Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.’s (ATD-T) improving operating metrics are likely to “bring hope” to investors, according to Stifel analyst Martin Landry, who emphasizes retail gains made south of the border.
“Couche-Tard delivered good Q2FY26 results ahead of expectations,” he said. “U.S. merchandise sales continued their recovery supported by the company’s successful food program, a well-executed nicotine pouch promotion and sustained strength in energy drinks sales. Same-store-sales growth of 1.2 per cent year-over-year reassured investors that the days of declines are behind us and that the recovery is firmly underway. Merchandise margins surprised to the upside in all three regions with U.S. merchandise margins reaching their second-highest level in the last 10 years. CoucheTard appears to have several levers to further enhance merchandise margins.
“After a brief period of stagnation following Q2FY26, momentum has returned as the U.S. government shutdown concluded. Q2FY26 earnings should encourage investors to revisit Couche-Tard, and we expect the shares to perform well in the coming six to twelve months. The next catalyst could be an M&A announcement or the company’s business strategy update on February 11, 2026.”
Shares of the Laval, Que.-based convenience-store operator jumped 4.9 per cent on Wednesday after it reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share of 78 cents, a gain of 5 per cent year-over-year and exceeded both Mr. Landry’s 74-cent estimate and the consensus projection of 75 cents. He attributed the beat to higher-than-expected merchandise margins across all regions and higher merchandise same-store-sales.
“This is only the second time in nine quarters that Couche-Tard reports an adjusted EPS growth year-over-year, and should be welcomed by investors,” the analyst said. “U.S. merchandise same-store-sales have continued their recovery and increased 1.2 per cent year-over-year, slightly higher than our expectations of 1 per cent and an acceleration from Q1FY26 growth of 0.4 per cent. This performance is better than 7-Eleven which reported an increase of approximately 0 per cent year-over-year for a similar period.”
Mr. Landry said the results support his thesis that “Couche-Tard’s recovery in EPS and U.S. merchandise is ongoing.”
“Post quarter-end trends. Couche-Tard’s U.S. merchandise same-store-sales appeared to be flat year-over-year at the beginning of Q3FY26, coinciding with the U.S. Government shutdown,” he added. “When the U.S. Government shutdown ended, Couche-Tard saw a return to growth in merchandise same-store-sales at a pace similar to Q2/26 levels. In addition, management subtly pointed to an acceleration of the growth pace recently. Throughout Q2/26, there was a consistent growth pattern, but a significant dispersion in performance existed across regions. The Midwest experienced strong same-store-sale growth, up 5.3 per cent year-over-year, whereas slightly negative same store-sale growth was observed in other southern states.”
In a client note, Mr. Landry said the company’s failed to pursuit to acquire Japan’s Seven & I Holdings has “created a pent-up demand” for M&A activity with management saying that deal flow is “very active”.
Couche-Tard to expand meal-bundle promotions as it plots next takeover
“With only 5-6 per cent of the total industry locations, Couche-Tard has a long growth runway to consolidate the U.S. convenience store industry in our view,” he added. “We expect that some acquisitions could be announced in the coming quarters.”
“Investor day expected on February 11, 2026. Couche-Tard is expected to hold a business strategy update on February 11, 2026, where management will discuss long-term growth drivers as well as future industry dynamics and how it impacts both ATD and its stakeholders. We believe one scenario that may play out is the company will reduce its long-term growth target of $10 billion in EBITDA by FY28. This shouldn’t be a surprise for investors considering consensus estimates stand at $7.1 billion in EBITDA in FY28, already significantly below the company’s target.”
Reaffirming his “buy” recommendation for Couche-Tard shares, Mr. Landry raised his target by $3 to $88, touting an “appealing” valuation. The average target on the Street is $84.36, according to LSEG data.
“ATD’s shares trade at 16 times forward earnings, roughly in-line with the 10-year average, while Canadian peers, such as grocers and dollar stores trade at a premium to their historical averages. ATD has a better balance sheet than historically with a leverage of 2 times debt/EBITDA, which provides flexibility to make further M&A transactions or return capital to shareholders,” said Mr. Landry.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target adjustments include:
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $86 from $83 with an “outperform” rating.
“The key for ATD is to deliver sustained growth via organic drivers and complementary acquisitions, in addition to share repurchases,” said Mr. Shreedhar. “We believe EPS growth is beginning to inflect positively. Our analysis of ATD’s historical share price performance overwhelmingly (approximately 98 per cent of instances) suggests that returns have been positive one year out (average return of 22 per cent) when shares were bought at the current valuation of 16-17 times NTM [next 12-month] P/E.”
* Scotia’s John Zamparo to $88 from $84 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“Several important components of ATD’s business are strong or improving, and we continue to believe this isn’t adequately reflected in the stock. US SSS has turned a corner, vendor rebates should last through C26, nicotine is now a growth business, fuel margins are stable or growing, the buyback is running at full speed, and M&A potential is ever-present. We suspect the mid-Feb strategic update likely provides a broad growth algo rather than specific targets; if so this is probably positively received, and we see no risk to removal of the $10-billion EBITDA goal,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $85 from $80 with a “buy” rating.
“Against a challenging consumer backdrop, ATD’s merch SSSG is improving, supported by Meal Deals, loyalty program expansion, data analytics, personalization etc. We believe a return to 2–3 per cent is needed for sentiment to improve and is a key driver of 12–13-per-cent EPS growth in FY27. ATD will host a strategy update on February 11, 2026. If macro challenges ease next year, greater visibility on sustainable earnings growth could be a potential catalyst. The balance sheet remains solid with >US$10b of M&A capacity,” said Mr. Li.
* TD Cowen’s Michael Van Aelst to $90 from $89 with a “buy” rating.
“Conference call comments sounded optimistic. Fuel margin comps now get easier and, if pace of recent weeks persists, Q3 US SSSG could exceed Q2 even with earlier softness tied to the government shutdown,” said Mr. Van Aelst. “Investments to accelerate foodservice growth seen keeping opex growth elevated (trimming our forecasts), but EPS growth and Feb 11/26 strategic update could boost valuation back up to historical averages, or above.”
=====
While acknowledging the earnings dilution expected from H&R Real Estate Investment Trust’s (HR.UN-T) $1.5-billion asset sales, National Bank Financial analyst Matt Kornack sees the move as “a step in the right direction for simplifying the business.”
The Toronto-based REIT’s units rose 2.5 per cent on Tuesday following the premarket announcement of deals with multiple buyers to sell retail and office properties in Canada and the United States. The assets being sold include H&R’s 33.1-per-cent stake in Echo Realty LP’s U.S. retail portfolio, 27 Canadian retail properties, the Hess Tower office property in Houston, a downtown Toronto office property and another in the Greater Toronto Area.
The divestitures come following an announcement earlier in the month that a strategic review concluded without finding a buyer for H&R, which is one of the country’s largest property owners.
Mr. Kornack said the property sales do not “materially” move his net asset value assumption for the REIT, “which is a positive considering the real upside to our numbers is likely in the industrial and apartment portfolio.”
“H&R announced the sale of $1.5-billion in assets, most were previously held for sale, with the big variance being the sale of the REIT’s 1/3 stake in ECHO, something that had been long speculated but where there appeared to be little progress this year,” he said. “The other variances were minor / timing related as the REIT continues to have 310-330 Front and 25 Sheppard under negotiation for sale and sold a smaller suburban office property in the GTA that wasn’t in HFS but likely didn’t move the dial. Harder to know what the residual $1.1-billion of properties will entail as we had originally thought the industrial portfolio made sense but that math no longer works.
“De-leveraging with the potential for a small buyback program. The bulk of the proceeds of the sales will go to debt repayment. Of the $1.5-billion, $0.4-million relates to debt on the ECHO portfolio; the REIT can fully repay its credit facilities and has room for $200-million in unit buybacks. The result is significant de-leveraging from a debt/assets basis but only a slight reduction in net debt/EBITDA given high sale cap rates. The expectation is that incremental sales may trigger a special distribution as management noted they expect to maintain pro forma leverage levels.”
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for H&R, Mr. Kornack increased his target to $10.75 from $10.50, citing "the benefits of streamlining of the portfolio as well as the sale of more challenged assets from a valuation standpoint." The average is currently $12.25.
"The potential for upside to the residual portfolio is higher as are the prospects for its eventual sale," he noted.
Elsewhere, Scotia’s Mario Saric cut his target to $12 from $12.50 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Overall, the unit price response seems reasonable given the above (i.e., still work to do on $2.6-billion) and our estimated 2026 implied Lantower cap of 6.6 per cent is 30 basis point higher than U.S. peer implied caps given weak U.S. Sunbelt sentiment, but again understandable given H&R execution risk. Conversely, H&R is also now performing in line with the CAD REIT sector post February and July 3rd, which we think = future relative unit price upside on execution (incl. $200-million NCIB),” said Mr. Saric.
=====
National Bank Financial‘s Mohamed Sidibé said a recent visit to Montage Gold Corp.‘s (MAU-T) Koné project in Côte d’Ivoire was “an impressive showing of a company performing strongly across exploration, development and operational readiness.”
“Koné construction is advancing ahead of schedule for key components, with the team demonstrating strong execution and cost discipline,” he explained. “The oxide circuit is progressing rapidly, potentially allowing first gold pour in Q4/26, in line with our model. This pace is supported by a capable team and a well-structured owner-construction model, providing flexibility and controlling upfront mining capital. The project remains on budget, with over 58 per cent of capex committed as of November. Exploration opportunities are abundant and backed by a quality team with in-country experience.”
The mining equity analyst raised his net asset value assumption for the Vancouver-based company to “reflect the impressive progress made to date and reflect some of the strong exploration upside potential that exists within Montage.”
“We come back positive and impressed by the progress made to date on the construction front, more confident about the exploration upside across the land package, the capex figures and disciplined costs management showcased and management in-country knowledge,“ said Mr. Sidibé. ”Additionally, beyond the potential for first gold to be achieved in Q4/26 from the oxide circuit (Q2/27 remains the target for the hard comminution circuit) it is clear that MAU has multiple levers in its toolbox to further optimize its Koné project once operational which have not been reflected in our model."
“The potential to drive meaningful upside on the throughput front with the process plant designed to potentially deliver above the 11 mln tpa plan. This is very similar to what has been achieved at most of EDV’s operations in the past and given the overlap in both management team and their experience in mine building and operations, we view this as likely. Running our model at 13 mln tpa would add about 10 per cent to our NAV and improve FCF by 12 per cent over the LOM [life of mine].”
Emphasizing is construction is “advancing at an impressive pace and remains within budget,” Mr. Sidibé raised his Street-high target for Montage shares to $9.50 from $8.75, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average target is $7.83.
“While MAU may be trading at a NAV multiple higher than peer developers, with production four to five quarters away, the company trades at a discount to African Peers on an EV/EBITDA 2027 basis,” he noted.
Elsewhere, Raymond James’ Craig Stanley raised his target to $9 from $7.50 with an “outperform” rating.
“We attended a site visit last week and were impressed by the amount of construction, including the sizer for the oxide circuit already installed,” said Mr. Stanley.
“Management reiterated the project is on budget and on track for first gold in 2Q27, however this is looking very conservative, and we now model production commencing in 1Q27.”
=====
Calling it a “proven mine builder with a repeatable growth model” and seeing it “poised for [a] next phase of growth,” Stifel analyst Ralph Profiti initiated coverage of G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN-T) with a “buy” recommendation.
“G Mining Ventures (GMIN) is poised to capitalize on the value-uplift from its self-perform business model that leverages strong operating capabilities with proven mine building expertise and a track record of accretive financing and M&A,” he said. “GMIN’s portfolio of long-life, low-cost assets with significant exploration upside potential provides a platform for growth into the next intermediate precious metals producer with gold production forecasted to more than double to 500Koz/year by 2028 anchored by the Tocantinzinho (TZ) Mine in Brazil and development of the Oko West Project in Guyana, with valuation and future growth potential supported by the Gurupi Project in Brazil – all with significant exploration upside potential and located in mining-friendly jurisdictions.
" Upcoming key re-rating catalysts include the 10km drilling Program at Gurupi (results expected H2/25), greenfield and brownfield exploration and drilling at TZ, Oko West and Gurupi, and first gold at Oko West in H2/27."
Touting “compelling” a re-rating opportunity with “multiple near-term catalysts,” Mr. Profiti set a Street-high target of $50 per share, exceeding the $38.93 average.
“We believe well-capitalized, growth-oriented, mid-tier (0.1-0.5Moz/yr) and intermediate (0.5-2.0Moz/yr) gold producers remain the best positioned for upside leverage to the gold price, upside to reserves life, exploration catalysts and M&A re-rating potential,” he noted.
=====
Citing what he sees as a "discounted valuation on both a historical and relative basis," National Bank Financial analyst Travis Wood said Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP-T) is his “high conviction top idea” across his large-cap energy coverage universe.
“We forecast nearly $5.0-billion of free cash flow (post dividend) over the next five years, supporting an average annual FCF yield of 9 per cent over the same period, providing flexibility to reduce debt and remain active across the NCIB,” he said. “In our view, the compelling valuation is an opportunity to capture upside to robust economics out of the Montney and Duvernay, with underappreciated upside to natural gas growth out of Lator and eventually Resthaven.
“Despite the expected growth from Lator next year, we believe the market is mispricing the low risk upside related to the asset. As an example, the Attachie ramp resulted in ARC Resources outperforming the market by nearly 20 per cent the year leading into the on-stream date, resulting in multiple expansion to 5.5 times, from 3.5 times, as the market gained appreciation for the production and cash flow expansion generated by that asset.”
In a research report released Wednesday, Mr. Wood highlighted what he sees as “significant operational momentum across the unconventional portfolio, underscored by a focus on continuous improvement while leveraging off renewed scale and processing opportunities.”
“In our view, Whitecap provides investors with significant growth optionality across the portfolio, supported by capital allocation decisions across oil, gas and liquids-rich opportunities. With Lator set to add 40 mboe/d later next year, we would also point to robust inventory across Resthaven, Kaybob Duvernay, Gold Creek and Karr,” he added.
Seeing Whitecap “primed for multiple expansion and expect the stock will soon reflect a valuation closer to 5.0 times ([his] target multiple) as compared to the current 4.0 times,” Mr. Wood reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and $15 target, exceeding the $13.86 average on the Street.
“The continued operational success and momentum through a beat and raise style set up, supported by a culture of continuous improvement against what we see as a discounted and disconnected valuation presents an opportunity to gain access to high margin production and expanding natural gas exposure.” he said. “Whitecap is our #1 top pick across our large cap coverage for many reasons, but underscored by the current valuation that has it trading at 2026 estimated EV/DACF multiple of 4.0 times on a 7.8-per-cent FCF yield (vs. peers at 5.0 times and 7.5 per cent).”
=====
In other analyst actions:
* Seeing a more balanced risk-reward proposition for investors following a rally that has seen its shares rise almost 60 per cent thus far in 2025, Deutsche Bank’s Liam Fitzpatrick downgraded First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T) to “hold” from “buy” and cut his target by $2 to $33 per share in a 2026 outlook for the copper sector. He pointed to continued uncertainty over the restart of its Cobre Panama mine, predicting a phased restart could begin in the second half of 2026. The average target is $35.23.
* Ahead of the Dec. 4 release of its third-quarter results, CIBC World Markets’ Mark Petrie raised his BRP Inc. (DOO-T) target to $115 from $100 with an “outperformer” rating. The average is $104.11.
“Our Q3 estimates are tweaked, but our EPS estimate of $1.43 is unchanged, and adjustments to our Q4 and F27 estimates are mainly driven by BRP’s debt refinancing. We also increase our target multiple (to 18 times, was 16 times) on increased confidence in the stabilization of the powersports demand environment and BRP’s medium-term earnings and market share recovery,” said Mr. Petrie.
* Atrium Research’s Ben Pirie initiated coverage of Nevada King Gold Corp. (NKG-X) with a “buy” rating and 40-cent target. The average is 65 cents.
“Nevada King Gold Corp. is a precious metals exploration and development company focused on the advancement of its Atlanta Project in Nevada,” he said. “Following extensive drill programs since 2020, NKG increased Atlanta’s high-grade oxide gold resource to 1.12Moz in June. The Company is now conducting drill programs on numerous satellite targets expected to expand Atlanta’s resource as the project advances. To catch readers’ attention, NKG has reported some of the best highlight drill intercepts in Nevada, having intersected 11.6 g/t Au over 108m and 6.6 g/t Au over 82m, highlighting a high-grade core to the deposit. NKG is poised to outperform as it continues exploring while advancing Atlanta towards an inaugural PEA in 2026.”
* Stifel’s Justin Keywood trimmed his Kneat.com Inc. (KSI-T) target to $6.50, below the $6.67 average, from $7.50 with a “buy” rating.
“We are refining our 2026 estimates and rolling out 2027, following discussions with management that suggest a less Opex-intensive NTM [next 12 months], compared to the relatively investment-heavy 2025. As a result, we increase 2026 adj. EBITDA forecasts with neutral Levered FCF on still robust sales growth (20-25 per cent). While we chalk up recent share weakness to the macro tech selloff, the stock has been relatively rangebound LTM [last 12 months], given a number of estimate recalibrations on quarterly underperformance. Nevertheless, KSI is unique in serving top global Pharma customers and its Life Science SaaS model supports premium valuation, which we believe makes 4.8 times 2026 estimated EV/Sales still very reasonable, while balance sheet strength also provides us comfort. While we are reducing our target to $6.50 (from $7.50) based on our revised 6.0x 2027E sales multiple, with shares down $2 since October (52-wk lows), we believe execution over the coming quarters should resume upward movement in the stock,” said Mr. Keywood.