Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
TD Cowen analyst Vince Valentini sees the potential return on BCE Inc.’s (BCE-T) new 300-megawatt artificial-intelligence data centre outside Regina as “attractive,” leading him to raise his revenue, earnings and free cash flow projections for 2028.
“We are positive on this under promise and overdeliver execution,” he added.
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With Monday’s announcement, BCE updates its 2026 guidance to reflect $1.3-billion in new capital expenditure allocation with its 2028 expectations updated to “reflect the full run rate of revenue ($500-million) and EBITDA ($400-million), which is anticipated on a run rate basis by the end of 2027.”
Keeping his “buy” rating for the company’s shares, Mr. Valentini bumped his target to $41 from $40. The average on the Street is $37.68.
“Our TP remains based on 2028 estimates (less a 15-per-cent time-value discount), so adding both the incremental EBITDA, and the incremental debt (via new capex) has pushed our target up $1.00,” he explained. “The simple math is that $400M in EBITDA at target multiple of 7.6 times (on wireline segment EBITDA) equals $3.04-billion in EV. Subtract $1.7-billion in new capex/debt (one could potentially deduct only $1.3-billion owing to customer prepayments funding some of the project, but we are choosing to be more cautious with the quick math), and one gets $1.34-billion in equity value creation within two years. Discount back a year, and divide by shares outstanding, and the TP impact equates to $1.24 per BCE share. With rounding, our target has increased $1.00.
“One could also argue that this solid evidence of execution on DC growth should push the target multiple higher for BCE. We currently use a base multiple of 8.0 times on wireline EBITDA at Bell (which declines to 7.6x after bond yield adjustments), which is slightly below 8.25 times used for TELUS. We acknowledge that improved growth visibility could justify an increased multiple for BCE, but we do not want to make that move today because we want to wait to see how the current elevated competitive intensity in the wireless industry plays out over the next few weeks.”
He added: “We see ample upside to support our BUY recommendation, as management executes on its strategy to drive 2025A-2028E revenue and EBITDA growth of 2.5-4.5 per cent and 3-4 per cent, respectively. We believe some investors will still be attracted to BCE’s yield despite the recent cut.”
Elsewhere, others making revisions include:
* Scotia’s Maher Yaghi to $41 from $39.50 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“Given the announced deal metrics and the 10-year initial contract term, we view this announcement as accretive to our target,” said Mr. Yaghi. “While on paper the deal could add about $2.00-$2.50/share in the long term, we have increased our target by only $1.50/share to handicap potential cost overruns and delays in delivery time. Upside remains if BCE can contract the remaining 430 MW of power it has access to, potentially providing an additional $3.00-$3.50/share. A couple of points worth mentioning: (1) the 20-per-cent IRR on the deal looks very attractive. Those kinds of returns resemble more those associated with stabilized colocation data centres and not wholesale deals with Neocloud operators; and (2) the 10-year term of the contracts is much longer than the four to five years typical of new AI large builds. Both, if realized, are a testament to strong execution by the management team. The timeline to completion, in our view, could be aggressive and will be worth monitoring as it will affect overall returns and time to deleveraging. Client quality risk is mitigated by the 10-year lease term but should also be monitored.”
* RBC’s Drew McReynolds to $39 from $38 with an “outperform” rating.
“We view the newly-announced 300 MW data centre as an incremental positive with the major boxes being ticked with respect to project economics, risk, returns and upside optionality for BCE. Factoring in the impact, our price target increases,” said Mr. McReynolds.
* Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil to $42 from $40 with a “buy” rating.
“[Monday’s] 300MW data centre announcement leaves us with three key takeaways: (1) It is possible to generate highly attractive returns from an infrastructure-like investment in AI without compromising deleveraging plans; (2) AI infrastructure is turning into a credible avenue of growth for the sector; and (3) BCE is positioning itself as a key player in sovereign AI with access to power, fibre assets and B2B relationships,” he said.
ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Frederico Gomes thinks Canopy Growth Corp.’s (WEED-T) $125-million acquisition of MTL Cannabis Corp. will accelerate its path to positive adjusted EBITDA.
Citing “the accelerated profitability timeline, potential for integration outperformance, and current market valuation that is approximately in line with [his] fair value estimate,” he upgraded his rating for Canopy shares to “outperform” from “sector perform” following the close of the deal on Monday.
“Over the last 12 months, MTL generated $81.0-million in net revenue and $14.8-million in adj. EBITDA with a healthy 52.1-per-cent gross margin,” he said. “Although we believe the sustainability of these metrics could be impacted by changes in the reimbursement cap for Canadian medical cannabis starting April 1, 2026, even a lower level of contribution from MTL would still be significantly accretive to Canopy’s existing profile (with an LTM adj. EBITDA loss of $23.1-million and 26.9-per-cent gross margin).
“We now anticipate Canopy reaching positive adj. EBITDA by Q2/FY27e (one quarter ahead of our previous expectation) and achieving positive adj. EBITDA for the full fiscal year. Strategically, Management expects the deal to secure a leading position in the Canadian medical cannabis market while leveraging MTL’s 19,500kg annual cultivation capacity to bolster high-quality domestic and international supply. Further upside is expected from $10mm in targeted annualized synergies within 18 months via COGS and SG&A efficiencies. ”
Pointing to the increased share count and cash consideration from the transaction, Mr. Gomes maintained a $1.40 target. The average is $1.89.
“We expect the MTL acquisition to accelerate Canopy’s path to positive adj. EBITDA in FY2027e. However, we expect the company will remain FCF negative through FY2028e, reaching a positive inflection point only in FY2029e. This extended timeline for positive FCF, which could be pulled forward by faster-than-expected international growth or realization of synergies, supports our Sector Perform rating. Additionally, we view potential U.S. regulatory shifts (notably, rescheduling) as a major catalyst that could enhance Canopy’s valuation,” he added.
When Groupe Dynamite Inc. (GRGD-T) reports its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on April 1, National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar expects all metrics to be “strong” and predicts “solid fiscal 2026 sales albeit moderating.”
“GRGD indicated that same-store sales growth for the first 9 weeks of Q4/F25 was 30.8 per cent,” he said. “Bloomberg ALTD data suggest continued strength in the final 4 weeks of Q4/F25 (beyond the quarter, Bloomberg data suggests ongoing strong trends). NBCM F2025 estimates are at the high end of GRGD’s F2025 sssg guidance of 26.5-27.0 per cent (NBCM is 26.9 per cent).
“Apparel retailer commentary suggests consumer spending momentum improved sequentially, albeit pricing and promotions remain a key focus. We expect resilient trends at GRGD (resonating brand and consumer that has accepted price increases). NBCM projects solid growth in F2026, albeit slower year-over-year due to tough comparables (NBCM models F2025 sssg of 26.9 per cent).”
Mr. Shreedhar is currently projected quarterly earnings per share for the Montreal-based clothing retailer of 66 cents, which is a penny above the consensus expectation and up 33 cents during the same period in fiscal 2024. He attributes that 103-per-cent EPS growth to “double-digit sales growth (double-digit sssg, e-commerce, and net new store openings in the last 12 months, etc.), gross margin expansion, SG&A leverage and lower interest expense, partly offset by higher D&A.”
His same-store sales growth projection of 31.0 per cent is a notable gain from 9.5 per cent a year ago, and it leads to significant jumps in revenue (estimate $375-million versus $272-million) and EBITDA ($136-million versus $79-million).
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for its shares, Mr. Shreedhar bumped his target to $101 from $100. The average is $103.71.
“We maintain a favourable disposition on GRGD,” he said. “Investment in GRGD is differentiated by strong financial metrics, with an EBITDA margin and ROIC that is the highest in our coverage universe (LTM [last 12-month] EBITDA margin of 34.8 per cent and ROIC of 50.5 per cent).”
“GRGD trades at 17.0 times our NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA and 29.7 times our NTM EPS. For reference ATZ [Aritzia], the best Canadian comparable peer, trades at 15.3 times consensus NTM EBITDA (adjusted for IFRS) and 28.4 times consensus NTM EPS.”
While tariff-related disruptions “remain a headwind (particularly as it relates to the Canadian Industrial market), RBC Dominion Securities analyst Arthur Nagorny thinks Mattr Corp. (MATR-T) is “positioned for underlying progress through 2026 as it executes on its facility transitions, with an improvement in the operating backdrop providing upside potential (particularly as it relates to oilfield activity).”
On March 12, the Toronto-based global materials technology company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that topped the Street’s expectations and introduced its outlook for the current year, which includes flat to modestly lower year-over-year growth in both revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
“Overall, we believe the guide is likely a conservative starting point given the various green shoots across the business (most notably the improving oil price backdrop, which has the potential to lift North American well completion activity as we progress through 2026; other commodity prices also supportive), though H1 comps will be weighed on by tariff-related headwinds (that said, mitigating actions remain underway, such as the pivot of Shawflex sales from the Canadian Industrial market to Canadian/U.S. Utilities),” said Mr. Nagorny. “Overall, we believe the business is moving in the right direction and continue to see Mattr as being well-positioned to execute on its facility transitions (Xerxes + Flexpipe sales/production expected to grow and DSG-Canusa Adj. EBITDA expected to improve in 2026; $10-million of MEO [modernization, expansion and optimization] costs in H1/25 will also not recur).”
In a client report titled Moving in the right direction, Mr. Nagorny called its AmerCable business, which was acquired from Nexans USA Inc. for US$280-million in late 2024, “a particular bright spot in the quarter” after its results coming in ahead of his estimates. He attributed the beat to higher copper prices, which were a “modest tailwind to revenue, with EBIT benefiting from volume/production efficiencies).” He also noted Mattr is “now beginning to invest in the business for 20-per-cent incremental capacity by 2028.
“The acquisition of AmerCable checks many of the right boxes as it increases Mattr’s exposure to the U.S. wire and cable market,
marks the company’s entrance into the medium voltage space, is margin-accretive (and more than 40-per-cent accretive to EPS), and improves Mattr’s overall earnings cyclicality," he said. “Further, we view the purchase multiple of approximately 5 times EV/EBITDA favorably, noting that this is prior to any synergies (we see potential for meaningful revenue synergies over the coming years).”
Expected debt repayment and internal investments to emerge as near-term priorities, he raised his target by $1 to $10, keeping n “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $9.67.
“We believe management has done a good job of repositioning Mattr from a predominantly oil & gas focused company to a more industrials-oriented business over the last few years,” he added. “The company has sold off most of its oil & gas subsidiaries since late 2020, with the sale of Thermotite (completed mid-2025) marking the completion of the company’s strategic review. Today, four of Mattr’s five core businesses are exposed to industrial end-markets, which we believe are substantially less volatile than the company’s historical Pipeline & Pipe Services segment businesses (58 per cent of revenue in 2019). Despite this repositioning, Mattr’s valuation is meaningfully below peers. As Mattr executes on its organic growth initiatives, we see potential for the valuation discount vs. peers to close over time.”
Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme also increased his target to $10 from $9 with a “hold” rating.
“Q4 EBITDA was above consensus, but MATR calls for 2026 revenue and EBITDA to be flat to slightly down year-over-year (vs. pre-qtr. cons. at flat year-over-year revenue, and very slightly higher year-over-year EBITDA, while we were higher still). We like MATR’s LT prospects, but see upside in the stock as likely to be limited until more meaningful y/y EBITDA growth materializes, which we do not expect until Q3/26 at the earliest,” said Mr. Tupholme.
Even though Westshore Terminals Investment Corp. (WTE-T) fourth quarter was “mixed” and fell short of his expectations, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Walter Spracklin thinks the “outlook remains positive” after the Vancouver-based company raised its throughput guidance for the current year.
He said the increase to 25.5 million tonnes from 25 million tonnes previously validates his previous view that “prior targets were conservative (and issues related to the Berth 1 fire behind them).”
“While we have adjusted our estimates to reflect the lower loading rate guidance, we remain comfortable being slightly above management’s targets on throughput,” added Mr. Spracklin. “Moreover, the potash project remains on track for a mid-to-late-2027 ramp, with project risk declining as we trend closer to first shipment. With the company successfully navigating near-term operational challenges while maintaining progress on strategic growth projects, we remain constructive on Westshore.”
After the bell on Friday, Westshore reported fourth-quarter EBITDA of $22-million, falling short of the analyst’s expectations. He blamed the miss on lower throughput from the recommissioning of Berth 1 of its Delta port facility following a fire last summer, which was completed in early December.
“Loading rate guidance was reduced marginally to $13.00/tonne (from $13.25), reflecting the expected impact of weaker thermal coal prices and CAD depreciation,” he added. “We are maintaining our 2026 tonnage estimate at 26Mt (0.5Mt above guidance) but reducing our loading rate to $13.00/tonne (from $13.34) in line with guidance.
“Potash project on schedule; long-term opportunity intact. The potash infrastructure project remains on track with ramp-up commencing midto late-2027. Despite the previously announced project cost overruns of approximately $225-million, Westshore’s funding position remains solid with $125.9-million in cash, operating cash flows, and a $165-million credit facility. Once operational, the project represents a meaningful revenue diversification with 2.5Mt minimum annual throughput extending through 2051, reducing cyclical coal dependence.”
With forecast changes to loading rates driven by foreign exchange and commodity price moves, Mr. Spracklin cut his 2026 EBITDA estimate alongside an increase his 2027 expectation based on “increased confidence in the potash throughput ramp.” That led him to increase his target for Westshore shares to $34 from $29, which is the current average, reiterating an “outperform” rating.
“Consistent with the contract terms, our model extends to 2051, over which time we assume potash ramps to 16Mt and thermal coal is entirely phased out (i.e., assuming a long-term 16Mt/16Mt of met coal/potash split),” he added. “We consider the entire phase-out of thermal coal (currently 36 per cent of throughput) a positive due to the long-term uncertainty around this energy source — as well as a significant sustainability positive event. We believe both are key positives but reflected in the shares at current valuation.”
National Bank Financial analyst Baltej Sidhu sees Tantalus Systems Holding Inc. (GRID-T) “well positioned to benefit” as utilities enter a structural, multi-year investment cycle for their distribution grids.
“Tantalus Systems is emerging as a key enabler of modern distribution grid intelligence, providing a capital-efficient, deeply embedded, and differentiated platform that enhances operational visibility and resilience for utilities,” he added. “We believe sustained customer adoption, an increasing software mix, and recurring revenue growth position the company to deliver expanding margins, higher-quality and more durable earnings, and associated potential for multiple re-rating.”
In a client report released Tuesday titled Tantalizing Upside in GRID Modernization, Mr. Sidhu initiated coverage of the Burnaby, B.C.-based company with an “outperform” rating, believing “structural growth tailwinds underpin meaningful upside.”
‘Grid modernization is transitioning from optional to necessary across a large utility base, with a sizable TAM where even modest long-term share capture supports compelling growth,“ he said. ” Tantalus’ capital-light, deeply integrated platform drives sticky adoption, strong retention, and recurring expansion across its growing utility customer base. GRID’s TRUSense Platform represents the next leg of growth, expanding its TAM and platform depth, driving incremental device penetration and higher-margin software growth.
“A scalable, hardware-enabled recurring revenue model driving margin expansion, operating leverage, and multiple expansion.”
Mr. Sidhu also thinks incremental upside to his base case could be driven by the company’s “takeout potential, AI-driven load growth accelerating grid modernization, and further penetration of the InvestorOwned Utility (IOU) market via TRUSense.”
He set a target of $7 per share, matching the average on the Street and reflecting a return to target of 69 per cent.
“Our target price is derived using a 70/30 weighting of a DCF analysis (approximately 10-per-cent discount rate and 3-per-cent terminal growth) and a multiple-based approach,” Mr. Sidhu explained. “We apply a 3.5-times multiple to our 2027E, a premium to the 2.7 times peer average, reflecting the company’s growth inflection and comparatively stronger structural tailwinds that support a more durable demand profile. The weighting toward the DCF better captures the long-tail demand that GRID should benefit from.
“We view Tantalus shares as attractively priced, trading at 2.2 times our 2027 estimates versus 2.5 times for gridhardware and meter OEMs, and 3.1 times for IoT-enabled hardware peers, which we view as the more relevant benchmark. On a growth-adjusted basis, GRID screens as the most compelling name in the peer set, with a multiple per unit of growth of 0.12 times compared with 0.36 times for traditional hardware peers and 0.31 times for IoT-enabled peers.”
In other analyst actions:
* Citing its valuation following a 31-per-cent decline since a November double downgrade, Mizuho’s Maheep Mandloi upgraded Guelph, Ont.-based Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ-Q) to “neutral” from “underperform” while lowering his target to US$19, matching the average, from US$31.
* Paradigm Capital’s Don MacLean initiated coverage of Belo Sun Mining Corp. (BSX-T) with a “speculative buy” rating and 12-month target of $5.50 per share. He’s currently the lone analyst covering the Toronto-based company.
“Belo Sun’s Volta Grande is one of the sector’s most attractive large-scale development projects, combining multi-million-ounce scale, access to low-cost hydro power, excellent exploration potential and feasibility-level technical derisking,” he said. “The project has been constrained for years by legal challenges, with limited site activity since its key Installation License (LI) was suspended in 2017. On February 13, a federal regional court ruling re-instated the LI, allowing the company to re-engage government agencies, communities and on-site work. While legal appeals are expected, we believe the risk of a project-stopping outcome is low relative to the potential reward. At $1.36/share, BSX trades at 0.09‒0.10 times our NAV estimate at US$4,900/oz, a level we view as inconsistent with Volta Grande’s scale, quality and proximity to development. Based on our experience, delivery of an updated Feasibility Study, initial steps toward development and incremental legal clarity should support a rerating toward 0.25‒0.35 times NAV at US$4,900/oz, with further upside as uncertainty fades. We believe Belo Sun is a highly attractive acquisition candidate."
* National Bank’s Ahmed Abdullah raised his target for shares of CCL Industries Inc. (CCL.B-T) to $102 from $100, keeping an “outperform” rating, in response to the $151-million acquisition of Sleever International Company SA and its subsidiaries, a family-owned shrink sleeve label provider, as well as the introduction of his quarterly 2026 financial estimates. The average is $100.43.
“So far the impact from the Middle East conflict on CCL has been limited,” said Mr. Abdullah. “This will entirely depend on the severity and the time it will take to end the war and the global economy returning to normalized shipping patterns. If this drags on, we may have to reassess our model assumptions for any knock on effects related to rising energy costs (on CCL and economy in general) and potential trade route disruptions.”
* After a “difficult” fourth quarter but believing its fiscal 2026 outlook is “positive,” TD Cowen’s Vince Valentini reduced his Toronto-based digital media solution provider Illumin Holdings Inc (ILLM-T) target to $1.25 from $1.50, keeping a “hold” rating, while Ventum’s Rob Goff moved his target to $1 from $1.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $1.63.
“ILLM underperformed our revenue and margin expectations in Q4. However, we have confidence in: 1) Management’s focus on larger spending clients leading to revenue uplift; 2) Opex being held in check through FY26; and 3) Sales pipeline is robust which should lead to less earnings volatility as they obtain more logos,” said Mr. Valentini.