Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analysts Dan Payne and Travis Wood call the recent flow of news affecting Canada’s energy sector over the past month “unprecedented, with extreme volatility and nonstop news flow whip sawing investors and markets by the hour,” leading them to raise their target prices for stocks in their coverage universe by an average of 35 per cent.
“Venezuela and Greenland headlines feel like a lifetime ago (as does sub- US$60/bbl), with the war with Iran and the potential knock-on effects to the global economy dominating mind share (the most impactful supply-side event in recent memory, if not ever),” they said.
“Recent events in the Middle East have been a crash course on the value of energy security, with 20 per cent of global crude and LNG supply (along with other key commodities) impacted by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran (not to mention the strikes on energy infrastructure by both sides). As a result of the conflict and subsequent closure, commodity prices have skyrocketed, with prompt crude prices settling above US$100/bbl, up more than US$40/bbl since the beginning of the year.”
In a client report released Tuesday, the analysts recommend investors should be “looking past the noise at a compelling set-up.”
“We can see that Canadian energy equities have closed the gap to their U.S. peers (ignoring the supermajors), with senior/integrated names posting the most significant expansion since the start of the year and Canadian oil names surpassing U.S. oil names by around 0.5 times on average (from a meaningful discount seen over the last few years),” explained Mr. Payne and Mr. Wood. “We attribute this strong relative outperformance to an increased appreciation for Canadian energy by investors and allies, driven by multiple egress expansion/optimization projects gaining traction (supported by abundance of reserves and low breakevens), combined with more favourable (or less punitive) policies. These dynamics support improved market access and energy security via long-term projects, attracting investors to revisit the Canadian energy sector. We believe this unfolding structural shift in geopolitics and energy markets, combined with depleting tier-1 inventory in U.S. shale, should continue to support favourable momentum, with Canadian equities sustaining a premium valuation moving forward.”
They emphasize energy equity moves have been “relatively muted” despite the “drastically” improved commodity price environment. The iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF (XEG-T) is “up only 16 per cent since the start of the conflict (while acknowledging that equities had been climbing in the lead-up to the war, up 42 per cent since Jan. 1st).”
Following an update to their commodity price projections, the analyst see “the space is extremely well positioned to continue to benefit from the commodity tailwinds, with 2026 and 2027 cash flow estimates up 47 per cent and 23 per cent on average, respectively, supporting attractive valuations in 2027.”
“This increase, compounded by issuers earning more premium valuations (which we think should be structural on a go-forward basis thanks to the relative attractiveness of Canadian energy vs. its peers), has led to a 35-per-cent increase to our target prices on average,” they said. “We highlight (in alphabetical order) CVE, HWX, SCR, SDE, SU, TNZ, TPZ, TVE and WCP screening positively across our coverage, offering compelling valuations alongside rate of operational improvement likely to compound significant value.”
“We are electing to shift our focus to further out along our outlook period, as we believe the commodity prices next year better reflect our longer-term view on the space. Recent events have exposed the fragility of global energy markets, and while we acknowledge this year’s pricing is extremely attractive, it is likely high-cycle pricing and more short term in nature. While the uptick in commodity prices will help bolster cash positions and reduce debt over the short term, we believe next year represents a more mid-cycle snapshot on the free cash generation potential of the coverage universe (we see US$70/bbl as the new floor). Our target multiples remain supported by historical multiples while we continue to provide premium valuations to those names that continue to outperform expectations and win on operational execution.”
For senior and integrated producers, the analysts’ target price adjustments are:
- Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH-T, “outperform”) to $12.50 from $9 (a change of 39 per cent). The average on the Street is $9.50, according to LSEG data.
- Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ-T, “sector perform”) to $90 from $59 (53 per cent). Average: $61.20.
- Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T, “outperform”) to $57 from $30 (90 per cent). Average: $35.38.
- Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T, “sector perform”) to $212 from $139 (53 per cent). Average: $128.45.
- Strathcona Resources Ltd. (SCR-T, “outperform”) to $68 from $41. Average: $37.60.
- Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T, “outperform”) to $118 from $85 (39 per cent). Average: $82.90.
"Despite the increase in crude prices (including a flattening of the forward curve), the set-up for the space next year remains very compelling, with our coverage universe trading at a 2027 estimated EV/DACF multiple of 6.2 times for the seniors, 3.8 times for the oil peers and 4.3 times for the gas peers (with FCF yields of 10 per cent, 12 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively),“ the analysts concluded. ”Largely as a result of the updated commodity price deck, our 2026 and 2027 cash flow estimates are up by 47 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively. This increase to next year’s cash flow estimates contribute the most to the changes to our target prices, with target prices moving 35 per cent higher on average. Our updated target prices imply a total return of 36 per cent, with our Outperform and Sector Perform names returning 40 per cent and 21 per cent on average, respectively."
Citi analyst Spiro Dounis sees TC Energy Corp.’s (TRP-T) stake in the Bruce Power complex as its “largest single opportunity” and estimates it comprises 25 per cent of the company’s shares, which “implies the remaining business is trading at a 1-time discount to current levels.”
“Bruce Power is a unique asset in our Midstream coverage – offering uniquely durable cash flows and growth opportunities over the next 20+ years,” he said in a client report. “The asset serves 30 per cent of Ontario’s power needs and its expansion is critical to meeting load growth through 2050. We estimate three projects could drive more than $60-billion (gross) of growth opportunities through 2050 and more than triple equity earnings to TRP. Specifically, the remainder of the MCR program, Project 2030, and the 4.8 GW Bruce C expansion, which would solidify Bruce Power as the largest nuclear power plant in the world.”
Mr. Dounis said the complex provides the “longest cash flow visibility” in his coverage universe, saying it “sounds like a superhero, but it’s a super asset.”
“Bruce Power’s contract duration and cash flow stability is unique among Midstream; Bruce Power effectively has no re-contracting risk for nearly 40 years – double that of long-haul transmission assets that typically sign 20-year contract terms,” he said. “The structure is also unique. Bruce Power is owned by TC Energy (48.4 per cent), OMERS Infrastructure, Power Workers’ Union, and the Society of Energy Professionals. The Province of Ontario leases the nuclear assets to Bruce Power who operates the facility and benefits from the economics without taking on nuclear technology/decommissioning risk directly.”
“Bruce Power’s contract with the IESO (2015) centers on a cost-recovery and regulated return contract model; the agreed base contract price is routinely adjusted to ensure a consistent return over the life of the asset. Three factors drive revenue increases: incremental investment, higher deemed power generation delivered, and O&M efficiency sharing.”
Currently Canada’s only private-sector nuclear generator, Bruce is likely to be looked upon as a key provider of the province’s surging power needs, according to Mr. Dounis.
“IESO estimates another 18GW of nuclear power will be required to support Ontario’s load growth through 2050 (up 75 per cent),” he said. “With limited large scale nuclear project proposals in the province, Bruce C’s 4.8GW project appears well positioned to capture this demand growth. An FID is likely a 2030+ event due to a multi-year permitting process that’s already underway.
“It’s a Large but Manageable Cost — We anticipate a 4-unit modular Bruce C project costing $60-billion (gross). That said, we only expect $7.4-billion allocable to TRP’s equity interest due to high financing capabilities. Furthermore, we expect the entire expansion to be funded at the project level while still generating distributions to TRP. Over the 10-15 year construction period, we still expect over $18-billion of distributions to TRP while funding the expansion. We believe TRP can earn a double-digit ROE while keeping power prices within the current power stack range.”
Maintaining his “neutral” rating for TC Energy shares, Mr. Dounis hiked his target to $95 from $86. The average on the Street is $87.58.
“TRP uniquely offers among the purest exposure to two of the fastest-growing segments in the energy markets: natural gas and power. We expect these secular macro tailwinds to drive mid-single-digit growth in the future. While these tailwinds are highly constructive for growth, elevated leverage and slightly slower growth than peers partially deflates. We believe TRP is largely receiving credit for its peer leading low volatility and exposure to strong, multi-decade tailwinds,” he added.
TD Cowen analyst Tim James thinks Magellan Aerospace Corp. (MAL-T) remains “a diversified aerospace investment opportunity with a strong balance sheet, industry tailwinds, attractive valuation and an increasing net cash position capable of providing incremental (not in our forecast) M&A driven growth.”
After the bell on Friday, the Mississauga-based manufacturer reported “strong” fourth-quarter 2025 with most key metrics exceeding Mr. James’s forecast, which he emphasized displayed “accelerating revenue and earnings growth, and the highest EBITDA margin (excl. nonrecurring) since 2020.”
Revenue jumped 16 per cent year-over-year to $278-million (versus his $268-million estimate), while earnings per share rose 27 per cent after excluding a remediation provision to 35 cents (versus 30 cents).
“Not surprisingly, the outlook is encouraging for both civil and defence business lines. Remaining supply chain/inflation risk the only watch item,” he added.
“We forecast EBITDA growth of 24 per cent in 2026 and a further 10 per cent in 2027 leading to EPS reaching $1.66 (2027E). Magellan’s valuation discount relative to comps remains high (6.6 times on forward EPS vs. 4.3 times trailing 5-yr avg). Target multiple of 7.5 times/16.0 times EBITDA/EPS compares to current 7.5 times/14.3 times. Our thesis assumes OEM supply chain impediments subside over the coming years, which, in combination with commercial aviation cyclical dynamics, strong defense backdrop, dividend upside, M&A opportunities, and b/s, should be a catalyst for normalizing/shrinking the discount and driving a higher share price.”
Keeping his “buy” rating, Mr. James, who is currently the lone analyst covering the stock, bumped his target to $25 from $24.
National Bank Financial analyst Zachary Evershed initiated coverage of AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. (AGTF-T) with an “outperform” recommendation, touting "a clear line of sight towards sustained organic EBITDA growth in the high single digits."
He said that view is “backed by our confidence in management’s ability to execute on its global strategy and supportive tailwinds in shifting consumer preferences for nutrient-dense foods, a growing middle class in emerging markets, and private label share growth.”
In early March, the Regina-based agrifood company controlled by Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T) raised $450-million in an initial public offering.
“While commodity exposure has historically translated to volatility in earnings, we highlight the consistency of AGT’s EBITDA in recent years despite the gyrations in pulse prices,” said Mr. Evershed. “Continued demonstration of this newfound stability, in combination with solid execution on the growth plan should contribute to a re-rating of the stock (with sub-0.5x leverage providing a safety net against any stumbles), and we see upside given the attractive current FCF yield of 7.0 per cent.”
In a client report titled Spaghetting exposure to rapidly growing global markets, the analyst focused on AGT’s vertical integration and scale, emphasizing “the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.” He also touted the company’s growth opportunities, believing it is “doubling down on winners with modular strategy.”
“AGT Foods is a globally diversified food company selling packaged foods, ingredients and milled grains and pulses to over 120 countries, operating through three core segments: 1) Packaged Foods & Ingredients (PF&I), producing consumer staple foods in retail-ready formats; 2) Value Added Processing (VAP), originating and processing pulse-based staple foods in bulk-retail formats; and 3) Distribution, a complementary segment acting as a distributor of primary and adjacent commodities,” said Mr. Evershed. “AGT’s business model is structured around vertical integration across the agricultural value chain, starting with direct relationships with farmers globally, allowing the company to secure quality supply and manage input costs. This sourcing capability feeds into its processing network, where AGT leverages its cumulative know-how and proprietary formulas to entrench itself within retailer and food security channels, ultimately creating a business whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
"PF&I is the main growth focus for the company through capacity additions to support two primary vectors: traditional pasta, and better-for-you (BFY) pasta and snack offerings. Traditional pasta capacity is scaling up in low-cost operating regions, namely Türkiye and India, while the BFY offering plays to protein and gluten-free themes. The new capacity additions rely on small incremental modular capex bites of $10-15 million, easily adjustable based on current demand conditions. Over the course of our initiation, we spent numerous hours with four experts independent of the company, with knowledge in different domains spanning store brand procurement, NGO food security tenders, and food R&D/commercialization; their commentary supported the magnitude of market tailwinds and feasibility of AGT’s growth plans."
A day after TD Cowen analyst Derek Lessard initiated coverage with a “hold” rating and $21 target, Mr. Evershed set a target for AGT shares of $26. The average is $25.50.
Elsewhere, others formalizing ratings and targets include:
* RBC’s Ryland Conrad with an “outperform” rating and $25 target.
“We believe AGT has repositioned the business with the right recipe to deliver steady value creation, supported by a lower risk profile and a growth outlook increasingly driven by less cyclical and higher-margin revenue streams. In our view, the shares are mispriced and the valuation discount to peers should narrow as AGT executes on its growth strategy,” said Mr. Conrad.
* ATB Cormark’s Kyle McPhee with an “outperform” rating and $25 target.
“We think the recent bout of post-IPO share price weakness leaves AGT’s valuation below appropriate levels, on an absolute and relative basis,” said Mr. McPhee. “We focus on cash earnings and FCF metrics for valuation, notably given AGT’s cost-of-carry below the EBITDA line that is linked to the working capital intensity of the business model. AGT currently trades at 9.7 time 2026 price-to-maintenance FCF per share (i.e., cash P/E).
“Share price upside should be powered by (1) cash earnings growth that appears to be durable for the PF&I segment (reflected in our forecast and target price), (2) business mix shift towards the most attractive PF&I segment that may justify multiple expansion over time (somewhat captured in our target price that is equivalent to 13.0 times/12.4 times 2026/2027 price-to-maintenance FCF per share), and (3) deployment of excess capital generation for accretive growth beyond normal-course growth capex benefits (not considered in our forecast or target price, and excess capital should be accumulating as of 2026).”
* Scotia’s John Zamparo with a “sector perform” rating and $23 target.
“AGT has made credible progress in reshaping into a higher-growth, lower-volatility, lower leverage business,” said Mr. Zamparo. “On the other hand, AGT has significant Middle East exposure, modest EBITDA growth of late, and low liquidity. In our view, current valuation is not quite sufficiently attractive to outweigh these challenges. Our $23.00 target is based on 14.5 times 2027E EPS, which we believe is the most appropriate metric as it removes ambiguity on the treatment of structured trade finance, and is consistent with most of our coverage universe. This represents multiple expansion from 12.7 times NTM [next 12-month] P/E currently. Our target implies 9.3 times EV/EBITDA. We acknowledge potential for an immediate re-rating (to say, 16.5 times, or 10.3 times, respectively), worth $3.00 to the stock, upon a clear resolution to the war in the Gulf. We would prefer to see such an outcome or for AGT to produce multiple quarters of predictable EBITDA growth before becoming more constructive.”
* Raymond James’ Steve Hansen with an “outperform” rating and $26 target.
“In short, we believe AGT represents a compelling global food platform poised to benefit from robust macro trends (population growth, shifting diets, private label) and a low-risk modular growth strategy expected to deliver improved earnings quality/resilience, accelerating free cash flow, and strong shareholder returns,” said Mr. Hansen.
Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier is predicting better-than-expected volumes for Canadian railway companies in the first quarter is “unlikely to translate into earnings due to FX, fuel and mix headwinds.”
“While macro uncertainty has increased since January amid the Iran war, we expect both rails to reaffirm full-year guidance,” he added. “Recall that 1Q was widely expected to be the most difficult comp of the year, with FX, fuel and carbon tax yield headwinds set to moderate into 2Q, while CP also begins lapping last year’s IT cutover disruptions. Finally, although rising fuel prices create near-term pressure due to surcharge lag, higher diesel costs should improve intermodal economics and support truck-to-rail conversion.”
In a client note released Tuesday, Mr. Poirier maintained his estimates for Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T), emphasizing a “strong volume start to the year, driven by a record grain crop and domestic intermodal market share win.”
“CN delivered RTM [revenue ton mile] growth of 2.9 per cent year-over-year through the first 12 weeks of the quarter, meaningfully ahead of our 1Q26 estimate of down 0.2 per cent,” he said. “The outperformance reflects strength in grain and intermodal, as well as the benefit of lapping an easy winter weather comp. Intermodal performance is notable given lapping of 1Q25 tariff pull-forward activity and includes a domestic market share win and strong Gemini volumes at Rupert, up 20 per cent through February. That said, yield pressures are expected to offset the volume upside. FX, fuel and unfavourable mix remain headwinds in 1Q, prompting a reduction in our 1Q yield forecast to down 4.1 per cent (from 0.4 per cent) and leaving our 1Q EPS estimate unchanged at $1.79.”
For rival Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T), Mr. Poirier made a modest reduction to his quarterly projections, “despite better-than-expected volumes, as the upside is expected to be offset by meaningful, but temporary, FX, fuel and product mix headwind.”
“Quarter-to-date volumes are up 1.2 per cent year-over-year vs our forecast of down 0.1 per cent, driven mainly by grain and stronger-than-expected intermodal performance,” he explained. “Network operations remain solid, with dwell improving vs a year ago and velocity increasing both year over year and sequentially. However, the volume upside is insufficient to offset FX, fuel and mix headwinds. We now forecast 1Q yield of negative 4.0 per cent (vs 0.0 per cent previously), fully offsetting the volume beat and lowering our 1Q EPS estimate to $1.07 (from $1.14).”
Mr. Poirier cut his target for CP shares by $1 to $129 with a “buy” rating. The average is $127.32.
He kept a $156 target, exceeding the $153.28 average, and “buy” recommendation for CN shares.
In other analyst actions:
* After adjusting his forecast following its recent $173-million equity offering, Raymond James’ Frederic Bastien raised his Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) target to $44 from $41 with a “market perform” rating. Other changes include: CIBC’s Krista Friesen to $45 from $44 with a “neutral” rating and Stifel’s Ian Gillies to $44 from $38.75 with a “hold” rating. The average is $42.96.
“These revisions reflect incremental contributions from the acquisitions of Duna Services and KNX, additional cash that strengthens our growth outlook, and a more refined valuation of Aecon Utilities. That said, at 10 times our 2026 EBITDA estimate, we believe the stock already prices in these positives, as well as much of the expected benefit from infrastructure and nuclear investment tailwinds. Accordingly, our neutral stance on ARE is maintained,” said Mr. Bastien.
* Ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter 2026 results and 2027 guidance on Wednesday, ATB Cormark’s Gavin Fairweather reduced his D2L Inc. (DTOL-T) target to $14 from $23 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $14.25.
“We have taken our Q4 estimates to the high end of guided ranges given a weaker USD. For F27, we think the guide is likely inline or slightly below consensus. That said, with the stock trading at 5.5 times C26 EBITDA, we think the risk-reward is highly asymmetric and suspect the strong balance sheet positions the stock for accelerating capital returns,” said Mr. Fairweather.
* In a report titled Stepping Out in Botswana, Raymond James’ Craig Stanley initiated coverage of Nexmetals Mining Corp. (NEXM-X) with an “outperform” rating and $8.50 target.
“NEXM is advancing the past-producing Selebi and Selkirk Cu + Ni projects in Botswana,” he said. “NEXM’s shares offer investors exposure to a growing copper company in a mining-friendly jurisdiction, with significant exploration potential, and backed by an experienced team.”
* In response to its fourth-quarter financial results, an updated binding offtake agreement with the Government of Canada, the receipt of US$335-million in senior project debt from Export Development Canada and the Canada Infrastructure Bank and the final U.S. International Trade Commission ruling on AAM (Active Anode Material) tariffs, National Bank Financial’s Mohamed Sidibé trimmed his Street-low Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (NOU-T) target to $4.75 from $5.25 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $7.99.