Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Desjardins Securities’ retail analyst Chris Li said his recent pricing survey reconfirmed Dollarama Inc.’s (DOL-T) "compelling value proposition."
"On a price-per-unit basis, we estimate DOL is 30– 50 per cent lower than WMT and AMZN,“ he said. ”We believe DOL’s compelling value and breadth of product offering should support continuing solid traffic and moderate price increases. We estimate a slight uptick in unit price inflation to 1.9 per cent in 1Q FY26 from 1.6 per cent in 4Q FY25, partly driven by an increase in name brand food consumables, possibly in relation to retaliatory tariffs."
In a research note released Tuesday, Mr. Li said he expects the Montreal-based discount retailer to display signs of same-store sales growth normalization and “a continuing strong earnings contribution from Dollarcity” when it reports its first-quarter fiscal 2026 on Wednesday before the bell. He’s projecting earnings per share of 83 cents, falling in line with the Street’s expectations and up 6 cents from the same period a year ago.
“Other key expectations: (1) Sales growth of 6.7 per cent includes SSSG of 3.7 per cent (vs 5.6 per cent a year ago), in line with consensus and full-year guidance of 3–4 per cent. We expect continuing strong traffic (4.2 per cent), partly offset by a modest decline in basket; (2) largely stable gross margin (lower logistics costs offset by mix shift to lower margin consumables); (3) largely stable SG&A expense rate; and (4) continuing strong earnings contribution from Dollarcity (45 per cent year-over-year), driven by a higher ownership stake vs a year ago and robust top-line growth (new stores and solid SSSG) more than offsetting start-up costs in Mexico," the analyst said.
Maintaining his “buy” recommendation for Dollarama shares, Mr. Li hiked his target to $185 from $165. The average target on the Street is $174.61, according to LSEG data.
“While our target price offers limited upside, we expect DOL’s outperformance to continue in the near term, supported by highly visible earnings growth (sustainable low-double-digit EPS growth over the longer term) and investors’ preference for safety during economic uncertainty,” he said.
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National Bank Financial analyst John Shao sees Vitalhub Corp. (VHI-T) currently at “a convenient spot to harvest future opportunities by leveraging its already well-oiled M&A engine.”
In a client report released Tuesday, he initiated coverage of the Toronto-based provider of health care software with an “outperform” recommendation, emphasizing its organic growth and “disciplined” M&A.
“On one hand, the Company has already passed the early stage of a roll-up story, and its ability to deploy capital has already been proven, leading to lower execution risk,” said Mr. Shao.
“On the other hand, the Company’s scale is not too big to become a victim of the law of large numbers (e.g., smaller deals that don’t move the needle). As such, executing smaller deals (which tend to carry lower valuations and a high ROIC) will remain VitalHub’s bread and butter, further reducing that execution risk.”
Calling it an “emerging leader in consolidating market opportunities in healthcare and adjacent verticals,” the analyst pointed to several factors in justifying his bullish stance, including its base business having already reached “the Rule of 40” as well as its “proven ability to acquire an integrate.”
“What sets VitalHub apart from other Canadian Tech roll-ups is its double-digit organic growth at an average of 16 per cent since 2022,” said Mr. Shao. “This robust growth underscores VitalHub’s strong market position and highlights its ability to identify high-growth targets while successfully executing cross-selling strategies and implementing price increases. Considering the organic Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth and Adj. EBITDA, VitalHub’s base business has already met the Rule of 40 criteria, on which M&A adds incremental upside.”
“VitalHub has executed more than 20 acquisitions since 2017, with more than $120-million of capital deployed. Its M&A prowess is supported by our quantitative analysis that suggests a 25-per-cent Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Our market analysis also suggests a large pool of candidates for VitalHub to continue to execute its acquisition strategy.”
Also touting the strength of its management team and a balance sheet that is likely to enable to become a capital compounder, Mr. Shao set a target of $14 per share. The current average is $13.78.
“For a software name that’s expected to maintain its growth momentum, the biggest risk we see at this moment is macro-related growth headwinds, as global trade and economic uncertainty have materially heightened since the start of the year,” he added. “However, we see multiple layers of protection as more than 80 per cent of VitalHub’s revenue is recurring and based on subscription term contracts. The healthcare and social services target verticals are also considered to be stable and high quality, as reflected in VitalHub’s low customer churn. Lastly, if you consider the ultimate funding source, those customers are essentially funded by governments, thus adding another layer of protection in an economic downturn.”
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With “a track record of building projects on time and on budget,” G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN-T) is likely to derisk its single-asset-producer status with the advancement of the Oko West project in Northwest Guyana, according to Desjardins Securities analyst Allison Carson.
“With several upcoming catalysts, we expect GMIN to continue to re-rate as it achieves these milestones,” she added.
In a report released Tuesday, she initiated coverage of Brossard, Que.-based company with a “buy” recommendation, pointing to several positive attributes, including: the expertise of its leadership team; “peer-leading” production growth; “good-quality assets with tier one cost profiles” and its funding growth in “a non-dilutive manner.”
“GMIN is led by a strong group of mine builders with a track record of building projects, including GMIN’s Tocantinzinho (TZ) mine in Brazil. TZ achieved commercial production in 2024 after a two-year build and is expected to achieve nameplate capacity in 2Q25,” said Ms. Carson. “The Oko West project in Guyana was acquired in 2024 and is advancing quickly, with early-stage development work already started, environmental permits expected in 2Q25 and a formal construction decision in 2H25. We model Oko West construction being funded in a non-dilutive manner with cash, FCF from TZ and a US$450-million financing package. First gold from Oko West is expected in 2028, which should increase GMIN’s consolidated annual production to 497koz in 2028 from 187koz in 2025 —this represents peer-leading production growth of 166 per cent within three years. On a consolidated basis, GMIN should have a robust production profile, with AISC [all-in sustaining costs] of US $1,150/oz. The company rounds off its asset pipeline with its most recent acquisition of an exploration-stage asset in Brazil, the Gurupi project. We expect GMIN to continue to execute on its buy, build, operate model, and while Gurupi could be the next development project, we also believe GMIN is likely to remain active in the M&A space."
She set a one-year forward target price of $25 per share. The current average is $24.90.
“We believe GMIN should trade in line with peers due to its strong management team, quality of assets, record of project execution and growth potential,” said Mr. Carson.
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In a report released Tuesday titled Asset quality, and then some, Desjardins Securities analyst Bryce Adams initiated coverage of NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T) with a “buy” recommendation, calling its cornerstone asset, the Rook I project in the Arrow deposit of Saskatchewan, “a globally significant, advanced-stage asset, representing one of the highest-quality uranium deposits.”
“We expect NexGen to become a significant new source of nuclear fuel amid a potentially bifurcating uranium market and an anticipated structural supply deficit, supported by accelerating reactor builds in the U.S. and globally,” he added.
Mr. Adams sees the large-scale Arrow deposit as “the key value driver” for NexGen, expecting it to become the largest uranium producer in the Athabasca basin. He estimates production of at 21 million pounds annually with below-average cash costs of US$10.08 per pound over an initial 11-year life of mine (LOM).
“We view the permitting risk as low as CNSC staff has completed the technical review of, and accepted, the EIS and raised no further issues,” he said. “The last step before permitting are CNSC panel hearings scheduled in November 2025 and February 2026, with the final decision expected within 60 days thereafter.
“As of 1Q25, the company has $435-million in cash, $270-million in U3O8 inventory and $276-million available under the ATM program, sufficient for near-term liquidity. In early 2026, post permitting, we expect NexGen to finalize financing and formal construction commencement. We estimate a $2.2-billlion funding requirement. In our model, we assume 68-per-cent project debt, with the remainder spread equally between a prepayment facility and equity. We see potential for the financing package to optimize the capital structure in a more attractive manner.”
Pointing to “a preferred jurisdiction, a high-quality asset and project permits as an approaching key milestone,” Mr. Adams set a target of $13.50 per share. The average on the Street is $13.30.
“We view Rook I as a globally significant, high-quality asset,” he concluded.
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National Bank Financial analyst Matt Kornack said a recent property tour of Northview Residential REIT’s (NRR.UN-T) assets in Iqaluit highlighted its unique and defensive portfolio positioning."
The Calgary-based REIT operates 912 apartments, or 34 per cent of the local stock, in Nunavut’s capital as well as 42 executive suites and 214,000 square feet of commercial space.
“While we went into NRR’s Iqaluit property tour knowing that the market and offering were unique, the visit reinforced this view and highlighted some positive attributes this portfolio brings to the REIT from a defensiveness standpoint,” said Mr. Kornack. “Northview has a dominant position in a market with high barriers to entry while providing a significant amount of income with steady growth prospects and materially higher cap rates (vs. IFRS values). Replicating their position, which is relatively youthful with regards to property age, would cost significantly more to build in today’s inflationary environment.
“All-in-all we came away with a better understanding of the REIT’s northern exposure and a view that this is additive to the investment opportunity. While lack of trading liquidity/ownership structure remain an impediment to owning the name, valuation and portfolio positioning meet the moment from a risk/return standpoint.”
Maintaining his “sector perform” recommendation for Northview units, the analyst raised his target to $17.50 from $16, citing a “tighter” net asset value discount. The average on the Street is $16.75.
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In other analyst actions:
* JP Morgan’s John Royall cut his target for Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD-T) to $84 from $88 with an “overweight” rating. The average target on the Street is $82.93.