Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial energy equity analysts Dan Payne and Travis Wood expect momentum for gas names to continue early in 2026, however they warn of “a bumpy road given the extreme price volatility seen over the last few weeks.”
In a research report released before the bell previewing fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season for the sector titled Oh, What a Month, they emphasized the “relatively stronger” sequential momentum for gas-oriented names, pointing to a recovery in gas prices last quarter “driven by robust demand (read: strong LNG exports and favorable weather).”
“On the liquids side, the sequentially weaker cash flow per share ... is primarily driven by WTI prices (down 9 per cent quarter-over-quarter Q/Q) slipping on account of fears related to an oil glut,” they added.
“While we continue to believe that no tangible signs of oversupply have emerged so far (on a relative basis versus sentiment over 4Q25), we expect volatility to persist through 1H26 given the level of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. In addition, we note that FX has put some downward pressure on estimates over the next couple of quarters, as a stronger CAD dollar (relative to USD) is impacting overall top-line revenue.”
Updating their projections in response to “another quarter of mixed momentum” while also noting “crude prices have gotten up off the mat to start this year as result of growing geopolitical risk,” the analysts made a series of target price adjustments for stocks in their coverage universe.
For senior and integrated producers, they are:
- Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ-T, “sector perform”) to $54 from $47. The average is $51.08, according to LSEG data.
- Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T, “outperform”) to $34 from $29. Average: $29.51.
- Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T, “sector perform”) to $139 from $127. Average: $114.56.
- Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T, “outperform”) to $85 from $72. Average: $69.14.
Other changes include:
- Arc Resources Ltd. (ARX-T, “outperform”) to $28 from $29. Average: $30.63.
- Headwater Exploration Inc. (HRX-T, “outperform”) to $11.50 from $10.50. Average: $10.53.
- Ovintiv Inc. (OVV-N/OVV-T, “outperform”) to US$56 from US$54. Average: US$51.
- PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (PSK-T, “outperform”) to $35 from $32. Average: $33.
- Tenaz Energy Corp. (TNZ-T, “outperform”) to $66 from $52. Average: $48.
- Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET-T, “outperform”) to $18.50 from $14.50. Average: $13.66.
- Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP-T, “outperform”) to $16 from $15. Average: $14.49.
When Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR-N, QSR-T) reports its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on Feb. 12 before the bell, Citi analyst Jon Tower is expecting a “relatively strong” from its U.S. Burger King locations, while Tim Hortons will continue to post mid-single-digits comparable same store sales growth in Canada.
Also predicting “favorable cost laps/G&A savings,” he thinks the company is on track to hit its 8-per-cent adjusted operating income (AOI) growth target for the year.
“With the BK China sale behind the company, NRG should begin to tick higher in the year ahead, though the lower royalty rate early in the agreement and still modest AUVs [average unit volumes] mean contribution to sys-sales/AOI growth will require time,” said Mr. Tower. “We continue to believe management will target another year of 8-per-cent-plus AOI growth in ’26, but we don’t see the build without greater cost savings and/or outsized comp growth from key brands (BK US/TH CAN/BK INTL).”
In a client note released late Monday, the analyst raised his full-year 2026 earnings per share projection to US$3.98 from US$3.92, citing better fourth-quarter same-store sales and “modest shifts in unit growth.” His 2025 estimate remains US$3.70.
“Key topics/questions ... (1) Are BK U.S. franchisee-level cost pressures impacting willingness to re-model (400 remodels discussed in ’26)? Is there a need to shift incentives again? (2) Within the BK INTL business, how quickly can the China business ramp NRG [new restaurant growth] under new ownership/contribute more meaningfully to aggregate sys sales growth? (3) At TH CAN, how does management see its strategy evolving around the afternoon/food business should the demand backdrop weaken? (4) As GLP-1 usage rises in the U.S., what opportunities does mgmt. see (core menu/LTOs) to drive incremental demand/mix? (5) As PLK steps back to reassess its innovation approach what’s the next tangible catalyst for a turnaround and when should investors see early proof points?,” he said.
“What the data says — (1) Year-over-year BK U.S. footfall improved by 210 basis points quarter-over-quarter (to up 0.7 per cent), though slowed entering 1Q26, while share vs the Big 3 ticked up through Dec/slowed in Jan. (2) Second Measure data indicates that U.S. sales growth for both BK and PLK slowed quarter-over-quarter driven primarily by weaker transaction growth. (3) Canada’s unemployment rate remained elevated vs. ‘23/’24.”
Maintaining a “neutral” rating for Restaurant Brands shares, Mr. Tower reduced his target by US$2 to US$72. The average target on the Street is US$79.
“The company has demonstrated an ability to improve franchisee profitability in core home markets across the portfolio, and we expect this broadly continues, along with strong unit growth for Burger King International, ramping of PLK brand globally and solid comp growth at TH Canada,” he explained. “However, limited visibility into the economics of nascent businesses outside core markets (eg, PLK INTL, TH INTL, FHS) means it is difficult to underwrite NRG (new restaurant growth) returning to and sustaining at more than 5 per cent and layering this into valuation. At the same time, we see above-average room for near- to medium-term estimate volatility related to the Burger King US brand repositioning/reinvestment, particularly as the competitive set ramps promotional activity to drive traffic.”
Ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on March 11, National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen says he’s staying “positive” on NFI Group Inc. (NFI-T) due to its backlog and a “supportive” funding backdrop for public transit.
“At the end of Q3/25, NFI’s backlog was 15,606 firm orders and options worth $13.2 billion and the average price in backlog is up 3.2 per cent relative to Q3/24, providing strong visibility on deliveries and margin improvement in 2026 and beyond, in our view,” he said in a client note. “We also highlight that funding for public transit in the key U.S. market looks to be well-supported in 2026.”
“In the U.S., the bill that funds new transit bus purchases, the IIJA, is in its final year (FY2026). The House and Senate Appropriations Committe leadership have recently agreed on specific funding for the final year and the Buses and Bus Facilities Grants would see FY2026 funding levels slightly above FY2025 enacted funding levels with total dollars consistent with the planned funding in the original IIJA bill. Recall that the IIJA has seen a significant increase in transit funding over the prior five-year bill, which has been a key reason behind NFI’s strong backlog build and delivery visibility in the next few years. Another year of strong funding should support order activity in the U.S. this year.”
Remaining “constructive” on the prospects for its stock, Mr. Doerksen said the Winnipeg-based company’s margins should “benefit from ongoing tailwinds from better pricing in backlog as well as higher throughput” and a higher EBITDA and cash flows will “bring leverage down, leading to lower interest expense.”
However, he does have concerns about its supply chain, which he said remain “a risk” for NFI.
“We are hopeful that this year will see ongoing improvement in deliveries,” he said. “The seat supply issue that has plagued NFI should continue to improve given that NFI will have a third seat supplier for the whole year and is also now a joint owner of the troubled seat supplier, which should provide more control to better manage risks. In mid-December, NFI came to an agreement with one of its battery suppliers related to the previously announced electric bus recall with the financial recovery for NFI better than our initial expectations.”
After modest tweaks to his 2026 forecast and introducing his 2027 projections, Mr. Doerksen raised his target for NFI shares to $22 from $18, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $20.67.
“For 2027, we forecast 5,485 bus deliveries (versus 5,125 forecast for 2026) and low-single digit pricing increases which drives total revenue growth of 8.8 per cent. Boosted by higher volumes and pricing improvements, we forecast a 2027 EBITDA margin of 9.7 per cent (versus a forecast of 9.0 per cent in 2026). We forecast overall 2027 EBITDA of $435-million,” he said.
Ventum Capital Markets analyst Amr Ezzat sees “visibility improving across the value chain” for 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T).
Shares of the Montreal-based producer of specialty semiconductors and performance materials soared 5.9 per cent on Monday on the premarket announcement of a plan by its wholly owned subsidiary, AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH, to expand solar cell production capacity by an additional 25 per cent in 2026 following a 30-per-cent increase last year. That follows last week’s $18.1-million Defense Production Act (DPA) Title III award from the U.S. Department of War to expand domestic germanium refining.
Mr. Ezzat said the combined developments “materially enhance long-term visibility and further entrench 5N’s position in mission-critical supply chains tied to space, defence, and advanced optics.”
“On the downstream side, space solar demand is increasingly contracted and planned years in advance,” he explained. “On the upstream side, domestic refining capacity backed by U.S. defence authorities reduces supply-chain risk and strengthens customer confidence. This combination supports margin durability, capital discipline, and a longer planning horizon, all of which warrant a lower risk premium in our valuation framework.
“Capital allocation flexibility preserved: With leverage already low, the award’s non-dilutive nature preserves balance sheet flexibility and reinforces management’s disciplined approach to capital deployment. The Company continues to emphasize mature, profitable specialty materials opportunities with partnership-style customer relationships, rather than early-stage or R&D-heavy assets.”
Reaffirming his “buy” recommendation for 5N Plus shares, Mr. Ezzat raised his target to $30, matching the average on the Street, from $26, citing “a lower discount rate (10.0 per cent from 10.5 per cent), reflecting increased visibility, government-backed de-risking, and deeper integration into defense and space supply chains.” He also unveiled higher long-term growth assumptions, “supported by “sustained space solar demand and expanding strategic relevance of critical materials.”
“The target increase reflects improved confidence in the durability and quality of cash flows beyond 2026, rather than near-term estimate revisions,” he added. “The market’s underestimation of growth catalysts in specialty semiconductor and renewable energy applications presents a compelling case for multiple expansion as investors recognize the Company’s direct alignment with surging demand for advanced materials in clean energy and advanced tech applications. Given the Company’s positioning in these high-growth markets and its potential to capture outsized growth relative to peers, we don’t think it’s inconceivable for the market to assign a premium to 5N Plus amid continued secular tailwinds.”
“5N Plus presents a compelling investment case as a transformed, high-calibre materials innovator at the nexus of renewable energy, space-based technologies, and semiconductors. The Company’s strategic focus on advanced materials and decades of innovation-driven expertise have established formidable barriers to entry, positioning it as a linchpin in essential supply chains across high-growth markets. As a key supplier to First Solar, the Company is positioned to ride the accelerating demand for thin-film photovoltaics, while its AZUR Space division cements its foothold in the rapidly expanding space solar power market. At the same time, its geopolitical edge – being the only viable non-China-based provider of ultra-high-purity semiconductor compounds – makes it indispensable as Western nations race to localize supply chains. This is not the same company investors once knew – 5N Plus has decisively shifted toward high-margin, value-added markets, diversified across structurally growing, non-correlated industries. With long-term contracts reinforcing deep-rooted customer relationships and a vertically integrated supply chain ensuring operational resilience, 5N Plus stands out as a compelling yet underappreciated growth story.”
Elsewhere, ATB Capital Markets’ Nicholas Boychuk hiked his target to $37.50 from $42, keeping a “top pick” recommendation.
“This announcement further confirms the moat and positioning AZUR has in the global space power market. There are very few manufacturers with the quality, scale, and track record as AZUR, and their captive hold on Western European, Asian, and parts of the North American market are likely to only increase as geopolitical tensions rise further,” said Mr. Boychuk.
In a research report previewing fourth-quarter 2025 results for his Canadian diversified media coverage universe titled Turning the Page on a Challenging Year, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Drew McReynolds predicts 2026 will centre on “navigating accelerating structural change.”
“While structural change is not at all new to most companies in our diversified media coverage having managed through a highly disruptive Web 2.0 wave over the past 25 years, we do believe the ongoing consumer and enterprise adoption of generative and agentic AI is driving a second major wave of accelerating structural change for the group,” he said. “Although we see some content disruption parallels between the rise of the Internet (Web 2.0/HTML, automating interactivity) and the rise of generative and agentic AI (Web 3.0/MCP, automating decision-making), we do expect AI impacts on the media sector, advertising market and consumer-grade solutions to be different to those on the information services sector and much higher-stakes professional-grade solutions.
“Specifically: (i) not unlike the rise of digital advertising (search, display) beginning in the early 2000s, we expect generative and agentic AI to have similar impacts on consumer behaviour driving once again another major transformation of the advertising market that is already beginning to incorporate generative search and agentic commerce; and (ii) for content-driven technology providers like Thomson Reuters, we expect the companies’ business models to once again evolve to ones that with generative and agentic AI enables the professional services industry to extract more intelligence from knowledge and automate more intelligence into action – all while advising professionals on how best to manage these more advanced workflows."
From an investing perspective, the analyst says he’s “still cautiously optimistic on renewed cyclical strength.
“Most Canadian media stocks lagged the broader market in 2025, which we attribute to both cyclical and structural headwinds despite the avoidance of worst-case tariff and economic scenarios for the North American economy and a relative degree of resilience in advertising spend, against the backdrop of notably strong performance by the S&P/TSX Composite,” he said. “While within our diversified media coverage we believe 2026 will be a year of navigating accelerating structural change, we do remain cautiously optimistic on a better advertising backdrop emerging should real GDP growth in North America reaccelerate consistent with RBC Economics’ forecasts. Our focus this quarter will be 2026 guidance, recent company conversations with advertisers, and Q1/26 pacing.”
Mr. McReynolds said Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-Q, TRI-T) remains “in the spotlight” in the near term.
“Not unlike other information services companies, we believe disconnecting from the broader AI disruption narrative in 2026 remains the key potential catalyst for the stock,” he said. “We expect Thomson Reuters to meet its in-quarter guidance for Q4/25 as well as reiterate its 2026 outlook that now includes an increase in adjusted EBITDA margin expansion from more than 50 basis points to approximately 100 basis points and FCF at the high-end of the $2.0-$2.1-billion range. Also in focus will be the extent to which management provides additional KPIs/disclosures around AI adoption/monetization that could begin to disconnect Thomson Reuters from the broader AI disruption narrative. While reaching escape velocity from this narrative this quarter is unlikely, we do believe the provision of new KPIs/disclosures could be a catalyst for finding a firmer floor on the stock at these levels.”
After updating his forecast, Mr. McReynolds cut his target for Thomson Reuters shares to US$155 from US$177, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average on the Street is US$176.21.
Mr. McReynolds also made these other changes:
- Cineplex Inc. (CGX-T, “outperform”) to $13 from $14. Average: $12.83.
- Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T, “outperform”) to $27 from $29. Average: $28.33.
- Stingray Group Inc. (RAY.A-T, “outperform”) to $18 from $17. Average: $17.
“Our best ideas are Transcontinental [TCL.A-T, ”outperform" and $29 target], Stingray and Cineplex," he said.
In other analyst actions:
* JPMorgan’s Tomohiko Sano initiated coverage of AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T) with an “overweight” rating and US$135 target. The average target on the Street is $120.45.
* In response to its friendly share and cash takeover offer from Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD-T) for $3.8-billion, ATB Capital Markets’ Stefan Ioannou moved Foran Mining Corp. (FOM-T) to “tender from “outperform” with a $6.60 target, up from $5. His Eldorado target slid to $89 from $100 with an “outperform” rating to “reflect the increased execution risk in the short-term with two mines now in the queue for initial production in 2026.” The averages are $5.50 and $64.64, respectively.
Elsewhere, Canaccord Genuity’s Carey MacRury cut his Eldorado target to $62 from $70, maintaining a “buy” rating.
“We are under the impression Eldorado initiated formal due diligence on Foran/McIlvenna Bay in H2/25,” Mr. Ioannou said. “Foran’s shareholders will receive 0.1128 common shares of Eldorado and $0.01 in cash for each Foran share held, positioning existing Eldorado and Foran shareholders with approximately 76-per-cent and 24-per-cent interests, respectively, in the combined company—underpinned by an established gold and base metals production profile spanning mines, development projects, and exploration assets in Canada, Greece, and Türkiye (77-per-cent gold weighted on a 2027E revenue basis). The offer, expected to close in Q2/26 subject to Foran shareholder approval (66.7 per cent), includes customary break fees purportedly in line with values typical of similar sized transactions.”
* In a report previewing quarterly results for Canadian aerospace and defence companies, TD Cowen’s Tim James trimmed his Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) target to $276 from $278, keeping a “hold” rating, based on currency considerations. The average target is $264.33.
“We forecast 18-per-cent average EBITDA growth for the group in Q4. We believe the bar is high for strong share price responses given recent valuation multiple expansion across the group. Positive medium- to long-term outlooks (Defence spending/civil cycle) should hold investor focus and limit the extent of any shorter-term pullbacks if earnings come up short,” said Mr. James.
* In response to a “solid” fourth-quarter beat, National Bank Financial’s Jaeme Gloyn raised his Brookfield Business Partners LP (BBU-N, BBU.UN-T) target to US$44 from US$43 with an “outperform” rating. The average is US$42.33.
“Despite tariff risks and potential secondary impacts, we expect BBU’s diversified portfolio of companies across sectors/geographies will continue to deliver solid results,” said Mr. Gloyn. “Additionally, the proceeds from the Clarios dividend recapitalization and the secondary sale of three assets provide optionality for capital allocation and ultimately value creation as BBU repurchases shares and reinvests in new businesses (e.g., Chemelex, Antylia Scientific, First National, Fosber). Moreover, we continue to believe BBU will ultimately benefit from a more active M&A backdrop that will drive increased monetizations in the future. Lastly, we believe the conversion to a single corporate structure will improve liquidity, index inclusion, and ultimately support a higher share price (expected to complete by end of Q1 2026).”
* Following Exchange Income Corp.’s (EIF-T) announcement on Monday of the US$43-million acquisition of MnM Aircraft Component Holdings Inc. (MACH 2), a Florida-based aftermarket aircraft parts supply/trading company, National Bank Financial’s Cameron Doerksen raised his target for its shares to $110 from $109, exceeding the $97.25 average, with an “outperform” rating. Elsewhere, other changes include: Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $109 from $107 with a “buy” rating and Raymond James’ Steve Hansen to $110 from $100 with a “strong buy” rating.
“Recall that following the acquisition of Canadian North last year, EIC now operates a fleet of Boeing 737 narrow-bodies, so having an internal source for parts supply will help operations and lower costs for Canadian North. More importantly, the aftermarket parts market for narrow-bodies is much larger than the regional aircraft aftermarket, so with the financial backing of EIC, MACH 2 will have a better opportunity to grow its third-party parts supply business. We expect EIC to take a cautious approach to market expansion. As such, we would expect mainly incremental capital commitments in the near term as MACH 2 expands its parts inventory,” said Mr. Doerksen.
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho reduced his Fiera Capital Corp. (FSZ-T) target to $6.50 from $6.75 with a “hold” rating. The average is $7.50.
“FSZ reported preliminary December AUM [assets under management] of $164.1-billion, down 1.7 per cent quarter-over-quarter. While private markets AUM was flat sequentially, we were surprised by the larger $3.4-billion quarter-over-quarter decline in PineStone AUM. FSZ tends to generate higher performance fees in 4Q, but Frontier Fund performance has been soft in 2025. Otherwise, we will look for an update on new mandate wins and early progress from infrastructure team changes,” said Mr. Ho.
* Scotia’s John Zamparo increased his Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-N, GIL-T) target to US$72 from US$66 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is US$83.64.
“We’ve revised our estimates on GIL ahead of FQ4 results to reflect the closing of the HBI deal, which occurred earlier than we had previously expected. We believe some headline Q4 consensus figures do not fully reflect the earlier transaction timing and HBI’s one-month contribution. We expect FQ4 result to be noisy given one-time costs and the difference in accounting standards (IFRS vs GAAP) of the two businesses. Our EBIT estimate is 20 per cent above consensus (though in line with recent broker updates), while EPS is 4.5 per cent below. The stock is up 7 per cent since it last reported and 4 per cent year-to-date. GIL trades at 14.1 times NTM [next 12-month] P/E, compared with its long-term average of 14.7 times. We increase our price target to $72 ($66 previously), now applying a higher P/E multiple, at 14 times (on 2027 estimates, discounted), due to higher conviction in HBI synergies. We are constructive on GIL for this year owing to its combination of synergy/deleveraging themes, as well as solid positioning of the apparel space,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young raised his Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T) target to $78 from $75, remaining the high on the Street, with a “buy” rating. The average is $69.33.
“The company has executed on various initiatives since the POW/PWF reorganization (in 2020): (1) achieving 100 per cent of targeted expense reductions; (2) launching new funds and raising third-party capital; (3) simplifying its corporate structure; (4) realizing value in certain core investments; and (5) realizing value in non-core investments. Further actions to surface value are a possibility. By our math, it has $850–900-million of excess liquidity available (pro forma the recent Wealthsimple financing and recent buyback activity) and management still sees several levers to generate additional cash flow. It bought back $170-million of shares in 3Q25 and $300-million in 4Q25 (reflected in our numbers). Management remains committed to returning capital to shareholders. We recently published a note which outlines POW’s attractive risk/reward profile,” said Mr. Young.