Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen acknowledges Air Canada’s (AC-T) relative valuation, which has been the primary driver of his investment thesis, remains “attractive”, he see several headwinds that will likely impact for further share price upside in the near-to-medium term as well as “a lack of positive catalysts to drive the stock higher.”
That led him to downgrade his recommendation to “sector perform” from “outperform” ahead of the Nov. 4 release of its third-quarter financial results.
“Q3 results will be marred by the direct financial impact from the Flight Attendant strike as well as indirect costs such as passenger compensation/re-booking costs,” said Mr. Doerksen. “We also expect yield erosion in Q3 and possibly into Q4 due to elevated seat-sale activity post-strike. We have lowered our Q3 EBITDA estimate to $913-million from $1.3-billion previously (pre-strike forecast). While a significant financial impact from the strike is expected by the market, we see Q3 results as unlikely to be a positive catalyst for the stock.
“While overall industry capacity into Q4 looks rational, early indications are that industry sun market capacity this winter will be significantly higher as airlines shift capacity away from U.S. transborder routes. Transat management recently noted that its expectation is that industry capacity this winter could be up 10 per cent and historically when there are material capacity increases on these markets, yields come under pressure.”
In a client note released late Tuesday, the analyst warned both labour concerns and the health of the Canadian consumer remain significant risks for Air Canada moving forward.
“Overall air travel demand in Canada has held in through the summer, despite elevated economic uncertainty and the material decline in Canadian travel to the U.S.,” he explained. “However, with consumer confidence in Canada still low and unemployment creeping higher, risks to a slowdown in travel demand and pricing pressure are arguably moving higher.
“Labour risk again in 2026. Air Canada has now faced labour-related disruptions in each of the last two years and likely faces labour-related risk again in 2026 as additional union contracts come up for renewal. We are hopeful that disruptions can be avoided, but the potential for more labour issues next year may weigh on the stock’s valuation.”
With his lower earnings expectations, Mr. Doerksen reduced his target for the company’s shares to $22 from $26. The average target on the Street is $25.54, according to LSEG data.
“Air Canada shares still trade at a sizable discount to its closest peers,” he said. “On our updated 2026 forecast, Air Canada shares are trading at just 3.3 times EV/EBITDA. This is below the historical average forward multiple (excluding the pandemic years) of 3.9 times EV/EBITDA and is also well below the U.S. legacy airline peer group, which trades at 5.8 times 2026 EV/EBITDA on average.
“We value the stock by applying a 4.0 times EV/EBITDA multiple to our 2026 EBITDA forecast. After some modest downward adjustments to our forecast, our new target is $22.00, down from $26.00 previously. Although our new target represents a 15-per-cent return from the current share price, given the headwinds and lack of catalysts noted above, this return is not overly compelling in our view. We therefore lower our rating on the stock to Sector Perform from Outperform.”
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Scotia Capital analyst Kevin Krishnaratne upgraded Open Text Corp. (OTEX-Q, OTEX-T) to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” previously, citing "increased conviction" in its Content Management business, which accounts for approximately 40 per cent of revenue and he sees “as an underappreciated asset.”
“We see a business operating at a ‘Rule-of-40′ revenue growth/ Adj. EBITDA margin profile with all the elements to push towards ‘Rule-of-50′ in time given OTEX’s unique position as a centralized system of record for all content generated within leading applications (SAP, Salesforce, Microsoft),“ he said. ”While we’re not calling OTEX an AI company, we think it is going to be a strong beneficiary of the technology with its Aviator tools enabling Enterprises to drive business productivity (solving specific business tasks) behind the corporate firewall, leveraging the company’s decades long history of organizing unstructured data in a protected environment. Content Cloud growth in FY25 was an impressive 17 per cent, we think largely driven by AI readiness initiatives."
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Krishnaratne argues the Waterloo, Ont.-based company is “growing by shrinking” and “simplifying the story.”
“Beyond what we expect to be a steadily improving organic growth profile over the coming quarters led by Content Management, we also see a number of positive catalysts in the near term that should continue to drive a re-rating of the stock,” he said. “First, we expect several divestitures of non-core assets (SMB Cybersecurity, ADM/DevOps, Analytics), perhaps one per quarter, representing $1.2-billion of revenue from a base of $5.2-billion in FY25 which we think can yield $2.4-billion in proceeds and reduce leverage from 2.9 times to PF 2.0 times. We see these divestitures helping to expose a stronger underlying operating profile - OTEX’s 3.0-per-cent organic decline in FY25 looks closer to down 0.9 per cent on the core (with Cloud growth 5.8 per cent vs. the reported 1.9 per cent). Second, we look forward to refreshed leadership with new Board members adding Enterprise Software expertise and the hiring of a new CEO (likely brings solutions/sales experience vs. prior management’s product focus) and CFO. Third, a refined M&A strategy more of the tuck-in variety, doubling down on OTEX’s leadership in Content (perhaps new geos or verticals), to fuel the segment’s strong growth profile."
He now has a US$50 target for Open Text’s Nasdaq-listed shares, rising from US$35 and exceeding the US$36.84 average.
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Metals and mining analysts at National Bank Financial feel the macroeconomic backdrop “remains supportive” of precious metal prices, pointing to “ongoing political uncertainty, declining real rates, persistent inflation and central banks remaining net purchasers.”
In a research report released Wednesday, the firm reaffirmed its bullish on the outlook for prices in the months ahead, modelling a gold price of US$3,750 per ounce and US$42.50 per ounce silver through the end of 2027, seeing “unprecedented demand.”
The analysts also increased their long-term price projections to US$2,750 per ounce for gold (from US$2,600) and US$32.50 per ounce for silver (from US$29.00), after gold posed a new all-time high this week “and approaching an unprecedented nine consecutive months of price increases.”
“Incorporating higher metal prices, as well as recent multiple expansion, has moved nearly all target prices higher,” they said. “We continue to see more torque at this stage of the cycle for silver relative to gold and more relative value in producers relative to royalty companies.”
For copper, the firm thinks supply disruptions will continue to offset near-term demand uncertainty, forecasting a deficit in markets in 2025 :despite a cautious demand outlook as there remains significant uncertainty in near-term production outlook from operations like Kamoa-Kakula and QB and uncertainty in timing of a restart from Cobré-Panama."
National Bank also predicted a rebound in uranium prices due to “strong policy support” and raised their near-term spot prices to “reflect continuous positive headlines in Q3/25.” They remain “cautious” on lithium in the near-term despite a recent speculation rally, forecasting a surplus in 2025 and 2026 “though much smaller than prior given the positive strong demand seen.”
With changes to their targets for stocks in their coverage universe, the analysts laid out their top picks across the sector, which are:
Precious Metals
* Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI-T) with an “outperform” rating and $56 target, up from $53.50. The average on the Street is $52.49.
Analyst Don DeMarco: “Slow start to the year has consolidated production (NBCM estimate 584k oz) tracking below the midpoint of the FY25G range of 580-630k oz, however operating traction improving in Q3/25 with AISC [all-in sustaining costs] expected to rebound 7 per cent lower quarter-over-quarter; and continued de-risking at the Magino mill ramp-up.”
* Artemis Gold Inc. (ARTG-X) with an “outperform” rating and $40.50 target, up from $37. Average: $41.11.
Mr. DeMarco: “First pour (January) and commercial production (May) achieved without incident supporting confidence in operations teams. 2025 guidance confirms lower decile costs with visibility for a step-change in cash flow in 2026, de-leveraging and funding Phase 2 in due course.”
* Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX-T) with an “outperform” rating and $60 target, up from $51. Average: $46.60.
Analyst Shane Nagle: “We recently upgraded Barrick as the Company has seen several positive developments recently. After the company achieved positive operational performance across its portfolio for production and cost control with Q2 reporting, it recently announced the sale of Hemlo for US$1.09-billion which will support an increase to Barrick’s ongoing US$1.0-billion share buyback program.”
* Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDV-T) with an “outperform” rating an $70 target, up from $57. Average: $56.94.
Analyst Mohamed Sidibé: “Following a challenging 2024 at the corporate governance level and at the operating levels, Endeavour Mining is now back to delivering on the operational front and generating impressive FCF over the last three quarters benefiting from the current elevated gold prices thanks to its attractive overall low cost profile. This is a company that has met or exceeded its annual production guidance in 11 out of the last 12 year.”
* Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR-T) with an “outperform” rating and $16 target, up from $10. Average: $9.23.
Analyst Alex Terentiew: “Over the next few months, Endeavour Silver is set to deliver a significant, company-changing transformation as it’s flagship Terronera mine ramps up and declares commercial production (anticipated within the coming weeks) and its newly acquired Kolpa mine is integrated into the company. These two new mines are set to deliver peer-leading growth, more than doubling production and significantly improving margins as asset quality improves.”
* G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN-T) with an “outperform” rating and $30 target, up from $24. Average: $26.18.
Analyst Rabi Nizami: “G Mining remains a long-term Top Pick, as the Senior-worthy team of mine builders is demonstrating an ability to deliver projects on time and on budget, partnered with G Mining Services (GMS), a full-service mining consultancy powerhouse whose track record includes construction of Fruta Del Norte, Merian, Essakane and others on time and under budget. With multiple builds under their belt, GMS has access to global networks and expertise in procurement, supply chain and construction management. The team has demonstrated their ability by bringing the TZ mine online on time and budget, now ramping up to deliver production of 175-200 koz/year, with early years output stabilizing closer to ~200 koz.”
* IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG-T) with an “outperform” rating and $21 target, up from $15.50. Average: $14.27.
Mr. Sidibé: “We expect IAMGOLD to deliver on its unchanged production outlook of 735-800 koz (NBCMe 741 koz), despite the change in non-controlling interest at Essakane effective from end of Q2/25. With the Côté Gold ramp up continuing to progress well and mining and milling costs expected to improve as re-handling is reduced, and a secondary crusher is installed in Q4/25, IAMGOLD is entering its FCF inflection point with expected FCF of $302-million in H2/25 and $1.33-billion in 2026 at our price deck.”
* Torex Gold Resources Inc. (TXG-T) with an “outperform” rating an $75 target, up from $71. Average: $64.22.
Mr. DeMarco: “Morelos flirting with world-class status with over 500 oz/year for more than 10 years, AISC in the lower half of the industry cost curve, in premium geological districts with the potential for organic reserve growth. Transitioned to positive FCF in June 2025, with Media Luna currently ramping-up. Mining rates on track for 7,500 tpd in Q2/26. We expect an inaugural dividend announcement and rapid de-leveraging to follow.”
Base Metals
* Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T) with an “outperform” rating and $12 target, up from $9.75. Average: $11.38.
Analyst Shane Nagle: “CS had earlier highlighted that it is in advanced discussions on a minority stake sale of its Santo Domingo project, expected to be announced in Q3/25. CS had earlier provided a detailed plan for the pathway forward at the asset and a minority stake sale could represent a significant catalyst by supporting our valuation for the project as a strategic is likely to ascribe value to additional shallow oxide material, cobalt optionality, potential for high-grade iron ore premiums and additional synergies with the adjacent Mantoverde operation.”
* Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) with an “outperform” rating and $20 target, up from $17.50. Average: $17.33.
Mr. Nagle: “The sale of its European business provides financial flexibility to execute on synergy opportunities between Candelaria/Caserones/Josemaria/Filo del Sol as well as bolster the balance sheet ahead of any significant capital deployment in Argentina.”
* NGEx Minerals Ltd. (NGEX-T) with an “outperform” rating and $28 target, up from $18. Average: $20.46.
Mr. Nizami: “NGEx completed a Phase 3, 25,000-metre drill program in 2025 which was highly successful in expanding known mineralization at the Lunahuasi deposit and increasing the scale of the discovery which continues to grow in all directions. The entire strike length on NGEx claims is host to large high grade structures, which are still open and in the early stages of being drilled. A Phase 4 program is expected to be announced shortly with drilling anticipated to begin in October.”
* Solaris Resources Inc. (SLS-T) with an “outperform” rating and $13.50 target, up from $12.50. Average: $15.14.
Mr. Nagle: “The Company continues to advance its large-scale Warintza project which is one of few ‘doable’ mining projects of scale available within a single-asset company. Earlier this year, SLS announced a US$200.0-million royalty and streaming transaction with Royal Gold that provides improved financial flexibility as it advances the project towards an investment decision.”
Critical Minerals
* Denison Mines Corp. (DML-T) with an “outperform” rating and $4.50 target, up from $3.90. Average: $4.01.
Mr. Sidibé: “Denison’s diversified portfolio of assets provides investors with exposure to an attractive pipeline of low-costs greenfield projects located in the Athabasca basin which is host to the largest and highest grade uranium deposits. Notably, the company’s flagship asset, the Phoenix ISR is a low-cost project expected to produce 56 million pounds U3O8 over a 10-year mine life at an AISC of $36.74/lb based on our estimates.”
* NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T) with an “outperform” rating and $14 target, up from $12. Average: $14.62.
Mr. Sidibé: “NexGen owns the Rook I Project, host to the flagship Arrow deposit, one of the world’s largest undeveloped high-grade uranium deposits that is basement-hosted with the ability to be processed using conventional mining and processing methods, removing some of the engineering risks. Once producing, Rook I will have the capacity to produce close to 30 million pounds per annum in its initial years, representing over 20 per cent of current world production.”
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National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev predicts "incoming ‘nation-building’ projects should narrow Canada’s infrastructure gap," leading him to extend his “valuation runway” for direct beneficiaries.
"With the recently-elected Canadian Federal government taking a much more friendly stance towards Canada’s oil & gas and infrastructure sectors and confrontational U.S. trade policy weighing on the national economy (highlighting the need for stimulatory spending), we expect fixed asset investment across the country to ramp up significantly in the coming decade," he said. “While the United States’ fixed capital formation (a broad-based proxy for infrastructure investment) has consistently trended upwards following the 2008 – 09 financial crisis, Canadian spending has been caught in a structural downdraft for 10+ years. While the current level (22.7 per cent of GDP in 2024 as per the World Bank) is above the mid-1990’s trough, it remains well off prior highs and prior underinvestment has created a degree of pent-up demand as existing infrastructure needs to be modernized and, in many cases, replaced entirely. The September 11th announcement to expedite the necessary assessments and consultations of the first 5-project tranche was the first (in admittedly a very long list) step in closing the national infrastructure gap.
Pointing to an article in the Globe and Mail that highlighted a draft list of 32 major projects that could be fast-tracked by the administrations Major Projects Office over the subsequent months and years, the analyst added: “While we of course recognize that not every project will move forward and individual project scopes may be pulled back, the sheer size of the spending envelope represents a significant incremental uplift to the addressable market for our engineering, construction, and heavy equipment coverage.”
Mr. Sytchev estimated total capital expenditures for these projects will likely be “in the range of several hundred billion (rough math points to $400-bilion), even 10 per cent of the revenue opportunity could represent an additional $40+ billion for our coverage over the next 10 to 20 years.”
“For context, the entire market cap of our coverage stands at about $150 billion,” he said “Assuming a GDP multiplier of 1.2 for the associated spending, a $20-billion annual increase would push fixed capital formation intensity closer to the 24-per-cent mark – hardly an exorbitant level by historical standards."
In a client note released Wednesday, the analyst emphasized valuations for U.S. construction and engineering peers are now decoupling from historical trends, suggesting that could be “sign of things to come in Canada.”
“U.S. peers still command higher valuations, supported by stronger investor sentiment toward Electrification/Infrastructure and a more robust U.S. spending outlook - driven by the larger absolute impact of IIJA funding and accelerating AI data centre capacity needs,” said Mr. Sytchev. “As Canadian mega-projects ramp up, we expect this valuation gap to narrow, creating upside for Canadian names that remain within their historical valuation ranges despite above‑trend growth ahead."
“As a result of accelerating infrastructure spending and significantly improved visibility for Canada-focused construction and heavy equipment names (especially TIH as more early-on projects are Eastern Canada skewed), we are introducing forecasts for 2027E for ARE, BDT and TIH and rolling our valuation anchor forward by 12 months (and increasing TIH’s target P/E multiple by 1 times), lifting our price targets accordingly.”
The analyst made these target adjustments for his “preferred plays” in the sector:
* Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T, “outperform”) to $26 from $23. The average is $25.54.
* Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T, “outperform”) to $34 from $28. Average: $33.56.
* Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T, “outperform”) to $164 from $140. Average: $148.78.
“Generally speaking, construction and heavy equipment names are the most domestically levered from a top line perspective with the majority of sales being derived from Canada (Russel’s construction/infra exposure is less direct and manufacturing is a significant part of the business, while ACQ is ultimately leveraged to retail consumption),” he said. “Within this bucket, as pure-play construction companies Aecon (even with recent U.S.-focused expansion) and Bird represent the most direct opportunities for investors to gain exposure to the accelerating infra spending theme while Toromont is clear favourite on the equipment side of the ledger.”
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Seeing an "attractive entry point" given his view that Dominion Lending Centres Inc. (DLCG-T) is “in the early innings of a multi-year, multi-pronged growth story,” Canaccord Genuity analyst Matthew Lee initiated coverage with a “buy” recommendation.
“In Canada, homeownership is inseparable from mortgage financing, making borrowing decisions both financially significant and deeply personal,” he said. “As such, an increasing number of Canadians are turning to brokers to compare rates, simplify the application process, and provide unbiased expert advice. In our view, this creates a meaningful opportunity for Dominion Lending Centres (DLCG), which is leveraging its operational scale, well-known brands, and Velocity tech platform to grow its share of mortgage activity, even while the broader housing market remains sluggish.
“In our view, DLCG has the requisite levers to drive 13 per cent revenue growth in fiscal 2026, with margin expansion on the back of greater scale and an evolving sales mix.”
He set a target of $11.50 for Dominion shares, exceeding the consensus of $11.19.
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National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar thinks Groupe Dynamite Inc.‘s (GRGD-T) “strong" same-store sales track record and growth outlook “suggests opportunity remains.”
“We believe GRGD’s robust share price return reflects a strong sssg [same-store sales growth] track record, superior profitability metrics vs. other apparel retailers as well as significant future growth expectations. (2) If GRGD can continue to deliver double-digit sssg (supported by its ongoing expansion in the U.S. and real estate high-grading), we believe there is opportunity for further multiple expansion. NBCM models F2025 sssg of 19 per cent, which may be conservative (guidance is 17-19 per cent). (3) In terms of blue sky valuation, we note that lululemon (NYSE: LULU; not covered), during its strong phase of double-digit sssg, traded at a recent peak EV/EBITDA of 20.3 times (IFRS 16 adjusted) in December 2023 (comparable metrics to GRGD; F2022 ROIC of 54 per cent and EBITDA margin of 29 per cent with sssg of 25 per cent). ... (4) If GRGD were to trade at 20 times NTM [next 12-month] EV/EBITDA, we calculate a share price of $72 (upside of 22 per cent),” he said.
Maintaining his investment thesis for the Montreal-based retailer as well as its “top pick” designation, Mr. Shreehar raised his target to $66 from $55 with an “outperform” rating, emphasizing it is "differentiated by strong financial metrics, with an EBITDA margin and ROIC that are amongst the highest in our apparel group." The average on the Street is $57.42.
"GRGD shares have meaningfully outperformed recently," he said. “(1) ... we review our price target for GRGD following a strong 42.7-per-cent stock price appreciation in a short time frame since reporting Q2/F25 results. This compares with the TSX Composite Index returning 2.7 per cent over the same time period. (2) Since adding GRGD to our Top Pick (June 17, 2025), shares have appreciated 200.3 per cent vs. the TSX Composite Index returning 13.1 per cent.”
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In other analyst actions:
* Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan initiated coverage of High Tide Inc. (HITI-X) with a “buy” rating and $7.25 target. The average is $7.75.
"In our view, High Tide’s retail-first model, anchored by 207 Canna Cabana stores and 2.15 million plus loyalty members, delivers superior unit economics and recurring traffic in competitive Canadian markets,“ he said. ”With margin expansion from white-label brands and international catalysts via Remexian in Germany and the potential U.S. rescheduling, we view HITI as a compelling blend of defensive cash flow and global optionality."
* In response to Monday’s announcement of its acquisition of Edmonton-based Royal Camp Services, Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee hiked his Black Diamond Group Ltd. (BDI-T) target to $17 from $13.50, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is $15.33.
"In our view, not only did this deal make sense strategically, it also provides BDI with $30-milllion in annual FCF (18-per-cent yield), which will help fund further fleet growth and deleveraging,“ he said. ”On the synergies front, we view management’s $3-million near-term target as the tip of the iceberg and expect the opportunity for meaningful cost rationalization and utilization improvements as we step into F26. Post-close, we forecast leverage to remain reasonable at 2.2 times, with our estimates suggesting a return to the 1-range by the end of F26. Overall, we view the deal positively and believe that the transaction is congruent with BDI’s strategy of acquiring accretively and driving growth."
* Stifel’s Ralph Profiti raised his Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN-T) target to $16 from $13.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $15.36.
“We increase our TP ... based on positive takeaways from our site visit to Kakula underground, including the progress of dewatering and mine rehabilitation, preliminary physical observation of the current condition of the eastern side of Kakula underground, including working stopes and flooded areas, and the openness and technical transparency of management’s recovery and action plan. Management remains comfortable with the progress made and confident in the dewatering schedule as well as the medium-term target of returning copper production to more than 550Ktpa level,” he said. “More thorough geotechnical assessments and the updated IDP2026 in Q1/26 will form the basis of stronger conviction in the long-term thesis and a sustainable return of the Ivanhoe growth multiple, including a net increase in MRE with throughput of Phase 1 & 2 and 3 plants running above nameplate at combined 17Mtpa at higher mining rates and slightly lower head grades.”
* Jefferies’ Laurence Alexander cut his Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC-N, LAC-T) target to US$7 from US$8 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$4.88.
* Mr. Alexander raised his target for Methanex Corp. (MEOH-Q, MX-T) to US$53 from US$45 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$49.88.