Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Canadian railway companies are poised to benefit from better-than-anticipated volumes, boosted by strong gains in grain shipments, when they report first-quarter 2026 financial results, according to National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen.
“CN’s Q1 RTMs [revenue ton miles] were up 3.0 per cent year-over-year with strength in Q1 from Grain & Fertilizers (up 13.2 per cent), Intermodal (up 3.8 per cent) and Petroleum & Chemicals (up 7.2 per cent),” he said. “CPKC’s RTMs were up 1.9 per cent year-over-year driven mainly by Grain (up 12.3 per cent).
“Overall, Q1 revenue looks to be better than our prior expectations (for CN especially) but both railroads face some headwinds in the quarter from the fuel surcharge lag and a less favourable revenue mix. We have made only minor adjustments to our full-year forecast for CN and CPKC, but we are increasing our targets on both stocks as we increase our valuation multiples to reflect peer group multiple expansion.”
In a client note released Wednesday, Mr. Doerksen said he continues to “slightly” favour Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T) over peer Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) from an investing perspective.
“We believe both CN and CPKC are on track to meet their full-year 2026 guidances outlined in January, but some caution on the rail stocks is warranted,” he explained. “Firstly, if the recent dramatic increase in fuel price is sustained for more than a short timeframe, there is a growing risk that broader economic growth slows, with possible implications for rail volumes in North America. Secondly, with USMCA renegotiation on tap, risk around trade and tariffs will likely remain a headwind for sentiment/valuations for CN and CPKC until there is more clarity on any trade pact changes.
“We prefer CPKC over CN due to its superior earnings growth outlook and our view that CN shares could be more impacted by trade-related risk/sentiment. On our updated 2026 forecast, CN shares trade at 19.9 times P/E [price-to-earnings] while CPKC trades at 22.3 times versus the U.S. peer group at 22.7 times on average.”
Maintaining his “outperform” recommendation for CPKC shares, Mr. Doerksen raised his target to $125 from $119. The average target on the Street is $127.01, according to LSEG data.
“We maintain our Outperform rating on CPKC shares as we see superior growth supported by new business wins in the coming years that likely will manifest regardless of the broader economy,” he said. “CPKC also has a large Canada-U.S. transborder book of business (approximately 21 per cent of revenue) but as noted, we are currently feeling more confident in a positive trade outcome between the U.S. and Mexico that will result in still solid growth in CPKC’s U.S.-Mexico book of business (17 per cent of revenue last year). Finally, with the stock also trading at a slight discount to the U.S. peer average, relative valuation is also attractive.”
His target for CN shares rose to $164 from $147 with an unchanged “sector perform” rating. The average is $154.29.
“While the stock’s valuation is relatively inexpensive, we still expect 2026 volume and earnings growth to be modest,” said Mr. Doerksen. “CN also has a large exposure to consumer-driven volumes (intermodal, housing-related) so a slowdown in the broader economy triggered by high fuel costs could impact CN’s book of business. Finally, although both Canadian railroads have exposure to cross border trade that would be impacted by USMCA changes, the early indications are that U.S. talks with Mexico on trade are more advanced than with Canada (and the U.S. Administration has seemingly taken a more combative approach to trade with Canada than with Mexico). As such, with 29 per cent of revenue tied to transborder volumes (most of which is Canada-U.S.), the risk for CN around the USMCA outcome is arguably greater than is the case for CPKC.”
TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison sees the United States’ amended Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper imports representing a “major expense headwind” for BRP Inc. (DOO-T), which he thinks hurts the Valcourt, Que.-based company “more than peers due to its ORV/Snow production in Mexico/Canada.”
Late Tuesday, the Ski-Doo maker suspended its financial forecast for the coming fiscal year, warning it faces an estimated hit worth several hundred millions dollars from the changes the U.S. has made to its tariff policy. The adjustments include a 25-per-cent levy on the total value of its snowmobiles sold into the U.S. and also affects the majority of its offroad vehicle models sold into the country.
“We believe available levers to BRP will not offset a large component of this impact, and that the next data point to gain visibility on this major headwind is within a USMCA renegotiation,” he said.
“We believe levers such as pricing/cost mitigation can be employed, but pricing could also lead to a negative impact on market share. On a net basis, we ballpark this could impact BRP’s F2027 EBITDA by $350-million. We stress the impact could change dramatically within a USMCA renegotiation, but visibility is opaque at this time.”
Given that significant obstacle, Mr. Morrison downgraded BRP to “hold” from “buy” previously.
“Financial revisions imply a potential $30-$40 share-price decline,” he said. “We dislike knee-jerk reactions to our recommendation, but pre-release our return was below our required hurdle, the magnitude of the impact is material, and visibility to the amendment changing is limited. This in turn leads to a lowering of our financial forecasts and warrants lowering our rating/target to HOLD/$84.00. Should BRP trade in the ~$70 range, we see value. Our updated financial forecasts account for the impact of the tariff amendment, as channel checks support our view that wholesale/retail were tracking company expectations. We firmly believe BRP will not make long-term capital decisions without improved tariff certainty.”
The analyst dropped his target to a Street-low of $84 from $119. The average is $115.99.
“BRP remains an industry leader with a strong management team and a track record of generating positive free cash flow through downturns, reinvesting in innovation, new products, and cost efficiencies,” Mr. Morrison added. “The normalization of industry inventory levels continues to support an attractive base level of earnings. However, the amendment to Section 232 tariffs introduces a material headwind with limited visibility on potential relief. Given the magnitude of the impact, we are lowering our financial forecasts and reducing our rating.”
Elsewhere, Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan dropped BRP to “hold” from “buy” with a $90 target, falling from $118.
“Given management’s H1/F27 visibility is largely locked in through dealer orders and retail commitments, we believe mitigation measures (e.g., pricing actions, supply chain adjustments, and component re-sourcing) are more likely to manifest in H2/F27,” said Mr. Hannan. “As a result, we have incorporated the brunt of the impact in the first half of the year and expect BRP will eventually able to offset approximately half of the $500 million impact. Accordingly, we are lowering our full-year estimates to reflect the incremental pressure from tariffs.
“Notably, management did not withdraw BRP’s M28 target of $8.00 EPS by F2028, now hinging on two variables outside management’s control, which are (1) the longevity of the current Section 232 regime, and (2) the pace/magnitude of BRP’s operational mitigation. We see the upcoming USMCA review as a potential catalyst for a structural reset of the derivative-article tariff framework, which could partially restore the prior earnings trajectory. Over the longer term, BRP’s ongoing international diversification (expanding revenues outside the US tariff perimeter) provides an additional, if gradual, offset. In the interim, however, we have revised our F2028 estimates downward to reflect both demand destruction from higher retail prices passed through to consumers and sustained margin compression from the incremental tariff burden. All told, at the risk of stating the obvious, the high degree of uncertainty introduced by the tariff changes should lead to near-term multiple compression, in our view.”
With the first quarter already being “seasonally weak” for Canadian heavy equipment dealers, TD Cowen analyst Cherilyn Radbourne warns near-term results could be even more “choppy,” however she sees the market “primarily underwriting the group’s 2027/2028+ earnings power (nation-building infra, mining strength, data centers, etc.).”
“We think short-term earnings will be de-emphasized, provided bookings/backlog and management commentary remain supportive of that narrative,” she said in a client note.
“Strong new equipment sales (2020-2025) will drive a future product support annuity, albeit with a 2-3-yr lag. Prime Minister Carney now has a majority gov’t backing his nation-building agenda and high energy prices could accelerate plans to diversify Canada’s exports. Opportunities in power are plentiful, spanning data center development, dist’d generation/grid support, natural gas as a transition fuel, etc. Key commodity prices are historically high (copper - Finning/gold - Toromont), and while AI can offer considerable efficiency, it is a long way from replacing skilled technicians/mechanics.”
Ms. Radbourne argues “macro uncertainty would typically favor” Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T) over Finning International Inc. (FTT-T) from an investment perspective. However, she prefers the latter “based on relative valuation and more obvious 2026 catalysts (new mines in Argentina, data center development in AB/SK).”
“We have lowered our Q1/26 EPS estimate for Finning to $0.96 vs. $1.00 based on higher stock-based comp,” she continued. “Macro uncertainty would typically dictate Toromont>Finning, but Finning is our top pick in the group, based on relative val’n, strong prospects in copper, and a slightly western tilt to the first tier of nation-building projects. Potential catalysts include new mine FIDs in Argentina and data center development in AB/SK. We highlight the expected retirement of 797 trucks in Chile based on recent 798 deliveries. Alberta-based Heavy Metal Equipment & Rentals has purchased 19 797s from BHP in Chile: some will move to Canada; the rest will stay in Chile. The trucks will remain with Finning customers, but there could be a short-term blip in product support as the transition occurs.
“Our Q1/26 EPS estimate for Toromont is stable at $1.05, which is modestly below consensus of $1.08. Q1/26 will include one extra month of AVL vs. Q1/25. Earnings should lift, as AVL backlog amortization expires (2025 EPS impact of approximately $0.80), depending on how that is backfilled by dividends to the 40-per-cent owners.”
With those forecast adjustments, Ms. Radbourne raised her targets for Finning and Toromont shares to $106 and $232, respectively, from $104 and $228, keeping “buy” ratings for both. The averages on the Street are $103.20 and $210.29.
She also raised her target for “hold”-rated Wajax Corp. (WJX-T) by $1 to $35, exceeding the $34.75 average.
“We have slightly increased our Q1/26 EPS estimate for Wajax to $0.70, vs. $0.67, based on minor SG&A tweaks. We are 5 per cent below consensus as the Street’s gross margin assumption seems overly optimistic,” she said.
Heading into first-quarter earnings season for base metals producers, National Bank Financial analysts Shane Nagle and Rabi Nizami warn copper price volatility is likely to persist given the “uncertain” macroeconomic outlook.
“With no clear resolution in sight for ongoing conflict in the Middle East, we continue to see potential for a negative impact on copper demand in the region as well as slower global growth stemming from persistent inflation,” they said. “The unclear outlook builds on already challenged manufacturing growth and declining Chinese property sector. Copper prices have reacted favorably in recent days to fears of sulfuric acid shortages in Africa, SX/EW production in the region represents 5 per cent of global copper supply and while not all production is expected to be impacted by acid availability, we could see a supply impact of a few hundred thousand tonnes for the year. We continue to see an improving supply outlook with ramp-up and sanctioning of several projects in H2/26.”
In a client report released before the bell, the analysts said they expect the impact of higher diesel/consumables are likely to have a “minimal” impact on first-quarter operating results, noting many companies are restocking fuel for consumption later in the year at elevated prices.
“Thus far, we don’t foresee any critical shortfalls of supply within our coverage but do account for higher diesel prices/costs through the remainder of the year into 2026,” they added.
The duo also updated their metal price assumptions to “better align with current spot prices.”
“We continue to anticipate an improving supply picture on the copper side as we exit 2026 and have left our 2027+ price estimates unchanged,” they said. “For the remainder of the metals, we have modestly adjusted 2026 and 2027 prices closer to spot, while leaving our longer-term assumptions unchanged. We maintain our long-term copper price forecast of US$4.40/lb.
With those adjustments, the analysts made a series of target price adjustments to stocks in their coverage universe. They are:
- Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS-T, “outperform”) to $57.50 from $55. The average target on the Street is $49.
- Arizona Metals Corp. (AMC-T, “outperform”) to 90 cents from $1. Average: $1.50.
- Bravo Mining Corp. (BRVO-X, “outperform”) to $7.50 from $7.75. Average: $5.
- Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T, “outperform”) to $15 from $17. Average: $16.71.
- Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T, “sector perform”) to $50 from $53.50. Average: $48.96.
- Faraday Copper Corp. (FDY-T, “outperform”) to $5.75 from $5.50. Average: $5.33.
- Ivanhoe Electric Inc. (IE-T, “outperform”) to $30 from $33. Average: $28.92.
- Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T, “sector perform”) to $43.50 from $42. Average: $37.65.
- Marimaca Copper Corp. (MARI-T, “outperform”) to $14 from $15. Average: $15.52.
- Osisko Metals Inc. (OM-T, “outperform”) to $2 from $1.50. Average: $2.08.
- Pecoy Copper Corp. (PCU-X, “outperform”) to $2.75 from $2.50. Average: $3.
- Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T, “sector perform”) to $90 from $85. Average: $80.71.
- Trilogy Metals Corp. (TMQ-T, “sector perform”) to $7.50 from $9.50. Average: $8.
“CS, ERO and TKO have the highest leverage to copper prices while CS, ERO and TECK/B screen favorably in terms of valuation across more volatile copper prices through 2026,” the analyst note.
Mining analysts at Stifel forecast “another quarter of robust margin expansion” for metals companies as “both gold and copper equities were driven by underlying prices surging past 2025 closing levels to hit new highs in early-2026 and record quarterly average prices (gold: up 17.4 per cent quarter-over-quarter; copper: up 15.5 per cent quarter-over-quarter).”
“Q1/26 is slated to be the sector’s softest production period serving as a trough-quarter for the year due to planned mine sequencing, lower grades and new project and expansion ramp-ups over 2026,” they added. “We also forecast Q1/26 as the weakest quarter for free cash flow due to the lowest production, lower quarterly average metals prices vs. our average price forecasts for 2026 and advancements of taxes payable and seasonal negative working capital adjustments.”
In a report released on Wednesday, the analysts called senior gold producers thie “blue-chip anchors” while intermediate & mid-tier producers are preferred for growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) exposure.
“We believe well-capitalized, growth-oriented, intermediate (0.5-2.0Moz/year) and mid-tier (0.1-0.5Moz/year) gold producers are best positioned to offer a compelling risk‑reward trade-off on relative valuation, leverage to higher gold prices, upside to reserves life, exploration catalysts and M&A re-rating potential,“ they said. ”We estimate intermediate and mid-tier gold producers are trading at a P/NAV of 0.71 times and a 21-per-cent discount vs. senior gold producers (more than 2.0Moz/year) compared to the historical average discount of 32 per cent.
“We favour copper producers with strong gold by-product exposure and those long sulphuric acid. We believe the copper mining industry is entering a prosperity-phase where continuing supply disruptions to existing mines and a lack of adequate response to bring on new supply after 2028 sees prices relative to current levels more likely to surprise to the upside, established industry participants react slowly to build new capacity relative to previous cycles, established mining districts face tougher regulatory hurdles and new entrants emerge during the early stages of a “company-making” phase of the cycle. In our view, the next cycle is likely to drive margin upgrades and encourage management and consensus estimates to reconsider long-term commodity assumptions that are currently too low to justify a reasonable risk-adjusted return of 15 per cent.“
Also seeing M&A activity “back on the menu,” the analysts made a one rating revision, , downgrading G2 Goldfields Inc. (GTWO-T) to “hold” from “buy” to reflect its friendly takeover $3-billion offer from G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN-T) with a $10.84 target, up from $8.50 but below the $11.08 average on the Street.
Their other target revisions are:
- First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T, “buy”) to $52 from $47. Average: $43.04.
- Koryx Copper Inc. (KRY-X, “buy”) to $4.50 from $4.25. Average: $4.88.
- Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-T, “buy”) to $18 from $16. Average: $17.
- Meridian Mining PLC (MNO-T, “buy”) to $3 from $2.50. Average: $2.50.
- OR Royalties Inc. (OR-T, “buy”) to $71 from $70. Average: $72.17.
- Silver Tiger Metals Inc. (SLVR-T, “buy”) to $2 from $1.70. Average: $1.70.
- Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM-T, “buy”) to $250 from $240. Average: $243.36.
“Our preferred sector picks are: Agnico, Alamos, Aya Gold & Silver, Barrick, DPM Metals, Endeavour Mining, Equinox Gold, First Quantum, G Mining, Hudbay, IsoEnergy, Koryx Copper, K92, Kinross, Meridian Mining, Montage, NexGen, Omai Gold, Orla, OR Royalties, Southern Cross, Taseko, Western Copper & Gold, Wheaton PM,” they concluded.
In other analyst actions:
* BMO’s Joel Jackson lowered Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (CHE.UN-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $18.50 target (unchanged). The average on the Street is $18.80.
“Post a surprising narrow council vote against Chemtrade’s North Vancouver (chlorine liquefaction) rezoning approval, our rating lowers to Market Perform (maintaining $18.50 target price),” he said. “More predictable earnings, index inclusion, rezoning approval, and valuation catch-up to U.S. commodity chems peers were key catalysts for continued outperformance by CHE.
“However, with uncertainty now around the path forward at North Van (perhaps generating approximately $100-150-million EBITDA) beyond 2030 (understanding CHE still has some options), we move to the sidelines, awaiting more clarity.”
* After its first-quarter results fell short of expectations, Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho lowered his AGF Management Ltd. (AGF.B-T) target by $1 to $20, keeping a “buy” rating, while Scotia’s Phil Hardie reduced his target to $18 from $20 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $20.40.
“Investors reacted negatively to AGF’s Q1/26 results that saw disappointing earnings, an unexpected write-down in its proprietary investments, and softer-than-expected retail flows. Following a strong multi-year run, AGF sold off more than ~15% as weaker than expected results combined with lingering market uncertainties drove a more cautionary tone and tempered near-term outlook for the stock. On the more constructive side, AGF continued to generate flows through the SMA channel and reached a resolution of the Kensington PE fund redemption freeze. We cut our 2026E and 2027E forecast reflecting a downward revision to our management fee assumption given weaker-than-expected margins in the quarter,” said Mr. Hardie.
* In response to Tuesday’s premarket release of “soft” second-quarter 2026 financial results, which sent its shares falling 5.6 per cent during the trading session, National Bank’s Ahmed Abdullah trimmed his target for shares of Toronto-based Blue Ant Media Corp. (BAMI-T) to $10.50 from $11, keeping an “outperform” rating, while ATB Cormark’s David McFadgen cut his target by $1 to $18.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average target is $15.25.
“On its conference call, BAMI noted that the ad market remains soft due to macro uncertainty, which has stepped up since the end of February on heightened global geopolitical tensions and reduced consumer confidence,” said Mr. Abdullah. “For BAMI, the biggest impact is felt across Canadian linear TV advertising which continues to be weak. On the streaming side, there is a disconnect between rapidly growing viewership across FAST and other connected TV formats and a lagging advertising demand which is leading to depressed CPMs (partially explained by the elevated supply). BAMI expects this imbalance to gradually correct as ad dollars migrate towards audiences, but timing is uncertain.”
* Scotia’s Himanshu Gupta moved his Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI-Q, CIGI-T) target to US$150 from US$155 with a “sector outperform” rating, noting “AI-disruption risk is keeping a lid on the valuation multiple.” The average is US$169.52.
“We think CIGI’s Engineering exposure provides strong cash flow visibility, mid to high single digit organic growth potential, and scope for incremental M&A. However, CIGI lacks a competitive moat in engineering on a relative basis (Real Estate Services - it is ranked top #3 or #4 globally), and offers limited synergies with other segments. CIGI’s Engineering at 14-per-cent EBITDA margins vs peers at 16 per cent to 18 per cent - scope for margin expansion over time with scale,” said Mr. Gupta.
* Following Tuesday’s close of its acquisition of Foran Mining Corp., National Bank’s Don DeMarco raised his target for Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD-T) to $70 from $63 with an “outperform” rating after coming off research restriction. The average is $69.03.
“This transaction transfers possession of the 100-per-cent owned Mcllvena Bay Project in Saskatchewan, a high-quality, long-life asset in a premier mining jurisdiction, further strengthening the balance and resilience of ELD’s existing asset base. We model a NAVPS allocation of 35-per-cent Canada, 41-per-cent Greece, 21-per-cent Turkiye (was 29 per cent, 50 per cent, 31 per cent),” he said.
* Raymond James’ Michael Glen lowered his target for High Liner Foods Inc. (HLF-T) to $15 from $17 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $17.50.
“We are making adjustments to our forecast to reflect a recent corporate update that included organizational changes,” he said. “These changes were designed to reduce the company’s cost structure given current market conditions. With the announcement came the termination of 35 corporate employees (approximately 9 per cent of North American office workforce). The company stated these changes are an adjustment to current macro and industrial pressures which include higher inflation, tariffs, as well as higher input costs. Regarding the outlook, F1Q results are projected to come in ‘modestly below’ the prior year period with earnings pressured by a combination of promotional intensity, rising input and commodity costs, and tighter supply conditions. As a result, the anticipated profitability recovery has shifted to 2H, with HLF still targeting overall adjusted EBITDA growth for the full year.”
* Following its Investor Day event and the announcement of targets for the second iteration of its Savaria 1 program, Mr. Glen raised his Savaria Corp. (SIS-T) target to $33 from $32, which is the average on the Street, with an “outperform” rating. Others making changes include: TD Cowen’s Derek Lessard to $35 from $31 with a “buy” rating and ATB Cormark’s Kyle McPhee to $35 from $32 with an “outperform” rating.
“Putting everything together, given execution and track record associated with Savaria One, we believe that as investors work through the math and growth algorithm offered, they will see the value opportunity in the shares, and pullbacks will be quickly bought,” said Mr. Glen.”