Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Heading into the new year, Desjardins Securities analyst Jerome Dubreuil thinks it is “refreshing to see a few months of relative pricing discipline in the Canadian telecom space after many quarters of aggressive promotions.”
“As we look to 2026, we expect ARPU [average revenue per user] improvements but note that some wireless promotions have recently migrated to add-a-line discounts and that TPIA/ FWA [third party internet access and fixed wireless access] should lead to growing competition from out-of-footprint operators in wireline,” he said.
. In our view, the market does not sufficiently appreciate the brighter future for FTTH operators vs cable—our telecom pecking order reflects this view. In IT services, software and other tech, our top pick is LMN as we believe the company is set for a year of growth re-acceleration given we see no fundamental change in its business despite the depressed share price. The AI disruption theme remains alive and well, but model adaptability and resilient financials (which we expect) should provide support to these stocks."
In a client report released Wednesday, Mr. Dubreuil downgraded Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) to a “hold” rating from “buy” previously with a $57 target (unchanged). The average on the Street is $58.07.
“Based on sports assets valuation and the rest of the business, we estimate that approximately 50–90 per cent of the value of sports assets is already reflected in RCI’s share price — above the typical 50-per-cent discount to PMV for publicly traded sports assets. With the expected acquisition of Kilmer Group’s 25-per-cent MLSE stake, we anticipate near-term balance sheet pressure and believe that a divestiture of MLSE shares (on a net basis vs the current situation) is uncertain for 2026."
The analyst named BCE Inc. (BCE-T) his top pick in telecom stocks, keeping a “buy” rating and Street-high $42 target. The average is $36.08.
“With a clear corporate strategy, management appears ready to execute on the turnaround,” he said. “We expect investors’ focus will shift to more positive aspects of the story with the increased transparency/visibility, potentially positive EBITDA growth in Canada in 2026, Ziply execution and momentum in B2B (including AI initiatives). We see valuation upside at BCE and believe the name is under-owned, which should become more apparent once tax-loss selling season is over.”
Mr. Dubreuil called Lumine Group Inc. (LMN-X) his “best IT services, software and other tech idea.” He has a “buy” rating and $52 target for shares of the Toronto-based digital infrastructure company, exceeding the $49 average.
“A part of this call lies in our view that software companies with resources, drive and foresight (such as the Constellation family) will successfully navigate the AI transition. We believe the recent resumption of M&A activity at LMN will show that little has changed at the company despite the stock being down 47 per cent from all-time highs,” he explained. “Resilience to AI could also support our IT services coverage of GIB and ALYA. Finally, we believe the benefits from FAST channels momentum and the TuneIn acquisition should make 2026 another strong year for RAY.”
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In a client note titled From the Naughty List to the Nice List, Raymond James analyst Michael Barth raised Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T) to a “strong buy” recommendation from “outperform” previously, seeing it offering the best risk/reward proposition in his coverage universe.
“The business has finally turned the corner operationally, the balance sheet is in great shape, secular gas tailwinds behind the legacy business are strong, and plenty of upside optionality exists that we believe investors get for free today,” he said.
“Secular tailwinds should accelerate into 2026. The growth in U.S. LNG export capacity and the increase in domestic consumption from the data center thematic should both drive significant natural gas production growth through 2030, with a notable pick-up starting in 2026. That production growth should lead to healthy bookings in the ES segment while allowing EFX to accelerate organic growth in their U.S. contract compression fleet (the one we think investors want to see growth capital allocated to). In our view, risk is skewed to the upside on core consensus ES bookings in 2026, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see FY26 growth capital guidance come in higher than expected when it’s released early next year. These durable legacy businesses help support a mid-teens sustaining FCF yield, and the secular tailwinds here arealmostcommodity price agnostic."
Mr. Barth’s target rose “modestly to $25 from $24.50 per share to reflect his revised estimates ”which represents 26-per-cent upside to the current share price, and still includes no value for a successful Kurdistan resolution or success in the power vertical." The average on the Street is $22.45.
“Our DCF spits out a $25 per share target, and includes no upside from a successful Kurdistan resolution or success in the power vertical; together, those two options could easily add more than $5/share to our target,” he explained. “In addition, the stock is trading at a mid-teens sustaining FCF yield on our 2026 estimates, which is enough to grow the dividend, repurchase shares, and grow the business while naturally deleveraging. From a SOTP lens, it’s also easy enough to arrive at a $25-26/share target on the base business, and we think this new management team has shown some willingness to simplify the business (which could make SOTP math relevant). In our view, the upside case is clear, and downside should be relatively limited given the relatively contracted nature of the EI/AMS businesses, and the secular drivers behind the ES business.”
“The full list of tailwinds we don’t think are fully appreciated by the market,” he added.
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Precious metals analysts at RBC Capital Markets expect gold prices to reach new highs in 2026, seeing producers “experiencing a perfect storm” and “behaving responsibly” amid the gains.
“The gold price year-to-date in 2025 has increased by a significant 60 per cent, outperforming all major asset classes,” they said in a report released Wednesday. “Prior high gains and ongoing support have been driven by both central bank and investment demand, where gold’s value as a non-sovereign asset and portfolio hedge has been reinforced. RBC forecasts an average gold price of $4,600/oz in 2026 (up 35 per cent year-over-year; and a YE26 price of $4,800/oz) and $5,100/oz in 2027 (up 11 per cent year-over-year). Key themes we highlight include: (1) Hostile global policy has divided economies, raising geopolitical risk and reshaping the outlook for growth and inflation. (2) AI is prompting technological change and re-shaping the world, also adding to uncertainties over growth and inflation. (3) Softer monetary policy remains on the horizon, despite above-target inflation being sustained. (4) High government indebtedness and ongoing budget deficits remain an enduring headwind. A key risk to our outlook includes rising growth that supports firmer monetary policy, higher yields, and US$ strength, which could prompt investor re-positioning away from perceived safe-haven assets.
“A high gold price and relatively low cost inflation have pushed producer margins to record highs, which has contributed to gold equities’ exceptional ytd performance of up 139 per cent. In the current cycle, producers have focused on deleveraging, limiting cost inflation, and returning cash to shareholders. At spot gold prices, we calculate 2026 margins of $1,470/oz (a remarkable 7 times vs. 2023) and sector net debt to EBITDA is 0.0 times, both of which provide a larger- than-normal cushion in a downside gold price scenario. Return of capital for RBC’s large cap gold producer coverage improved to 2.4 per cent in 2025E (RBCe 3.2 per cent in 2026), more closely matching the S&P500 ’s TTM [trailing 12 months] 3.0 per cent. Historically, gold producers have behaved pro-cyclically, resulting in sharply higher costs/capital, rising reserve assumptions, and increasing M&A in a rising price environment, which has ultimately eroded investor returns. Today, producers are operating with a significantly more prudent approach to capital allocation and discretionary spending, and we expect reserves to be calculated at a conservative less than $2,000/oz, less than 50 per cent of current gold price.”
With updates to the firm’s commodity price deck, Toronto-based equity analyst Josh Wolfson said he sees royalty companies as “trading at attractive valuation levels and well-insulated versus producers ahead of guidance season risks into 1Q” following a recent valuation contraction.
Given that view, Mr. Wolfson made a trio of rating revisions for companies in his coverage universe. He upgraded these stocks:
* Franco Nevada Corp. (FNV-N, FNV-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” with a US$250 target, up from US$225. The average is US$242.39.
“Cobre Panama remains a key upcoming catalyst. In Nov 2023, the Cobre Panama mine in Panama was shut down, following widespread protests in country, impacting 20 per cent of FNV’s production. Following the election of a new President in May 2024, discussions with Panama over the reopening of the mine are now scheduled to occur in early 2026. Ultimately, the pathway to production remains contingent on both congress and the population of Panama approving the project, which is uncertain. However, FNV in our view continues to reflect less than 50-per-cent probability of this restart occurring, which we view as supportive to shares. Operator First Quantum has historically outlined a 6-9 month period to achieve 80 per cent of capacity, once a restart occurs (RBCe conservatively mid-2028).
“Stable base case output in upcoming years, growth from optionality. At spot commodity prices, we forecast FNV to have stable GEO production over an upcoming 5Y period, while the potential resumption of Cobre Panama could improve this outlook to growth of 25 per cent. In the current high gold price environment, additional opportunities for upside in upcoming years include (1) the advancement of new projects, where New Prosperity in particular could represent a considerable driver of 10-per-cent production and returns, if advanced; (2) rising gold price assumptions for reserves by operators, which contribute to FNV’s NAV; and (3) rising capital spending and discretionary exploration by operators that could result in reserve and production improvements for FNV’s underlying assets.”
* Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM-N, WPM-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” with a US$130 target, up from US$115. Average: US$135.15.
“High investment in prior years will begin to bear fruit over 2026. In recent years, WPM has completed a high volume of stream transactions on new development projects. While growth realized to date has been limited, we forecast ramp-ups over 2026 will begin to culminate in high and consistent sequential annual growth over 2027-2031. As compared to 2025E GEO production of 655koz, we forecast WPM is positioned to deliver growth in excess of 45 per cent by 2030, the highest across the royalty group. We view WPM’s valuation as undemanding today in spite of this upside that is now closer in sight, plus the company disproportionately benefits from rising silver prices (37 per cent of revenue). Key growth contributors include a lengthy list of ramp-ups and projects, most notably Blackwater, Copper World, El Domo, Fenix, Kone, Kurmuk, Platreef, Santo Domingo, and Spring Valley,” he explained.
Conversely, Mr. Wolfson downgraded Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-N, AEM-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” with a US$205 target, up from US$185. The average on the Street is US$201.87.
“Good growth is upcoming,” he said. AEM has outlined a suite of five highquality development projects to deliver long-term growth upside, including Malartic underground, Detour underground, Hope Bay, Upper Beaver, and San Nicolas. Combined, the company has indicated ultimate potential production volumes of 4moz, which we estimate could be achieved by 2032. In upcoming years, AEM faces stable production of 3.4moz and rising capital spending to deliver long-term growth. We view AEM’s project portfolio as offering highly competitive returns; however, the development and execution of multiple projects concurrently could reduce FCF as compared to peers and raise execution risk.
“Growth also comes at a price. In our view, AEM is well-positioned financially to deliver higher upcoming spending, given a reported 3Q cash position of $2.4b and net cash of $2.2b, and we calculate the company can deliver on this higher-spending profile down to significantly lower gold prices of $2,500/oz. However, consensus forecasts do not appropriately reflect AEM’s higher upcoming spending plans or industry expected operating cost inflation. As compared to RBCe corporate capex of $2.2b in 2025E, consensus estimates reflect 3Y capex (i.e. 2026-28) of $2.1b/a vs. RBCe $2.9b, and AISC of $1,350/oz vs. 2025E ~$1,300/oz and RBCe $1,490/oz at spot (or $1,580/oz at deck).”
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Following the release of “exceptional” third-quarter results on Wednesday to cap its first year as a publicly traded company, Stifel analyst Martin Landry acknowledged Groupe Dynamite Inc.’s (GRGD-T) valuation is now “healthy” at 32 times projected calendar 2026 earnings per share, however he thinks “it is warranted given the strong EPS growth rates above 50 per cent year-over-year currently.”
Shares of the Montreal-based clothing retailer jumped 7.3 per cent after it reported revenue of $362.97-million, up 40.3 per cent year-over-year and above Mr. Landry’s $343.41-million expectation. Earnings per share jumped 76 per cent to 72 cents, topping his 57-cent projection, which he attributed to stronger gross margin and better SG&A leverage than anticipated.
“Groupe Dynamite reported Q3FY25 comparable-store sales growth of 28.6 per cent year-over-year (on a constant currency basis), above our expectations of 26.0 per cent and consensus of 26.8 per cent,” the analyst said. “With low inventory levels and quick turnaround times, Group Dynamite can pivot rapidly and offer products aligned with current trends. The company has also extended its ‘off-duty’ product selection with a wide offering of athleisure products. These clearly resonate with customers. Sales momentum is continuing into Q4 at the same pace as Q3, which suggests that there could be upside our estimate of 24-per-cent samestore-sales growth under a scenario where the Q3/25 pace is sustained during all of Q4/25. Management’s full-year comparable sales guidance suggests a growth of 19-27 per cent for Q4/25.
“Q3FY25 gross margin improved 310 basis points year-over-year to reach 66.1 per cent, the highest level in more than three years and higher than our expectations of 63.3 per cent. The increase came from better control on merchandise costs, lower freight costs and reduced markdowns. SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales decreased by 340 bps to 25.9 per cent on good fixed cost absorption. This translated into an EBITDA margin of 40.2 per cent, up 650 bps Y/Y, and the highest level reported by the company in the last 3 years.”
Mr. Landry also emphasized strong trends “appear to have continued post-quarter” with management indicating fourth-quarter comparable sales are “comfortably in-line with Q3, suggesting that GRGD’s strong momentum is not abating.”
“In addition, Black Friday sales were above expectations on higher traffic but also due to higher transaction values,” he added. “This echoes data published by Bloomberg on observed debit/ credit card sales, which suggest increases of 65 per cent year-over-year in the U.S. for the last five weeks ending November 30th.”
“Management offered some color on expectations for FY26 which include: 1) 18 to 20 gross store opening planned for North America, 2) comparable same-storesales growth in the high-single digits driven by traffic and pricing, 3) continued gross margin expansion attributed to easier comps in H1/25 from tariff tailwinds and savings from the ramp up of the U.S. DC and 4) continued scale benefits from a portion of SG&A expenses being fixed.”
Also seeing it “graduating to a more affluent customer” as stores are re-located to malls in more affluent neighborhoods, Mr. Landry increased his 2026 EPS estimate by 14 per cent (to $2.60 from $2.28), which he calls “a sizable revision which reflects the updated guidance.” He also introduced his 2027 forecast, which includes revenue to increase by 16 per cent year-over-year, on comparable sales growth of 8 per cent and from 11 new store openings.
That led him to hike his target for Groupe Dynamite shares to $96 from $80, keeping a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $79.25.
“Management highlighted that a large portion of its employees are now shareholders of GRGD, which may partly explain the company’s recent success. The Board of Directors declared a $2.30 special dividend, providing liquidity to the CEO, and potentially delaying a secondary offering, in our view,” he added.
Elsewhere, Scotia’s John Zamparo upgraded Groupe Dynamite to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” with a $95 target, up from $73.
“Despite the stock’s run, we anticipate further upside as GRGD’s outstanding top-line is now accompanied by much higher EPS growth. Fashion stocks can be inherently unpredictable, and tend to show sharp volatility both up and down. However, the next two quarters seem set for a continuation of GRGD’s sterling performance. The longer-term highlight from FQ3 was the admission that the 2028 store count goal (approximately 350) could potentially be conservative. An increase to that # in 26 could prove a positive catalyst, and others exist as well: successful UK store openings, continued US DC expansion, and ongoing resilience in the apparel space. With our 2026 estimated EPS now at more than $2.50 (up 25 per cent vs. our last estimate), and our P/E multiple inched up to 37 times, reflecting improved margin performance, $95 becomes our new target price,” said Mr. Zamparo.
Analysts making target revisions include:
* BMO’s Stephen MacLeod to $97 from $76 with an “outperform” rating.
“We believe strong comps momentum should continue to be positive for the stock, combined with Groupe Dynamite’s positioning as a luxury-inspired affordable indulgence, its supply chain flexibility, ability to chase in-season, real estate strategy, and strong brand heat,” said Mr. MacLeod. “We continue to believe Groupe Dynamite is well-positioned in the North American fast fashion.”
women’s apparel market, with several drivers of high-teens adj. EBITDA growth."
* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison to $97 from $68 with a “buy” rating.
“Groupe Dynamite reported another strong quarter, handily exceeding expectations and raising its key guidance metrics for F2025. With a developing track record for consistent premium growth supported by its on-trend product offering driving SSSG/eCommerce penetration, its real estate optimization strategy, and solid FCF/BS strength, we believe GDI’s top-decile multiple is warranted,” said Mr. Morrison.
* RBC’s Irene Nattel to $95 from $77 with an “outperform” rating.
“Substantially better-than-expected Q3 KPIs put GRGD on Santa’s sled to meet/exceed revised F25 guidance and head into F26 with strong momentum underpinned by brand heat and exceptional customer engagement. In our view, many of the attributes that are driving Aritzia’s growth south of the border are similarly underpinning GRGD’s journey in that market, and could potentially drive upside to F28 store count target 350 (RBC CM: 342). In our view, as long as GRGD continues to deliver sector-leading results, re-rating should be sustained,” she said.
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $95 from $83 with a “buy” rating.
“GRGD’s very strong results reflect continuing successful execution and resilient consumer demand. Momentum is continuing in 4Q and next year. While GRGD’s premium valuation (31 times our increased FY26E EPS) likely requires and reflects expectations for more beat-and-raises, we believe they are achievable. For long-term investors, our positive view is supported by outsized double-digit EPS growth, a strong balance sheet, high FCF conversion and ROIC,” said Mr. Li.
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $98 from $73 with an “outperform” rating.
“We maintain a favourable disposition on GRGD. Investment in GRGD is differentiated by strong financial metrics, with an EBITDA margin and ROIC that is the highest in our coverage universe (F2024 EBITDA margin of 31.6 per cent and ROIC of 47.4 per cent),” said Mr. Shreedhar.
* Barclays’ Adrienne Yih to $110 from $88 with an “over-weight” rating.
* Raymond James’ Michael Glen to $110 from $72 with an “outperform” rating.
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RBC Dominion Securities analyst Bart Dziarski thinks the current valuation for AGF Management Ltd. (AGF.B-T) “does not reflect the company’s strong investment performance track record driving retail net flow outperformance, capital deployment optionality, and potential inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrat Index.”
“AGF has started to pivot towards building a Private Markets business, which we have a neutral view on overall driven by lack of scale,” he added. “AGF trades at a discount P/E multiple vs. peers and its historical average and we believe 8.5 times P/E is justified, which is in-line with AGF’s historical average and a smaller discount to peers.”
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Dziarski initiated coverage of the Toronto-based asset management firm with an “outperform” rating, seeing its “strong” free cash flow generation is providing capital optionality.
“Net of dividends paid, we estimate AGF generates $100-million of FCF providing ample flexibility towards deploying into NCIB (which the company is active on) or M&A (AGF deployed $40-million in 2024),” he said. “AGF currently meets two of three criteria for inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats index and we estimate inclusion could occur as early as 2027, which would be a positive catalyst. We estimate AGF can deploy 50 per cent of excess FCF into incremental NCIB in the near-term to drive MSD [mid-single-digit] EPS accretion.
“Strong investment performance [is] driving positive net retail sales which we expect to continue. AGF has consistently outperformed peers in retail net flows since 2021, with cumulative flows representing 7-per-cent share of industry inflows well above its 1-per-cent market share. We believe the primary driver of the outperformance has been strong investment performance, with AGF funds ranking in the 35th-39th percentiles on a blended basis across 5-year and 10-year time periods. We model positive retail net flows continuing near term (1.7 per cent/1.5 per cent of AUM in 2026/2027), supported by equity market tailwinds, product launches, and above-industry retention rates of 14 per cent. AGF is in the process of searching for a new Global CIO which is an item we are monitoring as we believe the role will play a primary part in ensuring strong investment performance will continue.”
Mr. Dziarski set a target of $18 for AGF shares. The current average is $16.44.
Concurrently, he initiated coverage of Sprott Inc. (SII-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $132 target, exceeding the $127.51 average on the Street.
“We believe valuation appropriately reflects its growth outlook. Following significant appreciation in precious metal (e.g. gold, silver) prices, Sprott’s valuation multiple has re-rated higher in 2025. We expect growth to continue near-term albeit not at 2025 levels. We introduce a valuation framework for Sprott based on royalty peers given its leverage to commodity prices, no production risk, and structurally higher EBITDA margins,” said Mr. Dziarski.
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RBC Dominion Securities analyst James McGarragle named Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) his “top idea” for 2026 in his Canadian Aerospace and Diversified Industrials coverage universe, seeing it as “still a compelling opportunity despite the 130-per-cent move in the shares year-to-date.
“We are flagging Bombardier as our top idea into next year,” he explained. “Key here is that despite a huge lift in the shares in 2025, Bombardier still yields 6 per cent on consensus 2026 FCF, which we believe represents compelling value. In the near-term, we see strong demand, as evidenced by a strong 1.3 times BTB, as positioning the company to achieve the high end of its FCF guide and as setting the stage for solid backlog visibility into 2028. In the medium to long-term we continue to see 1) increased defense spending as pointing to upside to production targets and 2) a mix shift toward Challengers and Globals as well as share gain as supporting mid-to-high single-digit Services growth to 2030. All that to say, we see runway for Bombardier to compound FCF at greater than a low-teen CAGR well into the 2030s - a compelling investment opportunity for shares trading at a 6-per-cent FCF yield.”
Mr. McGarragle raised his target for Bombardier shares to $263 from $230 with an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $226.
The other two stocks on his top ideas list are:
2. Air Canada (AC-T) with an “outperform” rating and $25 target. Average: $23.58.
Analyst: “Looking through transitory 2026, and seeing a compelling long-term opportunity. We highlight AC as our #2 investment idea on the back of a robust FCF outlook, which we anticipate will benefit from improving margins and normalizing capital expenditures, leading to a meaningful FCF inflection in 2028 and 2029 (representing FCF yields of 30 per cent and 50 per cent, respectively). That said, we expect 2026 to be a transition year, as margins in our view will face pressure from aircraft delivery delays, updated labor agreements, and rising airport infrastructure costs. Key here is that these nearterm headwinds do not in our view impact our long-term forecasts but have meaningfully weighed on sentiment creating a very attractive entry point for those willing to look through the next 12 to 18 months. While a lot can happen over the next 2-3 years, and we therefore discount heavily our outyear FCF estimates, strong operational performance in 2025 despite a significant drop in transborder traffic gives us increased confidence in management’s ability to execute longer-term. Moreover, we expect this ramp in FCF to be largely driven by a drop in capex in 2028 and 2029, and therefore less sensitive to any changes in the macro.”
3. Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) with an “outperform” rating and $94 target. Average:
Analyst: ”Exposure to long-term secular trends not well appreciated. We see Exchange as exposed to meaningful long-term secular tailwinds across its subsidiary companies. The company’s exposure to Defense and Artic Sovereignty investment via PAL as well as Canadian North represent significant longer-term opportunities, which are to a degree reflected in valuation in our view. However, we do not believe Exchange gets credit for its significant exposure to Infrastructure and Housing investment, both of which were key items in the recent Canadian budget. We believe Northern Mat and the Windows segment are very well positioned to benefit here and believe this represents attractive upside optionality at current valuation."
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With Wednesday’s announcement of a long-term tolling agreement with Puget Sound Energy Inc., National Bank Financial analyst Patrick Kenny sees TransAlta Corp. (TA-T) “breathing new life into legacy thermal assets.”
The deal centres on the conversion of the Centralia Unit 2 facility from coal to natural gas-fired generation and includes a fixed-price capacity payment that provides PSE the exclusive right to the capacity, energy and ancillary service attributes as well as the dispatch rights.
“TA expects the conversion to cost US$600-million at a build multiple of 5.5 times with an anticipated FID [final investment decision] following receipt of all required approvals in early 2027, targeting an ISD in late 2028,” said Mr. Kenny. “Elsewhere, the company has been active in enhancing its gas-fired portfolio, including entering into a definitive agreement with Hut 8 Corp. and Macquarie Equipment Finance Ltd. in November to acquire Far North and its entire business operations in Ontario for $95-million. Recall, the acquisition adds four natural gas-fired generation facilities with 310 MW of capacity and $30-million of average annual adj. EBITDA (68-per-cent contracted for five years commencing May 1, 2026), with the transaction expected to close by Q1/26.”
“Incorporating the Ontario tuck-in acquisition along with the long-term agreement with PSE, our 2026 estimates remain largely intact, while we introduce 2027 estimated AFFO/sh (FD) of $1.54 and D/EBITDA of 4.2 times.”
Maintaining his “sector perform” rating for TransAlta shares, Mr. Kenny increased his target to $22 from $18. The average is $24.15.
“Rolling our valuation to 2027 in conjunction with bringing the Centralia coal to gas conversion project into our model as well as the recently announced 310 MW of assets acquired from Far North, our target moves up a combined $4 to $22, matching our 2027 estimated SOTP [sum-of-the-parts] valuation,” he said. “Based on a 10.0-per-cent 12-month total return opportunity, we maintain our SP rating, while highlighting 50-per-cent bluesky valuation upside pending further Phase 2 data centre opportunity details/clarity at its upcoming Investor Day in the new year.”
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* TD Cowen’s John Mould to $27 from $26 with a “buy” rating.
“TA shares closed up 3.5 per cent [Tuesday]; in our view this reflects a larger-than-anticipated EBITDA contribution from Centralia’s recontracting / coal-to-gas conversion (despite higher capital costs & build multiple relative to our assumptions). The 5.5-times build multiple is attractive relative to TA’s 10-times trading level and adds long-term contracted revenues (16-year),” said Mr. Mould.
* ATB Capital Markets’ Nate Heywood to $27 from $26 with an “outperform” rating.
“Overall, we view the announcement as positive for TA, and expect the market will continue to anticipate a potential data centre announcement in Alberta following TA’s 230MW DTS contract agreement with AESO,” said Mr. Heywood.
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In other analyst actions:
* To reflect positive revisions to his estimates following the release of Advantage Energy Ltd.’s (AAV-T) 2026 guidance, Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch bumped his target for its shares to $15 from $14.50 with a “buy” rating, while ATB Capital Markets’ Amir Arif raised his target to $15 from $14 with an “outperform” rating. The average is
“The development program aligns with the previously outlined three-year plan, with capital spending and 6-per-cent annual production growth largely matching expectations. Meanwhile, continued improvements in Glacier well results have contributed to enhanced capital efficiencies and further reduced operating costs, two key factors supporting upward revisions to estimates,” Mr. MacCulloch said.
* In response to Monday’s announcement of its agreement to acquire a 25-per-cent gold royalty and 2-per-cent royalty on other metals from the Pedra Branca mine in Brazil from BlackRock World Mining Trust and its concurrent US$103.5-million bought deal financing, National Bank’s Shane Nagle raised his target for shares of Vancouver’s Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY-A) to US$5.50 from $4.75 with an “outperform” rating, seeing the move adding near-term cash flow and the company ending 2025 in a net cash position, while BMO’s Rene Cartier raised his target to $4.75 from $4.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average target is US$4.93.
“We have incorporated the Pedra Branca acquisition, updated metal price assumptions and account for the recent equity raise. Our Outperform rating remains supported by the company’s near-term revenue growth, optionality from the project generation group and a discounted valuation. The near-term FCF growth sets the Company apart from peers within the junior royalty sector and advancement of assets like Malartic, Vareš and Côté drive a near-term re-rating opportunity,” said Mr. Nagle.