Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn called Tuesday’s update from Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T), which included the announcement of a surge in loan losses and the suspension of its dividend, “a clearing event” as the personal lender for subprime shifts into “a full transition over the next several years.”
Shares of the Mississauga-based company plummeted almost 57 per cent after it revealed it will book an incremental $178-million charge for bad loans when it reports fourth-quarter earnings for 2025 at the end of the month, as well as a $55-million writedown for loan interest and fees.
“While the update resets expectations, there remains significant risks to the story,” said Mr. Gloyn. “Management pulled guidance and provided limited detail which leaves investors (and us) with impaired visibility on the outlook and future earnings power of the business.
“Beyond earnings power we see other sources of uncertainty, including: a) whether current allowances (approximately 10 per cent) are sufficient versus management’s expectation for mid-teens net charge-offs, b) stability of loan terms (e.g., cost, collateral) given negotiations with the lending syndicate, and c) risk of shareholder dilution if an equity raise is required to satisfy liquidity or leverage constraints.”
Emphasizing Goeasy flagged “significant” credit deterioration concentrated at LendCare, including expectations for total net charge offs of $331-million in the fourth quarter of 2025, a $55-million write down of loan interest and fees and an $86-million increase in allowances, Mr. Gloyn dropped his estimates for the lender, leading him to downgrade its shares to a “sector perform” rating from “outperform” previously, citing “reduced earnings visibility and elevated uncertainty.”
The analyst is now projecting adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.84 in 2025 (was $15.42), a loss of $1.88 in 2026 (was $18.67), $1.20 in 2027 (was $20.97), and $5.55 in 2028 (new).
“GSY withdrew its previous Q4-25 and 3-year forecasts, noting that net charge offs are expected to be in the mid-teens through 2026,” said Mr. Gloyn. “The update also outlined management’s plan including pivoting growth toward easyfinancial (unsecured loans), materially reducing higher-risk LendCare originations, and targeting $30-million in cost savings. goeasy also suspended the dividend and halted buybacks as it negotiates covenants.”
With those steep declines, he cut his target for Goeasy shares to $50 from $210. The average target on the Street is $178.67, according to LSEG data.
“We also shift our valuation methodology to P/B from P/E,” he explained. “Our price target of $50 (was $210) is based on 1.1 times P/TBV (was 10 times P/E) on our Q4-2026 tangible BVPS estimate of $46. Given a 2-per-cent total return to our target, we reduced our rating to Sector Perform from Outperform. A bear case could see GSY trade as low as HCG and/or EQB during stress periods (60-80 per cent of BVPS). A bull case would see GSY achieve normalization faster than expected, driving P/B back to historical levels well above current multiples.”
Elsewhere, other analysts downgrading Goeasy include:
* RBC Dominion Securities analyst Bart Dziarski to “underperform” from “sector perform” with a $52 target, falling from $156.
“We rate goeasy Underperform as the recent credit reset and balance sheet pressures materially change the company’s growth outlook,” Mr. Dziarski said. “Despite goeasy’s 2-per-cent market share in an attractive TAM implying a long runway of growth ahead, we believe we are past peak ROAs for the business with goeasy increasingly relying on leverage to maintain ROEs in the mid-20s. In our view, the company now faces a difficult path forward as higher charge-offs, covenant pressures, and potential rating agency downgrades weigh on capital flexibility. As a result, we see downside risk to valuation as investors reassess the durability of book value and the company’s ability to stabilize credit performance.”
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Jeff Fenwick to “speculative buy” from “outperform” with a $85 target, down from $185.
“After previously suggesting that problems were not as material as the short-sellers were suggesting, GSY effectively admitted these problems were real and substantial. Bottom-line, it appears that they grew the unit far too quickly, and onboarded a lot of bad loans. We now apply historically low multiples on 2027, at 1.2 times BVPS/6.5 times P/E, which drives an updated target price of $85.00 from $185.00. Given the significantly heightened risk profile, we move to a Speculative Buy recommendation from Outperform,” said Mr. Fenwick.
* BMO’s Étienne Ricard to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $45 target, down from $170.
“GSY’s announcement of much higher-than-expected credit losses raises multiple underwriting, funding and credit questions providing no confidence in earnings forecasts. What happens next? GSY has to demonstrate its ability to secure financing and work on deleveraging plans throughout 2026,” said Mr. Ricard.
* Jefferies’ John Aiken to “hold” from “buy” with a $50 target, down from $194.
Analysts making target revisions include:
Scotia’s Phil Hardie to $68 from $210 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“goeasy stock sold off heavily following what was widely viewed as the bear case scenario playing out, which effectively confirmed investors’ worst fears in the wake of a short report published last fall. We view the development as unambiguously negative for the near-term financial outlook and a major blow to management credibility and investor sentiment. Given limited earnings visibility, we expect a transitional valuation de-rate with investors valuing the stock on P/B basis.
“We have slashed our estimates and target price, but with the stock now trading at just 0.75 times our Q4/25 BVPS estimate we think it appears oversold. The path to a full recovery is likely to take time, but we believe the worst is now behind them. 2026 is likely to be a transitional year as the company incurs an elevated charge-off rate and declining loan balances, but we expect improvements in 2027 with ROE moving to the upper teen range. Additionally, we think current valuation levels are underestimating the potential for take-out by a private equity player,” said Mr. Hardie.
* Raymond James’ Stephen Boland to $77 from $153 with a “market perform” rating.
“Our primary concern is that there may be deeper structural operational issues that could require longer-term remediation,” said Mr. Boland. “Finally, the previous CEO indicated on recent conference all that a key issue was an undersized collections department. We believe the company has limited preventive loss mitigation tools, including GPS and starter-interrupt technology, tools common among other subprime auto lenders.”
* TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding to $44 from $135 with a “hold” rating.
“The earnings outlook has materially weakened; we now forecast modest profitability in 2026 (improvement in 2027), albeit acknowledge earnings are sensitive to net charge offs,” said Mr. Ryding.
“We have updated our Q4/25 forecast (now a loss per share) and materially reduced our 2026/2027 earnings outlook. Management is making changes operationally, but this is likely a heavy lift before the business stabilizes.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to $64 from $200 with a “buy” rating.
“We overhauled our model post GSY’s financial and operational update revealing a 4Q NCO [net charge-off] of $331-million following multiple quarters of credit hiccups, particularly around its auto/powersports loans,” said Mr. Ho. “We reset our expectations assuming no loan book growth over our forecast horizon with elevated NCO/ACL. While we kept our Buy rating given the 29-per-cent return to our $64 target (was $200),the shares may be volatile given index removals, ongoing lender discussions to address covenant issues and the risk of an equity raise.
Following an in-line end to its fiscal 2025, featuring 11-per-cent same-property net operating income gain, Flagship Communities REIT’s (MHC.U-T, MHC.UN-T) valuation “remains overly discounted” despite its better growth profile, according to TD Cowen analyst Jonathan Kelcher.
The Toronto-based REIT, which owns and operates multifamily properties located in the United States, closed 1.7 per cent higher on Tuesday after it reported fully diluted funds from operations per unit of 37.2 US cents, exceeding the Street’s expectation of 36.6 US cents. According to Mr. Kelcher’s calculation, adjusted FFO of 33.8 US cents represents a gain of 21 per cent year-over-year.
“Q4 SPNOI [same-property net operating income] was up 5.9 per cent, down from the Q1-Q3 average of 12.4 per cent owing to a combination of increased lower margin amenity roll-outs (SPNOI margin was down 140 basis points to 66.6 per cent) and some weather impact. While additional amenities aid lease up and add to NOI/lot (a positive), they will weigh on margin expansion” he added. “For 2026 management has put through an average 5.7-per-cent lot rent increase and expects revenue and expense growth to largely match with occupancy gains being additive. Our forecast has 6-per-cent SPNOI growth for 2026. We see upside should management hit the upper end of the 100-200 bps in occupancy gains it is targeting.”
Mr. Kelcher said 2025 was “solid” on the acquisition front with management targeting further growth (US$30-50-million) in the current year, which he thinks is an achievable goal.
“2025 was an active year with $105-million completed (2023: $49-million and 2024: $99-million), including the purchase of four MHCs for $79-million in Q4 in Indiana and Ohio,” he explained. “The Q4 acquisitions were funded with $73-million in supplemental borrowings with Freddie Mac (6.24-6.27-per-cent interest). Management noted $100-$150-million in acquisition capacity on the current balance sheet and that it is currently looking at opportunities. We expect MHC to stay in its existing markets to benefit from economies of scale, and management noted that cap rates remain steady in the 5-per-cent to 7-per-cent range. Our forecast calls for $50-million in acquisitions in 2026 (6-per-cent cap rate, 5.75-per-cent financing cost.”
Maintaining his “buy” rating for Flagship units, Mr. Kelcher raised his target by US$1 to US$24, exceeding the average of $23.63.
“Flagship offers investors exposure to the manufactured housing communities (MHC) market in the U.S.,” he said. “Management has a long operating history in the sector and has demonstrated the ability to increase its lot rents annually while maintaining occupancy, leading to high-single/low-double-digit SPNOI growth (versus the mid- to high-single-digit growth from peers). Combined with a low payout ratio, this should translate into above-average NAV growth. Furthermore, the MHC market in the U.S. remains relatively fragmented, offering Flagship opportunities to expand its portfolio in a market with limited new supply.”
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* RBC’s Jimmy Shan to US$24 from $23 with an “outperform” rating.
“We see MHC’s business as largely shielded from turbulent times and prevailing negative macro factors, owing to its highly visible cash flow (and growth) with 5.7-per-cent rent renewal implemented at start of 2026, its net lease structure (78-per-cent effective NOI margin) and long term fixed rate debt profile (8.2 years),” said Mr. Shan. “MHC has also consistently delivered better than expected results with 2025 FFO/unit growth of 13 per cent well ahead of U.S. peer average of 3 per cent. Our 2026/2027 estimated FFO/unit growth of 9/10 per cent (2021-2025 CAGR 8.6 per cent) also exceed U.S. peer average of 5/6 per cent, all while trading below peers.”
* BMO’s Tom Callagan to US$24 from US$21 with an “outperform” rating.
“Thematically, our positive stance on the MHC story remains intact,” he said. “We see 2026 shaping up for another year of strong earnings growth (circa 10 per cent), with affordability dynamics providing a strong runway thereafter.
“Amid the attractive earnings outlook, a strong management team and solid balance sheet, we believe valuation (12.3 times 2026 FFO, 7.4-per-cent implied cap) continues to screen attractive.”
* Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to US$23.75 from US$23.50 with a “strong buy” rating
“The U.S. MHC sector tends to feature counter-cyclical lot leasing demand characteristics, given the relative housing affordability provided by MHC versus other forms of housing including both rental and homeownership categories. We highlight that Flagship features both above-average cash flow growth prospects, and defensive investment characteristics such as very limited near-term debt maturities (93 per cent of its debt matures after 2029), low financial leverage metrics employed, and below-average interest rate sensitivity when deriving NAV/unit estimates,” said Mr. Sturges.
National Bank Financial analyst Dan Payne says he’s maintaining "high confidence" in CES Energy Solutions Corp.’s (CEU-T) business following better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, predicting “its highly entrenched offering should continue to gain traction through emerging thematics (intensity) plus expanding market share, as unique in an otherwise anemic activity landscape.”
“Bottom line, its high-quality consumable chemicals business should continue to experience customer-driven product adoption, as referenced in recent new business wins, which should see it realize earnings momentum in support of meaningful free cash and a continued cadence of return of capital,” he added.
After the bell on Tuesday, the Calgary-based company reported quarterly revenue of $664.5-million, a gain of 7 per cent sequentially and 10 per cent year-over-year while exceeding the Street’s forecast of $636.1-million. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $113.2-million was increasing of 10 per cent from both periods and also topped the consensus projection of $102.8-million.
“A very strong quarter that reflected the continued strength of the businesses entrenchment and returns, as secular trends continue to be observed through its earnings, as the proportion of specialty chemicals consumed continues to produce growth & operating leverage for the business,” said Mr. Payne.
“Of note, and in support of continued earnings and value momentum, is the fact that these positive earnings trends are the product of multiple sources; a) Market share wins (i.e., in plays like the Haynesville where jobs can be up to 2x more intensive than that of the Permian), b) Recent new business wins (previously referenced large tenders that should begin to contribute in Q4/25), c) Long-term opportunities (like Offshore & Oilsands where it has stakes in the ground beginning to contribute in massive markets), and d) White-space (market share) left by the SLB/CHX transaction. Each of these should continue to contribute to top line growth and operating leverage in support of long-term earnings quality, free cash and return of capital.”
He emphasized CES generated free cash flow of $78.4-million, leading to a 5-10-per-cent yield and “a reflection of the strength of its returns.”
“As a reflection of its confidence in its returns and market opportunity, its capital program is set to trend up 5 per cent year-over-year to $90-million while its dividend has also been positively expanded by 30 per cent (still a 1-2-per-cent cash yield),” he added.
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for its shares, Mr. Payne hiked his target to $20 from $15 to reflect increases to his forecast. The average is $15.47.
Elsewhere, BMO’s John Gibson downgraded CES to “market perform” from “outperform” while raising his target to $20 from $16.
“CES reported record Q4/25 results, as market share gains across both its production chemical and drilling fluid businesses continues. The company remains one of the highest-quality names in our coverage, although with our target valuation now approaching the high-end of the recent ChampionX take-out multiple, we are downgrading the shares,” said Mr. Gibson.
Analysts making target revisions include:
* TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil to $18 from $16 with a “hold” rating.
“CES beat our Q4 EBITDAS estimate by 6 per cent and consensus by 10 per cent as a result of stronger-than-anticipated margins,” he said. “Notably, the company also announced a 29-per-cent increase in its quarterly dividend. As a result of our increased estimates and continued multiple expansion, our PT has increased.”
* RBC’s Keith Mackey to $20 from $14 with an “outperform” rating.
“Looking to 2026, CEU maintains top honours for highest growth metrics in our coverage group, while generating solid FCF. As such, we increase our 2026/27 EBITDAC estimates by 5/4 per cent,” he said.
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Tim Monachello to $19.50 from $16.50 with an “outperform” rating.
“CEU shares are up 45 per cent year-to-date, and its valuation can no-longer be considered attractive on a stand-alone basis. That said, we believe its premium valuation is justified given that operational momentum is undeniable, its FCF generation and earnings record are top-tier, and its upside potential to margins and market share provide opportunities for a step-change to its already robust return profile over the medium-term,” said Mr. Monachello.
National Bank Financial analyst Don DeMarco sees the restart of Pan American Silver Corp.’s (PAAS-T) Escobal mine remaining “one of the most material latent catalysts in the global silver space.”
The Vancouver-based miner acquired the property in a US$1.1-billion acquisition of U.S. competitor Tahoe Resources Inc. in 2018. In July, 2017, the Supreme Court of Guatemala suspended Tahoe’s licence at its Escobal silver mine after ruling local Indigenous populations weren’t adequately consulted before the licence was issued.
“Over the last year, the Guatemala’s Government-led ILO 169 consultation process has delivered incremental progress, however, political and macro tailwinds are emerging, including higher silver prices strengthening g the economic and fiscal case for a restart,” said Mr. DeMarco in a client note.
“On balance, we ascribe a 70-per-cent probability of restart approval over 2026/27, and upon confirmation, estimate a 12-per-cent increase in NAV, and potential for a 20-per-cent uptick in share price. Overall, we see a favourable risk-reward and have moved PAAS to top pick.”
Alongside the boost in net asset value, Mr. DeMarco thinks Pan American’s silver production would get a notable boost, adding approximately 20 million ounces per year and bumping the revenue allocation from the metal to 57 per cent from 43 per cent. He also thinks it would provide valuation tailwinds for the company’s shares.
“Higher percentage of revenue from silver provides scope for an uptick in valuation, noting that Hecla Mining Co. (‘sector perform’, US$28 target, covered by Alex Terentiew) and First Majestic Silver Corp (‘outperform’, $52, Terentiew) deliver 71 per cent and 64 per cent revenue from Ag and trade at a P/NAV of 2.14 times and 2.51 times, respectively, vs. PAAS’s current P/NAV of 0.93 times,” he said.
Reiterating his “outperform” rating for Pan American, Mr. DeMarco raised his target to $116 from $110. The average is $93.64.
“We submit a timeline for a restart at 2026/27, contingent on reaching some form of agreement with Xinka authorities or implementing government-led mitigation measures that address community concerns,” he concluded.
“PAAS continues to manage expectations conservatively with no restart timing is assumed, care & maintenance costs guided for a full year at $16-18-million, and the ILO 169 process is consistently flagged as a material uncertainty in disclosures. Escobal is treated as a catalyst, not a requirement for the investment case, which buffers downside risk from delays while preserving upside optionality.”
Ahead of the release of Boyd Group Services Inc.’s (BYD-T) fourth-quarter 2025 financial results before the bell on March 18, Stifel analyst Daryl Young sees optimism for the year ahead, pointing to a snowy start and improving insurance trends.
“Based on read-throughs from imperfect peers and industry data, we expect a solid Q4/25, with SSSG [same-store sales growth] continuing to inflect positively (we forecast up 3.5 per cent),” he said. “However, the outlook for 2026 will be the key focus, specifically the timing of synergy/run-rate realization from the JHCC [Joe Hudson’s Collision Center] acquisition and any signs of an acceleration of claims recovery trends (plus possible upside from the record winter storm activity in January/February).
“Regarding the broader environment, we are encouraged by continued strength in used car prices, +VMT, and preliminary indications that private passenger auto insurance rates declined for the first time since 2021 in February (with intensifying rate competition between insurers expected). Beyond the macro, we think SSSG will see tailwinds in 2026 from the Mitchell agreement, greenfield shop maturation, and market share, while cost management and operating leverage should boost margins. All-in, 2026 should be a much better year.”
Keeping a “buy” rating for its shares, Mr. Young trimmed his target to $270 from $275 based, in part, on the later-than-expected close of the JHCC acquisition in January versus the original plan for late in the fourth quarter of 2025. The average target is $283.01.
In other analyst actions:
* In response to an Investor Day that projected higher growth than he expected, Scotia Capital’s John Zamparo upgraded Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI-T) to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” with a $32 target, up from $30.
“Perhaps the most compelling aspect was the guide for flattish capex through 2030; we estimate MFI could generate enough FCF to buy back more than 20 per cent of shares by then. There’s more to like as well. As identified last week, MFI’s pricing could coincide with declining input costs. The product portfolio aligns with dietary trends, offering protection against GLP-1s and even immunity to private label expansion. Ultimately, execution will be paramount, and 2025 was relatively positive in that regard. With leverage healthy and no M&A in sight, the near-term should be fruitful for MFI,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* CIBC’s Anita Soni moved her rating for Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T) to “tender” from “neutral” after adjusting her target to $79 from $77. The average is $80.10.
“With the proposed merger with Anglo American (AAL) now approved by the Canadian government, and only two remaining regulatory approvals left (China and South Korea), which could take up to 12 months, the stock now trades largely in line with the AAL share exchange ratio. The company had previously reported Q4/25 production, 2026 guidance, and its three-year outlook for production, largely de-risking the quarter. After rolling forward our DCF, our NAVPS increases from $75.53 to $83.36, while the current implied share price of AAL shares moves to $74.73 (AAL at £33.04, less US$4.19 dividend to AAL shareholders, times a 1.3301 TECK/AAL share exchange ratio)," said Ms. Soni.
* Coming off research restriction following the close of its $62.5-million acquisition of assets in its core area at Simonette, Alta., and a concurrent $70-million equity financing, CIBC’s Christopher Thompson upgraded Logan Energy Corp. (LGN-X) to “outperformer” from “neutral” and raised his target to $1.15 from 95 cents, while National Bank Financial’s Dan Payne increased his target to $1.40 from $1.25, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $1.16.
“We view the acquisition as highly strategic, as it consolidates working interest in the most attractive opportunities in Logan’s portfolio while also being 4-per-cent accretive to cash flow per share. We believe Logan’s production per share and cash flow per share growth in 2027E justify a stronger multiple, and we therefore increase our price target to $1.15 from $0.95, based on 1.2 times our risked NAV, and computing to 6.1 times 2026 estimated EV/DACF. Our revised return to target is 37 per cent, versus the gas-weighted SMID-cap average of 9 per cent, hence we upgrade our rating to Outperformer from Neutral,” said Mr. Thompson.
* Raymond James’ Stephen Boland bumped his Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (AD.UN-T) target to $27 from $26 with an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $25.25.
“Alaris reported a solid 4Q25 driven by a mix of fair value gains across its portfolio and a positive outlook that emphasized a strengthening redemption environment heading into 2026,” he said.
* Following “strong” fiscal 2025 results, Mr. Boland increased his Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T) target to $3,000 from $2,900, maintaining an “outperform” rating.
“Management acknowledged softening in select markets and indicated GPW growth may moderate as underwriting discipline remains the priority,” he said. “FFH can avoid certain business lines and remain nimble due to its diversified platform.
“Slower premium growth should build further excess capital. While insurance profitability is improving, Fairfax’s edge remains its investment portfolio and capital allocation. Over time, this should remain a meaningful driver of earnings, although the timing is lumpy. Capital deployment may include consolidating existing holdings, as seen with Kennedy Wilson, increasing ownership in Allied World and Odyssey, and investing in new non-insurance platforms.”
* In a client note titled Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast, Raymond James’ Luke Davis hiked his Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY-T) target to $27 from $23 with a “market perform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Cameron Bean to $29 from $27 with a “sector outperform” rating and ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Amir Arif to $30 from $27 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $26.
“Peyto posted a solid exit to 2025 with corporate cash flow backstopped by one of the most robust and consistent hedge books in the business, despite an uncharacteristically volatile year for regional gas pricing,” Mr. Davis said. “As a result, we expect M&A will remain topical and believe management is open to tapping into their cost of equity for the right deal - an event we think would be well received by the investment community - though with plenty of portfolio optionality and facility white space, we wouldn’t expect the team to rush into anything that doesn’t fit the mold. Further, the company’s reserve book was again punctuated by some of the strongest recycles in the industry. We like the story but maintain our Market Perform on valuation and would look for a better entry point to add.”
* After its first-quarter EBITDA fell short of expectations, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ David McFadgen trimmed his Transcontinental Inc. (TCL.A-T) target to $27 from $28, which is the average on the Street, with an “outperform” rating.
“We continue to recommend TCL to investors, given its attractive valuation and our optimism around a multiple re-rate on the back of eventual organic growth, likely post some M&A activity,” said Mr. McFadgen