Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Citi analyst Tyler Radke says he came away from Shopify Inc.’s (SHOP-Q, SHOP-T) first-quarter results “remaining positive on the company’s momentum and ability to drive continued share gains amidst agentic commerce tailwinds.”
“We view 2Q guidance as prudent and the pullback in shares as a buying opportunity, with key geography North America seeing accelerating growth,” he said in a client note. “The company continues to show momentum across upmarket merchant acquisition (GMV from merchants more than $100-million nearly doubling over two years), international (GMV up 45 per cent year-over-year to 16 per cent of total), and B2B momentum (up 80 per cent year-over-year).”
Despite that optimistic view, Mr. Radke was one of several analysts on the Street to reduce their expectations for the Ottawa-based e-commerce giant following Tuesday’s pre-market release, which sent its shares falling more than 15 per cent on Tuesday. Concerns centred on a forecast for slowing revenue and profit growth for the current quarter, overshadowing a beat on most analyst projections for the first three months of the year.
“Management’s outlook for gross profit growth year-over-year in the mid-twenties and a decrease in GAAP opex as a percentage of sales of down roughly 200 bps year-over-year were both slightly below our expectations and likely weigh on shares amidst continued momentum on the top line,” he said.
“Based on our analysis, we’re estimating 2Q gross margin around 47 per cent along with non-GAAP operating margin of 16 per cent. The company expects 2Q sales growth in the high-twenties year-over-year, which we see as reasonable given tougher comparisons to last year, and with similar strong execution, wouldn’t be surprised to see the company deliver top-line growth above 30 per cent next quarter. FCF margin appears likely to receive a roughly 0.5 percentage point tailwind from accounting changes related to merchant cash advances.”
While he applauded Shopify’s sales growth of 34 per cent year-over-year along with gross merchandise volume growth of 35 per cent, which led to a revenue beat, Mr. Radke cut his target for its shares to US$156 from US$163 after raising his operating expense expense expectations. The average target on the Street is US$161.26, according to LSEG data.
“We rate Shopify shares as Buy/High Risk (1H),” he noted. “Our confidence is underpinned by continued commerce share gains internationally, offline and upmarket. Our deep-dive analysis into SHOP’s Merchant Solutions business gives us confidence in SHOP’s long-term growth as we expect take-rate expansion to accelerate in 2025+, fueled by increasing payments penetration as well as new product/feature adoption.”
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* Barclays’ Trevor Young to US$126 from US$130 with an “equal-weight” rating.
* Piper Sandler’s James Callahan to US$150 from US$165 with an “overweight” rating.
* DA Davidson’s Gil Luria to US$140 from US$195 with a “buy” rating.
* Jefferies’ Samad Samana to US$140 from US$150 with a “hold” rating.
* Citizens’ Andrew Boone to US$150 from US$160 with a “market outperform” rating.
Citing an “improving” free cash flow outlook through the third quarter, “limited risks from elevated diesel prices relative to peers” and a “more compelling” valuation, National Bank Financial analyst Shane Nagle upgraded Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T) to an “outperform” rating from “sector perform” following the release of in-line first-quarter results.
After the bell on Monday, the Vancouver-based company reported quarterly EBITDA of US$125.2-million, exceeding both Mr. Nagle’s US$108.0-million estimate and the Street’s US$124.8-million projection due primarily to higher sales volumes as well as lower corporate expenses. Adjusted earnings per share of 69 US cents also topped expectations (40 US cents and 60 US cents, respectively).
"Ero maintained 2026 copper guidance of 67,500–77,500 tons (NBCM: 72,500 tons),“ said Mr. Nagle. ”Consolidated C1 cash costs are expected to be between US$2.15-US$2.35/lb (NBCM: US$2.36/lb). The company remains somewhat insulated from ongoing inflationary pressures driven by unrest in the Middle East as diesel prices are set in Brazil by Petrobras. Ero sees a modest US$0.05-US$0.10/lb impact to costs partially offset by higher by-product credits for the year (accounted for in NBCM Estimates).
“Ero ended Q1/26 with US$91.2-million in cash, working capital of US$66.2-millionand US$542.7-million in long-term debt (ND/EBITDA of 1.0 times). The company has available liquidity of US$146.2-million, which includes US$55.0-million of undrawn amounts under its Senior Secured revolving credit facility. We model leverage decreasing to below 0.50 times by Q4/26 driven by additional gold concentrate sales from Xavantina and continued ramp-up of Tucumã.”
Following the results, Mr. Nagle sees Ero trading in line with peers and emphasized “the potential for positive FCF generation through Q2/Q3 aided by increased gold in concentrate sales.”
“With a strong balance sheet, the Company may be able to address our modelled declining production profile into 2029, ahead of potential development work at Furnas,” he added.
The analyst reaffirmed a $50 target for Ero shares. The average on the Street is $47.29.
“Ero shares are up 55 per cent since we downgraded to S/P on July 8 (down 25 per cent from our Q1 preview in mid-April), 2025, compared to TSX Base Metals Index up 64 per cent over the same period (down 8 per cent from mid-April),” he noted.
TD Cowen analyst Mario Mendonca downgraded his rating iA Financial Corp. Inc. (IAG-T) following its first-quarter results, pointing to its valuation and seeing “better upside” in large-cap insurance companies.
“Core EPS was lower than expected reflecting experience losses and slightly higher share count,” he said. “Wealth Management momentum (earnings/flows & RF deal) remains strong, while US results were softer (experience losses were surprisingly high). ROE and capital flexibility remain solid. While this was a good quarter (raised div. by 11 per cent), we expected IAG to easily beat estimates after delivering a very weak Q4/25 result.”
After the bell on Tuesday, the Quebec City-based company reported core earnings per share for the quarter of $3.25, up 12 per cent year-over-year but below the estimate of both Mr. Mendonca ($3.28) and the Street ($3.26). He attributed the miss to “experience losses (above) and lower core non-insurance activities (higher expenses in CAD insurance), partially offset by good growth in S.T. insurance business (home/auto, dealer services).”
“Sales momentum was mixed: Canada individual & group insurance sales drop 2 per cent and were up 2 per cent, respectively (new business strain was elevated in group), while P&C sales grew 6 per cent year-over-year (unit growth and pricing),” said Mr. Mendonca. “Canadian and U.S. dealer services sales increased 7 per cent and were down 14 per cent year-over-year, respectively. U.S. dealer services sales were elevated in Q1/25 as demand was pulled forward. Auto sales should slow as tariffs affect newer inventories. US insurance sales remain strong, up 16 per cent year-over-year in US$. In WM, segregated funds net flows reached nearly $1.5-billion (record). Mutual funds net flows were modestly negative.”
“Earnings quality was weak. Reported earnings were 54 per cent lower than core earnings. Market-related items were significant ($87-million loss) reflecting equity (private & public) and infrastructure charges and other specified charges were $44-million (2025 tax item). Investment property charges were in line ($10-million vs forecast $10-million). We forecast investment property charges declining in ’26.”
Largely maintaining his forecast, Mr. Mendonca cut his target for IA shares to $190 from $193. The average is $179.83.
Elsewhere, National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine, trimmed his target to $179 from $181 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We are slightly reducing our forecast to reflect the net of higher buybacks offset by lower non-insurance results and a higher tax rate,” said Mr. Dechaine.
Pointing to early-stage signs of improving crop price fundamentals as well as rising nitrogen-phosphorus-potassium (NPK) fertilizer prices, Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen upgraded Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-N, NTR-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” and raised his target to US$90 from US$74. The average is US$84.33.
Elsewhere, TD’s Michael Tupholme raised his target to US$86 from US$81 with a “buy” rating.
“Our Q1/26E EBITDA (up modestly) is slightly above consensus,” said Mr. Tupholme. “Middle East conflict impact (higher nitrogen/phosphate prices) not seen meaningfully affecting NTR’s results until Q2/26. Our Q2/26 estimated EBITDA moves up 8 per cent; H2/26 estimates also up but less so on assumed pricing normalization. Beyond short-term earnings uplift, we like NTR’s medium-term to long-term Retail & fertilizer sales volume growth prospects; valuation seen as reasonable.”
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Jimmy Shan saw the first-quarter results from Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI-Q, CIGI-T) “as top-line strong but bottom-line wobbly” and warned its unchanged 2026 guidance relies significantly on a “strong” second half of the year.
“Given macro uncertainties and lingering AI impact overhang where one is ‘guilty until proven innocent’, CIGI’s price action today suggests that the market has no patience for wobbly quarters nor backend-loaded guidance,” he added. “That said, we continue to believe that for patient investors, CIGI offers good value even under our more conservative 2026 estimates at 13 times AEPS and 10.5 times AEBITDA.”
U.S.-listed shares of the Toronto-based commercial real estate services provider fell 5.6 per cent on Tuesday after it reported revenue of US$1.31-billion for the quarter, up 15 per cent year-over-year and above both the analyst’s US$1.27-billion estimate and the consensus of US$1.28-billion. Adjusted EBITDA of US$125-billion represented a gain of 8 per cent also topped expectations (US$121-million and US$120-million, respectively).
“Notably, Capital Markets and leasing revenue growth were robust and in fact, sector leading at up 47 per cent/11 per cent,” said Mr. Shan. “CIGI noted market share gains in the U.S., particularly strength in data centre development land and office, and strong U.S. industrial leasing. Engineering revenue was also strong at 18 per cent and overall top line growth was 16 per cent, on track to meet its mid-teen growth guidance for the year … but this did not flow through entirely to AEBITDA (up 8 per cent) and AEPS (up 5 per cent).
“Overall AEBITDA margin declined 67 basis points to 9.5 per cent, caused by: 1) CIGI has been investing in recruiting and IT investments to enable AI efficiencies within CRE, 2) Outsourcing had slower growth, 3) Lower utilization in residential development and telecom end markets in Engineering, 4) Higher than expected tax rate in Europe, 5) Integration under Harrison Street platform in IM, which has been well articulated in the past.”
Mr. Shan said the release, which included a reiteration of Colliers’ full-year guidance, was “largely neutral” to his forecast, and he sees its valuation remaining “attractive” on his “more conservative” estimates, which included reductions for both 2026 and 2027.
Reaffirming his “outperform” rating, he trimmed his target to US$155 from US$160. The average is US$159.54.
“Colliers’s business is advantaged by its globally recognized brand and its asset-light and high free cash flow generation, matched with its decentralized/partnership model and its small size relative to the acquisition opportunities that run across countries and diverse segments that service the CRE industry,” he noted. “Accordingly, we believe it is capable of compounding capital in the low- to mid-double-digit range over the long term.”
In other analyst actions:
* In response to a “strong start to FY26 as cost actions drive sustainable margin gains,” National Bank’s Baltej Sidhu raised his Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP-Q, BLDP-T) target to US$4.75 from US$3.15 with a “sector perform” rating. The average target is US$3.09.
“BLDP is executing well, with growing traction across next-generation platforms positioning it to maintain leadership as adoption accelerates. The company will host a Capital Markets Day on October 22, 2026, which should provide further strategic detail,” said Mr. Sidhu.
* Desjardins Securities’ Bryce Adams increased his target for Cameco Corp. (CCO-T) to $190 from $185 with a “buy” rating, while National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé moved his target to $180 from $175 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $172.93.
“CO reported a 1Q26 earnings beat and reaffirmed its guidance ranges; the stock opened higher but gave back early gains and was weaker alongside other uranium/ nuclear peers. We continue to view Cameco as best positioned in the uranium/nuclear market to capture macro tailwinds. We note that overall, the uranium market is still below replacement rates for long-term contracting volumes, and we see upside potential in CCO shares as uranium demand outpaces supply while security of supply is a key factor for utilities,” said Mr. Adams.
* Following a first-quarter beat that “demonstrate resiliency,” National Bank’s Caneron Doerksen raised his Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T) target to $108 from $104 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $118.15.
“Domestic air cargo demand remains steady for Cargojet, and while its more internationally-focused ACMI operations will continue to face end market-driven headwinds in the coming quarters, the company has successfully won new charter business as an offset demonstrating the resiliency of the business,” he said. “Although near-term catalysts are limited, valuation is attractive with the stock currently trading at 6.3 times EV/EBITDA based on our 2026 forecast, which is below the post-COVID (last three years) average of 7.6 times. CJT shares are also trading at a discount to the P&C/air cargo peer group (8.1 times 2026 EV/EBITDA).”
* TD’s Mario Mendonca lowered his Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T) target to $347 from $354 with a “buy” rating. The average is $319.40.
“IFC beat our estimates and the consensus by 7-8 per cent,” he said. “Q1/26 operating EPS $4.33 (up 8 per cent year-over-year) vs. our $4.03 (cons. $4.06).Top line growth of 4 per cent was in line. EPS beat from higher PYD (lower quality beat) and stronger investment income. Underlying loss ratio missed our est./cons. and was up year-over-year - we view unfavorably. Top line guidance in personal lines CAD is solid, while commercial & specialty remain soft onincreased competition.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil reduced his Lumine Group Inc. (LMN-T) target to $36 from $39 with a “buy” rating. The average is $40.50.
“LMN missed expectations on the quarter, likely as a result of a transition period with the Synchronoss acquisition having closed mid-quarter. We do not see AI easily disrupting LMN as Tier-1 telecom companies (LMN’s most important clients) rely on highly customized, ultra-reliable core systems with long, restrictive vendor cycles. We view any near-term drop in the stock due to the miss as a buying opportunity for long-term investors,” said Mr. Dubreuil.
* TD Cowen’s Sam Damiani bumped his RioCan REIT (REI.UN-T) target to $24 from $23 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar to $24 from $22 with a “buy” rating and National Bank’s Matt Kornack to $24.25 from $24 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $22.
“RioCan’s operating stats continue to shine with blended leasing spreads reaching another record level in Q1 (up 26 per cent). Management guidance is predicated on mid-teens blended spreads, the trailing four quarter average is now 23 per cent. Needless to say organic growth should come in ahead of forecast. That being said, this exceptional performance isn’t going to translate overnight into outsized SPNOI as the REIT contends with a long WATM on their leases. Nonetheless, as they continue to work through renewals, management did note that they are now aiming for the greater of 3-per-cent annual rent steps and CPI (a sizable positive departure from what was being achieved in legacy contracts). As one can tell, we like this story. That said, this quarter did have its drawbacks in terms of timing related expense items and some erosion in fee and other income line items that are constraining earnings growth,” said Mr. Kornack.
* Previewing the June 4 release of its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results, National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar cut his target for Saputo Inc. (SAP-T) shares to $44 from $46, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average is $48.25.
“Looking forward, we expect investor focus to be on steady execution amid a volatile commodity and uncertain macro backdrop. Given that Saputo has largely extracted benefits from its longstanding capital initiatives, we believe the story will shift to a focus on accelerating organic growth,” said Mr. Shreedhar.
* Seeing it “aggressively progressing,” National Bank’s Dan Payne bumped his target for Spartan Delta Corp. (SDE-T) to $16 from $15.50 with an “outperform” rating, while TD’s Aaron Bilkoski raised his target to $16 from $14 with a “buy” rating. The average is $12.75.
“The company reported strong first quarter operating & financial results in line with expectations, including average production that continued to outpace expectations at 52.1 mboe/d (42-per-cent liquids) and associated CFPS of $0.39 (vs. consensus $0.40),” said Mr. Payne. “While gas prices remained weak through the period, it continues to backfill revenue with its liquids exposures that positively impacted realizations sequentially (up 10 per cent; oil & liquids revenue up 15-20 per cent quarter-over-quarter), and which in association with sound cash costs continued to deliver a solid cash netback of $17.34/boe (flat quarter-over-quarter) for the period. Those returns continued to fund its high-momentum program (volumes up 4 per cent quarter-over-quarter) within the context of its balance sheet (leverage exiting the period soundly at 0.8 times D/CF).”
* RBC’s Bart Dziarski raised his TMX Group Ltd. (X-T) target to $69, exceeding the $62.33 average, from $65, keeping an “outperform” rating.
“We believe operating results continue to serve as a powerful reminder of TMX’s strong business model, with double-digit revenue growth and operating leverage driving margin expansion. Despite the recent positive re-rating, TMX is trading at 22.6 times forward P/E, in-line with global exchange peers, and we believe a premium is warranted given TMX’s fundamentally stronger business model. We increase our price target … driven by higher estimates and rolling forward our valuation.”
* TD’s Patrick Sullivan trimmed his target for shares of Wajax Corp. (WJX-T) to $33 from $35 with a “hold” rating, while National Bank’s Maxim Sytchev reduced his target to $34 from $37 with an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $35.50.
“The 14-per-cent drop in shares [on Tuesday] is a bit extreme in our view, given adj. EBIT only missed by 6 per cent, in a business characterized by lumpiness,” said Mr. Sullivan. “Weak revenue seems the largest concern, and we candidly do not see cause for near-term optimism. The business is in great position for earnings/ CF generation in a higher volume environment, which we see more as a 2027/2028 story.”