Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Mohamed Sidibé upgraded Uranium Royalty Corp. (UROY-Q, UR-T) to an “outperform” rating from “sector perform” following Tuesday’s close of its acquisition of the 92-per-cent interest in the Sweetwater Entities held by Orion Resource Partners and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, citing “the addition of a cash-generating soda ash royalty portfolio with embedded growth and land optionality.”
The US$1.14-billion deal involves moving Sweetwater, which includes royalty assets and landholdings in Wyoming, Utah and Colorado, into a newly formed U.S.-domiciled parent company, also named Uranium Royalty Corp., resulting in the combination of the company and the Sweetwater Entities.
New URC common stock was listed and posted for trading on Nasda at the opening on Tuesday under the ticker symbol UROY. The former URC shares were delisted from the TSX at the end of the session. URC has applied to cease being a reporting issuer in Canada.
"Overall, Sweetwater adds immediate FCF, long-life soda ash royalties, embedded growth and land optionality, partially offset by leverage, NAV dilution and lower uranium exposure on a NAV and revenue basis,“ added Mr. Sidibé after coming off research restriction.
“We expect the CF generation from the soda ash royalties to provide an opportunity to increase uranium royalties exposure in the medium to long-term as the company turns FCF positive post interest and debt repayment later in the decade. Plenty of upside remains within our model on the soda ash brownfield expansions, as well as the unearthing of value from the vast land package acquired. We expect any re-rate to depend on the company’s ability to derive additional value from its vast land package through opportunities outside of Soda ash."
The analyst expects the acquisition to increase fiscal 2027 EBITDA to US$38-million from a loss of US$8-million previously and FCF before interest/debt repayment to US$76-million versus US$4-million previously. By 2031, he now sees EBITDA and FCF of US$86-million and US$87-million.
“Sweetwater’s land package offers potential revenue from renewables, uranium and additional soda ash leasing,” Mr. Sidibé said. “We include $550-million of value, primarily for fee surface acreage, based on benchmarked per-acre values, including Sweetwater’s recent land sale at $800/acre.
“We forecast FY27 net debt of $578-million and net debt/EBITDA of 15 times, declining to $445-million and 5 times by FY31. While elevated, portfolio FCF should support interest and principal repayments. Additionally, the transaction turns URC currently into a more diversified company with uranium royalties now representing 13 per cent of total project NAV (including land package value).”
The analyst now has a US$3.75 target for the Vancouver-based company’s Nasdaq-listed shares. The average on the Street is US$4.50.
Following “another clean beat-and-raise” from Celestica Inc. (CLS-N, CLS-T), CIBC World Markets analyst Todd Coupland thinks the Street’s forecast for the electronics manufacturer are “too low and the numbers need to move up.”
“Q2/26 was ahead across the board, and 2026/2027 targets moved well above FactSet consensus,” he said. “The key message: 2027 is not a fade year. Management now expects growth to accelerate after 65 per cent in 2026, with faster EPS growth on margin expansion. The new 2027 framework — $34-billion revenue (23-per-cent beat) and $20 EPS (30-per-cent beat) — is far above FactSet consensus at $27.6B and $15.30.”
TSX-listed shares of the Toronto-based company jumped 9.5 per cent on Tuesday after it quarterly revenue of US$4.7-billion, topping the Street’s forecast by 8.1 per cent. Adjusted earnings per share jumped to US$2.54, topping the consensus estimate of US$2.29 and a steep jump from US$1.39 a year ago.
“CLS remains in positive-revision territory as visibility and share gains improve at our estimate of CLS customers including GOOGL, META, AMZN, OpenAI and hyperscalers tied to AMD Helios. We see the muted reaction as sector-driven and a buy opportunity at an attractive relative valuation,” said Mr. Coupland.
“Celestica’s improved visibility reflects its leadership in data centre networking switches and expanding enterprise server programs. We also see a clearer multi-year ramp-up for 1.6T networking programs starting in late 2026 and accelerating into 2027, supported by multiple customers and its strategic partners including AVGO. Finally, for 2027, we expect at least two new customers/platforms, OpenAI and AMD Helios, to each contribute more than 10 per cent of revenue.”
The analyst now thinks its deserves a premium valuaton, pointing to “strengthening AI datacentre capex visibility which now extends to 2029, ongoing upward revisions, and Celestica’s improving mix versus networking and EMS peers.”
Accordingly, reaffirming his “outperformer” rating, Mr. Coupland raised his target to US$500 from US$480, pointing to several factors, including heightened GenAI demand through 2029 and a revenue re-acceleration. The average is US$445.
“Valuation remains attractive: In our view, CLS continues to screen well versus EMS peers (FLEX, JBL) and select networking peers (ANET, Accton [2345-TPE], CSCO, PSTG) given its growth profile and improving mix,” he concluded.
Elsewhere, RBC’s Paul Treiber increased his target to US$450 from US$440 with an “outperform” rating.
“Celestica is executing well, with share gains, an increasing mix of high- quality revenue, and improving visibility to growth. Moreover, Celestica’s valuation is increasingly attractive,” said Mr. Treiber.
* Barclays’ Tim Long to US$430 from US$441 with an “overweight” rating.
“CLS Q2 results were strong, with 8-per-cent top-line beat driven by Enterprise segment. Meaningful FY27 revenue guidance raise to more than 65-per-cent growth, with growth across existing customers and new program,” he said.
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Maurice Choy expects a “strong” second-quarter performance from Gibson Energy Inc.’s (GEI-T) Marketing segment to “reignite the market’s attention on the potential benefits (and surprises) this business can bring in terms of generating capital-light cash flows to de-lever and/or fund long-term projects.”
“While we see upside ahead (particularly if volatility from the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict continues), we opt for a more measured outlook on Marketing, and we choose to remain focused on the company’s increasingly tangible near-term opportunities associated with having greater WCSB crude oil pipeline egress ahead,” he added. “As we do so, we anticipate Gibson Energy’s capital allocation balance between de-leveraging and equity self-funding growth will be topical.”
Shares of the Calgary-based company jumped 5.6 per cent on Tuesday after it reported second-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $169-million. topping both Mr. Choy’s $159-million estimate and the consensus of $157-million. Discounted cash flow per share of 55 cents was also above projections (52 cents and 51 cents, respectively) and up 6 cents from the previous quarter.
“As Gibson Energy continues to anticipate deploying up to $1-billion of growth capital through 2030, the prospects of seeing up to 1.7 million b/d of incremental WCSB pipeline egress by 2035 should elevate investor confidence in the realism of the company’s outlook,” the analyst said. “As a base case, we anticipate many of these opportunities may come into service closer to the end of the decade; however, management may be positioned to advance its initiatives and share timely updates in the coming quarters, thereby spurring continued investor interest in the stock.
“Marketing: Reigniting investor focus. The stronger-than-expected Q2/26 Marketing EBITDA will naturally motivate certain investors to raise their expectations for the segment, in our view, particularly if the Middle East conflict continues to generate more time and location-based opportunities for the business. While the company may outperform even the $40 million upper-end of its 2026 guidance range, big picture, we like management’s recent resetting of the company’s stock investment thesis more towards its higher-valued Infrastructure business, which we believe has led to durable favour among many long-term investors.”
Keeping an “outperform” rating for Gibson shares, Mr. Choy increased his target to $33 from $30. The average on the Street is $31.50.
" We revised 2026E-2027E EBITDA mainly due to Q2/26 results and improved Marketing outlook. We introduce 2028E EBITDA of $765 million, representing 6-per-cent growth year-over-year, reflecting back-decade-loaded growth and near-term de- leveraging within an equity self-funded model. We roll forward our valuation, maintain our forward valuation multiple range, and increase our PT," he explained.
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $36 from $35 with an “outperform” rating.
“We’ve increased our estimates and target modestly following a strong second quarter, with what appears likely to be persistent Marketing tailwinds and a strong Infrastructure backdrop. We continue to view the risk/reward positively, and reiterate our Outperform rating,” said Mr. Barth.
* ATB Cormark’s Nate Heywood to $34 from $32 with an “outperform” rating.
“We have largely left estimates unchanged beyond the incorporation of actual Q2/26 results in our model as it reflects management’s expectation for Marketing EBITDA to be trending toward the high-end of its $40-million annual EBITDA range for 2026. Given the growing optimism in WCSB growth and new infrastructure development opportunities, we have increased our terminal growth rate by 10 basis points,” said Mr. Heywood.
* National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $34 from $33 with an “outperform” rating.
In a report previewing its second-quarter earnings release on Aug. 7 titled A Long Road Back, ATB Cormark analyst Jeff Fenwick downgraded Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) to “underperform” from “market perform” previously, warning the results will “feature a continued contraction of the loan book along with elevated credit losses.”
“While we expect to see some modest improvement in key metrics, the reality is that the business is set to continue to materially contract, earnings are likely to be negative/muted for several quarters, and a viable longerterm business plan (capable of producing an attractive ROE) has yet to be articulated. goeasy’s share price has rallied off the lows, now near book value, which to us looks stretched given the continued challenges facing the company,” he added. “We therefore move our rating to Underperform.”
Mr. Fenwick is hoping the Mississauga-based financial services company will release for details of a business plan for the future, although he warns a full strategy may not materializes until later in the year.
“We may get some indication of the plans for LendCare, with respect to whether the unit will be fully shuttered or if particular product sets will be maintained, to support future growth,” he said. “With over 40 per cent of the loan book tied up in this unit, it will take many quarters for it to run-off and for the easyfinancial unit to back-fill loan assets. Our model reflects revenue continuing to fall quarter-over-quarter through Q1/27 before beginning to return to growth, with GSY reporting negative earnings through that period, before returning toward profitability in mid-2027.”
His target for Goeasy shares remains $35. The average on the Street is $37.
“Troubled lending platforms typically trade below book value: GSY has rallied off of prior lows and has recently been trading near the Q1/26 BVPS of $49.97,” he said. “Our forecast calls for BVPS to continue to contract, reaching $46.66 at year-end. With the significant risks and challenges facing the firm, alongside continued negative earnings results, we have been using a 0.75 times on BVPS, which underpins our $35.00 target price.”
“While our forecast may prove too conservative, the significant headwinds that goeasy is facing warrant a cautious approach. Troubled lenders rarely turn performance around in just a few quarters, and we do not expect the Q2 release to offer data points material enough to drive valuation higher. Given the negative return to our target price, we downgrade our recommendation.”
Citing the future impact of its recent US$70-million acquisition of the tolling solutions business of Conduent Business Services LLC, ATB Cormark analyst Gavin Fairweather raised Quarterhill Inc. (QTRH-T) to a “top pick” recommendation from “outperform” ahead of its quarterly earnings release.
“While Q2 results will not include the contribution from the recent transformational Conduent transaction, we expect continued solid momentum in the base business underpinned by organic growth, profitability enhancement and improved seasonality (sequentially),” he said. “After further digestion of the Conduent news, we are increasing our estimates for the pro forma company. When combined with the recent stock check-back, there is meaningful upside in the stock to discount the current profile, before accounting for further M&A or RFP wins, such that we move to Top Pick from Outperform.”
Mr. Fairweather raised his target for the Toronto-based company’s shares to $5 from $4.40. The average is $2.25.
“Quarterhill’s stock has had a strong move year-to-date given contract momentum driving backlog growth, excitement on new platform competitiveness on a large volume of outstanding RFPs, profitability enhancements, the debt refinancing and the Conduent news,” he said.
“However, we are increasingly confident the post-Conduent Quarterhill is a much larger and more profitable business than the stock is discounting, and we will be looking for confirmatory evidence on the Q2 conference call. On our new estimates, the stock is trading at just 5.2 times EBITDA on C27, falling to 4.3 times on C28, which we view as highly attractive given the MSD-HSD [mid-to-high-single-digits] organic growth, a $2-billion backlog, margin upside beyond C28, and M&A optionality. With a bit less visibility on our forward estimates, we are lowering our target multiple on C27 EBITDA to 9.0 times (inline with more mature comparables) from 10.0 times previously, but the lift in estimates increases our target to $5.00 from $4.40 previously. We note that if we placed a 9.0-times multiple on our maiden C28 estimates, our target would rise to $6.80, with further upside from M&A (post-Conduent digestion Management has sights set on Europe’s large tolling market). Given our view of significant further stock upside and minimal downside, we are upgrading Quarterhill to Top Pick from Outperform previously.”
While acknowledging “the backdrop of ongoing oil price volatility related to the Iran conflict, elevated crude prices, and value-oriented consumer spending,” RBC Dominion Securities’ retail analyst Irene Nattel is expected a “solid” earnings season from North American convenience store operators, reaffirming her “constructive view” due to “relative strength in gas margins, positive management commentary on demand trends, and better than expected CQ1 results with momentum continuing into CQ2.”
“U.S. c-store names continue to deliver strong 2026 share price performance with investors looking for relative stability in the staples space,” she said in a client report. “[Alimentation Couche Tard Inc., ATD-T] notably re-rated post-Q4/F26 as the strongest U.S. same-store sales print in three years (up 3.4 per cent) and exceptional fuel margins began to close the valuation gap to publicly-traded peers. [Casey’s General Stores Inc. and Murphy USA Inc.] valuations remain above the high end of their long-term trading bands on EV/EBITDA, with CASY leading the space reflecting its attractive inside-store mix, unit growth cadence, geographic footprint, and now a visible 3-year plan to F29.
“ATD’s stock, while having re-rated, continues to trade around long-term averages as the key to sustained multiple expansion remains consistent delivery against the financial framework — a thesis increasingly supported by the data."
Ms. Nattel reaffirmed her “constructive view” on Montreal-based Couche-Tard, calling it her “best idea with valuation re-rating potential as KPIs continue to improve.”
She’s projecting first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings per share of 89 cents, up 14 per cent year-over-year but 4 cents under the consensus estimate on the Street, with U.S. same-store sales slowing slightly to 3.0 per cent from 3.4 per cent in the previous quarter. She blames that decline on “poor Memorial Day Weather, tighter consumer spending partially offsetting ongoing traffic recovery, mix optimization and price/ value initiatives.”
“Key investor focus remains on fundamentals, notably sustained acceleration of SSS and the ability to deliver on the F2026-F2030 financial framework (6-8 per cent/more than 10-pr-cent EBITDA/EPS CAGRs),” said Ms. Nattel. “We maintain a high degree of confidence in our long-term thesis, with Q4/F26 having marked a fourth consecutive quarter of accelerating U.S. SSS (up 3.4 per cent), positive traffic, and outsized fuel margins reflecting geopolitical-related crude volatility and ATD’s supply chain execution.
“Management indicated Q1/F27 trends are ‘very similar to Q4′ with improving volumes and robust fuel margins, reinforcing that the growth algorithm is intact. Europe is increasingly contributing to growth, supported by strong B2B fuel volumes, growing EV charging income, and accelerating TotalEnergies synergies. Catalysts for re-rating, in our view, include i) traction and cadence of SSS and SSG recovery; ii) gas margin sustainability as geopolitical volatility normalizes; iii) progress on Core+More strategy execution, notably food, digital/loyalty, and supply chain; iv) continued momentum in Europe including synergy delivery and organic growth; v) potential M&A and/or, vi) NCIB execution."
Maintaining her “outperform” rating for Couche-Tard shares, Ms. Nattel raised her target to $111 from $106 to reflect a “roll forward of valuation basis to F28E and modest estimate revisions.” The average is $102.
In other analyst actions:
* ATB Cormark’s Stefan Ioannou, who is currently the lone analyst covering Barksdale Resources Corp. (BRO-X), upgraded his rating to “speculative buy” from “sector perform” with a 25-cent target, down from 40 cents.
“Barksdale’s flagship Sunnyside project in southern Arizona is located directly adjacent to (down-plunge extension of) the world-class Taylor zinc-lead-silver deposit (US$3.3-billion Hermosa project under construction) acquired by South32 in 2018 via the $2.1-billion friendly premium takeover of Arizona Mining.” he said. “We believe ‘tangible’ exploration upside, coupled with well-advanced Taylor ‘mine’ development next door, sets the stage for a significant market rerating—and potential company takeover interest, also cognizant (Sunnyside potential aside) Barksdale’s successfully permitted unpatented land position could also benefit South32’s (spatially constrained) exploration efforts in the area.”
“Barksdale’s recent share price decline has prompted us to revisit our ‘pro forma’ equity financing price assumptions, which in turn have prompted a revised target price of $0.25 per share (from $0.40). Connotation of said revision aside, our new target decrease, relative to Barksdale’s current market price, nevertheless implies a 28% return—prompting a revised Speculative Buy rating (from Sector Perform). In addition to balance sheet (dilutive debt repayment and exploration funding) considerations, key risks to our valuation include exploration success (or lack thereof)."
* In response to the late Tuesday release of in-line quarter results, National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine raised his target for Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO-T) shares to $95 from $93, keeping a “sector perform” rating, while TD Cowen’s Mario Mendonca increased his target to $106 from $98 with a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $94.
“We characterize GWO’s Q2/26 results as good but skewed toward strength in CRS (reinsurance), rather than Empower. Solid earnings growth in the US Retirement & Wealth (margins) was tempered by elevated participant outflows in Retirement and weaker net flows in Wealth. A nearly 20-per-cent ROE in the quarter and a doubling of the NCIB support GWO remaining our top pick among the life companies,” said Mr, Mendonca.
* Mr. Mendonca cut his Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T) target to $345 from $347 with a “buy” rating, while Barclays’ Alex Scott reduced his target to $344 from $352 with an “overweight” rating. The average is $325.
“IFC missed our estimates and consensus by 9 per cent,” said Mr. Mendonca. “Q2/26 operating EPS $3.17 (down 39 per cent year-over-year) vs. our $3.50 (cons. $3.51). DWP [direct written premiums] up 4 per cent (forecast 6 per cent); earned premium was in line. EPS miss from higher expenses (approximately 10 cents per share in nonrecurring premium taxes) & higher large losses (drove the miss in underlying claims), which management described as an anomaly (no trend in years/broker/underwriter). Large losses support firmer pricing.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Tania Armstrong-Whitworth initiated coverage of Healwell AI Inc. (AIDX-T) with a “speculative buy” rating and $1.75 target, while Scotia’s Kevin Krishnaratne cut his target to $1.50 from $2 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $2.34.
“AIDX has evolved from a Canadian healthcare AI company into a scaled global healthcare technology platform through a series of strategic acquisitions, culminating with the acquisition of Orion Health last year,” Ms. Armstrong-Whitworth said. “Today, the company combines AI-enabled clinical decision support with enterprise healthcare software and interoperability infrastructure, providing access to over 150 million patient lives across 11 countries. We believe this combination creates a differentiated competitive advantage by allowing AI to be deployed directly within clinician workflows rather than as standalone applications. Supported by a strategic relationship with WELL Health, a growing base of recurring software revenue, and significant cross-selling opportunities across its software and AI businesses, we believe AIDX is well-positioned to deliver durable organic growth and increasing operating leverage over the coming years.”
* Citi’s Scott Gruber raised his Ovintiv Inc. (OVV-N, OVV-T) to US$68 from US$66 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$70.
“OVV’s 2Q26 release was highlighted by continued base production outperformance as stacked innovation, most notably the surfactant program that drove a 9-per-cent uplift on respective wells, delivered measurable outperformance and a shallowing decline profile,” said Mr. Gruber. “Consequently, the company raised 2026 volume guidance by 1 per cent while holding capital investment flat. Gains were concentrated in the Permian, where improved productivity of the existing base as well as robust new well productivity, has lowered the reinvestment burden required to sustain volumes. On capital allocation, management signaled an intention to learn further into buybacks, highlighting expectations of ~60% of adjusted FCF returned to shareholders in 2H26. Combined with potential TSX index inclusion in late September, we remain bullish on OVV post results.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho raised his target for Superior Plus Corp. (SPB-T) by 25 cents to $8 with a “hold” rating ahead of the Aug. 6 release of its second-quarter results. The average is $8.75.
“Seasonally, 2Q is unimportant — weather is a non-factor, elevated tank levels exiting 1Q remove any inventory tailwind and churn appears to have stabilized post-winter. We trimmed our 2Q EBITDA to US$29-million (consensus US$34-million) on softer propane. Focus turns to Certarus — the datacenter pipeline remains robust, with MSU purchases set to begin later this year,” said Mr. Ho.
“We reiterate our Hold rating: (1) the shares are fairly valued; (2) while new datacenter contracts are encouraging, they require a hefty upfront capital outlay; (3) questions surrounding customer churn; and (4) elevated leverage.”
* Raymond James’ Luke Davis moved his Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (TVE-T) target to $16 from $15, which is the average, with an “outperform” rating.
“Tamarack’s second quarter print came with a bit of disposition noise but gave us the first credible look at the now Clearwater pure-play. Following the deal’s June 15 close, the net cash company is capable of running a fully funded, growth-focused capital plan while supporting its increased dividend and active share buyback program. The waterflood program continues to screen amongst the most effective uses of capital in the basin today and the impact is nudging Tamarack’s asset-level production towards (or above) primary peaks. With only 16 per cent of Clearwater production supported by waterflood in 2Q26 and a target of over 38 per cent by year-end, we expect continued momentum and combined with ongoing design tweaks, a range of exploration targets, and broader portfolio optimization, we see plenty of fundamental upside; reiterate Outperform and increasing target to $16/share,” said Mr. Davis.