Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar sees Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD-T) “on firmer footing to deliver growth as numerous revenue drivers/efficiencies are in place, and largely showing results.”
“The key for ATD is to deliver sustained growth via organic drivers, share repurchases, and acquisitions,” he added.
Shares of the Montreal-based company jumped 11.7 per cent to a new all-time high on Tuesday after it reported fourth-quarter 2026 financial results that Mr. Shreedhar deemed “solid, largely driven by higher fuel margins (merchandising gross profit was stronger in the U.S. and below our expectations in Canada and Europe & Other.”
Couche-Tard grows U.S. gas station profits during Middle East war
The convenience store operator, which owns the Circle K chain, reported total revenue for the quarter of $19.5-billion, rising from $16.3-billion during the same period a year ago and exceeding both the analyst’s $18.4-billion estimate and the consensus projection of $17.9-million. Earnings per share jumped to 73 cents from 46 cents and also topped estimates (58 cents and 53 cents, respectively).
“ATD noted continued success in driving store traffic via digital/loyalty,” said Mr. Shreedhar. “Packaged beverages sssg [same-store sales growth was approximately 6 per cent and other nicotine products sssg was 8.5 per cent, which is solid. (2) We are also constructive on the progress in foodservice (U.S. sssg was more than 5 per cent; Fresh Food Fast sales grew more than 10 per cent).
“Q1 quater-to-date is seeing continued momentum; target to achieve more than 10 per cent organic medium-term EPS growth was reiterated (NBCCM is 6.5 per cent in F2027). ATD further strengthened fuel capabilities with the acquisition of three terminals in Germany. Based on seven weeks of available OPIS data, we estimate strong Q1/F27E U.S. fuel margin of more than 50 cents per gallon (NBCCM currently models 49.7 c/g).”
Also noting Couche-Tard “remains active” on M&A, the analyst raised his EPS estimates “slightly higher largely reflecting higher fuel margins.” His 2027 projection increased to $3.30 from $3.19 with his 2028 estimate up a penny to $3.65.
Keeping his “outperform” rating for Couche-Tard shares, Mr. Shreehar hiked his target to $102 from $91. The average on the Street is $102.08.
Elsewhere, other analysts making changes include:
* Scotia’s John Zamparo to $107 from $94 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“We have increased conviction in ATD’s 10-12-per-cent EPS growth trajectory through F28, and we see the potential for another near-term catalyst in the FQ1 print as fuel margins could again surprise to the upside. The U.S. merch comp was an unexpected tailwind in FQ4 and while we expect it to moderate, Europe/Other should pick up the slack. The balance sheet represents another source of growth, either from M&A (which seems increasingly likely to us) or a resumption of buybacks. Oil’s volatility presents optimal conditions for this stock, and we see key similarities to 2022, when ATD rewarded investors ... ATD remains our top pick,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* BMO’s Étienne Ricard to $95 from $84 with a “market perform” rating.
“ATD is entering fiscal 2027 on a positive note with continued momentum in U.S. merchandise sales (led by other nicotine products, energy drinks, food) and ‘robust’ fuel margins, enabling the firm to aptly navigate a dynamic macro environment. We continue to believe ATD’s organic earnings growth potential (exc. buybacks) remains in the low to mid-single digits; with the stock trading at 20 times earnings, we see a balanced risk-reward,” said Mr. Ricard.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan to $101 from $94 with a “buy” rating.
“Organic growth initiatives should be supportive of margin growth over the course of our forecast period, while structural market dynamics suggest fuel margins over the medium-to-long term should remain healthy. In our view, Couche-Tard remains well positioned to deliver long-term organic EBITDA growth, which should be complemented by accretive M&A,” said Mr. Hannan.
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $101 from $92 with a “buy” rating.
“4Q results demonstrate the strength of ATD’s integrated fuel supply chain, while also highlighting how its self-help initiatives are driving solid growth in merchandise SSSG supported by strength in food, beverages, nicotine and loyalty against ATD’s target of 2–3 per cent,“ said Mr. Li. ”We believe the current forward P/E of approximately 20 times is supported by consistent execution and improvement in macros driving strong organic earnings growth as well as M&A optionality."
* TD Cowen’s Derek Lessard to $109 from $100 with a “buy” rating.
“Shares were up approximately 12 per cent on a materially stronger Q4, while management reaffirmed confidence in achieving its growth algorithm in F27,” said Mr. Lessard. “Our estimates are unchanged and still imply a healthy 5-per-cent/13-per-cent EBITDA/EPS CAGR through F28. Despite the re-rate to 19 times NTM [next 12-month] EPS, execution, loyalty and fuel keep the upside case compelling.”
* Stifel’s Martin Landry to $102 from $93 with a “buy” rating.
“Couche-Tard’s momentum seems to be continuing into Q1FY27 with recent trends mostly unchanged. Hence, this could translate into upwards revision to FY27 consensus estimates. We are increasing our forecasts slightly,” said Mr. Landry.
Despite the nearly 120-per-cent jump in its share price thus far in 2026, Stifel analyst Suthan Sukumar thinks the market “still misdefines” BlackBerry Ltd. (BB-T).
“This is no longer an auto-supplier story, but rather a mission-critical software layer in the physical AI stack and a dominant partner to silicon leaders like NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and AMD powering the build-out from cloud to edge, across cars, robots, factories, and medical devices,” he said.
“A higher-quality revenue/earnings shift is playing out that is reminiscent of ARM’s capital-light royalty-annuity model. We are not arguing for an ARM multiple, but lower revenue risk, structural margin expansion as the mix shifts toward runtime royalties, and high FCF conversion support a premium valuation against a rapidly expanding, still-undersized TAM [total addressable market]. With BlackBerry in a leading competitive position, we see meaningful value to capture as the physical AI market unfolds, driving sustained acceleration in growth and margin expansion, with potential for execution upside and guidance raises.”
In a report released before the bell titled The only certainty in a probabilistic world, Mr. Sukumar initiated coverage of the Waterloo, Ont.-based company with a “buy” rating, calling it a “differentiated play on the rise of physical AI.”
“Unlike the probabilistic AI running above it, the control layer beneath physical systems cannot fail, and QNX has been that deterministic, safety-certified layer for 40 years,” he explained. “Our due diligence across silicon partners and distributors helps corroborates that there is no superior alternative to QNX’s combination of safety certification and real-time performance at scale. Cross-vertical certifications, a differentiated microkernel, and a silicon flywheel with NVIDIA, Qualcomm and Arm create hard-to-replicate barriers across automotive, industrial and medical regimes. A record, growing ~US$950mm royalty backlog (high-margin runtime royalties) provides multi-year visibility few peers can match, expanding even against soft auto production.
“A Portable, More Monetizable Moat: Potential 10 times over the next decade. The software-defined stack behind QNX’s automotive success is now replicating across factories, hospitals and robotics, where non-auto general embedded markets (GEM) are already 20 per cent of QNX revenue and convert faster than autos (6–12 months vs. 5 years). Moving up the stack into Alloy Kore middleware can lift per-vehicle content 3–6x, a catalyst that triggers on the first OEM design win, with Mercedes-Benz and other OEMs in active conversations. Adjacent products (QNX Sound, QNX Cabin) lift content per vehicle; recent GEM wins (a J&J AI heart pump) validate the cross-vertical thesis. Our proprietary TAM framework sizes a potential 10 times QNX revenue opportunity over the 2030."
Also seeing its Secure Communications business moving from a “primary valuation overhang” to “a constructive phase as governments and regulated organizations prioritize sovereign communications, cyber resilience and control of sensitive data, a policy-driven, durable demand cycle,” Mr. Sukumar set a $12 target for BlackBerry shares. The average target is $10.20.
“Post a multi-year transformation, Blackberry is now firing on all cylinders with a return to overall growth with improving profitability and FCF. Our core thesis revolves around sustained QNX design wins across auto/general embedded markets and rising defence/digital-sovereignty spending to drive accelerated growth and margin expansion with potential for upside execution and upward guide raises, supporting a valuation re-rate that more appropriately reflects Blackberry’s expanding TAM opportunity,” he added.
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Jimmy Shan sees Northview Residential REIT (NRR.UN-T) as “a niche residential play that provides investors with indirect exposure to Canada’s resource economies and its far north regions, both with net positive macro tailwinds.”
He initiated coverage of the Calgary-based REIT, which operates a multi-residential portfolio of weighted to Northern and Western Canada, with a “sector perform” recommendation, noting it offers “the highest yield in the Canadian residential sector (6.7 per cent), reflecting the inherent risks of its smaller markets, its higher leverage and small float.”
“What makes NRR unique versus its residential peers is that it is effectively a play on Canada’s resource economies,” said Mr. Shan. “Given the current political and macro environment, we believe that on a net basis, its markets have positive tailwinds, especially its energy-related markets and its Northern markets which should benefit from significant infrastructure investments as the Federal Government looks to defend the Arctic. At the same time, we believe NRR’s markets carry risks – they are cyclical given their small size and dependency on cyclical industries, while the property markets are far less liquid and do not have bid depth, thus requiring a higher return.
“The main unknown with the NRR story is how the small float improves. This depends on current institutional holders’ decision to liquidate their positions – something we believe could happen over the next few years. Because there are five separate institutions, each with their own cost basis, unit structure, and exit objectives, their interests may not necessarily align with existing minority unitholders and it is difficult to determine what the likely outcome will be. A significantly increased float (e.g., via secondary unit sales), a return of capital through asset monetization, a strategic or recapitalization event are all possibilities. In the meantime, we expect NRR to remain under the radar of most institutional investors."
Mr. Shan thinks NRR’s valuation is currently “discounted but fair” versus peers, but he sees it as “fair ... given higher leverage and secondary, small markets.”
“NRR trades at 26-per-cent discount to our NAV [net asset value] estimate of $22.00, 36-per-cent discount to IFRS BV [book value] of $25.61 and 10 times 2026 estimated AFFO [adjusted funds from operations,” he explained. “With its larger Canadian multi-residential peers trading at 25-per-cent discount to NAV, 32-per-cent discount to IFRS BV and 17 tmes 2026 estimated AFFO, we see NRR’s valuation as relatively fair given it operates in smaller, more illiquid markets, notwithstanding its relatively higher near-term FFO growth driven by deleveraging of last few years.”
He set a target of $17.50 per unit. The average target is currently $18.17.
“NRR’s markets are small, with a median population base of 70,000 and are often dependent on few resource industries that are cyclical by nature,” he added. “As such, market vacancy can be more volatile than in larger urban markets – NRR’s portfolio (in its various form over the years) has seen vacancy reach 10-per-cent overall on a few occasions (2009 GFC, 2015-2016 oil correction, 2021-2022 Covid), with some markets reaching materially higher than that.
“Lack of market depth and investment liquidity: Investment transaction volume is far lower in its markets than major urban markets given the remoteness of locations and secondary/tertiary nature of these markets. This lack of market depth implies lack of flexibility in asset monetization and more uncertainty relating to NAV estimates.”
In a separate report, seeing “visible growth at a reasonable price,” Mr. Shan initiated coverage of PRO REIT (PRV.UN-T) with an “outperform” rating.
“One approach real estate investors have used to target strong risk-adjusted mid-teen returns in the industrial sector is to acquire well-located infill small-to-mid-bay industrial properties with below-market rents and short duration leases, release at market rents and exit at the higher NOI,” he said. “In many ways, we believe that this value-add strategy represents the essence of the PRV story over the next few years.”
Mr. Shan thinks Montreal-based PRO, which focuses on small and mid-bay industrial properties largely in secondary markets across the country, appears poised to generate a funds from operations per unit compound annual growth rate of at least 10 per cent in next two years, citing four factors:
“1) The combination of high mark-to-market rent opportunity of 25 per cent (for its industrial portfolio), ranking as one of highest among peers, and its short WALT [weighted average lease term] of less than 4 years (77 per cent of 2026 maturing GLA [gross leasable area] were renewed at 35-per-cent positive leasing spread); 2) Good demand/supply picture with consistent demand coming from small/ mid-bay tenancies which tend to serve local and regional businesses, less impacted by tariffs and limited new supply in its core secondary markets given fewer large bay speculative developments; 3) Demand tailwind from increased defence spending with 44 per cent of base rent from Atlantic Canada; and 4) A fully internalized leasing and property management team rooted in Atlantic Canada combined with a dominant market share in its core Atlantic markets, leading to meaningful pricing power.”
With its “attractive and visible growth profile” and seeing a “reasonable valuation considering growth profile,” Mr. Shan set a target of $7.25 per unit. The average is $7.03.
“PRV trades close to our NAV estimate of $6.75 and at 14.1 times/12.4 times 2026/2027 estimated AFFO vs. 14.6 times/13.9 times for its Canadian industrial peers,” he said. “While the trading multiple looks only modestly discounted versus its large cap peers, we believe that its superior FFO growth profile over next two years more than offset its slightly higher leverage and secondary market exposure. Said differently, given the portfolio MTM of 22.5 per cent (industrial 24.5 per cent), we estimate that there is 40-per-cent-plus upside potential to our NAV estimate as in-place rents move to market over the next few years.”
Previewing the second quarter of 2026 for North American railway companies, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Walter Spracklin reaffirmed Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) as his “best ideas” given its “strong volume trends as well as solid car velocity,” which he thinks “sets the stage for a Q2 beat and a guidance raise.”
“The average return for the rails in our coverage was up 9.9 per cent Q2 quarter-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 by 290 basis points,” he said. “CN shares performed best following better than expected volume performance QTD, in addition to strong operating trends, both of which we believe are driving the strong share price performance. CSX also outperformed the group following a strong Q1 result that highlighted cost control and carload growth outperformance versus peers. Q2 QTD. CPKC shares traded in line to a touch ahead of the group despite Q1 results that came in below expectations, as management’s strong Q2 commentary — including management describing April as ‘a record month across the board’ and reaffirming confidence in double-digit EPS growth for the back half — helped drive investor confidence and reinforced the medium-term operating leverage thesis. UNP shares also traded higher on the back of a Q1 EPS beat, record first-quarter operating metrics, and an affirmed full-year mid-single-digit EPS growth outlook, though gains were capped relative to peers as investors continued to monitor the uncertain regulatory timeline for the proposed UNP-NSC combination. Finally, NSC shares underperformed the group as the market weighed the uncertain STB approval timeline for the UNP-NSC merger."
In a report released before the bell, Mr. Spracklin said he also continues to “flag meaningful longer-term opportunity” in Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T).
“Overall, we see CN, CSX, and UNP as delivering the best earnings upside versus consensus given strong volume trends,” he added. “We see a near-term neutral reaction to CP reflecting strong operating metrics and in-line volumes, offset by several derailments and increased SBC. In terms of valuation, we took higher our target multiples at CN, CP, and CSX, due to indications the freight backdrop is improving and left our multiple unchanged at UNP (while NSC’s valuation is tied to UNP’s share price).”
For CN, Mr. Spracklin raised his quarterly forecast, which now exceeds the Street’s expectations, leading him to raise his target for its shares to $195 from $178 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $168.01.
“Our Q2 EPS estimate goes to $1.95, from $1.92, above consensus $1.91, on the back of strong volumes and solid operating metric trends,” he said. “Our 2026 EPS growth estimate of 5.5 per cent (from 4.7 per cent) is ahead of both consensus 3.0 per cent and guidance for slightly better than flattish, reflecting: 1) volumes that are trending up 3.6 per cent year-to-date, well ahead of guidance for flattish; and 2) strong car velocity trends, which we believe sets the stage for operating leverage. We therefore could see management raise EPS guidance to mid-single-digits, which we believe would be well received.”
For rival CPKC, Mr. Spracklin reaffirmed his quarterly expectations, which fall in line with the Street’s, but he raised his target to $139 from $127 also with an “outperform” rating. The average is $134.10.
“Our Q2 estimate remains at $1.24 (cons. $1.24) reflecting strong operating metrics and in line volumes, offset by several derailments and increased SBC,” he said. “Our 2026 EPS growth estimate of 11 per cent (unchanged) aligns with guidance for EPS up low double digits and compares to consensus 11.5 per cent. Key focus on the call will be the extent to which CP specific opportunities can offset continued Coal headwinds.”
Ballard Power Systems Inc.’s (BLDP-Q, BLDP-T) US$400-million acquisition of UK-based hydrogen power company GeoPura Ltd. is “transformative” and “meaningfully” improves its earnings profile, according to National Bank Financial analyst Baltej Sidhu, who called it “the most strategically significant transaction” in its history.
His enthusiasm for the deal, which was announced on Tuesday morning, was not matched by investors as the Vancouver-based company’s TSX-listed shares fell 3.4 per cent during the trading session.
“While the company is acquiring a business expected to generate £38-million in 2026 (US$50-million, relative to our FY26E Sales of US$168-million for BLDP; however, unclear as to how much BLDP revenues are embedded in GeoPura figures), we believe the larger key takeaway is the transformation of Ballard’s business model from a fuel-cell component manufacturer into a vertically integrated hydrogen solution provider," he said.
“While the headline 8x EV/Sales multiple is unlikely to be viewed as inexpensive, through GeoPura, Ballard should gain capabilities across the hydrogen value chain, including production, logistics, refuelling, fuel supply, stationary power generation and recurring energy-as-a-service (EaaS) offering. Management also expects US$25-million of annual run-rate EBITDA synergies and reiterates its target of achieving profitability by 2028.”
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Sidhu said GeoPura’s hydrogen infrastructure enhanced Ballard’s optionality moving forward.
“We remain constructive on the transaction. GeoPura has demonstrated diesel genset cost parity in its core UK market and owns hydrogen production assets supporting its integrated HPU fleet and fuel offering,” he explained. “The business currently operates 15 MW of hydrogen production capacity (6 tonnes/day) across three sites, supported by a 15-year HAR contract for difference framework.
“While current production remains modest, GeoPura controls access to 930 MW of grid connected expansion capacity, providing a pathway for future production expansion should hydrogen demand continues to scale. Future fleet expansion is also expected to utilize asset-backed financing, potentially reducing balance sheet burden to fund growth.”
While he increased his revenue projections for both 2026 and 2027 and continues to predict the combined company will achieve positive cash flow by 2028, Mr. Sidhu reiterated a “sector perform” rating and US$4.75 target for Ballard shares. The average is US$3.98.
“We view the October IR Day as the next key catalyst, providing greater visibility into the combined company’s growth and profitability,” he said.
In other analyst actions:
* Seeing its valuation “attractive” and growth “underappreciated,” BMO’s John Gibson upgraded CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” and raised his target to $22 from $21. The average is $21.34.
“CES shares have underperformed since our downgrade in March, while the oil market outlook into 2027 is improved,” said Mr. Gibson. “Further, we believe three growth avenues represent a potential step change in financial results moving forward. These include production chemicals market share gains across U.S. onshore, Gulf of Mexico offshore, and Canadian SAGD work.
“Taken together, CES could add upwards of $1-billion of revenue to its business over the next few year.”
* Assuming coverage of Dexterra Group Inc. (DXT-T), ATB Cormark’s Kyle McPhee raised the firm’s target for its shares to $19.50 from $14.25, which is the current average, keeping an “outperform” rating.
“DXT is firmly on our favorite picks list. The investment setup captures the ideal combo of durable growth, cheap valuation, and meaningful forecast upside from multiple dynamics that we think carry good odds (organic demand capture and ongoing M&A). We are also fans of the disciplined management team that is strategically allocating capital and structurally enhancing the business,” said Mr. McPhee.
* In a report titled Production Inflection Point & Positioned to Ride the Montney Consolidation Wave, Scotia’s Kevin Fisk resumed coverage of Kelt Exploration Ltd. (KEL-T) with a “sector outperform” rating and $13 target.
“KEL is a natural gas-weighted producer with high-quality assets in the Montney and Charlie Lake plays. We believe the company is positioned to outperform for the following reasons: (1) management has a proven track record of creating shareholder value (at KEL and a predecessor company). Further, a high level of insider ownership aligns management with shareholders. (2) The Montney is consolidating and KEL’s high-quality assets make it a takeout target. We believe the market value of KEL’s assets is not fully reflected in its share price. (3) The company is targeting meaningful production growth (14-per-cent 5-year CAGR) supported by a deep inventory of drilling locations. Our target price of $13/share implies a one-year return of 46 per cent and is based on a 50/50 weighting of our sum-of-the-assets (SOA) NAV and a 6.0x 2026 EV/DACF multiple,” said Mr. Fisk.
* Touting a “transformational copper story,” ATB Cormark’s Stefan Ioannou increased his target for Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) to $40 from $32.50 with an “outperform” rating to reflect its latest results, guidance and growth outlook. The average is $41.91.
“Lundin is a mid-tier copper-focused producer with a second-to-none growth outlook that stands to propel the company to ‘major’ status. Three established mines, including the flagship Candelaria copper mine in Chile, offer organic growth upside potential in favourable South American jurisdictions. More pertinently, a strong balance sheet (undrawn debt buffered) positions Lundin to develop the world-class Vicuña District alongside 50/50 JV partner BHP,” he said.
* Expecting the first quarter to “represent trough post-COVID-19 occupancy,” Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar raised his target for units of Primaris Real Estate Investment Trust (PMZ.UN-T) to $23.50 from $21.50 with a “buy” rating ahead of its Investor Day event on Thursday. The average is $21.45.
“Notwithstanding the strong year-to-date performance (36-per-cent total return), PMZ remains our best idea in the REIT space, offering investors an increasingly rare combination of earnings growth catalysts and a significant valuation discount vs both its Canadian retail and U.S. mall peers.” he said. “We still see meaningful upside in the stock as occupancy recovers, management executes on its capital allocation priorities and earnings growth accelerates.”