Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Following a second-quarter earnings beat from TFI International Inc. (TFII-N, TFII-T), National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen expects “end market improvement momentum to continue.”
“We remain confident that a broader industry pricing rebound driven by lower industry supply will drive ongoing margin expansion for TFII in the coming quarters with further potential upside from improving demand, particularly in the industrial sectors to which the company is more exposed. Given that the trucking supply reductions are primarily a function of regulatory changes in the U.S. and Canada, this trucking up-cycle has the potential to be more long-lasting than has historically been the case.”
After the bell on Monday, the Montreal-based transportation and logistics provider reported total revenue for the quarter of US$2.29-billion, a gain of 12 per cent year-over-year (from $2.038-billion) exceeding both Mr. Doerksen’s US$2.129-billion estimate and the consensus projection on the Street of US$2.216-billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at US$1.85, jumping 38 per cent (or 51 US cents) and also topping forecasts (US$1.56 and US$1.60, respectively).
“Q2 EPS handily exceeded management’s guidance of $1.50-$1.60,” said Mr. Doerksen. “The beat was driven mainly by better than forecast margins in the TL [Truckload] and Logistics segments alongside higher revenue in LTL [Less Than Truckload].
‘Management introduced Q3/26 EPS guidance of $1.70-$1.80 versus our prior forecast for $1.67 and the consensus of $1.65. While Q3 is typically a modestly seasonally weaker quarter versus Q2 for TFII, we suspect management is being conservative with its guide noting that the company has beaten its quarterly EPS guide in each of the last three quarters."
After increasing his third-quarter, full-year 2026, and 2027 estimates “mainly due to better than expected margin trends in the TL segment,” Mr. Doerksen moved his target for TFI shares to US$161 from US$160, reaffirming an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is US$170.
“[TFII’s] valuation still below peers,” he said. “Based on our updated 2027 estimates (which assumes earnings that are still recovering to full potential), TFII shares are trading at 19.1 times P/E versus the weighted average peer group at 23.9 times. Based on 2027 EV/EBITDA, TFII is trading at 10.1 times, which is a slight discount to the weighted average peers at 10.8 times. Based on our 2 027 free cash flow forecast, the current FCF yield is 8.3 per cent.”
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* Citi’s Ariel Rosa to US$180 from US$182 with a “buy” rating.
“We heard mixed reactions from investors, with some expressing frustration at the sluggish improvement in US LTL including the somewhat-disappointing LTL margin guide, but we were encouraged by the strength in its Truckload and Logistics segments coupled with management’s commentary on ‘incremental pricing opportunities especially within LTL’. The solid ‘beat-and-raise’ quarter coupled with a view that the TL pricing environment should be ‘way more permanent’ keeps us positive on TFII,” said Mr. Rosa.
* Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $263 from $260 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“We increase our EPS estimates following a solid Q2 beat and a conservative yet strong Q3 guidance. Freight cycle is clearly improving fast due particularly to tightening capacity (drivers and low-quality carriers), while industrial demand is also recovering and the broader economy is holding up steady. TFII is witnessing solid pricing and margin trends, especially in its TL segment, which is levered to the industrial economy with large specialized flatbed operations. TL dynamics are also helping improve the competitive landscape in LTL, although demand remains relatively muted and management is focusing on pricing following the surge in demand from 3PLs, which points to a stronger turnaround in 2027. This year’s EPS is surprisingly rebounding quickly to between 2023 and 2024 levels. We continue to believe that TFII’s run-rate EPS has potential to hit the prior peak (2022) as early as mid/late-2027. Stock remains attractively valued vs. U.S. TL and LTL carriers,” said Mr. Gupta.
* RBC’s Walter Spracklin to US$171 from US$158 with an “outperform” rating.
“TFII delivered on a substantial beat and raise, with EPS coming in at $1.85, well ahead of consensus $1.60 (and guidance of $1.50-$1.60). Further, the company issued Q3 guidance of $1.70-$1.80, above street $1.67. The key take-away: the significant rise in truck rates (particularly in TL) is having a pronounced and immediate effect on margins; and we see further upside when pricing within the company’s LTL division follows suit (which we expect it will) and powerful operating leverage should volumes improve (which we expect as well). Taking numbers substantially higher,” said Mr. Spracklin.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $245 (Canadian) from $221 with a “buy” rating.
“The beat was driven by improved EPS and OR expectations, prompting management to raise its 3Q guidance. While TFII is up 41 per cent year-to-date (vs the TSX at up 12 per cent), we continue to like the name and see further upside given management’s multiple levers to create value. Beyond M&A supported by strong FCF, a recovery in LTL and flatbed, and internal margin initiatives, AI and autonomous trucking have emerged as additional catalysts that could further enhance TFII’s long-term competitive position and help secure its legacy,” said Mr. Poirier.
* Stifel’s J. Bruce Chan to US$160 from US$150 with a “hold” rating.
“We think TFI’s results were a microcosm of what we’re observing across subsectors in the group,” said Mr. Chan. “Truckload remains the most acutely affected by supply-driven tightening, which we see as having meaningful and enduring influence on pricing. Logistics is also seeing more activity from tightening supply, particularly in specialty. But pricing tailwinds are slower to materialize in LTL, while demand remains stable, but muted, in our view. Against this backdrop, Trucking and Logistics performance exceeded our expectations, but LTL wasn’t quite able to offset residual drag from UPS-era underinvestment in the network. The LTL turnaround is still ongoing, but TFI was caught a bit offsides this quarter by pricing in 3PL and blanket business that was too low, leading to an influx of less desirable freight. Efforts are underway to address a bit more than 1/3 of the LTL book exposed to this end market, but that will take at least a quarter or two, in our view. TFI should be a beneficiary of an inflecting freight cycle and the biggest opportunity remains the U.S. LTL business, in our view. We think TFI is getting better, but the amount of wood left to chop and the slower turn to the LTL cycle in the context of valuation has us opting for clearer relative winners in the group.”
* BofA Securities’ Ken Hoexter to US$187 from US$178 with a “buy” rating.
TD Cowen analyst Michael Tupholme thinks the Street’s “mixed” reaction to WSP Global Inc.’s (WSP-T) $7.5-billion takeover offer for Dutch engineering company Arcadis N.V is “understandable.”
“WSP’s proposed acqusition of Arcadis is expected to yield healthy synergies and be accretive,” he said. “However, there is uncertainty on terms, soft revs/EBITDA are a concern to some, and the deal isn’t alleviating existing investor concerns re: AI risks. As such, reaction appears likely to remain mixed near term. Still, we see attractive value in standalone WSP, but note patience likely required given AI overhang.”
The Montreal-based firm’s shares were up almost 7 per cent on Monday after finishing just 0.3 per cent on Friday after confirming the revised non-binding proposal.
“On one side, encouragingly, under its latest proposal, the deal is accretive on an EV/EBITDA basis & on EPS (high single digit percentage bef. synergies and mid-teens percentage with synergies, per WSP),” said Mr. Tupholme. “Cost/efficiency synergies appear attractive (estimated by us at 3-4 per cent of acquired net rev.), while rev. synergies are also likely over time. Meanwhile, strategically, the deal is expected to yield geographic, data, domain expertise, client and capability benefits.
“On the flip side, several concerns exist. If a deal can be reached (still far from clear given Arcadis’ response), there remains uncertainty re: price, terms and financial metrics (i.e., sweetened offer may be needed). Also, softer revs/EBITDA & weak margins at Arcadis are a concern (though we note that WSP has a history of improving acquired co’s) and execution risk exists (would be WSP’s largest ever acquisition). Lastly, the proposed deal isn’t alleviating (and for some may exacerbate) existing investor concerns re: AI disruption risk (despite WSP’s belief that the deal will benefit its AI adoption). Investor feedback suggests at least some would prefer WSP reduce leverage and buy back its own stock vs. pursuing M&A at this time.”
Keeping a “buy” rating for WSP shares, he cut his target to $255 from $307 “given lower sector multiples on AI disruption concerns.” The average is $283.
When Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. (PET-T) reports its second-quarter financial results on Aug. 11, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel is expecting to see a “tepid top line as consumer caution persists.”
“PET’s shares continue to lag as value-oriented consumer spending weighs on the pet care category despite pet owner devotion,” she said in a client report titled Waiting for the treat.
“Our analysis indicates that as PET focuses on enhancing offering and value, and as the leading neighborhood pet retailer in Canada, PET remains well positioned to stabilize earnings growth and return capital to shareholders. 2026 outlook, moderated at Q1 to reflect promotional intensity and consumer value-seeking behaviour, should be achievable, with an infrastructure and commercial strategies to navigate the current environment and potentially gain share from marginal operators.”
For the quarter, Ms. Nattel is now projecting revenue will rise 2.6 per cent year-over-year to $288.1-million from $280.6-million, but earnings per share will fall 7.9 per cent to 35 cents from 38 cents “as value-seeking behaviour intensified post the March fuel-price surge.” Both estimates fall in line with expectations on the Street.
“Our forecasts reflect heightened promotional activity as PET leans into its value proposition, demand headwinds in discretionary categories, and targeted marketing/ promotional spend to drive improving same-store sales,” the analyst said. “As we move through 2026 and beyond and as PET surfaces efficiencies from prior period investments, we should see accelerating EBITDA/EPS growth, anticipating 2025-27 EBITDA/ EPS CAGR’s [compound annual growth rates] 1.5 [er cent/7.5 per cent.
“PET continues to enjoy capital-light, high return business model. PET reached a significant milestone in late Q2/2025 with the commissioning of the Calgary DC [distribution centre], concluding the $100-million multi-year supply chain transformation. With moderating supply chain infrastructure investments, the underlying high FCF, capital-light nature of PET’s business model is becoming evident despite tepid top line performance. Our model makes productive use of forecasted more than $100-million of FCF in 2026E/2027E to further execute on the NCIB and sustain leverage in the 2.0-times range.”
Ms. Nattel does think Pet Valu’s current share price “represents attractive entry point” with the “key catalyst to multiple expansion likely improving momentum.”
However, she reduced her target to $24 from $26, keeping an “outperform” rating, to “reflect slower forecasted growth amidst the ongoing consumer weakness, and related multiple compression.” The average is $23.
“Target valuation reflects high FCF conversion/returns, relative industry stability and growth runway, offset by lacklustre SSS growth, well below pre-IPO and 2020-2023 levels,” she added.
Ahead of the release of K-Bro Linen Inc.’s (KBL-T) quarterly results on Aug. 4, National Bank Financial analyst Ahmed Abdullah sees valuations across the sector “moving higher on elevated M&A activity” and expects similar gains for the Edmonton-based company as it continues will the process of integrating its £1.6-billion acquisition U.K.-based Stellar Mayan Ltd.
“Since our April 9 initiation on KBL, the stock price rose 36 per cent,” he explained. “This corresponds with peer share prices moving higher (comp sheet peers are on average 6 per cent off 52-week highs), along with EV/EBITDA multiples being up 15 per cent. KBL’s valuation spread vs. peers remains relatively constant. This is partly explained by higher M&A activity in the space; majority are PE related with limited disclosures. However, the Cintas purchase of UniFirst (multiple of 8-times EBITDA post-synergies) is the main high profile transaction this year.”
With adjustments to his foreign exchange assumptions and Stellar Mayan contribution, Mr. Abdullah made modest increases to his quarterly projections with revenue now expected to come in at $149.5-million, falling in line with the Street’s forecast of $150.3-million.
“We expect Canadian revenue growth of 3.9 per cent, split evenly between price and volume, and UK organic growth of 1.6 per cent, tempered by seasonality at Fishers/Shortridge,” he said. “Our Adj. EBITDA forecast (largely unchanged) is $28.2-million (consensus estimate $28.3-million) or up 18.7 per cent year-over-year, with margins down 214 basis points to 18.8 per cent on SM integration and higher energy costs. Diesel could create a 50 basis points annualized margin headwind. Combined diesel and natural gas pressure could reach 120 basis points if not passed through, with 50% of UK gas and all Canada exposure unhedged.”
Given higher industry valuations, Mr. Abdullah raised his target for K-Bro shares to $54 from $51, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $50.50.
“Upside to our 2027 forecasts could come from stronger revenue growth and faster-than-expected synergy realization as KBL progresses through integration and margins recover,” he noted.
Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li thinks Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-T) is “well-positioned for growth through market share gains despite macro pressures.”
“A short report on June 16 called into question the sustainability of GIL’s revenue growth, causing the shares to decline 19 per cent,” he said, previewing the release of its second-quarter results on Thursday. “The shares have barely recovered and remain depressed at 10 times forward P/E. We expect reiteration of guidance, including improved visibility to achieving the mid-point of management’s full-year revenue guidance (per consensus) and FCF of more than US$850-million, to be potential catalysts. Others include a sequential improvement in DSO and update on the potential divestiture of Hanes Australia.”
On June 16, the Montreal-based clothing manufacturer reiterated its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance, which previously estimated full-year revenue of US$6-billion to US$6.2-billion and free cash flow above US$850-million, after Jehoshaphat Research, a Florida-based investment firm, published a report alleging Gildan has been incentivizing clients to order more product than they may need in a given quarter to boost in its revenue.
“We expect it to reiterate guidance with the 2Q results,” said Mr. Li. “With sales down 8 per cent year-over-year in 1H, mainly due to destocking related to Hanes integration, management’s full-year guidance implies a strong positive inflection in 2H between 5 per cent (low end) and 12 per cent (high end). Consensus is near the midpoint.
“While macro pressures continue to weigh on industry demand, we expect growth at GIL to be supported by continuing market share gains across all channels. For wholesale, we believe GIL’s high product availability, strong brand growth (Comfort Colors, American Apparel, Champion, ALLPRO), product innovation and compelling prices position it to take share from weaker competitors.”
For the quarter, Mr. Li is now projecting a 7-per-cent year-over-year decline in sales with adjusted earnings per share of US$1.10, a rise of 13 US cents from the same period a year ago but narrowly lower than the consensus of US$1.12."
He reaffirmed a “buy” rating and $108 target for Gildan shares. The average is $107.43.
“GIL trades at 10 times forward P/E, well below its long-term average of 14–15 times,“ he said. ”We believe GIL’s valuation is attractive given its more than 20-per-cent EPS CAGR [compound annual growth rate] and strong FCF."
When Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR-N, QSR-T) releases its second-quarter financial report on Aug. 6, RBC Capital Markets analyst Logan Reich is expecting momentum at Burger King to continue with “all eyes on Tim Hortons.”
“Tim Hortons continues to dominate the narrative on QSR as investors contemplate the relative impact of macro pressures on the Canadian and U.S. consumer,” he said in a note.
“We think Canadian consumer is relatively weaker and given TH drives 40 per cent of the total EBIT, the brand needs to show signs of comp stablization/improvement for the stock to work, in our view. BK momentum likely continued into Q2 but we don’t think acceleration from Q1’s 5.8 per cent will be good enough to offset any potential TH softness, hence we lean cautious into the print.”
Mr. Conrad is currently projecting total revenue of US$2.593-billion and adjusted earnings per share of US$1.06 for the quarter. Both are higher than the results of a year ago (US$2.41-billion and 75 cents, respectively) and narrowly above the Street’s expectations (by 2.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent).
“Tim Hortons is the key driver of the stock given it drives 40 per cent of EBIT,” he added." Debate heading into the print is on Canada macro vs. U.S. macro and competitive dynamics. From a same-store-sales perspective, we think Canada has weakened on a relative basis as higher gas prices likely has a larger impact. We model a 74 bps miss on SSS in Q2. Further, population growth is expected to be flat in ’26 from 3.0 per cent in ’24, which is a key driver of category deceleration. Further, while the brand continues to take share, competition from SBUX/MCD appears to be getting more intense in the near term and Dunkin reportedly reentering the market has dampened sentiment around the pace of further share gains. The upcoming 2H26 loyalty partnership with Canadian Tire could be an incremental driver of comps given their 12 million rewards members vs. TH’s 7 million. Lastly, we think unit growth could accelerate over the next couple of years. Canadian population has grown 11 per cent since 2019 vs. TH locations largely flat.”
While he sees “negative” sentiment for Restaurant Brands and its shares heading into the print, Mr. Conrad kept an “outperform” rating and US$85 target, matching the average on the Street.
“We continue to view QSR as a top idea among the global franchised fast food group. We see potentially improving Burger King U.S. trends, accelerating development, and shifts in capital allocation (toward growth investments and reduction in leverage) driving stock performance. Relative valuation for QSR remains compelling (15 times 2027 estimated P/E versus global peer average of 18 times), in our view, particularly as we are taking a more cautious stance on the overall group,” he concluded.
In response to Monday’s announcement of the launch of a strategic review in an effort to unlock shareholder value, ATB Cormark analyst Gavin Fairweather raised Alithya Group Inc. (ALYA-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“Following a determination at the board level that the company’s market value was not reflecting the intrinsic value of the business, a strategic review has been initiated,” he said. “The review will consider various alternatives, including a merger, privatization, sale, strategic investments, or continuing to operate as a public company.
“The news comes with the stock price trading near all-time lows since its go-public in 2018. The company has been caught up alongside the broader sector in fears that AI will be a deflationary force on its business. In addition, macro conditions, particularly in the Canadian business and a refocusing of the business on higher value engagements has led to negative organic growth in recent financials. With valuations of most public IT Services players depressed while private market valuations have remained more consistent, deploying capital on accretive M&A has become more challenging.”
Mr. Fairweather thinks the process is “in the early stages, and was not catalyzed by a specific offer.”
“We suspect the company has received offers in the past,” he added. “Alithya is in the process of hiring an advisor to assist with the process. Given the current discount to intrinsic value, we think Management and the board will take offers which unlock value seriously.
“We note that the U.S. business which focuses on niches such as Microsoft ERP for process manufacturing and Oracle ERP for hospital networks are performing well and highly profitable, while recent transactions in the Salesforce ecosystem have crossed at high valuations (ALYA acquired eVerge in 2025). The Canadian segment, which has seen larger organic declines and lower profitability of late, would carry less strategic value in a sale process. We note that with multi-voting shares in the cap table, we think any transaction would need support of 2/3rds of votes and a simple majority of shareholders.”
His target for shares of the Montreal-based company’s shares remains $1.60. The average is $1.59.
In other analyst actions:
* TD Cowen’s Tim James raised his Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) target to $306 from $292, keeping a “hold” rating. The average on the Street is $338.89.
“We forecast [second-quarter] revenue of $2.12-billion (consensus: $2.13-billion), up 5 per cent year-over-year, on pricing, partially offset by deliveries (down 2 units year-over-year) and Services (down 7 per cent),” said Mr. James. “We estimate adj. EBITDA of $317-million (cons: $317 million), up 7 per cent year-over-year. We view the fundamental story as very solid, but the market has clearly been taking a more optimistic approach than us to valuation multiples. We will revisit the sustainability of the recent re-rating (again) with the Q2 report. Expect commentary to focus on demand/order activity, defence, and capital returns.”
* Mr. James also increased his Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR-T) target by $1 to $33 with a “buy” rating. The average is $30.88.
“We don’t expect Q2 will provide a notable catalyst for Chorus shares but believe stable earnings and more information from management regarding the Voyageur business and opportunities will lead to a gradual move towards our target over 12 months. In addition, we believe capital returns (buybacks & dividends) should continue to reward investors. Chorus has no exposure to jet fuel prices. The leveling out of CPA earnings declines is expected in 2026/2027,” said Mr. James.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Kenric Tyghe lowered Planet 13 Holdings Inc. (PLTH-CN) to “hold” from “buy” with a 21-cent target, down from 25 cents, in response to its definitive agreement to be acquired by Vireo Growth Inc. (VREO-CN).
“Strategically, the deal is a footprint-deepening transaction concentrated in two key markets for Vireo: Nevada and Florida. In Nevada, Vireo absorbs Planet 13’s flagship Las Vegas superstore (the largest single dispensary in the U.S.), a second dispensary, and active cultivation/production with expansion capacity. In Florida, Vireo acquires Planet 13’s 33 dispensaries, cultivation and manufacturing facilities. Vireo is expected to operate 265 dispensaries across 15 states pro forma, making it the largest U.S. cannabis operator by dispensary count,” he said.
* Ahead of its earnings release on Friday before the bell, ATB Cormark’s David McFadgen trimmed his Telus Corp. (T-T) target to $16.50 from $19, which is the average, with a “sector perform” rating, citing “concerns about its balance sheet being leveraged, the sustainability of its dividend (resulting in a high dividend yield) and competitive intensity.”
“We are expecting Telus to report low single-digit revenue growth during the quarter driven by TTech,” he added.
* ATB Cormark’s Jeff Fenwick reduced his target for Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T) to $51 from $55 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $59.
“We expect TSU to issue Q2 results next week, likely August 6. While the insurance industry is now well into a softening cycle, we expect TSU to continue to produce solid premium growth, as its exposure to E&S lines, alongside the continued maturation of its US Surety footprint, will contribute positively. Q2 will offer evidence of this,” said Mr. Fenwick.