies’ Kevin Garrigan initiated coverage of D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS-N), which relocated to its headquarters to California from Burnaby, B.C., with a “buy” rating and US$45 target. The average is US$40.
* In response to its 2026 budget, TD Cowen’s Menno Hulshof cut his Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T) target by $1 to $106 with a “buy” rating, while Raymond James’ Michael Barth reduced his target to $110 from $111 with an “underperform” rating. The average is $109.30.
“2026 capex in line, production/downstream slightly below recent consensus,” Mr. Hulshof said. “Kearl 2026 TAR ends 2-yr cycle with next TAR scheduled for 2029 (now 4-yr cycle). Major TARs at Strathcona/Sarnia weigh on 2026E downstream utilization (guiding 24mbbl/d impact). We 1) est. IMO requires 100-per-cent refinery utilization in Q4/25 to hit low-end of 2025 guidance, and 2) expect it to complete its 5-per-cent NCIB this week.”
“IMO remains a clean story on all fronts—a best-in-class balance sheet, fiscal discipline and a very strong commitment to returning the majority of FCF (buybacks plus ratable dividend hikes). It is also a stand-out name from an execution perspective with Kearl, Cold Lake (Grand Rapids Phase 1) and downstream performing well. Cost structure improvements (Kearl and Cold Lake opex, for example) could continue to drive its WTI breakeven lower (currently less than US$35/bbl). Finally, it arguably remains the go-to name for investors looking to play defence amid numerous macro uncertainties, backstopped by aggressive share buybacks. However, on our estimates, its NCIB likely gets completed this week and we do not model a fourth SIB. It has materially outperformed its peers on a trailing-12-month basis and on our estimates, it appears fully valued.“
* Scotia’s Eric Winmill initiated coverage of Meridian Mining plc (MNO-T) with a “sector outperform” rating and $2.50 target. The average is $2.
“The company’s flagship project, Cabaçal, is a pre-feasibility-stage gold and copper project in Brazil,” he said. “In our view, Cabaçal represents a highly compelling gold/copper project with robust economics. A recently released pre-feasibility study (PFS) at Cabaçal outlined an 11-year mine life producing 141 koz gold-equivalent (AuEq) ounces per year (or 178 koz AuEq per year in the first five years), with an after-tax NPV5% of $984 million based on gold at $2,119/oz and copper at $4.16/lb.
“Meridian has identified several potential upside opportunities at Cabaçal that could further improve project economics. These include potential optimization of the current flowsheet at Cabaçal, potential to grow resources along strike and at depth at Cabaçal, and ongoing exploration at the nearby Santa Helena zone (exploration target range: 3.2 Mt to 7.3 Mt containing 306 koz Au Eq to 763 koz Au Eq, with the deposit remaining open). Exploration and assessment work is currently ongoing to evaluate these expansion opportunities, and we expect further updates through the upcoming quarters.”
* After Monday’s announcement of its 2026 EBITDA and capital guidance, fully reassigned capacity at the Cedar LNG facility and sanctioning of the Fox Creek to Namao expansion to its Peace pipeline, TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil cut his Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PPL-T) target to $60 from $65 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: CIBC’s Robert Catellier to $61 from $62 with an “outperformer” rating, BMO’s Ben Pham to $58 from $59 with an “outperform” rating and Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $67 from $66 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $57.43.
“Based on our revised estimates (EBITDA decreases 3 per cent, CapEx increases 23 per cent), Pembina now trades modestly above its 10-year mean valuation. While we believe that a premium to its historical valuation is warranted given its increasingly clear visibility to long-term growth, a strong long-term track record and a strict adherence to its financial guardrails, our valuation-based positive thesis is somewhat diminished. That said, value has become increasingly difficult to find in this sector and Pembina continues to have among the largest total return to targets in our coverage universe. With this update, we are maintaining our BUY rating, but reducing our price target,” said Mr. MacNeil.