Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Equity analysts at National Bank see continued geopolitical and trade uncertainty supporting a bullish outlook for precious metals.
“With real rates declining throughout the year, heightened geopolitical risk and central banks remaining net purchasers, we have seen gold/silver prices respond positively, up 19 percent and 17 per cent year-to-date, respectively, and we remain bullish on the outlook for precious metal prices in the months ahead. We have updated our estimates, metals prices and FX rates to reflect the current price environment and have also increased our long-term gold and silver price forecasts to US$2,500/oz (was US$2,200/oz) and US$28.00/oz (was US$27.00/oz).
In a research report released Wednesday, the firm said it is maintaining a “cautious” near-term outlook for copper, pointing to elevated inventories, uncertain demand outlook and pending supply growth through the first half of the year.
“Copper prices have rallied in recent weeks on buying from traders looking to realize the arbitrage between COMEX and LME prices (which now stands at US$0.64/lb), ahead of U.S. implemented tariffs,” the analysts said. “Our more cautious near-term price assumptions continue to reflect uncertainty in the near-term outlook. We have also revisited our long-term price analysis, which remains based on incentive price analysis over the next decade and now uses US$4.20/lb long-term (2030+) - was US$3.90/lb.”
Meanwhile, for critical minerals, National Bank continues to expect near-term softness for uranium due to the turbulence brought on by the global tariff war, while it is also cautious in the near-term on lithium based on an oversupplied market.
“We have revised our near-term uranium spot prices lower to reflect the softness in prices from geopolitical and trade uncertainty,” he said. “We expect spot prices to rebound as we gain clarity and as contracting from utilities resume. Our long-term outlook remains unchanged, supported by the resilience of current term prices and backed by a resurgence of the nuclear sector. Our long-term price projection of US$85/lb is unchanged.
“Despite an expected positive EV demand growth in 2025, we continue to forecast an oversupplied market in 2025 and remain cautious on lithium prices near-term. We continue to model a growing deficit from 2028 and beyond which will require our incentive pricing of over US$1,450/t SC and $20,500/t LCE.”
With changes to their commodity price deck, the analysts made target price adjustments to the stocks in their coverage universe. For their top picks, the changes are:
Precious Metals
- Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA-T, “outperform”) tp $19.75 from $20.75. The average on the Street is $19.47.
- G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN-T, “outperform”) to $24 from $20. Average: $19.89.
- IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG-T, “outperform”) to $15 from $13.50. Average: $11.20.
- Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T, “outperform”) to $23 from $22. Average: $20.16.
- Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS-T, “outperform”) $52.50 from $45.25. Average: $40.07.
Royalty Companies
- Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (OR-T, “outperform”) to $35.50 from $34. Average: $30.61.
Base Metals
- Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T, “outperform”) at $15.50 (unchanged). Average: $14.79.
- Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T, “outperform”) to $17.50 from $17. Average: $15.89.
- Taseko Mines Ltd. (TKO-T, “outperform”) to $4.50 from $4.25. Average: $4.46.
- Ngex Minerals Ltd. (NGEX-T, “outperform”) at $17 (unchanged). Average: $17.14.
- Solaris Resources Inc. (SLS-T, “outperform”) to $10.50 from $10. Average: $13.30.
Critical Minerals
- Cameco Corp. (CCO-T, “outperform”) to $81 from $87. Average: $80.70.
- Denison Mines Corp. (DML-T, “outperform”) to $3.75 from $4.15. Average: $3.92.
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Scotia Capital analyst Konark Gupta thinks tariff uncertainty is threatening the recovery of Canadian transportation stocks more than the actual tariffs.
In a report released Wednesday, he reduced his first-quarter and full-year estimates by an average of 2-3 per cent and lowered his valuation multiples to reflect macroeconomic risks. That led to a 9-per-cent drop in his targets for stocks in his coverage universe.
“However, we maintain our ratings given the stocks have already pulled back and most are looking attractive on valuation,” he said. “While shares are more likely to move with the sentiment around tariffs in the short term, we see the best risk/reward in CJT with an immaterial direct exposure to U.S. tariffs and valuation at 12-year low. Potential contract win could be a positive catalyst for CJT. We also see strong risk/reward in trucks. MTL is more likely to rebound on M&A. TFII is in the show-me camp with upside risk dependent on U.S. LTL execution. We also like both Canadian rails and expect them to defend guidance, but the stocks are riding on tariff and macro sentiment. Overall, Q1 played out slightly weaker than expected, specifically for CNR, CP and TFII, due to weather and tariff noise, partially offset by some demand pull-forward. Tariff-related noise is lingering as consumer and business confidence is falling, which could negatively impact the coming quarters as well. We expect a Q1 miss from CJT, CP, MTL and TFII, while AND and CNR could be in line.”
Mr. Gupta’s changes are:
* Andlauer Healthcare Group Inc. (AND-T, “sector perform”) to $43 from $44.50. The average target is $49.08.
Analyst: “AND is trading at 9.5 times on our 2025E, slightly above its 9.1 times forward valuation at the time of IPO. We think U.S. TL [truckload] business recovery and potential M&A hold the key to multiple expansion. However, we are expecting U.S. TL to further weaken this year, partially offsetting mid-single digit organic growth in the Canadian business. AND is also well-positioned to make more acquisitions although deal timing and magnitude are difficult to predict.”
* Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T, “sector outperform”) to $139 from $165. Average: $156.75.
Analyst: “CJT is trading at 6.0 times, a trough level that was last seen 12 years ago. We view CJT as the most dislocated stock in our coverage as it has no direct exposure to U.S. tariffs, earnings are likely to further grow this year with the China contract that started in May 2024 (customer demand has been increasing), and it is well-positioned to win a new contract this year. Further, CJT could benefit from global supply chain dislocations resulting from tariff noise given its expanding fleet and worldwide reach. The company continues to enjoy solid moat with a dominating position in Canada (potential threat from Canadian passenger airlines has ended) and long-term contracts with minimum guarantees.”
* Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T, “sector outperform”) to $166 from $176. Average: $170.
* Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T, “sector outperform”) to $120 from $128. Average: $126.67.
Analyst: “We maintain SO ratings on CNR and CP as valuations have compressed to multi-year lows and we believe EPS can grow this year despite lingering tariff uncertainties, aided by self-help levers and easy comps. However, our targets have decreased to $166 for CNR (was $176) and $120 for CP (was $128) on 1.5-2.0 per cent reduction in estimates and 1.0 times compression in our target 2026 P/E. CNR is trading at 17.9 times on our 2025E, a six-year trough, while CP is at 21.2 times, its lowest since announcing the final KCS deal in 2021. We see upcoming catalysts in the form of OR execution at CNR and KCS synergies/shareholder returns at CP.”
* TFI International Inc. (TFII-T, “sector outperform”) to $150 from $193. Average: $156.40.
Analyst: “TFII is trading at 7.3 times EV/EBITDA and 14.1 times P/E, its lowest since 2H/22, but, more importantly, a steep discount to peers (weighted average) of 20 per cent and 34 per cent, respectively. In addition, TFII offers a more solid FCF yield of 12 per cent as compared to peers. While weak U.S. LTL [less-than truckload] execution in Q4/24 has weighed on investor sentiment (stock is down 43 per cent year-to-date) and U.S. LTL industry volumes have been declining y/y, we are encouraged by continued strength in U.S. LTL yield (ex-fuel) as well as management’s proven ability to turn around operations (we are expecting some results in 2H) and do more acquisitions to offset organic headwinds.”
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Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li predicts Dollarama Inc.’s (DOL-T) fourth-quarter 2025 results and fiscal 2026 outlook on Thursday will show same-store sales normalization “along with low double-digit EPS growth and strong FCF at both Dollarama and Dollarcity, with the latter possibly supporting a regular annual dividend.”
“Our positive view reflects relative near-term outperformance within our coverage universe given DOL’s strong earnings visibility against economic uncertainty, attractive long-term growth from Dollarcity, Mexico and Australia, solid balance sheet and FCF,” he said in a research note.
Mr. Li is forecasting earnings per share of $1.31, falling in line with the Street’s expectation, on same-store sales growth of 3.3 per cent, down from 8.7 per cent year-over-year due to a dip in traffic.
“Focus on FY26 outlook,” he said. “Key expectations: (1) 60–70 new stores (historical norm); (2) SSSG of 3.5–4.5 per cent (vs our estimate/consensus of 3.7 per cent) as consumers remain attracted to DOL’s compelling value proposition; (3) largely stable gross margin and SG&A rate; and (4) capex of $375-million vs $185-million in FY25 due to investments in a new logistics hub in western Canada. We forecast EPS of $4.51 (13 per cent year-over-year on same-week basis) vs consensus of $4.52. We estimate Dollarcity earnings will drive 200 basis points of the EPS growth.”
The analyst said his recent pricing survey shows competition “remains rational”, with Dollarama “maintaining its compelling value proposition.”
“On a price-per-unit basis, we estimate DOL is more than 30 per cent lower than WMT and AMZN (more than 40 per cent excluding food),” he explained. “We believe DOL’s compelling value and breadth of product offering should support continuing solid traffic, partly offset by moderating price increases. We estimate unit price inflation trended at 2 per cent in 4Q FY25, largely in line with recent quarters.”
Reiterating his “buy” rating, Mr. Li increased his target to $160 from $150. The average is $151.31.
“DOL trades at 34.0 times FY26 EPS,” he said. “Based on our $39/share DCF value for Dollarcity, the implied P/E on Canada is approximately 28 times. We believe it is supported by sustainable 10–11-per-cent EPS growth and investors’ preference for safety during economic uncertainty.”
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National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar is expecting to see “solid” food and drug trends when Metro Inc. (MRU-T) reports its second-quarter results on April 16, calling it “a defensive option in an uncertain backdrop.”
However, given the unpredictable macroeconomic conditions, he thinks the release will likely bring a cautious reaction for the Street.
“We believe MRU is a solid company which has delivered solid long-term returns over various economic cycles,” he said. “However, we see names which offer better comparative value. That said, given volatility in the current backdrop, it’s unsurprising for investors to seek out investments that have demonstrated track records.”
Mr. Shreedhar is currently projecting earnings per share of $1.05 for the grocery giant, up from 91 cents during the same period a year ago and 3 cents above the consensus forecast on the Street. He attributes that 15-per-cent year-over-year gain to “positive same-store sales growth, store network growth, slight gross margin expansion, slight operating leverage, share repurchases, lower interest expense and a lower tax rate.”
“Our projection of 3.8-per-cent food sssg reflects a benefit from the Christmas shift (2 days shifted from Q1 to Q2), and a continuation of trends from recent quarters, including strength in discount (albeit the sssg gap has been narrowing versus conventional), growth in transactions and a stable basket. Statistics Canada data suggests food inflation for Ontario/Quebec averaged 2.1 per cent in Q2/F25,” he said. “We project sssg of 5.1 per cent in pharmacy (6.5 per cent in Rx and 3.0 per cent in front-store). Our projection reflects elevated influenza trends, a benefit from the Christmas shift, and organic growth among other factors.
“Our review of peer commentary suggests: (i) A stable to narrowing sssg gap between discount and conventional, albeit consumer spending remains prudent and (ii) Cautious commentary from retailers regarding inflationary pressure due to tariffs, F/X and commodity input costs, among other factors.”
Maintaining a “sector perform” recommendation for Metro shares, Mr. Shreedhar increased his target to a high on the Street of $102 from $94. The average is $96.
“We value MRU at 11.5 times (from 11.0 times; reflects increased demand for stocks that have demonstrated historical consistency amid macro uncertainty) our F26/F27 EBITDA,” he explained. “The higher PT reflects a higher multiple and a roll-forward of our valuation period.”
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Seeing “challenging markets for an early-stage EV tech stock,” National Bank Financial analyst Rupert Merer downgraded Exro Technologies Inc. (EXRO-T) following the release of “soft” fourth-quarter and removal of its full-year guidance after the bell on Monday.
“We believe that EXRO has a unique and valuable technology offering, but it needs access to additional capital to survive to break-even,” he said. “With heightened liquidity risk and challenged markets, including tariff risk and reduced support for EV’s, we are moving our rating to Underperform [from Sector Perform].”
Shares of the Calgary-based company, whose technology improves the efficiency and power of electric motors for cars, trucks and motorcycles, plummeted 15.8 per cent on Tuesday after it reported quarterly sales of $6.7-million, falling below both Mr. Merer’s $10.7-million estimate and the Street’s forecast of $10.6-million with 43 electric propulsion units delivered to its OEM customers (below the analyst’s projection of 72 units).
“The company reports uncertain market conditions, with changing government regulations and threats of tariffs in the U.S.,” he said. “With lower revenues, gross margins were (53) per cent (we had 0 per cent). With challenging market conditions persisting into 2025E, EXRO has removed ‘25E guidance until further notice.”
While Mr. Merer thinks Exro continues to gain traction with big customers in both heavy and light duty vehicles, he emphasized its liquidity remains in focus, seeing funding from investors and customers needed.
“EXRO delivered e-propulsion systems to its two OEM customers in 2024 (Mack and Hino) and added a pilot program for a third OEM in December,” he said. “The company is progressing the development of its Coil DriverTM and plans to add it to all propulsion system deliveries by H2′25E. EXRO is also moving to prototype its Coil DriverTM with Stellantis and was awarded pilots with two other vehicle OEM’s in Q1 to test on electric and hybrid platforms. The programs should be funded by the customers, with prototype testing starting in Q2E. The new programs remain under NDA.”
“EXRO cut costs by $15-million annualized last year and followed up with a more than 20-per-cent headcount reduction in Q1. However, with the company burning $8-milion per quarter by our forecasts (with a draw-down in working capital), it needs access to capital. EXRO has been receiving non-dilutive financing from an existing investor, and we believe that this should continue for the foreseeable future. The company is evaluating other potential funding options with the assistance of third-party financial advisors, and we believe that this could include a privatization of the company.”
With his lower rating, Mr. Merer dropped his target for Exro shares to 20 cents from 50 cents. The average target is 43 cents.
Elsewhere, ATB Capital Markets’ Chris Murray lowered the company to “sector perform” from “speculative buy” with a target of 15 cents, falling from 55 cents.
“Management withdrew guidance for 2025, citing increasingly uncertain macro conditions, and did not host a conference call. Prior guidance called for $85-110-million in revenue in 2025 and assumed 600 SEA Drive deliveries,” said Mr. Murray. “The Company exited the quarter with $2.3-million in cash and confirmed that discussions concerning a potential financing with an existing investor remain ongoing. We have lowered ATB estimates and our price target to account for the slower-than-expected SEA Drive delivery ramp in 2025/2026 and limited visibility around commercialization. Given the increased uncertainty and near-term capital requirements, we are downgrading EXRO to Sector Perform.”
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Citi analyst Bryan Burgmeier thinks 2025 guidance for North American waste management companies remain secure and he’s maintaining a “positive view” on the industry, however he warns first-quarter results could see “lacklustre toplines on poor weather & potential softness in special waste streams due to macro uncertainty in March.”
“1Q results could have some downside risk from softer toplines due to poor weather as average U.S. temperatures were below freezing for 5 weeks in 1Q’25, up from average 2.4 weeks over the last 5 years. While 3 freezing weeks in January are likely captured in guides, cold weather in Feb (with above avg. rainfall) could present additional headwinds,” he said. “We forecast 50-100 basis points year-over-year volume impact from weather in 1Q. We also see reason for caution on special waste streams (largely soil from land clearing/real estate), particularly in March, due to broader macro & tariff uncertainty ahead of ‘Liberation Day’. GFL could benefit from its late 4Q’24 reporting date (2/25) as potentially soft 1Q volumes may be captured in guidance, while WM reported nearly 1 month earlier. Positively, Waste companies are reliable operators, frequently overcoming weather & volume-related impacts and ‘25 outlooks are unlikely to change.”
Mr. Burgmeier also emphasize waste stocks have outperformed thus far in 2025, rising 14.7 per cent versus a 4.2-per-cent decline in the S&P 500 “as defensive/domestic exposure & pricing power is in focus given tariff talk & broader macro risks.”
“The group is trading at a 26-per-cent premium to the S&P 500 on ‘26 FCFPS, and a 20-per-cent premium on ‘26 EBITDA, up from 21 per cent average and 9 per cent average, respectively, over the last 5 years. The elevated premium is primarily driven by RSG (currently trading up 4 times to 28 times ‘26 FCFPS) as we expect some investors have migrated from large-cap peers,” he said. “Despite rising valuation, RSG remains our top pick. In an unstable macro, RSG is leading the industry on execution having beaten or met cons. EBITDA est. 12 quarters in a row and is now positioned to lead the sector in FCF conversion percentage for the 2nd straight year. Into the print we like GFL as a late reporting date could be a benefit as 1Q guidance may have already contemplated bad weather in Feb. WM is attractively valued after seeing its discount vs. peers expand since acquiring Stericycle (currently 2 times discount on EBITDA vs. in-line over last 5-yrs). Potentially similar to RSG’s acquisition of US Ecology, we view quick synergy realization & ability to narrow the margin gap vs. Solid Waste as a potential catalyst for ‘25. WCN is looking more attractively valued but we remain on the sidelines until we have greater confidence in cost forecasts for Chiquita Canyon in ‘25/’26.”
He raised his target prices for the four industry stocks in his coverage universe, including GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL-N/GFL-T, “buy”) to US$56 from US$51 and Waste Connections Inc. (WCN-N/WCN-T, “neutral”) to US$218 from US$199. The averages are US$50.30 and $202.94, respectively.
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In other analyst actions:
* Scotia’s Mario Saric trimmed his American Hotel Income Properties REIT LP (HOT.UN-T) target to 70 cents from 80 cents with a “sector perform” rating. The average is 67 cents.
“We maintain our SP rating with notable downward estimate revisions primarily on lower margin expansion following a seasonally slow Q4 print,” said Mr. Saric. “Our target price falls 13 per cent, roughly consistent with the 9-per-cent unit price drop [Tuesday] (erasing recent gains). That said, we’re challenged to explain the immediate move, other than perhaps the market anticipating a more ‘catalystic’ quarter given the delayed reporting (results released essentially at the deadline). Net-net, we reiterate our positive view of AHIP’s successful debt refinancing program over the past 6-9 months, including executing on dispositions, with YTD unit repurchases ($0.9-million; 1.6 per cent of units outstanding) perhaps signaling early signs of a transition to offense. While AHIP noted direct exposure to U.S. Tariff policy is low (re: demand), we believe greater U.S. economic and inflation clarity is required for a positive AHIP unit price trajectory as solid RevPAR gains have been wiped out by margin erosion. Regarding distributions, we left our prior reintroduction in 2026 intact, which remains a key catalyst (good ‘signal’).”
* Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur reduced his Champion Iron Ltd. (CIA-T) target to $7.50 from $8 with an “outperform” rating after updating his financial forecast. The average is $7.41.
“We believe Champion offers investors good exposure to premium iron ore through its Bloom Lake asset, which is a long-life, lower-cost asset producing, high-grade iron ore concentrate (66-per-cent Fe) located in Quebec, Canada, a lower-risk jurisdiction,” he said. “In addition, we believe Champion has growth through Bloom Lake Phase 2 and the potential to upgrade/pelletize some production. Given Champion’s exposure to premium iron ore (which we believe should trade at a premium given structural changes in the iron ore industry), high-quality asset, growth potential, and low jurisdictional risk, we rate the shares Outperform.”
* CIBC’s Cosmos Chiu raised his Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA-T) target to $16.25 from $13.75, exceeding the $11.94 average, with an “outperformer” rating.
* TD Cowen’s Vince Valentini lowered his Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) target to $62 from $64 with a “buy” rating. The average is $53.50.
“Lower FCF estimates have led to a $2.00 reduction in our target price,” he said. “We had previously been of the view that big outflows of cash for working capital in 2024 were related to timing issues that would level off in 2025/2026.
“We now expect this use of cash to be more recurring, at least in the near-to-medium term, owing in part to increased customer adoption of zero interest device financing over four years on Rogers Bank credit cards. Differentiated marketing strategy in our view, but it comes at a cost to FCF and the balance sheet.”