Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Scotia analyst Mike Rizvanovic downgraded iA Financial Corporation Inc. (IAG-T) to “sector perform” from “sector outperform” following a sizeable miss in its latest quarter.
He termed the miss as “meaningful” for both fourth quarter earnings per share and return on equity, due in part to some adverse seasonality factors and elevated incentive compensation versus a year ago.
“While there were certainly some positive elements in the quarter, results overall were underwhelming relative to what the lifeco’s peers reported, and well below consensus expectations (and our estimate), which admittedly may have been too optimistic heading into earnings season,” Mr. Rizvanovic said in a note to clients.
“While we still believe that IAG has strong upside potential over the longer-term as it continues to focus on its very targeted business mix, we expect the shares to sell-off on the back of Q4 results, and likely remain under a bit of pressure in the absence of any near-term catalysts, particularly given the lifeco’s already healthy P/BV multiple of 2.2x,” he added.
His one-year price target remains C$188.
National Bank Financial, however, lowered its price target to C$181 from C$190 as it reiterated a “sector perform” rating.
The average analyst target is C$182.43, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Desjardins Securities analyst Bryce Adams downgraded Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T) to “hold” from “buy” after disappointing corporate guidance for production, cash costs and capital expenditures. His price target was dropped to C$16 from C$18.
“Consolidated production guidance of 200–230,000 tonnes copper is below our prior estimate and consensus of 244kt, reflecting a softer outlook across all operations, primarily at Mantoverde (89–102kt vs our/consensus of 106kt/111kt) and Pinto Valley (42–48kt vs our/consensus of 61kt/54kt)," Mr. Adams detailed.
Meanwhile, “cash costs guidance of US$2.45–2.75/lb Cu is above our/consensus of US$2.14/lb and US$2.30/lb, primarily due to lower grades at Mantos Blancos and Pinto Valley, along with weaker production and inflationary pressures,” he added.
Total capex guidance of US$783 million exceed the consensus expectation of US$632 million.
The average analyst target is C$17.16.
CIBC analyst Ty Collin upgraded Magna International Inc. (MGA-N, MG-T) to “outperformer” from “neutral” and significantly raised his price target after fourth quarter results and 2026 guidance exceeded his expectations.
“While the outlook for the auto industry remains uncertain, MGA is demonstrating it can generate stronger profitability and cash flow even in a flat production environment, with runway for continued improvement,” Mr. Collin said in a note to clients. “Although Magna may have been a bit slow responding to changing market realities, we believe the company has made meaningful adjustments and is clearly returning its focus to cash flow generation, disciplined capital allocation, and returning capital to shareholders.”
“Our 2026E/2027E forecasts for EBIT rise by 9%/9% and EPS by 18%/16%, representing estimated EPS growth of 23%/18%. We lift our target-setting EBITDA multiple by half a turn (to 5.5x) and P/E multiple by one turn (to 10x),” he added.
The analyst cited five reasons for his new “outperformer” rating.
“1) MGA’s ability to drive margin improvement and strong cash flow even in a flat production environment; 2) a disciplined approach to capital allocation and renewed emphasis on returning capital to shareholders, supported by lower leverage; 3) a stronger launch pipeline in 2026 supporting above-market growth; 4) leadership on key industry megatrends, which provides long-term upside even if less of an emphasis today; and 5) a growing presence within China’s fast-growing auto market.”
His price target went to US$76 from US$56.
“Shares currently trade at 5.6x our 2026 EBITDA estimate vs. MGA’s historical average of 5.3x and peer average at 6x. We believe the positive share-price reaction on Friday reflected multiple expansion in addition to positive earnings revisions, as investors gain more confidence in Magna’s ability to grow earnings and its commitment to disciplined capital allocation,” Mr. Collin added.
The average analyst target is US$62.59.
RBC analyst Josh Wolfson downgraded Eldorado Gold Corp. (EGO-N, ELD-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” but increased his price target to US$48 from US$47 as he introduced pro forma estimates for the company.
“With successful execution across EGO’s key growth projects in 2026, including Skouries, McIlvenna Bay, and Olympias’ expansion, EGO could realize high upcoming free cash flow in 2027+ of >12% at spot and GEO production of 0.9moz,” the analyst projected.
However, nearer term, he views 2026 as “a transition year” for the company where project execution will be important.
“Overall, we view EGO pro forma discounted on a NAV basis at 0.74x at spot and generating high FCF as of 2027+, but facing higher uncertainties over key project deliverables in 2026. Both Skouries and MB are scheduled to deliver first production in 1Q26 and commercial production in mid-2026. At Skouries, construction is 90% complete as of Jan, while at MB, construction is 79% complete as of Nov. In our view, scheduling and financial risks are lower given both project’s advanced stages; however, the achievement of planned ramp-up targets represent key deliverables. Beyond these two growth projects, EGO is also scheduled to complete an Olympias expansion by 4Q26 and is advancing permitting at Perama Hill,” Mr. Wolfson said.
The average analyst price target is US$48.69.
TD Securities now has a “buy” rating on EQB Inc. (EQB-T) after coverage of the stock was transferred at the bank to Mario Mendonca from Graham Ryding. That represents an upgrade from the previous “hold” rating, and the price target was also raised to C$138 from C$103.
“We believe EQB stock will benefit from both a recovery in Return on Equity and a corresponding multiple expansion underpinned by: improving net interest margins, moderating provisions against credit losses (ex. PC Financial), meaningful buybacks, AIRB transition, and integration of PC Financial,” TD said in a note to clients.
“We see EQB as Canada’s only pure-play bank with an opportunity to round out its product offering, continue to scale the platform, introduce new revenue streams, and diversify its customer base. As the bank evolves to look more like a large bank, we believe ROE and multiples should follow,” it added.
The average analyst target is C$117.17.
National Bank Financial analyst Matt Kornack upgraded H&R Real Estate Investment Trust (HR-UN-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform”, believing that the REIT looks fairly inexpensive.
He noted that the REIT’s earnings results were a bit ahead of expectations, with funds from operations per unit, excluding items, of 30 cents coming in ahead of his forecast of 27 cents.
“Operating costs came in lower than anticipated combined with higher fee and other income. The quarter itself was quiet on the disposition front, but that will change in Q1/26 with a sizable amount of expected transaction activity. We expect associated earnings noise, but nonetheless the result is a more thematically streamlined residual portfolio with medium-term earnings upside (U.S. apartments on an eventual turnaround in the supply demand picture and Canadian industrial on a return to more normal occupancy levels). Given a sizable return to a still discounted target price and progress on portfolio streamlining, we are moving to an outperform rating,” Mr. Kornack said in a note.
His price target was nudged up to C$12 from C$11.50. The average analyst target is C$11.75.
Raymond James analyst Brad Sturges downgraded First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCR-UN-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” but modestly raised his price target to C$22.50 from C$21.75.
The move came after First Capital reported fourth-quarter results, which featured funds from operations of 34 cents per unit, up 7% from a year ago and inline with expectations.
Mr. Sturges tied his rating downgrade primarily to the REIT’s total return outperformance in the past 12-plus months compared with peers.
“After a period of P/AFFO multiple expansion, First Capital’s relative valuation has regained its historical P/AFFO multiple premium (i.e. ~4-5x turns) versus its Canadian retail peers. We note that First Capital may face tougher YoY comps after generating very strong operating performance in 2025,” Mr. Sturges said.
The average analyst price target is C$22.45.
Raymond James analyst Michael Barth downgraded Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI-T) to “outperform” from “strong buy” but raised his price target to C$32 from C$30.
He said his estimates and target price were tweaked as a result of Gibson’s Chauvin Infrastructure acquisition but his thesis around the company’s core business remains unchanged.
“Given the strong total shareholder return we’ve seen from GEI over the last 12-24 months, we are downgrading the stock ... although still view the stock as having one of the best risk-adjusted returns in the peer group,” Mr. Barth said.
The average analyst target is C$28.85.
It’s time for Telus Corp. (T-T) to cut its dividend and end its dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP), argues National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine.
Former Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce chief executive Victor Dodig was named CEO of Telus last week, replacing retiring CEO Darren Entwistle in a change of leadership that surprised Bay Street. Many analysts expect the move could signal a change of financial strategy for the company.
“We see how the dividend need not be cut, but the Board at Telus would materially help its incoming CEO set a new path by cutting it sooner than later,” Mr. Shine said in a note to clients.
Telus paused its dividend growth late last year as part of an effort to reduce its leverage, an abrupt change from its previous payout plans after investors and analysts questioned the company’s ability to keep increasing dividends while meeting debt-reduction targets. Telus had said it will not increase its dividend and keep its quarterly payout at its current level until its share price “reflects growth prospects.”
But the stock price has continued to show little upward traction since the dividend hike pause was announced.
“The messaging being heard by the market is that the dividend growth policy was paused because of the pullback in the stock and the 4Q25 call emphasized ‘strong continuity’ in a strategic plan and capital allocation policy approved by the Board just two months earlier. Yet here we are again watching a stock retrace its way toward $18 rather pushing above $20, while volatile markets see fund flows skewing to some areas of safety & yield,” said Mr. Shine.
The National Bank analyst thinks Telus should cut its dividend by at least 30% as well as eliminate its DRIP program after the first half of this year.
“Telus said on Dec. 3 its cash dividend payout on a prospective basis would be ~75% 2026-2028 and ~70% was rate given for 2026 on 4Q25 call. We forecast related ranges of 80%-85% and 85%-88% adjusting for working capital. If dividend was cut 30% and DRIP eliminated, we see payout ex-DRIP 90%, 68% & 58% or 100%, 73% & 63% with working capital, thus putting it in a better position to be raised again in a year or two,” Mr. Shine said.
Mr. Shine maintained an “outperform” rating and C$21 price target on Telus. That’s modestly below the average analyst target of C$21.44.