Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
RBC Dominion Securities analysts Sabahat Khan and Arthur Nagorny expect a “broadly improved” outlook for industrial companies this year versus 2025, pointing to “improving macro, supportive dynamics across key economic sectors, and potentially easing interest rates, all culminating in stronger GDP growth (we expect the short-term U.S. Federal government disruptions seen in 2025 to be relatively less impactful in 2026, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the broader U.S. economy).”
In a client report titled Ample opportunities amid dynamic backdrop, the analysts emphasized their industry growth algorithm, which includes price-driven growth with margin expansion and M&A, is likely to continue to be evident in 2026.
“We expect pricing across the Waste Majors to remain elevated in 2026 (albeit lower than in previous years) given that waste-related inflation has been tracking above headline CPI (which has been moderating),” they said. “We also expect continued margin expansion, driven by pricing/moderating cost inflation and various internal initiatives (e.g., moderating turnover, technology investments, RNG facilities coming online). As it relates to sustainability investments, we expect RNG + recycling to remain a core focus, with increasing EBITDA contribution from these investments (though we expect the commodity price headwinds to continue into 2026). Lastly, we expect the trend of consolidation to continue in the industry.”
The analysts added: “For our Waste coverage, we expect a supportive pricing environment, continued margin progress, and M&A to drive another year of solid performance (despite persistent commodity price headwinds). For Engineering & Construction firms, we expect sustained infrastructure demand across most major markets, with large spending programs continuing to roll out globally. For the Machinery names, we believe improving construction spending given less macro uncertainty (including supportive commodity prices) and the continued growth of investment in critical infrastructure and data centres globally to support the group in 2026.”
In the report, the analysts updated their near-term estimates while introducing their 2027 assumptions. That led to a series of target price revisions to stocks in their coverage universe. They include:
* AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ-T, “sector perform” to $29 from $30. The average target on the Street is $32.40.
Mr. Khan: “As part of its strategic review, AutoCanada recently engaged a consulting firm to assist with operational issues and re-asses all noncore/underperforming assets. Most recently, the company announced in July 2025 that it is selling 13 of its U.S. dealerships for $83-million, which we view positively given the company’s history of operations in the region (the company’s total 18 U.S. dealerships generated a $24-million Adj. EBITDA loss in 2024 excluding a $28-million FTC settlement). Looking ahead, management expects to receive $115-130-million in net proceeds for its remaining U.S. dealerships.”
* AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T, “outperform”) to $123 from $125. The average target on the Street is $119.43.
Mr. Khan: “At its 2024 Investor Day, AtkinsRéalis released the following financial targets: 1) 2025-2027 Engineering Services Regions organic revenue CAGR [compound annual growth rate] of more than 8 per cent and a segment Adjusted EBITDA margin (as a percentage of segment Net Revenue) of 17-18 per cent (vs. 15.9 per cent in 2024); and 2) 2027 Nuclear revenue of $2.2-2.5-billion (which was revised from $1.8-2.0-billion previously due to strong underlying performance) and a segment Adjusted EBIT margin (as a percentage of segment revenue) of 12-14 per cent (vs. 12.4 per cent in 2024). Additionally, the company will aim to convert Adjusted Net Income to Free Cash Flow at a rate of 80-90 per cent and plans to maintain leverage of 1.0-2.0 times (Net Recourse + Limited Recourse Debt/Adjusted EBITDA) on an annual basis.”
“In addition to the Nuclear growth trajectory highlighted above, recent geopolitical events and the backdrop of major sustainability commitments by national governments have accelerated demand for the green energy transition and have changed the tone around nuclear, particularly in the U.K. (e.g., the U.K. government recently published plans to increase nuclear generation approximately 4 times to 24GW by 2050; AtkinsRéalis was also recently appointed to 15-year nuclear decommissioning and waste framework with Sellafield) and Romania (where an AtkinsRéalis-led consortium was recently awarded a $750MM life extension mandate). Given Atkins’s strong positioning in the U.K. market and its top-tier nuclear capabilities, we see this as a potential catalyst. A number of opportunities are also available in Ontario over the near- to medium-term, where the company already announced a number of wins in 2025.”
* RB Global Inc. (RBA-N/RBA-T, “outperform”) . The average is $126.33.
Mr. Khan: “Overall, we believe the ‘legacy’ RB Global platform (i.e., excluding IAA; recall that this business generates 75-80 per cent of its GTV [gross transaction value] from the Construction and Transportation end-markets) is poised for a rebound as used heavy equipment prices are showing signs of stabilization, while the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ could help spur additional infrastructure investment/replacement of used heavy equipment (via the bonus depreciation incentive), which we would expect to benefit RB Global, particularly as some customers have been noted as taking a ‘wait and see’ approach to-date given some of the broader macro uncertainties (i.e., tariffs, though we note that the operating backdrop is marginally more stable now).”
In response to Monday’s announcement of its plan to private in a deal valued at $2.3-billion, including debt, Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Rothschild downgraded Minto Apartment REIT (MI-UN-T) to “hold” from “buy” previously, believing the move “surfaces value at difficult time for Canadian apartment REITs.”
“We view this transaction positively as the REIT’s units traded at an abnormally large discount to NAV for an extended period of time, and with no apparent near-term catalyst and soft rental apartment fundamentals across Canada, it was difficult to see the unit price recovering meaningfully any time soon,” he added.
Mr. Rothschild thinks a higher bid is “extremely unlikely as the Minto Group controls the REIT through its 43% ownership and is unlikely to be supportive of a competing bid.”
“Further, with rental apartment fundamentals likely to remain soft through 2026, and the bid relatively close to our NAV estimate (actually is in-line with our NAV when considering the break-up fee), we do not believe there would be material interest from other groups,” he added. “The termination fee payable by the REIT to Crestpoint and Minto Group is $42.1 million if the agreement is terminated due to the Board of Trustees withdrawing support. If Minto Group and Crestpoint terminate the transaction, a fee of $47.7 million is payable to the REIT. Implications for the apartment sector.”
The analyst increased his target for Minto units to $18 to reflect the offer from $15.50 The average is $17.17.
“Although we expect rental apartment fundamentals to remain under pressure in 2026 due to significant new supply and a lack of population growth, we believe the transaction provides evidence of the long-term value that private capital sees in the Canadian apartment market,” he added.
Elsewhere, CIBC World Markets’ Dean Wilkinson moved Minto to “neutral” from “outperformer” with a $18 target, rising from $17.
“Kicking off 2026, we have the not totally unexpected arrival of Minto Apartment REIT’s privatization—an outcome the market perhaps long anticipated and one that marks a notable transaction in the Canadian multifamily space,” he said.
“Given the related-party nature of the transaction and the absence of a go-shop provision, we do not expect a competing bid to emerge, nor do we see a scenario where the offer is bumped above the $18.00 price.”
Analysts making target revisions include:
* Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to $18 from $14.25 with a “market perform” rating.
“Similar to the pending takeover of InterRent REIT announced last year, we expect that the current proposed cash takeover offer of $18.00/unit could be approved by unitholders, due to: 1) Minto’s deep NAV/unit discount valuation that persisted as a going concern over the last several months; and 2) potential near-term operating headwinds that still exist in the REIT’s larger urban Canadian rental markets. Given the REIT’s higher cost of capital as a public entity, we view the REIT’s go-private transaction as a logical move to better position Minto to pursue its various growth prospects,” said Mr. Sturges.
* National Bank’s Matt Kornack to $18 from $15 with a “sector perform” rating.
“While this transaction isn’t overly surprising, as management had insinuated on a number of occasions that patience wasn’t infinite for the principal shareholder, there was uncertainty around the conviction and duration of that patience,” said Mr. Kornack. “Pricing/valuation also largely jive with the precedent that was set with the GIC/Insider bid for InterRent (so we don’t foresee much push back from shareholders, although again there is a hefty discount to IFRS value). We do think this should awaken some support for the remaining apartment names, as this segment has now been streamlined and still trades at a 20-25-per-cent discount to our NAV (recent transaction have been at a premium of 5-plus-per cent to our NAVs). With Minto and InterRent on their way out, the remaining names offer distinct geographic focuses (CAR- ON/broad national platform, BEI - W. Canada, KMP - Central and E. Canada).”
* Scotia’s Mario Saric to $18 from $14.75 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Overall, (1) We think the offer is fair ($18.00 = our Current NAVPU; 9-10 per cent below Consensus and our Forward NAV), (2) We don’t expect a superior bid given (1) above and Minto Group 43-per-cent interest, (3) We believe the deal will be approved (need majority of the minority), (4) Two may make a trend (IIP + MI), which may support a quicker CAD Apartment REIT sentiment recovery (i.e., before 6 months) like it did post IIP...only for two weeks (outperformed sector by 5 per cent), and (5) We see recovering private deal flow as a REIT catalyst given its high correlation with valuation,” said Mr. Saric. “KMP is our top Apartment pick (SO rating), with the MI news possibly sparking speculation whether it too may take a spin (also now the cheapest CAD Apartment REIT we cover).”
National Bank Financial analyst Dan Payne sees higher embedded growth and value creation in Spartan Delta Corp.’s (SDE-T) development in the West Shale Basin Duvernay following Monday’s announcement of its 2026 spending plan.
“One of the most impactful programs in the industry continues to press forward with strength, as its Duvernay assets accelerate in support of a magnifying value opportunity; SDE is poised for an 18-per-cent return profile (vs. peers 13 per cent) on leverage of 0. times (vs. peers 0.6 times), while trading at a 4.4 times 2026 estimated EV/DACF [enterprise value to debt-adjusted cash flow] (vs. peers 4.7 times).”
On Monday, the Calgary-based company announced an annual capital program of $410-$470-million, delivering annualized production of 50,000 to 52,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (44 per cent liquids), a 28-per-cent increase in production and an 89-per-cent increase in crude oil and condensate production from midpoint 2025 guidance.
Mr. Payne called the budget “extremely high-impact through its Duvernay exposures” and saw its work in the region remaining “the core highlight of the plan, with $350-million to be deployed there through the year to drill 24 wells (up 60-70 per cent year-over-year) and 2 times production year-over-year.”
“Importantly, efficiencies continue to trend positively within the context of its program, with capital efficiencies improving by a factor of 30-40 per cent with support of tailored D&C and rate performance,” he added.
“Overall, it now sees prospective growth towards 50 mboe/d through 2030 (2 times from prior expectation) within the context of 1.0 times D/CF – the value proposition here is enormous, with that quantum of production potentially holding value of approximately $10-15 per share (unrisked based on a 4 times liquids peer average multiple at a normalized price-deck)."
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Spartan Delta shares, he raised his target to $9 from $7.50. The average is $8.
Elsewhere, other analysts making revisions include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch to $8.50 from $8, keeping a “hold” recommendation.
“While increased liquids production is impressive, we expect oil price headwinds to weigh on near-term cash flow generation, suggesting that SDE may tap the equity market or seek alternative financing sources to retain balance sheet strength,” he said.
* TD Cowen’s Aaron Bilkoski to $9.50 from $7.50 with a “buy” rating.
“Although Spartan experienced material share price gains in 2025, the value of the Duvernay has materially improved and there is significant upside remaining,” said Mr. Bilkoski.
* Ventum Financial’s Adam Gill to $9 from $7 with a “buy” rating.
“While the program is more aggressive than we expected, we are impressed by the strong growth and note that even with capital outpacing funds flow, leverage remains in check at 1.1 tines 2026 D/CF (strip prices),” said Mr. Gill.
“We see the Company driving strong production-per-share growth of approximately 24.0 per cent year-over-year, well ahead of peers at 7.0 per cent on average under this program.”
Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li is predicting “another ‘beat and raise’” from Aritzia Inc. (ATZ-T) when the clothing retailer reveals its third-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results after the bell on Thursday.
“We expect robust revenue growth (31 per cent vs 20–24-per-cent guidance) supported by strong product assortment and inventory, enhanced marketing, outsized e-com growth and new stores,“ he said. ”The strong share price reflects expectations for another ‘beat and raise’, which we believe is achievable. This should boost confidence in ATZ’s ability to sustain attractive EPS growth (more than 30 per cent) in FY27," he said.
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Li said he is now projecting earnings per share of 91 cents, which exceeds the consensus forecast on the Street by 3 cents. He said his positive revision reflects “robust Bloomberg ALTD data (continuing in 4Q)” as well as his own observations.
" Sales strength reflects a strong product assortment, supported by optimized inventory and amplified by enhanced investments in marketing,“ he added. ”The mobile app launch in late October should contribute to the outsized e-commerce growth. We are forecasting 22-per-cent comp sales (29 per cent two-year stack). The balance of the revenue growth is driven by new store openings. Despite incremental pressures from tariffs and the elimination of the de minimis exemption, we are forecasting gross margin growth of 60 basis points year-over-year (in line with consensus and ahead of flat guidance), driven by strong sales leverage and IMU improvements. We expect the strong top-line growth to drive 30 bps SG&A leverage (vs management’s flat guidance) and more than offset growth investments. ATZ’s strong share price performance reflects expectations for another “beat and raise”.
“Given the strong 3Q results with momentum likely continuing in 4Q, we expect management to raise its FY26E guidance. We and consensus expect revenue of $3.4-billion (vs $3.30–3.35-billion guidance) and an EBITDA margin of 16.4 per cent (vs 15.5–16.5-per-cent guidance). We believe the guidance raise will increase investor confidence in ATZ’s ability to sustain attractive EPS growth (more than 30 per cent) in FY27."
Raising his revenue and earnings projections through fiscal 2027 and rolling forward his valuation to 2028, Mr. Li increased his target for Aritzia shares to $133 from $125 with a “buy” rating. The average is $124.
“We believe ATZ is a compelling investment, supported by attractive industry growth, market share gain opportunities through new store openings and store repositions (focused on the U.S.), and e-commerce growth; ATZ has largely completed its investments and has a solid foundation to capitalize on strong growth with a highly experienced management team,” he concluded.
TD Cowen analyst Aaron Bilkoski sees Kelt Exploration Ltd. (KEL-T) as a “now rare offering at compelling value.”
On Monday, the Calgary-based company announced its financial and operating guidance for 2026, setting a capital expenditure budget of $355-million. It is targeting annual production of 50-52,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a rise of 26 per cent from its 2025 forecast.
“The budget was in line with both TD Cowen/Street expectations,” said Mr. Bilkoski, who called the release “neutral” to Kelt’s investment thesis.
“No incremental operational update was provided. Nothing in this release changes our view on the company. Kelt is one of the last standing oil-weighted junior Montney producers. We see material upside based on recent industry M&A. Value could be unlocked through the sale of key assets, particularly Wembley.”
The analyst reaffirmed his “buy” rating and $9.50 target for Kelt shares. The average is now $9.87.
“Through 2025, Kelt struggled to get its behind-pipe production to market as third-party infrastructure delays acted as a material bottleneck. These challenges appear to be behind them. Looking forward, we anticipate near industry-leading oil-biased growth through 2026. Furthermore, the combination of production stability at greater Wembley could, in our view, see this asset monetized at a valuation notably higher than where Kelt currently trades. Furthermore, this would leave Kelt with a largely undeveloped B.C. natural gas property that could become strategically important as LNG-driven demand grows
In other analyst actions:
* Calling it “a compelling value story” and touting its “dominant share in a defensive category,” Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan initiated coverage of Richards Group Inc. (RIC-T), which was previously known as Richards Packaging Income Fund prior to a conversion from a trust in December, with a “buy” rating and $42 target.
“RIC is a business with a dominant share in North American rigid packaging distribution, affording it higher ROIC and EBITDA-to-FCF conversion versus publicly traded peers,” he said. “That said, RIC is in the midst of a transformation, substantially increasing its mix of revenue to higher-margin healthcare-related products (and medical device OEM revenues in particular) as opposed to Food & Beverage and Cosmetics.
“Additionally, the company’s recent conversion from an income fund to a corporation opens the door for share buybacks, which we believe would be substantially accretive on an EPS basis and somewhat neutral on a distributable cash flow basis, given the company’s earnings yield and dividend yield are both in excess of its after-tax cost of debt. Coupled with a clean balance sheet (approximately 1 times net debt/TTM [trailing 12-month] EBITDA) and an undemanding valuation (6.8x next year’s EBITDA, below packaging distributors at 8 times and healthcare distributors/OEMs at 11-13 times), we believe the shares screen well for small cap investors.”
* Seeing near-term capital expenditure increases weighing on shareholder returns, Evercore ISI’s Stephen Richardson downgraded Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ-T) to “in line” from “outperform” while maintaining a $50 target. The average on the Street is $54.76.
* Believing its valuation “looks full after re-rating prior two years,” Wolfe Research’s Shweta Khajuria lowered Shopify Inc. (SHOP-Q, SHOP-T) to “outperform” from “peer perform” and removed a US$185 target. The average is US$179.27.
* In a 2006 outlook for the U.S. specialty retail space, Barclays’ Adrienne Yih raised her target for Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS-N, GOOS-T) to US$12 from US$11 with an “equal weight” rating. The average is US$12.78.
“We are constructive on our sector in 2026 based on inventory discipline and macro tailwinds (lower rates, gas prices, OBBB). Stock selection is critical as demand uncertainty persists. Companies driving sales acceleration with pricing power should outperform as tariff headwinds subside in 2H26,” she said.