Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil thinks his “positive thesis” on Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI-T) that stemmed from fourth-quarter 2024 weakness has “played out, with growth opportunities presented appearing longer-dated in the context of current market conditions.”
With its shares outperforming and approaching his target price ahead of last week’s site tour and corporate update, he decided to downgrade his recommendation for the Calgary-based company to “hold” from “buy” previously.
“Our previous investment thesis for Gibson was based on value recognition for marketing normalization as well as 2025 capital spending and follow-on growth in infrastructure performance,” he said. “This has now occurred, in our view. Note that following the Q4/24 weakness, we upgraded Gibson to Buy, with a view that investors were not properly incorporating a recovery in marketing and a meaningful uplift in Gateway volumes in 2026 (full report).
“Gibson is currently trading at a 2026 estimated EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.5 times, relatively in line with its 10-year mean of 10.0x. Our updated estimates contemplate a 7.5-per-cent year-over-year increase in Infrastructure segment EBITDA, reflecting an 20-per-cent uplift in Gateway volumes from 2024 levels (dredging/Cactus II projects). In the marketing segment, our $80 million estimate contemplates profitability returning to the lower end of its ‘base’ guidance range of $80 million-$120 million and a significant recovery from its 2025 guidance of $20 million-$40 million.”
Mr. MacNeil raised his target for Gibson shares by $1 to $25. The average target on the Street is $25.33, according to LSEG data.
“Consistent with our view, the prevailing share price now prices-in a clear path to normalization for Gibson’s Marketing segment, as well as a full-value recognition for its 2025 capital program and follow-on growth in its predominantly contracted Infrastructure segment,” he said. “Gibson is currently trading at a 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.5 times, relatively in line with its historical 10-year mean of 10.0 times, and we believe that Gibson is appropriately valued at this time.”
Elsewhere, Raymond James’ Michael Barth increased his target to $30.50 from $30 with a “strong buy” rating.
“Following an impressive tour of the Gateway facility, we revisited our Street-high 2026 estimates and came away comfortable that consensus is too conservative. We see multiple catalysts later this year and into 2026, continue to see great value in the stock today, and reiterate our Strong Buy rating,” said Mr. Barth.
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In response to “strong” share price gains recently, Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen lowered his rating for Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-T) on Tuesday.
“We are downgrading our rating on Nutrien Ltd. to Market Perform (vs. Outperform prior) based upon the company’s outsized share price gains in recent months (year-to-date: up 40.4 per cent vs. TSX: up 7.4 per cent) and diminishing commensurate upside to our target (unchanged). While the recent settlement of marquee potash contracts (China &India) likely supports additional spot momentum, we’re mindful that key benchmarks have all staged strong moves since our Dec-24 upgrade (Brazil: up 25 per cent, SE Asia: up 17 per cent, U.S. Midwest: up 19 per cent), and further upside will likely be tempered by several factors (affordability/seasonality/supply). At the same time, the recent retreat in corn prices from their Feb-25 highs (down 13.6 per cent trailing four months) represents a clear decoupling vs. NTR’s outstanding share performance over the same time period (up 18.2 per cent), a dynamic that’s rarely proven sustainable.
“Taken together, while we continue to admire management’s solid progress toward its long-term objectives, we think it prudent to step to the sidelines until a more attractive entry point emerges.”
Mr. Hansen’s target for the Saskatoon-based company’s U.S.-listed shares remains US$68 exceeding the average on the Street of US$63.16.
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Following a period of share price appreciation across the industry, Desjardins Securities analyst Bryce Adams sees Cameco Corp. (CCO-T) as a leader, believing it “remains a go-to name for uranium investors.”
“Market sentiment has shifted positively,” he said. “In our view, Cameco, with its high-quality asset base, vertical integration and strong balance sheet, is best positioned to capture market tailwinds. This was highlighted by the incremental US$170-million of attributable EBITDA expected in 2Q25 from the Dukovany contract, and media reports that WEC is in talks with U.S. officials about deploying 10 large nuclear reactors in the US. We include the Dukovany increase in our model, as well as a 50-per-cent chance of a similar event in 2026. We see potential upside to our base case estimates.”
In a research note released Tuesday, Mr. Adams outlined several recent developments that have improved market sentiment , including Meta Platforms Inc.’s 20-year deal with Constellation Energy Corp. to buy nuclear power and the World Bank’s policy reversal on nuclear energy and its plan to now support efforts to extend the life of existing reactors and support grid upgrades.
After updating his model to factor in the previously announced one-time EBITDA increase of US$170-million from Westinghouse Electric’s (WEC) participation in the Dukovany power plant and a 50-per-cent chance of a similar event in 2026, the analyst raised his target for Cameco shares to $105 from $85 with a “buy” rating. The average target on the Street is $90.96.
“Cameco remains our preferred stock,” he concluded.
Elsewhere, Raymond James analyst Brian MacArthur raised his target to $102 from $96 with an “outperform” rating.
“CCO provides investors with lower-risk exposure to the uranium market given its diversification of sources,” he said. “These sources are supported by a portfolio of long-term contracts that provide somedownside protection in periods of depressed spot uranium prices, while maintaining optionality to higher uranium prices. In addition, CCO has multiple operations curtailed that could be brought back should uranium prices increase. Although the 2021 tax court decision applies only to the 2003, 2005, and 2006 tax years, we view it as a positive for CCO given we believe it could be relevant in determining the outcome for other years and reduces risk related to the CRA dispute.”
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ATB Capital Markets analyst Patrick O’Rourke is taking a positive view of Strathcona Resources Ltd.’s (SCR-T) strategic shift away from the Montney region of northeast B.C. and northwest Alberta to steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD-T).
Coming off a research restriction related to the Calgary-based company’s sale of its Groundbirch asset to Tourmaline Oil Corp. for US$291.5-million, he said he’s bullish on Strathcona’s US$2.85-billion sale of its Montney assets an proposed $6.7-billion takeover bid for MEG Energy Corp. as well as its $45-million acquisition of the Hardisty rail terminal and a 15-per-cent base dividend increase that came alongside its first-quarter results.
Andrew Willis: China’s ‘big catcher’s mitt’ for Canadian oil helps MEG spurn Strathcona
“Together, these transactions represent a shift in SCR’s operational strategy, exiting the Montney and focusing on long-life in situ oil sands operations,” he said in a client note. “The proposed combination would unite two heavy oil ‘pure plays’ focused on SAGD oil sands development, both with similar netbacks and RLIs. The merger would create Canada’s fifth-largest oil producer and fourth-largest SAGD producer, possessing some of North America’s largest proved oil reserves; this scale is expected to facilitate achieving an investment=grade credit rating.
“On our base case standalone basis, we now project SCR with 2026 estimated production of 123.8 mbbl/d [thousand barrels per day], with 2025 exit net debt of $212-million, growing to production of 183 mbbl/d by 2030e, with growth funded within CF [cash flow] at an average price of $US60/bbl WTI (inclusive of $1.20 per share in annual dividends).”
On Monday, MEG urged its shareholders to reject the hostile takeover offer, calling the bid inadequate and not in their best interest. The board also launched a strategic review to explore alternatives that could lead to a better offer than MEG’s current plan to be a standalone company.
“In SCR’s view, the MEG takeover offer has a unique financial dynamic where both sets of shareholders can potentially benefit from accretion (along with a premium for MEG shareholders), a potential pro forma investment-grade status, and significant potential synergies ($175-million initially identified),” said Mr. O’Rourke. “If the takeover is successful, the pro forma business would be a unique North American long-life, low-decline oil company without mines or refineries, with an SCR-suggested net debt of $1.5-billion and total EV of $13.3-billion, operating with 220 mboe/d of production, and would be backed by 458.5 mmbbl of PDP reserves (2P 3,958.7 mmbbl) with a 2P RLI of 49 year.”
Reiterating his “sector perform” rating for Strathcona shares, Mr. O’Rourke raised his one-year target to $35 from $32. The average target on the Street is $31.80.
“We note that due to the near-term uncertainty around the MEG acquisition, our rating remains at Sector Perform, given there is no clear line of sight on the go-forward business following the Montney disposition; the Company has created significant optionality by way of its clean balance sheet and capacity including the potential MEG acquisition, or alternatively another accretive acquisition using its financial capacity, or potentially a large distribution to current shareholders that returns the long-life, low-decline asset portfolio to a more appropriate leverage profile and capital structure.”
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When Empire Company Ltd. (EMP.A-T) reports its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results before the bell on Thursday, Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li expects to see continued “solid” food same-store sales growth momentum, partly offset by elevated operating expenses due to higher share-based compensation from its strong share price.
“As macro conditions improve, supporting greater earnings consistency (8–10-per-cent earnings per share growth), EMP’s steep valuation discount could narrow, driving outsized share price performance," he predicted.
The analyst is now projecting quarterly EPS for the Nova Scotia-based supermarket chain operator of 71 cents, up 12 per cent year-over-year and matching the consensus forecast on the Street.
“Adjusting for fluctuations in other income/earnings from investments, we expect solid core EPS growth of 8 per cent year-over-year vs 9 per cent/12 per cent for L/MRU [Loblaw/Metro] for their most comparable quarter. Key expectations include: (1) food SSSG (ex fuel) of 3.3 per cent (largely in line vs consensus),” he said. “As with the previous quarter, we expect growth to be supported by higher unit volume, outsized growth in fresh (customers starting to trade up) and higher transaction counts, as well as contribution from the recently launched third-party e-commerce partnerships with Instacart and Uber Eats. This compares with 2.2 per cent for L and 3.9 per cent for MRU (ex Christmas week shift). (2) Gross margin increase of 25 basis points year-over-year (vs 45 basis points or 43 basis points ex fuel in 3Q FY25), slightly above management’s long-term target of 10–20 basis points. This compares with negative 10 basis points for L and 10 basis points for MRU. Key drivers include lower shrink, favourable mix and ongoing benefits from the various supply chain and operational efficiency initiatives. (3) We forecast Retail SG&A expense increasing by 4.4 per cent year-over-year (same rate of increase as 3Q FY25). Similar to the previous quarter, SG&A expense is impacted by share-based long-term incentive programs due to share price appreciation, higher retail labour costs driven by wage rate increases and continued investment in business expansion (Farm Boy, FreshCo and Voilà)."
While trimming his 2025 and 2026 EPS projections, Mr. Li increased his target for Empire shares to $55 from $50. The average target on the Street is $50.88.
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TD Cowen analyst Wayne Lam views Dundee Precious Metals Inc.’s (DPM-T) proposed $1.3-billion acquisition of Adriatic Metals plc “constructively” as it addresses the “longstanding” production gap stemming from the depletion of Ada Tepe in southern Bulgaria by the middle of 2026.
Under the deal announced on June 13, the Toronto-based miner will acquire 100-per-cent in the Vares operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, a producing silver-lead-zinc-gold underground mine.
“We see the asset as a solid strategic fit within the portfolio, given the company’s established history in Eastern Europe and operational expertise underground,” said Mr. Lam. “With the addition, we view production of 300 thousand ouncez plus of gold equivalent being sustained through 2027, offsetting depletion of Ada Tepe, with further step change to 500 Koz+ AuEq via the next leg of growth with Coka Rakita.”
The analyst did acknowledge Vares is not a risk-free venture, however he emphasized Dundee’s focus on recapitalizing and optimizing its potential.
“Since start of production in early 2024, Vares has faced various ramp-up issues, including (1) challenging ground conditions, (2) change in tailings location due to regulatory change in land access, and (3) adverse rainfall leading to greater water pumping requirements,” he said. “As such, DPM has commissioned an independent study alongside the acquisition, which entails a reevaluation of the asset. This includes a more measured approach, including an interim focus on mine development and longer ramp-up to run-rate capacity by year-end 2026 with no planned expansion, significantly higher budgeted mining and G&A unit costs, and $76-million in capex through 2026 towards drilling and infrastructure projects to recapitalize the asset.
“As such, we view this approach creating a stronger foundation for the asset, backed by a thorough due diligence. We estimate Vares adding production of 160 Koz/year AuEq at mine-site AISC of $1,140/oz AuEq over a 12.5-year mine life, supplementing current output from Chelopech and planned construction of Coka Rakita through the next decade.”
Seeing its valuation as discounted, Mr. Lam raised his target to $25 from $21, maintaining a “buy” recommendation. The average on the Street is $24.07.
“We estimate DPM trading at a 13-per-cent discount on spot NAV vs. Junior/Intermediate peers and a 15-per-cent discount on near-term EBITDA. In our view, having now addressed the production gap, which served as an overhang, we view potential re-rating, given sustained production amidst depletion of Ada Tepe and through future construction of Coka Rakita,” he said.
Elsewhere, Canaccord Genuity’s Jeremy Hoy bumped his target to $25 from $23 with a “buy” rating.
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In other analyst actions:
* Seeing High Liner Foods Inc. (HLF-T) offering investors a “compelling growth at a very reasonable price option in the Canadian small-cap landscape,” Raymond James’ Steve Hansen initiated coverage with an “outperform” rating and $22 target, matching the average on the Street.
“Management has a communicated growth strategy with focuses on organic growth (with an emphasis on the U.S. market) which will be coupled with opportunistic M&A,” he said. “This growth is coupled with the ability to pay an attractive dividend (current yield is 3.6 per cent) and pursue share repurchases (note that HLF repurchased 1.37 million or approximately 4.5 per cent of shares outstanding over the past year). The market values the name at a very compelling 2026E P/E of 7.8 times (representing a PEG ratio of 0.83 times), a valuation we view as extremely reasonable in the context of: 1. Where consumer peers trade; 2. A very shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy.”
* Ahead of its June 25 quarterly release, Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho increased his AGF Management Ltd. (AGF.B-T) target to $14 from $12.50 with a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $12.30.
“Quarter-to-date, we have seen a significant rebound in global markets, driving our AUM [assets under management] estimates higher as a result,” he said. “While retail net flows were soft after a busy RRSP season, we expect slight net inflows of $39-million for AGF. Interestingly, we have seen a quicker NCIB pace, which if it persists, should provide healthy share price support.”
“We foresee a few near- or medium-term positive catalysts: (1) retail net flows trending at or above industry; (2) redeployment of capital for organic growth to seed new private alt strategies and for share buybacks; (3) growth in fees/earnings from its private alt platform; and (4) M&A should be EPS-accretive.”
* After lowering his production estimates following a recent underground seismic event at its Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, RBC’s Sam Crittenden cut his Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN-T) target to $15 from $24, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $16.77.
“This is a big set back; however, we believe the mine can recover and we should get more clarity on the long term impact within the next 6-9 months. We believe the shares are already reflecting a lot of the downside risk, so we keep our Outperform, speculative risk, rating,” he said.
* In response to Telus Inc.’s (T-T) proposal of a more than US$400-million deal to take back control of Telus Digital (TIXT-T), Scotia Capital’s Divya Goyal raised her target for the affiliate’s shares to US$3.40 from US$3 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is US$3.77.
“we believe TELUS Digital presented robust potential that, over time, was marred by a slew of events, including the overpriced acquisition of Willow Tree, followed by sustained macro weakness, leading to a less-thanoptimal outcome for a potentially promising business such as TIXT,” she said.