Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
TD Cowen analyst Mario Mendonca thinks “near-trough” valuations for Canadian property and casualty insurance companies present a “favourable setup” for investors as earnings season nears.
“P&C stocks have underperformed banks and lifecos over the last twelve months, and now trade near trough multiples,” he said. “We expect continued top-line growth and limited drag from large commercial property softness to support P&C stocks from here. Longer term, we see potential catalysts in: 1) better-than-expected synergies (DFY-TRV Canada), 2) recovery in UK&I and potential M&A/NCIB (IFC), and 3) U.S. platform growth (TSU).”
In a client report released Wednesday, Mr. Mendonca pointed to several themes for investors to watch as companies release their quarterly reports. They include: “a) strong underlying conditions (esp. personal lines) but moderating commercial topline, b) elevated CAT quarter, c) strong U.S. growth.”
“Elevated CAT losses in Q2 & Q3, along with structurally higher claims costs should support firm markets in personal property,” he added. “Personal auto should also remain firm, although the pace of rate increases in Ontario is slowing (lower bodily injury costs). Large commercial property should remain soft until profit erosion drives rate increases (IFC & DFY have limited exposure).
“For DFY, the pace of TRV Canada expense synergies running ahead of schedule, with further top-line upside. IFC should benefit from greater clarity on capital deployment and progress on reaching a low 90s CR in the UK&I business. Both DFY and IFC pre-announced CAT losses. Investors will likely look through the one-time impact.”
Mr. Mendonca made a trio of target price adjustments to stocks in the space. They are:
- Definity Financial Corp. (DFY-T, “buy”) to $87 from $93. The average is $87.36.
- Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T, “buy”) to $303 from $345. Average: $318.83.
- Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T, “buy”) to $56 from $60. Average: $57.39.
“We see a favourable risk-reward set up as multiples have contracted to levels that assume structurally lower ROE levels ... On an ex-AOCI basis, IFC and DFY trade at a P/BV multiple that are supported by lower ROE forecasts compared to our current 2026E-2028E estimates,” he said. “TSU trades at a low multiple relative to the trendline, pointing to meaningful upside as ROE expands due to higher investment income and future capital deployment in the U.S. platforms.
“P&C stock valuations should improve as 1) fears of AI-fueled pricing pressures subside, 2) firm personal lines markets continue to benefit carriers, 3) higher rates support structurally higher investment income, and 4) P&C firms benefit from company-specific catalysts.”
Turbulent macroeconomic conditions are weighing on investor sentiment toward both consumer and mortgage lenders heading into third-quarter earnings season, according to TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding and Sam Damiani.
In a client report released before the bell, the equity analysts reduced their target multiples for consumer lenders in their coverage universe to “reflect higher macro uncertainty and interest rates.” For mortgage lenders, they see the outlook for elevated bond yields raising projected dividend yields, however they reduced target prices.
“We do not expect higher short-term rates to impact pricing or consumer loan demand for non-prime consumer lenders (yields are already elevated),” they said. “However, we are slightly more cautious on non-prime credit performance under a higher inflation / interest rate backdrop. We expect higher short-term rates to increase the cost of debt on floating rate credit facilities.
“[For mortgage lenders], TD Strategy is forecasting the Canadian government yield curve to flatten somewhat by Q1/27 (higher short-term rates, while 2-year bond yields by comparison are relatively unchanged in 2027 vs. 2026). For the MICs we see potential for interest expense to increase somewhat while weighted average mortgage rates (impacts revenue) could remain stable vs current levels. We have reduced our multiples slightly to reflect the potential for higher interest rates to weigh on credit performance and market activity.”
With that view, the analysts made these target adjustments:
* Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp. (AI-T, “buy”) to $12.50 from $13. The average on the Street is $12.75.
Mr. Ryding: “We expect healthy quarter-over-quarter portfolio growth in Q3/26 following elevated repayment activity in 1H/26. Management expressed confidence towards the portfolio exiting 2026 above $900-million (vs. $860-million in Q2/26). Provisions for staged loans appear sufficient (ACL [allowance for credit losses] of 3.5 per cent compares to a 2.9-per-cent average since 2022). ”
* Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corp (FC-T, “buy”) to $12.50 from $13. Average: $12.50.
Mr. Damiani: “While our expectations for modest portfolio growth in Q3/26 (vs up 6 per cent quarter-over-quarter in Q2) remain possible (based on management’s Q2 commentary), we note that Firm’s Aug 31 portfolio update showed a slight 2-per-cent quarter-to-date decline, which could reflect timing of capital deployment. We also note that the portfolio update indicated a slight 23bps QTD decline in the AFR to 8.9 per cent (vs our estimate of 9.13 per cent for Q3/26). We will also be watching for changes in the Firm’s Stage 2 and Stage 3 loan balances, which have remained elevated over the past several quarters. ”
* Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T, “hold”) to $47 from $50. Average: $48.
Mr. Ryding: “We view the renewal of the Securitization Warehouse Facility I as an important funding step towards returning to loan growth in 2027 (we model nil growth in 2H/26, followed by 10 per cent/9 per cent in 2027 / 2028). We expect an operating loss in Q3/26 (vs. profitability in Q2/26) due to our forecast for 1) portfolio contraction q/q, 2) higher bad debt expense (vs. a PCL release in Q2/26), and 3) expense growth q/q (higher marketing expense). Our lower 2027 EPS forecast reflects higher operating expenses and a slightly lower portfolio yield (loan mix).”
* Timbercreek Financial Corp. (TF-T, “hold”) to $5.50 from $6.50. Average: $6.63.
Mr. Ryding: “We will be looking for updates on staged loans, which represented 22 per cent of the portfolio in Q2/26. Management has suggested a normalized target of 7-10 per cent for staged loans. We model elevated-yet-improving PCLs as Timbercreek works through resolving staged loans. We model flat portfolio growth (given the self-imposed leverage cap of 50 per cent).”
Mr. Ryding maintained a “buy” rating and $37 target for shares of Propel Holdings Inc. (PRL-T), exceeding the $35.42 average.
“We expect continued growth of the lending-as-a-service (LaaS) and MoneyKey Bank Service programs,” he said. “These programs represented 28 per cent of total revenue in Q2/26, up from a historical average of 20 per cent. We expect this capital lighter revenue mix shift to continue, pushing the revenue yield higher. Offsetting this is a slightly higher outlook for credit provisioning, expense growth, and interest expense.”
Ahead of the release of Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI-T) third-quarter earnings release on Nov. 4, National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar is predicting a sequentially improvement in sales, however he thinks the difficult economic backdrop “warrants slight trimmed estimates.”
“We model revenue to be 3.7 per cent higher year-over-year, improving vs. 1.6-per-cent growth in Q2/26,” he said in a client note. “We expect a recovery in Prepared Foods volumes, albeit still impacted by year-over-year pricing (recall, MFI noted that it may take a quarter or two for volume to recover following pricing actions). In addition, we expect benefits from continued volume growth and favourable channel mix in Poultry. We expect gross margin to improve largely due to favourable pork input costs and favourable mix (in poultry), partly offset by higher promotional activity, among other factors. Our proprietary index of select pork cuts (bellies, hams and trims) suggests input costs were a partial tailwind to MFI in Q3/26, all else equal (our index represents 45 per cent of non-poultry input costs); Q4/26 should obtain more benefit.
“Our review of commentary from select food operators suggests: (i) heightened consumer caution, although demand for protein remains relatively resilient, (ii) margin headwinds related to fuel costs, and (iii) favourable mix shift to branded and higher margin products.”
Mr. Shreedhar is now projecting revenue for the quarter of $1.048-billion, falling in line with the Street’s expectation and up from $1.011-billion a year ago, while his EBITDA estimate of $127-million is $1-million under the consensus but also up from fiscal 2025 (at $112-million).
He sees adjusted earnings per share coming in at 37 cents, matching his peers and up 16 cents from the same period a year ago. He attributes that 74-per-cent gain to “higher sales, EBITDA margin expansion, lower interest expense, lower D&A, and a lower tax rate (benefits EPS by $0.03 year-over-year).”
“We believe that MFI has the opportunity to deliver amongst the highest EBITDA margin within branded protein peers, with solid top line growth,” he said. “We acknowledge heightened risk, predominantly due to execution and commodity volatility. Valuation can re-rate higher if MFI demonstrates stable sales growth and EBITDA margin improvement over time, though execution against managements previously stated plan is key to establish investor confidence.”
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Maple Leaf shares, Mr. Shreedhar cut his target to $29 from $34 to reflect the impact of a “more challenged consumer backdrop” on his valuation model. The average is $35.50.
Citi analyst Bryan Burgmeier is expecting “generally solid” third-quarter financial reports from North American waste management companies, pointing to “improved July/Aug volume, higher recycled commodity prices and potential further bolt-on M&A.”
“While elevated interest rates & diesel costs bring incremental downside risk to 4Q volume, we estimate ’26 guides are intact as 2Q updates may have been potentially conservative and recycled commodities are a modest tailwind (estimate mid-single-digits growth from July to Oct),” he said. “As ’26 takes shape, potential preliminary ’27 outlooks may be most impactful to shares.
“We are sticking with RSG as our top pick given limited downside risk to NTM [next 12-month] estimates vs. peers, a potential 3Q revenue inflection in ES and a strong M&A pipeline. Buy-rated CLH is also well positioned into the print and could raise guidance for both segments.”
In a client report released early Wednesday, Mr. Burgmeier emphasized stocks in the space are “down 2.3 per cent over the last month, lagging the S&P 500 (up 2.4 per cent), and now trade near 13 times ’27 EBITDA, a modest discount to the 5-year average”
“Recent weakness may be driven by potential for further volume weakness given the rise in interest rates and higher diesel prices. Positively, we expect generally solid 3Q prints on potentially improved July/Aug volume, and fuel costs will be passed on via surcharges with minimal bottom line impact. We expect reiterated ’26 outlooks as trims to volume outlooks from 2Q calls were likely sufficiently conservative, and recycled commodities will be a modest tailwind (Citi est. avg. commodity baskets up 6 per cent from July to Oct),” he added.
For GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL-N, GFL-T), which moved its head office from Vaughan, Ont. to Miami Beach to win a greater following from index funds but remains incorporated in Ontario, he’s now sees a “pathway to $3-billion-plus EBITDA.”
“After closing the acquisition of Secure on 9/1, GFL may use the 3Q earnings to highlight updated run-rate earnings power and/or incremental growth levers into ’27,” he said. “We model $3.122-billion ’27 EBITDA (vs. consensus $3.127-billion) assuming double-digits year-over-year growth in legacy GFL (mid-single-digits price growth up 100 basis points underlying margin expansion + 1 quarter of unlapped contribution from Frontier) and $600-million EBITDA from Secure. We forecast $1.270-billion adj. FCF (vs. consensus $1.298-billion) after adding back $200-million growth capex ($100-$125-million legacy GFL).”
He maintained a “buy” rating and US$51 target for GFL shares. The average is US$55.06.
“Consistent with the 2Q earnings call, mgmt may provide an update on “unsolicited preliminary expressions of interest from multiple parties to take the company private.” Our base case assumes GFL remains public; a potential takeout in the low-to-mid $50’s may be less likely, in our view, as the stock approached $52/share in May ’25 and the average FactSet sell-side price target is $54/share. In the event GFL remains public, we’ve pointed to high-30s per share value based on the historical discount to large-cap peers," the analyst said.
“We are Buy rated on GFL as we believe the current valuation does not reflect medium-term growth potential from ongoing consolidation and ramping RNG earnings. We forecast a 9-per-cent ’24-’27 EBITDA CAGR [compound annual growth rate] from a positive net price spread, EPR contracts, and internal investments. With only mid-single-digits market share and a cleaner balance sheet, GFL is positioned to grow revenue low single digits per annum from roll-up acquisitions for the next decade, in our view.”
In a client report released before the bell titled Booked and busy after a surge in power orders, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Keith Mackey said Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T) “continues to demonstrate strong execution in BTM [Behind-the-Meter] power generation, with its backlog now exceeding 1.75GW following two large-scale data center awards.”
“We remain bullish on EFX shares for leading growth trend exposure, self-help enabled margin expansion, and improving FCF profile,” he added. “We have materially increased our 2028 estimates to reflect conversion of its data centre backlog.”
Mr. Mackey thinks the Calgary-based company’s “strong” bookings momentum “provides visibility for growth.”
“Enerflex secured a 1GW+ award to engineer, design, and fabricate behind-themeter natural gas-fired power generation for a data center customer,” he explained. Combined with its recent 450MW award, Enerflex’s power generation backlog now sits at 1.75GW. The company has converted a significant portion of the 2GW of potential opportunities it has evaluated, so we will be watching for pipeline replenishment in the years ahead. We have raised our 3Q26 bookings estimate by $549-million to $910-million and our 4Q26 booking estimates to $1,350-million.
“Modular power generation plays into Enerflex’s strengths. The 1GW + contract involves Enerflex designing, engineering, and fabricating the skids while the customer will supply the Caterpillar 3520 engines (2.5MW units) - a possibility we think many have overlooked. The contracts are structured with upfront deposits and milestone payments received ahead of costs incurred, resulting in a working capital-positive cash flow profile that we believe should reduce execution risk.”
Also touting its “capital-efficient growth” and expecting “strong” free cash flow growth “as backlog converts and capex normalizes,” Mr. Mackey raised his target for Enerflex shares to $35 from $33 with an “outperform” rating and reaffirming its spot on RBC’s “Global Energy Best Ideas list.” The average on the Street is $46.51.
Elsewhere, other analysts making changes include:
* Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $53 from $49 with an “outperform” rating.
“Our estimates and target move higher following the incremental ~1.0 GW ES order announced this morning, and we’re very encouraged by the momentum we’re seeing within the power vertical. Despite the positive market reaction, we continue to view the stock as attractively valued through any valuation lens. At the time of writing, we have EFX trading at less than 6 times our 2027 EBITDA estimate and less than 5 times our 2028 estimate, with a mid-teens sustaining FCF yield to boot. With what we’d argue is an underlevered balance sheet and plenty of additional upside optionality, we continue to view EFX as offering one of the best risk-adjusted returns in our coverage universe and reiterate our Outperform rating,” said Mr. Barth.
* ATB Cormark’s Tim Monachello to $56 from $52 with an “outperform” rating.
“EFX traded up 14 per cent on October 13, 2026, after announcing a contract to supply over 1.0GW ($1.15-billion revenue, $230-million gross margin, ATB estimate) of reciprocating natural gas fired power generation units for a large-scale North American data centre development,” he said. “While only moderately incremental to our revenue/EBITDA estimates through 2028 given manufacturing capacity constraints, the award materially improves EFX’s longer-term visibility, accelerates FCF realizations into 2026/2027, and adds long-duration aftermarket services opportunities. We now forecast EFX will exit 2028 with $2.9-billion Engineered Systems backlog, up from $1.9-billion previously; for context, we believe $2.9-billion of backlog would more than fully exhaust EFX’s 2029 ES capacity. All told, we increase our adj. EBITDAS estimates by $29-million (2 per cent) across our forecast horizon, and increase our price target.”
TD Cowen forestry product analyst Sean Steuart expects a “mixed bag” for third-quarter results in his coverage universe, anticipating “strong positive momentum” for packaging equities and “weaker sequential results for most wood-weighted names.”
“Many of our Q3 estimates are modestly below consensus, including all wood-weighted equities, except CFP,” he said in a report. “The sector is exposed to interest rate pressure and weakening consumer backdrop. Our top picks are WFG, LPX, and CFP. This report outlines expectations for the Q3/26 earnings season, updates our outlook through 2027, and introduces 2028 estimates for the forest product and packaging sector.”
“Key Q3/26 themes: 1) Slowing earnings momentum for wood-weighted equities. Q3/26 lumber and OSB price gains decelerated as rising borrowing costs further undermined affordability. 2) Positive q/q earnings momentum for packaging equities as prior price increase efforts roll through. Year-to-date, containerboard prices have increased 18-24 per cent to record nominal highs. 3) Modest cost inflation. We expect that surging diesel costs will be more evident in Q4/26 results. 3) Continued focus on balance sheet preservation.”
Following a series of forecast adjustments, including a reduction in his 2026 and 2027 lumber and OSB commodity price estimates by 4 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively, Mr. Steuart made these target moves:
- Adentra Inc. (ADEN-T, “buy”) to $48 from $46. The average is $50.72.
- Cascades Inc. (CAS-T, “buy”) to $20 from $19. Average: $19.42.
- Canfor Corp. (CFP-T, “buy”) to $18 from $20. Average: $17.83.
- Interfor Corp. (IFP-T, “hold”) to $15 from $16. Average: $17.83.
- KP Tissue Inc. (KPT-T, “hold”) to $13 from $14. Average: $13.13.
- Western Forest Products Inc. (WEF-T, “hold”) to $17 from $20. Average: $19.50.
- West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG-N/WFG-T) to US$86 from US$88. Average: US$83.98.
“Highest Ranked Equities Based on Valuation-Independent Qualitative Criteria: CCL.B, LPX, and WFG,” he added.
“Shuffling Top-Ranked Equities After Considering Current Valuation: WFG passes CCL.B as our top pick. Notable rank-based pecking order shuffles: Moving up: LPX to #2 from #6; Moving down: CCL.B to #4 from #1; CAS to #7 from #4.”
In other analyst actions:
* Stifel’s Cole McGill initiated coverage of Americas Gold and Silver Corp. (USA-T) with a “buy” rating and $12 target. The average on the Street is $12.17.
“USA is a growth oriented, U.S. focused silver producer with a management team with a history of underground mine revitalizations and successful exits,” said Mr. McGill. “USA’s flagship is the Galena Complex, one of the highest grade silver mines globally, yet previously chronically undercapitalized. Management is midway through a recapitalization plan aimed at going back to basics: i) increasing hoisting capacity, ii) increasing underground material handling in order to iii) change the mining method to drive productivity gains underground and a U.S. silver production CAGR of 58 per cent ’26-’28. This U.S. focused Ag growth represents an opportunity for rerate in the market. Primary silver producers lacking silver growth are generating significant FCF, with few assets offering multiple expansive U.S. focused growth.”
* Prior to the Oct. 28 release of its quarterly results, Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan lowered his Canadian Packers Inc. (CPKR-T) target to $17.50 from $20.50 with a “buy” rating, while BMO’s Tamy Chen reduced her target to $16 from $19 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $21.40.
“Our prior Q3/26 adjusted EBITDA forecast had assumed traditional seasonality would prevail, with pork cutout values strengthening in part due to summer grilling season demand in North America. That said, pork cutouts have been well below prior-year levels, partly due to (1) a slowdown in demand from China, which weighed on picnics and hams (roughly half of these cuts in the U,S, are exported), and (2) a number of factors weighing on pork bellies, though perhaps the most prevalent was softer QSR sales. Both were drivers of downward revisions to guidance for both Smithfield Foods and Tyson Foods,” Mr. Hannan said. “As a result, our adjusted EBITDA forecast for the quarter moves to $31 million, from $42 million previously.”
“In our view, CPKR’s overall scale in pork processing, higher value-added mix versus peers, optionality for margin expansion, and prospects for robust near- and long-term free cash flow generation are compelling. With that said, we prefer to wait to add to positions until after the quarter, when we believe the risk-reward profile should become more favourable.”
* ATB Cormark’s Stefan Ioannou raised his Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T) target to $55 from $50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $53.71.
“We recently toured Ero’s mines in Brazil—all three of which showed well. Further to this point, portfolio-wide ‘execution’ over the last several years is now well positioned to bear fruit in part through the utilization of ‘in-house’ developed innovative technology (AI) to enhance operational performance. Looking ahead, Ero’s next growth chapter, centred on Furnas mine development in support of an 150 ktpa consolidated copper production profile (from +80 ktpa currently), also continues to look to exploration upside spanning in-mine and near-mine opportunities to regional and greenfield potential while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation,” he said.
* National Bank’s Adam Shine trimmed his target for shares of Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T) to $71 from $74, keeping an “outperform” rating, ahead of the release of its quarterly results on Nov. 5. The average on the Street is $74.33.
* Stifel’s J. Parker Lane raised his target on Shopify Inc. (SHOP-Q, SHOP-T) to US$210 from US$180 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$175.84.
“Our 3Q survey gives us confidence in another clean beat, with growth accelerating to 35 per cent versus a ‘low-thirties’ guide,” he said. “For 4Q we expect another low-thirties growth guide. Against the Street at 30 per cent, that would leave room for upside and show the macro is not yet hitting merchant GMV.”
“Our Buy rating and $210 target price are based on a 29.8 times EV/gross profit multiple on our 2027 estimates. We believe Shopify deserves to trade at this premium as it continues to execute its share-gaining playbook in the e-commerce space (legacy replatforming, enterprise, B2B, international, payments) while extending its leadership through agentic commerce and compounding GMV at a multiple of the broader e-commerce market.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Bryce Adams reduced his Silver Tiger Metals Inc. (SLVR-X) to $1.60 from $1.75 with a “buy” rating after coming off research restriction. The average is $2.
“Silver Tiger closed its $100.1-million bought deal financing, issuing 100.05 million units at $1.00/ unit. Combined with $109-million in cash at the end of 2Q26, the financing fully funds the Stockwork project against our modelled initial capex of US$124-million. We view the update positively, as it materially de-risks project funding and allows management to focus on advancing construction and exploration at El Tigre,” said Mr. Adams.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige bumped his TMX Group Ltd. (X-T) target to $65 from $64 with a “buy” rating. The average is $65.70.
“As of last Thursday, TMX had reported all its trading and capital formation stats. Montreal Exchange derivatives trading volumes are sustaining their momentum, with futures volume up 43.3 per cent year-over-year. Capital formation activity cooled somewhat during July before spiking up again in August and September. Equities trading volume growth moderated, with TSX trading volumes showing mid-single-digit growth in Q3. We have made modest adjustments to our segment-level forecasts. Meanwhile, we have adjusted estimates for the timing of the RAFI and Cboe (AUS) acquisitions, which contributed 1.5 and 2 months in Q3, respectively. Overall, we estimate $484.5-millopn in revenues in Q3, up 15.7 per cent year-over-year (up 10-per-cent organic). In terms of adj EPS, we have $0.55 in Q3 (cons $0.58), up from $0.52 the prior year,” he said.