Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Desjardins Securities analyst Doug Young thinks uncertainty is likely to linger throughout Canada’s banking sector as third-quarter earnings season approach.
"Nobody knows the way it’s gonna be. No, my Oasis quotes aren’t done yet,“ he said. ”It has been a roller coaster of a year—we began with general optimism, then came an abrupt turn on ‘Liberation Day’, with a subsequent improvement in sentiment as just maybe things won’t be as bad as initially thought. Nobody knows! While the geopolitical situation is fluid, the fundamentals of Canadian banks aren’t bad, and we don’t view the banks as expensive. We remain overweight the Canadian banking sector. CM and RY remain our top picks."
In a client report released Wednesday, Mr. Young predicted investor focus during earnings season later this month will remain on credit trends. He’s forecasting an average provisions for credit losses (PCL) rate of 49 basis points, up 9 basis points year-over-year and down 8 basis points quarter-over-quarter “with the sequential improvement mostly driven by lower performing PCLs.”
“All eyes will be on when management teams might expect PCLs to peak, and PCL guidance for FY26,” he added.
For the quarter, he’s also projecting on average a 4-per-cent year-over-year increase in cash EPS for the Big 6, which includes 13-per-cent growth in pre-tax, pre-provision (PTPP) earnings, partially offset by higher PCLs.
The analyst upgraded his recommendation for Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T) to “buy” from “hold” with a $107 target, rising from $97 and above the $99.13 average on the Street, according to LSEG data.
“First, the level of communication by the bank has improved immensely over the past six months, and we like what we have heard,” he explained. “Second, we like its high-quality Canadian P&C banking operation, which comes with a strong deposit base. Third, the bank is not waiting for the September investor day but is taking actions now (selling Schwab stake, buying back stock, etc). Fourth, while the AML remediation and US asset cap are risks, these issues affect only 25 per cent of the bank’s earnings and are well-known. Fifth, we believe its U.S. banking results could surprise positively over the coming year(s).”
Mr. Young also warned “it could be another tough quarter” for EQB Inc. (EQB-T) and cut his cash EPS estimates accordingly.
“We kept our Buy rating because we like the sector outlook, the outlook for EQB in FY26, the return of Chadwick Westlake as CEO and the bank’s scarcity value in the small- to mid-cap financials space (puts a floor value on the name in our view). That said, near-term patience will be required,” he said.
His target for EQB remains $110, below the $113.40 average.
Mr. Young’s targets and ratings in order of preference are now:
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T) with a “buy” rating and $106 target, up from $100. Average: $103.14.
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T) with a “buy” rating and $193 target, up from $185. Average: $192.07.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T) with a “buy” rating and $107 target, up from $97. Average: $99.13.
- EQB Inc. (EQB-T) with a “buy” rating and $110 target (unchanged). Average: $113.40.
- National Bank of Canada (NA-T) with a “hold” rating and $150 target, up from $136. Average: $146.62.
- Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) with a “hold” rating and $156 target, up from $152. Average: $157.79.
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) with a “hold” rating and $79 target, up from $77. Average: $80.07.
- Laurentian Bank of Canada (LB-T) with a “sell” rating and $30 target, up from $29. Average: $29.60.
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National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse sees the potential acquisition of Altus Group Ltd. (AIF-T) as “reasonable,” leading him to “value this name on a potential takeout scenario” and upgrade his recommendation to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
Shares of the Toronto-based real estate software provider soared 9.5 per cent on Tuesday on a Reuters report it is exploring a potential sale after receiving inbound acquisition interest. It is working with investment bankers, who in recent weeks have been soliciting buyer interest, according to the report, adding potential buyers were expected to include private equity firms that could take Altus private.
“From a product perspective, the Company’s ARGUS Enterprise product (now ARGUS Intelligence) is widely considered the standard cash flow / valuation modelling software in the market,” said Mr. Tse. “In our opinion, that asset would strategically fit well with any number of property technology companies. Separately, the recent sale of its Property Tax business for $700-million to Ryan, LLC has made for a stronger balance sheet ($338-million in cash and $158-million in debt for a funded-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.3 times), potentially appetizing to a financial buyer. Finally, we’re also of the view that given the background of CEO Jim Hannon in private equity, a sale would be consistent with that operating background.
“Where’s there’s smoke… With respect to the above reports, it’s interesting that it follows the Company recently pushing its Investor Day date from September 9, 2025, to November 20, 2025, with its FQ2 release last week. To us, it’s reasonable to think the delay was to evaluate the reported opportunities."
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Tse said a "very reasonable acquirer” would be Virginia-based CoStar Group (CSGP-Q), “where we see ARGUS Intelligence being complementary to CoStar’s global CRE analytics business.”
“Other reasonable strategics include: MSCI, Moody’s, CoreLogic, Colliers International and CBRE Group,” he added. “From a strategic standpoint, given the complementary value offered by ARGUS Intelligence, we think a valuation range of 25–30 times EV/EBITDA would be reasonable as a relative premium to close comps and precedent private transactions in the market. That would put the stock price between $67 - $79.”
With his rating and valuation revisions, Mr. Tse raised his target for Altus shares to $74 from $60. The average target on the Street is $60.71.
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Paradigm Capital’s Razi Hasan sees “momentum building” for Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) and continues to be “impressed by the diversity in EIF’s business model with several of the company’s business lines well positioned for growing demand in their respective industries."
He was one of a large group of equity analysts on the Street to make notable increases to their forecasts and target prices for the Winnipeg-based diversified, acquisition-oriented company following Monday’s release of its second-quarter results, which sent its shares soaring 7.6 per cent in Tuesday trading.
“Exchange Income Corp. (EIC) has a compelling offering of both defensive and growth qualities supported by the company’s diverse business model,” said Mr. Hasan. “The Aerospace & Aviation (A&A) segment is well positioned across business lines, while the Manufacturing segment has witnessed an increase in demand for its products and services. We view the company as well positioned with several growth drivers in place. The company recently announced an upside to its credit facility to help fund future growth, with the ability to return capital to shareholder.”
Exchange Income, which is focused on opportunities in the Aerospace & Aviation and Manufacturing segments, reported quarterly revenue of $719.9-million, up 9 per cent year-over-year narrowly below Mr. Hasan’s $720.8-million estimate as well of the consensus of $733.6-million. However, adjusted EBITDA of $177.2-million was a gain of 13 per cent and topped both the analyst’s $172.4-milllion projection and the Street’s expectation. Adjusted earnings per share of 92 cents also topped forecasts (82 cents and 90 cents, respectively).
Management also raised its previously disclosed 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $725‒$765-million from $690‒$730-million.
“We remain confident about the company’s growth prospects in A&A, in particular Essential Air Services,” said Mr. Hasan in a client note. “The business is poised for the next leg of growth through the addition of Canadian North, allowing for greater exposure to the region which could benefit from increased government infrastructure spending programs. Furthermore, the greater scope in Medevac operations through the commencement of the Newfoundland and Labrador contracts expected in Q4/25, coupled with lower capex spending, should be positive for margins in the business. Aircraft Sales and Leasing and potential opportunities in Aerospace owing to growing appetite for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) by government agencies should lead to further opportunities in the segment.
“In Manufacturing, we are encouraged by the growing demand in the U.S. for Spartan composite mats and the better-than-expected revenue performance from the subsidiary. Management has indicated the potential for adding another manufacturing plant down the road in the Southeastern U.S. The Multi-Storey Window business will require patience given the project delays; as such, we now believe the company should begin to see incremental growth in H2/27. Overall, the diversity in the business model was on full display as stronger business lines helped offset weakness in the Windows business.”
With adjustments to his financial model to reflect the guidance range as well as “continued strength in A&A and our view of a longer-than-expected turnaround in the Multi-Storey Window Solutions business,” Mr. Hasan raised his target for Exchange Income shares to $82 from $68 with a “buy” rating. The average is $79.35.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target adjustments include:
• National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen to $84 from $71 with an “outperform” rating.
"We continue to see growth for EIC through 2026 and beyond driven by (1) ongoing ramp and year-over-year growth from medevac contracts; (2) contract expansion on the U.K. aerial surveillance contract plus additional potential surveillance opportunities; (3) leasing and parts sales growth at Regional One; and (4) growth in the U.S. matting business and potentially in the Canadian matting business in the coming quarters. In addition, we see revenue and cost synergies driving margin improvement at the recently acquired Canadian North," said Mr. Doerksen.
• ATB Capital Markets’ Chris Murray to $81 from $70 with an “outperform” rating.
“While shares have re-rated in 2025 (6.8 times 2026 estimate EBITDA), we remain constructive on EIF’s growth outlook and see a sizeable ISR contract award as a potential near-term catalyst,” said Mr. Murray.
* RBC’s James McGarragle to $81 from $74 with an “outperform” rating.
“Management today updated their 2025 guide, which was increased well ahead of consensus estimates coming into the quarter due to Cdn North, despite headwinds related to wildfires, which are expected to impact Q3 results. More important though in our view are the updates we got from the call and what this means into 2026. In this regard, we see upside from 1) Cdn North, especially as efficiency improvements are implemented; 2) aircraft redeployment from BC to Newfoundland, which we expect to drive higher returns; and 3) Windows reflecting early indication bookings are picking up,” he said.
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to $84 from $73 with a “buy” rating.
“2Q results met expectations while its 5% guidance raise provides a constructive outlook for its Canadian North (CN) acquisition, supported by various secular tailwinds. Spartan continues to surprise to the upside, offset by continued weakness from its multi-storey windows segment. 2H could see heavier capex spend for CN, delivery of new King Airs and R1 investments,” said Mr. Ho.
• Ventum Capital’s Amr Ezzat to $81 from $74 with a “buy” rating.
"Q2/25 reinforced the earnings momentum and operational resilience that underpin our investment thesis," said Mr. Ezzat. “EBITDA guidance lifted to $725–$765-million (from $690–$730-million) reflects the immediate contribution of Canadian North and continued strength across essential air services, medevac, and leasing, partially offset by wildfire disruptions. Early cost synergies and a long-term Nunavut contract have Canadian North tracking ahead of expectations, with near-term free cash flow muted by elevated maintenance CapEx before normalizing in 2026. Manufacturing headwinds from tariffs persist, but $100-million in new window project bookings and sustained demand for Spartan mats provide a clear bridge to growth. With a strong balance sheet, $1.5-billion liquidity, and a full pipeline of organic and M&A opportunities, we see a compelling setup for sustained double-digit EBITDA growth into 2026."
• Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $80 from $66 with a “sector outperform” rating.
"We maintain our SO rating while raising our target ... on valuation roll-forward and improved EBITDA outlook, partially offset by higher capex. While Q2 met expectations, despite tariffs and forest fires, EIF raised full-year EBITDA guidance due mostly to the Canadian North acquisition, which wasn’t reflected in Street expectations for the most part. With nearly all subsidiaries continuing the positive momentum, we now expect EBITDA to exceed $800M in 2026, a year earlier than we previously anticipated. This is the result of M&A and strength across all aviation subsidiaries plus select manufacturing subsidiaries. Our expectations may yet again prove conservative due to potential M&A or more contract wins (e.g., Australia ISR), with the latter more likely to benefit in 2027-2028 and beyond, in our view. Valuation remains attractive," said Mr. Gupta.
* Raymond James’ Steve Hansen to $85 from $80 with a “strong buy” rating.
“While EIC won’t provide 2026 guidance until Nov-25 (in tandem w/ 3Q25 report), we believe EIC’s platform remains primed for embedded growth opportunities that offer solid visibility into next year,” he said.
* TD Cowen’s Tim James to $84 from $70 with a “buy” rating.
“Recent contract wins and Canadian North acquisition sets up relatively low-risk Aerospace & Aviation earnings trajectory. Manufacturing rebound continues for 2nd quarter despite (as expected) lack of help from MSWS business (expected in 2026). Guide raise highlights business resiliency and security of 4-per-cent dividend yield,” he said.
* BMO’s Michael Goldie to $65.50 from $59 with a “market perform” rating.
“We are genuinely intrigued by the potential in northern Canada and Aerospace/ISR momentum—two medium-to-long-term opportunities we did not fully appreciate in our initiation. That said, we remain cautious on valuation with shares trading at record P/E levels when considering cost of financing. Our 2025/2026 estimates for EPS are revised 7 per cent higher as we adjust our model and include Canadian North," said Mr. Goldie.
• CIBC’s Krista Friesen to $84.50 from $74.50 with an “outperformer” rating.
"EIF reported solid Q2 results despite the headwinds it experienced from forest fires during the quarter. The company continues to demonstrate strong operational performance across its business segments. With the acquisition of Canadian North having only recently closed, EIF is already making solid progress on the integration efforts and increased guidance by more than we had anticipated as a result of the acquisition," she said.
• Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $80 from $77 with a “buy” rating.
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While acknowledging Nexus Industrial REIT’s (NXR.UN-T) second quarter was “noisy” and he expects “this to bleed into Q3,” National Bank Financial analyst Matt Kornack predicts it will see “the positive benefits” of re-tenanting of a portion of the vacancy brought on by the bankruptcy of Alberta-based retailer Peavey Mart by the end of the year.
After the bell on Monday, the Toronto-based REIT reported funds from operations per unit of 18 cents, matching the estimates of the analyst and the Street despite net operating income coming in a “tad light.” Overall occupancy was down quarter-over-quarter to 95 per cent (from 97 per cent), missing Mr. Kornack’s 97-per-cent projection, as Peavey had a “material” impact on its industrial segment (falling 2.5 per cent to 94.9 per cent).
“Rent spreads remain elevated,” he said. “SPNOI [same-property net operating income] decelerated relative to a strong prior year comp and Peavey adjustment, growth outlook sustained.
“The outlook for mid-single digit SPNOI growth was maintained, notwithstanding lower growth in Q2, which was impacted by lower occupancy combined with a strong prior year comp. Management remains confident on lease maturities in the second half of the year (90-per-cent leased) and has made good progress on 2026 (40 per cent dealt with). This coupled with MTM spreads will support organic growth.”
After making several adjustments to his forecast “around the timing and complexity of leasing being completed on space vacated by Peavey Mart (due to bankruptcy) and re-tenanting of a space at higher rents, but with some downtime,” Mr. Kornack raised his target for Nexus units to $8.25 from $8, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average target on the Street is $8.25.
“We also adjusted the lease-up assumptions on the development/expansion portfolio to account for a staggered take-up of space,” he added. “Admittedly, there could be additional SL rent implications given longer dated leases with significant step-ups in rent, and we are looking at things on a cash basis (Peavy in particular will see rents start at $3 net for H2/25 then ramp to $7 in 2026, increasing $1 per year until it reaches $12 and then at 2 per cent thereafter). For now, the result was a slight reduction in earnings estimates but a modest step-up in NAV. Our target increases by the quantum of the NAV move.”
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* TD Cowen’s Sam Damiani raised his target by $1 to $8 with a “hold” rating.
“The ‘good interest’ being seen last quarter in NXR’s recent vacancies quickly turned into signed leases with well-known tenants and at strong rents. This sharp rebound during NXR’s first full quarter as a pure-play industrial REIT was further demonstrated by the absence of the word ‘tariff’ from any disclosures or conference call content. Relative value looks more interesting,” said Mr. Damiani.
* CIBC’s Tal Woolley to $8 from $7.50 with a “neutral” rating.
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Following a 31-per-cent surge in Lithium Argentina AG’s (LAR-N, LAR-T) share price on Monday in response to its second-quarter results, Scotia Capital analyst Ben Isaacson no longer sees a “fair-value gap for investors.”
Accordingly, he lowered his rating to “sector perform” from “sector outperform” previously.
“While some may push lithium stocks higher on temporary production cut noise out of China, we have yet to see evidence of a sustainable/structural market improvement, including to channel inventory. We remind investors that CATL’s Jianxiawo mine was already down for five months over the past year, and failed to tighten the market. This time, the mine will be down for three months,” he said.
Mr. Isaacson raised his target to US$3.50 from US$3 to reflect its new joint venture with Ganfeng Lithium Group as well as progress on its Cauchari project. The average is US$4.51.
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In other analyst actions:
* In a report titled A Capital Allocator At Its Core, CIBC’s Krista Friesen initiated coverage of Terravest Industries Inc. (TVK-T) with a “neutral” rating and $175 target. The average is $186.80.
“TVK is a Canadian industrial manufacturer and serial consolidator with operations mostly across North America. The company produces a diverse range of engineered products for energy, infrastructure, HVAC, and water end-markets, and has a long track record of acquiring and integrating niche manufacturers to drive long-term growth and free cash flow (FCF). We are positive on TVK’s long-term growth outlook, with our Neutral rating reflecting the company’s elevated valuation based on near-term expectations. Our $175 price target is derived using a sum-of-the-parts valuation, resulting in an average EBITDA multiple of 11.5 times. Further upside could be unlocked as the company deleverages and integrates EnTrans,” she said.
* In a research note titled A Negative Shift in Tone on Possible Wind-up Timing & Costs, Raymond James’ Brad Sturges downgraded European Residential REIT (ERE.UN-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $2.75 target, down from $3. The average on the Street is $2.48.
"we are adjusting our rating for ERES to Market Perform, based on our revised expectations for relatively more limited total return upside for ERES following the suspension of its monthly distribution rate, and a reduced NAV/unit estimate due to a higher applied cap rate assumption,“ said Mr. Sturges. ”On its 2Q25 call, we believe ERES’ had a notable negative shift in tone related to possibly increased uncertainty quarter-over-quarter for the potential timing of ERES’ final wind-up, while also noting that potential wind-up costs and transaction and other fees could be ‘significant’.”
* National Bank’s Shane Nagle raised his target for Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS-T) to $36, exceeding the $35.71 average on the Street, from $35 with an “outperform” rating.
“We have incorporated in-line Q2 financials as well as the recent Arthur Gold royalty sale. Our Outperform rating remains supported by the company’s stable, long-life asset base, transitioning of the portfolio towards lower carbon-intensive commodities and leveraging in-house expertise to provide long-term exposure to future exploration success. We anticipate several positive updates from the portfolio including resource update and advancement of the Saúva deposit at Chapada, and advancement of Kami,” said Mr. Nagle.
* Seeing an improved outlook for 2025 after a second-quarter earnings miss, Mr. Nagle bumped EMX Royalty Corp. (EMX-X) target to $5.75 from $5.25 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $5.55.
“Our O/P rating for EMX remains based on revenue generation and growth from large-scale, long-life assets in Caserones and Timok with impactful revenue generated from its royalty origination business,” he said. “We view an asset like Timok as having world-class potential forming the basis for much of our valuation (36 per cent of NAV). Our target has been increased on account of incorporating revenues from Vittangi as well as the application of a lower discount rate at Timok to reflect positive advancement of Lower Zone development and premium being applied in the market to large-scale ‘World-Class’ assets under current market conditions.”
* After incorporating its US$1-billion sale of a gold stream at Kansanshi to Royal Gold into his forecast, Mr. Nagle raised his First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T) target by 50 cents to $29 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $25.34.
“Our outlook remains positive for several near-term catalysts including further non-core asset sales, additional approval of the company’s P&SM [preservation and safety management] plan at Cobre Panamá, and an improved operating outlook given increased gold production at Kansanshi throughout 2026 and beyond,” said Mr. Nagle.
* Scotia’s Maher Yaghi moved his target for Cineplex Inc. (CGX-T) to $12.75, above the $12.40 average, from $12 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“Cineplex reported results in line with the company’s pre-released monthly box office results but well ahead of what the street or our estimates began the quarter with in terms of expectations. While the reaction to the results today was muted we are encouraged by the pace of improvement in box office recovery as new film releases ramp up. For the back half of the year the release schedule remains strong, and we expect financial results to continue to improve, providing strong cash generation opportunities for the company. While Cineplex has not bought back much of its stock in the last 7-8 months we believe the extent of the recovery should give management support to renew the buyback program in Q3/Q4. Overall we are slightly increasing our target as we roll forward our valuations to 2026 from 2025 and maintain our SO rating,” said Mr. Yaghi.
* Wells Fargo’s Praneeth Satish moved his Keyera Corp. (KEY-T) target to $47 from $46 with a “equalweight” rating. The average is $50.92.
* In a note titled Outside valuation, all looks good under the hood, TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison bumped his Street-high target for Martinrea International Inc. (MRE-T) to $14 from $13 with a “buy” rating, while CIBC’s Krista Friesen moved her target to $10.50 from $10 with a “neutral” rating. The average is $8.76.
“Martinrea delivered strong Q2/25 results with adj. EBITDA/EPS ahead of our forecast/consensus. Martinrea is illustrating its investment in lean efficiencies/innovation is yielding margin benefits, its disciplined approach to capital allocation is establishing a track record of positive FCF, and by maintaining 2025 guidance (likely at the mid-to-high end) that its valuation is punitive,” said Mr. Morrison.
* Believing its “exploration continues to bear fruit in continually emerging string of pearls,” Stifel’s Cole McGill raise his Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-T) target to $6 from $5, which is the current average on the Street. He maintained a “buy” rating.
“MAU continues to execute on its dual track derisking & drilling value creation strategy,” said Mr. McGill. “The 1H25 construction update showcases a construction team firing on all cylinders - where committed costs, in line with budget, stand at 44 per cent of total capital, alongside significant process on earthworks and concrete - two areas that can see significant cost overruns. First gold remains on track for 2Q27, but upside to an early oxide circuit could see this pulled forward. On the back of the recent exploration update, we note MAU continues to make strides in adding grade accretive ounces - close to the planned haul road - that can leverage a speedy permitting framework to hit the mill early in the mine life.”
* Stifel’s Ian Gillies increased his Neo Performance Materials Inc. (NEO-T) target to $22 from $17.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $20.50.
“NEO continues to ride positive operational momentum and delivered a sixth consecutive quarterly beat with its 2025 EBITDA guidance raised by 14.8 per cent. We believe the momentum will continue and there is potential for more beat and raise quarters. Our positive view is based on the company’s ability to 1) improve pricing and margins in its existing operations and 2) successful start-up of the new Estonia plant,” said Mr. Gillies.
* Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay raised his target for Rogers Sugar Inc. (RSI-T) to $7.50 from $7.25 with a “buy” rating. The average is $6.65.
“RSI has remained resilient and posted a solid financial performance in a volatile trade environment, including 3Q FY25 results which were ahead of expectations. The quarter featured higher volumes and Sugar’s stronger-than-expected margin, which more than offset a temporary margin decline in Maple. We are also encouraged by the steady progress of the LEAP sugar capacity expansion project,” said Mr. Tremblay.
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho trimmed his Superior Plus Corp. (SPB-T) target to $9.75 from $10.50 with a “buy” rating. Elsewhere, other changes include: TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil to $8 from $8.50 with a “hold” rating and BMO’s John Gibson to $8 from $10 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $9.70.
“While 2Q tends to be an uneventful quarter, the EBITDA miss vs our estimate and consensus was notable although several one-time items affected results. However, SPB maintained its 2025 8-per-cent EBITDA growth guidance. It needs to improve EBITDA by 12 per cent in 2H25 (4Q-weighted) to achieve this. It could pause share buybacks (hit 10-perf-cent limit) before resuming in the fall,” said Mr. Ho.
* RBC’s Christopher Dendrinos cut his Westport Fuel Systems Inc. (WPRT-Q, WPRT-T) target to US$3 from US$4 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is US$4.42.
“Focus is on the next stage for the business. WPRT completed the divestiture of its Light-Duty segment, enabling a strategic focus on heavy-duty transportation, hydrogen-related opportunities primarily in China, and a pivot to developing CNG tech. Cost and operating efficiency efforts continue with plans to localize and streamline manufacturing and accelerate market entry,” he said.