Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Drew McReynolds is “cautiously optimistic” on a stronger 2026 for Canadian media companies.
“Most Canadian media stocks continue to underperform the broader market in 2025, which we attribute to both cyclical and structural headwinds despite the avoidance of worst-case tariff and economic scenarios for the North American economy and a relative degree of resilience in advertising spend,” he said. “As H2/25 progresses, we would not be surprised to see some further softness in the Canadian advertising market as lingering tariff-induced uncertainty weighs in on advertisers and advertising budgets. Having said this, we are cautiously optimistic on a better backdrop emerging in 2026 should real GDP growth in North America re-accelerate consistent with RBC Economics’ forecasts. Our focus this quarter will be management commentary on the seasonally strongest Q4/25 period for advertising, recent company conversations with advertisers, and Q4/25 pacing.”
In a research report previewing third-quarter earnings season titled Could Be Worse, Could Be Better, Mr. McReynolds said he sees advertising “grinding along but avoiding the worst.”
“In Q3/25, we expect most of the companies in our diversified media coverage with advertising exposure to experience softness driven by the impact of tariff-induced uncertainty on advertisers and advertising spend,” he said. “Having said this, we believe advertising overall has demonstrated reasonable resilience relative to most of the more negative tariff-induced scenarios exiting Q1/25. Should Canada avoid a recession in H2/25 with real GDP growth accelerating through 2026 (consistent with RBC Economics’ forecasts), we see the potential for upward earnings revisions as 2026 plays out. Within the Canadian advertising market, we continue to expect relative strength in digital advertising, albeit with digital clearly susceptible to any renewed programmatic CPM pressure and a broader pullback in category spend should tariff-induced uncertainty weigh in more in Q4/25.”
For investors, he recommends “riding out the current choppy environment in the higher quality names with respect to earnings resilience and/or balance sheets and FCF.” He said his “best ideas” are:
* Cineplex Inc. (CGX-T) with an “outperform” rating and $14 target. The average on the Street is $14.04, according to LSEG data.
Analyst: “We believe a strengthened theatrical release window, added film supply from streaming platforms, resilient consumer demand, and renewed momentum within diversification businesses (media, location-based entertainment) have bolstered Cineplex’s earnings power and visibility through 2025 with the prospect of a stronger box office in 2026. At a FTM [forward 12-month] EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.8 times versus an historical range of 6.0–13.0 times, we continue to see value in the shares given Cineplex’s higher-growth, more diversified and differentiated asset mix, and stronger competitive position relative to peers, as well as enhanced capital returns and strategic optionality. While media and location-based entertainment are not immune to rising economic headwinds, theatrical exhibition has historically proven resilient. "
* Transcontinental Inc. (TCL.A-T) with an “outperform” rating and $26 target. Average: $24.75.
Analyst: “Transcontinental is successfully transitioning from legacy commercial printing to packaging and retail services with a return to underlying EBITDA growth in F2024 bolstered by cost efficiencies. With the stock trading at 5.1 times FTM EV/EBITDA versus an average of 7.3 times for packaging peers (each 0.5-times increase in multiple equates to $2.50/share), we continue to see value in the shares, particularly given significant FCF generation ($2.50/share), management’s track record of solid execution, the strong balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA of 1.6 times in F2025E) and healthy capital returns (dividends, share repurchases).”
* Stingray Group Inc. (RAY.A-T) with an “outperform” rating and $14 target, up from $13. Average: $13.25.
Analyst: “Against the backdrop of a continuously evolving global audio and video landscape, we believe management continues to execute on identifying and capitalizing on new revenue growth opportunities that include retail media, FAST channels, SVOD and in-car entertainment. While macro uncertainty could increasingly weigh on advertising and become an incremental revenue headwind, we believe these opportunities in aggregate have enhanced the company’s revenue visibility in F2026. We expect this improved growth and risk profile combined with mid-30-per-cent adjusted EBITDA margins and 60-per-cent EBITDA-to-FCF conversion to translate to steady NAV growth driving further upside in the shares.”
Mr. McReynolds also made these target adjustments:
* Corus Entertainment Inc. (CJR.B-T, “sector perform”) to 15 cents from 20 cents. Average: 7 cents.
Analyst: “Given the step-back in earnings visibility following the non-renewal of WBD programming and in light of a structurally challenged linear television advertising market, Corus continues to make progress on its four key priorities - channel transition, cost reductions, balance sheet/liquidity and regulatory relief. Until more progress is demonstrated on each of these fronts and a more sustainable capital structure is instituted, we expect equity value to be under considerable pressure and in flux, with the risk profile of the stock notably elevated.”
* Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T, “outperform”) to $29 from $30. Average: $28.75.
Analyst: “For Spin Master, we expect a very challenging Q3/25 given the tariff-induced change in U.S. retailer order patterns from FOB to domestic, which had the effect of deferring orders in what is typically the seasonally strongest quarter for Spin Master. While such a deferral would imply a stronger Q4/25, the flow-through impact of higher toy prices on consumer spending due to tariffs has yet to be fully understood. On a positive note, both Mattel and Hasbro reiterated/increased 2025 guidance on the back of strong retailer demand exiting Q3/25 and early in Q4/25 against the backdrop of relatively low inventory levels.”
* Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-N/TRI-T, “sector perform”) to US$182 from US$208. Average: US$197.88.
Analyst: “In Q3/25, we expect Thomson Reuters to meet its in-quarter guidance for Q3/25 with little change to what are solid fundamentals. We believe the company remains on track to meet its 2025 and 2026 outlooks with organic revenue growth taking a sequential step-up in H2/25 (versus 6.5 per cent in H1/25) driven by sustained more than 8-per-cent growth in Legal Professionals. As we continue to size up the growth and risk profile of the stock with a focus on agentic AI impacts over the medium-term, we do see a more reasonable risk-return set-up following the recent pullback in the shares given: (i) line-of-sight on more than 8 per cent consolidated organic revenue growth in 2026; (ii) ongoing execution on the generative and agentic AI roadmap; and (iii) a solid balance sheet and attractive capital return profile.”
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Stifel analyst Martin Landry sees Groupe Dynamite Inc. (GRGD-T) moving into a new phase as a publicly traded company, attracting a large-cap investor base following its recent “strong” share price performance in contrast to small-cap investors at the time of its initial public offering in November of 2024.
In a research report released late Tuesday following recent investor meetings with the Montreal-based clothing retailer, Mr. Landry attributed those share gains to three factors:
1. “Provocative and sexy positioning.”
“In the last 10 years, management has increased the age of its target market,” he explained. “At the beginning, the company’s muse was 16 years old, but 6 years ago, management aged their Garage muse to 21 years old, and subsequently again to 24 years old more recently. This resulted in a broader target market and the possibility of positioning the brand in a more sexy and edgy way. With provocative marketing campaigns, Garage is pushing boundaries more than competitors and this positioning explains part of the recent successes.”
2. A focus on athleisure wear.
“Another change implemented in recent years has been a migration towards offering more athleisure clothing and a slight move away from the streetwear look,” he said. “The athleisure trend is undeniable and has been enhanced by retailers such as Alo Yoga and Vuori. Garage has beefed up its offering of athleisure clothes in recent years and that category has gained lots of traction. The product strategy has moved away from occasions such as nights out to more of an “on-duty and off duty”, catering to day-time occasions. That transition is another explanation of the company’s recent success."
3. Capitalizing on the “benefits from trade down patterns.”
“In our view, the third trend that explains the recent successes of the company are trade down shopping patterns,” he said. “With an average unit retail price of $43 at the end of FY24, GRGD has an affordable price point from which its customer base can indulge without feeling too guilty.”
Citing increased visibility from credit and debit card data. which he said “suggests that Groupe Dynamite continues to have strong momentum in the United States,” Mr. Landry raised his third-quarter earnings per share estimate by 15 per cent to 57 cents, which sets a new high on the Street and tops the current consensus by 4 cents. His comparable sales growth assumption increases by 1000 basis points to a growth 26 per cent year-over-year, believing “Garage is currently gaining significant market share.”
“Q3FY25 earnings could surprise to the upside again,” said Mr. Landry. “Groupe Dynamite exceeded consensus expectations in the four quarters reported since the IPO. Given current momentum we believe there is a good likelihood that GRGD outperform expectations in Q3FY25. We increased our Q3FY25 EPS by 15 per cent to $0.57, the highest level among consensus estimates. This would represent an EPS increase of 40 per cent year-over-year, a strong growth pace rewarding investors. We see potential upside to our estimates as we assume an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 120 basis points year-over-year to 34.9 per cent, a lower level than Q2FY25 of 36.9 per cent.”
Maintaining his “buy” recommendation for Groupe Dynamite shares, Mr. Landry hiked his target to a Street-high $80 from $53, citing its momentum. The average target is $59.08.
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Following “another strong quarterly beat and raise,” RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber predicts Celestica Inc.’s (CLS-N/CLS-T) valuation premium is likely to be sustained, pointing to “high visibility to sustained more than 25-per-cent growth, further margin expansion and [its] shift to higher quality business segment.”
How much longer can Celestica’s ascent continue?
The TSX-listed shares of the Toronto-based electronics manufacturer jumped 7.3 per cent on Tuesday after it reported revenue of US$3.194-billion for its third quarter, up 28 per cent year-over-year and exceeding the Street’s expectation of US$3.049-billion. Adjusted earnings per share jumped 51 per cent to US$1.57, topping the consensus forecast by 8 US cents.
“The midpoint of Q4 revenue guidance exceeded consensus by 11 per cent and adj. EPS guidance was 13 per cent ahead of consensus,” Mr. Treiber said. “Q3 upside primarily stems from data center networking momentum, as CCS Communications revenue grew 82 per cent year-over-year, up from 76 per cent Q2.
“FY26 guidance is a large positive upside surprise. FY26 guidance for $16.0-billion revenue (31 per cent year-over-year) and $8.20 adj. EPS (39 per cent year-over-year) was well above consensus at $14.1-billion and $6.94. Guidance appears to incorporate continued conservatism, as guidance assumes no meaningful revenue from Celestica’s large digital native win and only 40 basis points year-over-year margin expansion. While we’re only raising our FY26 estimates to align with guidance, Celestica exceeding FY26 guidance by just half the magnitude of FY25 implies $17.4-billion revenue and $9.57 adj. EPS.”
Seeing “high visibility to strong growth through 2027 and beyond” given the expectation its digital native customer portfolio will “ramp meaningfully,” Mr. Treiber raised his target for Celestica shares to US$400 from US$315, reiterating an “outperform” rating. The average is US$283.50.
“Celestica is benefiting from the unique combination of strong growth and an improved business mix,” he said. “Hyperscaler and HPS are on track to reach 57 per cent and 41 per cent, respectively, of total revenue in FY25. Due to Celestica’s strong competitive leadership in designing and manufacturing complex solutions at scale, Celestica is seeing market share gains, pricing resiliency and stickiness at its large customers. With typical 90 per cent win rates of follow-on business and high share of even non-sole sourced contracts, Celestica is well positioned to benefit from global AI data center ramps.”
“We believe Celestica warrants a premium to peers and its historical valuation, given faster adj. EPS growth and Celestica’s increasing mix of higher quality revenue”
Elsewhere, other analysts making target adjustments include:
* TD Cowen’s Daniel Chan to US$305 from US$238 with a “hold” rating.
“There was little to fault in the quarter; guidance implies momentum will continue into 2026, but management expects CCS to grow at least 40 per cent in 2027 that we believe is impressive. We believe this will be largely supported by the ramp-up of its digital native customer, which could become its largest customer. With several catalysts flushed out, we are maintaining our HOLD rating.”
* CIBC’s Todd Coupland to US$400 from US$315 with an “outperformer” rating.
* JP Morgan’s Samik Chatterjee increased his target to US$360 from US$295 with an “overweight” rating.
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Seeing recent share-price weakness as “an attractive entry point for a high-quality business,” TD Cowen analyst Graham Ryding upgraded TMX Group Ltd. (X-T) to “buy” from “hold” following in-line third-quarter results.
“We believe TMX will be able to defend its position from potential AI competition and concerns around equity tokenization,” he said.
“On the tokenization of equities theme, management is asking the following questions: 1) is tokenization a solution looking for a problem?; 2) what are the benefits to the retail audience?; and 3) how does the industry ensure equity tokenization maintains a level-playing field (avoid regulatory arbitrage)? This theme has the attention of management, the Board, and Canadian regulators. TMX has pilot projects underway on the trading, custody, and clearing side of its business. While the implications are highly fluid, the merits of tokenizing equities are not abundantly clear, in our view. In our preview note, we estimate that a manageable 5 per cent of TMX’s revenue could potentially be at risk over the medium term.”
Believing TMX will “evolve alongside AI developments,” Mr. Ryding raised his target for its shares to $60 from $58. The average is $62.50.
“TMX’s diversified business model and strong competitive positioning have defensive merits, in our view. Equity and derivative volumes have been strong in 2025, and Global Insights continues to drive growth. We believe TMX will be able to defend its position from potential AI competition and concerns around equity tokenization. Valuation is attractive, in our view,” he concluded.
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National Bank Financial analyst Mohamed Sidibé thinks the US$80-billion agreement between the United States government and reactor vendor Westinghouse Electric Co. and as well as its Canadian owners, Brookfield Asset Management (BAM-T) and Cameco Corp. (CCO-T), to spur construction of as many as eight large nuclear reactors “materially increases visibility on Westinghouse’s forward outlook within the new energy builds,” which he continues to believe is “underappreciated” by the Street.”
Shares of Cameco soared 22.9 per cent on Tuesday following the premarket announcement. It gained a 49-per-cent stake in Westinghouse back in 2022 with Brookfield selling the remainder of the company to its renewable energy arm, Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. (BEP-N, BEP.UN-T).
“We have updated our estimates for the timing of construction in the U.S., where we previously modeled only four reactors in construction by 2032 (with FID by 2029) to now eight reactors for a total 10 reactors driven by the policy support from this initiative,“ said Mr. Sidibé. “We keep our probability weighing on the U.S. reactors at 70 per cent, but have increased our core business revenue growth assumption beyond 2030 from 3 per cent to 3.3 per cent to reflect some of the additional upside potential from this development.
“Our value for Westinghouse increases from $39.80/sh to $42.66/sh or approximately 47 per cent of our total equity value. To reflect the premium that comes with the U.S. government partnership and further upside value that can be unearthed from CCO’s core uranium and fuel services business, we increase our NAV and EBITDA target multiples from 2.4 times and 18.00 times to 2.5 times and 20.00 times.”
With those changes, Mr. Sidibé raised his target for Cameco shares to $140 from $130, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $128.82.
“Cameco remains well positioned to benefit from tightening supply dynamics and higher uranium prices, supported by its long-term contract portfolio and strong balance sheet,” he added.
Elsewhere, others making target revisions for Cameco shares include:
* Stifel’s Ralph Profiti to $165 from $150 with a “buy” rating.
“In our view, the partnership structure greatly aligns public-private incentives to scale nuclear deployment and unlocks long-term value across energy and U.S. national security domains. We believe WEC can sustain higher long-term revenue growth rates vs. guidance of 6-8 per cent,” said Mr. Profiti.
* Scotia’s Orest Wowkodaw raised his Cameco target to $150 from $130 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“We rate CCO shares Sector Outperform based on improving fundamentals driven by the Western World agendas of decarbonization, energy independence, and power security,” said Mr. Wowkodaw.
* Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur to $150 from $130 with an “outperform” rating.
“CCO provides investors with lower-risk exposure to the uranium market given its diversification of sources. These sources are supported by a portfolio of long-term contracts that provide some downside protection in periods of depressed spot uranium prices, while maintaining optionality to higher uranium prices. In addition, CCO has multiple operations curtailed that could be brought back should uranium prices increase. CCO is also vertically integrated with Fuel Services, GLE, and Westinghouse. Although the 2021 tax court decision applies only to the 2003, 2005, and 2006 tax years, we view it as a positive for CCO given we believe it could be relevant in determining the outcome for other years and reduces risk related to the CRA dispute,” said Mr. MacArthur.
* BofA Securities’ Lawson Winder to $175 from $130 with a “buy” rating.
In a separate research note, Mr. Sidibé’s colleague Baltej Sidhu raised Brookfield Renewable target to US$34 from US$32 with an “outperform” recommendation. The average is US$30.64.
“Notably, if Westinghouse reaches a US$30-billion valuation, the USG may initiate an IPO where it can either convert its participation interest into equity or retain the option to do so within five years post-IPO,” said Mr. Sidhu. “This valuation would represent a 7 times multiple on BEP’s initial investment, implying a stake valued at US$5/unit. In our view, continued positive developments could establish US$30-billion as a valuation floor, with favourable implications for its cost of capital.”
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* Raymond James’ Frederic Bastien to $35 from $33 with an “outperform” rating.
“The announcement has positive implications for Brookfield Renewable, which owns an 11-per-cent equity interest in Westinghouse (BAM funds including co-investors own another 40-per-cent stake). It also builds on earlier framework agreements with Google and Microsoft for hydro and renewable power capacity, respectively, underscoring the critical role we expect BEP to play in today’s rapidly changing landscape for clean power globally,” said Mr. Bastien.
* Desjardins Securities’ Brent Stadler to US$46 from US$42 with a “hold” rating.
“We believe this US government agreement could lead to additional nuclear deals as the industry restarts. BEP provides investors exposure to exciting renewables, AI/datacentres and nuclear thematics,” said Mr. Stadler.
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CIBC World Markets analyst Stephanie Price made a series of target price adjustments for Canadian technology stocks on Wednesday ahead of third-quarter earnings season.
“Software stocks under coverage were down an average of 8 per cent in Q3, significantly underperforming the TSX (up 12 per cent) amid concerns over AI disruptions and company-specific factors,” she said. “Estimate revisions continued post Q2, with the Street lowering 2025 EBITDA estimates for the companies in our coverage by an average of 7 per cent. We expect another volatile earnings season with Q3 results and expect that earnings misses will see outsized market reactions. We are an average of 120 bps below the Street for Q3, and our top picks include CSU and DSGX.
She raised her targets for these stocks:
- Calian Group Ltd. (CGY-T, “outperformer”) to $62 from $59. The average is $59.57.
- Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T, “outperformer”) to $5,480 from $5,450. Average: $5,485.50.
- Kinaxis Inc. (KXS-T, “neutral”) to $201 from $198. Average: $226.55.
- Open Text Corp. (OTEX-Q/OTEX-T, “neutral”) to US$40 from US$34. Average: US$38.38.
Conversely, she cut her targets for these:
- CGI Inc. (GIB.A-T, “outperformer”) $149 from $180. Average: $161.08.
- Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (CMG-T, “neutral”) to $6.50 from $7.50. Average: $6.75.
- Descartes Systems Group Inc. (DSGX-Q/DSG-T, “outperformer”) to US$126 from US$127. Average: US$116.10.
- Docebo Inc. (DCBO-Q/DCBO-T, “outperformer”) to US$36 from US$37. Average: US$50.56.
- Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-N/TRI-T, “outperformer”) to US$198 from US$201. Average: US$197.88.
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With its portfolio of luxury high-rise apartment buildings in New York City, which he sees as “one of the most attractive multifamily markets in North America,” Desjardins Securities analyst Kyle Stanley thinks GO Residential REIT (GO.U-T) “offers investors an attractive 5.5-per-cent U.S. dollar–denominated cash yield, a largely self-funded operating and capital investment model with elevated FFOPU [funds from operations per unit] growth through 2027 while trading at a significant discount to its public peers and vs private market comps."
He initiated coverage of Toronto-based GO, which completed Canada’s largest real estate investment trust initial public offering at US$410-million in July, with a “buy” recommendation on Wednesday, touting its growth potential.
“We expect GO’s organic growth strategy, which includes (1) realizing the 10-per-cent mark-to-market opportunity; (2) a capital-light value-add program targeting a more than 30-per-cent ROI; and (3) monetizing its premium amenity offering, to drive peer-leading 8–9-per-cent SP revenue growth in 2026,“ Mr. Stanley said. ”The low-capital-intensity portfolio and solid top-line growth outlook translates into a self-funding model which, combined with long-term value upside on the back of the renovation program, offers an organic deleveraging opportunity. We believe this mitigates GO’s elevated leverage profile (47.7 per cent D/GBV) over time—a key risk identified by investors.
“You don’t mess with the Zohran. The potential for social democrat Zohran Mamdani to win the New York City mayoral election on November 4, 2025 has weighed on investor sentiment since the REIT’s IPO. His campaign is focused on affordability, which includes a rent freeze on stabilized apartment units (28 per cent of GO’s portfolio).While it presents a headline risk, we believe the near-term impact to portfolio operations would be limited and, therefore, the recent underperformance offers an attractive buying opportunity.”
The analyst set a target of US$15 per unit. The current average is US$20.22.
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In other analyst actions:
* Jefferies’ Sam Burwell moved his targets for AltaGas Ltd. (ALA-T, “buy”) to $48 from $47, Enbridge Inc. (ENB-T, “buy”) to $73 from $72, Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PPL-T, “hold”) to $54 from $53 and TC Energy Corp. (TRP-T, “hold”) to $73 from $70. The averages are $44.30, $67.98, $59.76 and $74.57, respectively.
* Ahead of the release of its third-quarter results on Nov. 13, ATB Capital Markets’ Chris Murray raised his AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T) target to $118 from $115 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $112.77.
“We are revising our margin expectations for H2/25 to account for seasonality on a regional basis in Engineering Services (ES) and the growth/margin outlook in nuclear, with full-year estimates remaining in line with management’s outlook,” said Mr. Murray. “Our revised Adjusted EBITDA estimate for Q3/25 of $283-million is slightly above consensus and is underpinned by mid-single-digit organic growth and margin expansion in ES combined, strong top-line growth in nuclear, and its first full quarter contribution from recently acquired David Evans. We expect capital allocation, particularly the M&A opportunity set and potential buyback activity, to be a focus with the quarter, as the Company is in a net cash position following the sale of its 407 stake. We expect to receive updates on demand conditions across ATRL core regions/sectors, as well as expectations for margins and nuclear in 2026. While ATRL has outperformed in 2025, we would remain buyers, driven by increasing demand for its nuclear offerings and balance sheet flexibility, which positions the Company for an acceleration in M&A activity and increased returns to shareholders.”
* In separate notes, Mr. Murray cut his AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ-T) target to $30 from $32 with a “sector perform” rating to “to reflect a more conservative view around new vehicle sales and gross margins, given evidence of softening demand conditions, headwinds facing the consumer, and ACQ’s increased focus on cost reductions” and raised his Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T) target to $34 from $33 with an “outperform” rating based on margin revisions. The averages are $34.91 and $36.56, respectively.
* Stifel’s Daryl Young cut his Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T) target to $120 from $130 with a “buy” rating. The average is $141.93.
“Cargojet reports Q3/25 results November 4th after market,” he said. “We are anticipating a weak quarter given the ongoing challenging global freight dynamics, reallocation of trade flows related to the de minimis rule changes, and hangover from the DHL strike. Additionally, based on data from Cirium and FlightAware, it appears that the frequency of Cargojet’s Vancouver-China charter flights did not rebound during Q3/25 (three flights per week). We expect the domestic Canada revenue to remain healthy but to decelerate from recent exceptionally strong levels (it’s still not clear whether H1/25 benefited from pull-forward/safety stock amid tariff uncertainty, but we think it was a factor). As such we have reduced our estimates across H2/25, and trimmed our target price. The global air freight environment remains uncertain, and consumer sentiment is low, but we think the stock is already reflecting much of the headwinds and is poised for recovery with a 12-month view.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho bumped his Fiera Capital Corp. (FSZ-T) target to $6.50 from $6.25 with a “hold” rating. The average is $7.30.
“FSZ reported preliminary September AUM [assets under management] of $166.9-billion, up 4.0 per cent quarter-over-quarter,” he said. “Both public and private markets AUM saw positive net inflows in 3Q, although PineStone likely experienced outflows. AUM also benefited from market appreciation and favourable FX. We would look for comments around new mandate wins, PineStone fund performance and 4Q performance fees expectations.”
* Jefferies’ John Aiken raised his IGM Financial Inc. (IGM-T) target to $54 from $50, keeping a “hold” rating. The average is $56.83.
* Resuming coverage following its recent offering of Topaz Energy shares, Scotia’s Cameron Bean trimmed his Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU-T) target to $80 from $85 with a “sector outperform” rating, calling it “best of the basin in one high-margin package.” The average is $73.83.
“The offering has no impact on our estimates or fundamental views on TPZ,” he said. “However, we do see the strong demand for the offering and increased market liquidity as a positive for the stock. TPZ continues to rank as one of our top picks in the North American natural gas sector and, in our view, represents the best way to take on lower risk AECO exposure for 2026. We remain of the view that the stock offers unparalleled exposure to a compelling suite of revenue streams, including exposure to TOU’s growth plan at no cost; exposure to Clearwater secondary (and beyond) recovery at no cost; attractive infrastructure partnership option; strong exposure to AECO price improvements; best of the basin in one high-margin package. TPZ’s unique business model offers investors the above-described exposure to TOU and the Clearwater, as well as Central Alberta heavy oil (with upside from multilateral drilling), fee land exposure to Southeast Saskatchewan conventional light oil, TVE’s high-return Charlie Lake light oil play, and more than $90-million of steady infrastructure income backed by long-term take-or-pays. We believe this mix of assets provides nearly full-spectrum exposure (only oil sands are missing) to extremely high margin revenues (90-per-cent free cash flow conversion from revenue) from some of the highest-quality assets in Western Canada, with an attractive more than 5-per-cent dividend yield.”
* TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil cut his Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW-T) target to $5.50 from $6 with a “hold” rating. The average is $6.54.
“We remain HOLD rated, and expect Trican to underperform near-term given the Q3/25 miss and reduced outlook for Iron Horse alongside crude oil price weakness. Management’s 2026 outlook remains upbeat, particularly as it relates to the Montney/Duvernay outlook, but we remain cautious, noting recent 2026 E&P CapEx reductions,” he said.
* Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay raised his 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T) target to $23 from $17.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $22.40.
“We are raising our estimates and target price ahead of the release of 3Q25 results on November 3 after market close. In our view, the most recent 2025 guidance update (August 2025) was conservative and a strong 3Q would justify another guidance raise. VNP remains a preferred name, supported by several potential near-term catalysts,” said Mr. Tremblay.