Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Desjardins Securities analyst Doug Young raised his price targets on most of the Canadian banks as he looked ahead to the upcoming earnings season. He also upgraded his rating on one - National Bank, moving to a “buy” from a “hold”.
The banks have had a very strong year so far, with the Big Six up 28 per cent year to date. While that may set the bar high for the sector for further gains, Mr. Young sees a general uptrend continuing as the banks’ attention shifts to the outlook for next year.
“In fact, some banks are already preparing: BNS, TD and EQB are expected to take restructuring charges this quarter,” Mr. Young said in a research note. “BMO will provide an update on its ROE improvement journey. RY will show progress against investor day targets. EQB is widely expected to report a “kitchen sink” quarter. Will this set EQB up for success in FY26? We think so. And we are upgrading NA to Buy from Hold, as we see benefits from the CWB integration (cost and revenue synergies), a strong capital position, and room for upward estimate revisions if management can hit its cash ROE objective in FY27."
Mr. Young is bullish on the sector overall, continuing to recommend an overweight position.
CIBC’s (CM-T) price target went to $126 from $113; Royal Bank of Canada’s (RY-T) target went to $218 from $214; TD Bank’s (TD-T) target went to $120 from $116; National Bank’s (NA-T) target went to $167 from $149; Bank of Nova Scotia’s (BNS-T) target went to $95 from $85; and Bank of Montreal’s (BMO-T) target went to $177 from $165.
Laurentian Bank’s (LB-T) target held steady, at $30, while EQB Inc.’s (EQB-T) target was lowered to $100 from $103.
For the Big 6 banks specifically, he outlined seven key themes. Verbatim they were:
- “We forecast an average ~21% yoy increase in cash EPS for the Big 6, with adjusted pre-tax, pre-provision (PTPP) earnings expected to grow 18% yoy. Capital markets and wealth are helping.
- We expect: stable NIMs sequentially, mid-single-digit loan growth (or low single digits excluding NA), robust non-interest revenues due to strong equity markets, expense growth within guidance ranges excluding FX and variable comp, with positive operating leverage for all Big 6 banks.
- We are not expecting a material improvement in PCLs, and are forecasting an average PCL rate of 43bps, up 3bps qoq. But the focus will be all about the credit outlook for FY26.
- We expect an average CET1 ratio of 13.6% for the Big 6, well above operating targets of 12.5–13.0%. We expect banks to remain active on buybacks, but excess capital is increasingly a drag on ROE.
- We are upgrading NA to Buy from Hold. First, we should learn more about the capital benefits from migrating CWB’s models to AIRB shortly. Second, we believe management will outline a clear roadmap to restore the bank’s ROE to industry leading again. Third, we should get a clearer picture on the CWB expense and potential revenue synergies, with 4Q FY25 results.
- No surprise, this quarter is now looking like a “kitchen sink” one for EQB. The bank already announced a restructuring, and we believe it also needs to properly address investor concerns around credit. We view EQB as a FY26 story and view its current valuation as attractive (1.1x P/BV), though patience is needed. Its scarcity value in the SMID financial space also helps.
Our pecking order is CM, RY, TD and NA, followed by EQB in the small-cap space."
RBC analyst Darko Mihelic also published an earnings preview for the Canadian banks Wednesday which had him tweaking earnings estimates but issuing no rating changes.
“We lower our Q4/25 stage 3 (impaired) provision for credit loss (PCL) ratio assumptions, increase our core net interest margin (NIM) estimates, lower our capital markets forecasts on average and make other modest individual bank adjustments. We continue to expect muted loan growth but expect tractors and deposit mix shifts to provide upside to core NIMs. We believe all large Canadian banks we cover (except NA) can report results stronger than the most recent consensus view. In our view, BMO and BNS are the most likely large Canadian banks we cover to provide better than expected 2026 PCL ratio guidance during Q4/25 reporting, which could result in positive core EPS revisions,” Mr. Mihelic said.
For more on Mr. Mihelic’s views, including which banks he sees raising dividends in the fourth quarter, see today’s Top Links from Scott Barlow.
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Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen downgraded Titanium Transportation Group Inc. (TTNM-T) to “outperform” from “strong buy”, citing persistent macro uncertainty across the transportation sector prompted by tariffs. His price target on the stock was also cut to $2.25 from $2.75. The average analyst price target is $3.11, according to LSEG data.
Titanium Transportation reported third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $8.9 million, missing Street estimates that were closer to $10 million. Revenues and margins were lower than expected in the company’s logistics segment.
The company introduced fourth quarter guidance that projected revenues modestly below Street expectations.
“We have elected to maintain a constructive rating based upon: 1) TTNM’s resilient operating performance through the cycle; 2) early signs of market stabilization; & 3) the company’s compelling valuation (4.1x FY25 EBITDA, 0.7x Price/Book),” Mr. Hansen said in a note to clients.
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National Bank analyst Adam Shine raised his price target on Quebecor Inc. (QBR-B-T) and maintained an “outperform” rating as he dug deeper into recent third quarter results.
His target went to C$54 from C$49 as he commented that Quebecor continues to execute well, control capital expenditures and drive strong free cash flow.
“QBR reported its 3Q on Nov. 6 and delivered upside to consensus EBITDA expectations due to Telecom and Media,“ Mr. Shine said in a note to clients. ”The latter’s beat was helped by small one-timers, but mostly driven by belated traction from restructuring savings. In Telecom, wireless market share gains continue and more focus in recent months has been placed on price discipline such that QBR’s ARPU decline has not only seen a better than expected rate of discipline but also q/q increases over the past two quarters. While we think there was some upside to our wireless EBITDA forecast (QBR stopped providing this disclosure with its 3Q24), not to be ignored was the fact that Internet revs increased slightly and beat the Street by +2%. This was the first y/y growth in Internet revs since 1Q24 after a drop of -4.8% in 3Q24 which likely served as a wake-up call for management. After having pursued loading with promotions in the face of aggressive Bell fibre offers which served to undermine Internet ARPU and Cable margin, we saw more discipline from VDO in Quebec over past year as it found a better balance between the quest for subscribers and margins. In 3Q, QBR added Internet subscribers for the first time this year and though net adds were just -1.3K less than last year (-11%), Internet ARPU grew, and Internet revs rose +1%. Importantly, Internet margin expanded which, along with cost efficiencies, likely helped improve Cable’s margin. Fizz in Quebec and Freedom in Ontario helped drive the loading amid more bundling success.”
The average analyst price target on Quebecor is C$51.17.
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Canaccord Genuity analyst Yuri Lynk cut his price target on Mattr Corp. (MATR-T) to C$14 from C$17 but maintained a “buy” rating.
Mr. Lynk commented that “the macro continues to move away from Mattr.”
“Tariffs, copper and otherwise, introduce heightened uncertainty for Q4/2025 and beyond. Weak crude oil prices are driving domestic well completions lower. Automotive is weak, especially EVs due, in part, to expiring government rebates. The one near-term bright spot is the outlook for retail fuel containment tanks where we are entering a significant replacement cycle. All of this weighs on our 2026 and 2027 estimates,” Mr. Lynk said in a note to clients.
So why is he recommending investors purchase the stock? He says it’s because it’s fairly inexpensive.
“Trading at 6.3x EV/EBITDA (2026E; after rents), it’s at worst fairly valued. Our perspective is that our 2026 revenue and margin estimates are dramatically below the company’s trend potential.”
The company is set to release third quarter results after markets close Wednesday.
The average analyst price target is C$12.39.
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In other analyst actions:
Martinrea International Inc. (MRE-T): BMO raises target price to C$11 from C$9. “While visibility into Q4 financial performance is low, MRE appears on track to expand full-year operating margins and meet the high-end of its 2025 free cash flow guidance. Amid a volatile trade policy environment, continued execution in raising the margin performance and resuming capital returns could prove to be the next catalysts,” said BMO analyst Étienne Ricard.
Power Corporation of Canada (POW-T): BMO raises target price to C$71 from C$60. BMO analyst Tom MacKinnon said the move reflected “updated GWO/IGM target prices and reduced NAV discount (to 15% from 16%, better than 24% average since February 2020 reorg reflecting continued elevated POW share buyback activity).”
Lundin Gold Inc. (LUG-T): Canaccord Genuity raises target price to C$108 from C$103. The move follows the release of Lundin’s third quarter results and Canaccord continues to rate the stock as a “hold.” Analyst Jeremy Hoy said: “Q3 marked another solid quarter for LUG, extending the company’s strong track record of execution at its high-grade underground Fruta del Norte mine in Ecuador’s Zamora-Chinchipe province. In our view, the company remains on pace to meet full-year production guidance, continuing a streak of consistent delivery since operations began in 2019.
Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (CAR-UN-T): Raymond James cuts target price to C$45 from C$49.5. The company reported third quarter funds from operations that were slightly below Street expectations.
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (CMG-T): BMO cuts target price to C$6 from C$7.
Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T): RBC raises target price to C$94 from C$85
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM-T): Peel Hunt raises price target to C$165 from C$162
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD-Q): Several analysts raised their price targets, including Evercore ISI going to US$283 from US$270. The average target is now US$268.60.