Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank of Canada Capital Markets analyst Patrick Kenny upgraded TransAlta Corp. (TA-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform”, citing an attractive risk-reward profile given the stock’s recent weakness and several catalysts ahead that were outlined in the utility’s investor day.
“Since downgrading TA to sector perform in early November, the stock is down 22%, and no longer reflects any value, in our view, from its 230 MW Phase 1 Keephills opportunity (worth ~$1/sh), US$600mln Centralia conversion project (worth ~$2/sh), or any rebound in forward Alberta power prices towards $75-$85/MWh (currently <$60/MWh),” Mr. Kenny said in a note to clients.
His price target remains at C$22.
At its investor day, TransAlta outlined its path towards delivering double digit growth through 2029 “on the back of 900-1,300 MW of net load growth in Alberta, driving a recovery in power prices towards at least the mid-$80s per MWh, combined with incremental contracted cash flows coming online from the US$600mln Centralia conversion and 230 MW Keephills Phase I data centre project. Overall, TA highlighted 2029 adj. EBITDA guidance of ~$1,350-$1,800 mln (NBCM: $1,364 mln) from 2026e unchanged guidance levels of ~$1,000 mln (i.e., 11-22% compounded annual growth rate),” he said.
“TA remains focused on reaching definitive agreements in 2026 on its ~230 MW PPA at Keephills with CPP/Brookfield, while also capitalizing on its coal-to-gas (CTG) units, designed to operate above ~90% capacity factor. Longer-term, TA is pursuing repowering opportunities at its ~800 MW Keephills 1 and ~800 MW Sundance 5 units, while assessing greenfield development on the ~460 MW Flipi combined cycle project, subject to long-term contracts. On theUS$600mln Centralia gas conversion front, Puget Sound Energy submitted a rate case in Q1/26 combined with permits, preliminary engineering and initial cost estimates, with TA continuing to anticipate a final investment decision in early 2027,” he added.
Elsewhere, ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Nate Heywood modestly raised his price target to C$28 from C$27 while reiterating an “outperform” rating. The higher price target was a result of increasing his long-term estimates following the investor day presentation.
“The anticipated increase in free cash flow and growing debt capacity should further support financial flexibility for TA to pursue a broad mix of greenfield, brownfield and accretive M&A opportunities,” Mr. Heywood said.
BMO Capital Markets analyst Kevin O’Halloran upgraded First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG-T) to “outperform” from “market perform”, noting the company is trading at a historically attractive valuation and with catalysts ahead later this year. His price target is C$35.
“We view AG shares as discounted compared to historical trading multiples, with shares trading at 2.2x net asset value and 10x next 12 months CFO [cash flow from operations] at our updated commodity price deck, vs. historical multiples often exceeding 3x NAV and 15x cash flow,” Mr. O’Halloran said in a note to clients.
“In addition, we see value-surfacing catalysts in 2026 including expanding processing capacity at Santa Elena and Gatos and evaluating restart potential at Jerritt Canyon and development of newly discovered deposits at Santa Elena,” he said.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Jimmy Shan upgraded Go Residential REIT (GO-U-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform”, saying the stock now offers “asymmetric risk-reward.” He dropped his price target, however, by US$1 to US$13.50.
“Post-IPO price action and investor rotation, we see limited downside given valuation level that is now at a discount to U.S. peers (leverage neutral), to private market and to recent privatization of its closest comp,” Mr. Shan said in a note to clients. “On the other hand, despite equity dilution and leverage not improving, we see upside in better than IPO forecast results (Q4 +12%), relatively stronger fundamentals in Manhattan, and GO proving out its acquisition thesis while gaining scale, both essential for newly-listed small caps to outperform.”
National Bank analyst Baltej Sidhu reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and C$39 price target on Boralex Inc. (BLX-T) following a report from Bloomberg News Monday quoting unnamed sources saying that the company is weighing strategic options, including a potential take-private transaction.
“Prior to the Bloomberg article, the stock was trading at an implied IRR [internal rate of return] of ~10.5%, well above its historical range of 8–9%, while comparable assets in private markets are suggested to transact at 7–9%, reinforcing our view that public market valuation is not fully reflecting the quality of its asset base and growth pipeline. This is incrementally notable at time when recent geopolitical events reinforce the need for renewable energy (energy security). In our view, this disconnect has elevated the likelihood of private capital stepping in should the shares fail to re-rate in the public markets," Mr. Sidhu said in a note to clients.
He added, “With Boralex shares having traded flat to modestly down over the past year (prior to the article), the current valuation backdrop appears supportive of the process. On a trailing 12 month basis, the average implied IRR of the company is ~10.5%, which we view as very attractive for financial sponsors (infrastructure funds). As such, we would not be surprised by both the company’s willingness to explore alternatives and by the presence of interested counterparties.”
“From a broader industry perspective, the renewable infrastructure space has seen elevated levels of consolidation and asset recycling activity over the past 18 months. Notably, North American peers such as Innergex Renewable Energy and AES Corporation, have both been taken private by private equity investors, underscoring the appetite from infrastructure and pension capital for scaled, long-duration contracted platforms,” he said.
Boralex issued a press release this morning confirming that its board of directors has formed a special committee to review and recommend strategic alternatives.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Katie Lachapelle raised her price target on Lithium Argentina AG (LAR-T) to C$17.75 from C$17.50, commenting that the firm is continuing “its trajectory as a low-cost and undervalued growth story.”
She maintained a “buy” rating in the wake of fourth quarter results and said Lithium Argentina remains Canaccord’s best idea for exposure to lithium producers. “It’s a unique opportunity to own an inexpensive producer relative to peers, with exposure to a large growth pipeline that many other North American producers do not have,” she said.
Ms. Lachapelle said she lowered her 2026 cost assumptions and now model an average cash cost of just over $5,500/t.
“Additionally, we believe LAR should have minimal to no exposure to the conflict in the Middle East in terms of costs (potentially slightly higher diesel costs, but this isn’t material). We tweak quarterly production assumptions but continue to model 38.1kt of full-year production (vs. 35-40kt guidance). We note that based on our cost curve data, Cauchari-Olaroz now ranks in the top 5 globally in terms of lowest cost lithium carbonate production, which isn’t being priced into its valuation currently, in our view,” she added.
Elsewhere, TD Cowen analyst Craig Hutchison raised his price target on Lithium Argentina, which also trades in the U.S., to US$9 from US$7 and reiterated a “buy” rating.
“We believe 2026 will be a catalyst-rich year for LAR, as the company is expected to deliver further production growth and improvements in cash operating costs at Cauchari-Olaroz, receive RIGI approval for Stage 2, complete the closing of the PPG JV with Ganfeng and receive PPG RIGI approval,” Mr. Hutchison said.
Raymond James analyst Michael W. Freeman slashed his price target on Vitalhub Corp. (VHI-T) to C$11 from C$15 as he updated his estimates following year-end results. He is maintaining an “outperform” rating.
Headline numbers for the fourth quarter were “solid looking,” said Mr. Freeman, including big year-over-year acquisition-driven growth figures. However, there were negative trend changes in its organic annual recurring revenue growth and free cash flow profile that may have spooked the market.
“While VHI will need to prove 4Q25’s somewhat soft organic growth and free cash flow prints were ephemeral with stronger 1Q and 2Q results (which we do anticipate), we continue to believe VHI is well-situated to execute its M&A-focused growth strategy ($119 mln cash + STI, $75 mln in available credit; multiple deals on the table), supported by strong signals of demand for its newly acquired products (Novari especially), good evidence of cross-selling, and some initial successes expanding Average Revenue Per User through the deployment of VHI’s first AI add-ons,” he said in a note to clients.
In other analyst actions:
CIBC Capital Markets initiated coverage on Jamieson Wellness Inc. (JWEL-T) with an “outperformer” rating and C$43 price target. “JWEL is a leader in the attractive vitamin, mineral, and supplement (VMS) industry, with a dominant market position in Canada and a growing international presence,” said analyst Ty Collin. “JWEL’s international strategy remains in an investment phase and carries some risks, but has a long runway for additional growth and margin expansion, in our view. We believe there is potential for modest valuation upside from strong execution, though this is not central to our thesis, and we see an attractive return profile for JWEL shares underpinned by mid-teens EPS growth, an improved cash flow profile, and a 2.7% dividend yield.”
Ventum Capital Markets initiated coverage on Kelt Exploration Ltd. (KEL-T) with a “buy” rating and C$12.50 price target. “Kelt has delivered solid growth over the past five years, which we expect to continue in 2026 and 2027. In addition, we see the company as self-funding in the current oil price environment, setting up the conditions for a re-rate on the valuation given the strong growth and positive free cash flow currently forecast,” said analyst Adam Gill.
Scotiabank downgraded Foran Mining Corp. (FOM-T) to “sector perform” from “sector outperform” while raising its price target to C$6.60 from C$6. It sees Foran Mining shares trading in-line with the implied acquisition offer from Eldorado Gold.
TD Cowen trimmed its price target on CAE Inc. (CAE-T) to C$53 from C$54 but reiterated a “buy” rating. “We view current valuation as discounting recent macro challenges without factoring in upside potential for margins, return on capital employed, leverage and earnings quality. Execution of CAE’s transformation plan is expected to drive greater appreciation for the value in the CAE business,” said TD Cowen analyst Tim James.