Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Darko Mihelic saw the first-quarter 2026 financial results from Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) “stronger than expected across the board,” leading to minimal earnings revisions with his core 2027 return on equity estimate reaching the firm’s 14-per-cent-plus target and “implying good core EPS growth (11 per cent in 2027).
Investors took a more cautious initial approach to the release, sending Scotia shares down 0.7 per cent, despite adjusted earnings per share come in at $2.05, exceeding the $1.95 estimate from both Mr. Mihelic and the Street with gains seen across all operating segments, particularly in International Banking (IB) and Global Wealth Management."
“BNS provided a waterfall showing its expected core return on equity (ROE) improvement to achieve its core ROE target of 14-per-cent-plus in 2027 (was 2028) versus its Q1/26 core ROE of 13.0 per cent,” said Mr. Mihelic in a client note. “The bank expects 55-65 basis points of core ROE improvement from Canadian Banking, 10-30 bps from Global Banking and Markets (GBM), Global Wealth Management, and International Banking on a combined basis, and 15-20 basis points from share buybacks.
“BNS stated that its key ROE levers will be improved business mix in Canadian Banking, risk-adjusted margin expansion across Canadian and International Banking, the ongoing rollout of Global Transaction Banking capabilities, and fee income growth and productivity enhancements across the enterprise. We expect a core ROE of 13.9 per cent in 2027, in line with guidance. We believe the significant reliance on improvement in Canada is mostly related to lower PCLs and this aligns with our model.”
In response to the results, Mr. Mihelic increasing his estimates in International Banking and GBM, while his forecast for Canadian Banking and Global Wealth Management rose for 2026 but “slightly” declining in 2027. That led him to bump his core EPS estimate to $8.19 (from $8.05) in 2026 and $9.12 (from $9.08) in 2027.
Maintaining his “sector perform” rating for Scotia shares, Mr. Mihelic raised his target to $106 from $97. The average target on the Street is $106.83, according to LSEG data.
“BNS is trading at the lowest valuations among the group, reflecting its low ROE, struggles to build its Canadian franchise and considerable work required on the International business,” he said. “BNS is trading at the lowest P/B [[price-to-book] multiple in the group of 1.64 times, above its long-term historical average of 1.58 times. While BNS’s valuation looks attractive, our core ROE estimates are lower relative to the group: 13.0 per cent (versus the peer average of 14.0 per cent) in 2026 and 13.9 per cent (versus the peer average of 14.8 per cent) in 2027.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $118 from $112 with a “buy” rating.
“Our key takeaway was the firm’s newly released ROE waterfall, which bridges a very solid 13 per cent delivered in Q1 to the bank’s 14-per-cent target in F27. The improvement is primarily expected to be driven by the Canadian bank with Wealth, Capital Markets, and International together contributing 10-30 basis points. Management highlighted that of the latter three, Wealth is likely to be the most significant contributor with GBM reliant on market conditions and International already outperforming expectations. In terms of capital deployment, BNS noted 10-20bps of buyback contribution, which we view as somewhat conservative. Overall, we view the bank’s 14-per-cent-plus ROE target as highly achievable with our sights now focused on the size of the ‘+’,” said Mr. Lee.
* National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine to $100 from $102 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We adjust our estimates to reflect higher impaired losses, partly offset by lower expenses and higher trading revenues,” said Mr. Dechaine.
* Barclays’ Brian Morton to $108 from $106 with an “equal weight” rating.
“EPS above expectations, driven by better-than-expected NII, fee income and expenses while PCLs and tax rate were above expectations. Looking out, BNS sees 2026 EPS up double digits despite impaired PCLs elevated near-term with its 14-per-cent-plus ROE medium-term objective achievable in 2027,” said Mr. Morton.
* Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young to $107 from $106 with a “hold” rating.
“Cash EPS and adjusted pre-tax, pre-provision (PTPP) earnings were 4 per cent and 6 per cent above our estimate (5 per cent and 7 per cent above consensus), respectively. While a beat, higher-than-expected PCLs and new gross impaired loan formations tempers our view,” said Mr. Young.
* Raymond James’ Stephen Boland to $117 from $114 with an “outperform” rating.
“We continue to view Scotiabank as offering greater ROE expansion potential relative to peers, supported by ongoing funding and NIM improvements, strategic divestitures, growth in fee-based revenue streams, and disciplined expense management supporting positive operating leverage. With shares still trading at roughly a 1.5x P/E discount to peers, we believe Scotiabank can continue to narrow the valuation gap as execution on the revised strategic plan progresses,” said Mr. Boland.
* BMO’s Sohrab Movahedi to $101 from $98 with a “market perform” rating.
“Our Market Perform rating is based on a recently revised strategy which entails a bias for banking the developed markets, away from developing markets. The stock’s peer-leading dividend yield (but highest dividend payout ratio) may be attractive to income-oriented investors; we continue to monitor the bank’s capital allocation framework patiently,” he said.
Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li warns Thursday’s release of the fourth-quarter 2025 financial results from Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-T) is likely to be “noisy” given the inclusion of one month of contributions from its US$2.2-billion takeover of HanesBrands Inc..
However, the equity analyst expects “solid” overall trends, including “an 8-per-cent increase in Activewear sales, a return to growth in Hosiery/Underwear (in line with GIL’s expectation) and EBIT margin increasing 100 basis points, driven by higher gross margins.”
“Inclusive of a US$250-million sales contribution from HBI, we are forecasting sales of US$1.136-billion (vs US$1.150-billion consensus), EBIT of US$243-million (vs US$238-million consensus) and EPS of US$0.95 (in line with consensus),” he added.
Mr. Li thinks investor attention is likely to be largely focus on the Montreal-based clothing maker’s full-year 2026 outlook. He’s currently projecting adjusted earnings per share of US$4.41, which is narrowly lower than the consensus of US$4.50 but “implies a 27-p-cent increase over the mid-point of GIL’s standalone 2025 EPS guidance and is directionally in line with its expectation that EPS growth in the first year will’ meaningfully exceed” the low-20-per-cent three-year CAGR (2026–28)."
“A key driver is 3-per-cent sales growth (4 per cent for GIL and 1 per cent for HBI),” he added. “For Gildan, easy comps for Hosiery/Underwear (down 20 per cent in 2025E) will help but it will be up against tough comps in Activewear (8–9 per cent in 2025E). For HBI, organic sales growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was 0.4 per cent. We are also forecasting EBITDA margin growth of 50 basis points, driven mainly by US$50-million of cost synergies.
“Other relevant updates include HBI integration and synergies. We expect management’s messaging to be that it is off to a good start and it remains confident in achieving more than US$200-million cost synergies over the next three years. We also expect an update on the potential divestiture of Hanes Australia.
Reiterating his “buy” rating for Gildan shares, Mr. Li raised his target to $108 from $95 after moving forward his valuation period to 2027. The average target is $111.55.
“GIL has performed well so far this year (15 per cent year-to-date vs 7 per cent S&P/TSX),” he said. “Despite ongoing macro uncertainties, we believe this reflects strong expected EPS growth this year (27 per cent), partly driven by the HBI acquisition, a positive update on HBI integration/synergies, and potential divestiture of HBI Australia with proceeds used to reduce debt and resume buybacks. We believe GIL’s valuation (16 times forward P/E) is supported by a more than 20-per-cent EPS CAGR [compound annual growth rate] and strong FCF conversion supporting upside to capital return over the longer term.”
TD Cowen analyst John Shao thinks the recently introduced changes to Altus Group Ltd.’s (AIF-T) reporting framework will “bring long-term benefits of improved clarity as it positions [itself] closer to its software/SaaS peers.”
With the release of its largely in-line fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 19, the Toronto-based provider of commercial real estate intelligence introduced Analytics segments, gross profit, and changes to EBITDA adjustments. It led Mr. Shao to predict the adjustments “raise the barrier for investors to evaluate trends in the near-term.”
In a client note released Wednesday, he revised his estimates to align with the moves, emphasizing 2026 revenue growth is likely to be “anchored by software strength, not macro recovery.” He also sees “material margin expansion driven by ongoing cost actions.”
“We model a constant mid-single digit rise in Software ARR year-over-year growth and draw parallels to the 2026 towline guidance at 4–6-per-cent organic growth,” Mr. Shao explained. “Within this category, ARGUS Intelligence remains the key driver with double-digit growth and supported by rising adoption of asset-based pricing and high retention. Key to note, management stated this performance is expected independent of a broader CRE market recovery, with growth expected even in a flat market. Hence, a recovery in broader CRE market volumes we expect signals further potential upside to consensus and our estimates.
“We expect phased EBITDA margin expansion through 2026, benefiting from restructuring and cost-rationalization actions implemented in 2025, ongoing simplification of Altus’ portfolio, and evident operating leverage. This is reflected in our model with EBITDA margin expanding from 18.7 per cent in Q1/26 to 29.1 per cent in Q4/26. We are monitoring continued progress towards the Rule of 40 target (at 32 per cent exiting Q4/25). Apart from the potential benefit from the disposal of lower margin businesses, the G&A line (currently at 23 per cent of revenue) presents the opportunity to generate some additional margin expansions.
Also seeing capital return as a near-term priority, supported by “strong” free cash flow generation and balance sheet flexibility, Mr. Shao reduced his target for Altus shares to $55 from $67, keeping a “buy” rating, to reflect “the recent compression seen across industry multiples due to the broader software weakness. The average target is now $54.
“We rate Altus a BUY, given its dominant position with mission-critical CRE software, growing recurring revenue mix, and global blue-chip customer base to deliver value-added intelligence-as-a-service,” he said. “We believe the company is well-positioned ahead of a potential CRE market recovery, which can accelerate Analytics revenue growth from higher CRE transaction volume and stronger demand for its data and analytics solutions.
Raymond James analyst Luke Davis reaffirmed Topaz Energy Corp. (TPZ-T) as his “top pick in the royalty space” after its fourth-quarter 2025 results “demonstrated the resiliency of its diversified portfolio.”
Shares of the Calgary-based company rose 1.1 per cent on Tuesday after it reported quarterly production volumes of 23,399 barrels of oil equivalent per day, above both Mr. Davis’s estimate of 23,200 barrels and the consensus forecast of 23,100 barrels. Cash flow per share of 52 cents also exceeded expectations (50 cents and 49 cents, respectively).
“Management provided 2026 guidance including royalty volumes of 23.5-23.9 mboe/d and infrastructure/marketing revenue of $92-$94 million,” he added. “While royalty volumes were a snick below our prior estimate of 24.3 mboe/d (but in-line with consensus of 23.7 mboe/d), we would argue this looks conservative but have nonetheless trimmed to the high end of the range.”
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Topaz shares, Mr. Davis increased his target by $1 to $35. The average is $32.50.
“The company’s high margins and 65-70-per-cent dividend payout provide investors with a stable base return with another $75-million of annual excess free cash set to improve the balance sheet and/or fund accretive M&A deals (likely with an infrastructure bias) with management having a well established record of execution,” he said. “We’d reiterate our view that Topaz’s differentiated infrastructure segment underwrites a lower risk profile; meanwhile, we expect its high-quality counterparties to drive 7-per-cent production growth in 2026 - mapping to a peer-leading total return of 11 per cent, including the dividend.”
Elsewhere, other target revisions include:
* CIBC’s Jamie Kubik to $33.50 from $29 with an “outperformer” rating.
“Topaz reported a characteristically steady Q4/25 update, with production and cash flow slightly exceeding estimates. Topaz recorded strong organic reserves growth, led by its heavy oil and natural gas reserves. We are assuming a stronger valuation metric for our price target calculation,” said Mr. Kubik.
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Patrick O’Rourke to $33 from $31 with an “outperform” rating.
“Overall, we view the event as positive, and are increasing our target price ... reflecting continued strength and momentum in the improving liquids profile on the back of robust Clearwater waterflood performance by key operators and NEBC Montney royalty production trends,” said Mr. O’Rourke.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Mike Mueller to $35 from $33 with a “buy” rating.
“Guidance for this year includes royalty volumes of 23,500-23,900 boe/d, in line with our prior estimate of 23,711 boe/d with 27-30 active rigs forecast on TPZ acreage for Q1/26. This reflects annual royalty production growth of 6 per cent while the embedded organic growth potential in TPZ remains a key reason to own the name. The Clearwater and NEBC Montney are the main factors contributing to this growth, with these assets expected to realize 8-10-pr-cent annual organic growth relative to 4-7-per-cent organic growth across the entire portfolio. This growth potential is a direct consequence of a targeted royalty acquisition strategy and underpins our conviction in the stock,” he said.
In a client report titled The Dependables: an ensemble cast that continues to work, Desjardins Securities analyst Chris MacCulloch reaffirmed his positive outlook for shares of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP-T) following its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release, predicting “further operational outperformance supporting multiple expansion as the company executes on growth target.”
“WCP delivered another solid quarter, augmenting its ‘go-to’ status for investors seeking exposure to liquids-rich Montney and Duvernay resource,” he said. “Consistent operational execution and a measured approach to asset development have allowed the company to avoid operational missteps faced by several of its peers, including one of its predecessor entities while delivering modest organic growth. On the conference call, management highlighted that Kaybob is nearly a full year ahead of its production schedule while debottlenecking at Musreau is poised to unlock additional volumes later this year. In our view, the company is already laying the foundation for ‘beat-and-raise’ performance in 2026 after surpassing its 2025 production guidance target by 2 per cent.”
Given the “favourable” backdrop, Mr. MacCulloch now sees the potential for Whitecap to “revisit the M&A arena where it has historically created significant shareholder value.”
“While debt levels are no longer an impediment, with D/CF trending toward the 1.0 times level at current strip prices, we remain skeptical on the likelihood of another larger-scale transaction, particularly in view of recent sector consolidation, which has removed several prospective targets,” he said. “By extension, the current set-up favours an acceleration of share buybacks, which remain our preferred capital allocation route (vs dividends) while keeping the door open to complementary tuck-in acquisitions. Either way, the future appears bright.”
Keeping his “buy” rating for the Calgary-based company’s shares, Mr. MacCulloch raised his target to $15 from $14, emphasizing “the company continues executing on its business plan, currently on pace to achieve over $300-million of annualized synergies from the Veren merger while delivering strong well performance through technical refinements.” The average on the Street is $14.95.
Elsewhere, RBC’s Michael Harvey increased his target to $16 from $14 with an “outperform” rating.
“Whitecap reported quarterly results that were ahead of street estimates, with volumes of 379,606 boe/d (Street: 372,000) driving CFPS of $0.72 (Street: $0.67),” said Mr. Harvey. “Outperformance during the quarter is largely attributable to Gold Creek/Karr. Reserves were announced and were relatively flat year-over-year on a pro forma basis. We maintain our Outperform rating and shift our price target up $2 to $16.00 on continued operational outperformance and increased estimates.”
In other analyst actions:
* In response to “strong Q4/25 results that demonstrated margin expansion and an improved activity outlook,” ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Tim Monachello upgraded PHX Energy Services Corp. (PHX-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” with an $11.75 target, jumping from $8, while BMO’s John Gibson raised his target to $10.50 from $8.50 with an “outperform” rating.. The average on the Street is $9.85.
“We believe PHX’s strong Q4/25 results, improved outlook, and enhanced shareholder return framework should alleviate concerns regarding the sustainability of its regular dividend and could catalyze a positive re-rating, especially amid a broad market rotation that has expanded multiples across the energy services sector in 2026,” Mr. Monachello said.
* National Bank’s Don DeMarco increased his Artemis Gold Inc. (ARTG-X) to $54 from $51.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $55.50.
“This is a follow-up to our first look at Q4/25 with a headline CFPS beat vs. the street, FY25 AISC within guidance range, cash balance higher quarter-over-quarter and dividend announcement reflecting confidence in executing on Phase 1A and EP2. After model updates, our NAVPS eased 1.8 per cent to $45.93 (from $46.79),” he said.
* JPMorgan’s Tathiane Candini initiated coverage on Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO-Q), which voluntarily delisted from the TSX last September, with an “overweight” rating and a US$105 target, exceeding the US$81 average.
* After releasing drill results from its Boumadine deposit in Morocco showed a new parallel structure, Mr. DeMarco increased his Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA-T) target to $35, exceeding the $32.60 average, from $29 with an “outperform” rating (unchanged), seeing it “opening up new exploration potential and hinting at expansion and development synergies with the Main Trend with FS [feasibility study] targeting next year in follow up to the PEA [preliminary economic assessment].”
“We’ve upped our target on the back of (i) an increased carrying value for Boumadine, now 0.75 times of our NPV8% estimate of the PEA mine plan noting that our long-term gold and silver prices are 37 per cent and 51 per cent below current spot, respectively; (ii) increased carrying value for exploration upside and Zgounder resources; and (iii) Aya’s favourable jurisdictional differentiation in Morocco, following recent developments in Mexico,” said Mr. DeMarco.
* TD Cowen’s Sam Damiani increased his Dream Unlimited Corp. (DRM-T) target to $29 from $28 with a “buy” rating. The average is $38.
“All 3 main segments are increasingly reaping the rewards of investments made in prior years,” he said. “Asset Management AUM is growing and fees are being realized sooner. DRM’s land and housing operations are very active across all four AB/SK cities. The IPP portfolio has scaled up and new dev’ts are coming online in rapid succession. In all, NAV is visibly growing, and we see the P/NAV continuing upward.”
* TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding lowered his Element Fleet Management Corp. (EFN-T) target by $1 to $41 with a “buy” rating. The average is $42.50.
“Q4/25 results were modestly below us and consensus. While guidance for 2026 is constructive on an absolute basis, consensus may come down slightly as a result. Originations were softer than expected, while VUM growth is well-received. Our estimates have been revised modestly (generally in line with midpoints of guidance),” said Mr. Ryding.
* National Bank’s Shane Nagle trimmed his Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T) target to $53.50 from $56, keeping a “sector perform” rating, after incorporating its 2026 and preliminary economic assessment for its Furnas Copper-Gold Project in Brazil into his model, while Canaccord Genuity’s Dalton Baretto raised his target to $52 from $48 with a “buy” rating. The average is $47.13.
“Our target has come down modestly largely on account of lower 2026 production. Our Sector Perform rating is based on our cautious long-term outlook given a premium P/NAV valuation and a declining production profile from existing operations in 2029. We expect to see an improvement in the balance sheet ahead of potential development work at Furnas, driven by ramp up at Tucumã and additional gold concentrate sales from Xavantina,” said Mr. Nagle.
* In response to its Feb. 20 announcement of a non-binding letter of intent with BHP to acquire its San Manuel property, which is located next to its Copper Creek project in Arizona, in exchange for 30 per cent of its issued and outstanding common shares, TD Cowen’s Derick Ma resumed coverage of Faraday Copper Corp. (FDY-T) with a “buy” rating and $5.50 target, up from $3.50 previously and above the $5.25 average.
“The proposed transaction opens up a broad range of potential development scenarios for the expanded asset base, which will likely result in enhanced scale and capital efficiency,” said Mr. Ma.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Zachart Weisbrod increased his MCAN Financial Group Corp. (MKP-T) target to $26 from $24 with a “buy” rating. The average is $26.50.
“Though results were below expectations due to greater credit loss provisions, we believe that MCAN’s year-end results underscore robust demand for mortgages, with record origination activity in Q4/25 driven by residential lending,” he said.
* In a note titled Two Quality Assets & Balance Sheet Strength - Buybacks Are So Back!, National Bank’s Travis Wood increased his Ovintiv Inc. (OVV-N, OVV-T) target to US$58 from US$56, exceeding the US$54.25 average, with an “outperform” rating, while Barclays’ Betty Jiang raised her target to US$58 from US$55 with an “overweight” rating.
“In addition to the guidance update, management has outlined a new return of capital framework emphasizing buybacks ($3 billion buyback program authorized),” said Mr. Wood. “While the team highlights its continued commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet; post‑Anadarko closing, the company expects to reach net debt of $3.6 billion (surpassing its previously communicated target of $4 billion). As a result, the team plans to return at least 75 per cent of FCF (as per OVV definition, post capex) to shareholders this year (including dividends, with excess funds earmarked for buybacks which should resume immediately), with long-term returns ranging from 50–100 per cent. We believe the reshaped portfolio meaningfully improves the company’s optionality across buybacks and further M&A”
* National Bank’s Ahmed Abdullah raised his Winpak Ltd. (WPK-T) target by $1 to $49 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We tweaked our forecast to reflect slightly better volume growth, but we do not fully reflect cost saving initiatives quite yet. We await execution to reflect an improved cost structure that presents a more solid degree of recovery from the 2Q trough