Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Canaccord Genuity analyst Aravinda Galappatthige thinks the Canadian telecom sector has “seemingly bounced off a trough, following two and a half challenging years,” however he warns “industry-level recovery could be very slow with stops and starts.”
That led him to continue to recommend investors make “tactical moves based on evident catalysts” in 2026.
“Our surveillance suggests that competitive intensity in wireless was noticeably lower in Q4/25 compared to last year, despite a few skirmishes, at times triggered by TELUS,” said Mr. Galappatthige. “Importantly, we did not see further aggression from Freedom, which we believe augurs well, at least for the near term.
“Signs of stabilization: While the sector has a fair distance to go in rebuilding its pre-2023 investment credentials, we do recognize a number of positive indicators, which, if sustained through the year, could be quite constructive for the space. Critically, it does appear that the period of consistent downward estimate revisions has come to an end. Pre Q3/25, we found ourselves revising down annual adj. EBITDA by at least 0.5 per cent-1 per cent quarterly, successively. As illustrated in this report, core telecom earnings expectations appear to be holding, including for F2026. Second, we continue to see increased emphasis around balance sheet de-levering with the incumbents providing multi-year targets and messaging quite deliberately on asset monetization plans. Third, as discussed above, notwithstanding some short-lived skirmishes, we are observing sustained resolve in terms of pulling back on promotional discounting and returning pricing at least close to 0-per-cent growth.”
In a research report released Tuesday before the bell, Mr. Galappatthige lowered his recommendation Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T) to a “hold” recommendation from “buy” previously in a “tactical” move in reaction to its recent “extended” period of share price appreciation.
“We have downgraded QBR.B to a HOLD, considering its exceptional run,” he said. “With that said, we see this as a tactical move and still consider QBR is core holding for Telecom investors given the longer-term upside as Freedom continues to gain ground in national wireless.”
His target for Quebecor shares is now $51.25, rising from $50. The average target on the Street is $51.80, according to LSEG data.
Mr. Galappatthige made one other target revision, cutting Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) to $55 from $57 with a “buy” rating. The average is $57.48.
Analyst: “We do expect sideways action in H1/26 due to some incremental pressure in cable and a much narrowed gap in wireless (in terms of service revenue growth versus peers). However, we are maintaining our BUY rating on account of our view that the SportsCo monetization would be centre stage yet again by H2/26, and we see additional upside as we approach a transaction.”
His other ratings and targets are:
* BCE Inc. (BCE-T) with a “hold” rating and $34.50 target. Average: $36.24.
Analyst: “With respect to BCE, while we are progressively constructive on the longer-term direction, in the near term, it is very much an execution play. Initiatives around Enterprise, Media, and wireless churn are likely to produce lumpy results at times, and we believe rebuilding the thesis could take a bit more time. Finally, we do not see major catalysts in the horizon, at least not in H1/26. We are thus watching on the sidelines, maintaining our HOLD rating. With that said, meaningful asset sales could be catalytic, but we see this as more likely in 2027.”
* Cogeco Communications Inc. (CCA-T) with a “buy” rating and $75 target. Average: $88.71.
Analyst: " We remain bullish on Cogeco, as we expect a notable degree of stabilization in the U.S. business through H2/26. With the Canadian segment performing well, and valuations still near 18.9-per-cent (FCF yield), we believe an easing in U.S. declines from high single-digits."
* Telus Corp. (T-T) with a “buy” rating and $21 target. Average: $20.72.
Analyst: “We remain committed to our recent (December 3) upgrade on TELUS to a BUY given our view that TTECH (including Health) can sustain circa 3-per-cent EBITDA growth, and concerns around the dividend could ease as asset divestitures progress. A transaction around TELUS Health remains a catalyst for the name.”
On valuations, the analysts concluded: “With the H2 bounce in the sector, Canadian relative valuations have returned to historical levels against international peers. Relative to U.S. (and European peers), it remains at a slight premium with the FCF yield differential, which almost closed (U.S. Big 3 versus Cdn Big 3) by mid-2025, opening up once again to nearly 200 basis points (U.S. -10.5 per cent, Cdn – 8.5 per cent, 2026E). The dividend yield spread (div yield less CDN 10 YR), following BCE’s cut and still high long-term rates in the US, is now back to near its historical average of 2.5 per cent. With that said, we do note that there is relatively better sustainability now for the telecom dividend models versus two years ago. Thus, we would argue that the Canadian telecoms are better poised to benefit from a downtick in rates. "
While RBC Dominion Securities analyst Greg Pardy acknowledged the first week of January “arrived like a runaway freight train as Canada’s energy producers were beset by developments in Venezuela,” he said fourth-quarter 2025 estimates across the sector would “generally point toward a more placid landscape, with few big surprises in store.”
“We estimate that Canada’s majors — Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, Cenovus Energy and Imperial Oil — saw their free funds flow (before dividends and working capital movements) generation fall almost one-third sequentially ($2.2 billion) to $4.8 billion in the fourth-quarter, in large part due to soft oil prices,“ said Mr. Pardy, who is the firm’s Head of Global Energy Research. ”Nonetheless, share buybacks of $3.5 billion were relatively stable sequentially, in part given IMO’s accelerated completion of its NCIB.
“Suncor Energy remains our favorite integrated oil company in Canada (Global Energy Best Ideas list), with Canadian Natural Resources remaining our favorite senior producer (Global Energy Best Ideas list). Cenovus Energy, Athabasca Oil and Cardinal Energy round out our Outperform roster.”
In a client report released before the bell on Tuesday, Mr. Pardy updated his 2025-27 operating earnings and funds from operations estimates reflect fourth-quarter 2025 actual commodity prices, RBC’s updated commodity price outlook, disclosed share buybacks and other fine-tuning adjustments.
“Notably, our 2026 FFO estimates have fallen to varying degrees on the back of a 7 per cent (US$4) lower WTI outlook of US$56,” he said. “Our updated target prices reflect the application of target multiples applied to 2026 cash flows under mid-cycle prices (US$65 WTI and US$3.75 Henry Hub gas). We have also updated our 2027 earnings/FFO estimates reflective of our formal commodity price outlook with a WTI price of US$62 and Henry Hub price of US$4.00/mmBtu.”
Mr. Pardy made one rating change, downgraded Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” with a $5 target (unchanged). The average target on the Street is $5.04.
“Baytex’s disposition of its Eagle Ford operations for net proceeds of US$2.14-billion was a strategically sound move in our books, streamlining its portfolio into Canada while allowing for accelerated balance sheet deleveraging and a commitment to return a significant amount of deal proceeds to shareholders,” he said. “The market appears to agree given Baytex’s share price appreciation of around 26-per-cent post deal announcement. Given Baytex’s strong market performance, we see higher relative rates of return elsewhere within our coverage universe.”
Mr. Pardy’s other target changes are:
- Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH-T, “outperform”) to $7 from $7.50. Average: $7.90.
- Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ-T, “outperform”) to $61 from $62. Average: $54.40.
- Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T, “outperform”) to $29 from $32. Average: $31.45.
- Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T, “sector perform”) to $116 from $118. Average: $111.68.
- Parex Resources Inc. (PXT-T, “sector perform”) to $20 from $21. Average: $23.32.
- Strathcona Resources Ltd. (SCR-T, “outperform”) to $35 from $40. Average: $37.33.
- Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T, “outperform”) to $69 from $70. Average: $69.13.
After a “strong” holiday season prompted Groupe Dynamite Inc. (GRGD-T) to raise its full-year 2025 sales and margin expectations, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel reiterated her view of the clothing retailer as “an attractive SMID-cap name with sector-leading growth outlook, and compelling optionality for FCF deployment.”
The Montreal-based company, which is behind the Garage and Dynamite banners, now expects comparable store sales growth for the first nine weeks of its fourth quarter of 30.8 per cent, exceeding Ms. Nattel’s 30.0-per-cent estimate. It projects full-year 2025 growth to be in a range of 26.5 per cent to 27 per cent, up from a previous projection of between 25.5 per cent and 27.5 per cent and above the analyst’s 27.1-per-cent estimate.
“Release notes that EBITDA margin benefited from ‘disciplined execution’, ‘selective real estate strategy and rising digital engagement’,” she said.
“Tweaking Q4/F25 estimated EBITDA by 6 per cent, F26E-F28E EBITDA by 3 per cent, with F26EF28E KPIs unchanged: Reflecting holiday performance, notably around e-commerce contribution, into our model and leaving all else broadly unchanged drives upward revision to Q4/F25E adjusted EBITDA, to $142-million from $133-million, up 6 per cent. Looking ahead, revising F26E-28E EBITDA by 3 per cent. F26E-F28E EBITDA CAGR [compound annual growth rate] 17 per cent, a tick above prior published.”
With increases to her forecast, Ms. Nattel raised her target for Groupe Dynamite shares to $100 from $95. The average target on the Street is $93.78.
“Multiples are broadly in line with current 2026E valuation and with our valuation on Aritzia (TSX:ATZ) reflecting sector-leading return metrics and revenue/earnings momentum year-to-date and heading into 2026,” she explained.
“As GRGD seasons as a publicly-traded company and if KPIs remain at elevated levels, we would expect GRGD to establish a strong valuation range, consistent with our experience with other names in the space”
Elsewhere, other analysts making target adjustments include:
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $100 from $98 with an “outperform” rating.
“Notably, GRGD has outperformed cons. EPS each quarter since IPO and gradually increased F2025 guidance through the year,” he said. “Our revised estimates largely reflect the midpoint of the revised guidance. Notwithstanding, upside could remain as management has historically been conservative on guidance. GRGD trades at 17.5 times our NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA and 31.2 times our NTM EPS. Given GRGD’s growth momentum and outperformance, we believe its trading multiple can expand further. Specifically, we believe a trading multiple of 20 times EV/EBITDA is not unreasonable, which would suggest a price of $112 1-year from today.”
“We maintain a favourable disposition on GRGD. Investment in GRGD is differentiated by strong financial metrics, with an EBITDA margin and ROIC that is the highest in our coverage universe (LTM [last 12-month] EBITDA margin of 34.8 per cent and ROIC of 50.5 per cent).”
Elsewhere, other target revisions include:
* Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan to $99 from $96 with a “buy” rating.
“In our view, GRGD’s store economics should continue to improve as the reconfiguration of its store base increases the company’s exposure to higher-tier shopping centres. Combined with average unit retail expansion above inflation, a shorter production cycle for its SKUs, and ample white space in both the U.S. and international markets for its brands, we see plenty of opportunity for GRGD to improve its impressive returns on invested capital that are already at the high end of its peer group, which is currently trading at 12.6 times FY2 GAAP EV/EBITDA. Therefore, we are comfortable assigning a premium target multiple to GRGD shares,” said Mr. Hannan.
* BMO’s Stephen MacLeod to $98 from $97 with an “outperform” rating.
“We believe strong comps momentum should continue to be positive for the stock, combined with Groupe Dynamite’s positioning as a luxury-inspired affordable indulgence, its supply chain flexibility, ability to chase in-season, real estate strategy, and strong brand heat,” said Mr. MacLeod.
“We continue to believe Groupe Dynamite is well-positioned in the North American fast fashion women’s apparel market, with several drivers of high-teens adj. EBITDA growth. Estimates and target price increased.”
* CIBC’s Mark Petrie to $96 from $92 with an “outperformer” rating.
“Groupe Dynamite’s updated F2025 guidance is not as dramatically ahead of forecasts as recent quarters, but it is still an incremental positive vs. a much higher bar. We are updating our estimates, with the most notable revision on adjusted EBITDA margins, where our Q4 estimate increases by 220 bps. Our Q4 adjusted EPS forecast moves up by 12 per cent and this flows through to F2026 EPS, edging up by 4 per cent to $2.73,” said Mr. Petrie.
Pointing to its North America-based portfolio of two producing assets and an advanced-stage exploration project, National Bank Financial analyst Alex Terentiew sees Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA-T) “generating significant FCF over the medium term in premier jurisdictions, positioning the company well to fund its attractive and potentially peer-leading organic growth pipeline, warranting a premium valuation versus many of its intermediate peers.”
Touting the Vancouver-based company’s “attractive costs, plus strong FCF to fund organic growth pipeline,” he initiated coverage with an “outperform” recommendation.
“Over the next five years, we expect Orla to significantly increase its AuEq [gold equivalent] production from 290 koz in 2025E to 703 koz at an average AISC [all-in sustaining cost] of US$1,500/oz,” he said. “Growth is forecast to materialize through incremental production at Musselwhite (up 20 koz/yr as mining rates increase to fill the mill), the development of the South Railroad project in Nevada (up 100-200 koz/yr) and the Camino Rojo Sulphides project (incremental up 150-175 koz/yr). In our view, Orla has potential to increase Musselwhite from the current 1.3Mtpa run rate to at least the design capacity of 1.5Mtpa, with further upside possible, which we estimate could add up to an additional US$160 million in annual FCF. We expect Orla will be able to fund its organic projects through FCF, while improving its balance sheet along the way.
Mr. Terentiew sees Orla expanding production at a compound annual growth rate of 19 per cent from 2025 to 2030, which he emphasized places it among the top growing intermediate gold producers and well above his firm’s average for the size of miner of 5 per cent.
“Our base case assumes resource additions at all three assets, with an additional 2.6Moz of resources at Musselwhite, additional ounces at South Railroad given the strong exploration success to date, as well as measured & indicated (M&I) resource conversion at Camino Rojo Sulphides,” he added. “Despite our reserve additions, we see potential for even further NAV accretion through several operating and exploration scenarios, which in our view, are likely to materialize. We outline ... the various scenarios in which Orla could surface additional value above our base case, including the expansion of Musselwhite to 1.7Mtpa by 2028, an additional 3.9Moz (vs base case 2.6Moz) of gold resources added at Musselwhite, a 15-year life of mine (LOM) at South Railroad and lower costs per ounce at Camino Rojo Sulphides. In the bull case scenario, we see an additional 21-per-cent upside to our current NAV.”
Also emphasizing Orla’s “strong” shareholder register, which includes Fidelity, Pierre Lassonde and Fairfax, Mr. Terentiew set a target of $27 with an estimated total return of 36.4 per cent. The average target on the Street is $26.
“Versus intermediate peers, Orla trades at a premium on P/CF, which we think is largely attributed to the unwinding of the gold prepay that was entered into with the purchase of Musselwhite and reflective of near-term growth expectations,” he noted. “On an EV/EBITDA basis, Orla trades relatively in line with peers and on a P/NAV basis, at a slight discount, indicating re-rating potential in the future given the company’s strong jurisdictional mix and fully funded organic growth pipeline.”
After K92 Mining Inc.’s (KNT-T) fourth-quarter production results fell in line with his expectations, Ventum Capital Markets analyst Maximilian Myers reaffirmed his “confidence” in its ongoing transition from " a capital-intensive build phase into a higher free cash flow phase," pointing to “strong throughput rates, recoveries exceeding DFS assumptions, and the fact that ~95% of growth capital is now spent or committed.”
Shares of the Vancouver-based company, which is focused on expanding its Kainantu gold mine in Papua New Guinea, rose 3.8 per cent on Monday after it announced quarterly production of 47,178 ounces gold equivalent, exceeding Mr. Myers’s 46,100-ounce production.
“Lower-than-expected tonnes processed were more than offset by stronger grades and continued positive reconciliation versus the latest MRE, consistent with historical performance at Kainantu,” he said. “Full-year production of 174.1 koz AuEq represents a company record and landed at the upper end of 2025 guidance (160-185 koz AuEq).
“Strong Plant Performance: Production in Nov/Dec was exclusively from the new 1.2 Mtpa Stage 3 plant, highlighting its readiness post-commissioning. Q4 recoveries of 94.3 per cent for gold and 93.9 per cent for copper exceeded updated DFS assumptions for gold and met expectations for copper. Daily throughput rates reached as high as 3,822 tpd, implying a run-rate of nearly 1.4 Mtpa and demonstrating potential to operate above nameplate capacity.”
Also noting total mine development reached a quarterly record of 2,878 metres, up 12-per-cent sequentially, while “the successful commissioning of the 1.2 Mtpa Stage 3 processing plant materially de-risks the growth profile at Kainantu,” Mr. Myers raised his target for K92 shares to $29 from $24, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is currently $25.21.
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* RBC’s Harrison Reynolds to $36 from $32 with an “outperform” rating.
“Operational execution continues with 2025 production in line with guidance and focus shifting from the build and commissioning of the Stage 3 expansion in 2025 to realizing a production and cash flow uplift in 2026+. We maintain our constructive view on K92 anchored on the coming inflection point driven by the newly commissioned 1.2Mtpa mill followed by optimization to 1.8Mtpa (Stage 4) to lift production to 400koz at $1,000/oz AISC by 2028. We see room for valuation expansion while exploration success and potential Stage 5 expansion are unpriced options,” said Mr. Reynolds.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Peter Bell to $25.50 from $24.75 with a “buy” rating.
“Following a recent site trip to Kainantu, we came away impressed. Management outlined multiple projects designed to increase mine production, with the most significant ones aimed at reducing congestion in the mine, allowing more material movement. As a result, we have made several adjustments to our 2026 ramp up assumptions,” said Mr. Bell.
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Andrew Wong sees long-term potential upside in Ag Growth International Inc. (AFN-T), pointing to “potential mid-teens FCF yield at run-rate while cyclical market fundamentals are likely nearing bottom.”
However, he sees its valuation “remaining under pressure given recent company missteps and lack of near-term market visibility.”
“We believe better company execution and a market recovery could result in a meaningful re-rate long-term,” he added.
Following last week’s release of its third-quarter 2025 results, which were delayed due to complications with the accounting treatment of its operations in Brazil, Mr. Wong emphasized farm segment fundamentals in North America “remain soft, with management noting conditions remain challenging into at least H1/26.:
“Dealer inventories remain above historical, but trending lower, and customer engagement remains tepid,” he said. “We think underlying ag fundamentals remain solid given stable year/year crop prices and record yields in 2025 which should lead to an eventual recovery, but cash flow uncertainty and tariffs/ trade/macro continue to impact ag equipment purchases while inventories from the past up-cycle remain in the channel.
“Commercial has been strong, but some uncertainty into year ahead: The Commercial segment saw strong growth in 2025, driven mainly by large project wins in Brazil plus growth in the Middle East and India. Ag Growth has done well to win large project contracts in Brazil and we anticipate further wins long-term, but the timing of these projects are uncertain and can have a big influence on year/year revenue growth. Additionally, the company noted business in India and North America slowed noticeably toward end-2025 and may stay soft into early-2026.”
Emphasizing the Winnipeg-based bulk commodity storage, transport and processing company’s valuation remains “pressured, but could re-rate on execution, better market conditions,” Mr. Wong raised his target to $30 from $25, keeping a “sector perform” recommendation. The average on the Street is $35.50.
“We raise our multiple to 6 times EV/EBITDA, from 5 times, as the reasons for the Q3/25 filing delay were relatively benign (no historical restatements, impacts on other businesses, or accounting irregularities),” he explained. “However, valuation and investor sentiment may remain pressured by recent history of downward guidance revisions, challenged cash conversion, the Q3 filing delay, and muted market fundamentals. We believe better execution and a market turnaround that gives greater confidence to the long-term cash generation potential could drive an eventual re-rate.”
Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme reinstated coverage with a “buy” rating and $41 target.
“After various filing delays, AFN reported Q3/25 results. Importantly, an Audit Committee review found no ‘material concerns’ on key aspects of AFN’s Brazil operations. With the review complete, focus returns to fundamentals. We have re-established our TP, rating & estimates. Despite near-term agriculture market headwinds, we see AFN’s medium-to-long-term outlook as favourable and valuation as attractive,” he said.
In other analyst actions:
* Taking a “defensive” position on the energy sector in the near-term, CIBC’s Dennis Fong downgraded Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR-T) to “neutral” from “outperformer” with a $8.50 target, down from $9.50, and Logan Energy Corp. (LGN-X) to “neutral” from “outperformer” with a 95-cent target, falling from $1.15. Conversely, he raised Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY-T) to “outperformer” from “neutral” with a $25 target, rising from $21. The averages on the Street are $8.90, $1.26 and $23, respectively.
“Canadian oil equities performed well through 2025 despite weakness in the underlying commodity. The year brought significant macro and trade-related challenges coupled with significant volatility. Cracks remained resilient through 2025, albeit pulling back towards historical averages in December moderating what could have been a banner year for downstream margins. We expect the WCS-WTI basis could widen seasonally but remain at US$14.25 per Bbl for 2026. For natural gas, we see an improving demand outlook supported by the startup of LNG trains and expansion of data centers throughout 2026, which should provide a higher floor for prices over the long term. We expect supply and demand balances to tighten in 2026, which should support AECO differentials. Our Top Picks for 2026 areSU, KEL, and TVE,” said Mr. Fong.
* Citi’s James Hardiman raised his BRP Inc. (DOO-T) target to $128 from $122 with a “buy” rating. The average is $119.51.
“Based on our most recent powersports channel checks, data analysis, and management conversations, we believe that BRP (DOO) finished 2025 on the strongest of notes, gaining share in a solid ORV industry due in large part to the early popularity of the new Defender model. Meanwhile we estimate small/modest 4Q retail declines for PII, BC, and HOG. We are adding a catalyst watch to BRP while lowering estimates for HOG, with the latter more a function what we anticipated to be inventory rationalization. Our PII, BC, and HZO estimates are unchanged,” he said.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee hiked his Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) target to a high on the Street of $107 from $85 with a “buy” rating. The average is $90.83.
“Last week, EIF and Air Canada announced an expansion of their current contracted flying agreement, increasing from 6 to 11 aircraft and extending the relationship until 2032. While the deal, in itself, is not particularly material (approximately $25-40-million in annual revenue), we believe it highlights the plethora of potential catalysts facing the firm in F26 and F27. In particular, we view CN synergies, Northern Canadian infrastructure projects, and growing urgency around border surveillance as key potential drivers for positive earnings revisions throughout the year but also see an opportunity for manufacturing to outperform our forecast as Quest recovers. We have updated our model and valuation methodology for EIF with the most significant change being an increase to our Contracted Flying multiple (from 9 times to 11 times), which reflects the upswing in defence peers over the prior six months,” said Mr. Lee.