Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Calling it “a capital-light AI winner,” ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner upgraded Shopify Inc. (SHOP-T) to an “outperform” recommendation from “sector perform” previously ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on Wednesday before the bell.
“The broader SaaS [software as a service] landscape is struggling with slowing growth and rising AI risks,” he said. “The M7 face margin compression from massive AI infrastructure spend. We believe Shopify is sitting in attractive territory and is well positioned to be a capital light beneficiary from AI.
“Our upgrade is driven by: I. Structural Operating Leverage: while margins are contracting in other parts of the value chain, we see upside to SHOP’s high teens FCF margins. II. The Agentic Commerce Multiplier: while it is too early to see in the data, we believe Shopify’s agentic commerce stack has strong growth potential. III. META’s approximately 1,000 basis points Q1/26 revenue growth acceleration is a positive read-thru for SHOP’s Q1/26 guide. and IV. Attractive Return to Target: at current levels, investors can own the de facto winner in ecommerce, that is growing at 25 per cent plus, with a strong FCF trajectory.”
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Toner said the Ottawa-based e-commerce giant possesses an “attactive growth story.”
“When comparing large-cap entities ($50-billion-plus) maintaining 25-per-cent-plus growth, Shopify stands out for its Value-to-Growth profile,” he explained. “While it carries a premium P/ Sales multiple of 16 times, its accelerating FCF makes it an attractive alternative to traditional enterprise software names currently facing AI-related headwinds. While M7 companies are seeing FCF yields stagnate due to high CAPEX, our updated model projects SHOP’s FCF margin to hit 18.8 per cent in Q4 and the high 20s per cent over time.
“Fortuitous Timing? The drawdown in software may come at an opportune time for SHOP investors as META’s Q1/26 guide, an 1,000bp surprise, implies that SHOP’s revenue and GMV expectations may be beatable.”
The analyst kept a $250 target for Shopify shares. The average on the Street is $238.92, according to LSEG data.
Elsewhere, citing an “unusually attractive entry point,” MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Morton upgraded Shopify to “buy” from “neutral” and raised his target to US$150 from US$122.
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Drew McReynolds sees “an asymmetric set-up now to the upside” for shares of Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-Q, TRI-T) following the recent pullback, leading him to upgrade his recommendation to “outperform” from “sector perform” on Tuesday.
“Acknowledging that any analysis at this juncture examining TAM [total addressable market] and market share scenarios should be viewed as illustrative and instructive rather than predictive or deterministic, our key investment takeaways from our scenario analysis are: (1) Thomson Reuters has a higher growth ceiling but with a wider range of outcomes; (2) TAM evolution is the most important determinant in assessing the growth and risk profile of the stock; and (3) the potential upside versus downside trade-off in the stock has become more attractive following the pullback,” he said.
In a client report released before the bell titled Sizing up Thomson 4.0 - Back to the Future, Mr. McReynolds said the “disconnecting from the broader AI disruption narrative” remains the key catalyst for Thomson Reuters’ stock moving forward, calling it “finding some escape velocity.”
“While we do not expect the gap between public market valuations and intrinsic values to be eliminated while an AI disruption narrative persists, we do see five ways for Thomson Reuters to reach some escape velocity that can narrow the gap: (1) a steady re-acceleration in year-over-year consolidated organic revenue growth through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027 from an estimated 7 per cent in Q1/26; (2) what should be accelerating deployment and early monetization in 2026 of a market-leading agentic AI roadmap; (3) the disclosure of additional KPIs confirming Thomson Reuters is sustaining or strengthening its competitive position; (4) the announcement of strategic partnerships and/or acquisitions that reinforce competitive positioning, accelerate execution capabilities and/or solidify existing content moats; and/or (5) confirmation that ongoing generative AI-driven TAM expansion is accelerating with agentic AI,” he explained.
The analyst now sees Thomson Reuters’ valuation (at 12.5 times forward 12-month EV/EBITDA better) reflecting its “growth and risk profile.” He maintained a target price of US$126 for its shares. The average target on the Street is US$138.70.
“On the growth front, our conviction levels on Thomson Reuters sustaining or strengthening its competitive position within legal and tax verticals over the next 3-5 years with agentic AI have increased over the past six months with our forecast translating to a 2025-2029 estimated NAV CAGR [net asset value compound annual growth rate] of 14 per cent,” he said. “On the risk front, this mid-teen NAV CAGR underpinned by 100 basis points of annual margin expansion consistent with guidance is capable of absorbing 1.5 times points of additional annual EV/EBITDA multiple compression over this period before annual total returns would turn negative. We also see the potential to narrow the public market valuation discount to intrinsic value that looks overdone under the majority of tail risk/terminal growth scenarios. Furthermore, with US$11-billion in excess balance sheet capacity through 2028, we believe likely substantial share repurchases should support a firmer floor on the stock.”
Precious metals equity analysts at Stifel see “a fundamental transformation in structural profitability for gold equities.”
“The combination of historically high gold prices and cost discipline and containment has catalyzed a regime of unprecedented margin expansion,” they explained. “Unlike previous cycles when pro-cyclical behaviour was defined by aggressive and dilutive M&A, pursuit of marginal IRR projects and vast underestimation of the fluidity of unit operating costs, sustaining capital requirements and capital intensity of new projects, which effectively neutralized the benefits of a rising gold price, the current environment reveals a gold sector prioritizing margins and return on invested capital (ROIC) over production growth.”
In a client report released before the bell, the firm increased its 2026 gold price forecast by 23 per cent to US$4,925 per ounce (from US$4,000 previously). Their 2027, 2026 and long-term projections rose 19 per cent, 24 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, to US$5,000, US$5,200 and US$3,500 (from US$4,200, US$4,200 and US$3,000).
That led them to increase their target prices for stocks in their coverage universe an average of 20 per cent, with an average return to target of 44 per cent.
“In a market that prices gold in response to geopolitical risks and structural shifts in financial asset diversification, we believe underlying fundamentals are supported by four themes: (1) monetary easing cycles; (2) strategic Central Bank accumulation; (3) increasing institutional asset allocation; and (4) gold’s role as an essential hedge against fragmentation in regional economic and financial markets and as a necessary defensive hedge against “Big Tech” cyclical growth exposure in 2026,“ the analysts said
“Our preferred precious metals picks are: Alamos, Aya Gold & Silver, Barrick, DPM, Equinox Gold, G Mining, K92, Kinross, Montage, Orla, OR Royalties, Southern Cross, Wheaton PM.”
They also emphasized intermediate and mid-tier producers are our preferred group for growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) exposure to precious metals.
“While senior producers remain the ‘blue-chip’ anchors, we believe well-capitalized, growth-oriented, intermediate (0.5-2.0Moz/yr) and mid-tier gold (0.1-0.5Moz/yr) gold producers are best positioned to offer a compelling risk: reward tradeoff on relative valuation, leverage to higher gold prices, upside to reserves life, exploration catalysts and M&A re-rating potential,” they said. “On consensus estimates, intermediate gold producers (0.5-2.0Moz/yr) are trading at 0.92 times on P/NAV - a 22.3-per-cent discount vs. senior golds (more than 2.0Moz/ year) vs. historical average of 24.6-per-cent discount; and mid-tier gold producers (0.1-0.5Moz/yr) at 0.82 times on P/NAV - a 10.4-per-cent discount vs. intermediate golds and a 30.5-per-cent discount vs. senior golds vs. historical average of 17.0-per-cent discount and 37.5-pere-cent discount, respectively.”
The analysts made one rating revision with Ingrid Rico downgrading Allied Gold Corp. (AAUC-T) to “hold” from “buy” with a $44 target, matching the average and down from $45 previously, following its agreement to be acquired by China’s Zijin Gold International Co. in a $5.5-billion deal.
“Allied was on its own path to re-rate as it is approaching near-term, high-margin, production growth from its soon-to-be new mine in Ethiopia,” she explained. That said, on January 26, it was announced that Zijin Gold (not covered) made a friendly, all-cash offer to acquire AAUC for C$44/sh. We believe there is low likelihood of a higher offer in the context of the comprehensive strategic review process the company has gone through. We are updating our rating to Hold and revising our target price to reflect the takeout offer.”
For senior producers, their target adjustments are:
- Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX-T, “buy”) to $95 from $65. Average: $76.50.
- Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T, “buy”) to $350 from $300. Average: $310.32.
- Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T, “buy”) to $65 from $45. Average: $54.37.
- Newmont Corp. (NEM-N, “buy”) to US$175 from US$120. Average: US$139.81.
While TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison thinks Aimia Inc. (AIM-T) continues to “make progress on its strategy to operate as a permanent capital company,” he sees its future value tied to its “forthcoming investment decisions/utilization” of net cash proceeds from its sale of its 94-per-cent equity interest in Giovanni Bozzetto S.p.A to One Equity Partners.
He lowered his rating for the Toronto-based company to “hold” from “buy” in response to Monday morning’s announcement of the deal, which is expected to garner net proceeds of $268-million, following a reduction to its valuation. That led to a new target of $3 for Aimia shares, down from $3.75 and representing a return that does not meet his “required hurdle rate.”
“The sale of Bozzetto is forecast to achieve net after-tax proceeds of $265-million-$271-million, subject to working capital adjustments,” Mr. Morrison explained. “This equates to an enterprise value of $411-million that as per management implies a TTM [trailing 12-month] EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.5-7.0 times. Taking into consideration its 94-per-cent equity interest, the proceeds are lower than what we had accounted for within our SOTP [sum-of-the-parts] valuation.”
“Aimia intends to utilize cash proceeds from the transaction, to make a tender offer within 30 days for its senior secured notes of $143-million, that resulted from its preferred share SIB. This appears to be an attractive allocation of capital should the offer be taken up, due to the elevated interest rate at 9.75 per cent.”
Despite his downgrade, the analyst emphasized Aimia sits “well positioned to allocate its notable cash proceeds to public assets.”
“This transaction is in line with its strategy to establish a permanent structure investment holding company, in an attempt to exchange privately held assets for ‘undervalued’ public assets and utilize its material ($573-million) net capital tax losses over time’,” he said. “Management states the most compelling investment opportunities are in the U.K. presently.”
In response to Minto Apartment REIT’s (MI.UN-T) announcement on Jan. 5 that it has entered into an arrangement with Crestpoint Real Estate Investments LP to be taken private in a deal valued at $2.3-billion, including debt, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Jimmy Shan moved his rating for its shares to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
“Our Sector Perform rating is primarily a function of our total return expectations versus the broad REIT/REOC sector and is based on the recently-announced take private transaction,” he said in a note titled The uncomfortable truth of having a controlling unitholder.
Mr. Shan moved his target for Minto units to $18 from $16.50 to reflect the acquisition price. The average is currently.
“Our target reflects high probability of the deal being approved and closed at $18 offer price,” he explained. “That said, the absence of an auction process or ‘formal market check’ driven by Minto Group’s position to support a transaction with Crestpoint only, combined with the presence of an unsolicited offer from “Party A”, certainly raise doubts as to whether full value was achieved.”
National Bank Financial’s Alex Terentiew predicts 2026 will be a “transformational year” for Versamet Royalties Corp. (VMET-T).
The equity analyst sees several key catalysts emerging, including: the first full year of sales from its Kiaka mine in Burkina Faso; the ramp-up of its nearby Toega deposit and the expansion of Rosh Pinah in Namibia and Kolpa in Peru later this year, doubling the company’s gold sales.
He resumed coverage following the close of a $142-million equity financing, issuing 10.3 million shares at $13.75 each. On Monday after the bell, Versamet also announced the closing of a separate $22-million private placement with existing shareholder, Tether Investments, which is maintaining its equity holding at 12.7 per cent.
“Versamet expects to use funds raised to pay down debt, fund new acquisitions, and support general corporate purposes. We estimate net debt to fall from US$161-million at December 31, 2025, to US$18-million at March 31, 2026, putting the company in a strong position to execute on new acquisitions, should they become available,” said Mr. Terentiew. “The company has credit facilities totaling US$180-million as of September 30 (US$177-million drawn), which combined with our average quarterly FCF estimate of US$27-million, puts it in a strong financial position.”
After incorporated his firm’s latest metal price assumptions and the recent equity raise, Mr. Terentiew raised his target for Versamet shares to $18 from $15, reaffirming an “outperform” rating. The average is $17.
“With sales volumes expected to rise to AuEq approximately 24 koz [thousand ounces] in 2026, from 10 koz in 2025, we continue to view Versamet as the one of the best near-term growth stories in the junior royalty universe,” he said. “Relative to its peers, we forecast Versamet to have the largest, yet potentially the lowest risk cash flow growth in the near term.”
“We derive our target price for Versamet from a 100-per-cent weighted 1.47 times P/NAV target multiple, revised from 1.40 times P/NAV to reflect the advances at some of the company’s assets. Compared to its peers, VMET currently trades at a slight discount, with a P/NAV of 1.14 times compared to peer average of 1.30 times.”
Following fourth-quarter 2025 results that displayed “robust third-party spending and liquids growth,” TD Cowen analyst Aaron Bilkoski says PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (PSK-T) “continues to be a reliable provider of free cash flow.”
“Its asset base replenishes itself or grows with nearly $2-billion of capital spent on its lands in 2025 that drove liquids production growth and strong margins relative to E&Ps,” he added. “For 2026, we estimate PSK will grow liquids 6.5 per cent through Q4/26E, pay a dividend (3.5-per-cent yield) and generate excess FCF sufficient to repurchase approximately 2 per cent of its shares outstanding.”
On Monday after the bell, the Calgary-based company reported quarterly total royalty production volumes averaging 25,965 barrels of oil equivalent per day, falling in line with the 26,200 barrel estimate of both the analyst and the Street. Cash flow per share of 35 cents was 2 cents below Mr. Bilkoski’s projection and a penny below the consensus expectation.
“That said, PSK’s quarterly cash flow was weighed down modestly by $7.2-million attributed to DSUs related to retirements - a non-reoccurring expense that, in our view, should be overlooked (resulting in adjusted CFPS of $0.38),” he noted.
“Although corporate production was relatively flat quarter-over-quarter and total reserves were flat year-over-year, the key value driver within the portfolio (liquids) is growing (liquids reserves up 4 per cent year-over-year). As we have flagged many times, the biggest contributors to this oil growth have been the Clearwater and, more recently, the West Shale Duvernay play.”
Keeping his “buy” rating, Mr. Bilkoski raised his target to $33 from $30 to reflect “a combination of i) year-over-year liquids growth in the year-end reserves, ii) increased third- party annual capital spending assumption on PSK’s land, and iii) update to our Duvernay value to reflect higher-than-expected third party growth assumptions since our last NAV update.” The average on the Street is $34.33.
“We acknowledge the merits of PSK’s model over a variety of business types - zero capital costs, self-replenishing/growing assets, negligible cash expenses, and lack of ARO. The business offers diversified exposure to the WCSB, while management has demonstrated its expertise acquiring mineral acres and GORRs ahead of major industry trends,” he added.
Elsewhere, other target revisions include:
* BMO’s Jeremy McCrea to $34 from $32 with an “outperform” rating.
“PrairieSky continues to solidify its position as a leading E&P business, supported by its high-margin asset base, robust profitability, and strong balance sheet,” he said. “Another strong quarter for the company, Q4 showcased steady multi-lateral wells spud, with heightened Duvernay activity. This allowed production (and reserves) to grow 6 per cent year-over-year - even with lower WTI prices.
“With slower activity generally across North America, PrairieSky seems to be defying the trend and with a small dividend bump, and active NCIB program continuing, the company is signaling that they expect this momentum to continue.”
* Scotia’s Kevin Fisk to $31 from $30 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We expect a modest positive share price reaction due to the strong performance of PSK’s Clearwater, Mannville, and Duvernay royalty lands,” said Mr. Fisk.
In other analyst actions:
* After hosting the management team of Montreal-based video streaming technology provider Haivision Systems Inc. (HAI-T) for “upbeat” meetings last week, Canaccord Genuity’s Robert Young upgraded its shares to “buy” from “speculative buy” with a $12 target, rising from $8, which is the current average.
“The discussions revolved primarily around Haivision’s near- and medium-term outlook, exposure to defense spending and emerging opportunities, particularly around EdgeAI,” said Mr. Young. “Despite some macro-related spending uncertainties, Haivision’s confidence on its sales funnel and outlook is robust and supports its view of double-digit or greater growth over the next 3–5 years. We also believe that most of the visibility is coming from defense oriented opportunities. Thus, we are incrementally confident in an improving financial model in the coming periods and a growing level of exposure to an important secular theme. With two large and complicated acquisition integrations now complete, management emphasized that M&A will continue to be a key part of its medium-term growth strategy in the fragmented video communications space. That said, nothing is imminent and management prefers to show a clean, organic growth and positive FCF year in 2026 – another positive, in our view. Management reiterated its $150-million-plus revenue and 50-per-cent EBITDA growth targets in 2026, and a path to 20-per-cent EBITDA margin as early as 2027. A growing defense profile and more confidence on the forecast supports our positive thesis on the stock."
* Incorporating a “softer” 2026 operating outlook into his forecast, leading to a lower EBITDA projection, National Bank’s Shane Nagle cut his Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX-T) target to $75 from $82.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $76.50.
“We maintain our Outperform rating which is based on a discounted valuation, improving risk profile and surfacing value from the upcoming IPO of North American assets. Advancing exploration at Fourmile represents a significant value driver and given the previously announced resolution of Loulo-Gounkoto, supports a further re-rating,” said Mr. Nagle.
* Following the close of its US$61-million bought deal financing, Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur bumped his Integra Resources Corp. (ITR-X) target to $9 from $8 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $9.11.
“Integra’s producing asset is the Florida Canyon mine in Nevada. In addition, ITR plans to use cash flow from Florida Canyon to develop the DeLamar project in Idaho (a lower-risk jurisdiction with a Governor that is pro-mining, and near infrastructure) and the Nevada North project in Nevada (another lower risk jurisdiction) to create a multi-asset U.S. producer. Given the lower jurisdictional risk, potential for resource and production growth, and current valuation, we rate the shares Outperform,” he said.
* Resuming coverage following its $69-million bought deal convertible debt offering, Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho raised his Diversified Royalty Corp. (DIV-T) target to $4.50 from $4 with a “buy” rating. The average is $4.38.
“We have updated our model to reflect the revised royalty payments from AIR MILES (AM), Sutton and BarBurrito. This offering replenishes DIV’s acquisition facility capacity, giving it plenty of dry powder to pursue accretive franchise acquisitions. DIV is scheduled to report 4Q25 results on March 19,” he said.
“Our investment thesis is predicated on: (1) DIV’s high-quality franchise revenue stream with acquisition upside; (2) a royalty structure which enables successful franchisors to monetize their EBITDA without foregoing future upside; and (3) the attractive 7.1-per-cent dividend yield.”
* Ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 27, Desjardins Securities’ Brent Stadler reduced his TransAlta Corp. (TA-T) target to $18 from $19 with a “hold” rating. The average is $24.50.
“We are expecting a weaker quarter driven largely by benign pricing volatility and have lowered our 4Q25 estimates with our EBITDA estimate now 6 per cent below the street. Additionally, we have taken the opportunity to increase our hydro discount rate to better reflect current market sentiment which reduced our target ... We maintain our Hold rating as we look for clarity on datacentres in Alberta and the potential value creation for TA,” said Mr. Stadler.