Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Citing lower forecasts stemming from Monday’s announcement of the suspension of its flights to Cuba as well as higher jet fuel assumptions, TD Cowen analyst Tim James downgraded Transat AT Inc. (TRZ-T) to “hold” from “buy” previously, emphasizing “narrow margins and financial leverage leave stock/earnings exposed to volatility based on revenue and/or cost headwinds.”
“Given uncertainty around key destination and how travelers respond longer-term, we believe conservative approach is justified,” he said in a client note.
Mr. James said he expects the suspension to remain an overhang to the company’s share price short-term due to the importance of Cuba to its Transat business alongside uncertainty around when operations will resume.
“Cuba is one of the three largest sun destinations for Transat at approximately 10-15 per cent of winter (H1) capacity,” he noted. “Cuba diminishes in significance through the summer, but we believe there could be ongoinguncertainty around the economics of current Cuba capacity for next winter. There may be less-than-optimal workarounds available (refueling at other locations) but we do not currently see an ideal short-term resolution. The current political environment has demonstrated quick and unexpected pivots on numerous occasions, and so anything is possible, in our view. Transat remains optimistic and that it may resume flights as early as May 1, 2026.
“We upgraded Transat last year at $1.92 with the view that the transfer of $9.53/basic share in value from debt (gov’t debt restructuring) to equity combined with the shift of traveler preferences from U.S. destinations (Transat virtually no exposure) to other international destinations (high Transat exposure) would benefit earnings. The impact on share price since that time has been limited and presumably is now discounted in the current share price.”
With his forecast reductions, Mr. James trimmed his target for Transat shares to $3 from $5. The average is $3.30.
“Given Transat’s relatively thin margins (8.3 per cent F2026 estimate), unexpected impacts on traffic and/or pricing can have meaningful impacts on earnings,” he said. “While balance sheet leverage remains elevated, in our view, we believe there is sufficient liquidity ($165-million in cash and equivalents at Q4/F25) to address a temporary loss of earnings and cash flow.
“We believe there will be a time to acquire Transat shares when the Cuba situation is resolved and demand uncertainty normalizes, leaving investors to focus on the franchise strength, attractive valuation, and eventual earnings growth. We may miss early upside in the stock, but prefer a lower risk/higher certainty entry point as we believe there will still be significant medium- to long-term upside potential.”
In the wake of Monday’s announcement from authorities in the Mexican state of Sinaloa that they had recovered 10 bodies in the search for workers kidnapped from a mine run by Vizsla Silver Corp. (VZLA-T), National Bank Financial analyst Don DeMarco downgraded the Canadian miner’s shares to a “sector perform” rating from “outperform” previously, “adding conservatism to [its] development timeline.”
“After removing ourselves from the narrative for a few days to review and assimilate ongoing developments since the weekend, we’ve updated our model and adjusted our Panuco valuation based on limited information from the company and various media outlets,” he said.
“VZLA’s current focus is on the people and collaborating with government agencies and other parties to support investigations. Clearly, this is a difficult time, and our thoughts go to families and colleagues involved. The situation remains fluid, and we are working to better understand the risks and mitigating factors that support our model estimates.”
In a client note, Mr. DeMarco said the merits of the company’s 100-per-cent-owned Panuco silver-gold project in Sinaloa, Mexico, where the mine is located, “remain unchanged.” He pointed to: “(i) advanced Feasibility Stage-stage project; (ii) located in a historic mining district, with proposed U/G operations, and no land disturbances among factors supportive of permitting; (iii) re-rating potential given single-asset status, and we look to recent M&A precedents, including P/NAV for PAAS/MAG 1.53 times (May 2025), and AR/GATO (September 2024) 1.77x times (iv) low capex intensity; (v) high-grade, high-margin, front-end loaded mine plan; (vi) elevated FCF; and (vii) tangible exploration potential.”
“We expect VZLA to take a step back to assess the security situation, better understand the motives, if possible, and work with the government to implement a security protocol to mitigate risk to all parties involved,” he added. “We spoke to the company earlier this week, and they are not abandoning plans to start construction in Q3/26, are continuing to advance engineering and procurement as they don’t require on-site staffing, though will defer U/G drilling, which is viewed as discretionary. With this, the company maintains first pour in Q4/27, subject to receipt of permits mid-2026.
“Resetting expectations on timing and costs. As we work to quantify uncertainty, we have adopted a more measured approach, postponing start-up by 2 years until Q1/30, to allow time for a fulsome investigation, implementation of security and monitoring programs, a potentially extended hiring period, and to allow volatility in Sinaloa to moderate. Further we increased AISC by US$5/oz over the LOM to account for higher security costs, labour escalation and inflation, while we maintained our discount rate elevated at 8 per cent.”
With his updated financial model and an adjustment to his Panuco valuation, Mr. DeMarco dropped his target for Vizsla shares to $6.50 from $10.50. The average target is $8.71.
Citing Citi’s bullish outlook for copper, equity analyst Alexander Hacking maintained his firm’s “buy” ratings for Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) and Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T) upon assuming coverage, seeing both stocks offering investors “investors exposure to medium-term production growth but with varying levels of jurisdictional and technical risk.”
“Valuations are in line with relative performance vs the peer group, likely driven by execution,” he added.
In a report released on Jan. 29, Citi’s head of metals research Tom Mulqueen said copper prices could rise as high as US$15,000 to US $16,000 per ton, in the coming weeks. However, he warned of growing risks in commodities markets, believing a “growing fundamental disconnect looks unsustainable”
“Copper prices have surged higher, briefly breaching our $14k/t near-term price target, as China investor buying linked to precious metals price momentum and dollar weakness dwarfs soft physical fundamentals and ex-China investor selling,” he said. “We have low near-term price conviction; It is plausible that we see further China investor allocation or rotation into base metals against precious metals upside over the next two weeks; a jump to $15-$16k/t copper does not look implausible in a world of parabolic silver and gold price action. However, our base case is an intensifying physical market pushback to higher prices will still see copper average $13k/t in 2026, sufficient to balance the market physically this year.”
Mr. Hacking set a Street-high target of $41 for Lundin shares, above a previous $32 target. The average is $30.55.
“We see meaningful upside in the current brownfield project and satellite deposits (e.g. Sauva at Chapada and Angelica at Caserones) being scoped while the long-term growth from Vicuna provides a significant uplift to NAV and the stock,” he said. “Downside risks surround execution risk in aforementioned projects and capex overruns.”
For Hudbay, he set a $32.50 target, up from $23 and but below the $34.21 average.
“The stock screens as High Risk based upon our quantitative model, and we assign it a High Risk rating based on its volatility,” he said. “Citi maintains a bullish long-term view on copper. We see more upside than downside from HBM, with organic growth projects from Copper Mountain and Snow Lake. The Copper World project represents an opportunity for HBM step production up to 250kt/a Cu in the long term and in a desirable jurisdiction in our view. This does carry downside risks in terms of potential capital overrruns and execution risk.”
Elsewhere, Canaccord Genuity’s Dalton Baretto raised his Hudbay target to $39 from $35 with a “buy” rating ahead of its Feb. 20 quarterly release.
“We forecast another strong year of FCF generation for HBM,” said Mr. Baretto. “We forecast a modest increase in copper production at all three assets, but a decline in gold production as Pampacancha is now depleted. The loss of Pampacancha will be offset in part by higher production from Manitoba, and we note that gold production from Manitoba is unencumbered, while 50 per cent of gold production from Constancia (and 100 per cent of silver production) is subject to a stream with Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM-TSX| BUY, C$220.00 target, Carey MacRury). We see another year of heavy investment at Copper Mountain, the final year of the three-year turnaround plan presented post-acquisition. At Copper World, we expect a Feasibility Study mid-year, with a potential Final Investment Decision shortly thereafter. We note that our capex estimates includes $210 million in capital for Copper World, $50 million of which is pre-FID and the rest after. Finally, we expect HBM to finally receive its permits and start drilling at the prospective satellite targets in Peru.”
TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil thinks investors’ “muted” reaction to better-than-expected third-quarter 2026 financial results from Rockpoint Gas Storage Inc. (RGSI-T) “was warranted” and he agrees with “management’s characterization in terms of the quarter highlighting the business’s upside optionality.”
“We can appreciate management’s public-facing conservatism given the ongoing nature of its annual open season process that will wrap up at the end of March but feel as though we have enough information to assume further modest improvements to our outlook in the Alberta market,” he explained. “While near-term optimization opportunities related to January’s polar vortex were also downplayed by management, natural gas fundamentals have experienced significant volatility quarter-to-date. In this context, we are increasing our Q4/F26 and F2027 estimates by 2.7 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively, while leaving longer-dated estimates effectively unchanged.”
Shares of the Calgary-based company, which was 2025’s largest Canadian initial public offering with a raise of $704-million in October, rose 0.7 per cent on Tuesday following its premarket quarterly release, which included earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $116.4-million, a 14-per-cent beat versus Mr. MacNeil’s Street-high estimate of $102.4-million and 23 per cent above consensus of $94-million. He attributed the gap to higher-than-anticipated results from its Optimization segment.
Mr. MacNeil said fundamentals for Canadian natural gas storage have improved since his last update, resulting in an increase to his estimates and price target, but he emphasized the company’s reluctance to increase its indicative fiscal 2027 guidance in the wake of the strong quarter and improved market conditions.
“Despite widening Canadian seasonal spreads in recent weeks, management noted that it had already contracted some of its 2027 book prior to recent strength,” he added. “Recall that the company previously disclosed a 5-6-per-cent DCF growth target from higher rates, which it reiterated on the conference call.”
Keeping his “hold” rating for Rockpoint shares, he raised his target by $1 to $30, exceeding the current average by 20 cents.
“Rockpoint’s meaningful commodity price exposure, most notably through the seasonal spread for natural gas, contributed to its outperformance relative to TD Cowen and Consensus Q3/F26 expectations,” Mr. MacNeil concluded. “To this end, natural gas storage fundamentals in Alberta have improved since the IPO, and we continue to believe that Rockpoint offers investors attractive, capital-light near-term growth and a competitive yield. In this context, we are increasing our price target ... with a blended target multiple of 9.94 times, which we believe is reflective of its scorecard ranking that contemplates its high commodity price exposure, relatively lower contributions from contracted cash flows, and many other factors. This price target implies a 5.6-per-cent total return that is largely contributed from its dividend, and, in this context, we believe that Rockpoint is fairly valued at this time.”
Elsewhere, Wells Fargo’s Michael Blum downgraded Rockpoint Gas to “equal weight” from “overweight” with a $30 price target.
“While execution has been solid, we’re downgrading RGSI-CA to Equal Weight from Overweight on valuation. Since IPO, RGSI-CA is up 35 per cent versus 10 pee cent for Canadian peers and 4 per cent for the SPX. We’re raising our PT to C$30/sh to reflect a higher near-term EBITDA forecast,” said Mr. Blum.
Analysts making target adjustments include:
* RBC’s Maurice Choy to $31 from $29 with an “outperform” rating.
“The FQ3/26 results reinforced our overall positive investment thesis on Rockpoint’s stock, including its growing take-or-pay margins (which we believe supports a more predictable base business) and its ability to capture outsized Optimization margins in times of price volatility and disruption (with the generated cash flows being reinvested into growing its asset base). As Rockpoint builds its track record of delivery with the public investors, from financial performance to capital allocation, we see a credible path towards a durable and upward share price valuation re-rating,” said Mr. Choy.
* National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $32 from $31 with an “outperform” rating.
“Looking ahead, a mild winter across Western Canada has given Rockpoint the opportunity to retain higher natural gas inventories, providing visibility to Optimization activities through fQ4/26, while taking advantage of widening seasonal spreads between summer 2026 and winter 2026/2027,” said Mr. Kenny.
* Scotia’s Robert Hope to $33 from $31 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“The results were underpinned by solid performance in the Optimization business, which capitalized on elevated natural gas price volatility, particularly in December. Overall, we see the results as supportive of our view that Rockpoint’s asset base can generate asymmetric cash flow upside in periods of pricing volatility (cold weather, supply/egress disruptions). Management noted that market conditions remain positive, and it provided some constructive commentary regarding its fiscal 2027 outlook. Our 2026 estimates increase largely to reflect the stronger than expected Q3/26 Optimization activities. Our longer term estimates increase slightly to reflect lower operating costs. We continue to have a favourable view of the outlook for natural gas storage demand, which Rockpoint stands to benefit from improved returns on existing assets as well as attractive expansion opportunities,” said Mr. Hope.
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Nate Heywood to $30 from $29 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Overall, we view the update as positive. ... The beat was largely driven by optimization gross margin outperformance, which benefited from elevated gas price volatility (particularly in December). On the call, Management highlighted supportive near-term and long-term fundamentals, including higher storage inventory levels exiting the typical withdrawal season that could put pressure on summer natural gas pricing in western North America, widening seasonal spreads, a core component of natural gas storage rates. Longer-term, Management is still pointing to supportive demand for storage assets from LNG exports, power demand, renewable intermittency, operational disruptions, weather and price volatility. Management also reiterated its plans to deploy capital toward accretive brownfield growth, with updates to come as projects reach FID, but M&A and greenfield development are potential avenues of growth as RGSI keeps a pulse on other geographic regions,” said Mr. Heywood.
While Stifel industrial metals analysts Ralph Profiti and Cole McGill feel 2025 was all about the demand for copper, they now feel 2026 will be “a supply story.”
“We continue to see indications of our ‘legacy asset thesis’ intimating difficulty in supply growth,” they explained. “Over the past decade, copper miners have prioritized capital returns over growth, as sector leverage is the lowest since 2012, with capital expenditures significantly below last cycle peak. The result? The average grade of the Top Twenty copper mines has decreased 9 per cent over the last two decades, requiring accelerating reinvestment per ton of copper production, inherently supportive of the copper price. Despite record copper prices, sector valuations have favoured buying vs building new supply – which doesn’t solve supply (Anglo/Teck), as ‘higher for longer’ is required to support increased incentive pricing.
“Margin expansion has begun to drive multiple expansion. With copper miner cost bases ex labour/royalties not showing obvious signs of upward pressure, we began to see multiple expansion in 2025, with the mid-cap producer space trading up from an average of 0.77 times P/NAV in 1Q25 to 1.21 times P/NAV (consensus) by 4Q25 and are currently trading at 1.24 times. We continue to think margin capture, improving balance sheets, execution and the ATH valuation spread between emerging/U.S. market P/E provides the precedent for sector rotation – especially as the mid- to long-term structural demand thesis is increasingly understood.”
In a client report released before the bell, the analysts raised their 2026 copper price forecast to US$5.85 per pound, up 20 per cent from their previous US$4.85 projection. They increased their 2027/2028 assumption by 20 per cent to US$6 from US$5 with their long-term estimate rising 5.5 per cent to US$4.75 from US$4.50.
“Longer term, we opine emerging markets globally have both historic precedents to increase copper intensive infrastructure spending and the balance sheet room to do so,” they added. “The more moderate balance sheet growth of emerging markets recently provides this firepower; G7 governments are sitting on balance sheets 103 per cent the size of GDP, versus the more paltry 45 per cent exemplified by 30 per cent of the world’s population in emerging markets.”
With their price deck changes, the analyst raised their target prices for copper equities in their coverage universe. For senior producers, their changes are:
- Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T, “buy”) to $20 from $17. The average is $17.78.
- First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T, “buy”) to $47 from $38. Average: $40.81.
- Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX-N, “buy”) to US$76 from US$52. Average: US$58.79.
- Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T, “buy”) to $41 from $28. Average: $34.20.
- Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN-T, “buy”) to $22 from $18. Average: $19.43.
- Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T, “buy”) to $40 from $26. Average: $30.57.
- Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T, “hold”) to $80 from $65. Average: $73.20.
They made one rating revision with Mr. McGill downgrading Foran Mining Corp. (FOM-T) to “hold” from “buy” in response to its deal to be acquired by Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD-T) for $3.8-billion.
His target rose to $6.60 from $5.50, exceeding the average on the Street of $6.05.
The analysts also raised their targets for uranium producers, include:
- Cameco Corp. (CCO-T, “buy”) to $180 from $165. The average is $153.07.
- NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T, “buy”) to $22 from $20. Average: $17.70.
- IsoEnergy Ltd. (ISO-T, “buy”) to $27 from $25. Average: $22.50.
“Significant uncovered requirements are facing U.S. utilities between 2028-2035 and while term contracting volume is gaining momentum, we are still well-below replacement rate,“ they said. ”Unlike supplies in the spot and mid-term markets, which are mainly driven by available inventories, long-term contracts are typically offered by producers and are more closely linked to production costs and are a truer reflection of market supply and demand. The UxC long-term (LT) uranium price began facing upward pressure as additional term utility demand resulted in prices rising from $79/ lb at the beginning of 2025 to its current $88/lb – marking its highest level since May 2008. We expect long-term uranium prices to face additional upward pressure in the next 12 months, particularly given mine production uncertainty beyond the end of the decade.
“We increase our target prices on uranium equities to reflect certain ceiling prices (some above $150/lb, although the range remains broad) exceeding our long-term price of $120/lb. Importantly, prior to the formal addition to the 2025 critical list, President Trump included uranium alongside other critical minerals when directing trade investigations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to address the risks posed by reliance on foreign sources for processed critical minerals, including a national security risk to the U.S. economy and defence preparedness. Commitments to bolstering domestic supply chains for critical minerals and uranium creates the high likelihood of some combination of trade measures, including tariffs, export controls and incentive pricing for domestic production that are higher vs. current price levels, in our view.”
They added: “Our preferred industrial metals picks are: ATEX, Cameco, Capstone, First Quantum, Hudbay, IsoEnergy, NexGen, Taseko, Western Copper & Gold.”
In other analyst actions:
* Ahead of the March 5 release of its fourth-quarter results, Acumen Capital’s Trevor Reynolds raised his Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T) target to $82.25 from $77.25 with a “buy” rating. The average is $82.66.
“After a strong year in 2025 BDGI remains focused on scaling the business while steadily growing revenue and improving margins. With strong tailwinds driven by spending on utilities, gas distribution, infrastructure, power generation, LNG, grid hardening, and data centers to name a few, the outlook remains compelling for BDGI moving forward,” he said.
* In response to a “difficult quarter as expected,” Raymond James’ Steven Li reduced his Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (CMG-T) target to $7 from $10 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $6.50.
“With CMG finalizing a multi-year software licensing agreement with Shell in November, we expect this contract will finally turn organic recurring revenue growth positive in upcoming F4Q26 (after multiple quarters of double-digit declines). For F2027, organic recurring revenue growth is also expected to be positive for the full year (2H >1H). However, model margins are tweaked lower with CMG expanding its M&A team to work on converting more of its full M&A pipeline,” said Mr. Li.
* BMO’s Stephen MacLeod moved his Groupe Dynamite Inc. (GRGD-T) target to $100 from $98 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $98.80.
“Our takeaways from BMO-hosted investor meetings are positive, as we gained a renewed appreciation for Groupe Dynamite’s unique market position and competitive differentiators,” said Mr. MacLeod. “We believe strong comps momentum (40-per-cent two-year stacked FQ4/25E) should continue to be positive for the stock, supported by Groupe Dynamite’s growing brand heat, ability to chase in-season and positioning as a luxury-inspired affordable indulgence. We continue to believe the company is positioned for growth in the North American fast fashion women’s apparel market, and we see several drivers of annual high-teens adj. EBITDA growth.”
* TD Cowen’s Mario Mendonca raised his Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T) target to $354 from $346 with a “buy” rating following the release of better-than-anticipated quarterly results after the bell on Tuesday, while Raymond James’ Stephen Boland cut his target to $310 from $330 with an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $343.89.
“IFC beat our estimate and consensus by 17-18 per cent,” said Mr. Mendonca. “Q4/25 op. EPS $5.50 (up 12 per cent year-over-year) vs. our $4.65 (consensus $4.70). The beat relative to our estimate and consensus reflected lower CAT losses, higher PYD and slightly strong earned premiums. The underlying loss ratio declined slightly year-over-year suggesting no deterioration in core profitability. Solid underlying results and defensive nature support BUY.”
* RBC’s Rob Mann increased his International Petroleum Corp. (IPCO-T) target to $27 from $25, which is the average, with a “sector perform” rating.
“IPC hosted its 2026 Capital Markets Day which delved into the company’s 30,000 bbl/d Blackrod Phase 1 SAGD project as it nears first-oil in the third-quarter of this year alongside IPC’s strategic priorities moving forward. While several milestones at Blackrod remain, we could become more bullish if progress continues into 2027 which could serve as an inflection point for the company as its oil sands production weighting increases meaningfully,” said Mr. Mann.
* Ahead of the Feb. 25 release of its fourth-quarter 2025 results, National Bank’s Ahmed Abdullah increased his target for shares of Leon’s Furniture Ltd. (LNF-T) by $1 to $36 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $32.33.
“On its Nov. 7 call, LFL flagged the strike as a 4Q headwind. With Black Friday on Nov. 28, 2025 (seven days after the strike ended), there was limited time for meaningful flyer circulation - potentially offering a read-through on traffic patterns and the incremental value of print flyers in a digital environment,” said Mr. Abdullah. “Management also noted more moderate 2026 expectations, which we already reflected in our forecast update with 3Q results in November. While the macro backdrop remains uncertain, LFL has limited direct tariff exposure given its Canada-only operations. We estimate LFL’s sourcing mix at 70-per-cent Asia and 10–15 per cent U.S. (with the balance from Canada), and note the company has mitigation strategies in place to manage potential impacts.”
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Chris Murray raised his Mainstreet Equity Corp. (MEQ-T) target to $245 from $240, which is the current average, with an “outperform” rating.
“MEQ reported a solid quarter amid softer rental market conditions with stable rental rates and cost containment offsetting increasing vacancy levels. Management reiterated that its asset positioning, fragmented market conditions, and the structural imbalance for purpose-built rentals remain supportive of its growth outlook while minimizing the potential near-term impact of a normalizing rental market. We see significant value in MEQ at current valuations and would remain buyers given signs of strengthening M&A conditions in 2026, which would be additive to ATBe,” said Mr. Murray.
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Frederico Gomes trimmed his Organigram Global Inc. (OGI-T) target to $3.25 from $3.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $3.41.
“Organigram reported Q1/FY26 results that were a miss on estimates –– largely on the impact of lower international sales stemming from higher flower volumes not meeting international specifications, and lower sales in BC due to an 8-week union strike –– while highlighting the company’s strengthening position on a year-over-year basis (with revenues and margins up materially). Although the company reiterated previous guidance and the headwinds encountered in the quarter were largely temporary in nature (BC volumes are already seeing a strong bounce-back), we believe the continued delay of EU-GMP certification could shift the realization of material international sales growth toward H2/FY26e and into FY2027e. As such, we have conservatively lowered our near-term growth and margin ramp expectations while largely maintaining our longer-term expectations,” said Mr. Gomes.
* BMO’s Jeremy McCrea increased his target for Spartan Delta Corp. (SDE-T) to $11, exceeding the $9.59 average, from $9 with an “outperform” rating.
“Technological advancements have reshaped the economics of the Duvernay, drawing increased investor interest. SDE stood out in 2025 as one of the market’s top performers, up 116 per cent (versus XEG at 14 per cent). With [Tuesday’s] update, the company released preliminary reserves highlighting a 9-per-cent PDP reserve increase, a 145-per-cent Duvernay PDP reserve increase, and a reserve life index of 4.9 years. With much of the year in “build and land acquisition” mode, we expect to see further reserve growth and a recycle ratio that should move higher in the coming years,” said Mr. McCrea.
* In response to better-than-expected third-quarter results, National Bank’s Adam Shine raised his target for Stingray Group Ltd. (RAY.A-T) to $21 from $18 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $18.25.