Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Desjardins Securities analyst Jerome Dubreuil sees Canadian telecommunications companies suffering from the impact of an “irrational” pricing environment in the first quarter of the year.
“It is disappointing that the lessons from 2023–25 wireless pricing do not appear to have been internalized, as some of the offers launched in 1Q rank among the most aggressive we have ever observed,“ he said. ”The silver lining is that these promotions are occurring during a low-volume period. Nonetheless, this raises the broader question of whether such behavior is simply characteristic of a four-player market. We believe that similar pricing dynamics during higher-loading periods (ie 2H26) could put downward pressure on valuation multiples."
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Dubreuil admitted he’s “particularly puzzled” by the reacceleration in promotional activity during the quarter, which is normally a seasonally weak period for gross additions.
“Elevated promotions in this environment drive higher churn and reprice existing subscriber bases, while generating limited incremental loadings for the industry overall,” he said. “Where most aggressive offers used to be in Québec and Manitoba, we saw the same aggressive pricing in Ontario, B.C. and Alberta during the quarter.”
“We expect the federal government to reach its target of non-permanent residents representing 5 per cent of Canada’s total population by late 2027 to early 2028, barring any change on the political front. At that point, the decline in non-permanent residents, which represents a headwind for subscriber growth, should stabilize.”
Given that activity, Mr. Dubreuil is now “hoping for a fresh start” as the second quarter begins.
“On April 1, we saw a notable removal of wireless promotions across the sector,” he said. “While we believe the damage is already done for 1Q, we are hopeful that discipline will prevail. In the meantime, it is becoming increasingly difficult to give companies the benefit of the doubt amid this resurgence of “race to the bottom” dynamics. On the fixed-line side, we noted that TELUS is offering Internet service in its stores at $59/month, leveraging the TPIA regime, and pricing the product below cost, in Montréal (outside its fixed footprint). Rogers’ $25/month FWA product continues to be a very attractive price."
“We anticipate a gradual acceleration in adjusted EBITDA growth over the remainder of the year for the company. That said, despite it being early in the year, we believe the upper end of the Big 3’s respective adjusted EBITDA growth guidance is now unlikely to be achieved.”
Heading into earnings season, the analyst adjusted his valuations and target prices for four of the five stocks in the industry. In order of preference, they are:
1. BCE Inc. (BCE-T) with a “buy” rating and $41.50 target, down from $42. The average on the Street is $38.80, according to LSEG data.
Analyst: “BCE sits at the top. The company has recently demonstrated decent fundamental momentum with the 300MW data center announcement (with potential for more announcements) and the $675-million sale of its land mobile radio networks services business. However, its large telecom exposure, where we expect a challenging quarter, could limit near-term upside. Overall, we are encouraged by BCE’s catalysts and its expected EBITDA growth acceleration over the next three years.”
2. Telus Corp. (T-T) with a “buy” rating and a $21.50 target, down from $23. Average: $20.72.
Analyst: “We do not expect any changes to capital allocation this quarter. That said, we continue to believe the company should 1) cut its dividend by 30–40 per cent, terminate the DDRIP; 2) refocus on core telecom operations and sell non-core assets; 3) de-lever organically and focus on FCFPS. We think some of these initiatives could be announced as early as in 2Q. While we still believe T has a long-term value creation opportunity, we are cautious ahead of the quarter."
3. Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T) with a “buy” rating and $61 target (unchanged). Average: $59.19.
Analyst: “While the stock has outperformed in the past year and near-term catalysts appear limited, we are reluctant to take a negative relative stance against a company with such strong operational momentum and execution, even at the current valuation. We expect QBR to accelerate its share repurchase activity in the coming months.”
4. Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) with a “hold” rating and a $54.50 target, down from $55. Average: $57.87.
Analyst: “We updated our valuation of sports assets to reflect recent developments. We recently got more transparency around the process for the MLSE 25-per-cent stake acquisition. While an eventual 25-per-cent-plus stake monetization would be positive, we expect RCI to go through an interim period characterized by elevated leverage and uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of sports asset divestitures.”
5. Cogeco Communications Inc. (CCA-T) with “hold” rating and a $71 target, down from $72. Average: $75.80.
Analyst: “The company’s conference call will be key to assess whether management still expects a 2H U.S. turnaround (started in March). We also expect further insight into early customer traction for Welo, the company’s digital-only U.S. brand.”
Elsewhere, Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige lowered his Rogers target to $55.50 from $57 with a “buy” rating ahead of its April 22 earnings release.
“We expect a flattish quarter with adj. EBITDA up 3.5 per cent year-over-year mainly supported by the MLSE acquisition (ex-acquisition adj. EBITDA up 1.1 per cent),” he said. “Competitive activity through Q1/26 was notably elevated and threatens the prospect of a recovery in wireless economics. While the financial impact of this is unlikely to materially affect Q1, we expect the escalation to have a lag effect on wireless service revenue for the remainder of 2026. As a result, our F2026E now sits at the low end of guidance for EBITDA. We have adj. EPS of $1.00 in Q1, down slightly from $1.01 last year and just below consensus’ $1.01. We maintain our BUY rating, which is supported by the prospect of a Sportsco monetization.”
While ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Richard Gray sees Barrick Mining Corp.’s (ABX-T) move to slow activities at its Reko Diq project in Pakistan as a positive move “given the challenges and cost of the project, as well as the investor pushback on the asset given its location in Pakistan near the border with Iran and Afghanistan.”
However, he downgraded his rating for its shares to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously, citing “the continued struggles to lower costs (Q1/26 expected to be weak) and the uncertainty as to what this company looks like a year from now with the North American IPO slated for later this year and the lack of clarity on how the transformational Fourmile asset is incorporated into the Nevada JV.”
Last week, the Toronto-based miner announced it’s reviewing all aspects of Reko Diq, which the analyst calls “one of the largest undeveloped copper-gold projects in the world with reserves,” given the escalation of security risks and increased security incidents.
“The continued review will allow the company to assess in a comprehensive manner the evolving security situation, capital requirements, project financing, project scope, and timeline,” said Mr. Gray. “While development activity will be slowed, the project will remain under active management with a reduced capital spend. However, it is anticipated that there could be significant increases to the previously disclosed total estimated capital budget and timeline for the project. The previously disclosed total estimated capital cost of Phase 1 was between $5.6-6.0-billion (100-per-cent basis) and of Phase 2 was between $3.3-3.6-billion (100-per-cent basis), with first production targeted by the end of 2028.
“Barrick will continue to monitor the security landscape closely in consultation with its joint venture partners and will provide a further update to the market following the conclusion of its review.”
Mr. Gray reduced his target for Barrick shares to $75 from $70 based on “the reduction in value for Reko Diq.” The average is $81.57.
During first-quarter earnings season for North American transportation companies, Citi analyst Ariel Rosa is looking for upward estimate revisions from the Street, but he warns geopolitical uncertainty is “clouding” the outlook moving forward.
“Transports have started ‘26 strong, advancing up 11.2 per cent (TRAN vs. down 3.4 per cent for S&P500),” he said. “We continue to believe our coverage is well-positioned to outperform the broader market on improving fundamentals and the sector’s defensive/’HALO’ characteristics. Geopolitical uncertainty and rising valuations have admittedly made investment calls more challenging, but the contraction in freight supply that is clearly underway leaves us cautiously constructive on the sustainability of higher freight rates.
“Investor bullishness has scaled back from recent extremes as investors await greater macro clarity, with this moderation in sentiment a healthy correction, in our view. Companies we spoke with in recent weeks sounded increasingly upbeat, while also acknowledging 1Q challenges. We expect mixed 1Q results, but have increasing confidence that earnings will begin to materially improve in coming quarters, with correspondingly upbeat outlooks, with the caveat that rising fuel prices pose risk of demand destruction.”
Tn a client report released Tuesday, Mr. Rosa said he has “cautious” optimism on the macroeconomic conditions moving forward, but emphasizes fuel volatility poses risk. He added the “first-quarter transports rollercoaster reflects uncertainty.”
“The most noteworthy trend in transports year-to-date, from our perspective, has been the strength of truckload spot rates,” he said. “Even as we expected rates to improve, the level of advance (comping up up 30 per cent year-over-year) despite a still-tepid demand environment and in defiance of normal seasonal weakness reflects clear evidence of supply contraction, with BLS data showing trucker employment at its lowest level in years. This has undeniably bullish implications for contract rate renewals, with truckers noting significantly more favorable negotiating positions versus shippers. Separately, the improving ISM Mfg. PMI bodes well for the prospects of rising demand, which could further push up freight rates. That said, geopolitical uncertainty along with volatile and rising fuel prices threatens consumer and business confidence and could pressure transport margins, meriting caution, particularly for stocks that have risen sharply year-to-date.
“Transports have experienced a mini-cycle over the last few months, going from deeply out of favor to border-line exuberance, to their March sell-off and what we now view as a more balanced position. We have made only modest adjustments to our estimates, largely to reflect higher fuel prices and stronger freight rates. We remain above Street consensus on many of our ’26 estimates, but the range of possible earnings scenarios strikes us as particularly wide at the moment depending on the duration and implications of the Iran conflict/rising fuel prices/demand destruction risk.”
The analyst opened an “upside 90-day catalyst watch” for Montreal-based TFI International Inc. (TFII-T), calling it “one of the most overlooked and misunderstood names” in his coverage universe.
“It is our impression that many investors view TFI as a challenged unionized LTL [less-than-truckload] carrier (based on its 2021 acquisition of UPS Freight, which has admittedly struggled with weaker-than-expected margins through the freight recession),” said Mr. Rosa. “But legacy UPS Freight represents only 20 per cent of operating earnings, with the other 80 per cent from a range of businesses with significant cyclical torque. We believe the 2024 acquisition of flatbed carrier Daseke could begin to drive significant earnings growth in coming quarters as flatbed rates continue to reflect tightening supply-demand conditions – consistent with the broader trucking space. As TFII has a lower multiple than many trucking peers, we see less risk of multiple contraction, while its strong FCF makes it not particularly expensive in our view, even on cyclically depressed earnings."
His target for TFI shares rose by US$1 to US$144 with a “buy” rating. The average target is US$124.99.
The analyst’s other target revisions include:
- Canadian National Railway Co. (CNI-N/CNR-T, “buy”) to US$123 from US$115. Average: US$110.19.
- Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-N/CP-T, “buy”) to US$93 from US$86. Average: US$90.81.
“Many stocks in our coverage appear expensive in our view, barring significant upward revisions to estimates, which in many cases feels premature given macro uncertainty,“ he concluded. ”We have narrowed our ratings, shifting CSX to Neutral from Buy as the Eastern rails trade at a rare premium to Class 1 peers. We add a positive catalyst watch on TFI International (TFII) as we believe its strong free cash generation is being under-appreciated and its flatbed exposure from its 2024 Daseke acquisition stands to deliver strong gains on surging flatbed rates, while also trading at a valuation discount to peers."
When The North West Company Inc. (NWC-T) reports its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on Wednesday, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Ryland Conrad will be focused on any updates to in-market First Nations Child and Family Services settlement payments.
The Winnipeg-based company’s earnings fluctuate based on the timing and amount of such payments to individuals. In early December, the retailer said payments had increased modestly to that point in the quarter, and it expected distributions to ramp up to start in 2026.
“While we believe that the cadence of payments has been monthly rather than daily (with claims typically being processed within 6-12 months), we look for an update from management on observed in-market settlement payments with incremental developments including: (i) the AFN on March 10th announcing that more than $650-million in compensation has been paid to eligible claimants versus $267-million as of November while progress continues to open the claims process for the next classes; and (ii) the settlement administrator indicating that 97k claims have been filed for the Removed Child Class as of March, which could translate to $3.9-billion in compensation being disbursed through F2026,” said Mr. Conrad. “Our forecast continues to factor in contribution from settlement payments beginning in earnest in Q1/26.”
For the quarter, the analyst is projecting revenue of $660-million, a decline of 2.2 per cent year-over-year, while he sees EBITDA rising 0.9 per cent to $94-million. Both fall in line with the Street’s expectations ($659-million and $93-million, respectively) with his adjusted earnings per share estimate of 91 cents topping the consensus by 5 cents.
“Despite wildfire impacts easing sequentially and normalizing by the end of the quarter, Canada same-store sales moderated to negative 2.8 per cent in Q3/25 (versus negative 1.8 per cent in Q2/25) with management mainly attributing the performance to reduced funding for ICFI (which faced a tougher year-over-year comp sequentially as the program was in its infancy in Q2/24) and CFS programs which is expected to persist through Q1/26, albeit partially offset by settlement payment disbursements,” he said. “In addition, revenues were negatively impacted by lower drinking water settlement payments (which we estimate will continue to trend down in Q4/25), transitory disruptions from supply chain optimizations and pricing due to the private label program rollout. For the International business, SSS were flat year-over-year in Q3/25 (versus up 0.1 per cent in Q2/25) reflecting ongoing macro headwinds and a lower Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend.”
Keeping his “outperform” rating for North West shares, Mr. Conrad bumped his target to $60 from $58 after minor estimate revisions and a rolling forward of his valuation. The average on the Street is $58.
“Against the backdrop of elevated macro uncertainty, we favour stocks with defensive attributes and/or idiosyncratic growth drivers,” he said. “In our view, NWC firmly checks both of those boxes with: (i) majority of its operations in remote retail markets with structural barriers to entry, limited competition and demand stability supported by government transfer payments; and (ii) an entrenched presence across First Nations in Northern Canada that are set to benefit from up to $80-billion in settlement funding over the next decade. At 7.7x FTM EV/ EBITDA, which is below NWC’s long-term average of 8.5 times, we continue to view current levels as an attractive buying opportunity.”
National Bank Financial analyst Baltej Sidhu thinks the simplified rules emerging from “significant” changes” by the U.S. government to Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper will provide a notable “structural tailwind” for Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (HPS.A-T).
Shares of the Guelph, Ont.-based company jumped 15.3 per cent on Monday after the Trump administration announced updated guidance on those tariffs, clarifying how rates apply to imports.
“The updated framework introduces a tiered structure, with 50-per-cent tariffs on primary metals, 25 per cent on derivative products, and a reduced 15-per-cent rate on select metal-intensive industrial and grid equipment,” he explained. “Overall, the tariff calculations are simpler and transparent, and could be viewed as the administration working with the industry, in acknowledging supply constraints and the need to support ongoing U.S. industrial and grid buildout.
“While the 15-per-cent grid equipment category appears to capture HPS’ suite, we believe its transformer products are likely to fall under the 25-per-cent derivative category, based on product codes listed in the annex. That said, we view the revised framework as more transparent and consistent, replacing metal-content-based calculations with a clearer rules-based approach, which should improve confidence and create a more level playing field.”
While acknowledging the overall financial impact “remains under evaluation given the complexity of HPS’s input mix and broad SKU base,” Mr. Sidhu thinks the revised framework could “prove incrementally less punitive” for Hammond.
“Under the revised tariff regime, the effective burden may be more manageable relative to the prior structure,” he said. “There are puts and takes as the savings may flow through to the customer in maintaining relationships. Stepping back, the policy shift reinforces an already tightening supply backdrop for transformer equipment while supporting continued investment in grid infrastructure, leaving us optimistic that HPS can recover costs and sustain pricing.”
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for the company’s shares, the analyst raised his Street-high target to $235 from $220. The average is currently $161.
“While we have more clarity, we are comfortable with our current estimates, and believe the reaction in the shares reflect margin expansion of 100-150bps vs. our modelling of 120bps. Owing to the continued structural drivers, and increased confidence, we increase our target,” he explained.
While fertilizer prices were higher-than-expected in the first quarter as the conflict in Iran restricted exports from a key region for nitrogen and phosphate supply, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Andrew Wong cautions the full impact of those increases is not likely to materialize immediately.
“Nitrogen in particular has been impacted, with significantly higher prices due to restricted supply and higher LNG prices pushing up global marginal costs,” he said. “Phosphate prices have also risen, but higher sulphur/ammonia input costs have been an offset, while potash has been steady.
“We note most producers were likely already sold-out through Q1 when the Iran war started in early-March, so Q1 results will see minor impacts, with greater impact to financials starting in Q2. We see nitrogen pure-plays as most benefiting from higher prices, but valuations are already pricing in the cash windfall - CF Industries (SP, $125 PT) and LSB Industries (SP, $14 PT). We believe Nutrien shares, trading at pre-Iran war levels, should be higher given moderate exposure to higher nitrogen prices and strong cash generation (OP, $85). We see Mosaic in a transition year as phosphate margins could bottom mid-2026 and ops improve, with attractive upside/downside offset by higher uncertainty on execution (SP, $28).”
For Saskatoon-based Nutrien, Mr. Wong raised his target to US$85 from US$80 with an “outperform” rating. The average is US$80.29.
“We see continued strong operations from Nutrien, which allows the company to generate strong FCF (7 per cent/8 per cent in 2026/2027) and benefit when fertilizer prices enter an up-trend, such as with current higher nitrogen prices due to Iran-war related disruptions,” he said. “We continue to see an attractive upside/downside profile for Nutrien, with potential for moderate re-rating as the company continues to execute well. Focus items: Capital allocation plans for cash windfall from higher nitrogen prices. Farmer sentiment and health given challenged environment with higher input costs. Update on non-core assets including phosphate strategic review, Trinidad nitrogen curtailment, Brazil Retail assets. Potash outlook, potential impacts from higher nitrogen/ phosphate prices.”
His other target changes are:
- CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF-N, “sector perform”) to US$125 from US$100. Average: US$111.64.
- LSB Industries Inc. (LXU-N, “sector perform”) to US$15 from US$14. Average: US$15.17.
His target for Mosaic Co. (MOS-N, “sector perform”) remains US$28, below the US$29.73 average.
In other analyst actions:
* Calling the build out of its Reford project in Saskatchewan “a meaningful turning point for the company, allowing for volume growth and a better cost structure,” BMO’s Tariq Saad upgraded Cardinal Energy Ltd. (CJ-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” with a higher target of $13, up from $9.50 and exceeding the $12 average.
“More is on its way as the company is proceeding with a second Reford project and has identified another Sask thermal asset at Kelfield,” he said. “We believe the improving oil dynamic has made this even more impactful, allowing for quicker deleveraging and paving the way for further SAGD development.”
* Mr. Saad also raised International Petroleum Corp. (IPCO-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” and increased his target to a Street high of $43. The average is $34.
“The company’s premium valuation has historically given us pause, but its 2028 multiple has tightened by almost two turns on the back of the crude rally,” he said. “Furthermore, we previously expected limited to no buyback activity this year, but higher crude prices imply IPC could exhaust its NCIB in 2026. Lastly, we believe the likelihood of future Blackrod phases is now higher, which could offer material upside we suspect isn’t fully appreciated in the current share price.”
* Conversely, Mr. Saad downgraded Advantage Energy Ltd. (AAV-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a lower target of $12. The average is $14.07.
“We expect FCF in H1/26 to be constrained by higher capital spending and lower production, but see an inflection point in H2/26 as production ramps up and spending moderates,” he said. “That said, there has not been any material improvement in AECO prices and we see the situation getting much worse throughout the summer. AAV is heavily exposed to WCAD gas prices, which we believe will be an overhang on stock price performance despite strong operatorship.”
* Citing a “weakening” gas price outlook, BMO’s Randy Ollenberger lowered Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $7 target, below the $8.75 average and down from $8.50.
“Management has done a solid job of improving well performance, capital efficiencies and the overall cost structure of the business; however, the company remains unhedged and highly exposed to AECO prices, which will increase in 2027 as more NYMEX basis swaps roll off,” he said. “We have lowered our gas price outlook on deteriorating western Canada fundamentals in conjunction with our Q1 mark-to-market report.
“We believe the weaker gas price environment could limit share price upside in 2026.”
* In response to its agreement to purchase a 50-per-cent ownership interest in a portfolio of 11 manufactured housing communities (MHCs) for $113.3-million from an institutional investor, Canaccord Genuity’s Zachary Weisbrod upgraded Firm Capital Property Trust (FCD.UN-T) to “buy” from “hold” with a $7 target, matching the average on the Street and up from $6.15 previously.
“The acquisition is expected to be accretive to cash flow, while growing exposure to the MHC asset class with a high-quality cash flow profile. The properties consist of 1,752 lots located in Alberta and Saskatchewan, markets benefiting from population growth and demand for affordable housing. Based on a going-in cap rate of 6.4 per cent and the cost of financing of 4.5 per cent, the transaction is expected to produce $0.02 per unit of incremental cash flow annually (4 per cent above 2025 AFFO),” said Mr. Weisbrod.
* Pointing to the difficult start to 2026 endured by North American asset managers due to several factors, including a heightened scrutiny on private credit and softer equity markets, Piper Sandler’s Crispin Love lowered his price target on Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM-N, BAM-T) to US$48 from US$53 with a “neutral” rating on the shares. The average is US$62.99.
* To reflect the payout of a $20-per-share dividend in late March, ATB Cormark’s David McFadgen cut his Transcontinental Inc. (TCL.A-T) target to $7 from $27 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $11.45.
“We continue to recommend TCL to investors, given its attractive valuation and our optimism around a multiple re-rate on the back of eventual organic growth, likely post some M&A activity,” said Mr. McFadgen.