Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Following “strong and better than expected” fourth-quarter 2026 financial results, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel reiterated her “constructive view” on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD-T) and an “upside bias to valuation based on improving results, track record of disciplined capital allocation/ability to deliver across cycles.”
“ATD delivering sequentially accelerating U.S. SSS [same-store sales] despite headwinds of higher fuel and cost of living, points to building a strong base from which to deliver F2026-2030 financial objectives,” she said. “Strong and better than expected gas margins across geographies underscores procurement and pricing advantages, and far more than offset volume weakness, with GP$$ from fuel driving 90 per cent of better than expected GP $$. Adjusted EBITDA $1.614-billion, up 33 per cent year-over-year and 22 per cent above forecast, with normalized opex growth well controlled at up 2.6 per cent.”
On Monday after the bell, the Montreal-based company reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of 73 cents, up 56.1 per cent year-over-year (from 46 cents) and topping Ms. Nattel’s 51-cent estimate.
“Fuel margins across all regions were a clear positive outlier this quarter, reflective of ATD’s agile fuel supply chain, the U.S. convenience engine continues to improve, and Europe is transitioning from integration/cost mode into an organic growth contributor,” she said. Canada is the one pocket of near-term softness, though the underlying drivers are largely compositional (secular decline in tobacco) rather than demand deterioration."
“ATD US backcourt KPI’s lag CASY [Caseys General Stores Inc.] but handily outpace closest peer 7- Eleven and MUSA [Murphy USA Inc.] despite the latter’s earlier quarter-end; while gas volumes lagged both CASY and MUSA, gas margins higher than both, underscoring our thesis that valuation/gap to publicly-traded peers is excessive: 4th consecutive Q of accelerating SSS in U.S. up 3.4 per cent a jerky above F/C up 2.5 per cent, prior Q 2.8 per cent. Release calls out nicotine and packaged beverages. SSS above forecast in Europe, Canada in-line. Fuel price volatility and initiatives around fuel supply chain optimization and execution drove strong forecourt GP$$ despite pressure on gas volumes across regions.”
Maintaining her “outperform” rating for Couche-Tard shares, Ms. Nattel raised her target to $106 from $104. The average on the Street is $102.09, according to LSEG data.
“We have been very clear in our view that the key to ATD multiple re-rating is delivering on the financial objectives outlined at the Feb. 11 Investor Day,” she added.
“We reiterate our view that key to re-rating anchored in sustained improvements in SSS to target CAGR 2-3 per cent, flow through to EBITDA/EPS targeted CAGRs.”
National Bank Financial analyst Patrick Kenny thinks Keyera Corp.’s (KEY-T) $1.215-billion acquisition of the remaining 50-per-cent non-operated interest in its KAPS pipeline from Stonepeak Partners LP helps “further accelerating its condensate and NGL platform across the Montney and Duvernay resource plays, positioning the company for further enhancement and extension of its integrated value chain.”
“Recall, since 2025, KEY has secured over 120 thousand barrels per day of incremental commitments across KAPS Zone 1 to 4, underpinned by contracts with an average term of approximately 12 years and 75-per-cent take-or-pay,” he said. “Meanwhile, the $440-million KAPS Zone 4 connection remains on track and on budget (ISD: mid-2027), with the consolidation adding $100-million to KEY’s previous 2026 growth capex guidance of $550-$625-million (NBCCM: $680-million).”
Resuming coverage of the Calgary-based company following Monday’s close of a $1.0-billion offering of senior unsecured notes and bought deal public offering of approximately $604-million of common shares, Mr. Kenny sees the deal representing a 2029 estimated EBITDA multiple of approximately 11 times (excluding future expansion/contracting opportunities) and 4-per-cent accretion to his long-term adjusted funds from operations per share estimates.
“As such, the company has bumped up its fee-based adj. EBITDA per share CAGR [compound annual growth rate] target to 16-18 per cent for 2025-2027 (was 15-17 per cent from the recent business update; NBCCM: approximately 18 per cent), while reaffirming its 7-8-per-cent fee-based adj. EBITDA per share CAGR for 2027-2029 (NBCCM: 7.5 per cent; was 7 per cent),” he said.
“Overall, our 2027 estimated AFFO/sh (fully diluted) taps up to $4.52 (was $4.41) while 2027 estimated debt/EBITDA bumps up to 3.2 times from 3.0 times, with 2028 D/EBITDA of 2.8 times (was 2.7 times) tracking the company’s guidance of returning within its 2.5-3.0-times target range by 2028 (previously the end of 2027).”
Reaffirming his “outperform” rating for Keyera shares, Mr. Kenny increased his target by $1 to $62, citing accretion to his long-term estimates, partially offset by slightly higher near-term leverage. The average target on the Street is $61.92.
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $65 from $66 with an “outperform” rating.
“We view the KAPS transaction positively, although our target does fall modestly to $65/share as we revise our Marketing estimates lower. Nevertheless, KEY remains one of our favorite stocks in the peer group given what we view as an attractive valuation with some of the highest growth in the group and the strongest balance sheet. As such, we are reiterating our Outperform rating,” said Mr. Barth.
* ATB Cormark’s Nate Heywood to $61 from $58 with a “sector perform” rating.
“The acquisition is projected to be modestly accretive to per-share distributable cash flow. Furthermore, it enhances customer flexibility, secures high-quality long-term cash flows (average 12-year contract terms, 75 per cent take-or-pay), and boosts KEY’s 2025–2027 fee-based EBITDA per share growth CAGR guidance to 16–18 per cent without disrupting its target leverage range of 2.5–3.0 times by 2028,” said Mr. Heywood.
Citing “strong execution, solid growth and sub-3-times leverage,” National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine adjusted his valuation parameters for Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T) following a virtual fireside chat with Chief Financial Officer Hugues Simard last week.
In a note released before the bell, he emphasized the “discipline, brand positioning, initial moves out West” for the company’s Wireless division.
“Share gains continue in QC, still mainly driven by Fizz, but loading/upgrades at VDO [Videotron] are moving ARPU [average revenue per user] in QC higher despite Fizz dilution,” he said. “Freedom is on, if not ahead of, a plan that wasn’t about gaining X share within a certain year, but rather operationally focused on improving the network & customer satisfaction which has occurred as building blocks were put in place so far in Ontario. Discipline persists on network capex with some shifting of spend from ON to AB/BC started in 2H25 as key network/distribution steps get done ahead of marketing efforts ramping up later in 2026 to relaunch Freedom brand and introduce Fizz. More work is gradually being done in ON to better position Freedom & Fizz, with latter less known ex-QC and former having seen steady traction over past 3 years as its customer base iterates on credit quality, duration/churn, usage, and upgrades. 2Q industry pricing has been relatively more disciplined than 1Q, but QBR isn’t chasing loading targets.”
For its Cable division, Mr. Shine touted “lesson learned, return to growth, cost improvement.”
“VDO didn’t raise prices 18 months ago as it battled heavy fibre discounting by its telco peer,” he said. “Competitive intensity eased after early 2025 and VDO’s Dec. 3 price increase helped Cable return to growth in 1Q26 (first time since mid-2023) with encouraging signs this may continue through 2026. While VDO subs are upgrading to higher speeds, Fizz is seeing more bundling in Quebec. Amid more discipline post-3Q24, Cable has benefited from successful retention & winback efforts. TPIA & FWA aren’t having much of an impact on VDO, while Freedom Home Internet launched Dec. 2 with traction in Ontario since but more to be done to improve consumer awareness to drive bundling.”
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Quebecor shares, Mr. Shine hiked his target to a high on the Street of $74 from $67. The average is $64.55.
National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev thinks Finning International Inc. (FTT-T) and Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T) “stand to benefit” from the domestic demand for data centres.
“Data centres (DC) and corresponding CapEx have been all the rage in the U.S. for a number of years now but here in Canada we are only getting to the point where sizeable new capacity is being added and translating into actual projects on the ground (Bird Construction being the first out of the gate, announcing a hyperscaler-level award – Bell AI Fabric’s 300 MW data centre near Regina, SK) ... We wanted to better frame the discussion around the current size of the data centre market in Canada (1.6 GW), where it might go based on the current state of proposals (13 GW) and which companies / geos (predominantly Alberta) would be best positioned to potentially see incremental revenue generation from the above," he said.
“We do want to be mindful of course when it comes to linear projections to not over extrapolating all of the proposals into actual projects in the ground. We have seen this movie before with LNG, for instance, where out of dozens of proposals, only 2 went ahead. There were of course other considerations that derailed the latter trade (lower LNG pricing in Asia, aggressively competing geographies like Qatar, Australia and the U.S., permitting delays, etc.) and we might actually argue that the current desire to spend on infrastructure in Canada is the best since we’ve been covering the space (pre-GFC) as political, economic, fiscal and geopolitical realities align in a constructive manner (something that really came across during our conference a few weeks ago). ... Gargantuan U.S. investments inform our decision making.”
In a client report released Tuesday, Mr. Sytchev said the the scale of spending, which he emphasizes is increasingly funded by debt and equity versus organic free cash flow generation, “deserves to be underlined given both its nominal magnitude and parabolic growth.”
“In the last 24 months, consensus CapEx for 2026 for the largest hyperscalers has tripled to over US$700-billion, with an estimated 60 per cent to 80 per cent (between computing hardware, networking, and the physical site infrastructure) of that figure attributable to the buildout of data centres, which by implication account for all of the incremental growth,” he added. “While the sustainability and prospects of an eventual spending cliff – whether organic or driven by inevitable financial constraints – is very much a valid concern, there is little indication of a slowdown in this dynamic for the near term with 2027E CapEx for the same 5 players projected at close to US$900-billion.
“The Canadian data centre landscape, measured by GW capacity, currently stands at 1.6 GW, a figure projected to increase 8-fold in the medium-term. As of March 2026, Canada had 192 active data centres with 1.6 GW of total capacity (implying a relatively small capacity on a per location basis vs. what’s being proposed). The pipeline of 143 announced projects however is towering at 13.2 GW. Announced facilities therefore average 116 MW in capacity, compared with 11.3 MW for active facilities, showing a shift toward hyperscaler-type sites /scope. Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia host 85 per cent of active facilities, while Alberta accounts for 93 per cent of planned capacity. Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia have cleaner grids but have introduced restrictions on large-load grid access. Alberta has a more open investment strategy, but its grid emissions intensity is nearly 5 times the national average and many planned sites face higher water-risk exposure. Identified providers of active Canadian data centres are mostly foreign, with U.S.-headquartered firms accounting for more than 50 per cent of observed providers.”
Mr. Sytchev sees Finning poised to take advantage of the legislative backdrop in Alberta and data centre buildout in the province.
“We are conservatively estimating that out of 13.2 GW of proposed DC projects, 20 per cent will proceed to construction, giving Finning an opportunity to capitalize on demand for primary and backup power gensets via equipment sales and aftermarket product support services,” he said.
“For context, in the most recent calendar year FTT generated $1.3-billion in total energy & power revenues (in all geographies, not just Canada), while we are estimating the incremental cumulative opportunity from data centres in Canada could amount to $1.8-billion.”
He thinks Bird Construction stands to benefit “on the physical envelope construction side of the ledger.”
“Recall that Bird is one of the leading vertical building contractors while sporting one of the largest electrical/mechanical capabilities (through legacy Canem and in-situ expertise),’ he said. ”We estimate the data centre construction costs (shell and core, excluding compute) to total around $3-million to $5-million per 1 MW of capacity. Given Bird is unlikely to capture 100 per cent of any given project (and as the case with FTT, we assume that 20 per cent of proposed projects go ahead) and assuming $2-million for Bird’s potential revenue per MW as a more conservative figure, cumulative incremental revenue from the DC buildout could amount to approximately $1-billion in topline (note that BDT identified data centres as a $20-billion TAM in its own materials – we don’t know what exactly is being assumed as reaching a go-ahead stage in that large figure) vs. the current consolidated revenue range of $3.8-billion for 2026."
Mr. Sytchev kept “outperform” ratings for Finning and Bird with targets of $115 and $57, respectively. The averages on the Street are $120.50 and $62.57, respectively.
He made one target adjustment, raising Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T) to $259. exceeding the $232.38 average, from $216 with an “outperform” recommendation.
“While the market did not seem to attach any outsized significance to Toromont’s initial acquisition of a 60-per-cent stake in [AVL Manufacturing Inc.], growth has continued to greatly exceed expectations amid the data centre buildout in the U.S.,” he said. “The momentum has continued unabated with AVL contributing $129-million in revenues in Q1/26 and last week’s announcement of $1-billion in new orders (to be realized mostly in 2027E, necessitating further capacity expansion); as a result, TIH shares are now up 107 per cent since the original announcement (up 39 per cent for the TSX) as accelerating upward earnings revisions have been accompanied by significant – and in our view fully justified – multiple expansion and revenue visibility continues to improve. As a result, we are shifting our valuation anchor entirely to 2027E (previously blended 2026E/2027E – target P/E multiple remains at 28.0 times) which, combined with materially higher EPS forecasts, shifts our target price.”
Emphasizing Corby Spirit and Wine Ltd.’s (CSW.A-T) portfolio has “outperformed the Canadian market in value growth for fourteen consecutive quarters,” Acumen Capital analyst Nick Corcoran initiated coverage of Toronto-based company with a “buy” rating on Tuesday.
“This [outperformance] is through a combination of strong brands, commercial execution excellence, and the affiliation with Pernod Ricard that provides strategic advantages, best practices, and operational and financial support,” he said. “Corby’s market share, estimated based on Canadian spirits market value, is estimated to be 79.4 per cent in Irish whiskey, 22.0 per cent in single malt Scotch whisky, 15.9 per cent in blended Scotch whisky, 27.2 per cent in Canadian whisky, 18.5 per cent in vodka, and 16.0 per cent in rum.”
In a report titled Value, Distilled, Mr. Corcoran said Corby, which holdings include J.P. Wiser’s Canadian whisky, Lamb’s rum and Polar Ice vodka, has boosted growth by “strategically acquired brands have boosted growth.
“The Company has also used acquisitions to broaden its portfolio and increase exposure to faster-growing categories,” he said. “Earlier transactions added Canadian spirits and wine assets. More recent transactions materially expanded Corby’s RTD platform through the acquisitions of ACE Beverage Group and the Nude beverage brands. These transactions have helped position Corby as one of the leading Canada-wide RTD players, with Management noting that RTDs represented 38 per cent of revenue FYTD.”
“More broadly, Corby’s recent strategy has focused on gaining share in spirits, nationally scaling its RTD business, improving value realization through pricing and promotional efficiencies, and pursuing dynamic portfolio management through selective acquisitions and disposals. The Company’s strategic partnership to represent certain third-party RTD brands has also added additional scale to Corby’s RTD business. Management has also emphasized operational discipline, innovation, and targeted expansion of export markets as core drivers of long-term value creation.”
Seeing its shares trading at an “attractive” valuation, he set a target of $22. The average is $24.75.
“Fundamentals support strong FCF conversion. Revenue and Adj. EBITDA is forecast to increase from $247-million and $64-million in FY/25 to $299-million and $79-million in FY/28E, respectively, he said. ”This is expected to drive strong FCF conversion of 60 per cent that will be used to fund the dividend and the expected renewal of the representation agreement with Pernod Ricard (expected in 2026).”
In other analyst actions:
* Following the completion of its 15-for-1 share consolidation, Raymond James’ Brad Sturges raised his Parkit Enterprise Inc. (PKT-X) target to $11 from $10.50 with a “market perform” rating.
“We believe Parkit’s share consolidation can incrementally improve the company’s trading fund flow, as the company is no longer perceived as a penny stock, and potentially allowing for existing and prospective small-cap investors to buy Parkit shares on margin. We anticipate that Parkit may remain active in pursing tuck-in Canadian industrial facility acquisitions from both related and third-party vendors in the next 12-18 months. Parkit may also remain active in buying back stock given Parkit’s wide gap between its share price and its estimated NAV/share,” said Mr. Sturges.