Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While investors reacted negatively to the third-quarter financial report from Shopify Inc. (SHOP-Q, SHOP-T), D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria sees the Ottawa-based e-commerce giant “extending its lead as the platform provider of choice.”
“Shopify exceeded lofty expectations with recent agentic commerce announcements supporting the bull case that Shopify is in an advantageous position to monetize its growing customer base of global enterprises and D2C brands,” he said. “While the initial stock reaction was negative with the broader market down [Tuesday], results this quarter were strong with all key growth metrics ex-MRR above consensus and total CC revenue growth at 30 per cent, an outlier in the current macro.”
TSX-listed shares of Shopify fell 6.5 per cent on Tuesday, joining a broader market sell-off in the global technology sector, despite reporting higher revenue, income and profit for its third quarter, and projected fourth-quarter earnings that exceed analyst expectations for the busy holiday season.
It posted revenue of US$2.8-billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, a 32-per-cent increase from the year before and above analyst consensus; gross profit of US$1.3-billion, up 24 per cent; and operating income of US$343-million, up 21 per cent.
Despite the cautious response, Mr. Luria thinks Shopify’s “growth engine is humming along.”
“Total revenue was $2.844-billion, well above our estimate of $2.741-billion and consensus of $2.758-billion,” he explained. “The primary drivers of better than expected growth this quarter were North America GMV [gross merchandise volume] outperformance relative to internal expectations and increased payments penetration. Year-over-year CC revenue growth was 31 per cent, above management’s guide of mid-to-high twenties with merchant solutions accelerating for the second consecutive quarter to 38 per cent. GMV growth was 32 per cent year-over-year (30 per cent CC) marking the highest level of growth since 2021. Paymentvolumes represented 65 per cent of GMV this quarter, up one point sequentially as adoption continues to ramp globally, aided by expanded partnerships with Paypal and Klarna.”
The analyst also sees the company’s guidance for the current quarter as “conservative” and emphasized its “clean pro forma balance sheet sets the stage for capital allocation optionality.”
“Shopify guided to another quarter of ‘mid-to-high twenties’ revenue growth in 4Q25 (vs. consensus at 24 per cent) which appear prudent, in our view, given the trajectory of GMV growth exiting 3Q and the benefits of holiday spending, recent enterprise logo wins, and a concentrated effort to grow the company’s footprint in EMEA,” he said. “Management’s comments on the macro were also encouraging with tariffs having a negligible impact on merchant’s businesses. Given strong GMV growth, positive new business trends, and increased traction in EMEA we are increasing our total revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 2 per cent and 4 per cent to $11.462-billion and $14.245-billion, respectively.”
“Following the repayment of its convertible debt on November 2nd, Shopify’s proforma balance sheet has no debt and $6-billion in cash and marketable securities. We expect the company to continue pursuing bolt-on acquisitions to obtain incremental capabilities and add AI talent, but over the longer term we expect Shopify to institute a buyback to take advantage of its strong FCF generation capabilities”
Maintaining his “buy” rating for Shopify shares, Mr. Luria raised his price target to US$195 from US$185. The average target on the Street is US$169.07, according to LSEG data.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* ATB Capital Markets’ Martin Toner to $250 (Canadian) from $220 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We are constructive on the Q3 results and above-consensus revenue guide. Shopify continues to perform at a high level, matched only by a handful of large cap tech names. We believe the 17.0-times multiple is supported by GMV and revenue growth and importantly, the expectation that ‘Agentic AI’ will support growth in the medium term. According to management we are still very early in the process of Shopify using AI to create value. We raise our long-term GMV and revenue estimates given operational momentum, driving our PT increase,” said Mr. Toner.
* Scotia’s Kevin Krishnaratne to US$165 from US$150 with a “sector perform” rating.
“SHOP delivered another standout quarter, demonstrating accelerating momentum that reinforces its position as a category leader,” he said. “Our target moves to $165 (prior $150) based on 30 times CY26 GP (was 28.5 times), reflecting increased confidence in the platform’s durable growth and expanding TAM. Management highlighted continued traction in key areas that are still in early innings: Enterprise wins are accelerating and International remains a significant growth engine, with Europe GMV surging 49 per cent year-over-year (42 per cent ex-FX) and 50 per cent of GMV dollar growth ex-FX from markets outside N.A. Meanwhile, SHOP’s push into agentic commerce (OpenAI, Microsoft Copilot, Perplexity) is laying the rails for the next wave of discovery-led shopping. Revenue guide for Q4 of ‘mid- to high twenties’ could prove conservative as SHOP enters its busiest months of the year for retail; and, while the FCF margin guide missed, we view the underlying drivers as temporary. We continue to view SHOP as a core holding as Retail category leader, but remain SP-rated on valuation.”
* TD Cowen’s Daniel Chan to US$159 from US$156 with a “hold” rating.
“Shopify continues to execute well with strong growth. The quarter, however, had little surprises while the Street failed to get better clarity on the AI opportunity. A lack of upside surprise, combined with a lofty valuation, could be weighing on the shares. Fundamentals are likely sound in the near-term, but the risk/reward seems balanced at current valuations,” said Mr. Chan.
* CIBC’s Todd Coupland to US$200 from US$185 with an “outperformer” rating.
* Barclays’ Trevor Young to US$140 from US$120 with an “equalweight” rating
* Moffettnathanson’s Michael Morton to US$122 from US$110 with a “neutral” rating.
* Truist’s Terry Tillman to US$155 from US$150 with a “hold” rating.
* Deutsche Bank’s Bhavin Shah to US$195 from US$185 with a “buy” rating.
* Morgan Stanley’s Keith Weiss to US$192 from US$165 with an “overweight” rating.
* Baird’s Colin Sebastian to US$180 from US$170 with a “buy” rating.
* JP Morgan’s Keith Weiss to US$180 from US$179 with a “buy” rating.
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In a research report released Wednesday titled A Few Bumps But Nothing Broken, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Drew McReynolds sees “a more reasonable risk-return set-up” for Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-Q, TRI-T) following third-quarter results that topped his expectations but guidance that points to a slightly lower consolidated organic revenue growth trajectory.
“As we continue to size up the growth and risk profile of the stock with a focus on agentic AI impacts over the medium-term, we do see a more reasonable risk-return setup following the recent pullback given: (i) the reiteration of 7.5-8.0-per-cent consolidated organic revenue growth in 2026 underpinning the current FTM [forward 12-month] EV/EBITDA multiple of 21.2 times; (ii) ongoing steady execution on the generative and agentic AI roadmap; and (iii) a solid balance sheet and attractive capital return profile,” said the analyst.
“Our focus remains visibility in three key areas over the next 3-5 years: (i) the nature of TAM [total addressable market] evolution as the rate of structural change within what has historically been predictable professional services end-markets begins to accelerate; (ii) the ability for Thomson Reuters to maintain an incumbent number one or number two market share position in its core segments within this TAM as new competitors emerge and competition intensifies; and (iii) the potential for further margin expansion more than 40 per cent (more than 45 per cent for the Big 3) that with revenue growth and operating leverage could translate to accelerated EBITDA growth commensurate with the higher multiple.”
Mr. McReynolds emphasized Thomson Reuters’ 2026 consolidated organic revenue growth outlook remains intact “provided government headwinds do not escalate and improved execution within Corporates is sustained.”
“Management acknowledged near-term revenue headwinds due to lower third-party printing volumes (a transitory 25 basis points growth drag in 2025), softness within the government segment exiting Q3/25 (a 20 basis points growth drag in 2025) and internal execution issues within Corporates resulting in lower than budgeted bookings in Q3/25,” he said.
“Consequently, management expects Q4/25 organic revenue growth of approximately 7.0 per cent, which was below our previous estimate of 8.1 per cent (or up 9.0 per cent for the Big 3 versus our previous estimate of 9.8 per cent). While management acknowledges a lingering degree of uncertainty around the near-term outlook for the government segment (20 per cent of Legal Professional revenues), management remains confident in delivering on the current 2026 consolidated organic revenue growth outlook of 7.5-8.0 per cent driven by positive momentum across the Big 3 segments (supported by October net sales including Corporates), incremental AI-driven traction including recently deployed agentic AI offerings, and easier year-over-year comparables (Reuters News, Corporates).”
To reflect his expectation for a “slightly lower” consolidated organic revenue growth trajectory, Mr. McReynolds cut his target for Thomson Reuters shares to US$177 from US$182, reaffirming a “sector perform” rating. The average is US$185.13.
Elsewhere, citing “bullish growth prospects,” Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige upgraded Thomson Reuters to “buy” from “hold” while reducing his target to US$174 from US$182.
“TRI reported Q3/25 results [Tuesday] morning with adj. EBITDA and EPS better than expected on costs, while revenues were broadly in line. Management indicated that full-year organic revenue growth is likely to come in at the lower end of the 2025 guidance range of 7-7.5 per cent. This is due to headwinds in Global print (25 bps impact) and a few losses on the government front due to efficiency initiatives (20bps). Further, Q4/25 is likely to see somewhat less growth in Corporates due to changes to sales processes. The 2026 margin increase extension (50 to 100bps) was a highlight. We have upgraded the stock to a BUY given upside to growth expectations and solid positioning from a balance sheet perspective.”
He added: “We see the sell-off in the stock (from over US$200 in July) as an opportunity to upgrade, given our view that TRI’s growth prospect remain intact, and could get stronger despite an evolving competitive landscape. While the valuations are by no means inexpensive, we consider the fact that today TRI is a genuine AI play (24 per cent of ACV GenAI and rising) with a clean balance sheet and a commendable track record of execution. We have trimmed our target multiple from 25 times to 24 times, to reflect the sell-off in the space.”
Analysts making target changes include:
* Scotia’s Maher Yaghi to US$189 from US$200 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“TRI’s stock pulled back after what we viewed as an in-line quarter, driven largely by headwinds in their government solutions business, which implies the company will likely land at the lower end of their F25 organic growth range,” said Mr. Yaghi. “This pullback was compounded by ongoing investor fears that AI startups could disrupt TRI’s business model. However, we believe these concerns are misplaced as competition is confined to new expansion areas and not TRI’s core IT data services business, where we believe they have a strong, dependable moat. Nevertheless, to reflect the multiple contractions we have seen across IT and data service stocks due to recent AI disruption fears, we have lowered our EV/EBITDA target multiple from 26 times to 24 times, resulting in a new target price of $189. We still maintain our Sector Outperform rating on the stock on the back of strong fundamentals, continued growth reflected in the F26 guidance, and business execution at TRI.”
* JP Morgan’s Andrew Steinerman to US$160 from US$178 with a “hold” rating.
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National Bank Financial analyst Dan Payne sees NuVista Energy Ltd.’s (NVA-T) agreement to be acquired by Ovintiv Inc. (OVV-N, OVV-T) as a “sensible conclusion” for the Calgary-based company, leading him to move his recommendation to “tender” from “buy” previously “given the premium to the current trading price, as well as the exposure to a highly liquid entity.”
After the bell on Tuesday, the companies announced the cash-and-stock deal valued at $3.8-billion, including debt, which strengthens the U.S. shale producer’s presence in Canada’s Montney basin.
Ovintiv, which already owns 9.6 per cent of NuVista, agreed to pay $18 per share and the total consideration will be made up of 50 per cent cash and 50 per cent Ovintiv common stock. The offer represents a 5.6-per-cent premium to NuVista’s closing price on Tuesday.
“Notably, and to the advantage of shareholders, OVV shares will provide current NVA shareholders with a position in an investment-grade, dividend-paying, diversified, senior producer, with high liquidity and a pro forma EV of approximately $25-billion,” said Mr. Payne in a client note. “The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, and will be voted on at a special meeting, which is currently expected to take place in early Q1/26.
“This conclusion to the business comes after the company initiated a confidential strategic review in August 2025, with the board unanimously approving the outlined proposal.”
He moved his target for NuVista shares to $18 from $20 to reflect the deal. The average is now $18.19.
Elsewhere, others making revisions include:
* TD Cowen’s Aaron Bilkoski to “sell” from “hold” with a $18.04 target, up from $17.
“We believe Ovintiv is offering fair value for NuVista. Although some may comment on the narrow premium to the last trading price, we highlight that NVA’s shares have gained 46 per cent in the past 12 months and outperformed its closest peer (KEL-T) by 41 per cent - in part on speculation NuVista would be acquired. Given this offer is the result of a marketed process, we do not believe a superior competing offer is likely,” he said.
* ATB Capital Markets analyst Patrick O’Rourke also moved NuVista to “tender” from “outperform” with a $17.50 target (unchanged).
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While Victoria-based Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH-Q) reported “strong” third-quarter results and a guidance raise, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Douglas Miehm now sees a “weaker risk/reward profile” for investors, prompting him to downgrade his rating to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
“AUPH shares have doubled over the last 12 months, reflecting stronger than expected Lupkynis sales and a slimmed-down business allowing for improved operating leverage,” he said. “In addition, we believe material value has recently accrued to its Phase I/II development-asset, aritinercept, to which we have now assigned a risk-adjusted value of $680-million ($4.99 per share) following a review of competing APRIL/ BAFF inhibitor drugs. As such, our PT increases from $9/sh to $15/sh. However, as we no longer believe the shares carry an asymmetric risk/reward outlook, we are downgrading AUPH to Sector Perform until we better understand aritinercept’s future development path.”
He raised his target for Aurinia shares to US$15, exceeding the US$13.86 average on the Street, from US$9 previously.
“[We] note key upside risks to our SP rating including Lupkynis outperformance and potential success with aritinercept in multiple indications (we currently model a 20-per-cent POS given its early development stage and lack of disclosed indications),” he added.
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National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev sees the third-quarter financial results from Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI-Q, CIGI-T) displaying “solid execution” and predicts its operating leverage and M&A ambitions are likely to drive “further momentum.”
“Management projected a confident tone on the call, commensurate with strong results,” he noted. “An interesting conversation around Capital Markets also suggested there is an incremental coil spring dynamic when it comes to operating leverage as, according to management, the division has 15 per cent more people vs. prior peak but indexed to 2019 revenue is still 27 per cent below the high watermark, implying additional margin upside for a business that represents 16 per cent of the topline; the Engineering business is scaling rapidly and we could see this business growing by a factor of 2 times over the next 3 to 4 years while Investment Management is likely to turn a margin corner in H2/26E as the company unifies go-to-market strategies and streamlines operations in this important division. We therefore remain very positive on the name, especially in light of further expected moderation in interest rates in the U.S.”
Before the bell on Tuesday, the Toronto-based diversified professional services and investment management company reported gross revenue of US$1.463-billion for the quarter, up 24 per cent year-over-year on 13-per-cent organic growth and exceeding both Mr. Sytchev’s US$1.353-billion estimate and the consensus forecast of US$1.361-billion with gains seen in all its operating segments. Adjusted earnings per share of US$1.64 also topped expectations (US$1.57 and US$1.58, respectively).
Following the company’s conference call with analysts, Mr. Sytchev emphasized the company’s “broad-based momentum” reaffirms his positive investment stance.
“Engineering platform has scaled substantially; growth runway remains significant,” he said. “The Engineering vertical has now grown to 10,000 employees generating about US$1.7-billion in annualized revenue, and organic growth (at up 8 per cent year-to-date and up 6 per cent in Q3/25) remains strong (despite a tougher Q4/25E comp), suggesting full-year results could come in above 2025E segmented guidance. The backlog is solid and momentum has been driven by the infrastructure and transportation vertical (a positive read-through for our consulting coverage). The global engineering consulting industry remains highly fragmented and management sees plenty of ‘white space’ across geographies and end-markets as it seeks to double the size of the platform in the next 3 to 5 years.
“IM [Investment Management] optimization to weigh on near-term margins, but long-term setup is strong. Elevated growth and integration costs are expected to constrain margins over the next few quarters, but should roll off in the back half of next year. Combined with the deployment of an additional US$9-billion in capital, higher fees should also help drive strong operating leverage from that point onwards. As a result, full-year results may come up somewhat short vs. guidance, but with fundraising accelerating (expected to hit the midpoint of the US$5-billion to US$8-billion guidance for 2025E) and plenty of opportunities to grow through M&A we remain confident in the segment’s ability to drive incremental value for CIGI.”
Reiterating his “outperform” recommendation, Mr. Sytchev raised his target for Colliers’ Nasdaq-listed shares to US$181 from US$175, exceeding the average target of US$180.57, after maintaining his 2026 and 2027 forecast given the company’s guidance was left intact.
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* Stifel’s Daryl Young to US$190 from US$195 with a “buy” rating.
“Management maintained its 2025 guidance noting that activity levels remain constructive across all three segments, including IM fundraising which is on track to meet the midpoint of CIGI’s $5-$8-billion target ($4.4-billion raised year-to-date). Management did call out two short-term headwinds related to, 1) expectations that IM costs to restructure/reposition the platform will carry across the next two or three quarters, and 2) Engineering is facing a very tough comp in Q4/25 that will see organic growth step down. These factors are being offset by strength in RES, and big picture, CIGI appears to be on solid footing and poised to play offense, with full M&A pipelines,” said Mr. Young.
* RBC’s Jimmy Shan to US$190 from US$185 with an “outperform” rating.
“Q3 exemplified the positive operating leverage of RES, which performed better than expected owing to leasing. CIGI reaffirmed 2025 guidance. We remain constructive on CIGI. We believe it trades at an attractive multiple relative to peers and while its revenue growth is tracking well (Q3: up 13-per-cent internal, 23-per-cent overall), it is still under-earning in RES and IM, both of which could exceed our estimates next year. Moreover, there appears to be a long runway for acquisitions in Engineering,” said Mr. Shan.
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TD Cowen analyst Derek Lessard sees Boyd Group Services Inc.’s (BYD-T) $1.3-billion acquisition of Joe Hudson’s Collision Center “historic” and reflects its “overall stronger competitive positioning and long-term financial growth algorithm.”
Resuming coverage of Winnipeg-based Boyd following the close of its U.S. initial public offering with gross proceeds of US$897-million earmarked to fund the deal for JHCC, which is the sixth-largest collision platform by location count in North America with 258 locations across 18 U.S. states, Mr. Lessard said he’s “positive” on the deal, viewing the merger as “strong” strategically and broadening Boyd’s geographic reach.
“BYD has successfully built a 1,000+ collision repair organization through a combination of smaller MSO/SSO acquisitions and green/brownfield builds, making the JHCC acquisition a logical ‘next step,’” he said in a client note. “The combined company increases its location count by 25 per cent, solidifying its 3rd place share, and is only 100 locations behind its nearest competitor. The transaction also boosts its revenue share of the US$50 billion addressable collision market by 140 basis points (to 7.6 per cent). Overall, not only does the fragmented market continue to be a source of significant growth, but the increased scale should accelerate it and help deliver more meaningful synergies over time.”
“JHCC locations are concentrated in the fast-growing U.S. Southeast, highlighted by above-average demographic trends including vehicle miles driven and population growth. Higher densification should also support the $35-$45-million targeted synergy capture and solidify key relationships with its insurance partners. Overall, the acquisition improves BYD’s defensive positioning in the Southeast as it is now comparable in size to its nearest competitor in the region.”
The analyst also sees the deal with California-based private equity firm TSG Consumer Partners, which was announced on Oct. 29, as accretive to margins, earnings and valuation.
“Given the densification benefits, better industry trends/demographics, and operational discipline, JHCC disclosed EBITDA margins almost 350 basis points (i.e. 14.4 per cent) higher than legacy BYD,” he said. “We expect the combination of Project 360, increasing scanner & calibration internalization, and best practices to help legacy BYD close that margin performance gap. From a valuation standpoint, BYD is paying 13.3 times (9.3 times including synergies) on a TTM pre-IFRS basis, well below historical trading multiples that have ranged between 15-20 times. Meanwhile, on the day of the acquisition announcement, BYD was trading at 17 times TTM [trailing 12 months].”
After boosting his estimates to reflect the merger and better-than-expected Q3 results, Mr. Lessard raised his target for Boyd shares to $290 from $280, reaffirming a “buy” recommendation. The average on the Street is $269.45.
“BYD’s long-term growth algorithm (+LSD% SSSG [up low single-digits same-store sales growth] from increasing vehicle complexity and scanning/calibration services) remains intact. Given the substantial near-term organic margin expansion opportunities (+80bps/+160bps in 2025/2026) and the improving trends in SSSG, we believe that the shares, currently trading at 14.9 times our NTM [next 12 month] pre-IFRS 16 EBITDA estimate (vs 14.9 times two-year average on consensus), are attractively valued. We would expect the improving outlook, synergy capture, new scale benefits to push up the share price towards our $290 target.”
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* ATB Capital Markets’ Chris Murray to $275 from $270 with an “outperform” rating.
“We are constructive on the resumption of same-store sales growth, margin benefits from Project 360, and the acquisition of JHCC, given the margin profile, opportunity for synergy realization, and added scale in the Southeastern US. We continue to see value in BYD with the completion of its first sizable transaction in several years and evidence of improving demand conditions supportive of the growth outlook heading into 2026,” said Mr. Murray.
* National Bank’s Zachary Evershed raised his target to $285 from $260 with an “outperform” rating.
“In addition to solid accretion lifting our forecasts, JHCC’s 14.4-per-cent Adj. EBITDA margin demonstrates the benefits of greater density, and lends additional confidence in Boyd’s Project 360 profitability targets as we reiterate our Outperform rating. Armed with this enhanced visibility on margin improvements, and noting that a portion of the benefit of the JHCC deal falls outside our forecast window, we elect to raise our target multiple,” said Mr. Evershed.
* RBC’s Sabahat Khan to $291 from $272 with an “outperform” rating.
“The acquisition of Joe Hudson Collision Center adds a quality asset to Boyd’s platform and positions the company well to deliver organic + M&A driven growth amidst an improving industry backdrop. We have confidence in management ability to integrate this asset and surface synergies, which we expect will be in focus for investors over the course of 2026,” said Mr. Khan.
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to $285 from $270 with a “buy” rating.
“BYD paid a compelling 9.3 times EBITDA multiple post synergies while offering double-digit adjusted EPS accretion. BYD’s preliminary 3Q results were also positive with 2–2.5-per-cent SSSG,” said Mr. Ho.
* CIBC’s Krista Friesen to $280 from $270 with an “outperformer” rating.
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In other analyst actions:
* TD Cowen’s Sam Damiani bumped his target for units of CT Real Estate Investment Trust (CRT.UN-T) to $16.50 from $16, keeping a “hold” rating, while Raymond James’ Brad Sturges bumped his target to $17.50 from $17 with a “market perform” rating. The average target is $16.96.
“CRT’s growth remains steady and highly predictable, with AFFO/unit growth set to regain a 3-per-cent pace after slowing to 2per cent in Q3 due to debt refi activity,” said Mr. Damiani. “CRT’s relatively capex-light portfolio and low payout ratio represents a strong self-funding model that supports highly visible asset growth without the need for new equity. We believe the current valuation largely reflects these attributes.”
* TD Cowen’s Tim James reduced his FirstService Corp. (FSV-Q, FSV-T) target to US$211 from US$213 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$202.33.
“A review and implementation of full Q3 financial disclosure reveals limited impact to our target and supports our view of the attractive entry point created by 1) Q3 results that fell slightly shy of expectations and 2) the small downward revision to 2025 guidance which reflects external factors that are expected to give way to stronger growth in 2026. Long-term earnings potential unchanged,” said Mr. James.
“The current valuation no longer reflects our positive view of the business, growth opportunities and risk profile. FSV is trading at 14.2 times/26.3 times forward EBITDA/EPS, a 0.6-times discount/2.5-times premium to comps vs. the trailing 3-year average premium of 4.6 times/7.2 times. Our target assumes modest multiple expansion (17 times/31 times target EBITDA/EPS multiples) and 5-per-cent/11-per-cent EBITDA/EPS growth relative to forward 4-quarters. Expansion anticipated based on future resumption of year-over-year growth in Roofing and Restoration, and mean reversion towards historical multiple relationship with comps.”
* RBC’s Maurice Choy increased his target for Fortis Inc. (FTS-T) to $79 from $72 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: TD Cowen’s John Mould to $79 from $77 with a “buy” rating, Scotia’s Robert Hope to $74 from $73 with a “sector perform” rating and National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $68 from $67 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $72.32.
“Fortis continues to benefit from the favourable energy demand growth trends across its diverse utility footprint, which underpin its improved 7.0-per-cent five-year rate base CAGR [compound annual growth rate], with perhaps more to come including in Arizona to accommodate load growth associated with potential data centers,” said Mr. Choy. “Along with its hallmark balanced funding plan that supports its long-term credit objectives, consistent annual dividend increases (marking 52 consecutive years of increases with its latest 4-per-cent announcement), we anticipate the company’s stock remains a cornerstone regulated utility and/or defensive position across many investor portfolios.”
* CIBC’s Robert Catellier reduced his Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI-T) target by $1 to $26 with an “outperformer” rating. Other changes include: Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $30 from $30.50 with a “strong buy” rating, National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $24 from $25 with a “sector perform” rating and RBC’s Maurice Choy to $26 from $27 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $25.83.
“While the resetting of short-term Marketing expectations may have been disappointing to many investors, we see the company’s attractive and growing dividend (currently yielding 7.0-7.5 per cent) as offering a level of downside protection for the share price,” said Mr. Choy. “As investors turn their attention to 2026 and beyond, particularly on its base Infrastructure business, we anticipate investor focus will be on Gibson Energy’s over $1 billion of identified potential projects (especially timing) to better assess the shape of its 5-per-cent-plus Infrastructure/share CAGR trajectory, which we reckon will be a highlight at its upcoming Investor Day on December 2.”
* In response to “a good quarter, boosted by markets and positive capital updates‚" National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine hiked his target for IA Financial Corp. Inc. (IAG-T) to $178 from $162 with a “sector perform” rating, while TD Cowen’s Mario Mendonca raised his target to $178 from $175 with a “buy” rating. The average is $167.
“Core EPS was higher than expected, supported by stronger investment results. Top-line momentum remains good (particularly Canadian dealer services and WM). We expect dealer services sales to slow as auto sales decline. Growth in high-ROE WM business and excess capital support a 17-per-cent core ROE, but we believe greater buyback activity is needed to support taking the ROE target to 18 per cent," said Mr. Mendonca.
* In a report titled Accelerating top line and a strong bottom line; What more can you ask for?, National Bank’s Jaeme Gloyn increased his Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T) target to $364 from $358 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $319.62.
“We reaffirm our view that IFC remains well positioned to benefit from what we see as favourable conditions across most segments in the P&C Insurance industry through 2026 while continuing to deliver solid profitability in lines facing modestly increasing premium growth headwinds. IFC merits a premium valuation given the track record of consistent execution to deliver 10-per-cent EPS growth and to outperform its competitors on ROE. Moreover, with a debt to total capital ratio of just 18 per cent, IFC is well positioned to execute accretive acquisitions, or as we learned this quarter, materially ramp up the buyback. Thus, we maintained our target valuation multiple,” said Mr. Gloyn.
* Stifel’s Martin Landry reduced his target for shares of Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. (PET-T) to $37 from $40, maintaining a “buy” rating. Others making changes include: TD Cowen’s Michael Van Aelst to $40 from $44 with a “buy” rating, Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $38 from $41 with a “buy” rating, RBC’s Irene Nattel to $40 from $43 with an “outperform” rating, CIBC’s Mark Petrie to $36 from $42 with an “outperformer” rating, and National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $37 from $42 with an “outperform” rating. The average is currently $38.91.
“Pet Valu’s shares were under pressure [Tuesday], down 14 per cent, as management discussed a more tepid growth environment than investors expected,“ he said. ”Expectations were for same-store-sales growth to continue to recover from depressed levels reported in 2024 and accelerate in H2/25 to the 3-4-per-cent level. However, management’s 2025 guidance suggests that same-store-sales may grow by 2 per cent in Q4/25. In addition, management commented that this tepid growth, which is below historical industry growth rates of 4-6 per cent, could spill into 2026. As a result, we revised our expectations downward slightly for Q4/25 and for 2026. The share price reaction of down 14 per cent looks overdone in relation to the 4-per-cent decrease in our EPS estimate for 2026. This brings valuation down to 16.5 times forward earnings, lower than the 4-year average of 19 times. With a healthy balance sheet, FCF accelerating and valuation lower than historical levels, we suggest that investors take advantage of the recent price weakness.”
* Scotia’s Phil Hardie trimmed his target for Propel Holdings Inc. (PRL-T) to $38 from $40 with a “sector outperform” rating, while Raymond James’ Stephen Boland dropped his target to $35 from $42 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $44.98.
“Despite loan balances reaching new record highs, earnings momentum slowed in the quarter as management favored a disciplined approach against a dynamic macroeconomic backdrop. We expect Propel’s weaker than expected third quarter results and reduced year-end loan balance targets to be met with some disappointment by investors. That said, we think the choice to curb near-term growth in favor of supporting loan portfolio quality is the correct move given the pressures impacting Propel’s target borrower population in the U.S. With the stock trading well-off its highs, we think its discounted valuation already reflects a high degree of risk being priced into the stock,” said Mr. Hardie.
* Seeing it “expanding with vigour,” National Bank’s Dan Payne pushed his target for Spartan Delta Corp. (SDE-T) to $7.50 from $7 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: ATB Capital Markets’ Patrick O’Rourke to $7 from $6 with a “sector perform” rating, Ventum Financial’s Adam Gill to $7 from $6 with a “buy” rating and TD Cowen’s Aaron Bilkoski to $7.50 from $7 with a “buy” rating.. The average is $6.80.
“Overall, we see the quarter as a strong positive for the stock with another funds flow beat, and continually strong results in the Duvernay, along with a growth land position,” said Mr. Gill.
* TD Cowen’s Menno Hulshof raised his Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T) target to $71 from $67 with a “buy” rating. The average is $64.28.
* RBC’s Paul Treiber cut his target for Topicus.com Inc. (TOI-X) to $190 from $220 with an “outperform” rating, while Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil reduced his target to $190 from $195 with a “buy” rating. The average is $199.50.
“TOI’s stock has significantly underperformed in recent weeks due to fears of AI disruption and Mark Leonard’s resignation from CSU. The company delivered revenue growth acceleration in 3Q thanks to the Cipal Schaubroeck acquisition and significant year-to-date capital deployment. We believe TOI’s higher capital deployments contributed to the stock’s outperformance vs CSU and LMN this year,” said Mr. Dubreuil.
* Scotia’s Jonathan Goldman increased his Wajax Corp. (WJX-T) target to $27 from $26, which is the current average, with a “sector perform” rating.
“If not for the tough tape, shares would have been up more in our view (still nice outperformance vs. peers though) following the sizeable beat and continued momentum on internal initiatives (e.g., pricing, utilization, costs),” said Mr. Goldman. “We raised our 2025/2026 estimates by 3 per cent/6 per cent on the back of the beat and higher gross margin assumptions in both years. Weak end-market demand is getting most of the attention, but management has demonstrated a willingness to tackle cost and efficiency more so than in previous cycles. 3Q EBITDA/EPS were up 20 per cent/70 per cent year-over-year despite a flat top-line.”
“We see several catalysts for valuation to reflate, but timing may still be a few quarters out, namely: (1) a string of consistent results (the company is well on its way with the last three quarters beating on aggregate by 9 per cent); (2) macro recovery, particularly in CAD manufacturing (new budget might help), which would enable recent gross margin/SG&A initiatives to drive significant operating leverage; and (3) deleveraging/restart of M&A, namely an ERS roll-up.”
* Ventum Financial’s Amr Ezzat hiked his 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T) target to a Street high of $26 from $21.50 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Raymond James’ Michael Glen to $26 from $24 with an “outperform” rating, Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay to $24.50 from $23 with a “buy” rating and National Bank’s Michael Doumet to $25 from $21 with an “outperform” rating.. The average is $22.90.
“5N Plus delivered another blockbuster quarter, reinforcing its position as one of the most strategically entrenched materials suppliers in the clean energy and solar ecosystems,” said Mr. Ezzat. “Q3 EBITDA of $29.1-million beat our forecast by $12-million and Street by $11-million, driven by outsized margins in both Specialty Semiconductors and Performance Materials. Management raised full-year guidance to $85–90-million (from $65–70-million), resetting expectations materially above Street’s pre-print view of $80-million. Despite the beat-and-raise, shares remain underappreciated, likely due to an implied Q4 guidance step-down, which management attributed to pulled-forward OpEx and seasonal normalization in bismuth. We view this as prudent de-risking ahead of another strong year in 2026. Overall, we remain constructive on the long-term setup. Secular tailwinds in solar and space are intact, photon counting in medical imaging continues to gain traction, and the backlog remains at peak levels.”