Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Ahead of the release of Bombardier Inc.’s (BBD.B-T) second-quarter financial results on July 30, National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen thinks market conditions remain strong, but the business jet manufacturer’s valuation is “looking elevated.”
“Although end markets have remained highly positive for Bombardier and a weaker CAD has also likely boosted the stock (CAD share price but USD earnings), we are frankly surprised at how strong the stock has been,” he said. “We continue to be bullish on growth for Bombardier supported by strong biz jet market fundamentals and growing momentum in Defense, but in our view, valuation is still looking elevated.
“Bombardier shares trading at a large premium to the peer group average. The direct aircraft OEM peer group is trading at an average of 13.3 times current year and 11.8 times next year EV/EBITDA versus Bombardier currently trading at 16.3 times and 15.0 times, respectively, based on consensus estimates. While Bombardier is benefiting from strong end market momentum and valuation is perhaps being boosted by the scarcity of defence-exposed stocks in Canada, the magnitude of the premium the stock is enjoying relative to the peer group is large.”
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Doerksen emphasized Bombardier’s stock has been “massively outperforming” peers over the past year, rising 48 per cent in 2026 and 125 per cent over the last 12 months versus gains for the TSX of 11 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively. The Dow Jones Aerospace & Defense Index is up 29 per cent over the past year.
Those gains come amid “positive” end markets for business jets and sustained defence “momentum.”
“Higher business jet utilization is typically a leading indicator for new jet demand as well as aftermarket activity,” he said. “According to business aviation data provider WingX, global business jet departures so far this year (through the end of June) are up 3.7 per cent compared to the same period last year.
“A key driver for Bombardier’s share price momentum has been success for the company’s Defense segment where revenue surpassed $1.0-billion last year and looks to be well on the way to surpassing management’s targeted $1.5-billion. We highlight recent firm contract awards, contracts for which a Bombardier jet platform has been selected as preferred bidder, and other prospective new contracts that have appeared in recent press reports. Bombardier’s partnership with Saab on the GlobalEye platform is particularly exciting as more countries express interest.”
Maintaining his “sector outperform” rating due to valuation concerns, Mr. Doerksen hiked his target for Bombardier shares to $349 from $296. The average on the Street is $332.33, according to LSEG data.
“We previously valued the stock by applying a 12.5 times EV/EBITDA multiple to our 2027 forecast, but to better reflect the strong outlook for the company and the share price momentum, we are increasing our target multiple to 14.0 times,” he explained. “Our forecast changes are minor, but the higher multiple and the weaker CAD (CDN$ share price but USD earnings), results in a new target ... We see limited upside for the stock in the near term and would look for a better entry point on a pullback to build a position in the stock.”
Calling it “a high-quality but still under the radar supply chain software name with a multi-year growth runway ahead,” TD Cowen analyst John Shao initiated coverage of Tecsys Inc. (TCS-T) with a “buy” rating.
“Tecsys enjoys a strong reputation and word of mouth within the healthcare supply chain market, and we expect this to benefit its healthy growth profile driven by market share gains and ARPU [average revenue per user] growth,” he said.
Mr. Shao said the Montreal-based supply chain management software provider is “steadily building the foundation to become a larger and more influential supply chain and logistics software company in Canada.” He sees it “following the same path” as larger peers Descartes Systems Group Inc. (DSG-T) and Kinaxis Inc. (KXS-T).
“Tecsys offers competitive products in healthcare supply chain where rising market/wallet share gains can support up to 23-per-cent ARR CAGR [annual recurring revenue compound annual growth rate],” he said. “Our channel checks support the observed market positioning. We see multiple drivers for consistent gross margin/EBITDA margin expansion, ranging from new Cloud infrastructure and improved negotiating power with key suppliers, to economies of scale. As the margin profile improves, we expect the valuation multiple to catch up with supply chain peers trading at a premium.
“Market is mispricing Tecsys’ SaaS business. With five revenue segments at various growth and margin profiles, we believe this complexity discounts the SaaS business, which has historically delivered a 33-per-cent 5-year CAGR. Incrementally, profitability is on track to converge towards SaaS-like gross margins of 75 per cent from 64 per cent today. Our SOTP [sum-of-the-parts] valuation implies 27-per-cent upside potential, supporting our target price.”
Also touting Tecsys’ “defensible takeout profile with precedent transactions across both healthcare and Canadian Tech implying a 4-5 times NTM [next 12-month] revenue takeout multiple,” Mr. Shao set a target of $39 per share but sees “up to 90-per-cent upside potential beyond.” The average on the Street is $38.63.
“Tecsys is trading at 2.2 times forward consolidated EV/Sales, which is below its SCM peers at 6.4 times and historical average of 2.6 times,” he said. “We see this discount as largely due to the dilution effect of the noncore, legacy segments, impacting core SaaS’ multiple. As a result, we value TCS using a SOTP, assigning a 5.0 times forward EV/Sales multiple to its core SaaS business which translates to a consol. EV/Sales multiple of 2.5 times.
“In takeout scenarios, we see meaningfully higher implied valuations, driven by Tecsys’ scarcity value as a scaling, end-to-end sector leader, with improving ARR durability, and a clear path to typical SaaS margins, all of which would be strong attributes in the eyes of potential acquirers, in our view.”
In a report written before Tuesday’s new wave of U.S. strikes against Iran titled In Like A Lion, Out Like a Lamb: A Quarter Defined by WTI Volatility, National Bank Financial’s energy equity team, led by analysts Dan Payne and Travis Wood, said their “commodity assumptions remain reasonable in the US$70-75 per barrel range” heading into second-quarter earnings season for Canada’s energy sector.
“With a quicker than expected ramp in vessel flow in and out of the Strait, we reduced our Q3 price to capture this, but flag the issue of physical supply ramping to meet what appears to be a mounting overhang of empty tankers,” they added. “With global inventory of oil and products continuing to trend at the bottom of the 5-year range, we remain constructive on the fundamental backdrop for oil prices, confused by extreme prices of refined products.”
For equities, the analysts continue to see “operational and financial strength” across their coverage universe, which they say is “underpinned by valuations that have compressed meaningfully, reflecting a 30-per-cent discount to January value with pristine balance sheets and FCF wedges continuing to support buybacks.”
“While momentum for the gas-names lags, the benefit of liquids exposure should help generate incremental cash flows this quarter, while the trend of WCSB consolidation (in particular within the Montney) is likely to continue (especially in the face of current valuations),” they said.
While the analysts made modest adjustments to their forecasts, lowering second-quarter cash flow per share and production estimates by 5 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively, they continue to see enticing opportunities throughout the sector.
“The commodity-price volatility of recent months has been driven largely by geopolitical headlines and temporary spot oversupply rather than a structural deterioration in underlying industry fundamentals,” they noted. “To illustrate the disconnect, we compare 2027 EV/DACF multiples based on commodity strips prior to the U.S./Iran conflict and at current strip prices following the subsequent crude oil selloff and equity weakness. Despite stronger balance sheets and substantial free cash flow generation through Q1 and estimates for Q2, our coverage is trading at an average discount of almost 1.5 times on 2027 multiples, with virtually every company under our coverage trading at a lower valuation multiple today than prior to the conflict. We note TVE is the lone exception; however, we view this movement more as a function of the stock closing its valuation gap versus peers, driven by improved fundamentals following the recent divestiture of Charlie Lake assets and repositioning as pure-play Clearwater discussed previously.
“In our view, valuations have compressed meaningfully, with the sector now trading at an 30-per-cent discount to January levels despite pristine balance sheets and FCF generation that continues to support buybacks. We believe this creates an increasingly compelling setup for investors, as business quality has continued to improve through stronger financial positions, disciplined capital allocation, sustainable shareholder returns, and attractive dividend yields.”
With their forecast tweaks, the analysts made these target changes:
- Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR-T, “outperform”) to $12 from $13. The average is $9.83.
- Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T, “sector perform”) to $214 from $212. Average: $141.58.
- InPlay Oil Corp. (IPO-T, “outperform”) to $22.50 from $27.50. Average: $28.20.
- Ovintiv Inc. (OVV-N/OVV-T, “outperform”) to US$83 from US$82. Average: US$70.80.
- Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY-T, “outperform”) to $30 from $29. Average: $27.
- Strathcona Resources Ltd. (SCR-T, “outperform”) to $66 from $68. Average: $52.
- Tenaz Energy Corp. (TNZ-T, “outperform”) to $91 from $90. Average: $80
- Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP-T, “outperform”) to $26 from $25. Average: $19.13.
“Our updated target prices imply a total return of 60 per cent, with our Outperform and Sector Perform names returning 64 per cent and 48 per cent on average, respectively. We have made no rating change,“ they noted.
When Aritzia Inc. (ATZ-T) releases its latest financial results on Thursday after the bell, Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li is expecting "another outstanding quarter with robust comp sales, supported by excellent execution (strong product assortment, inventory, enhanced marketing, increasing brand awareness, outsized e-com growth etc)."
“To the extent ATZ continues to benefit from operational momentum and the K-shaped economy, we believe there is upside to FY27 guidance later this year,” he added. This, along with the investor day in October providing longer-term growth plans, should support ATZ’s premium valuation (approximately 30 times forward P/E)."
For the first quarter of the Vancouver-based clothing retailer’s 2027 fiscal year, Mr. Li is forecasting revenue of $925-million, meeting the top of its guidance range and $3-million above the consensus (versus $663-million in 2026). He is projecting adjusted earnings per share of 87 cents, which is a penny below the Street but up 45 cents from the same period a year ago.
“Our estimates are largely unchanged and in line with consensus and at the high end of management’s guidance,” he said. “These include 30.5-per-cent comp sales, 39.5-per-cent revenue growth, 250bps gross margin expansion and 80bps SG&A rate reduction.
“We believe top-line strength continues to be supported by many factors, including a strong product assortment (spring/summer collection), enhanced inventory position, strategic investments in marketing, growing brand awareness in the U.S., mobile app launch in October 2025 (we estimate strong early adoption with the app accounting for more than 30 per cent of e-comm revenue translating into high-single digit incremental comps), international website and real estate expansion (new and repositioned boutiques). Continued strength in observed Bloomberg ALT-data also corroborates our expectation of strong revenue performance. Gross margin expansion should be driven by lower markdowns, IMU improvement and leverage on store occupancy costs, partly offset by 200 basis points incremental headwinds from tariffs/elimination of the de minimis. Scaling and smart spending initiatives should drive SG&A rate improvement.”
While he modestly increased his full-year earnings expectation, Mr. Li reaffirmed a “buy” rating and 12-month target of $175 for Aritzia shares. The average on the Street is $177.25.
“Following last quarter’s very strong “‘beat and raise’, the stock appreciated as much as 20 per cent before giving back most of the gains,” he noted. “We believe this likely reflects moderating expectations given ongoing macro uncertainties and lapping tough comps. To the extent ATZ continues to benefit from the K-shaped economy and growth drivers noted above, we believe upward revisions to FY27 guidance are possible but too early after 1Q results. This along with the investor day should support ATZ’s premium valuation.”
Analysts at TD Securities are expecting bullish commentary from North American trucking companies during second-quarter earnings season, “driven by continued momentum on the supply side due to regulatory enforcement.”
“Carriers are seeing stable demand with early positive reads on peak season,” they explained. “Transport valuations limit material upside surprises in our view, and look for core demand (for both retail and industrial) improvements for next leg of earnings momentum.”
In a client report previewing earnings season, the analysts adjusted estimates for the truckload and logistics group.
“Dry van spot rates continue to outpace seasonality, though normalized following Road Check in May,” they said. “Spot rates continue to track well above last year’s levels; the rate strength is almost entirely driven by capacity reductions. We estimate that nominal spot rates still need to be 20 per cent higher to reach parity with 2014 levels on an inflation-adjusted basis. Carriers describe demand as ‘stable’; the Cass Freight Index shows shipments improving but still negative year-over-year, pointing to a gradual recovery in freight demand. We are beginning to hear early signs of optimism surrounding peak season ‘this may be the first real peak season since 2021′. An acceleration of imports has suggested that some incremental strength; the Executive Director of the PoLA attributed the growth inventory replenishment, concerns about fuel costs, trade policy uncertainty, and preparing for peak season. A recent channel check with a TL executive stated that they are already having some conversations with shippers around peak season planning.
“We expect commentary from carriers through earnings to be very bullish on the trucking cycle and capacity reductions. The DOT has not taken their foot off the gas on its enforcement crackdown, and a trucking executive recently said ‘we are still in batting practice’ when we asked about what inning we are in regarding truckload capacity. While secular tailwinds should continue into 2H, costs (excluding diesel that has declined meaningfully off highs) continue to creep up for carriers that may limit upside to margins; a trucking executive recently said ‘we got a 15-per-cent rate increase on a contract, but the carrier group raised their cost by 15 per cent’. Driver pay has re-entered the conversation, along with broader inflation trends increasing and insurance headwinds.”
From an investing perspective, the analysts are expecting bullish commentary but ‘re hard-pressed to find what incremental commentary will take these stocks another significant leg up, given current valuations."
“From a stock view, the truckload group is trading 5.7 turns above its five-year average, with the group average 51 per cent vs the S&P at up 10 per cent. The LTL [less-than-truckload] group is trading at 5.2 turns above its five-year average, with the group average up 53 per cent year-to-date. .... Given the driver year-to-date has been on the supply side, a strengthening consumer demand picture (as we heard through our preview calls we previously discussed) may offer more upside to earnings and give our names another leg up. For the LTL group, WPS trends turning into upside to tonnage trends may offer more upside to earnings.”
Analyst Tim James bumped his target for shares of Montreal-based TFI International Inc. (TFII-N, TFII-T) to $154 from $153, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is US$160.11.
In other analyst actions:
* Seeing an attractive entry point due to share underperformance since a seismic event at its Kamoa-Kakula mine in May 2025, Morgan Stanley’s Carlos De Alba upgraded Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN-T) to “overweight” from “equalweight” and raised his price target to $13.20 from $12.00. The average target is $13.79,
* In a quarterly preview for U.S. medical technology companies, Citi’s Joanne Wuensch raised her Bausch + Lomb Corp. (BLCO-N, BLCO-T) target to US$21 from US$19 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$18.71.
“Now one year past the enVista IOL recall, management continues to play offense, balancing several global new product launches,” she said. “Quarterly revenue deliveries have been largely consistent, with some hiccups here and there, and we are anticipating another top-line and bottom-line beat in the 2Q26. Underlying the consistent Vision Care and Consumer results have been strong consumer trends and a steady cadence of product launches across the franchises, supported by a market growing reliably mid-single-digits. We expect this strength to persist in 2Q26 as management continues to roll out its daily SiHy portfolio worldwide and recently launched products like PreserVision AREDS3 and Blink Triple Care Preservative Free (PF) gain traction.”
On the broader sector, she added: “As we prepare for 2Q26 we find investors looking forward, not just to the 2Q or 2H but to 2027+, as we move from diagnosing the patient to healing it. Instead of evaluating what has gone wrong with MedTech the focus has shifted to what could go right, particularly at these valuations. Yes, we expect the 2Q26 earnings calls to focus on the usual suspects: patient volumes, hospital capex, macro-economic challenges, as well as idiosyncratic company-specific headwinds, and while we don’t think 2Q26 will assuage these concerns, it could create a holding pattern from which to build. For the quarter, given the skittish trading environment, we prefer higher-quality stocks that may be positioned for a catch-up trade, thus our Top Picks are ABT, DXCM, and SYK, removing EW and ISRG. We are also opening a Positive Catalyst Watch on GEHC and ISRG and a Negative Catalyst Watch on HAE.”