Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While he acknowledges the presence of headwinds to the performance and expansion of Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. (PET-T), Stifel analyst Martin Landry emphasizes the retailer is not a “value trap” for investors following a 14-per-cent drop in its share price on Tuesday in response to the release of weaker-than-anticipated first-quarter results.
“The company pointed to value seeking customers which leaned heavily into promotions and pressured margins,” he said in a client note. “Higher discounts year-over-year also weighed on comparable sales growth which came-in at 0 per cent year-over-year, the worst performance of the last five quarters. As a result, management reduced its 2026 financial guidance, which now calls for stable EPS growth year-over-year, down from an increase of mid-to-high single digits previously.
“Recall, the original 2026 financial guidance issued in March 2026 had already disappointed investors sending shares down 11 per cent on the day of the Q4/25 results. Hence, a further downward revision [Tuesday] exacerbated the disappointment. At 10-times forward earnings, six turns lower than the company’s 3-year average, shares of Pet Valu reflect a lot of negatives.”
The Markham, Ont.-based company reported quarterly revenue of $288-million, up 3 per cent year-over-year but below Mr. Landry’s $291-million estimate as same-store sales were flat as consumers continue to see value and “have leaned into promotional activity to a higher extent than in the past.” Earnings per share fell 13 per cent to 31 cents, missing the 37-cent projection of both the analyst and the Street.
Despite the underwhelming results and a cut to its full-year guidance, based “on higher fuel costs and pressured consumer,” Mr. Landry maintained his “buy” rating for Pet Valu, noting its issues aren’t unique.
“In our view, Pet Valu is negatively impacted by macroeconomic events rather than company specific issues,” he said. “Consumer confidence has declined in recent months in Canada, a reflection of the inflationary pressure impacting discretionary spending. The pet food industry has resilient characteristics and Pet Valu seems to be gaining market share according to management.
“Flat EPS is not exciting. Our revised forecasts are calling for EPS of $1.57, down 2 per cent year-over-year, and flat when removing the extra week in 2025. In revising the 2026 EPS guidance, management has assumed that fuel prices remain elevated all year. Under a situation where the conflict in Iran gets resolved, consumer confidence could return and fuel costs could abate, a potential upside to EPS guidance.”
While he cut his second-quarter comparable sales growth expectations, now calling for a “stable” increase in the second quarter, he thinks “there is a scenario where comparable sales return to growth in the back half. This would be well received by investors and could push shares higher.”
Also emphasizing the company’s “flexibility to act on share buybacks” and calling it a “leading Canadian pet food retailer” with an 18-per-cent market share, Mr. Landry lowered his target by $9 to $23. The average on the Street is $29.29, according to LSEG data.
“Shares of Pet Valu trade at 10 times forward earnings, six turns lower than the company’s 3-year average,” he noted. “We see the potential for the company to growth its earnings at 10% annually in a sustainable way under a normal economic environment. Hence, PET’s shares trade at a PEG ratio of 1 times, a low level in our view, given the defensive characteristics of the industry. Free cash flow yield, at 11 per cent on 2026 and 2027 is also an appealing level in our view.”
“Given the volatile economic environment, we believe Pet Valu is an appealing investment where investors can find refuge. The Canadian Pet Food industry is defensive, having declined only once in 30 years, a characteristic sought after by investors. In addition, Pet Valu’s cost structure is not impacted in a material way from fluctuation in tariffs.”
Elsewhere, others making revisions include:
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $22 from $27 with a “sector perform” rating.
“PET’s stock has become a show-me story as the company successively revised guidance lower,” said Mr. Shreedhar. “Until business model credibility is restored, we anticipate PET to trade at a discounted valuation reflecting heightened uncertainty.”
“While the pet industry has historically been characterized by stable growth, we believe the current pressured backdrop (tepid consumer and heightened industry competition, etc.) is unfavourable for premium-priced retailers. We look for signs of stabilizing performance in quarters ahead.”
* TD Cowen’s Cheryl Zhang (assuming coverage from Michael Van Aelst) to $22 from $34 with a “buy” rating.
“Shares fell 14 per cent [on Tuesday] on reduced earnings outlook driven by elevated value-seeking behaviour and fuel costs,” she said. “We maintain BUY as the attractive long-term growth outlook is unchanged and valuation at 10.4 times NTM [next 12-month] EPS is compelling. However, investor sentiment may take time to recover as earnings return to growth in H2/26.”
* RBC’s Irene Nattel to $26 from $27 with an “outperform” rating.
“With [Tuesday’s] 14-per-cent share price decline, investors are clearly disappointed with downward revision to 2026 guidance, including management commentary around heightened level of consumer value-seeking behaviour,” said Ms. Nattel. “Having said that, in our view, pressure on shares/valuation already reflects current state of consumer demand/SSS, and understates PET’s solid fundamental positioning, capital-light model and high ROIC/FCF. While we expect valuation to remain range-bound near- term, in our view current value presents an opportunity as visibility improves.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $26 from $32 with a “buy” rating.
“The sharp share price decline today reflects limited earnings visibility due to heightened value-seeking by consumers. This drove a 1Q miss and caused management to lower its 2026 earnings guidance. But at a forward P/E of only 10.5 times, we believe PET’s valuation already reflects the near-term challenges, with potential for improvement in 2H as promo intensity eases and PET laps year-ago pricing investments. We maintain our Buy rating but expect the shares to be rangebound until earnings visibility improves,” said Mr. Li.
National Bank Financial analyst Dan Payne downgraded CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T) to a “sector perform” rating from “outperform” previously, pointing to its relative outperformance and valuation as well as “seasonality (and mild structural headwinds) of returns and cadence of free cash flow & return of capital (which likely decelerate in the immediate-term).”
“That said, this rating change only sees us move CEU down to second place (from first) within our pecking order (now EFX, CEU, TCW, PD & PSI), as it remains one of the highest quality names in the group, with considerable long-term compounding opportunities ahead (discussed here),” said Mr. Payne. “This is by no means a suggestion to reduce exposure (impossible to say in this atmosphere), but hitting the pause button (given it is up 260 per cent since we upgraded it as our sole Outperform nine months ago; vs. peers 130 per cent), likely until after Q2 prints in the summer, at which point, the visibility in the outlook for the strength of its attributes likely improves (in support of a restoration of our optimistic long-term bias).”
Mr. Payne noted the company’s first-quarter results, which were released on May 6, largely fell in line with expectations with the Calgary-based company “positively progressing through expanding market share in the U.S. (a significant & structural opportunity with new business wins ongoing, below) and Canada remaining highly-entrenched, however we noted some blowing immediate-term headwinds, as margins contracted 60 bps through the period (supply chain & cost inflation creeping).”
“With that, and commentary on the call discussing those elements of drag (supply chain not easing anytime soon with global conflict ongoing), plus seasonality through break-up in Canada, we expect that earnings will decelerate in the near-term, which also likely to bias its cadence of return of capital through buyback (in association with its premium relative valuation to historical) to the low-end of the historical range, and each to constrain the stock’s near-term performance,” he continued.
The analyst maintained a $20 target for CEU shares. The average on the Street is $20.93.
“CEU remains one of the highest quality names in the group, with exposure to unique structural and thematic tailwinds to support earnings momentum and value over the long-term,” he concluded. “As we have previously suggested, its business should continue to expand through increased entrenchment (filling whitespace of the competitor landscape to drive market share higher) and new business wins (multi-billion dollar addressable market in offshore & oilsands being tapped), with the compounding impact of the intensity thematic (increased demand for consumable chemicals; recently noted examples in natural gas plays), and the returns of which should be magnified by operating leverage. With that, in the absence of increased industry activity, the company continues to maintain one of the greatest opportunities for growth and margin expansion from which to compound FCF (off its capital lite base) and value (validating its premium multiple); and all of which would drive leadership with any expansion to upstream spending. Again, the bull thesis has not dissipated, but is arguably on pause in the short-term.”
Following “strong” first-quarter results, National Bank Financial analyst Shane Nagle raised his forecast for Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS-T), touting near-term upside in fertilizer prices given the ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz as well as “ a balance sheet supportive of increased activity on the Company’s NCIB resulting in an improved target multiple.”
After the bell on Tuesday, the St. John’s-based company reported attributable adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $19.8-million for the quarter, exceeding Mr. Nagle’s $17-million estimate and the consensus of $15.6-million. Adjusted earnings per share of 11 cents fell below projections (14 cents and 18 cents, respectively).
However, the analyst emphasized Altius continues to see growth across every underlying business segment.
“Q1 revenues were $9.1-million from base metals, $5.4-million from lithium, $4.5-million from potash, $3.6-million from renewable energy, $1.6-million from iron ore and $2.2-million from interest and other income,” he said. “We continue to see near-term growth in base metals revenue from Voisy’s Bay expansion in H2/26, Curipamba in 2027 and Saúva development in 2029. Lithium revenues are also expected to increase with initial production from several assets over the coming years. We also continue to see strong growth in renewable and see potash prices remaining well supported through 2026 given global supply disruptions related to unrest in the Middle East.”
Also noting the company’s balance sheet remains in “strong shape” with the expectation it will be “more active on its NCIB through the remainder of the year,” Mr. Nagle raised his target for Altius shares to $62.50 from $57.50, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $51.63.
“Our Outperform rating remains supported by stable, long-life asset base, transitioning of the portfolio towards lower carbon-intensive commodities and leveraging in-house expertise to provide long-term exposure to future exploration success,” he said.
In the wake of better-than-expected first-quarter results and an increase to its 2026 guidance for the second time in as many quarters, RBC Dominion Securities analyst James McGarragle sees further upside for Exchange Income Corp. (CFW-T), pointing to “robust trends in Aviation and indication Manufacturing is capitalizing on improving industrial trends.”
“Furthermore, we continue to expect investor focus to shift to the compelling 2027 outlook, where we see potential for more than $1-billion in EBITDA if management is able to execute on a robust M&A and Aerospace pipeline, in addition to several known growth drivers, including Greenland and Canadian North,” he added.
Shares of the Winnipeg-based company jumped 6.6 per cent after it reported quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $166-million, ahead of both Mr. McGarragle’s $161-million estimate and the consensus of $159-million due largely to strong results from its Aviation business.
“While management’s 2026 guidance raise was encouraging, we view commentary on the 2027 outlook as the key takeaway from Q1,” he said. “In Manufacturing, the new Mississippi mat plant will meaningfully expand capacity to meet robust U.S. demand, while Cdn operations should benefit from long linear projects commencing late 2026/early 2027. Furthermore, we believe windows should stabilize. This combined with an improving industrial backdrop (PMI and ABI both more than 50) points to upside to consensus Manufacturing estimates in our view. Aerospace also presents multiple growth vectors through the Greenland contract, potential UK Home Office renewal, expanding ISR opportunities across Canada and Europe, and increasing passenger loads in Nunavut driven by federal northern investments. All that to say, our estimates do not include any future M&A or unannounced contracts wins, with management noting on the call it is in discussions for both, and we therefore see line of sight to more than $1-billion in EBITDA as early as next year.”
After Exchange Income management also increased its 2026 guidance to the upper end of $825-million to $875-million (from the mid to upper end of the range), ahead of consensus forecast of $868-million, Mr. McGarragle said he still sees the new range “as conservative given the Q1 result and reflecting several Aerospace opportunities that are progressing ahead of our prior expectations (Cdn. North, B.C. air ambulance, and ISR).”
“Moreover, management alluded to an acceleration of Manufacturing activity in the quarter, with that strength continuing into April, in addition to flagging that long linear projects in Canada are anticipated to come online in the latter part of 2026, all of which will believe suggests upside to Manufacturing expectations embedded in management’s guide,” he added.
While he raised his earnings forecast based on “solid growth in Aviation and an expected rebound in Manufacturing,“ Mr. McGarragle lowered his target to $127 from $133 to reflect his unchanged valuation multiple and increased leverage, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $125.30.
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to $120 from $116 with a “buy” rating.
“EIC posted a 1Q beat with records across key financial metrics and shifted its 2026 EBITDA guidance bias to the upper end of $825–875-million. Management also signalled potential upside if momentum persists. Our new 2026 estimated EBITDA is slightly more bullish at $881-million. A&A drove the outperformance across several drivers, while Manufacturing was modestly soft due to continued windows moderation and tariff headwinds. We raised our estimates,” said Mr. Ho.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $129 from $116 with a “buy” rating.
* Paradigm’s Razi Hasan to $122 from $120 with a “buy” rating.
* CIBC’s Krista Friesen to $123 from $120 with an “outperformer” rating.
In a client report released before the bell titled “I’ve got the power!”—reflecting the data centre opportunity, Desjardins Securities analyst Jerome Dubreuil argues BCE Inc. (BCE-T) and Telus Corp. (T-T) are well positioned to “monetize their access to power, solutions portfolios, fibre and B2B expertise,” pointing to their “strong compute demand and data repatriation initiatives position.”
“We see upside in BCE’s stock, particularly around uncontracted power,” he said “This opportunity should drive an acceleration of BCE’s adjusted EBITDA growth to 5-per-cent-plus in 2028, supported by strong IRRs and only a modest impact on leverage. We see data centres as a catalyst-rich theme, including (1) incremental power allocation; (2) contract announcements; (3) execution milestones; (4) disclosure improvement; and (5) minority stake sales.”
Maintaining his “buy” rating for BCE shares, Mr. Dubreuil raised his target to $43.50 from $41 to “better reflect the data centre opportunity.” The average is $38.51.
“Our increased confidence in the value of power access alongside BCE’s early execution leads us to ascribe $3/share of incremental value for the uncontracted 427MW of power capacity we expect the company will eventually monetize,” he explained. “We view this as conservative, given (1) that we reflect only 50 per cent of our derived value for this 427MW capacity; and (2) our assumption of a 14-per-cent IRR on its deployment (vs 20 per centfor the Saskatchewan project). We calculate the announcement of contracts for the 427MW would unlock an incremental $3/share of value after removing our 50-per-cent discount. This would amount to a total of $6/share for the 427MW, none of which we believe is currently reflected in BCE’s share price or the company’s three-year guidance.
“Our $43.50 target price now reflects $8/share of value for data centres ($5 for the Saskatchewan project and the 73MW, and $3 for the uncontracted 427MW). This could rise to $11/share if (but more likely when) the remaining available power is contracted. BCE remains at the top of our telecom pecking order and we expect its accelerating growth profile to be increasingly recognized by investors.”
The analyst kept a “buy” rating and $21 target for Telus shares “mostly due to the limited disclosure and communication on their data centre strategy; regardless, we expect T will monetize its access to power (up to 150MW).” The average is $20.23.
“We have fewer financial details on T’s data centre strategy relative to BCE,” he explained. “At present, the company is looking to scale its business to 150MW, which is materially below BCE’s capacity, although we believe management is working on securing more power access over time. Unlike BCE, T plans to own the AI chips deployed within its data centres. This approach has the potential to make projects with smaller power allocations much more meaningful endeavors given the high portion of costs related to chips. Moreover, T is leveraging existing data centre infrastructure, which has enabled the rapid launch of its first campus in Rimouski. In addition, T expects to leverage TELUS Digital’s AI capabilities to deliver adjacent services.”
In other analyst actions:
* RBC’s Keith Mackey raised his Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW-T) target to $8 from $7.50 with a “sector perform” rating. The average on the Street is $7.25.
“1Q26 EBITDA was ahead of our estimates as North America margins improved on enhanced cost management. We have increased our 2026/27 EBITDA estimates by 7 per cent/10 per cent,” said Mr. Mackey.
* Mr. Mackey also raised his Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW-T) target to $8.50 from $7.50 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $8.10.
“Trican’s 1Q26 results were slightly better than we expected on a strong quarter-end revenue push. We continue to see Trican as a leading Canadian service provider, with strong offerings in pressure pumping and cementing, but see stronger relative opportunity in select US pressure pumpers at present. We increase our 2026 EBITDA estimates slightly and our 2027 estimate increases by 6 per cent,” said Mr. Mackey.
* RBC’s Nelson Ng increased his target for Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (CHE.UN-T) to $20, matching the average, from $18, keeping an “outperform” rating.
“Chemtrade reported solid Q1/26 results in line with consensus and reiterated full-year guidance. We believe the outlook for H2/26 is favourable, supported by higher prices for caustic soda, chlorine, and sulphuric acid. We also expect Chemtrade to resolve the perpetuity concerns regarding its rezoning application for its North Vancouver facility. We are raising our price target to $20 from $18 on the back of higher prices for some chemicals, and we assume that the North Vancouver facility will be successfully rezoned,” said Mr. Ng.
* RBC’s Pammi Bir moved his target for units of Crombie REIT (CRR.UN-T) to $18, above the $17.90 average, from $16.50 with a “sector perform” rating.
“On balance, no big surprises coming out of Q1. In the face of broader macro unease and a sluggish economy, we expect organic growth to continue printing in the low-single digits, modestly ahead of CRR’s longterm target. As well, its recent transactions further illustrate the ability to flex its strategic ties with Empire to drive growth. Broader market transactions have also made a good case for compression in retail REIT NAV cap rates, particularly grocery anchored. In short, CRR’s premium relative valuation seems well supported,” said Mr. Bir.
* Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar raised his CT Real Estate Investment Trust (CRT.UN-T) target to $19 from $18 with a “hold” rating. The average is $17.50.
“CRT delivered a slightly better-than-expected quarter and announced three new acquisitions totalling $43-million,” said Mr. Kalmar. “The 1Q beat drove a 4-per-cent increase in our estimates. We are now forecasting 4-per-cent average FFOPU [funds from operations per unit] growth in 2026/27. However, in consideration of its current valuation, both relative to historical and its retail peers, and the 14-per-cent total potential return to our revised $19 target.”
* National Bank’s Matt Kornack trimmed his Nexus Industrial REIT (NXR.UN-T) target to $8.50 from $8.75, which is the average, keeping a “sector perform” rating.
“NXR’s Q1/26 results came in a bit lighter than expected, owing to two small tenant vacancies and limited leasing completed in the quarter (although the MTMs were strong on the space that was signed),” said Mr. Kornack. “Looking ahead, the REIT expects to see some additional non-renewals (140,000+ sq. ft.) but is still calling for mid-single digit SPNOI growth for the year. Lease-up of vacant space at existing and recently developed assets should aid overall earnings figures as would the disposition of NXR’s vacant property in Hamilton, which has weighed on results. With regards to fundamentals, management’s tone was mixed and market dependent with Canada still experiencing some localized trade-related macro headwinds.”
* Following better-than-anticipated first-quarter results, National Bank’s Dan Payne raised his Paramount Resources Ltd. (POU-T) target to $38 from $36 with a “sector perform” rating, while RBC’s Michael Harvey increased his target to $35 from $32 with a “sector perform” rating The average is $33.51.
“Strength of execution remains its hallmark, as it maintains (and augments) momentum and progress towards meaningful value catalysts in the outlook; POU is poised for a 24-per-cent return profile (vs. peers 19 per cent) on leverage of 0.3 times (in line with peers), while trading at 5.2 times 2027 estimated EV/DACF (vs. peers 4.1 times),” said Mr. Payne. “The increase in target price is ascribed to earnings outperformance and tailwinds to forecasts through the outlook.”
* Following “strong” first-quarter results from Power Corporation of Canada (POW-T), National Bank’s Jaeme Gloyn think “solid earnings growth will drive ongoing narrowing of NAV discount” and raised his target to $85 from $77 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $76.71.
“We see NAV upside from strategies to i) further simplify and de-risk the business model (i.e., no material exposure to Standalone Businesses), and ii) drive a re-rate of operating company valuations through organic and inorganic drivers (e.g., solid earnings growth from GWO and IGM in Q1-26),” said Mr. Gloyn. “Longer term, we see upside from growth in the alternative asset management platform that continues to grow AUM; however, the timing of upside remains uncertain. In the meantime, POW stands to benefit from significant carried interest and potential upside from key investments like Wealthsimple (POW directly owns a fully diluted stake of 15 per cent, and indirectly through IGM and GWO an additional stake of 26 per cent. Total of 41-per-cent fully diluted). A 3.3-per-cent dividend yield is attractive to investors seeking a stable and growing income component.
“We reflect our views through i) our above-consensus price target on IGM, and ii) a discount to NAV that is at its narrowest in recent history. Our $85 price target (was $77, up on GWO and IGM share price jumps to date in Q2-26) reflects a discount to NAV of 12% (unchanged). We rate POW shares Sector Perform given that stronger total returns exist elsewhere in our coverage universe. We also acknowledge increased volatility and heightened market uncertainty could cause the recently wider discount to NAV to sustain in the near term.”