Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial’s Patrick Kenny expects pipeline and energy infrastructure companies to benefit from a “resurgence in political will surrounding the buildout of traditional energy infrastructure alongside an accelerating Big Data buildout” in 2026.
In a research report titled If you build it, they will come…, the equity analyst introduced his new “AFFO Yield+ Growth” valuation profile “normalizing free cash flow yields for growth profiles” and touting attractive investing opportunities across his coverage universe.
“Although WTI prices are expected to hold relatively flat going forward, we highlight continued WCSB production growth of over 500 mbpd through 2027, confirming the industry’s ability to fill any and all available pipeline capacity,” Mr. Kenny said. “As such, we outline 700-800 mbpd of medium-term egress expansions to sustain healthy customer demand for crude oil & condensate infrastructure (BIP, ENB, GEI, KEY, PPL, SOBO) while the Major Projects Office (MPO) looks to thread the needle on the longer-term 1.0 mmbpd Westcoast pipeline and tethered Pathways CCS project. On the natural gas front, with both the 1.8 bcf/d LNG Canada Phase 2 and 1.6 bcf/d Ksi Lisims being deemed of National Interest, combined with the Cedar and Woodfibre projects in flight, we highlight over 6.0 bcf/d of LNG demand over the coming years, supporting rising asset utilization and the next wave of growth across the gas & NGL infrastructure landscape (ALA, KEY, PPL, RGSI, TRP).”
His bullish view of the sector is also driven by the tailwinds generated by an acceleration of the "Big Data Buildout” as well the trajectory of interest rates domestically.
“In just one year since publishing our “Big Data Buildout” thematic, the Alberta interconnection queue has skyrocketed to approximately 20 GW (was 6.3 GW) ahead of the AESO’s Phase 2 ‘bring your own power’ application process to be rolled out in early 2026,“ he said. ”Combined with the Alberta government releasing its Data Sovereignty game plan by July 1st in order to attract ‘thousands of MWs’ of data centre development as part of the ‘Grand Bargain’ MOU, we expect an active year on the data centre deal front for CPX, PPL and TA. On the U.S. side of the border, with affordability pressures and grid instability concerns top of mind, we continue to view dispatchable natural gas-fired generation assets as being in pole position for further recontracting upside and brownfield expansions (CPX).
“With the overnight rate now at the lower end of the Bank of Canada’s neutral range (2.25-3.25 per cent), our NBC Economics & Strategy group foresees the BoC remaining largely on the sidelines throughout 2026e, while on the longer end of the curve, the 10-year GCAN rate is expected to edge moderately higher on the back of the $78-billion 2025-2026 federal budget deficit, albeit remaining largely in line with our unchanged long-term 3.0-per-cent assumption within our cost of capital assumptions. We highlight 2027 EV/EBITDA valuations suggesting 17-per-cent upside on average for the Pipelines & Midstream group, while a reversion to the mean for the Power & Utilities group represents 7-per-cent downside on average.”
Mr. Kenny made one rating revision, upgrading Calgary-based Rockpoint Gas Storage Inc. (RGSI-T), which began trading after its initial public offering in October, to “outperform” from “sector perform” based on “its attractive over 20-per-cent 2027 estimated AFFO Yield+ coupled with a healthy balance sheet poised to accelerate growth.”
“For fiscal 2028 (April 2027 to March 2028), we forecast AFFO/sh of US$2.12, representing more than 15-per-cent growth year-over-year, with a four-year AFFO/sh CAGR (f2026-f2030) of 10 per cent,” he explained. “As such, we highlight an attractive AFFO Yield+ profile (i.e., AFFO Yield + AFFO/sh CAGR [compound annual growth rate]) of 21 per cent, well above the peer group average of 16 per cent and underpinning our upgrade to Outperform from Sector Perform.
“We forecast EBITDA of US$404-million for f2028 with D/EBITDA declining to 2.5 times versus the company’s less than 3.5 times target, confirming ample dry powder to pursue additional near-term growth projects or tuck-in M&A opportunities amid the more constructive macro backdrop and political will surrounding the buildout of energy infrastructure - supporting Westcoast LNG demand growth and Alberta natural gas-fired generation for data centre development.
Also expecting Rockpoint to “successfully signing additional long-term take-or-pay contracts through 2026 at higher rates” and noting the “potential for enhanced trading liquidity/reduced stock price volatility following the expiration of Brookfield’s six-month lock-up (April 2026) and the potential release of the remaining Class A shares to the market,” he hiked his target by $5 to $31. The average target on the Street is $32.34, according to LSEG data.
Mr. Kenny also named Rockpoint as one of his “top picks” for 2026. The others are:
- AltaGas Ltd. (ALA-T, “outperform”) with a $50 target, up $46. The average is $47.33.
- Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T, “outperform”) with a $74 target. Average: $77.44.
- Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI-T, “outperform”) with a $29 target. Average: $27.82.
- TC Energy Corp. (TRP-T, “outperform”) with an $85 target, rising from $76. Average: $81.11.
His target changes are:
- Atco Ltd. (ACO.X-T, “outperform”) to $54 from $51. Average: $58.83.
- Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (BIP-N/BIP.UN-T, “outperform”) to US$38 from US$36. Average: US$42.22.
- Canadian Utilities Ltd. (CU-T, “sector perform”) to $43 from $40. Average: $42.50.
- Emera Inc. (EMA-T, “sector perform”) to $67 from $63. Average: $71.14.
- Enbridge Inc. (ENB-T, “sector perform”) to $71 from $66. Average: $70.
- Fortis Inc. (FTS-T, “sector perform”) to $72 from $68. Average: $72.87.
- Hydro One Ltd. (H-T, “sector perform”) to $53 from $49. Average: $53.40.
- Keyera Corp. (KEY-T, “sector perform”) to $48 from $45. Average: $50.50.
- South Bow Corp. (SOBO-N/SOBO-T, “sector perform”) to US$29 from US$27. Average: US$28.35.
- Superior Plus Corp. (SPB-T, “sector perform”) to $7 from $6.50. Average: $9.50.
After a “moderate” 2025 for his pipeline and midstream coverage list, CIBC World Markets analyst Robert Catellier predicts the 12 months ahead “could be volatile if the market cools on AI/data centre themes, but U.S. natural gas permitting reform may offset this risk.
“Given CIBC Equity and Portfolio Strategy’s recent call for a buyable market correction in H1/26, investors may need to be more tactical in 2026,” he said in a client report released Wednesday. “There is a premium placed on exposure to natural gas, asset incumbency, and risk-adjusted rewards between Canada and the U.S., suggesting gas-weighted names may fare better in a correction.”
Mr. Catellier also thinks near-term headwinds could “create a better entry point” while acknowledging “growth remains” in the industry.
“Valuations are relatively high, and credit spreads historically low, causing us to believe there could be a pullback in the sector if the AI/data centre theme cools a bit,” he explained. “Broader markets may experience headwinds from the Fed transition or turmoil surrounding the USMCA negotiations. If a pullback does materialize, it could present an opportunity to add to positions with obvious catalysts or exposure to the natural gas buildout and permitting reform efforts in the U.S. Industry headlines in Canada will likely surround key milestones for various items in the Canada-Alberta MOU for energy development on April 1 and July 1.”
“While commodity prices are a short-term headwind for companies with marketing exposure, fee-for-service EBITDA is still growing, with more opportunities to deploy capital ahead. The sources of growth vary, with natural gas and power being a strong driver in the U.S. and the oil sands in the WCSB creating more NGL opportunities. In general, we prefer adding or entering positions when commodity prices experience some weakness, with a view of reversion to the mean over the medium term.”
Mr. Catellier made one rating revision, upgraded Superior Plus Corp. (SPB-T) to “outperformer” from “neutral” previously, citing recent price performance.
“Cold weather to start the heating season may help sentiment, but our valuation year is 2027. U.S. propane inventories are low, which may help pricing if cold weather persists,” he said.
His target for Superior Plus shares rose to $9 from $8.50. The average is $9.50.
Mr. Catellier’s target prices include:
- AltaGas Ltd. (ALA-T, “outperformer”) to $50 from $47. Average: $47.33.
- Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (BIP-N/BIP.UN-T, “outperformer”) to US$44 from US$42. Average: US$42.22.
- Enbridge Inc. (ENB-T, “neutral”) to $69 from $71. Average: $70.
- TC Energy Corp. (TRP-T, “outperformer”) to $81 from $78. Average: $81.11.
"Top Picks: We see KEY [’outperformer’ and $57 target] as having the most upside as closing the Plains NGL acquisition could serve as a meaningful catalyst. We also like WMB [’outperformer’ and US$69 target] for its exposure to the U.S. natural gas buildout," he said.
CIBC World Markets analyst Mark Jarvi sees potential gains for both utility and power stock in his coverage universe in 2026.
“Regulated Utilities fared better than Power in 2025 largely on better execution, stronger results (positive estimate revisions through 2025 and for 2026) and were rewarded with higher P/E trading multiples (re-ratings drove more than 50 per cent of returns in 2025),” he said. “As we look into 2026, positive momentum in Utility businesses should persist—however some will lap tougher comps and further re-rating is harder to argue for, thus capping total return potential. Nevertheless, with the potential for a moderation in risk appetite, owning some quality Utilities with diversified growth at reasonable valuations is important (we have Outperformer ratings on ACO.X and FTS). For Power names, we still see untapped value across many and structural tailwinds in power markets that should be positive for growth.
“We prefer stocks with more well-rounded growth profiles and ability to crystallize value from positive contracting/RFP announcements to come in 2026—CPX and BLX check the most boxes and are our preferred names, albeit both have to bring more consistent/clarified updates to improve investor sentiment/conviction."
In a report released Wednesday, Mr. Jarvi named three top picks for the year ahead:
* Atco Ltd. (ACO.X-T, “outperformer”) with a $68 target, up from $67. Average: $58.83.
Analyst: “We believe ACO.X offers higher growth potential and can deliver stronger EPS than the market gives it credit for. While some might be leery of the non-utility businesses, we see them as growth drivers. Neltume Ports has continued to meet/exceed our forecast and Structures & Logistics (S&L) has consistently delivered better results in recent years than the market assumed. We believe S&L’s growth can be maintained and should benefit from growing off a lower market share in the U.S. and policy/government funding tailwinds in Canada (supports infrastructure, defense and Northern Canada initiatives). In terms of valuation, ACO.X is one utility trading below its 10-year P/E average (11.2 times vs. 12.9 times) and we see an attractive total return proposition.”
* Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T, “outperform”) with an $81 target (unchanged). Average: $77.44.
Analyst: “We believe the growth drivers and ability to achieve its recently outlined 8-10-per-cent AFFO/sh growth target through 2030 are underappreciated. In our view,CPX can drive strong upside (4-7 per cent) from capital-light margin upside from higher merchant prices (AB and in the U.S.) and from recontracting of U.S. assets. Further, it has a track record, capability and supportive partners to drive value creation from more M&A. While some investors might be fussed by a lack of valuation creation to date in Alberta from data centre opportunities, we still believe that can materialize and the stock price today only assumes $60/MWh in Alberta in 2028 (below our assumption and forwards in the $75-$80/MWh range). Overall, it checks the boxes in terms of paths to drive total shareholder returns, including a growing attractive dividend, solid per share growth prospective (with manageable funding needs) and valuation re-rating potential.”
* Boralex Inc. (BLX-T, “outperformer”) with a $37 target, down from $38. Average: $36.
Analyst: “BLX suffered through an uninspiring 2025. U.S. policy uncertainty clouded most renewable stocks and then once momentum turned more positive, BLX’s quarterly results and announcements skewed negative (CFO departure, no hydro asset sales, commissioning delays). We believe 2026 can bring more positive news on development with multiple RFP announcements to come that could solidify its growth path to 2030. Further, BLX should lap easier comparables next year and we have the company generating some of the strongest Y/Y growth in our coverage. On valuation, the stock is very attractive trading at a >30% discount to our NAV (highest in our coverage). We believe the quality of its assets/team and the growth will ultimately reward investors.”
Mr. Jarvi also made these other target adjustments:
- Canadian Utilities Ltd. (CU-T, “neutral”) to $44 from $43. Average: $42.50.
- Fortis Inc. (FTS-T, “outperformer”) to $76 from $75. Average: $72.87.
- Northland Power Inc. (NPI-T, “outperformer”) to $23 from $22. Average: $22.57.
- TransAlta Corp. (TA-T, “outperformer”) to $26 from $25. Average: $24.15.
While acknowledging shares of Boralex Inc. (BLX-T) “look to be trading at an attractive level,” RBC Dominion Securities analyst Nelson Ng does not think the market is currently “fully appreciates the magnitude of EBITDA headwinds in 2025 and 2026,” leading him to lower his forecast and emphasize “limited catalysts in the coming year (limited generation capacity scheduled to be commissioned in 2026).”
“We estimate that there will be about $150-million of EBITDA headwinds when comparing 2026 with 2024 due to lower realized contracted French power prices (approximately $100-million) and the expiration of U.S. production tax credits (PTCs) on its U.S. wind portfolio ($50-million), since the company includes PTCs in its EBITDA definition,” he said. “Factors offsetting the decline include the 2025 commissioning of some large projects (e.g., Limekiln wind, Apuiat wind, and two Ontario battery storage developments) and a weaker Canadian Dollar.
“Projects scheduled to be commissioned to slow in 2026/27. Boralex is scheduled to commission 615 MW of developments in 2025, including 380 MW of Ontario battery storage projects in December 2025. However, we expect the pace to slow to 45 MW (France) in 2026 and potentially less than 200 MW in 2027 (mainly the 133 MW Des Neiges Sud wind project in Quebec plus some incremental capacity in Europe). We note that Boralex will need to commission 1 GW/year in each of 2028/29/30 to achieve the company’s 7 GW target capacity, which we believe is ambitious.”
While he expects European generation levels to improve in the fourth quarter, offsetting “modestly” reduced North American output, Mr. Ng lowered his 2026 and 2027 EBITDA forecast by about 2 per cent to $750-million and $768-million, respectively (from $764-million and $789-million, respectively) to “reflect some incremental EBITDA headwinds.”
“We estimate that consensus estimates are 4-6 per cent above our forecast, and we expect consensus estimates to move lower,” he added.
Maintaining his “sector perform” rating, Mr. Ng trimmed his target for Boralex shares to $33 from $36, which is the current average on the Street.
“We expect Boralex to perform in line with other companies in our coverage universe,” he said.
Following “mixed” fourth-quarter results, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber thinks negative organic growth weighs on the long-term visibility for Enghouse Systems Ltd. (ENGH-T) despite an enthusiastic response from investors, sending its shares up 4.2 per cent on Tuesday.
The Markham, Ont.-based enterprise software solutions provider reported quarter revenue of $124-million, down 1 per cent from fiscal 2024 and below the Street’s $126-million but above Mr. Treiber’s $122-million projection due to higher non-core hardware gains. With lower costs following its restructuring, adjusted EBITDA came in at $34-million, down 6 per cent year-over-year but above both the analyst’s $31-million estimate and the consensus expectation of $33-million.
“Organic growth remains negative,” said Mr. Treiber. “We estimate constant currency organic growth was negative 11 per cent Q4, which is slightly above the negative 12 per cent in our model and negative 12 per cent last quarter. However, the upside reflects non-core hardware revenue, which is likely not sustainable. Excluding higher hardware revenue, organic growth would have been negative 13 per cent. Headwinds to organic growth remain similar to the last several quarters and include macro delaying deals and reduced license & maintenance revenue. Following Q4, our organic growth estimates move to negative 9 per cent FY26 and negative 5 per cent FY27, down from negative 5 per cent and negative 3 per cent previously.
“A plan for AI. Enghouse is releasing an updated Lifesize cloud contact center offering in January, which management sees as contributing some incremental revenue in its IMG segment. Additionally, Enghouse is setting up professional services groups to consult and help customers deploy AI solution.”
While he raised his margin estimates through 2027 and emphasized M&A and share buybacks are top capital allocation priorities, Mr. Treiber thinks Enghouse’s valuation is “likely to remain near trough levels.”
“Enghouse is trading at 6.2 times NTM [next 12-month] EV/EBITDA, 59 per cent below peers and at the low-end of its 10-year range (6-22 times). We believe Enghouse’s valuation may remain discounted pending a ramp in M&A or improved organic growth,” he explained.
Reaffirming his “sector perform” rating, Mr. Treiber lowered his target for Enghouse shares to $22, matching the average on the Street, from $24.
Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s David Kwan reaffirmed the firm’s “hold” rating and $22 for Enghouse after assuming coverage.
“Organic growth continues to be negative, as ENGH faces ongoing challenges in key end markets, however, margins are improving, aided by recent restructuring activities. A material pickup in M&A and/or buyback activity could help improve sentiment,” said Mr. Kwan.
Desjardins Securities analyst Chris MacCulloch thinks there were few surprises in Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.’s (CNQ-T) in-line 2026 guidance release on Tuesday, noting it outlined preliminary expectations at its November investor open house, with production and capex largely matching his forecast.
“More importantly, CNQ is beginning to lay the foundation for future growth, feathering in capital to support medium- and long-term oil sands expansion projects, complemented by carbon capture solutions,” he said in a client note titled Now, Dasher! now, Dancer! now, Prancer and Vixen! (On, Jackfish! on, Pike! on, Jackpine and Horizon!).
Shares of the Calgary-based company slid 3.7 per cent after it revealed a $6.3-billion operating capital budget, matching the Street’s forecast but falling narrowly under Mr. MacCulloch’s assumption of $6.4-billion. Production guidance was set at 1,590–1,650 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which is largely in line with the consensus (1,615 boe/d) while landing below the analyst’s projection (1,640 boe/d).
“As foreshadowed at the 2025 investor open house, CNQ allocated $175-million of capital toward FEED spending to support future brownfield expansions at Jackfish and the Pike 2 SAGD project, along with the Jackpine mine expansion which could deliver 250 mbbl/d of additional bitumen volumes,” he added. “Meanwhile, capital investment will continue prioritizing oil and liquids-rich targets, with plans to drill 252 net heavy oil wells at Pelican Lake and Driftwood, 110 net light oil wells in the Mannville, Montney, Charlie Lake and Dunvegan formations, and 86 net liquids-rich Duvernay and Montney natural gas locations. Thermal in situ development will include three new CSS pads at Primrose, with first production expected in 3Q26, and a SAGD pad at Kirby scheduled to come online in 2027. Notably, a 35-day turnaround is planned at Horizon beginning in September, with an expected annualized impact of 29 mbbl/d.”
With modest adjustments to his forecast to reflect the guidance, Mr. MacCulloch reiterated a “hold” rating and $52 target. The average is $56.04.
In other analyst actions:
* BMO’s Sohrab Movahedi raised his target for shares of Brookfield Corp. (BN-N, BN-T) to US$49 from US$46 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $52.21.
"We increase our target price on the back of higher valuation at BAM and the listed affiliates,“ he said. ”While we continue to take a sum-of-the-parts approach in deriving our target price, it implies 15.6 times distributable earnings (DE) in 2027. We see 12-per-cent CAGR DE growth at BN, underpinned by rising asset management contributions, the scaling of Wealth Solutions earnings and improving carried interest realizations.
“With the stock closing the gap to our sum-of-the-parts estimate, we wonder whether Wealth Solutions earnings growth is likely to be the key stock driver in 2026."
* Wedbush’s Antoine Legault initiated coverage of Burnaby-founded D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS-N) with an “outperform” rating and US$35 target. The average is US$39.58.
“While still in its infancy, we see broad commercial adoption as being the next major catalyst for the industry and for D-Wave in particular since its annealing systems are ready for commercial use today,” he said. “The combination of D-Wave’s large addressable market and significant real-world benefits from optimization that can be applied across many industries and verticals, coupled with expected energy efficiencies, make QBTS a compelling investment.
“Adoption just beginning. While still early days, certain enterprises and scientific research institutions have already experienced the benefits of D-Wave’s quantum annealers over the cloud, with some customers recently deciding to buy the entire system for proprietary use. In our view, these commercial purchases validate the value proposition of D-Wave’s systems. We expect the company’s revenue pipeline and bookings to grow as more enterprises and institutions realize the benefits of quantum computing across industries including healthcare, finance, energy, logistics, and more. As quantum annealers gradually become more widely adopted by enterprises, we believe D-Wave will strengthen its position as the undisputed industry leader within that specific modality.”
* Following the release of in-line fourth-quarter results, Acumen Capital’s Jim Byrne raised his Mainstreet Equity Corp. (MEQ-T) target to $248 from $250 with a “buy” rating , while ATB Capital Markets’ Chris Murray moved his target to $240 from $235 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $235.
“Our estimates for FY26 come down slightly due to the lower pace of acquisitions in recent quarters. The company has acquired 350 units in Q1/FY26 and we anticipate a much more active acquisition pace in 2026. NOI margins continue to be strong and with the removal of the carbon tax, should continue to expand slightly in the coming quarters as well,” said Mr. Byrne.
* Following an announcement it has been granted two additional exploration permits in Côte d’Ivoire (the Gbatosso and Wendé permits), Canaccord Genuity’s Carey MacRury raised his Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-T) target to a high on the Street of $11 from $9 with a “speculative buy” rating. The average is $9.13.
* With its 2026 guidance and rollover in his valuation, National Bank’s Patrick Kenny bumped his Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PPL-T) target to $60 from $57, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $57.63.
“Overall, with a bump to our longer-term fee-based contributions offset by weaker near-term Marketing margins, combined with rolling our valuation to 2027, our target moves up 5 per cent to $60 (was $57), in line with our four-year AFFO/sh CAGR (2025e-2029e) of 5 per cent,” said Mr. Kenny. “Combined with more than 15-per-cent valuation upside from the PPL’s unsecured growth backlog, we maintain our Outperform rating, highlighting an attractive entry point with the name trading at a 1.5-times discount to its 10-year average EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.7 times.”
* BofA Securities’ Bradley Sills raised his price target for Shopify Inc. (SHOP-Q, SHOP-T) to US$190 from US$185, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is US$180.52.
* Scotia’s Eric Winmill raised his Snowline Gold Corp. (SGD-X) target to $20 from $16.50 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $16.83.
“Snowline announced initiation of a fully funded pre-feasibility study (PFS) for its Valley gold deposit, part of the flagship Rogue project in eastern Yukon. Significant groundwork for the PFS was completed during the 2025 field program, which included extensive engineering and environmental initiatives. These efforts involved drilling, metallurgical testing, hydrological and geochemical sampling, and an expansion of environmental baseline data collection to support future permitting. The PFS is anticipated to take 12 to 15 months. We see initiation of the PFS as a milestone for the company following release of the PEA,” said Mr. Winmill.