Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Citing its recent strong share price performance and “upcoming headline risks,” National Bank Financial analyst Shane Nagle downgraded Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T) to a “sector perform” recommendation from “outperform” previously.
"While we remain constructive on the H2/25 FCF inflection and discounted EV/2026 CF multiples compared to peers, the market is likely to discount the valuation in the event of a guidance cut and will require more evidence of improved operational performance from Tucumã to confirm an improved outlook for 2026,“ he said. ”ERO shares have returned 52 per cent since early April and up 23 per cent since we upgraded to OP on May 6th 2025, compared to the S&P/TSX Global Base Metals Index up 16 per cent over the same period."
Ahead of the July 31 release of the Vancouver-based company’s second-quarter financial report, Mr. Nagle said he’s now expecting “softer” results and warned a full-year guidance reduction may be inevitable.
"Q2 copper production of 6,400 tons from Tucumã was below our previously estimated 7,840 tons,“ he said. ”We continue to model significant production growth from the mine into H2, but have reduced our estimates to account for a slower ramp-up year to date. We are modeling Q2/25 EBITDA of US$77-million compared with Consensus of US$94.9-million.
“We model 2025 consolidated production of 70,402 tons copper (was 75,517 tons), below ERO’s 2025 guidance of 75,000 - 85,000 tons as we anticipate continued delays in achieving consistent nameplate capacity at Tucumã. We are also conservative on gold production for the year at 37,900 oz (was 47,500 oz) below ERO guidance of 50,000 - 60,000 oz accounting for lower grades at Xavantina.”
While he continues to foresee a free cash flow inflection point in the second half of the year, the analyst emphasized slower ramp-up assumptions for its Tucumã operation in Brazil could be an obstacle.
Mr. Nagle maintained his target for Ero Copper shares of $24.50. The average target on the Street is $26.92, according to LSEG data.
In a concurrent report previewing earnings season for base metals producers, Mr. Nagle made these target price adjustments:
* Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T, “outperform”) to $9.75 from $8.75. The average is $11.48.
* First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T, “outperform”) to $27.50 from $24. Average: $23.04.
Analyst: “NBF Estimates are broadly in line with Consensus for the quarter as higher throughput offsets lower grades in Zambia and strong gold by-product sales continue to support operating costs. Potential deleveraging through minority stake/gold stream sale remain a key catalyst.”
* Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T, “outperform”) to $16.50 from $14.50. Average: $15.65.
* Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T, “outperform”) to $17.50 from $16.50. Average: $16.08.
Analyst: “Our Q2/25 estimates are broadly in line with Consensus. Consolidated copper production is anticipated to be fairly stable throughout the year with strong gold production in Q2.”
* Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK-B-T, “outperform”) to $66 from $65. Average: $64.09.
Analyst: “We account for unplanned downtime impacting production/sales at Antamina, Andacollo and QB2 with more consistent operation at the latter mine throughout H2/25. Reiterating 2025 operating guidance and maintaining the pace of share buybacks would support an improved outlook through the remainder of the year given Teck’s discounted valuation.”
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National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar expects Loblaw Companies Ltd. (L-T) to show “solid” same-store sales growth when it reports its second-quarter financial results on July 24.
“We forecast FR [food retail] sssg of 3.7 per cent, accelerating from 2.2 per cent last quarter, reflecting easier comparables (last year was 0.2 per cent) and solid inflation (StatsCan data suggests 3.5 per cent), among other factors,” he said in a client note. “We expect continued strength in discount and positive growth in conventional; we expect higher traffic and tonnage.
“Our review of peer commentary suggests similar themes to prior quarters, including a continued focus on value, consumer spending resilience (albeit choiceful) and macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on consumer sentiment. Our understanding is that L intends to hold its margin and reinvest benefits from gross margin initiatives to remain price competitive. Recall, Loblaw aims to achieve its framework by growing sales faster than in the past. We model Retail gross margin to be flattish year-over-year, primarily reflecting SDM [Shoppers Drug Mart] shrink improvement and benefits from joining a large buying group, mostly offset by FR price investments.”
Mr. Shreedhar is now projecting earnings per share for the quarter of $2.34, up from $2.15 during the same period a year ago and 2 cents higher than the current consensus forecast on the Street. He attributes that 8.9-per-cent year-over-year gain to “positive Food Retail (FR) same store sales growth (sssg), momentum in Shoppers Drug Mart (SDM), benefits from ongoing growth/efficiency programs and share repurchases, partly offset by higher D&A and interest expenses, including costs related to the ramp up of the new DC (East Gwillimbury).”
“We continue to maintain a favourable view on L and recommend it as our preferred grocer supported by several key themes: (i) Benefits from improvement initiatives; (ii) Ongoing stable EPS growth and (iii) Favourable medium-term trends in discount and drug store (where L over-indexes),” he said.
“Major projects for Loblaw include: accelerating square footage growth (primarily in discount and Shoppers Drug Mart), ongoing cost reduction efforts (supply chain, supplier collaboration, etc.) and other initiatives (freight as a service, retail media, reinvigoration of the right-hand side, etc.).”
Maintaining his “outperform” recommendation for Loblaw shares, Mr. Shreedhar raised his target by $1 to $235 to reflect “slightly” higher estimates. The average target on the Street is $237.10.
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While second-quarter volume results for both Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T) exceeded his expectations, National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen warns risks remain for both given the financial outcome of tariff decisions are “still highly uncertain” despite a recent easing in investor concern on their impact.
“As such, caution around both railroads is warranted, in our view,” he said. “We nevertheless keep our Outperform rating on CN Rail as its relative valuation remains attractive. We remain positive on CPKC’s long-term volume growth outlook, but relative valuation is less compelling. We therefore keep our Sector Perform rating on CPKC shares.”
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Doerksen emphasized CN’s valuation currently sits at a low versus its North American rail peers, providing a potential opportunity for investors.
“Based on our updated 2025 forecast, CN shares are trading at 18.6 times P/E [price to earnings], which is well-below the five-year forward average of 22.0 times for the stock,” he explained. “In addition, whereas CN has historically traded at a 2.0 turn premium to the U.S. rail peer group average, the stock is currently trading below the U.S. peers, which trade at 20.5 times 2025 P/E, on average (all three U.S. rails are currently trading at a material premium to CN). CPKC remains the premium valued railroad, currently trading at 22.9x our updated 2025 EPS forecast, which is ahead of the U.S. peers but below its five-year average of 24.5 times. Given its strong multi-year growth trajectory (tempered somewhat by trade uncertainty), a premium valuation for CPKC is justified, in our view, but at a 4.3 turn premium to CN on current year forecasts (and a 3.6 turn premium based on 2026 forecasts), the higher potential relative growth for CPKC is arguably priced into the stock.”
Mr. Doerksen maintained an “outperform” rating and $170 target for CN shares, while his target for CPKC rose by $2 to $119 with a “sector perform” recommendation. The averages on the Street are $162.40 and $120.04, respectively.
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Citi analyst Ariel Rosa thinks “a more balanced approach” toward North American transportation stocks is warranted heading in earnings season and has only “moderate expectations given soft and uncertain macro.”
“2Q25 earnings season is starting with a more balanced risk-reward, as macro uncertainty, a still-soft demand backdrop, and the recent advance in transports’ valuations leaves us less enthusiastic relative to 3 months ago when we upgraded stocks in our sector,” he said. “Companies we spoke with continue to note a soft but steady demand environment, with worst-case scenarios off the table, but ongoing tepid volumes reflecting caution among shippers. ... Demand remains the problem, even as excess capacity is gradually rationalizing. Most companies in our coverage appear set for decent, albeit unremarkable 2Q earnings, with Rails likely best positioned given better-than-expected volumes and improving network fluidity. Going into 2H, we would look to rotate out of crowded names, moving XPO and NSC to Neutral given strong recent gains, as we prefer out-of-favor transports stocks with under-appreciated earnings upside, including KNX, CSX, UPS, SAIA, and TFII.”
“Transport stocks are up an average of 20 per cent since their lows on April 8 following the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement. While the worst-case scenario generally seems to have been taken off the table, we would be hard pressed to say that we perceive materially better supply-demand conditions for transports relative to our view several months ago. We move XPO and NSC to Neutral given strong recent share price gains which have pushed their valuations to levels that we believe limits near-term upside (even as we acknowledge that both companies are executing well in a difficult operating environment). Instead, we prefer a ‘catch-up’ trade, focusing on stocks that have lagged and which we believe have under-appreciated earnings upside.”
Mr. Rosa made several target price adjustments to stocks in his coverage universe, including:
* Canadian National Railway Co. (CNI-N/CNR-T, “buy”) to US$123 from US$124. The average is US$117.52.
* Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-N/CP-T, “buy”) to US$94 from US$89. Average: US$89.02.
Analyst: “We view Railroads as best positioned to deliver solid 2Q results, with better-than-expected volume performance across the group. This strength has been led by growth in bulk commodities, with grain and coal posting surprising strength in 2Q, offsetting weaker intermodal volume, which partly reflects the impact of tariffs. Railroads were our preferred sub-sector within transports at the start of the year given their defensive characteristics and diversified end market exposure. However, given their strong relative performance year-to-date, we temper our enthusiasm for rails and would look to gradually rotate towards more beaten-down areas of transports. Specifically, our NSC downgrade reflects our investment view across rails, where we perceive: (a) greater earnings upside into 2026 for CSX, (b) greater growth potential at CP, (c) a lower valuation based on forward PE for out-of-favor CNI, which is uncommonly trading with the lowest valuation among the rails (based on its forward PE) despite its high-quality network, and (d) very strong operating performance at UNP, which is posting among its best service metrics in years under the leadership of CEO Jim Vena. To its credit, we acknowledge that Norfolk Southern has also been executing well, with COO John Orr implementing impressive operating improvements since joining the company early last year. In conversations with NS customers, they have invariably praised the company’s service performance. That said, we expect operating improvements to translate into margin improvement at a more gradual pace, with meaningful upside to current estimates likely contingent on a broader macro recovery.”
* TFI International Inc. (TFII-N/TFII-T, “buy”) to US$108 from US$107. Average: US$111.12.
Analyst: “With TFII we acknowledge larger structural concerns given its unionized US LTL workforce which poses an embedded obstacle to margins. Nevertheless, as with SAIA [Inc.], we view estimates as conservative, while we also note strong free cash flow generation from its other businesses, many of which are very well managed, as well as a proactive CEO with a track-record of fixing problems and driving shareholder returns. In the case of both SAIA and TFII, the companies have strong long-term track records of adapting to market conditions to drive share price performance. While cyclical headwinds present near-term obstacles to this objective, we believe investors would be well-served by adding exposure to these recent underperformers.”
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In a report released Wednesday titled The Quiet Rotation: Gold Equities Remain Undervalued; Ready to Re-Engage on Copper, Stifel analyst Ralph Profiti initiated coverage of eight gold and copper producers, emphasizing “signals are evident that a gold equities remain undervalued and the copper market is tighter than sentiment otherwise suggests.”
“We believe copper’s rally through price resistance as inventories decline and concentrate markets shift into deficit signals a much tighter copper market than sentiment otherwise suggests and with ongoing tariff uncertainty, copper prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure on prices in the near-term,” said Mr. Profiti. “Given the current relative market dynamics and seemingly more tempered investor sentiment in gold equities given the length of the rally, we see merits in diversifying allocations to include rotation into copper equities to take advantage of heightened supply stresses in the copper market, as well as maintaining exposure to our constructive view on gold prices and exposure to increasing margin capture and relative valuation in gold equities.”
Mr. Profiti’s ratings and targets are:
* Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI-T) with a “buy” rating and $46 target. Average: $49.11.
Analyst: “Alamos is poised for significant growth underpinned by a path to 900Koz of annual gold production by 2028, a 24-per-cent increase over the 3Yr average (2025–2027) guidance driven by organic growth in core assets, YoungDavidson and Island Gold + Magino mines in Canada and Mulatos in Mexico, including production rising from 567Koz in 2024 to 580- 630Koz in 2025, 630-680Koz in 2026 and 680-730Koz in 2027. Further production growth from the Lynn Lake project with first production in H1/28 is underpinned by strong operating cash flow and a debt-free balance sheet for fully funded growth, positioning Alamos as an undervalued, highly differentiated, growth-oriented intermediate (0.5-2.0Moz) gold producer."
* Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T) with a “buy” rating and $29 target. Average: $26.92.
Analyst: “Ero Copper offers investors exposure to a high-margin, growth-oriented copper-gold producer with a strategic focus on Brazil and mid-tier target M&A appeal. Ero is positioned to deliver meaningful production growth through stabilized Caraíba operations post its mill expansion completed in Dec-2023 as well as Tucumã ramp-up, which achieved commercial production on July 3, 2025. . FY25 copper production guidance of 75-85Kt includes 37.5-42.5Kt from Caraíba plus 37.5- 42.5Kt from Tucumã at C1 cash costs of $1.55–1.80/lb and compares to FY24 of 40.6Kt at $1.84/lb, respectively, as well as Xavantina gold production of 50–60Koz at cash cost of $650-800/oz and ASIC of $1,400–1,600/oz. We expect Ero to prioritize stronger cash flow generation towards balance sheet deleveraging and transformational drilling at Furnas in partnership with Vale Base Metals (VBM) where 40,000m of drilling planned for 2025 will support a Phase 1 Scoping Study (PEA) in H1/26 and Phase 2 Prefeasibility Study with ongoing exploration and technical studies aiming to define a new long-life, high-grade underground mine. We believe Ero is well positioned to achieve higher copper production in H2/25 and 2026 and 3Yr (2025-2027) average copper production growth of 85–95Kt (vs. 40.6Kt in 2024) that underpins our view of Ero as a consolidation play in the mid-tier copper sector."
* Freeport McMoRan Inc. (FCX-N) with a “buy” rating and US$56 target. Average: US$48.26.
Analyst: “We believe Freeport is one of the best-positioned miners globally for copper and gold exposure with large-scale production of copper, gold and molybdenum, a highly qualified and experienced team with a proven track record of operational execution, disciplined capital allocation and outsized shareholder returns. Freeport boasts an attractive portfolio of organic growth opportunities anchored with a strong balance sheet, including its proprietary leaching technology that unlocks significant value from existing stockpiles at a very low capital intensity, which we value at $6+/share, including Q1/25 extraction of 40Mln lbs of copper from leaching initiatives that have demonstrated early success with technological viability that leverages data analytics and optimized processes (leach kinetics and proprietary reagents) to target low-grade ores, potentially 38Bln lbs in copper stockpiles into profitable output.”
* Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN-T) with a “buy” rating and $13.50 target. Average: $16.04.
Analyst: “We believe Ivanhoe’s cash flow transition from more capex-intensive build-out and expansion to significant production growth with high-margin value capture has been deferred due to the temporary suspension at Kakula underground. Long-term objectives and deliverables are still preserved and represent a compelling risk: reward tradeoff on medium-term value and we still consider Kamoa-Kakula as having multi-stage expansion and optimization potential. Ivanhoe’s asset base is distinguished by its high-grade, long-life deposits and substantial infrastructure already in place. Platreef is an ultra-scale, high-margin polymetallic orebody standing out with a combination of grade, thickness, geometry, scale and potential for significant byproduct credits as Phase 1 begins commissioning in Q4/25 and Kipushi reintroduces a highest-grade zinc supply. Along with an underappreciated brownfield and greenfield exploration portfolio (Western Forelands), Ivanhoe’s assets offer a visible multi-year growth pipeline with scale.”
* Newmont Corp. (NEM-N, NGT-T) with a “buy” rating and US$73 target. Average: US$67.83.
Analyst: “We believe Newmont’s transformed portfolio of geologic and geographic diversity with a strong US presence and a leaner cost structure beginning in 2026 will solidify its position as the #1 gold producer globally and set a strong foundation for higher market multiples. Newmont enters 2025 on the heels of successful divestiture program and ongoing integration and stabilization of the Newcrest assets following its acquisition in Nov-2023. Despite a lack of visibility on operating and financial targets beyond 2025, we estimate Newmont’s 3Yr outlook will demonstrate stable attributable gold production of 5.6- 5.8Moz/year (2025-2027) with CAS running relatively higher vs. peers at $1,180-1,344/oz and AISC of $1,620-1,675/oz vs. 2025 guidance of 5.6Moz at CAS of $1,180/oz and AISC of $1,620/oz from its Tier-1 portfolio. We expect to see marked improvement in 2026 and 2027 as Boddington, Lihir, Peñasquito and Cerro Negro operations are stabilized and the commissioning of the Ahafo North shaft in 2027 and build-out of Panel Caves 2 and 3 at Cadia in 2026 and 2027 serve as positive medium-term catalysts.”
* Osisko Development Corp. (ODV-X) with a “buy” rating and $6 target. Average: $6.07.
Analyst: “Osisko Development is an emerging mid-tier gold producer focused on advancing its 100-per-cent-owned Cariboo Gold project in Central British Columbia (Canada) with significant revaluation potential upon transition to producer status where mid-tier precious metals producers trade at 0.87 vs. developers at 0.40. The Cariboo 2025 Feasibility Study (FS2025) outlines a robust mineral reserve and resource base that underpins the project’s long-term potential at demonstrated economics under a base and spot gold price case including a base-case gold price of $2,400/oz and $1.35 exchange rate that delivers an after-tax NPV5-per-cent of $943-million and an IRR of 22.1 per cent, with a payback period of 2.8yrs.”
* Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T) with a “hold” rating and $60 target. Average: $64.90.
Analyst: “We believe a long-term focus is necessary in positioning Teck shares as it navigates short-term copper growth projects at San Nicolas and Zafranal and longer-dated copper growth optionality at NewRange, Galore Creek, NuevaUnión and Schaft Creek that in our view, will be more challenged to execute positive risk-adjusted IRRs and reinforces the relative merits of our ‘buy vs. build’ thesis in the copper sector. We believe strongly that Teck’s Capital Allocation Framework strikes the proper balance between debt reduction, retaining significant cash for copper growth, ensuring maintenance of a strong balance sheet and providing cash returns to shareholders while reinforcing management’s core competencies and should be the focus for long-term oriented investors. We see Teck as a viable consolidator in the copper sector based on its strong balance sheet and above-peer range market multiples.”
* Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. (WDO-T) with a “buy” rating and $24 target. Average: $22.36.
Analyst: “Wesdome is focused on organic growth through exploration and operational optimization, supported by a debt-free balance sheet and strong free cash flow generation; and is uniquely positioned among a scarce peer group of Canadian-based, mid-tier (0.1-0.5Moz) gold producers. Our value proposition is driven by a resource-generative approach to brownfield exploration evaluating continuity of deposits both laterally and at depth, integration of drill results into asset optimization studies to extend mine life at existing operations and increased utilization of the 1,200tpd Eagle River mill and 2,040tpd Kiena mill that are each currently operating at approximately 50 per cent of permitted capacity. We estimate every additional year of mine life at Eagle River and Kiena increases our mine NPV by 10 per cent and 6.0 per cent, respectively, with both Eagle River and Kiena surrounded by underexplored greenstone belts.”
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RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan sees investor sentiment toward U.S. automakers and parts manufacturers remaining “negative” heading into earnings season.
“OEMs have been absorbing tariffs in Q2 but starting in Q3, we expect pricing offsets to ramp up dealer inventories and pressure vehicle sales, especially given tariff pre-buy in H1/25,” he said. “Sales in H1/25 suggests H2/25 could be down 1.5 million vs H1/25, for a 14.9 million SAAR level, to reach S&P Global’s 15.7 million forecast for full year 2025. Further, it appears that tariff deals might take longer to secure - some were expecting deals could be announced as early as July 9. In June, S&P Global raised its 2025 Global Production forecast by 919K/596K for 2025/2026 (434K/63K in NA alone), as it now incorporates US tariffs dropping from 25 per cent to 10 per cent. Even with this, NA/EU production is expected to be down 5 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, with China up 4 per cent in ’25.
“For the suppliers, we think this is largely in numbers already and don’t expect guidance raises, especially given tariff resolution uncertainty. For the carmakers, we see downside risk to Q2 numbers as OEMs were absorbing tariffs without adjusting pricing. We don’t expect guidance updates here either, given uncertainty on tariff resolution.”
In a note released Wednesday, Mr. Narayan updated his forecast and target prices for companies in his coverage universe.
For Aurora, Ont.-based Magna International Inc. (MGA-N, MG-T), he raised his target to US$38 from US$31, keeping a “sector perform” rating, after moving his valuation period to be based on 2026 projections. The average on the Street is US$40.95.
“Our estimates and consensus for 2025 are below the company’s pre-tariff guidance,” he said. “2026 consensus might prove to be too high given S&P production forecasts, but self-help might be an important offset here. Investors will also be keen to hear if management intends to divest segments at the Q2 conference call.”
The analyst added: “We Like GM, APTV, DAN, and TSLA on a risk/reward basis. For GM, while Q2 consensus is probably high, ’26 numbers are likely too low, especially given a 10-per-cent tariff scenario for Korea/Mexico. For APTV, ’25 guidance seems de-risked and incorporates a much lower market production level than what S&P Global is forecasting. For Dana, we think there is more upside associated with the Off-highway sale, especially with capital return. Finally, Tesla shares have pulled back since the June 22 robotaxi launch. Deliveries for Q2 were better than buyside expectations and the new affordable models coming in Q3 could help re-accelerate demand.”
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Pointing to “poor sentiment and a likely long path to de-levering to under 3 times EBITDA,” Canaccord Genuity analyst Robert Young thinks a sale process for Dye & Durham Ltd. (DND-T) would be “well received” by investors.
On Monday, the Canadian legal software maker’s second biggest investor, Plantro Ltd, launched a proxy fight to elect new directors and is pushing for a sale of the company.
Plantro Ltd, which owns 11 per cent of Dye & Durham, told the company that it nominated three director candidates to the seven-person board and that it requisitioned a special meeting where shareholders would vote on the nominees.
"On one hand, we agree that a sale process of the company as a whole, based on recent expressions of interest and legal software peer valuations, would be very well received by a majority of investors,“ Mr. Young said. ”We argue that funded offers at a premium to market should be allowed due diligence and brought to the shareholders to weigh the benefits. On the other hand, this new campaign adds to recent noise around the stock. We also argue that while the activist-led transformation has lagged timeline expectations, new CEO George Tsivin and returning CFO Avjit Kamboj have been given scant opportunity to lay out their plans. We believe that investors remain highly focused on deleveraging and would see any divestiture of non-core assets, such as the payments business, Credas, Ghost Practice PMS or even the Australian business, at a premium to Dye & Durham’s current market valuation and used to reduce debt as positive steps."
In a note released Wednesday, the analyst also emphasized macro conditions remain a headwind on real estate volumes, weighing on the Toronto-based company’s results.
“Macro pressure on housing transaction volumes has not abated, and we expect these dynamics to persist over the near term,” he said. “Canadian home sales have fallen consistently since November 2024 as tariff worry kept homebuyers out of the market and rising recession expectations tempered planning. While home sales were up 3.6 per cent month-over-month in May, the first gain since November, along with the declines in the preceding months, national home sales are still down 13 per cent from a recent high recorded in Q4/24. Market data in Canada suggested national home sales in May grew 3.6 per cent month-over-month but were down 4.3 per cent year-over-year versus May 2024. The national sales-to-new listings ratio was flat at 47 per cent, which remains below the long-term average of 55 per cent. In the UK, residential transactions in May were 12 per cent lower than last year, but 25 per cent higher month-over-month. The Australian market is stronger, with national sales growing 2.3 per cent year-over-year in May.”
After lowering his sales and earnings expectations through 2026 to “reflect the lack of meaningful recovery in Canadian real estate volumes, the likelihood of margin compression in the short term, and a higher risk of share loss following new license awards to access the Ontario Business Registry (OBR),” Mr. Young reduced his target for Dye & Durham shares to $14.50 from $16, keeping a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $17.60.
“We are moderating our estimates to reflect continued macro headwinds impacting housing transaction volumes, particularly in Canada,” he said. “Given the delayed recovery in real estate transaction volumes, we are moderating our near-term estimates for the upcoming quarter (FQ4/25) and our F2026 assumptions to reflect a more prolonged return to normalized market activity. Tariff-related uncertainty and rising recession fears continue to weigh on buyer sentiment and transaction activity and any near-term recovery in real estate volumes is likely to be gradual, in our view.”
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In other analyst actions:
* Ahead of its first-quarter 2026 financial report on Thursday, Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li raised his target for shares of Aritzia Inc. (ATZ-T) to $84 from $66 with a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $79.80.
“We expect results will show ATZ continuing to navigate this period of uncertainty from a position of strength,” he said. “Given the strong share price performance, we believe this is largely expected by the market. While ATZ’s premium valuation (31 times FY26 EPS) might keep the stock rangebound near-term, we believe there is further upside with a clear path to achieving our FY27 EPS of $3.12 (consensus $3.16), predicated on reasonable growth assumptions and implying 35-per-cent year-over-year growth.”
* Seeing the $250-million amendment to its Canadian Armed Forces contract as a “strong early signal of inflection in Canadian defence spending,” Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier increased his Calian Group Ltd. (CGY-T) target to $62 from $61 with a “buy” rating. The average is $57.57.
“The $250-million CAF contract amendment increases CGY’s backlog to a record level, providing added visibility and suggesting the government will lean on trusted existing suppliers, and is a strong early signal of the upcoming inflection in Canadian defence spending,” he said. “While the impact on our estimates is modest, we view this as a solid outcome for CGY, expanding its scope without the need to recompete. We have updated our model to reflect the amendment and continued softness in the ITCS segment.”
* Scotia’s Orest Wowkodaw raised his Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN-T) target to $12.50 from $12 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $16.04.
“IVN released better than expected Q2/25 operating results from its flagship Kamoa-Kakula Cu complex in the DRC, despite the previously disclosed seismic issues that temporary suspended mining operations at the high-grade Kakula mine in mid-May,” he said. “More important, the updated operating outlook at the complex over the next 12-24 months appears stronger than we previously envisioned (vs. our ultra conservative June 12 outlook), but is still well below pre-seismic event expectations. Markedly lower 2025 Cu guidance was reaffirmed; new 2026-2027 production guidance will be released in September (coinciding with a rescheduled site visit that we plan on attending). Overall, given the 5-per-cent increase in our corporate 10%NAVPS estimate, we view the update as positive for the shares.
“IVN shares are rated Sector Perform due to significant ongoing operating uncertainty at Kamoa-Kakula. An updated LOM [life-of-mine] mine plan is due in Q1/26; we continue to anticipate lower reserves, lower operating rates, and higher costs.”