Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
With U.S. private equity giant Thoma Bravo LP’s $650-million offer to acquire Kneat.com Inc. (KSI-T) at a price near its all-time high and at “an attractive valuation”, TD Cowen analyst David Kwan thinks “the probability of a superior bid is relatively low given the strategic review and ‘comprehensive sale process’, attractive valuation, and shareholder support, among other things.”
Accordingly, he recommends investors to tender to the offer and moved his rating for Toronto-based company, which provides software used by pharmaceutical companies to track and validate their data for quality control and regulatory purposes, to “sell” from “buy” rating.
“One month following the confirmation of a strategic review (see note), KSI announced an all-cash take-private deal with Thoma Bravo for $6.50/sh,” he said.
“The offer is at a 40-per-cent premium to the May 8 close (process was confirmed on May 11) and 20 per cent to Friday’s close and near its all-time high of nearly $7/sh reached in Feb/25. The implied EV/Rev valuation is approximately 9.4 times LTM [last 12 months] and 7.5 times NTM [next 12 months] (vs. 10.6 times its 5-year historical average). On calendar 2027 estimates, the EV/Rev multiple is 6.4 times, just below the peer group average of 6.6 times (average multiple of 2.6 times for its Health Care Tech peers and 9.2 times for High Growth SaaS peers).”
Mr. Kwan now sees the the key approval required from a regulatory standpoint being the Competition Act.
“We note that Thoma Bravo does not appear to own any direct competitors to KSI,” he added
“We also note that Thoma Bravo has owned (e.g., Sparta Systems/TrackWise) and currently own (e.g., QAD) businesses complementary to KSI, which could help it realize revenue/cost synergies comparable to strategic bidders.”
The analyst moved his target to $6.50 from $6 to reflect the offer. The average on the Street is $6.38.
Citi analyst Paul Lejuez thinks the Street’s expectations for Lululemon Athletica Inc.’s (LULU-Q) 2027 are too high, warning there is not “a near-term (or easy) fix for the business anytime soon.”
“A few things that keep us on the sidelines: (1) In 1Q26 LULU reported its first overall negative comp since 2020 (pandemic-induced), and comps are likely to be further pressured in F26, (2) North American biz is particularly weak with 1Q26 comps down 6 per cent and F26 sales guided down 1 per cent to flat, (3) China comps are decelerating with very difficult comparisons in 2H26 (reported mid-20s-per-cent comps in 2H25 vs 12 per cent in 1H25), (4) New CEO Heidi O’Neill doesn’t arrive until Sept,” he said. “We remain Neutral.”
In a client note reviewing last week’s release of its quarterly results, Mr. Lejuez acknowledged the Vancouver-based apparel retailer “may look relatively cheap compared to history, with a 10.5 times P/E on consensus F27E $11.16, more in-line with mall-based specialty retailers than a global athletic brand.”
However, he reduced his fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings per share estimates “significantly” to US$11.12 and US$9.99, respectively from US$12.43 and US$12.81 (versus the consensus projections of US$11.02 and US$11.16) in response to its “weak” first-quarter 2026 results and guidance reduction.
That led him to cut his target for Lululemon shares to US$130 from US$185, keeping a “neutral” rating. The average is US$137.83.
“After years of benefitting from outsized growth in active apparel, trends in the category have slowed. This dynamic, coupled with LULU’s execution issues (lackluster product assortment/lack of color/sizing) leave LULU more susceptible to increased competition and promotional pressures. Management plans to add more newness to help improve the Americas biz (which they believe will drive more full price sales), and there have been some early successes. But the macro backdrop will make a turnaround more challenging. We believe the risk/reward is balanced,” he said.
National Bank Financial analyst Alex Terentiew sees the opportunity for Gold X2 Mining Inc.‘s (AUXX-X) 100-per-cent-owned Moss Gold Project in Northwestern Ontario to become “increasingly attractive as a potential flagship Canadian gold asset.”
“The company has already defined a more than 6 million ounce gold resource base with strong potential to increase, further enhancing the project’s economics potential,” he explained. “We model a 20-year mine life producing an average of 266 koz AuEq [thousand ounces of gold equivalent] per year, with upside to 350+ kozpa possible, in our view. Over the next two years, we expect continued resource growth and technical de-risking to support the evaluation of larger development scenarios, which could drive a sizable increase in NAV.”
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Terentiew became the first analyst to initiate coverage of the Vancouver-based junior miner, giving it an “outperform” rating.
“We view the 2026 PEA [preliminary economic assessment] as a starting point, rather than the ultimate development plan,” he said. “While Gold X2 has completed a PEA outlining an 11 Mtpa, 13-year open-pit operation producing 265 kozpa Au, we see scope for the project to evolve materially as drilling expands mineralization beyond the current pit shell, infill drilling converts currently classified waste to resources, and near-deposit opportunities are tested. With $117-million in the bank fully funding the extensive 160,000 metre 2026 drill program, we view the potential identification of both additional bulk-tonnage ounces and higher-grade zones as key value-accretive catalysts for both IRR and NPV expansion.
“The large land package and supportive infrastructure provide a pathway to a district-scale operation. Moss benefits from access to Highway 11, rail, grid power and Thunder Bay’s port and services, mitigating development risk and supporting a competitive cost structure relative to more remote Canadian development peers. In our view, Gold X2’s land package across the Shebandowan Greenstone Belt provides multiple avenues for resource growth, including pit expansion, resource conversion, potential underground mineralization, and regional targets such as the Moss Trend Extension, Deaty Trend, Ardeen Trend and Star Lake. AngloGold Ashanti’s $72.7-million investment and 9.9-per-cent equity ownership provide external technical validation and help fund resource growth, while its participation on a technical advisory committee should support the pursuit of resource growth underpinning the evaluation of larger development scenarios.”
Seeing its valuation remaining “attractive despite recent out performance,“ Mr. Terentiew set a target of $2.50 for Gold X2 shares, pointing to an estimated total return of 81.2 per cent.
“By our estimates, Gold X2 trades at 0.43 times P/NAV, below the gold developer peer average of 0.47 times,” he explained. “We derive our $2.50 target price using a 0.7 times NAVPS [net asset value per share] multiple, reflecting Moss’s tier-one jurisdiction, infrastructure access, resource growth potential and potential to scale into one of Canada’s larger new gold mines. In our view, the current discount reflects early-stage development risk and limited institutional awareness. We expect continued resource growth, feasibility work, permitting progress and evidence of a larger development case to support further re-rating and a higher market valuation.”
RBC’s Head of Global Energy Research Greg Pardy thinks the depth of Ovintiv Inc.’s (OVV-N, OVV-T) position in the Montney region as well as its “streamlined portfolio, strong balance sheet and enhanced shareholder returns affords investors with an attractive valuation re-rating opportunity over time.”
“Our recent update with Ovintiv’s CFO, Corey Code and Investor Relations team reinforced our confidence that its portfolio transformation is complete, and delved into growth drivers, shareholder returns and potential for inclusion in the S&P/TSX Composite Index,” he added. “In our view, the next leg of Ovintiv’s relative re-rating journey has everything to do with consistent operational/financial delivery.”
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Pardy reaffirmed Ovintiv’s spot on RBC’s “Global Energy Best Ideas List”, touting its “disciplined” capital spending and shareholder returns.
“Ovintiv currently has no plans to alter its 2026 mid-point capital spending program of $2.3-billion or production outlook of 620,000-645,000 boe/d (including 205,000-212,000 bbl/d of oil & condensate) but is open to growth should the 18-24 month pricing signals fall into place,” he said. “Should Ovintiv elect to proceed with growth, the top end of the range would likely be 5 per cent, balanced by the Permian and Montney.”
“Ovintiv has signaled that it will return 50–75 per cent of free cash flow to shareholders in 2026 across dividends and buybacks, a modest step back from its prior signal of at least 75 per cent. The company indicated that this shift reflects a deliberate move away from the rigidly formulaic, quarterly-calculated framework put in place in 2021. Having reached its $4 billion net debt target (with net debt at $3.3 billion as of April 30), the company believes it has earned the right to deploy its shareholder returns with more latitude/flexibility and a longer-term mindset. Ovintiv will continue to repurchase its shares on a counter-cyclical basis, aiming for net debt/mid-cycle cash flow of around 1.0 times or less."
The analyst also said his bullish outlook for Ovintiv has increased with its potential inclusion in the S&P/TSX index following S&P Dow Jones Indices’ April 2026 proposed methodology change to expand eligibility to TSX- listed foreign issuers.
“The company’s external (third-party) evaluation of this possibility is constructive, pointing towards 4-5 million shares of direct demand, a half-weighting, and a timeline as early as this September,” he noted.
Mr. Pardy reaffirmed his “outperform” rating and US$70 target for the company’s shares. The average on the Street is US$68.67.
" Under futures prices, Ovintiv is trading at debt-adjusted cash flow multiples of 3.5 times (vs. our North American senior E&P peer group avg. of 6.1 times) in 2026 and 3.6 times in 2027 (vs. peers at 5.1 times) and free cash flow yields (enterprise value) of 15 per cent (vs. peers at 11 per cent) in 2026 and 14 per cent in 2027 (vs. peers at 9 per cent)," he said. “We believe that Ovintiv should trade in- line with our North American peer group given its solid leadership team, impressive execution capability, inventory depth in the Montney, enhanced shareholder returns and strong balance sheet.”
Seeing “ingredients in place for sector-leading growth,” TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil says Keyera Corp. (KEY-T) is his top Canadian midstream small- and mid-cap stock idea “underpinned by visible, fee-based growth and improving fundamentals post-Plains.”
“We expect the June 15 investor update to outline a multi-year EBITDA CAGR [compound annual growth rate], reaffirm synergy capture (more than $100-million) and highlight incremental optimization/debottlenecking, supporting a sustained sector-leading growth profile with catalysts near term,” he said.
In a client note released Tuesday, Mr. MacNeil said the Calgary-based midstream energy operator is “positioned to benefit from rising throughput across its integrated gas processing and liquids value chain, including gas processing, NGL pipeline, fractionation, storage, and diluent logistics.”
“As more liquids are extracted and moved through the KAPS pipeline and its Fort Saskatchewan complex, the system will require incremental debottlenecking and optimization opportunities, supporting an extension of its industry-leading growth rate,” he added.
“What Is Underappreciated Or Misunderstood? * Keyera’s Industry-Leading Growth Rate: Our base case assumes a 9.6-per-cent fee-for-service growth rate, before any deal accretion or synergies beyond the $100-million target and excluding PFS ownership impacts. This remains the highest growth rate in our coverage universe. * Potential PFS Sale Relatively Immaterial to Our Thesis: We have assumed a sale of PFS at 10 times to form a conservative base case for investors to contemplate, as discussed in a prior note (link). Refreshing based on our latest estimates, a no-sale scenario would add $2 to our PT (3-per-cent difference to total return).”
Mr. MacNeil has a “buy” rating and a Street-high $68 target for Keyera shares. The average is $59.30.
In other analyst actions:
* ATB Cormark’s Zach Matheson raised his Amex Exploration Inc. (AMX-X) target to $8, exceeding the $6.63 average on the Street, from $6.75 with an “outperform” rating.
“Following the official release of the Phase 1 FS economic study on the Perron Project and coming off restriction after the closing of the initial oversubscribed brokered financing package, we have completed multiple updates to our model resulting in an increase in our target price to $8.00/shr from $6.75/shr. With increased grades, higher throughput and updated cost metrics, we see the improved economics as a clear sign that Perron should be a well-sought-after asset to nearby producers, with strong resource upside yet to be realized across the more than 70 kilometer strike extent and significant expansion-focused exploration drilling ongoing,” said Mr. Matheson.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk dropped his TerraVest Industries Inc. (TVK-T) target to $140 from $190 with a “buy” rating. The average is $175.50.
“We are maintaining our BUY rating on TerraVest but lowering our one-year target price ... after the company acknowledged allegations pertaining to its Executive Chair, Charles Pellerin, appeared in the Journal de Montréal on Friday, June 5, 2026. While there are many outstanding questions, there are several things we do know. Firstly, Mr. Pellerin hasn’t been charged with any crime and the allegations against him haven’t been proven in court. Secondly, the company hasn’t been approached by regulators. Thirdly, TerraVest’s board (excluding Mr. Pellerin) is reviewing the allegations with the assistance of outside legal counsel. Lastly, while Mr. Pellerin is the originator of TerraVest’s strategy to serially acquire high cash flow industrial businesses, he is not involved in the day-to-day operations of the company, including deal sourcing. This is not to diminish Mr. Pellerin’s role within TerraVest, where he is often brought in to assist in the evaluation of larger potential acquisitions and strategic decisions.”
* BMO’s Fadi Chamoun increased his TFI International Inc. (TFII-N, TFII-T) target to US$170 from US$140, keeping a “market perform” rating. The average is US$149.35.
“Continued positive demand momentum and strengthening cyclical tailwinds across TFII’s core franchises, particularly specialized/flatbed, drive our upward revision to earnings estimates and target price to $170. That said, we believe much of the improving backdrop is already reflected in valuations across TFII’s key segments. While LTL remains an area of potential upside and momentum is building there as well, we see the need for more consistent evidence of sustainable service and pricing improvement. As a result, we view risk-reward as balanced at current levels,” said Mr. Chamoun.