Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
RBC’s Mining & Materials equity team reaffirmed their positive view on gold equities on Wednesday, pointing to “attractive valuations and improving return of capital.”
In a research report released before the bell, the analysts updated their commodity price forecasts with a notable change being a further increase to their gold price projection of an average 8 per cent over 2025 and 2026, driving a rise in their gold net asset value estimates by 13 per cent and EBITDA estimates 15 per cent.
“We increase our 2025 gold forecast to $3,267/oz (up 3 per cent vs. prior) and 2026 forecast to $3,931/oz (up 13 per cent vs. prior),” they said. “Our outlook is for range bound gold prices in 2H25 vs. current prices of $3,650/oz up 35 per cent year-to-date), but we expect further upside over 2026 and forecast prices more than $4,000 in 2H26. We maintain our long-term gold price of $2,600/oz. Our view on gold equites remains positive, given attractive valuations and margins, improving return of capital trends, and conservative industry capital allocation. At spot gold, large-cap gold producers trade at 2025/26 FCF/EV yield of 6.9 per cent/6.9 per cent and EV/EBITDA of 6.8 times/6.2 times.
“Our preferred precious metals equities include Agnico Eagle, AngloGold Ashanti, Artemis Gold, Barrick Gold, Bellevue Gold, Coeur Mining, Endeavour Mining, G Mining, Gold Fields, Hochschild Mining, OR Royalties, Torex Gold, and Westgold Resources.”
While noting gold equities have risen “sharply” thus far in 2025 and equity valuations at spot also expanded in the second quarter, the analysts still view the outlook for gold equities as “being favourable, although upside is primarily influenced by our commodity views.”
“Gold prices ytd have increased by 35 per cent, while gold equities have outperformed sharply, increasing 90 per cnt,” they added. “This has resulted in an expansion of valuation multiples to their current levels of 1.17 times NAV and 6.9 per cent 2025/26 FCF/EV (up from 0.9 times and more than 8 per cent in May/June). Despite higher valuations, we believe gold equities at spot are still valued reasonably vs. broader equities, plus we highlight the sector’s growing net cash position, rising margins, high return of capital, and reasonably conservative underlying gold price assumptions for decision making. Gold equity ETF products have unusually continued to experience consistently elevated outflows, potentially a sign of low crowding. Conversely, retail interest in gold and gold equities is at new highs, a key historical counter-signal. These mixed data points provide some incremental caution vs. our recent views, but still we see the outlook as favourable and supported by rising gold prices.”
With the price deck adjustments, analyst Michael Siperco made three rating revisions, upgrading two stocks and downgrading another.
He raised his recommendations for these companies:
* Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” with a $17 target, rising from $11. The average target on the Street is $13.07, according to LSEG data.
Analyst: “While questions remain across the portfolio, we see ample opportunities for significant value creation to stay engaged. Our higher target reflects a 15-per-cent increase in the gold price forecast through 2030 ($3,550/oz average; see our commodity update here). Our upgrade to Outperform stems from the more than $3.00-billion in forecast FCF through YE27, even as cornerstone mines (Greenstone/Valentine) ramp up with no production expected from Los Filos – enough to eliminate debt at spot prices by YE26 without relying on potential asset sales. EQX trades at a discount to peers on NAV and especially FCF, offering strong re-rating potential into 2026 with limited downside."
* Iamgold Corp. (IAG-N, IMG-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” with a US$14 target, up from US$9 and exceeding the US$11.01 average.
Analyst: “Cote has essentially reached nameplate capacity and our focus is now shifting to longer term upside from Gosselin, expansion, and potentially Nelligan/Monster Lake. We now model $2.5-billion in FCF on our 15-per-cent higher gold price forecast through YE30 ($3,550 vs. $3,100/oz previously), potentially repaying debt entirely in 2026, while funding further growth. The de-risked production and balance sheet coupled with Gosselin potential (study planned for 2026) drives our upgrade to Outperform.”
Conversely, Mr. Siperco downgraded Centerra Gold Inc. (CG-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” with a $14 target, up from $13 and topping the $12.58 average.
“Centerra is entering a significant investment phase, advancing three projects (Thompson Creek, Goldfield, Kemess), while Mount Milligan struggles to meet guidance and Oksut production declines” he said. “Lower gold exposure (more copper, molybdenum) and Mount Milligan’s 30-per-cent gold stream discount cap near-term upside to high prices. Despite deep value, we expect investors to prefer producers with nearer-term production/FCF growth and greater leverage to precious metals.”
Calling it “a leader on a lag,” RBC’s Josh Wolfson raised Newmont Corp. (NEM-N, NGD-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” and hiked his target to US$95 from US$66, seeing “a tactical buying opportunity” after lagging peers recently. The average is US$77.23.
“Newmont is in the early stages of its operational turnaround and has been delivering upon a clearly-articulated plan. In early 2025, NEM outlined a plan to execute upon its targets, divest non-core assets, generate free cash flow, and return excess capital to shareholders primarily via share repurchases. In our view, the company has been progressing this plan favourably over 1H, largely supported by the completion of its divestiture plans and above-target operating execution. In 1H, NEM generated elevated FCF of $2.9-billion (partially supported by one-time items), while we forecast the company is tracking well to its guidance and at spot could generate a further $3.5-$4.0-billion in FCF over 2H. In 1H, NEM completed $1.4-billion in share repurchases and the company authorized a further $3-billlion. Put simply, we believe NEM is well-positioned to achieve its targets, generate high FCF, and return excess capital to shareholders, where shareholders are well-positioned to capture this upside in a rising gold price environment.”
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Scotia Capital analyst Orest Wowkodaw sees Teck Resources Ltd.’s (TECK.B-T) agreement to be acquired by British mining giant Anglo American PLC as “mixed” for its shares.
“On one hand, the deal serves to highlight the intrinsic value of the company despite all the recent operational challenges,“ he said. ”Moreover, the industrial logic of an Anglo-Teck combination is compelling due to the material operational synergies available in Chile. However, the timing of this deal is hard to understand from a Teck perspective, and the relatively modest implied premium, along with the loss of a Canadian mining champion and the primary listing, are all disappointments.
“In our view, approval for the proposed transaction is not a certainty given a separate vote is required for class B shareholders. Due to the scarcity of available large scale Cu assets, we believe that the possibility of an interloper for either company is elevated, and we would not be surprised to see a bidding war emerge. With any foreign buyer, we anticipate a relatively high level of Canadian regulatory scrutiny on a Teck sale.”
Exchangeable Anglo Teck shares mean Canadian investors could defer capital gains tax
In a client note titled The Proposed Anglo-Teck Combination Could Just Be the Beginning of the End; But Why Now We Ask?, Mr. Wowkodaw said there is a “strong strategic fit” with the deal, pointing to “significant” synergies after both companies recently restructured their asset portfolios to focus on copper. However, he expects close regulatory scrutiny and the potential other bidders.
“Given the scarcity of available large scale Cu assets, we believe that the possibility of an interloper (for either Teck and/or Anglo) is relatively high now that the company has been officially put in play, and we would not be surprised to see a bidding war emerge, especially given the proposed transaction is an all share deal with relatively limited conditions," he explained.
“In our view, other logical potential suitors for Teck include BHP (BHP-L; not rated), Freeport McMoran (FCX-N; SO), Glencore (GLEN-L; not rated), and Rio Tinto (RIO-L; not rated). Similar to Anglo, Glencore would stand to benefit from the significant Collahuasi synergies, and the company already attempted to acquire Teck in 2023. BHP has the largest wallet in the group, and it recently failed in its attempt to acquire Anglo for similar assets. Freeport and Rio Tinto have the firepower to get involved; both companies would love to add more Americas Cu growth to the portfolio in our view. Moreover, BHP, Glencore, and Rio Tinto all have significant operating assets in Canada already, while Anglo has none. While a lower probability in our view, the three large gold miners, Agnico Eagle (AEM-N), Barrick (B-N), and Newmont (NEM-N) could also show possible interest in Teck given the attractiveness of Cu and the ability to issue paper in an elevated Au price environment. Agnico and Barrick also have the unique ability to create a ‘Made in Canada’ solution. In our view, a US$330-milion break free is not a prohibitive figure to a potential interloper for either company given the size of the potential prize. We find it difficult to see how Anglo competes for Teck if the larger miners with much stronger balance sheets get involved. While the Keevil family can technically block an unwanted deal (until mid-2029), Dr. Keevil previously stated that he would not stand in the way of a shareholder supported transaction post the coal separation."
While he sees the implied takeout value as “not overly compelling,” Mr. Wowkodaw hiked his target for Teck shares to $70 from $55 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $59.17.
"Despite Tuesday’s share price bump of 12 per cent, we estimate that Teck shares are trading at still reasonable 2026E-27E EV/EBITDA multiples of 7.5 times and 8.1 times, and at P/NAVPS(8 per cent) of 1.40 times; this represents a discount to the large cap Cu peers (excluding IVN-T) trading at average 2026E-27E EV/EBITDA multiples of 7.9 times and 7.8 times, along with an average P/NAV(8 per cent) multiple of 1.60 times.
“Due to the current transaction, we would have anticipated Teck to be trading at a meaningful premium to the Cu peers. Given the extreme scarcity of available large scale Cu assets, we think a significant premium is warranted by a potential buyer. A 75-per-cent to 100-per-cent NAVPS (8-per-cent) premium in a bidding war scenario represents a potential value range of $68.00 to $77.00 per share in our view."
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Following several years of negative free cash flow stemming from Cenovus Energy Inc.’s (CVE-T) U.S. downstream operations, National Bank Financial analyst Travis Wood sees the sale of its 50-per-cent stake in two U.S. refineries for $1.9-billion in cash “as a positive one, allowing the company to focus on its core operated upstream and downstream business, while accelerating debt repayment.”
Shares of the Calgary-based company rose over 2 per cent on Tuesday following the premarket announcement of the deal to divest of its interest in WRB Refining LP to its joint venture partner, Phillips 66 (PSX-N). The assets include the Wood River Refinery in Illinois and the Borger Refinery in Texas, which have a combined refining capacity of 495,000 barrels a day.
“The nearly $2.0-billion in proceeds will be used to reduce debt, positioning the company to reach its first net debt target of $6-billion in late 2026/early 2027 (pivoting to 75-per-cent return of capital), while we estimate the restoration of 100-per-cent returns near the end of 2027 (when $4.0-billion net debt target is met),” said Mr. Wood. “We would not rule out additional divestitures, which could include offshore Canada as well as the conventional business. Cenovus also flagged they repurchased 18.8 million shares in August for $388-million.”
In response to the announcement, the analyst updated his forecast to account for the reduction in downstream throughput and lower expected capital expenditures. That led to an increase of 1 per cent to both his 2025 and 2026 cash flow forecasts and prompted him to raise his target for Cenovus shares by $1 to $29, keeping an “outperform” recommendation. The average target is $26.81.
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TD Cowen analyst Craig Hutchison expects Lundin Mining Corp.’s (LUN-T) recent outperformance to continue “driven by their ability to track well to current copper guidance, combined with a solid gold business, strong balance sheet, and copper growth pipeline.”
“LUN shares gained momentum after two solid quarters in a row, which is in contrast to many of their peers who have had operational issues,” he added.
In a note released Wednesday, Mr. Hutchison reaffirmed the Vancouver-based company’s spot on TD’s “Canada’s Best Ideas” equity list, emphasizing its growth potential.
“Material advancements in LUN’s producing mines and their Vicuña JV development implies strong upside potential to current production levels not fully reflected in our model,” he said. “Current active mines - which already perform well - are set for increased production growth through various growth projects. We believe the recent strong year-to-date share price performance of 30 per cent is warranted, with room to grow further as the growth pipeline materializes.
“What Is Underappreciated Or Misunderstood? While we feel that some concerns are warranted surrounding high capex spend at LUN’s Josemaria project (we model attributable $3.5-billion remaining as of Q2/25), LUN has a solid balance sheet position with only $375-million of net debt and is generating positive free cash flow at today’s copper and gold prices, allowing them to support the development of a Tier 1 asset.”
Maintaining a “buy” rating, the analyst raised his target for Lundin shares by $1 to $19. The average is $17.25.
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In other analyst actions:
* Following its acquisition of Adriatic Metals and the Vares Mine in Bosnia, RBC’s Michael Siperco resumed coverage of Dundee Precious Metals Inc. (DPM-T) with an “outperform” rating and $32 target, rising from $24. The average is $31.57.
“Adding Vares boosts near term production (and leverage to silver prices, now 20 per cent of revenue through 2028E), especially during the gap between the forecast closure of Ada Tepe in 2026 and the startup of Coka Rakita in 2028,” he said.
“The addition of Vares provides an immediate production/FCF boost, as well as addressing investor concerns about the prior decline in production between the expected closure of Ada Tepe in 2026 and before the start up of Coka Rakita in 2H28. The $1.25-billion transaction has already paid dividends, with Vares accounting for $2.0-billion in our model at spot prices (approximately 35 per cent of total NAV), and DPM shares outperforming the GDX index by 10 per cent since takeover talks were confirmed May 19.”
* CIBC’s Ty Collin cut his North West Co. Inc. (NWC-T) target to $58 from $59, keeping an “outperformer” rating. The average is $59.50.
"Overall FQ2 results were better than feared considering uncertainties from Canadian wildfires, supported by solid progress on efficiency initiatives. However, the quarter saw the emergence of some new headwinds, including softness in Alaska and additional funding disruptions within Canada. While these were negative updates, the core of our investment thesis is the expected benefit from the $23 billion Child Welfare settlement in Canada, which started being disbursed last month, ahead of expectations. Valuation remains modest at 16 times normalized F2025E P/E (vs. Canadian grocery peers at 16– 23 times), and we believe incremental downside is limited. Our F2025 estimates are largely consistent, as we model slower International growth offset by higher Canada sales and better margins," he said.
* Pointing to the "positive" work program underway following the release of assay results from 28 drill holes as part of the 2025 drill program at the Donlin Gold project in Alaska as well as a “supportive gold price backdrop whereby the spot gold price of US$3,649 is well above the NBCM long-term gold price deck at US$2,600/oz,” National Bank’s Rabi Nizami raised his Novagold Resources Inc. (NG-T) target to $10 from $7 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $8.50.
* Expecting "near-term commodity price (and potential tariff) headwinds for wood products may weigh on the Canadian LumberCos," CIBC’s Hamir Patel lowered his target for West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG-T) to $119 from $122 with an “outperformer” rating. The average is $97.14.
"With its low-cost position in both lumber and OSB, and strong balance sheet, WFG is well positioned to navigate challenging wood products markets," he added.